Election Predictions


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patentmike
October 28, 2004, 08:35 AM
Polls, news, experts. Humbug.
Let's just call it now and see if THR can predict the results.

I'm thinking that the media outlets see it as a close race because of their bias, and because it's in their financial interests to keep the "story" exciting. Remember Mondale?

I say Bush 59%, Kerry 40%, Nader/other 1%

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davec
October 28, 2004, 09:05 AM
Kerry - 295
Bush - 243

http://davecrazy.squabble.org/map.JPG

Just like 1960, Kerry wins a very narrow popular vote, but a decent sized EC lead because of slim victories in Ohio and Flordia

Bartholomew Roberts
October 28, 2004, 10:05 AM
davec, whatever you are drinking save some for me to celebrate a Bush victory Tuesday ;)

Bush 51%
Kerry 48%

Bush takes both Florida and Ohio and probably 2-3 states that went Gore last time.

Senate Republicans pick up at least 3 seats
House Republicans pick up 5-6 seats

bcbr
October 28, 2004, 10:14 AM
skerry,no numbers.
Boston wins so does skerry someone told me that,the commies are to entreched , to much fraud and there is not enough real accountability for a real election. I went to vote last election early and our poll had no ballots at all.
Both sides are a joke,there seems to be no controlling authority,and I donot believe algore won the popular vote last time.
I read that the netwoks own the voting /counting system cbs,nbc,cnn,abc.
If they do any body they want gits in.

Ktulu
October 28, 2004, 10:18 AM
The election will not be as close as the media and the polls would have us believe. Bush will win by a good margin.

bcbr
October 28, 2004, 10:28 AM
I di not read every one and have heard there were changes to the vnrs,but to what ? here are some links and info
http://web.ask.com/web?q=voter+news+reporting+service&qsrc=0&o=0:scrutiny:

bcbr
October 28, 2004, 10:32 AM
Will not link .
Ask jeeves.com,then Voter news reporting service, then hit search.

Lone_Gunman
October 28, 2004, 10:49 AM
I think Bush is going to win by several points.

I don't think it will be as close as 2000

davek13
October 28, 2004, 11:12 AM
I'm going to predict Kerry.

It has become both acceptable and possible for the voting population to vote themselves compensation from the government. And don't think the pols don't play to that. Look how Bush has bragged about removing voters from the tax rolls.

Combine that "give me" attitude with the intense Bush-hating, the unchallenged lies by Kerry, and the complicity of the mass media in Kerry's campaign and I don't see how Bush is faring as well as he is.

I wish I were a little more optimistic and I would welcome a Bush victory, but I don't see it coming.

davek13 in Georgia

bobs1066
October 28, 2004, 11:20 AM
I'm thinking sKerry is going to go down in history as Dukakis Deux.

riverdog
October 28, 2004, 11:24 AM
Fortunately, the Red Sox won in 4 straight so the parties will be over by election day. The series will be old news by Tuesday -- sorta like explosives missing in Iraq :rolleyes: BFD Like the IAEA's little tags can stop Russian transport tropps from moving stuff to Syria. But I digress. Bush 52% -- Kerry <48% Some states will surpirse come Tuesday.

Sulaco
October 28, 2004, 11:35 AM
Bush because he will win Florida. Ohio and one or two other swing states will decide it, but I feel certain Ohio will go Bush.

71Commander
October 28, 2004, 11:38 AM
I have no hunch. So there. Somebody sooth my uneasiness.:evil:

Sergeant Bob
October 28, 2004, 11:40 AM
Bush, 54% to 46%.

Based on sales of their halloween masks by the same margins. They say it's right every time.

John Hicks
October 28, 2004, 11:50 AM
Of course it all comes down to if the Redskins win this weekend.

Win = Bush wins
Loss = Bush loses

Has happened since the 40's.

But since I don't want to link sports and politics any more, I'll wager:

Bush 52%, 290 EV
Kerry 47% 248 EV

House gets a bigger lead. Senate remains the same.

I take this on faith, and it's not a religious one. Faith that myself times the number of people who agree with me can make a difference, because what I believe is right.

I just hope I'm not too deluded :D

jh

Gary H
October 28, 2004, 11:56 AM
Stop with the percentages... They don't decide the election!

Come on folks. Lets show that we know how the system works.

Bush will win.. 287

Black Dragon
October 28, 2004, 12:47 PM
I think (Hope) Bush wins, BUT (S)Kerry and his crew will keep it in the court
system for the next two months with legal crap and recounts and whining
and everything else you can think of. I think you are going to see some
"people" problems in some of the more massive Dem cities like Chicago,
New York, maybe Detroit. I don't think it's going to be country wide. Why
do I think there are going to be "people" problems.

A friends neighbors, who have lived next door to each other for 8 years got
into a fist fight over the election. One was for (S)kerry and the other Bush.

oldfart
October 28, 2004, 12:49 PM
My only prediction: It'll be over in five days--- except for the lawsuits!

gunsmith
October 28, 2004, 12:56 PM
For a GW Bush victory,just like I did last time.
I hardly ask for anything other then Gods will, but it's important this year.

Rebar
October 28, 2004, 01:02 PM
The election will not be as close as the media and the polls would have us believe. Bush will win by a good margin.

I think Ktulu is right, I think the polls are biased is most cases, and the rest aren't getting the real story because people aren't picking up the phone for pollsters. Plus a lot of people have only cell phones now.

hillbilly
October 28, 2004, 01:16 PM
Bush will have at least 300 electoral college votes.

A whole passel of blue states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Hawaii, etc, will flip red this time.

hillbilly

R.H. Lee
October 28, 2004, 01:17 PM
I think it will be surprisingly in favor of George Bush, but that won't stop Kerry from claiming victory and attempting to sue his way into the Whitehouse.

tulsamal
October 28, 2004, 01:21 PM
The election will not be as close as the media and the polls would have us believe. Bush will win by a good margin.

I know it comforts a lot of you to think that the press is biased toward the liberals and therefore everything they say is wrong. But there are plenty of conservative and "pro-Bush" groups out there doing polling in the swing states and even they say it is virtually a dead heat in FL and OH. Bush has to win at least one. If he loses FL he can only win by stealing several midwestern Gore states.

Presidential election: too close to do anything but guess. My "gut feeling" is that Bush has too many enemies who will do anything to defeat him. Most of them don't even support Kerry himself but just want Bush gone. And that reminds ME of the 1980 election. The GOP had put forth RR who a lot of people thought was just too far to the right to be elected. But the last ten days of the campaign saw a growing rise of "we've had enough" against Carter. I suspect the constant barrage of bad news on the nightly news has cut into Bush's "middle of the road" voters. And I fear a majority of them are going to vote "against Bush." That's basically how Kerry has structured this campaign, as a referendum on the Bush Presidency. That might be all well and good if this was just a parlimentary vote of confidence but this time a vote against Bush means we get Kerry for President!

Forced to bet my own money straight up, I would lean toward Kerry. My hopes will be with Bush.

The Senate was one of my biggest worries a couple weeks ago. The polls were looking scary. I _really_ didn't want to give up the leadership there. Even more so if Kerry was going to win. But the polls are looking better now. I think the main thing to worry about now is a Kerry coattail effect. Will some of those "no more Bush" voters decide to vote against a Republican for Senate at the same time?

The House is fine.

Gregg

(Believe me, I hope I'm wrong! And some "current event" could happen between now and Tuesday that sways that middle 5% the other way.)

jefnvk
October 28, 2004, 01:41 PM
Bush, under 290.

Don't believe there will be a sweping landslide, but there will be a definite winner.

I do find interesting what I hear about a tie, though. Someone at Harvard (I think) came up with a 3.25% chance of a tie at 269. In that case, odds showed Bush would win president in the House, and Edwards would win VP in the senate. Imagine that.

tulsamal
October 28, 2004, 01:44 PM
In that case, odds showed Bush would win president in the House, and Edwards would win VP in the senate. Imagine that.

Since each state just gets one vote, obviously Bush would win by a massive amount. Big population states that favor Kerry like CA and NY would have as much say as Wyoming and Montana. And the GOP controls the House and Senate so I don't see how Edwards gets involved in this at all.

Gregg

KRAUTGUNNER
October 28, 2004, 01:48 PM
O.K. now, being a mere Kraut, I'll have the sheer brazenness to predict the outcome of next weeks elections. I hope the mods here won't ban me for that! :D

I predict that Dubya'll win with 286 Electoral Votes.

IMHO Bush will lose the following states: MN, WI, MI, PA and NH

Bush will win: AZ (10), NV (5), ID (4), MT (3), WY (3), UT (5), CO (9), ND (3), SD (3), NE (5), KS (6), OK (7), TX (34), LA (9), AR (6), MO (11), IA (7), MS (6), AL (9), GA (15), SC (8), NC (15), VA (13), WV (5), TN (11), KY (8), IN (11), OH (20), NM (5), AK (3) and FL (27).


At least I hope so, I
REEEAAAAAAAALLLLLLLLLYYYYYYYYYYY hope...................... :uhoh:

TheEgg
October 28, 2004, 02:08 PM
I envision a disaster with this election. Close votes in a number of swing states. Lawsuits from both sides dragging things out. Marches in the streets, some violence. All coming to a conclusion in the Supreme Court. The decision (whatever it is) is denounced by the losing side. More marches, and riots. Marshall law declared. The end of our society as we know it.

The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling! Oh my!

Then I wake up.

cropcirclewalker
October 28, 2004, 02:11 PM
Only I will have made the correct prediction till now.....

The two party duopoly wins.

:(

OF
October 28, 2004, 02:27 PM
Bush will win handily. There is no way that this country will step into the booth and pull the lever for Kerry at this point in our history. Polls all say Bush, but they will be off by several points.

It's not going to be close. Bush is going to destroy him and then shortly after Kerry will implode in some dramatic fashion, inside of a year his wife will divorce him and he'll move to France.

- Gabe

R.H. Lee
October 28, 2004, 02:30 PM
Bush is going to destroy him and then shortly after Kerry will implode in some dramatic fashion, inside of a year his wife will divorce him and he'll move to France.
You forgot 'grow a beard' and 'gain 50 lbs.' Then he'll move to France. :p

OF
October 28, 2004, 02:33 PM
Heheheh. :D

- Gabe

patentmike
October 28, 2004, 02:37 PM
A friends neighbors, who have lived next door to each other for 8 years got into a fist fight over the election. One was for (S)kerry and the other Bush.

Well, Who won ?!







__________
"The country doesn't know it yet, but it has created a monster."
- John Kerry before the Senate, 1971

Black Dragon
October 28, 2004, 02:47 PM
Patentmike
----------------------
Well, Who won ?!
----------------------

:rolleyes: :evil:
It was a draw! Someone called the cops when the two were yelling at
each other and they get there just after the fists started to fly. I don't
know if either was arrested for anything (can you be arrested for being
and idiot?:confused: )

I'm waiting to hear about fights at the polling locations between (S)Kerry
and Bush people.

Sam Adams
October 28, 2004, 03:09 PM
Bush by 4%-5% in the popular vote, and he'll get somewhere between 300 and 325 Electoral Votes. The Republican majority in the Senate will go up by 3 seats.

Oh, and the Dems and media will scream "FRAUD!" all over the place, with at least 3 serious Dem lawsuits going to the USSC, further endearing them to the American public. As a result, 2006 will be another good year for the Republicans.

Regarding guns, these next few years will be when we have to reverse the course of the gun control debate and eliminate existing laws.

Derek Zeanah
October 28, 2004, 03:18 PM
My prediction?

Lawsuits nationwide will really cast a shadow over the process. If it's close, I fear there are going to be some serious questions about the legitimacy of the winner. :(

Kerry v Bush? Who cares -- we lose either way. Bigger question is which party will dominate the legislature, and will we finally have gridlock again?

Monkeyleg
October 28, 2004, 07:39 PM
I'm not going to make a prediction, because nothing makes sense anymore.

If Kerry wins, it will be because of massive voter registration fraud which is going on right now, and the big-city politico's aren't doing a thing to stop it.

All of these new voter drives are resulting in ficticious people being registered to vote. As I've said in another thread, here in Milwaukee the city demanded roughly 960,000 ballots, far more than the number of eligible voters in the city, and almost three times the number of registered voters.

Now we have news that a software engineer ran a program to analyze the list of all voters registered to date. He's already found 5,600 people who recently registered with addresses that don't exist. The addresses are for parking lots or vacant land. The district attorney (worthless piece of Democrat carbon) and the county elections board (headed by a unqualified political appointee of the mayor) are going to "look into the matter." Nobody in Milwaukee has ever received more than a "tsk, tsk" when it comes to voter fraud.

One city (might be Philly, I forget) has more people registered to vote than there are residents of voting age.

In Philly the other day, all city employees were given the day off to go to a Kerry rally. When asked about the legality of the free vacation time, a city spokesman said that they don't really pay attention to the law that prohibits such activity.

In Madison, WI yesterday, the schools were closed so that students could go to the Kerry rally. (Think teachers' union involvement).

If Kerry wins, it will be because of a level of corruption that will far exceed what happened in 1960 with JFK backers. And I really hope that the Bush team will go after those people responsible with a vengeance.

Shanghai McCoy
October 28, 2004, 07:59 PM
Kerry will be the winner due to a large minority turnout.I believe that the minority vote has been largely underestimated and that the polls do not cover them hence the numbers coluld be very wrong.
Don't get me wrong.I DO NOT want Kerry to win.Just can't help but think that Bush is going to lose.....

Roon
October 28, 2004, 08:01 PM
I don't think it will be close, but I have no prediction on who will win.

Bush or Kerry, 300+ EV

Something is going to break. That's why I watch the trends so much, less so the day-to-day marks.

Monkeyleg
October 29, 2004, 12:23 AM
More on voter fraud: since April, the Milwaukee Public School system has been allowing students--grade school, junior high, high school--to take time off with credits to go out and register new voters. They go door to door. They have had pro-Kerry campaign literature with them.

Only today, less than five days before the election, did the superindendent of MPS say, "I'm shocked that illegal activity is taking place in the Milwaukee school system," and announce that the practice will not be allowed anymore.

Geeziz, Mr. Super. You're only about six months too late.

Grey54956
October 29, 2004, 12:44 AM
Hopefully, Bush.

Strangely, the only thing Bush has going against him is that some folks don't aggree with the war. Otherwise, he's the same Dubya from four years ago.

Bush is just as likeable now as he was then. Kerry is far less likeable that Gore.

E36M3
October 29, 2004, 01:07 AM
I predict that people are starting to see what a total POS Kerry is. He will handily get the POS vote which is a little less than half. Bush by 5%.

boltaction
October 29, 2004, 03:51 AM
Bush - 278

I have some links on the electoral college, projections, commentaries, debate transcripts, etc. at

http://www.individ.us

if anyone is interested.

Scroll to posts of 10/29, 10/26, 10/24, and 10/11, 10/10, for election stuff.

Boltaction
http://www.individ.us
A site for rugged anti-collectivists

mcole
October 29, 2004, 05:31 PM
bush wins by 15 points. mcole

Monkeyleg
October 29, 2004, 07:30 PM
Sorry to keep interjecting Wisconsin going's-on in this thread, but it seems the most suitable place.

After the Kerry rally in Madison, which drew tens of thousands of people thanks to Bruce Springsteen, the elections office was kept open 3 1/2 hours after official closing time so that those who were moved by Springsteen's call to action could go and get absentee ballots. This is a patent violation of the law but, so far, the Madison city officials are just shrugging the matter off.

jdkelly
October 29, 2004, 07:54 PM
A whole passel of blue states like Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Hawaii, etc, will flip red this time.-----HillBilly


My guess:

Iowa--yes
Wisconsin--no
Minnesota--yes
Hawaii--yes

Ohio--yes
Florida--yes

Bush wins


Respectfully,

jdkelly

Bartholomew Roberts
October 29, 2004, 08:16 PM
After the Kerry rally in Madison, which drew tens of thousands of people thanks to Bruce Springsteen, the elections office was kept open 3 1/2 hours after official closing time so that those who were moved by Springsteen's call to action could go and get absentee ballots. This is a patent violation of the law but, so far, the Madison city officials are just shrugging the matter off.

The clerk's office has already released a statement saying that voting during the day this event was held was actually less than the previous day. That is the problem with relying on the panem i circii crowd.

Nando Aqui
October 30, 2004, 12:36 AM
Do Your Job - Go Vote For Bush - and then relax...
From 29 Oct 2004 - WASHINGTON (AP) - Labor Department staff, analyzing statistics from private economists, report in an internal memo that President Bush is likely to do "much better" in Tuesday's election than the polls are predicting.
Full article at: << http://apnews.myway.com/article/20041029/D8619VG81.html >>

Alex

Yooper
October 30, 2004, 01:17 AM
The closeness of the Bush/Gore contest may inspire otherwise "stay at home" Republicans to get off their duffs and vote.

While Bush is not what I consider the ideal candidate, he is a proven commodity. No one seems sure what Kerry stands for, not even Kerry!

I predict a Bush victory, and by a better margin than the current polls indicate.

io333
October 30, 2004, 01:47 AM
I'm not going to make a prediction, because nothing makes sense anymore.



This is the only statement I have ever read during this entire election season that I completely agree with.


Everything is *so weird*.

roburado
October 30, 2004, 01:52 AM
I may just be preparing for the worst by thinking Kerry will triumph. I certainly feel he'll carry Michigan, but, perhaps, that might be due to my proximity to Detroit. I see a heck of a lot of Kerry bumper stickers, posters, etc. Not quite as many W suporters, it seems. Hopefully, they're just less vocal.

patentmike
October 30, 2004, 10:46 AM
This site has an interactive electoral map.

http://www.270towin.com/

Bush 284
Kerry 254

tyme
October 30, 2004, 10:48 AM
What is the point of guessing?

OF
October 30, 2004, 11:00 AM
To prepare to be able to gloat later if your're right. :D

Why else? ;)

- Gabe

patentmike
October 30, 2004, 11:52 AM
What is the point of guessing?
What GRD said.
Just for the heck of it.

Dave R
October 30, 2004, 01:07 PM
So, more here think Bush will win. But a few thing Kerry will win. Its still a tossup. There are too many states that are too close to call.

My prediction? Bush will win by a tiny margin in several states. Kerry and his team of attorneys will file suits like Gor only dreamed of, to get those slim margins overturned in those few states.

It'll be worse than 2000, and we won't know for months and it'll wind up in the Supreme Court again.

The Dems learned a lot from the last election, and they're going to build on that. More fraud, more legal maneuverings.

The only way the election is decided by Nov. 3 is if Bush's electoral vote margin is high enough that, even if you could flip the closest few states, he'd still win it.

Or if Bush's margin of victory in the closest states is "re-count proof." And I don't see that happening.

We're headed for a mess worse than 2000, because too many states are too close.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but that's the way I see it. I hope I'm wrong on Nov. 3.

Tharg
October 30, 2004, 07:53 PM
The above is probably right =(

Altho whoever posted the link to www.individ.us link - thanks - that was the first time i read something that talked about the electoral voting system and made sense(to me). =)

Also - www.270towin.com - cool site...

I looked at some other site that had all the current polls and stuff... clicked on each state and assigned winners and losers myself based on the numbers and thier avg's... had bush to win by not much.

I think more people are going to vote than are represented. And hope my thoughts prove true and bush wins by more than people think. After all - its one thing to blah blah on a poll - and completely another to click the vote...

heh

we'll see tho... what... 3 days from now? =)

J/Tharg!

bg
October 30, 2004, 08:15 PM
I know, forget the polls, but this did get my attention. My good ole Dad always told
me to think about things from the other side. My heart is for GWB, but my wallet
is leaning for Tomato Boy..Ck it out >>
http://www.electoral-vote.com/pred/index.html

Gary H
October 30, 2004, 09:00 PM
bg:

Your URL is devoid of reality. Those numbers will only happen if massive Democratic illegal/dead voter fraud takes place, or if on Sunday Bush invites Osama to dinner where OBL isn't the main course.

The Rabbi
October 30, 2004, 09:45 PM
Bush will win is my bottom line gut. And it will be by more than the polls suggest. I think he will win FL because even though the Dems will put on massive fraud in Dade county it will be overshadowed by military votes. The military guys are probably 4-1 for Bush altho I confess to not having seen any polls. Anyone have info on this?
This military vote will be the big story of this election.

I admit the prospect of 10,000 Democratic lawyers circling for the kill does not give me warm fuzzies. But I suspect the results will not warrant that.

SteelyDan
October 30, 2004, 10:09 PM
I think there's too much wishful thinking going on here. Zogby (a highly respected pollster) is predicting a Kerry victory. The others are saying too close to call. Reports today say Kerry is leading in Florida. A Monday "surprise" from the mainstream liberal media would not surprise me. Hold on to your hats, this is going to be very close, and there is no guarantee Bush will win.

roburado
October 31, 2004, 12:10 AM
I think you're right, SD, about the wishful thinking.:(

Atticus
October 31, 2004, 12:35 AM
Bush 288 - Kerry 250

http://www.imagestation.com/picture/sraid144/pa0410dd73fed52e14b3f44ea9aca9229/f672714f.jpg

http://www.imagestation.com/picture/sraid144/pc0725bb0aeb70accf02006b0f7409dfb/f6726cda.jpg

http://www.imagestation.com/picture/sraid144/p1d624991ff97b7c8cfab602a18120391/f6726cd4.jpg

bg
October 31, 2004, 01:09 AM
Your URL is devoid of reality. Those numbers will only happen if massive Democratic illegal/dead voter fraud takes place, or if on Sunday Bush invites Osama to dinner where OBL isn't the main course. From Gary H.

I hope yer right Gary. I no more want to see Tomato Boy at 1600 Penn than any other
here. Time will tell and I don't think itll be resolved on the 2nd of Nov. It's too big a
deal, with the stakes high on both fronts..
Bob

RocketMan
October 31, 2004, 01:12 AM
As I've said before, Bush will be a one termer like his father.
I don't like it, but that's the way it will be.
Standing Wolf notwithstanding. :p

I wouldn't be surprised if Bush won by a very slim, non-recount proof margin. Kerry's attack lawyers will then manage to sue him into the Whitehouse as I don't see the USSC doing Bush a second favor.
But most likely Kerry will take the popular and the electoral votes.

71Commander
October 31, 2004, 05:07 AM
Bg I think your poll was DU'ed. Here is the same page with the same date.

Bush 280- Kerry 243 from 10-30

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v11/tucker13/oct30.png

Bartholomew Roberts
October 31, 2004, 10:49 AM
I think there's too much wishful thinking going on here. Zogby (a highly respected pollster) is predicting a Kerry victory.

1) Zogby is not predicting a Kerry victory. Last time I saw him (Friday) he was predicting a Bush victory, though he had predicted a Kerry victory during May of this year - something no professional pollster would ever do.

2) Zogby is not highly respected and in fact, none of his methodology is supported by professional polling organizations.

3) In 2002, Zogby ran the second largest number of polls and compiled the worst predictive record of any polling organization (29% of races called for the wrong candidate). For comparison, Mason-Dixon did the best (most races and only 1.3% called wrong and the average pollster called 13% wrong.

For some more detail on why Zogby is not considered reliable by professionals (and why neither major party uses him for internal results) see:
http://jaycost.blogspot.com/

Nick_90
October 31, 2004, 11:59 AM
I believe that Bush will win a razor-thin electoral college majority. However, do some of you remember what the polls and pundits were saying in 84, two days before President Reagan's landslide reelection? Were some people, or some polls, predicting a Mondale victory? (I myself cannot remember, I was 8 years old at the time...)

The Rabbi
October 31, 2004, 12:02 PM
TennTucker:
I have checked that site every day for probably a week. Every day the numbers change radically. Today, for the first time in 2 weeks he is predicting a Kerry victory. It will depend on FL and Ohio. I would not bet money on a Kerry victory but I wouldnt be downright shocked by one either.

rbrowning
October 31, 2004, 12:39 PM
I sure hope that Bush wins. I registered to vote for the first time in 46 years. So did my wife, two brothers and a friend.

Yesterday I found out that my brother is voting for Kerry. I was dumbfounded and I am still in shock that someone that is a lifetime hunter, and appeared reasonably intelligent could vote for him. But he has a son in the Marines and he is under the impression that Kerry will get us out of Iraq quickly and his son will remain stateside. He is an unemployed union millwright that has had a rough time since 9/11. As if the economic balloon wasn't over-inflated and long past due to be deflated before Osama popped it.

I can't understand his decision at all, I am just glad that there are four new voters for Bush and only one for Kerry.

2nd Amendment
October 31, 2004, 01:43 PM
I believe that Bush will win a razor-thin electoral college majority. However, do some of you remember what the polls and pundits were saying in 84, two days before President Reagan's landslide reelection? Were some people, or some polls, predicting a Mondale victory? (I myself cannot remember, I was 8 years old at the time...)

I remember the media was insisting it was a close election. I can't remember for certain about the polls but it seems to me they were saying it was reasonably close. At least a worthy fight. I don't think anyone but the most die-hard extremists were predicting a Mondull victory, though.

OTOH, NOBODY saw the trainwreck that turned out to be Mondale's defeat coming. Nothing "official" indicated it. But I also do remember that "word on the street" back then sounded a lot like now... So, again, I'll say Bush with a decisive popular vote win. But we'll hold our breath for the EC and what the corrupt Dems Party is willing to do to install itself in power.

bg
October 31, 2004, 04:10 PM
I got this over the wire. This election is gonna be a real circus..
http://www.yahoo.com/s/218443

captain obvious
October 31, 2004, 04:59 PM
The last redskins home game prior to the election has predicted the result in every election since the 1930s - if the skins win, the incumbent stays.


The skins are down 20-12 - but rallying....

Surefire
October 31, 2004, 05:24 PM
I dislike both candidates......


But I trust Kerry far less. Kerry comes off to me as a pure socialist bordering on communist.


I hope Bush wins. Take the lesser of two evils.


However, with all the Bush haters in this country, my heart tells me that Kerry will win by a pretty big margin.

SB88LX
October 31, 2004, 06:13 PM
Skins lost, maybe this year will be different, sox broke their curse, hopefully the incumbent can break this one? Vote Republican.

riverdog
October 31, 2004, 06:56 PM
I hate making predictions, but it looks to me like Bush 300+ in the Electoral College. Just a WAG.

mcole
October 31, 2004, 09:52 PM
zogby is a muslim. you did know that? mcole

Ohen Cepel
October 31, 2004, 09:55 PM
I think the media is hyping it just because they can.
No one wants to watch a SuperBowl if it's 48-0 at the half.

Therefore, I predict Bush by 10%.

My 2 cents.

Moparmike
October 31, 2004, 10:24 PM
I have had the sick feeling that Kerry would be POTUS ever since he was nominated in March. I dont want it to happen, but its just a feeling I have.

Sadly, I will have to swallow my principles and vote Bush this year. I was really hoping my first POTUS election would be one that I could actually vote for the best person for the job...

SteelyDan
October 31, 2004, 10:27 PM
Just for the record, here's a link to the Zogby story:

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2004/10/29/83336.shtml

The story also notes that Zogby was the only one of the major pollsters to predict a Gore victory in the popular vote in 2000, and his extremely close prediction in 1996.

2nd Amendment
October 31, 2004, 10:46 PM
Thing is, aren't those really the only two true Zogby scores? Otherwise he's been off far more often and by far wider margins than most other pollsters, hasn't he?

SteelyDan
October 31, 2004, 11:49 PM
2nd Amendment, that could well be true, I just don't know.

More bad news, I noticed the latest results at http://www.electoral-vote.com/ are showing Kerry 283, Bush 246. Considering where they were 24 hours ago, it's not trending the right way. Still, who knows, we'll find out sometime in the next month or so...

Surefire
November 1, 2004, 01:01 AM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Kerry 283, Bush 246

Looks like terrible news the results do. Kerry's finishing strong so far. We are just down to under 2 days, Bush better get some ground back or we are stuck with 4-8 years of Kerry.

Mark in California
November 1, 2004, 02:24 AM
I beleave Bush will win by more that last time. If his oppostion should sue, I think it will not work out well, just burn up the remaining to to cast votes to the Electorial College

After all the bad press in 2000, I think the courts will go out of their way to stay out of the election process. They will schedule hearings, but it will be on their terms and calendar. Somtime in around December 17, 2004 ALL electoral votes must be in. If not they can be challenged by any Congressman or Senator. One challenge and they will not be counted. The Electoral College will not return a winner. The selection will be made by the Congress. The election is by state, one state one vote, and not by delegation numbers.

The Courts will after that dismiss all challenges because the popular vote / Electorial College will no longer be in line to choose the President or Vice President. It will depend on the Congress.

Roon
November 1, 2004, 02:34 AM
zogby is a muslim. you did know that? mcole,

Zogby is a Christian (Catholic), of Lebanese descent, as is Ralph Nader.

And why would being Muslim make a difference?

Zogby is not highly respected and in fact, none of his methodology is supported by professional polling organizations.Gotta disagree strongly here. Zogby is very highly respected, although he does use controversial methods, and is considered somewhat of a maverick in the polling business. He was very accurate during the last two presidential elections. He personally is a lefty, but hailed by Limbaugh and O'Reilly, and Rupert Murdoch and The Cato Institute, as examples, are clients. Right now he considers the race dead even. We'll see on Wednesday!

Ryan in the House
November 1, 2004, 03:04 AM
I have a bad feeling Kerry is going to win.

Then again, I'm not really 100% supportive of Bush, either. While him and I share a lot of political philosophies and ideas, he does not communicate them like I would if I was president.

Bartholomew Roberts
November 1, 2004, 10:12 AM
Gotta disagree strongly here. Zogby is very highly respected, although he does use controversial methods, and is considered somewhat of a maverick in the polling business.

Nobody whose livelihood is based on accurate polling information uses Zogby. Neither the Democrats or Republicans use him for internal polling.

People whose livelihood is based on skewing polls to sell newspapers, get listeners, etc. find Zogby very useful because his methods are more in keeping with what they need. A blowout doesn't sell newspapers; but a 50/50 race does. Zogby is unafraid to tweak results to give his customers what they want.

The Rabbi
November 1, 2004, 01:10 PM
http://www.electoral-vote.com/


He has an interesting page on the website today, a day he is predicting a massive Kerry victory btw. He has a whole personal page on who he is. The short answer is he an American living in Holland who is also working (or hoping to work for) the Democratic party. He is deeply concerned about how the rest of the world views us, and quotes various Brit commentators o how we're worse than Nazis etc etc yaddayaddayaddawhotheheckcares.

Leadership is always lonely. I dont see the Brits, French, Germans, UN etc doing any better or more effective job. I see them doing much worse.

Bartholomew Roberts
November 1, 2004, 01:32 PM
From the internals of the latest Pew Research poll from October 31 (http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=232):

"As in previous polls, Bush's supporters are much more enthusiastic than those backing Kerry. In fact, Bush registers a higher percentage of strong supporters in the final weekend of the campaign than any candidate since former President Ronald Reagan in 1984. Fully 39% of likely voters support Bush strongly, while 9% back him only moderately. "

However, the only poll that matters is tomorrow. Make sure you make that one count.

Roon
November 1, 2004, 02:21 PM
This is where I'm predicting...

Bush 296 Kerry 242

Read 'em and weep:

http://www.albaedit.com/TFL/Electors.jpg


Edit: It's all over, I missed one state, MN, which went to Kerry.

71Commander
November 1, 2004, 02:31 PM
Florida is the key.

JPL
November 1, 2004, 02:35 PM
Bush MUST take both Ohio and Florida to win the election. If he loses one, my prediction is President Kerry.

R.H. Lee
November 1, 2004, 02:36 PM
Florida is the key Maybe. Florida and Ohio.

"No Republican has won the White House without taking Ohio, and only two Democrats have done so in the past 100 years."

http://www.wqad.com/Global/story.asp?S=2505405

HankB
November 1, 2004, 03:19 PM
I really, really, really hope I'm wrong, but . . .

President Elect Kerry (1,000,000 bogus ballots can't be wrong)

followed by

Supreme Court Chief Justice Hillary Clinton

Attorney General Charles Schumer

bogie
November 1, 2004, 03:30 PM
I think that website is one of the things that's targeting the "bandwagon" voters - the people who want to say "I voted for the winner," and who will vote for whoever seems to be the projected winner.

Believe it or not, there's a sizable percentage of folks who do this.

71Commander
November 1, 2004, 03:35 PM
All these bad case sceneraios are indeed bleak, but if it to be, we must maintain control of the Senate. It's possible to have a 53/47 lead and be in control of the house as well.

Let's just gridlock the country for 4 years.:banghead: :fire:

The Rabbi
November 1, 2004, 03:49 PM
Unfortunately Republicans with a majority will almost always lose to Democrats even with a minority. Republicans want to be liked and dont like to see Dan Rather say nasty things about them. Dems know he wont, no matter what they do. No Republican would have dreamed up filibustering Clinton's judicial appointees.

R.H. Lee
November 1, 2004, 04:17 PM
Here's another poll Rush said was the most accurate in 2000:

http://www.mason-dixon.com/latest.cfm

muleshoe
November 1, 2004, 04:17 PM
I'd like to be as optimistic as some of you guys.

I'm looking for Kerry to take 290-300 electoral votes. Remember, we are talking about a country that elected Klinton.........twice.


The good news is...Both those clowns will be out of the Senate, and hopefully Hilary doesn't run in '08.


I'm muleshoe, and I appove of this message.



:D

Bartholomew Roberts
November 1, 2004, 05:19 PM
I'm looking for Kerry to take 290-300 electoral votes. Remember, we are talking about a country that elected Klinton.........twice.

True; but both times Clinton failed to get a majority of the popular vote and both times, Perot ran for election (receiving 18.87% of the vote in 1992 and 8.4% of the vote in 1996).

This time, there really is no serious thrid party candidate of that level. Even Nader only received 2.74% in 2000 and he will not get that much this time.

Gusgus
November 1, 2004, 05:34 PM
Folks,
Don't let the weekend polls get you down. Polls taken on Friday and Saturday nights almost always favor Democrats. Pollsters are also using tricks like assuming that most of the "undecided" will go for Kerry, and reflecting those numbers in their totals. This is all an effort to get the wishy washy Koolaid drinkers who want to be on the "winning team" to vote for Kerry.

Bush will win by a respectable margin, and at least 300 electoral votes. Heck, even the people's republic of Jersey is in play, and we're doing everything possible to place it in Bush's column.

Don’t let the media liars dissuade you. Get out the vote for Bush like your very life depends on it. It very well may.

Dave R
November 1, 2004, 07:55 PM
Also, please remember...

If Kerry DOES win, the pollsters are still saying the Republicans with control both House (pickup 1-3) and more important, the Senate (pickup 2-3).

That limits the damage Kerry can do, somewhat...

OF
November 2, 2004, 09:57 AM
Clinton was elected by Ross Perot. Without Ross, he would have lost both elections.

- Gabe

TarpleyG
November 2, 2004, 10:25 AM
I am really beginning to worry today for the first time. I know way more people voting for Kerry than voting for Bush--at least at work. Probably 70% to 30%. Sad really as these are all educated people for the most part. They don't even like Kerry, they just hate Bush. Where did all this anger against Bush come from? Did people hate his dad that much too? I don't recall.

Anyway, if praying helps I am doing it in my own way as we speak. With Kerry in office, things could get ugly for us--all of us.

Greg

Roon
November 2, 2004, 10:57 AM
Sad really as these are all educated people The Democratic Party is seen by many in our culture as the party to belong to if one is an intellectual, or strives to be. Most colleges and universities are, by far, considered Democratic territories, and to vote Republican is seen by many as being lower class, rough, uneducated.

Obviously, this has loads of exceptions, but for the most part, the sterotype goes that if you care for people and are "well" educated, you are a Democrat, if you care for power and wealth, you are a Republican. After Reagan, the surge of working class moving to the Republican Party, Reagan Democrats, only buttressed the "intellectual" home for the Dems.

Hence, the "elitist" term now goes to the Dems, where it once lived with the business-oriented GOP. Many people vote their self-image, what they want to be.

HankB
November 2, 2004, 12:22 PM
They don't even like Kerry, they just hate Bush. Where did all this anger against Bush come from? That's what I've seen, too. I believe the hate is generated by the media, which, by and large, has even stopped PRETENDING to be fair and impartial.

Last night (11/01) they had CNN on the TVs at the gym. While I was running on the treadmill, CNN ran a story about how John Kerry was a typical kid in the 60's, and was part of a high school garage band, and how he played bass guitar even though it wasn't glamorous just to help the band, he was so good, so thoughtful, such a great kid . . . :barf:

It was just a :cuss: Kerry commercial, just as blatantly an advertisement as we'd see back in the '60s with the hosts of TV programs plugging products on the air.

71Commander
November 2, 2004, 01:18 PM
Latest and last poll results.:uhoh:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

OF
November 2, 2004, 02:11 PM
Fear not.

http://realclearpolitics.com/polls.html

RCP Average 10/27-11/1 48.9% 47.4% 0.9% Bush +1.5
Marist (1026 LV) 11/1 49% 50% 0% Kerry +1
GW/Battleground (1000 LV) 10/31-11/1 50% 46% 0% Bush +4
TIPP (1041 LV) 10/30-11/1 50.1% 48.0% 1.1% Bush +2.1
CBS News (939 LV) 10/29-11/1 49% 47% 1% Bush +2
Harris (1509 LV) 10/29-11/1 49% 48% 2% Bush +1
FOX News (1200 LV) 10/30-10/31 46% 48% 1% Kerry +2
Reuters/Zogby (1208 LV) 10/29-10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
CNN/USA/Gallup(1573 LV)* 10/29-10/31 49% 49% 1% TIE
NBC/WSJ (1014 LV) 10/29-10/31 48% 47% 1% Bush +1
ABC/Wash Post (2904 LV)** 10/28-10/31 49% 48% 0% Bush +1
ARG (1258 LV) 10/28-10/30 48% 48% 1% TIE
CBS/NY Times (643 LV) 10/28-10/30 49% 46% 1% Bush +3
Pew Research (1925 LV) 10/27-10/30 51% 48% 1% Bush +3
Newsweek (882 LV) 10/27-10/29 50% 44% 1% Bush +6

Bush up by 4 points in FL and 2 in OH...

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/6363705/


Kerry is always either even, or behind. It would be a final-hour miracle if Kerry won.

The electoral-vote site is heavily partisan, ignore that site.

realclearpolitics.com is good, as is mason-dixon.com is supposed to be the most accurate, historically, although I don't see that they release their polls publicly.

- Gabe

Russ
November 2, 2004, 02:15 PM
Bush wins. 279. He wins Ohio and Florida. Game over. NM and WI and IA would be a nice bonus but not counting on them.

R.H. Lee
November 2, 2004, 02:15 PM
Go Nader! :D

R.H. Lee
November 2, 2004, 02:36 PM
I think we can expect ABCNBCCBSCNN to call a winner about 1 minute after the polls close here in Calif 8:00 pm (11:00 Eastern). Let the games begin........

OF
November 2, 2004, 03:00 PM
I think there should be a federal law barring exit polling and all media pronouncements on election results in any state (even those that are done voting) until after the last poll in the state in the union closes...which is in HI, I think.

- Gabe

Bartholomew Roberts
November 2, 2004, 03:23 PM
Ignore the poll results. The only poll that counts is going down right now. make sure you take part in it.

71Commander
November 2, 2004, 03:30 PM
Ignore the poll results. The only poll that counts is going down right now. make sure you take part in it.

I'm in total agreement, but the polls make for good and lively conversation.

muleshoe
November 2, 2004, 04:08 PM
It's funny, but I remember hearing a few months back when it was still up in the air that Missouri was the state that went with the winner for the past couple thousand years or so. Ever since it appeared as though Bush has had MO won, nary a word. I do hope that indicator stays true this time around.

Me and the wife did our part earlier this morning for Iowa. We'll see. As in a lot of states, the rural parts of the state goes Rep., the clowns uptown are a different story. They are probably unhappy because they gotta live all bunched up next to each other...no room to breath I reckon.

I'm muleshoe, and I approve of this message.

Surefire
November 2, 2004, 05:10 PM
New Jersey is apparently tied right now. Wouldn't it be ironic if New Jersey, which many who live there call a Socialist cesspool, ends up a Bush win and changes the election!

I certainly don't think New Jersey will end up siding for Bush, but its interesting that some polls show the state tied.

riverdog
November 2, 2004, 05:14 PM
We also did our part this morning. Even tho' we live in California, we were both raised on farms and voted with the rural parts of the country. It's important to vote for Republicans in the local elections because one of those guys may eventually run for President, so we voted a straight ticket.

Regardless, I expect to be on the losing side of our Senate race as the incumbant is way too favored in the liberal urban centers (LA and SF). While my popular vote will go to the guy in the white cowboy hat, California's electoral college votes will go the the wind surfing Red Sox fan in the baseball cap sitting at the local waffle house. I expect my vote to be on the winning side of that election -- 4 more years. If not, I have enough ammo to last the rest of my life, and more rifles, pistols and shotguns than one of President Kerry-Heinz's honest law abiding subjects has a privilege to own. :rolleyes: Buy it now if you don't roll your own.

I'm expecting President Bush to receive >290 electoral college votes, hopefully a bit over 300.

Bartholomew Roberts
November 3, 2004, 09:55 AM
Bush 51%
Kerry 48%

Bush takes both Florida and Ohio and probably 2-3 states that went Gore last time.

Senate Republicans pick up at least 3 seats
House Republicans pick up 5-6 seats

Not too bad, eh?

Intune
November 3, 2004, 10:04 AM
Not too shabby at all. The Swift Boat Vets served their country well once again.

tyme
November 3, 2004, 10:23 AM
I think there should be a federal law barring exit polling and all media pronouncements on election results in any state (even those that are done voting) until after the last poll in the state in the union closes...which is in HI, I think.
I agree, except that ban should extend until 10am eastern the following day, or even until each state's vote is certified.

The vote counters should count all night, and in the morning when there are reasonably complete vote counts, media could start discussion and candidates could decide what to do. It's not good when people try to make important decisions at midnight or 3am after a long day.

Unfortunately, that's a state issue; the only government with the power to prohibit a state official from disclosing statewide election results is that state's government.

Roon
November 3, 2004, 12:42 PM
Well, it isn't good to gloat, but I'm sure happy we won!!

And, looking at our various predictions, I'm happy I was off by only one state, MN. (OK, just a little gloat.) .:cool:

It's a success for gunowners.

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