[telewinz]

It's one week from today and the US has launched its attack against Iraq. Iraq has attacked Israel with Scud Missiles and suicide attacks, no nukes but the gloves are off THIS TIME.

[Chris Rhines]

You forgot one, which I think is the most likely - "Perpetual USG occupation of a large part of the middle east, constant low-level civil unrest and terrorism, constant stream of casualties on both sides."

- Chris

[TheLastBoyScout]

what chris said

[Phyphor]

Yea, or "Big war with arabs, long, bloody war, US wins(?) but it's a Phyrric victory. "

[hso]

Sorry, Bud, but the Nobody Wins option seems the most likely.

[ahadams]

how about Iraq manages to actually pull off a real barrage of missiles with gas warheads on major Israeli population centers while simultaneously hitting some US/Allied fixed base facilities (read that as the Air Force ground crew take it in the shorts) with a followup of a large number (100 plus) suicide attacks on civilian and military targets of opportunity.

This is followed by tactical nuke strikes by both Israel and the US on a number of fairly isolated Iraqi facillities.

Followed in turn by a general declaration of war against Israel by Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia (are you surprised? you shouldn't be!) and various and other sundry groups including the plfp or hamas or whatever they're calling themselves this month. Israel responds by neutralizing all hostile "palestinian" activities within it's borders and defending those borders against all comers. They also take out the Aswan dam (thus effectively neutralizing Egypt) and use neutron bombs to eliminate all Syrian and other major arab miltary formations threatening said borders.

The US hits known chem warfare stockpiles from the air, thus denying the Iraqis signficant portions of their own terrain, and then proceeds to level every known military installation, and pulverize every known military unit of Iraq, SA, and Syria; tacitly leaving Libya out of the picture with a you don't bother us and we wont bother you nod to the wacko in charge over there.

End result is you have Israel at a pre-Jimmy Carter's messing around border area. The arabs in complete disarray, and the only islamic related power centers left standing are Pakistan (our ally) and Libya (if that counts as islamic) which is too far away from the action to have any immediate effect.

Of course the UN tries to hold the US and Israel responsible for warcrimes but warnings by both countries that any attempt by the UN to sieze any of it's citizens will be taken as an act of war by whatever countries' troops are involved in the attempt, complete with pictures of recent nuke responses by both parties, results in a major pouting session in the hague followed by nasty reviews in a number of European newspapers...and that's about it.

of course that's just off the top of my head...

[pax]

Good discussion which belongs in L&P.

Hold on, I'll move y'all over there.

pax

The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions. -- Robert Lynd

[D_Burchfield]

ahadams

Good post and it's not too far-fetched of a scenario. Just don't know if the Saudis are willing to hang it all out and lose control of their oil money(spoils of war and all that):D Israel is already in a "wartime" stance so I don't think they can be ambushed very easily. It could very easily be another "7 day War" with the arabs losing a lot more this time around. IMHO, I don't think the Islamic folks are prepared(militarily) to take on the "civilized world" in an all-out slugfest.

Just my nickel's worth

[Baba Louie]

Don't forget the Islamic populations in Indonesia and the Phillipines rising to the occasion if their "Muslim Brothers" are attacked.

Iran is facing US troops on two sides now and doesn't like that so they make a pact with Russia for assistance.

Meanwhile China decides to roll into NK and Taiwan, because they can.

India decides that Pakistan's looking ripe, they've never really liked the Islamics taking over that part of their historic land...

And the next thing you know, we'll have sheep stampeding in the streets, cats living with dogs... Oh the Humanity... the humanity.

Or maybe it'll just be over in a bit, like last time and someone will go in and clean up the mess.

Adios

edited to add

Spain blockades the Med which upsets France who decides they can kick somebodies rearend and while they are busy dealing with Spain, Germany decides... why not, we never really liked the French to begin with anyway and backdoors them.

That was fun.

[cheygriz]

Most likely scenario IMHO.

We go in and kick his arse in 48 hours or less, with the help of his own people.

The other diaperheads swear that they were secretly on our side all along.

[ahadams]

Intrepid 9mm - the reason I think the Saudis will go for it is that they count on being able to bring enough pressure against any occupying force to eventually retake control of their country. This would be based on the fact that they have a great deal of money stashed overseas and the fact that SA contains two of the sites most revered by Moslems, so the liberals would be all ready to bend over and give those back to them right away.

Baba Louie - remember that those insurgencies have depended on external funding for some time. Not only will this (in fact has this already) seriously damage(d) their financial and logistics support, but we are now (once again) giving direct aid to the P.I. against Moslem insurgents (early 1900's redux) but since we already know we'd get UN/NATO wobblies in to be part of the 'democratization force in Iraq' that would free up additional troops for helping other countries in a similar fashion.

[Porter Rockwell]

Move Israel somewhere else, anywhere else.
Remember the USS Liberty!

[fallingblock]

for creativity.:)

His second one will be how it happens...:D