It's early but not looking to good


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Nazirite
November 2, 2004, 02:55 PM
AZ CO LA MI WI PA OH FL MI NM MN WI IA NH
Kerry 45 48 42 51 52 60 52 51 51 50 58 52 49 57
Bush 55 51 57 48 48 40 48 48 47 48 40 43 49 41

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Nathanael_Greene
November 2, 2004, 02:58 PM
Way, way too early to be panicking.

If it makes you feel any better, the stock market is up, predicting a Bush victory.

No4Mk1
November 2, 2004, 03:00 PM
Your table is a little difficult to decipher, but if I read it correctly it shows Kerry with a 20 point lead in PA. I find this hard to believe (though I'm willing to be wrong...) in a state that has been a toss-up for weeks.

What is your data source?

Nazirite
November 2, 2004, 03:03 PM
I pulled it off the Drudge Report but they pulled the table down after a few minutes, might be bogus. Sorry folks, I just have a bad feeling and I hope I’m very wrong.

Harry Tuttle
November 2, 2004, 03:05 PM
yesterdays Zogby is quite interesting:
http://www.thehighroad.org/attachment.php?s=&postid=1330589
http://www.zogby.com/

Silver Bullet
November 2, 2004, 03:15 PM
Over on Free Republic they're saying that Drudge and Hannity are both reporting that the exit pollees were 59% women.

Given that, I think Bush is doing fine since he previously polled much higher with men.

Indy7373
November 2, 2004, 03:18 PM
Are exit polls any good? Wait til the final count.

halvey
November 2, 2004, 03:20 PM
I don't buy Zogby's BS poll. Kerry wins CO, NM, MN, WI and IA? Whatever.

Kaylee
November 2, 2004, 03:23 PM
For what it's worth, I actually had a chance to participate in an exit poll this morning. College-age girl behind a table with a box and a stack of questionaires. It was *entirely* self-selecting -- no attempt at obtaining a random sample. You wanted to answer, you walked up and did so. You didn't, you walked right by. Makes me wonder why so many folks seem to trust them in the aggregate. :confused:


ANYHOW.. the chick sure gave me a dirty look when she saw my answers as I checked 'em off. :D

Leatherneck
November 2, 2004, 03:26 PM
No freaking way will Virginia tie. Even the Kerry campaign recognized that a month ago and pulled their ads. This is a big, rural state if you take the trouble to exit NoVA. :rolleyes:

TC
TFL Survivor

Bartholomew Roberts
November 2, 2004, 03:32 PM
Here is a good primer on exit polling and why you shouldn't pay much attention to those numbers until the polls have closed:
http://www.ar15.com/forums/topic.html?b=1&f=5&t=290445

Finally, let's not forget the 2000 election. It is estimated that Republicans lost as many as 10,000 votes when networks called the election before the polls had closed in the western part of the state.

No matter what you are hearing from the media, get out and vote! Bush up by 20? Doesn't matter - go vote. Bush down by 20? Doesn't matter - go vote. Giant green aliens attacking the polls? Lock and load; but go vote.

LiquidTension
November 2, 2004, 03:33 PM
At the risk of sounding politically incorrect :rolleyes: ... could it be that more conservatives are still at work while the "I deserve a handout and shouldn't have to work" types are out voting :scrutiny:

I'm not even gonna start paying attention until 7pm.

No4Mk1
November 2, 2004, 03:33 PM
No freaking way will Virginia tie.

Leatherneck, your honor is on the line! If Virginia falls to the opposition we will officially revoke your membership as a Southern state..... We almost had to revoke Florida last time.... don't let it happen. I'm holding you personally responsible!:scrutiny:

;) :neener:

rl2669
November 2, 2004, 03:36 PM
Market's down, they're spooked too.

DonP
November 2, 2004, 03:39 PM
Remember that after the 2000 insanity and the 2002 screw ups, all the major exit polls were dropped by the networks.

Moveon.org is actually running their own "exit polls" in swing states without identifying who they are. I'm sure I'd trust Greorge Soros' people to give me a fair and balanced view of the process.

Don't forget that the networks calling Florida for Gore early kept some of the "Panhandle Republicans", like my Uncle Bob, home. Boy was he PO'd the next day.

This year he and my dad voted early. He said there wasn't a Kerry sign in their whole housing development in Panama City.

halvey
November 2, 2004, 03:40 PM
:confused:
Dow is down 17
Nasdaq is up 3

oil is under $50 a barrel

Sistema1927
November 2, 2004, 03:42 PM
Don't forget that many states now allow either early voting, or unrestricted absentee voting, or both.

As a result, "exit" polls have become almost meaningless. There was nobody standing around polling me after I voted two weeks ago, and there is no one standing by the mailbox polling the absentee voters. In my county a full 50% voted early or by absentee.

Also, if it is correct that 59% of those exit polled were women, then the numbers can't be looking good for Kerry.

Bartholomew Roberts
November 2, 2004, 03:49 PM
Well if it is true that the exit poll sample was 59% women to 41% men (on the East coast no less) then Kerry is in a big world of hurt; because those are not good numbers when the demographic you are supposed to dominate is being oversampled by 18%.

However, since as noted above exit polls (especially ones this early) have about as much relevance to the election outcome as what you can pull out of your trashcan any given morning I wouldn't get too excited either way.

Nazirite
November 2, 2004, 03:56 PM
Well I'm off to the polls, wonder if they'll ask me any questions? :scrutiny:

SIGarmed
November 2, 2004, 04:02 PM
Come on. Its way to early. The polls don't even close until tonight and many people haven't even voted yet ,not to mention some absentee ballots that are probably floating around. In 2000 the starting exit polls had Gore in the lead too.

SLCDave
November 2, 2004, 04:19 PM
Market's down, they're spooked too.

The French market? Which market? The DOW is only down 17.70, and NASDAQ is UP.

bogie
November 2, 2004, 04:23 PM
Finally, let's not forget the 2000 election. It is estimated that Republicans lost as many as 10,000 votes when networks called the election before the polls had closed in the western part of the state.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.

We have to worry about the folks who "won't bother voting, because they're losing anyway," and the folks who "vote for Lurch, because Lurch is going to be the winner!"

VOTE. Even if it looks like your state's a lock. Either way.

bogie
November 2, 2004, 04:24 PM
17 points isn't down. 17 points is NOISE.

Augustwest
November 2, 2004, 04:30 PM
I don't think the market has much to do with this, but just for clarification, the Dow is down 17 after having been up 80 or so earlier in the day...

But I have to agree with those who are saying it's way too early to even think about calling the race.

OF
November 2, 2004, 04:30 PM
Ban exit polling!

- Gabe

OF
November 2, 2004, 04:38 PM
Exit polls in 2000 were waaaay off. Nothing to see here. Move on. .org.

- Gabe

Mastrogiacomo
November 2, 2004, 04:47 PM
I got a bad feeling Bush won't be back....

CZ52GUY
November 2, 2004, 04:56 PM
I've found this site interesting in the run-up to the election.

www.realclearpolitics.com

They aren't "statistically pure", but I've enjoyed watching the ebbs and flows...you can get some sense from poll-over-poll trends...but their internals change so even that isn't completely reliable.

Bottom line, I'm sensing that sentiment coming into the election under-reports Bush support in the preliminary polls...what folks actually do in the ballot box...if they show up...I'm not convinced we'll know a winner before midnight...Hawaii of all places is turning into a "swing state".

Let's hope it's decided in the ballot booths and not from the bench this time...

Stay safe,

CZ52'

45Cal
November 2, 2004, 05:01 PM
Just get out today and vote for President Bush!

GSB
November 2, 2004, 05:47 PM
There ought to be a moratorium on exit polls. I really do think that the network coverage has a deleterious effect on elections, and it just pisses me off. These sanctimonious media SOBs never stop trying to manipulate the public -- if you don't think they do, then you've never seen how they operate close-up. The few times I had firsthand knowledge of something they reported on, what they reported bore NO resemblance to the reality, up to and including gross out-of-context quoting and cherry-picking quotes to back their particular slant.

The media are whores. If anyone doubts that, they haven't a clue (look, journalism was one of my majors -- trust me, they're whores).

edit: let me correct myself. They are not whores. Whores have more integrity -- at least they are honest about the services they provide and the cost.

Roon
November 2, 2004, 06:10 PM
Hey, this is an attitude game!!

Go Vote! :fire:

Nazirite
November 2, 2004, 06:18 PM
TIGHTENING: KERRY, BUSH TIED IN OHIO SHOWDOWN

psyopspec
November 2, 2004, 06:29 PM
This is too nerve wracking. I'm gonna go grab a cold one, and I'll be in Strategies and Tactics if anyone needs me.

craig
November 2, 2004, 06:48 PM
if florida blows it again don't blame the whole state. the majority(not all) of the people in south fla. can't read english much less vote correctly. i know, i lived in miami for 36 years before moving up here to the old fla.

2nd Amendment
November 2, 2004, 07:02 PM
The exit polls are tightening. At this point in 2000 Gore had a 4 pt lead in Florida. Kerry now has a 1 point lead. Similar trends in other states. Remember, Repubs draw better in the evening when the working folks get home. Dems make their best numbers early, for reasons I won't voice, and this time Kerry didn't make the numbers one would think needed.

I stick by what I've said: Bush handily in the popular vote. The EC is anybodies guess.

Bartholomew Roberts
November 2, 2004, 07:18 PM
Does anybody know the methodology of the exit polls? The sample size? The demographics? Without this info, those polls are meaningless.

Go vote regardless of what the exit polls say, especially those of you with critical Senate and Congressional races (Coors in Colorado!)

Alan Fud
November 2, 2004, 07:42 PM
Posted by craig: ... if florida blows it again don't blame the whole state. the majority(not all) of the people in south fla. can't read english much less vote correctly. i know, i lived in miami for 36 years before moving up here to the old fla ... My in-laws are from Spain so they communicate with a lot of hispanics and they were shocked to learn that a lot of hispanics are voting for Kerry because "Demoncrates" sounds like they are "for democracy" and the Republicans are represented by the color red which in their eyes stands for communism.

psyopspec
November 2, 2004, 07:45 PM
:what: That's one of the scariest things I've ever heard.

2nd Amendment
November 2, 2004, 07:53 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/electionresults

Check Florida right now...

Jake
November 2, 2004, 07:53 PM
I've always wondered who came up with the red\blue nonsense. Most military maps I've seen in books or TV shows and movies show the good guys in blue and the bad guys in red. Maybe I'm just paranoid but it seems to me to say Repubs = Bad guys.

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