Things Don't Look Good for Bush


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Roon
October 26, 2004, 08:04 PM
I've been watching this race as closely as anybody, and things are starting to break heavily for Kerry, as many pols thought might happen during the last week.

For the first time in following the LA Times compilation of major polls, Kerry takes the electoral college.

Starting to think the unthinkable... President Kerry.

Maybe it's time to re-visit that Rock River carbine.

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Standing Wolf
October 26, 2004, 08:06 PM
Buy the carbine, but don't worry about the election: America isn't dumb enough to elect that Kerry creature.

Bush by at least five points; Kerry and his assault lawyer minions to try to muck up the electoral process with law suits, anyway: that's my prediction.

Roon
October 26, 2004, 08:13 PM
Wolf,

How many beers is that? :D

Sindawe
October 26, 2004, 08:18 PM
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity.

Silver Bullet
October 26, 2004, 08:39 PM
Not according to Time's most recent poll:

http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,733715,00.html?cnn=yes

tc300mag1
October 26, 2004, 08:43 PM
Normally i guess pretty good on the elections but this time even though i want bush to win i cant say which way it will go to close

Daemon688
October 26, 2004, 08:48 PM
Polls fluctuate too much day to day. In 8 days, we will find out for sure who wins. Best thing that could happen is they both get the same number of electoral votes.

Roon
October 26, 2004, 09:12 PM
Not according to Time's most recent poll That was last Friday...

Today's Washington Post Tracking Poll (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/elections/2004/charting.html) is the first since it started to have Kerry break into 50%, ahead of Bush by 2 points.

Polls change daily, but this is not a good trend, if you go look at the day-to-day graph.

kbsrn
October 26, 2004, 09:16 PM
are biased against Bush. Look at realclearpolitics.com They give a real good break down. Bush is ahead and he has been gaining since the debates. Everyday something new Kerry lie comes to light, he is done. Besides who would vote for a man with a wife like that?

WilderBill
October 26, 2004, 09:34 PM
If you look at all the polls and average the diverse opinions, you find that Bush is somewhere between dead even and 5-6 points ahead.
If you only look at any one poll, you get the opinion of the select group that the pollsters choose to ask.

Fox will always show Bush ahead.
AP will always show sKerry ahead.

Depends on who you ask. :scrutiny:

bg
October 26, 2004, 09:38 PM
I use this site here for polls. It's pretty fair and easy to read. I need all the help
I can get far as the second part. I'm hoping the Pres wins, but Dad
always told me to hope for the best and expect the worse...That's paid off.
Ck it out.>
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/index.html

Roon
October 26, 2004, 09:42 PM
From realclearpolitics.com (RCP) :If Bush starts to pull away this week and can close strong building back toward his 5-7 point lead of September, that Electoral number could easily expand to 352 - 186.

A small tightening towards Kerry in the final days from where we are today would indicate a dead heat race, where many of those electoral scenarios mentioned above could very well come into play.

A strong break towards Kerry and most of these states would flip his direction leading to something like a 311 - 227 Kerry win.

The editorial boards of the LA Times and Washington Post are for Kerry, but these polls are completely independent from that, and the compilations are similar to RCP.

What a lot of these will come down to is GOTV - Get Out the Vote! Time to talk it up and take old shooters to the polls...

IRONFIST
October 26, 2004, 10:08 PM
I have been going to the site below daily for an overall glance at the electoral college on a changing, day-to-day basis. The operator is admittedly pro-kerry, but he doesn't seem to skew poll results in any way. The electoral college count has been flipping around daily, yesterday Bush, today Kerry, and tomorrow back to Bush. I also like that you can track individual state polls, and battleground states as well. Here is the link...

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Standing Wolf
October 27, 2004, 12:28 AM
I'm not a wagering man. If I were, I'd empty out all my bank and investment accounts, mortgage my house, borrow everything I could get my hands on, and bet it on Bush, which is to say: on the good sense of the American people.

Bush isn't much, but that Kerry creature is a shameless socialist parasite. We can tell.

DigMe
October 27, 2004, 12:45 AM
I believe the latest Zogby polls have been showing Bush increasing the lead.

brad cook

Shanghai McCoy
October 27, 2004, 12:50 AM
And when Bush loses in states like,ohhhh,Colorado,and then goes on to lose the election and join the ranks of "one term wonders"what will you say then Standing Wolf?
From what I see here in Ks Bush has little support in the population centers and that is where the votes are.Between the Liberals and Libertarians and other disgrunteled voters I don't see HOW Bush can win.
Old folks hate him,young folks hate him,union folks hate him....even 2nd Amendment supporters hate him.So WHO is going to vote for him?
(And we all know who is'nt....eh S W)
Back your bet with a vote sir.

gazpacho
October 27, 2004, 12:52 AM
I like the Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 (http://www.electoral-vote.com/). It's pretty good at summarizing the latest polls as they affect the Electoral College, and that's what really matters.

Current Prediction: Bush 285, Kerry 247, 270 needed to win.

Roon
October 27, 2004, 01:04 AM
I hate to throw cold water around here, but the Bush 285, Kerry 247 numbers are for current snapshot. The Predictive Final Result (http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html) is: Kerry 271 Bush 217.

This thing is WAY TOO CLOSE to relax.

Third_Rail
October 27, 2004, 01:05 AM
91 times, Standing Wolf.

I doubt you're wrong.

JoshM14
October 27, 2004, 01:19 AM
Heya Roon, nother poll looks the same taken at 9:15 pm PST:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Bush up....

RealGun
October 27, 2004, 06:24 AM
More and more lies and distortions are affecting polls, and that includes Congressional races. The Democratic message seems to take what are actually strengths and convert them into weaknesses using lies and distortions. The races seem to come down to a head count of the informed and savvy versus the ignorant and gullible. Clinton distorting the jobs issue is kind of the final blow. The Democrats are pandering to personal biases, never mind the real and appropriate role of government and what will really happen (or not) after the election. It's all very communist, if you ask me.

kbsrn
October 27, 2004, 10:09 AM
from a serious case of wishful thinking. Historically republicans always poll 5 to 7 points below what they finally get in an elections. So the worst of the polls show Bush one or two points behind, which means he is probably 3 to 5 points ahead.

Brett Bellmore
October 27, 2004, 10:17 AM
And when Bush loses in states like,ohhhh,Colorado,and then goes on to lose the election and join the ranks of "one term wonders"what will you say then Standing Wo

I know what *I'll* say: "Next time, come up with a less pathetic candidate!" I mean, these two are the best America has to offer? If that's really true, we're doomed.

RealGun
October 27, 2004, 11:00 AM
I know what *I'll* say: "Next time, come up with a less pathetic candidate!" I mean, these two are the best America has to offer? If that's really true, we're doomed.

Who but the wealthy or those with grandiose ambitions would invite that kind of scrutiny and abuse, along with the prospect of assassination and a lifelong relationship with the Secret Service for the entire family?

These are politicians more than the best and brightest. How they pick advisers and listen to them is where the real brain power comes in. Which party and general philosophy they serve has a lot to do with it too. When you pick a President, you definitely also pick a party agenda.

It is no different with Libertarians, for example. Badnarik is a token candidate. It is the party that is seeking office, and the votes will come no matter who exactly is the candidate.

Campaigns try to make it about candidates, but usually it is about parties. You see that with so many voting straight ticket and ignoring the need to be informed about issues and candidate specific points.

Kerry is an exception because he is so liberal...to extreme actually. It is disheartening seeing him get so much support in an election that should have been Democrats offering a throwaway candidate against an incumbent.

Carlos Cabeza
October 27, 2004, 12:58 PM
The retired church lady group is predicting a Bush presidency till '08.

RealGun
October 27, 2004, 01:03 PM
The retired church lady group is predicting a Bush presidency till '08.

Ha! A little prayer wouldn't hurt, if into that sort of thing.

Bartholomew Roberts
October 27, 2004, 01:16 PM
A couple of points...

One, Electoral-Vote.com is biased. They cherry-pick which polls they will use and which they will not on a weekly basis. They use polls they have not used previously and discard others they have accepted in the past. You can check this yourself by comparing recent polls published on RCP to polls used by EV.com.

Two, if the election were held today Bush would win. The race is close enough that a strong push by the Dems or apathy on the part of the Republican voters can change that; but right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically.

Three, there will be some attempt by one or both parties to publish a last minute news story that is damaging to the other candidate. Whether or not this swings the vote much remains to be seen.

Four, ABCNews exit polling of absentee/early voters shows Bush leading with 51% of the vote currently - if the this trend continues, it means that third party voters+undecided+Kerry voters are still not enough to take Kerry over the top.

It is close. Things COULD change a lot between now and Tuesday; but right now we are sitting in a good position and the race is close enough that gun owners alone could insure a Bush win just by going out and voting for Bush over Kerry.

MikeK
October 27, 2004, 02:27 PM
In 8 days, we will find out for sure who wins

I doubt it. I think this election will drag on for a while. I wish I had StandingWolf's confidence.

Dave R
October 27, 2004, 03:52 PM
My take on the polls--its still too close to call. Too many states could still swing either way at this point.


I think it'll come down to who gets out the vote on Tuesday. I hope the Bushies do it. I think Kerry would be very, very bad for the country.

Yooper
October 27, 2004, 04:31 PM
The value of pre-election polls is nill. Talk is cheap. What matters is the count on election day, nothing else.

thatguy
October 27, 2004, 06:49 PM
First of all, do not ever believe any opinion poll. It's too easily manipulated and that's exactly what they do. Secondly, never, ever believe ANYTHING the LA Times says. That rag is so biased against Republicans their polls ALWAYS show the Dem leading. Remember when Gray Davis was being recalled and the Times poll showed him surviving the recall? Then the Times poll showed Bustamonte leading the race to replace him. LA stands for Lying Always.

I predict Bush will carry 40 states and about 300 electoral votes with around 52% of the popular vote. If you want to know how desperate the Kerry camp is just look at all the dirty tricks they're pulling out of their... er, hats.

Ky Larry
October 27, 2004, 08:01 PM
Bush should hope for some more hanging chads to keep his sorry a$$ in office. Out of 260,000,000 Americans, can't we do better than these two geeks? Kind of makes me miss Ole Slick Willie. At least everybody had a job, gas was $.90 a gallon, there was a surplus in the treasury, and we weren't fighing an unwinnable war in the Middle East.

Rant mode off.

dance varmint
October 27, 2004, 08:07 PM
If you don't know which "poll" of "likely voters" to believe, disregard them and look at the price of Bush and Kerry futures in the Iowa Electronic Market. This is a real-money futures market at the University of Iowa College of Business.
See http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem
Currently Bush is trading at $0.53 to Kerry's $0.47. This market is open to investors nationwide and has existed for several years. I don't think too many people make ill-informed bets with real money.

bountyhunter
October 27, 2004, 08:36 PM
For the first time in following the LA Times compilation of major polls, Kerry takes the electoral college.

Starting to think the unthinkable... President Kerry.
Never happen. The Nader Cancer will bleed off enough demo votes to swing some of the close states.... just like 2000. And the Cheney Big Scare about how Kerry will trigger terrorist attacks will make the sheeple vote Bush even if they have to hold their noses when they do it.

MICHAEL T
October 27, 2004, 10:12 PM
Why can't Kerry win He## the American people elected Clinton not once but twice. Yes Kerry has a chance if we sit at home and don't vote or vote for a 3rd party .:)

Cosmoline
October 27, 2004, 10:13 PM
The nationwide polls mean nothing. Ignore them. The electoral college vote is all that matters. Basically the whole thing is a toss up and there's no way we'll know until after the fat lady sings next week. It's going to come down to a handful of voters in some swing state, no doubt.

davec
October 27, 2004, 10:31 PM
Four, ABCNews exit polling of absentee/early voters shows Bush leading with 51% of the vote currently - if the this trend continues, it means that third party voters+undecided+Kerry voters are still not enough to take Kerry over the top.

Meaningless. The only swing states that have early voting are Michigan and Flordia. All the others with the exception of California are almost certain Bush locks. The population distribution of voters in early voting states is massivly in Bush's favor....yet he only has a slight edge so far.

2nd Amendment
October 28, 2004, 01:41 AM
Kind of makes me miss Ole Slick Willie. At least everybody had a job, gas was $.90 a gallon, there was a surplus in the treasury, and we weren't fighing an unwinnable war in the Middle East.

Fascinating. The unemployment rate is the same now as then and dropping. There was never any surplus, merely a projected surplus based on creative book-work. And we were already at war, or have you forgotten the terrorist attacks Clinton simply chose to ignore?

Regardless, I'll tell you the best indicator: Bush's job approval. Everyone, including whats-his-name at electoral-vote.com have said that if those ratings were 50% or above and climbing in the last week of the election it is over for sKerry. Well the last ones I saw were at 53% and rising.

Also, look at the margin Kerry has in his states vs the margins Bush has in his. it's indicative of underlying strength of base. Bush leads all over the place by 15 to 30%. Kerry's leads are mostly in the 2 to 10% bracket and keep bouncing around. He's got support, but it is narrowly defined and in limited areas. His ONLY hope is to squeak out the EC because in the popular vote he's about to have his ass handed him on a plate.

Bartholomew Roberts
October 28, 2004, 10:00 AM
Meaningless. The only swing states that have early voting are Michigan and Flordia. All the others with the exception of California are almost certain Bush locks. The population distribution of voters in early voting states is massivly in Bush's favor....yet he only has a slight edge so far.

OK, let's look at the swing states Bush has to win in order to win the election. Bush can win with any combo of:

Florida and Ohio
Florida and Pennsylvania
Florida or Pennsylvania and any other two of Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota or Michigan

Kerry has to win the following swing states in order to beat Bush:

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Hawaii, Michigan, Pennsylvania AND either Florida or Ohio.

What is the likelihood that Kerry will win seven 50/50 coin tosses in a row? What is the likelihood that Bush wins the two or three he needs?

Gunowners can still easily lose this race since it is all about turnout in the battleground states; but right now it is our race to lose.

R.H. Lee
October 28, 2004, 10:07 AM
Even with a close but clear win for GWB, the dems are gonna claim victory and deploy much bad legal juju. I read somewhere they have 10,000 lawyers available, with 2000 already in Florida.

Lobotomy Boy
October 28, 2004, 03:31 PM
I'm just basing this on a gut feeling, but I think things might be swinging towards Kerry. He's proving to be a lot smarter than he looks, or at least a lot more shrewd. He's playing a good chess game with the electoral votes in the swing states, and I wouldn't rule out him pulling some kind of October surprise in the coming days, like producing some damning evidence of some sort of grand strategic failure in Iraq on Saturday or Sunday. Of course Bush could still pull Osama Bin Laden out from under his rock, too, but if that's his plan, he should get on the mother ASAP.

But otherwise I'm starting to see a reverse of the 2000 scenario, where Bush wins the popular vote but loses the electoral vote.

Roon
October 28, 2004, 06:26 PM
The L.A.Times has Bush up in Florida, 51% to Kerry 43%. If that holds, this is very encouraging.

bogie
October 28, 2004, 07:11 PM
You know what I find disturbing?

There's a thing that folks in the public relations/advertising business call the "Bandwagon Effect." That's when you have a concept (or in this case a candidate), and he gets support from a percentage of the people _just because they think that he'll win, and they want to be on the winning side_. No other reason.

There are folks posting on this forum who have come over from systems like the Democratic Underground. Their goal is to use as many "election tricks" as possible, from "vote against Bush," to "Kerry's really a sportsman," to "Kerry's going to win, so vote for him."

Sheesh.

jeff-10
October 28, 2004, 07:41 PM
Why can't Kerry win He## the American people elected Clinton not once but twice. Yes Kerry has a chance if we sit at home and don't vote or vote for a 3rd party .

What Kerry needs to win is an H. Ross Perot, like good old WIlliam Jefferson Clinton had. Forutnately no big spoilers have stepped forward.

RealGun
October 28, 2004, 08:57 PM
The L.A.Times has Bush up in Florida, 51% to Kerry 43%. If that holds, this is very encouraging.

That's funny, coming on the same day that Clinton campaigns in Florida.

tulsamal
October 28, 2004, 09:13 PM
Out of 260,000,000 Americans, can't we do better than these two geeks?

Your number is just a LITTLE bit off. There are 294,626.718 people living in the US right now. That's over 34 and a half million people MORE than 260 million! That's enough to populate the state of OK 11 times so it seems significant to me!

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Gregg

tulsamal
October 28, 2004, 09:18 PM
Kerry has to win the following swing states in order to beat Bush:

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Hawaii, Michigan, Pennsylvania AND either Florida or Ohio.

What is the likelihood that Kerry will win seven 50/50 coin tosses in a row? What is the likelihood that Bush wins the two or three he needs?

You left out the easiest way for Kerry to win. He can win BOTH Florida and Ohio. Then he can afford to lose Iowa, WI, Michigan, and New Mexico. He would still have 272 votes.

This is why those two states are REALLY getting all the attention! If they split them, anything can happen. If one candidate gets them both, he is almost certain to win.

Gregg

tulsamal
October 28, 2004, 09:31 PM
there was a surplus in the treasury

People are always so ready to give Clinton credit for this. I don't know why.

He was elected in 92. He had a Democratic majority in both the House and Senate for his first two years. They fought about health care and gays in the military and that's about it. Oh, and he nearly came to blows with Senator Kerrey (D) of Nebraska over the budget.

Then the GOP won both the House and Senate in 94. They took office in 95. The GOP couldn't totally change the direction of the Clinton Whitehouse but they could control spending. The economy was really heating up. (Which had nothing to do with who was President at that moment. Take a PolSc 1113 or Econ 101 class.) The amount of revenue coming in to the government kept going up. The GOP and Clinton couldn't agree on where to put the extra money. Clinton had several ideas but the GOP refused to go along. The "compromise" was to just hold on to the money and make a couple of payments on the national debt.

I give Clinton economic credit for not making things worse. Many Democratic presidents have done so. Clinton basically continued the economic policies of the previous 12 years of GOP Presidents. And then he ended up with a budget "in surplus" right there at the end because a GOP House and Senate demanded it. I don't think we can point out that surplus as a Clinton "success." Although the Democratic Party likes to do so. He was President for 8 years and the GOP controlled Congress for 6 of them!

It's like welfare reform. The GOP had to back Clinton into a corner before they could finally get him to go along with it. Then, when it worked and saved a whole bunch of money, he was happy to go out there and talk about the success of "his" plan. Politcians are like that. They hope most of us either didn't notice what was happening at the time or we have forgotten it.

Gregg

Bartholomew Roberts
October 28, 2004, 11:31 PM
The L.A.Times has Bush up in Florida, 51% to Kerry 43%. If that holds, this is very encouraging.

1. The LA Times is utterly unreliable as a polling organization.
2. There is no chance Bush went from a dead tie to 8 point lead
3. The same poll shows Bush down 6 in Ohio

tulsamal:
You left out the easiest way for Kerry to win. He can win BOTH Florida and Ohio. Then he can afford to lose Iowa, WI, Michigan, and New Mexico. He would still have 272 votes.

My count shows Kerry at 211 now. Florida and Ohio alone won't work form him unless he also wins Pennsylvania and any candidate that wins all three of those states will almost certainly carry IA, WI, MI, and NM. I figured that it was unlikely any candidate would pick up all 3 of the key states.

admar2
October 28, 2004, 11:57 PM
the wife and I have already done our part.


voted on Monday afternoon.


as far as polls go, I don't put much faith in any of them. I do however check out rasmussen and zogby from time to time.

Roon
October 29, 2004, 12:09 AM
The LA Times is utterly unreliable as a polling organization. CNN/USA Today/Gallup, with an overlapping time frame as the LA Times poll, gives similar numbers: Bush 51 Kerry 43 in Florida.right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically Somebody's smokin' something!

tulsamal
October 29, 2004, 12:36 AM
My count shows Kerry at 211 now. Florida and Ohio alone won't work form him unless he also wins Pennsylvania

It's _possible_ that Bush will win Pennsylvania but not very likely. It isn't even usually included as one of the "swing states." Kerry is screwed if Bush wins there. So I would agree that a Bush win in PA probably means a Bush win in OH and FL. But certainly Kerry could win PA but not OH and/or FL.

PA is actually one of the states in the breakout of that futures market. You can buy into Bush winning PA right now at 28. Considering a win would net you a $1, that's a low level of probability. (Although, to be fair, it did shoot up 5.5 points today for some reason. PA news story or poll?)

http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/

Gregg

mountainclmbr
October 29, 2004, 02:03 AM
I will vote early on Friday in CO. My vote goes to Bush. He is not perfect, but he is not a serial communist supporter like Kerry (N Vietnam, USSR, Cuba, Grenada, Nicaragua, El Salvador). I am too old for reeducation camp anyway.

Bartholomew Roberts
October 29, 2004, 09:49 AM
CNN/USA Today/Gallup, with an overlapping time frame as the LA Times poll, gives similar numbers: Bush 51 Kerry 43 in Florida.

That is good news then as Gallup IS a reliable polling organization. Although I am still skeptical about the swing of the vote - IIRC, Gallup doesn't weight their polls for partisan membership, so if they happen to get an unusually large chunk of Republicans it can cause a single poll to swing a little dramatically.


quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
right now; the odds favor Bush dramatically
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Somebody's smokin' something!

No, I'm just looking at the electoral vote. Bush only needs to win two-three of the right swing states and he wins the election. Kerry needs to win almost all of the swing states to win. Which of those is more likely? The odds favor Bush.

By the way, the President is going to be in Dallas, TX on November 1st. Last time I looked, Texas wasn't a swing state. The Republicans seem pretty confident about the outcome if they are pulling the President off the campaign trail to come down to Texas the day before the election.

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