Crime rate? Red vs Blue


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Mike128
December 10, 2004, 10:09 AM
There are people here much better with the computer than me so I'll ask my question here and hope for some help.
What are the crime rates of red counties verses blue? Specifically of violent gun crimes.
Second question is, how strict are the gun laws of red counties/state verses blue?
I know there are other factors involved but I think this would be an interesting study. Pretty sure this has been done somewhere and I'm sure someone here has it.

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BTR
December 10, 2004, 10:28 AM
The South is red and has a fairly high murder rate.

RaggedClaws
December 10, 2004, 10:37 AM
Check out http://www.disastercenter.com/crime (I found this link on packing.org).

Silver Bullet
December 10, 2004, 12:25 PM
I can't vouch for the accuracy, but this was makin' the rounds after the 2000 election:

Professor Joseph Olson of Hamline University School of Law, St. Paul,
Minnesota, points out some interesting facts concerning the most recent
Presidential election:

Population of counties won by:
Gore=127 million
Bush=143 million
Square miles of land won by:
Gore=580,000
Bush=2,2427,000
States won by:
Gore=19
Bush=29
Murder rate per 100,000 residents in counties won by:
Gore=13.2
Bush=2.1
Professor Olson adds:
"In aggregate, the map of the territory Bush won was mostly the land owned
by the tax-paying citizens of this great country. Gore's territory
encompassed those citizens living in government-owned tenements and living
off government welfare..."

BryanP
December 10, 2004, 12:41 PM
Silver Bullet, the data you posted is an urban legend. Snopes is your friend.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/quotes/tyler.asp

AZRickD
December 10, 2004, 12:51 PM
Kerry won in big urban centers such as New York, Washington DC, LA, Detroit, etc.

Kerry had huge margins in New York and DC while Bush had huge margins in Utah and Kansas.

You tell me where one is more likely be a victim of a robbery, assault, murder, etc.

Rick

Silver Bullet
December 10, 2004, 01:08 PM
BryanP,

I’m sure you’re right; if there is anything more suspect than the internet, it’s unsolicited email.

Looking it over, though, I’m guessing it’s fairly accurate; it would be easy to find out how many states each candidate won, for example. I’ll bet it’s much more accurate than the drivel coming from gun control politicians and groups. (How’s that for holding to a low standard ! :) )

Dave R
December 10, 2004, 02:08 PM
I find it interesting that Snopes took the time to re-examine the per-capita murder rates in the Bush counties vs. Gore counties. Here's what they came up with:

Bush counties: 4.1
Gore counties: 6.5

So the murder rate in Gore counties is 'only' 58% higher than Bush counties, rather than the many hundreds of % the original e-mail claims.

The Snopes article also gives source material for the raw data, so someone with more time than me 'could' go calculcate the average for Bush counties vs. Kerry counties.

My guess is it would be nearly the same. There was not a huge difference in which counties went which way in the past election.

Mulliga
December 10, 2004, 02:13 PM
The "Blue" states and cities tend to have much more gun control. DC went for Kerry, as did New York, New Jersey, **********, Hawaii, et. al.

Places where you can buy guns without getting a stupid license or ID card, however, went for Bush. I wonder why?... ;)

Andrew Rothman
December 10, 2004, 02:41 PM
Anyone willing to pony up the bucks for my time to do such a study? I just don't have the hours to do it for free! :)

Standing Wolf
December 10, 2004, 09:55 PM
I'd like to see rates for all violent crimes, not just murder. I'm sure there's a significant difference, but would like to have a definite number.

Grey54956
December 10, 2004, 10:31 PM
Maybe I will try to put together the data over the next few months or so. The problem with data is the interpretation is largely influenced by the presentation. So, depending on how you decide to calculate the number, you can greatly bend the results to your desired outcome.

But, like I say, maybe I will take a look sometime. I am certain that the mean and median murder rates should be fairly close, but the most important thing here is actually the shape and spread of the distribution of those murder rates.

Smoke
December 10, 2004, 11:34 PM
Bosque County, Texas - Red County

Last homicide was 1985, local highschool principal killed his wife. The previous one may well have been before I was born.

Smoke

grendelbane
December 11, 2004, 06:24 PM
It is difficult to make an apples to apples case here. Shootings in my home state, (red), might be considered self defense, when in blue states, they might be considered manslaughter or murder.

State laws vary, as do interpretations of state laws.

Also, sad to say, other factors, (economic, social, etc.) enter into the mix.

I do remember debating a New York liberal about gun ownership. He did finally admit that there was a geographical element to gun ownership. Believe it or not, he actually apologized, even though he insisted that in his environment, his view should prevail.

Nathaniel Firethorn
December 11, 2004, 08:35 PM
I did a comparison of this sort once. Economics has a much greater effect on crime rate than gun control. Depressed areas just have more crime, whether or not CCW is legal there, etc.

- pdmoderator

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