"Katrin"; All you SHTFers!


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Bob F.
August 27, 2005, 10:25 PM
Particularly if you're in the "Norlens" area, this could be it! Hope everyone in or near the path is taking appropriate action. We're well North, probably get lots of rain next weekend, shouldn't be any major problem.

Stay safe (and reasonably dry).
Bob

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Nimitz
August 27, 2005, 10:42 PM
I just went through it in Ft. lauderdale...poor guys in the panhandle/LA/nawlins'

been there done that its no fun.

Chad

Stauble
August 27, 2005, 10:52 PM
ive just been threw it in broward too. alot of ppl hear didnt take it seriously but i think we have all learned or lessons. i remember after hurricane Andrew the national guard was out in the streets. they pretty much kept any more fecees from hitting the fan. good luck to yall in new orleans

Nimitz
August 27, 2005, 11:01 PM
Stauble where are you at?

im in Cooper city.

reason people dont take it seriously is theres hardly any native Floridians....all yanks....but whatever they'll learn eventually (ignore this if your one of em ;) )

Chad

Preacherman
August 27, 2005, 11:15 PM
We're battening down the hatches here. I'm in north-central Louisiana, and already have several friends calling, asking for accommodation, as they evacuate from New Orleans and points south. Should be pretty full here come tomorrow night.

craig
August 27, 2005, 11:29 PM
we're watching it too. looks like the panhandle might get lucky this time. it's turning wnw now and they expect it to turn to more to the north tomorrow. preacherman.. be careful and take care... to everybody else in the path, take precautions and don't be afraid to run away. andrew made me clear outta south dade for awhile in '92.

waterhouse
August 27, 2005, 11:36 PM
I grew up in houston, but all my extended family lives around baton rouge except for a couple down in New Orleans, and when I was little I'd go visit all of my cousins over the summer.

I think I was probably 12 before I realized hurricanes were a bad thing, because as far as I was concerned hurricanes meant everyone from new orleans came to visit and we had BBQs for 4 days with all the meat from their freezers, plus a huge sleepover party. Those were the days.

Good luck and godspeed to all ya'll getting the hell out.

already have several friends calling, asking for accommodation

my aunt said they planned on about 20 at her place tonight :uhoh: The good thing is that's 20 people I can call the next time I'm lost in new orleans

Nimitz
August 28, 2005, 12:43 AM
Craig wheres crestview in relation to defuniak springs?....

Chad

fiVe
August 28, 2005, 03:24 AM
Crestview is approximately 30 miles west of DeFuniak Springs.

craig
August 28, 2005, 10:45 AM
fiVe is right. head west on i-10 or hwy 90 and you'll find us.

Stauble
August 28, 2005, 10:49 AM
Nimitz
i am at the edge of Sunrise by the Panther Stadium. My dad grew up in Maine (at least its not New York) and came down here in the early 70s. My mom is 2/3 seminole and 1/3 Rebel (guess you could say shes a "Native") i was born in pensacola and came down to Davie (on the border of Cooper City) i was there for Andrew and then moved to Sunrise. i dont recall any cat 1s cept for Irene (i think it was irene) and that didnt do 2 much damage. i dont think to many more yanks moved down sice then (alot more cubans came up but i wont go there) ;)

DMiculek
August 28, 2005, 10:52 AM
I am just west of New Orleans, high water shouldn't be a problem for us here. But the wind looks like it will be tough to say the least. The family will be hunkered down is a safe room I built. Have lots of food and water.
See you guys in a few days!

Babalouie
August 28, 2005, 10:58 AM
Hey Nimitz and Stauble I'm in Coral Springs, work in Ft. Lauderdale. Let's go shooting!

pwolfman
August 28, 2005, 11:02 AM
On the news conference that the govn'r and the mayor had just a few minutes ago said that the dome was a place of shelter. the rub was that he said no weapons, just food, blankets, stuff you would take camping for a few days. what really rubbed me the wrong way is that he lumped in weapons with drugs.

The final thing I heard him say was that people would be safe in the dome....but I am of the feeling that no you wouldn't, not entirely.... :scrutiny:

MikeIsaj
August 28, 2005, 11:15 AM
All you folks in harms way, God be with you, as our prayers are. Don't be a hero, get out of the way and do it now!

Preacherman
August 28, 2005, 11:21 AM
A quick word from the horse's mouth. I heard from a buddy in the Louisiana State Police a few minutes ago. He says they've been briefed that this could be the "really, really big one" that science-fiction and horror stories talk about. If Katrina remains at its current strength and hits close to New Orleans, passing just to the east of the city (as it's currently predicted to do), it could put the entire city under 20 feet of water. Anyone remaining in the city, in their houses, is basically SOL and drowned. They're talking months, not weeks, to drain the water and pollution out of the city (all those chemical plants dumping their wastes into the Mississippi, you understand), and perhaps NO will never be the same again. For a start, goodbye, French Quarter!

Another big worry is that thousands of folks either can't or won't evacuate, despite the mandatory order. Of those, many will end up at the Superdome, which is allegedly built to withstand 200 mph winds, but many thousands more will insist on riding out the storm in their own homes and places of work. However, with 20 feet of water coming in and wave action on top of that, just how many normal buildings will remain standing?

Looks really, really bad from this end. I now have over 30 people supposed to be at my place by this evening, several of them with RV's and travel trailers. I've told them all to bring their own food, water and necessities, as I can't afford to provide for them all. If any THR members within 100 miles of NO haven't evacuated yet, get the heck out of there now!

Watch this space for more news if I get any.

RKCheung
August 28, 2005, 12:29 PM
What Preacherman said.

It is not looking good folks. This is what I do for a living. Get out and get out now if you have not done so.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W_sm2+gif/151733W_sm.gif

Gewehr98
August 28, 2005, 12:59 PM
Katrina is pushing a Category 6 hurricane, 175 mph winds, 905 millibar at the eye, and there is no such thing as a Category 6 (yet)!

I understand Keesler AFB near Biloxi will not be evacuating. :what: (Mumbles something about organic airlift...)

chaim
August 28, 2005, 01:00 PM
Saw a news report and it looks that the storm is going to be a direct hit, or very close to it, on New Orleans. The sustained winds are currently 175mph with gusts to 213. Forget the flooding, with those winds any building standing in its way is firewood. Good luck to all our Louisiana, my prayers are with you. If it was me I wouldn't even want to be in the state right now.

kbr80
August 28, 2005, 01:28 PM
THR members in the path, The wife and I have property here in Arkansas, big enough to hold maybe 10 RV, or more if tents are pitched. You, any of you, are welcome to bug out and spend it on our property, bring your own food, but you can use the gas grill to cook :D . I am serioius, email me, or pm me if you need info or directions.

Mannlicher
August 28, 2005, 01:33 PM
we did three days without electic service here in South Miami. I believe the highest winds here were around 90 mph. I sure feel for those in Katrina's path. My Brother in Law lives in mid Mississippi, and he is already hunkered down.

oh, the Saffir-Simpson Scale only goes to 5, there is no six or above.

Rembrandt
August 28, 2005, 01:55 PM
Hummmm?.......wife commented how this reminded her of the story of Sodom & Gomorrha, biblical cities destroyed for their sin, decadence, and immorality. Told her if that's the case, Las Vegas and LA would have been gone by now.

Hope you folks get out safely.

1911user
August 28, 2005, 02:00 PM
oh, the Saffir-Simpson Scale only goes to 5, there is no six or above.
Katrina may force an addition to the scale. Winds are 175 MPH sustained and gusting to 215 per NOAA and it's still building. :what:

Nimitz
August 28, 2005, 02:10 PM
First off....I pray for everyone in the path of this destruction. AND I hope that everyone is smart enough to GTFO NOW or earlier...this will be monumental storm....no ones ever heard of such a storm....God help those in its path....

Chad

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 02:17 PM
Katrina may force an addition to the scale. Winds are 175 MPH sustained and gusting to 215 per NOAA and it's still building.

Still slower than Camille. So far.

Nimitz
August 28, 2005, 02:19 PM
thumper the storm is HUGE compared to camille. and its strenghing....

Chad

Mongo the Mutterer
August 28, 2005, 02:20 PM
God Bless you all below the Mason Dixon.

Fiancee and I were scheduled to go to Dauphin Island AL 2004 = Ivan

Fiancee and I were scheduled in three weeks to go to Dauphin Island AL 2005 may = Katrina

Lets stop naming these 'canes after Russians, OKAY???

If you are in NAWLINS reading this, get off your computer and get OUT OF DODGE.

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 02:23 PM
thumper the storm is HUGE compared to camille. and its strenghing....

Right Chad, but we were talking about the revision of the Saffir-Simpson scale. That scale deals with windspeed, not physical size. Camille had faster sustained winds.

javafiend
August 28, 2005, 02:33 PM
I'm in north-central Louisiana, and already have several friends calling, asking for accommodation, as they evacuate from New Orleans and points south. Should be pretty full here come tomorrow night.

Preacherman, they are quite lucky to know you.

what really rubbed me the wrong way is that he lumped in weapons with drugs.

Guns, drugs, fatty foods, violent video games.....government has its hands full protecting us from our own foibles.

wife commented how this reminded her of the story of Sodom & Gomorrha, biblical cities destroyed for their sin, decadence, and immorality. Told her if that's the case, Las Vegas and LA would have been gone by now.

And also the District of Corruption.

"Laws that forbid the carrying of arms... disarm only those who are neither inclined nor determined to commit crimes. Such laws make things worse for the assaulted and better for the assailants; they serve to encourage rather than to prevent homicides, for an unarmed man may be attacked with greater confidence than an armed man." - Thomas Jefferson

Actually, that's Thomas Jefferson citing the famous Italian philosopher Cesare Beccaria from his treatise On Crimes and Punishments.

Firearms stand next in importance to the Constitution itself! They are the American people's Liberty Teeth... " -- George Washington.

Nonsense. There's no evidence (http://www.guncite.com/gc2ndbog.html) that George Washington ever wrote or said such words.

President Geo. Washington, in a speech to Congress. 7 January, 1790

No record of Pres. Washington having given any kind of speech to Congress on 7 January 1790.

Nimitz
August 28, 2005, 02:36 PM
thumper just upgraded more.... 184mph sustained. gusts at 200+

what was camille? Im a tad young for camille (18...)

Chad

NineseveN
August 28, 2005, 02:42 PM
Folks, listen to all those that are telling you, GTFO now. Hell, if you come as far north as PA, come see me. Shoot me an e-mail for directions. ;-)


javafiend, WTH are you replying to? Did I miss something? PM me about it please, let's not derail this thread.

Sindawe
August 28, 2005, 02:42 PM
Per a quick search (http://www.beauvoir.org/camille.html), camille had wind speeds 210 mph.

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 02:49 PM
If this sucker has sustained winds of 184 mph, God help 'em.

Bonne chance, N'Awlins.

walking arsenal
August 28, 2005, 03:01 PM
Theres room here in MN, might as well stay here once you arive no point going back to whats not there. God knows we could use some more good shooters here too.

WarMachine
August 28, 2005, 03:17 PM
Here is a great little article on this current storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Katrina

RRTX
August 28, 2005, 03:36 PM
Sustained winds are up to 185 MPH and the pressure is down to 902mb (second lowest pressure in recorded history) I would not want to be one of the people either ignoring the mandatory evac or the ones piling into the Superdome because they can't get out.

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 04:15 PM
I've never seen anything like this from the National Weather Service:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005


DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED

HURRICANE KATRINA
A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.

THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.

HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.

THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!

LAZ038-040-050-056>070-282100-
ASSUMPTION-LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-
ST. CHARLES-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-ST. TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-
UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-
UPPER TERREBONNE-
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

dakotasin
August 28, 2005, 04:40 PM
couple of random thoughts...

wasn't new orleans supposed to be transformed into a bowl of soup last year when one of the hurricanes came in? how is this one any different? latest predictions showing it will strike east of no...

when we have life-threatening cold/blizzards up here or in the northeast, threads are abruptly halted, and we are re-directed to www.chatabouttheweather.com by moderators - under the presumption that the weather has nothing to do w/ thr's mission statement, or the mission of the particular forum (especially the part that says 'posts must be firearms related'). how is this any different?

all that aside... i'm not seeing a lot of responses from members in that part of the world - i hope that means they are wrapping up their preperations, and hopping into the truck. good luck, and i hope all goes as well as possible...

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 04:50 PM
We had a national weather service warning for the Dakotas last year that mentioned "HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS?"

I must have missed that one.

:confused:

dakotasin
August 28, 2005, 04:54 PM
obviously because you didn't follow the re-direct to www.chatabouttheweather.com

Nimitz
August 28, 2005, 04:56 PM
because lets see this is a category 5....compared to a 3-4 that didnt even hit NO....thats why.

and no offense but this is nothing compared to a blizzard. estimates of casualties are 40-60 THOUSAND....

Hopefully the good President steps in and sends everything and anything needed to there...cause God they will need it....

Chad

torpid
August 28, 2005, 05:04 PM
Thumper- can you do me a favor and provide a link to the info you posted?
I can't seem to find it on the http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ site.

-Thanks.

dakotasin
August 28, 2005, 05:05 PM
nimitz- thanks, that's what i was looking for. i don't actively track hurricanes, so didn't know the difference. it was an honest question.

i'm not offended by the blizzard comparison. i'm just pointing out the inconsistency in what gets locked and what doesn't. sometimes, heaven forbid, gun-owners have interests outside guns and those threads are quickly shut down as being off-topic. but some go on, inspite of having little-to-nothing to do w/ guns.

edit: i have read that the president is ready to send everything down there, as is fema... fwiw.

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 05:07 PM
It was this:

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062#t2

but it's changed now. I wish I would've gotten a screenshot. They read the thing on Fox and CNN.

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 05:09 PM
i'm not offended by the blizzard comparison. i'm just pointing out the inconsistency in what gets locked and what doesn't.

Well, that's probably true, but this is a pretty big issue. This is a potentially economy changing event.

torpid
August 28, 2005, 05:11 PM
Thanks Thumper.

I agree that it was remarkably "juicy" in its descriptive content compared to the usual .gov warning releases, so I was hoping to see it up on the site- wonder what's up with the change there?

Weird.

MikeIsaj
August 28, 2005, 05:23 PM
Torpid:
Fox is quoting the same release now on the news. I wonder if us common folk were supposed to see that. Thanks for posting it Thumper. Good job.

While living in coastal NC, I experienced several hurricanes cat 2 - 3. From that experience I will say that anyone still in NOLA is out of their mind and needs to leave now! If you are not in the superdome, you will probably die.

Preacherman
August 28, 2005, 05:32 PM
The Drudge Report has a copy of that NOAA New Orleans warning posted - see http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm for details.

Another very sobering perspective is provided in a flash Stratfor Public Policy Intelligence Report, distributed to subscribers this afternoon via e-mail:

The Geopolitics of Katrina

A Category 5 hurricane, the most severe type measured, Katrina has been reported heading directly toward the city of New Orleans. This would be a human catastrophe, since New Orleans sits in a bowl below sea level. However, Katrina is not only moving on New Orleans. It also is moving on the Port of Southern Louisiana. Were it to strike directly and furiously, Katrina would not only take a massive human toll, but also an enormous geopolitical one.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is the fifth-largest port in the world in terms of tonnage, and the largest port in the United States. The only global ports larger are Singapore, Rotterdam, Shanghai and Hong Kong. It is bigger than Houston, Chiba and Nagoya, Antwerp and New York/New Jersey. It is a key link in U.S. imports and exports and critical to the global economy.

The Port of Southern Louisiana stretches up and down the Mississippi River for about 50 miles, running north and south of New Orleans from St. James to St. Charles Parish. It is the key port for the export of grains to the rest of the world -- corn, soybeans, wheat and animal feed. Midwestern farmers and global consumers depend on those exports. The United States imports crude oil, petrochemicals, steel, fertilizers and ores through the port. Fifteen percent of all U.S. exports by value go through the port. Nearly half of the exports go to Europe.

The Port of Southern Louisiana is a river port. It depends on the navigability of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi is notorious for changing its course, and in southern Louisiana -- indeed along much of its length -- levees both protect the land from its water and maintain its course and navigability. Dredging and other maintenance are constant and necessary to maintain its navigability. It is fragile.

If New Orleans is hit, the Port of Southern Louisiana, by definition, also will be hit. No one can predict the precise course of the storm or its consequences. However, if we speculate on worse-case scenarios the following consequences jump out:

# The port might become in whole or part unusable if levees burst. If the damage to the river and port facilities could not be repaired within 30 days when the U.S. harvests are at their peak, the effect on global agricultural prices could be substantial.
# There is a large refinery at Belle Chasse. It is the only refinery that is seriously threatened by the storm, but if it were to be inundated, 250,000 barrels per day would go off line. Moreover, the threat of environmental danger would be substantial.
# About 2 percent of world crude production and roughly 25 percent of U.S.-produced crude comes from the Gulf of Mexico and already is affected by Katrina. Platforms in the path of Katrina have been evacuated but others continue pumping. If this follows normal patterns, most production will be back on line within hours or days. However, if a Category 5 hurricane (of which there have only been three others in history) has a different effect, the damage could be longer lasting. Depending on the effect on the Port of Southern Louisiana, the ability to ship could be affected.
# A narrow, two-lane highway that handles approximately 10,000 vehicles a day, is used for transport of cargo and petroleum products and provides port access for thousands of employees is threatened with closure. A closure of as long as two weeks could rapidly push gasoline prices higher.

At a time when oil prices are in the mid-60-dollar range and starting to hurt, the hurricane has an obvious effect. However, it must be borne in mind that the Mississippi remains a key American shipping route, particularly for the export and import of a variety of primary commodities from grain to oil, as well as steel and rubber. Andrew Jackson fought hard to keep the British from taking New Orleans because he knew it was the main artery for U.S. trade with the world. He was right and its role has not changed since then.

This is not a prediction. We do not know the path of the storm and we cannot predict its effects. It is a warning that if a Category 5 hurricane hits the Port of Southern Louisiana and causes the damage that is merely at the outer reach of the probable, the effect on the global system will be substantial.

torpid
August 28, 2005, 05:36 PM
As many recall, that fictional "what if" Oil Storm show on FX had a similar scenario to what's happening now.

Hacker15E
August 28, 2005, 06:09 PM
As many recall, that fictional "what if" Oil Storm show on FX had a similar scenario to what's happening now.

I was just thinking the EXACT same thing. I think that the scanario was even a Cat 5 Hurricane hitting New Orleans directly in the Sept 2005 time frame. Guess they nailed it, eh?

get your SHTF kits ready!

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 06:54 PM
It's back up again if you look quickly:

http://weather.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/iwszone?Sites=:laz062#t2

Greg L
August 28, 2005, 07:40 PM
We've got some floor space & plenty of yard space for tents (provided if needed) if anyone needs to evac this far north (Cincinnati area). PM for details.

Good luck to all in her path :( .

Peter M. Eick
August 28, 2005, 07:51 PM
As an Oil industry worker, I would guess that the production in the eastern central gulf will be "off-line" for a few days to weeks. The problem is if the pipelines get damaged and the power for the pumping stations. This could be in big trouble. I don't explore the gulf like I did a decade ago, but I do know that there is a lot of production in the path of that storm and I bet everyone of the workers are already off or moved over to the western gulf. Also remember the western gulf is more "gassy" and the eastern is more "oily" so the impact will be on the oil side.

Also what about the offloading facilities for the international crude? That will be a problem. The loss of the refinery would be an issue, but think about the labor to run it. Even if the refinery is "up" are you going to bus everyone in for a shift? What about the subs etc. What about parts? What about water, food etc for the refinery crews?

Having riden out 2 hurricanes in the gulf aboard ship it is not fun by any stretch of the imagination. I took this picture from my cabin during "Barry" I was 5 m of the water line. We were in the pre-storm swell and it was running about 7 to 10 m seas.

http://pages.sbcglobal.net/eickpm/porthole.jpg




I will put it to ya this way. Today, even though I live in Houston and am not impacted at all by the storm (other then excessive i-10 traffic) I filled up every Jerry can I had (7 of them), filled all my propane tanks, I filled up both cars. I got some extra oil for the generator. I paid $2.39 a gallon and I expect the price to be at least 20 cents higher per gallon by monday afternoon. I would not be surprised to see 50 cents by tuesday if we lose a few pipelines, offloading facilities and maybe a refinery or two.

Oh yeah, and a holiday of driving is coming......


Whats the worst case? I wasted about an hour of my sunday and I will burn up the fuel in a few weeks when I see things settle out.

Whats the best case? I have about 100 gallons of gas, 120 lbs of propane, and plenty of oil for the camper and generator. Add that to the MRE's and filters for the water purifier we are in good shape.


ps: to all the rest of us on the gulf coast. Remember we are not even to the peak of the season. :)

pps: to you all who have to take the brunt of it. I will truly pray for you. "been there, done that" :o

EVIL5LITER
August 28, 2005, 07:59 PM
I'll give you guys an update from the affected area.

I live in SW Mobile County, Alabama, which is right on the Gulf of Mexico. I work in George County, MS, which is about 25 miles north of Pascagoula.

So far, we been seeing bands of rain and some winds, but nothing yet.

I-10 Eastbound was bumper to fricking bumper for 100 miles at least and every car in the lanes had LA tags.

Supposedly, the Superdome has over 100,000 people wanting to come in, and it's capacity is only 65,000 or so. Looks to be a rough time there. Especially if they keep showing up.

No winds yet, and we are as prepared as we can be. Storm surge shouldn't be a problem as I'm about 10 miles from the Gulf and another 10 miles from Mobile bay, and at an elevated position in the neighborhood.

Prediction even this far east (120 miles or so from NO) is 100-125mph sustained winds and 15-20ft storm surge.

Black Majik
August 28, 2005, 08:03 PM
Living in California does have its advantages! Whats a hurricane? :D

Good luck to everyone in Orleans, and in the path of Katrina.

best wishes and godspeed to you all! :what:

12-34hom
August 28, 2005, 08:03 PM
Let us pray for all those in this storms path.

12-34hom.

Peter M. Eick
August 28, 2005, 08:04 PM
You hit my concerns on the head. If you don't evacuate early you are going to ride this thing out in your car on I-10.

I cannot think of a worst place to experience a cat-5! :what:


If the next one goes for Houston, unless I can get out early, I am staying!

walking arsenal
August 28, 2005, 08:10 PM
Dunno Black, whats a Hurricane? Whats an earthquake, flood tornado and forest fire?


Oh yeah, and we in MN get to keep our guns! :evil:

NineseveN
August 28, 2005, 08:15 PM
pwnd

mete
August 28, 2005, 08:17 PM
All people going into the stadium are having their belongings searched !! The rule is no weapons !!!

Sindawe
August 28, 2005, 08:24 PM
All people going into the stadium are having their belongings searched !! The rule is no weapons !!! And no EtOH. On one hand, it makes a measure of sense. Large numbers of frightened, possible desperate people. Add EtOH and weapons = bad situation. On top of what is looking to be a VERY bad situation.

Listening to Fox news, they state that the Superdome is rated to withstand 135 pmh winds. But that the winds out of Katrina are much faster, and there is the issue of all the buildings that have gone up downtown. And the possible storm surge of 20+ feet.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed for all the folks in that path of this storm.

R.H. Lee
August 28, 2005, 08:29 PM
Living in California does have its advantages! Whats a hurricane? Yeah, but it's real hot today. And quiet. Nice earthquake weather.

javafiend
August 28, 2005, 09:22 PM
PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE

Check this (http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html) out!


THE BIG ONE
A major hurricane could decimate the region, but flooding from even a moderate storm could kill thousands. It's just a matter of time.

...

"A stronger storm on a slightly different course -- such as the path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5 feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage. "
"That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe, national vice president for disaster services with the American Red Cross."

I wonder how many gators are in Lake Ponchatrain.......

DelayedReaction
August 28, 2005, 09:56 PM
They estimate that about 10,000 people will try and use the Superdome as a shelter spot. If the water floods 20 feet to sea level (not including storm surge or anything else), won't that just make the Dome a death trap as water floods in? I doubt the facility is water tight.

Mnemesyne
August 28, 2005, 10:06 PM
My hopes and prayers are with those in New Orleans.....

Taurus 66
August 28, 2005, 10:38 PM
Those choosing to stay in their homes:

http://www.fema.gov/hazards/hurricanes/whatshouldido.shtm

I would like to add one FEMA overlooked.

Clean, load, and ready your weapons right now. Looters will be coming soon.

Wastemore
August 28, 2005, 10:39 PM
Somewhat off topic, but..the offers to house/provide shelter/food to strangers on this board in the path of this natural disaster to other strangers on this board reminds me how gracious the American people really are.

God bless everyone of you.

Bob F.
August 28, 2005, 10:50 PM
Speaking of which....I'm just North of the Va_WVa border on I-77 w/ 5 acres and a full basement. E-mail me. BTW: the house is for sale, 4BR, 2 bath brick ranch w/ attached 2car. Bring your own food and ammo.

God bless those in the path.
Stay safe.
Bob

EVIL5LITER
August 28, 2005, 10:59 PM
They estimate that about 10,000 people will try and use the Superdome as a shelter spot. If the water floods 20 feet to sea level (not including storm surge or anything else), won't that just make the Dome a death trap as water floods in? I doubt the facility is water tight

Not 10,000. 100,000+. The Dome ran out of space probably earlier today, only having a seating capacity of 69,000 people. From what I understand, there are still people in line waiting to get in.

EVIL5LITER
August 28, 2005, 11:03 PM
Also, to give everyone an update here:

Still have power, although I've taken the dish down. Rain and winds are sporadic, but picking up in intensity. I just shimmed the back door to keep it from flying open during the storm.

I picked up my 4wd from my parent's house earlier today, so hopefully if the roads are too bad I'll have a way to get around.

I've got 4 books and a bunch of guns to clean, so that should keep me occupied for about 2-3 days without power. With Ivan, I went 5 days without power, which were quite frankly, 5 of the longest days of my life.

You have no idea how hard it is to sleep with the windows open, no power, 90 degree, 90% humidity nights, and every last one of your neighbors has a generator running full blast not more than 75 feet away in every direction.

I don't think I got more than two hours of sleep a night that first week. When the power finally came back on at 4am on the sixth night, I literally lept out of bed, danced a jig, turned the a/c onto a testes freezing temperature, cut on every fan in the house, and slammed the windows shut.

I slept like a log that night :)

Thumper
August 28, 2005, 11:06 PM
Not 10,000. 100,000+. The Dome ran out of space probably earlier today, only having a seating capacity of 69,000 people. From what I understand, there are still people in line waiting to get in.

Guy on Fox earlier said there's plenty of room. The lines outside have pretty much disappeared.

GunGoBoom
August 28, 2005, 11:10 PM
If any THRs there choose to stay, get some fresh water gathered up! And have a boat ready, and a backup boat or raft. But getting out would be even better. This is gonna be bad. As per usual during such catastrophies, 2 points rear their ugly heads: (a) making an evacuation *mandatory* is WRONG - people should be free to take an unwise course of action in the United States of America, if they so choose, and (b) if there are some of those idiotic 'anti-gouging' laws in LA, then of course people will die from lack of water because the law will keep the entrepeneurs at home, instead of working gathering supply lines for and selling water, thus saving lives, for the profit motive. Anyone know if LA has such laws? And if there's a 28 or 30 foot lake covering the city, how are the people in the superdome's lower seat areas gonna deal with that - it's not a watertight building is it?

Preacherman
August 28, 2005, 11:15 PM
Clean, load, and ready your weapons right now. Looters will be coming soon.

Not in New Orleans they won't... Anyone who isn't in a decent shelter (and many of those who are) will be dead by this time tomorrow. The LSU disaster preparedness team is saying that with Katrina still veering slightly west at this hour (its course is still NNW), it's most likely that the New Orleans city bowl will be filled with water from levee to levee, east to west, south to north. Basically, you'll have a pool of highly toxic polluted water up to 25 feet deep, with nothing showing above the surface except taller buildings. More than 50% of residential, industrial and commercial properties will no longer exist, and the rest will be severely damaged. There will be no electricity, no transport apart from helicopters and boats, and massive risks to those in the area from toxic pollutants, alligators and snakes swept into the city from outlying areas, etc.

Looting? That's the least of your worries!

bogie
August 28, 2005, 11:33 PM
If someone's on the road, and feels like St. Louis, I can handle a few.

GunGoBoom
August 28, 2005, 11:59 PM
Preacherman, let's hope you're not right - but of course you may be. Sure hope the disaster preparedness teams and relief agencies (FEMA, etc) are ready to go with plenty of boats and supplies (meds, food, water, etc.). Although the water and winds (debris and collapsing structures) are far more deadly than anything else, as you mention, it may not be a bad idea to have your gator and snake loads ready, if anyone chooses to stay. They shoulda called this one "Lorena". It'll be interesting to hear stories of people using their "bugout vehicles" to circumvent the parking lots on the highways in LA & MS, if any.

Taurus 66
August 29, 2005, 12:04 AM
The storm's going to affect more than just N. Orleans. I'm praying for those in and around the city. I'm thinking about those more inland who will not see surge but just a lot of wind and rain, power outages, etc. Besides Preacher, aren't you supposed to be blessing those right now instead of the doomsday talk?

Thumper
August 29, 2005, 06:14 AM
Well, things seem to be looking a lot better this morning. NO is being spared the worst of the wind, at least. We'll see about the flooding, though.

bogie
August 29, 2005, 07:57 AM
You know the really interesting thing? If there's a bad one in the next coupla years that hits that area again, if this isn't quite as bad as predicted, a lot of folks will just stay home...

chaim
August 29, 2005, 11:06 AM
Fox, MSNBC and one of the local MD radio stations have all reported a levee break in New Orleans, but have given few if any details. Wasn't a levee break supposed to be a worst case scenario? :(

I've never been there so I don't know the local geography. Please tell me that there are levees and then there are levees. Are there some levees that could overflow or even break without too much trouble?

Preacherman
August 29, 2005, 11:25 AM
Chaim, the levees actually break the city into sectors. Depending on who you talk to, there are between nine and thirteen "areas", any one of which could flood without necessarily affecting the others (provided the flood isn't too big, as that would overflow into neighboring areas).

Actually, things look better right now than everyone had predicted. Katrina's jog to the east has moved the strongest winds away from the city. There's a reported break in Sector Nine, which will affect the French Quarter, and indications are that there could be up to eight feet of water in some areas. The pumps have stopped (power's out), and their backup generators haven't kicked in for some reason, so the heavy rainfall will cause some general problems. The main threat, the predicted 24-to-28-foot storm surge, is now reported to be less than expected, probably in the 15-to-20-foot range, so the levee walls against Lake Pontchartrain may hold - but that's not guaranteed. If they let go, then New Orleans is under water, period. If they hold, the flooding can perhaps be minimized.

I'm exhausted right now... I have about 30 evacuees staying with me. They arrived in RV's and travel trailers, most of them exhausted from up to 10 hours on the road. Last night I put all the kids (eleven of them) on my living-room floor, and hauled in three of the ladies to be available as surrogate moms to all of them. The rest of the adults got some sleep in the RV's. I've learned that pain meds and sleep aids don't work against serial crying from that many kids! Later this morning, once all the adults are up and about, I'm going to banish them all to get some food in town, and try and catch up on my sleep for a few hours.

So far, we've been incredibly fortunate. Let's see what the next few hours bring.

hso
August 29, 2005, 11:37 AM
I75 and I40 cross here in Knoxville and if any of you need to push north to make room for more refugees coming in from the SW you're welcome to come to my place.

I've got a field big enough space for 8 for RV/campers and another 1,000 square feet of "guest" space.

I'll reemphasize that this is not a fort up and protect the homestead issue for folks in NO. Smarts and luck, not guns, are what will keep you safe. Smart enough to have gotten moving early and luck enough to have a place to go and a clear enough route to get there.

For folks near, but not in the "bullís-eye", NO dealing with looters may become an issue.

I expect that Peter is far enough away, 250 miles NW of NO, that there won't be anything but short term interruption of services. Everyone there should be safe.

Folks contemplating returning to NO and it's environs, they will be facing blocked roads and progressively greater disruption of services as they approach. These folks will be the ones with the greatest concern for personal safety wrt violence.

good luck

Henry Bowman
August 29, 2005, 11:55 AM
I've learned that pain meds and sleep aids don't work against serial crying from that many kids! :uhoh: Bless you and hang in there.

obiwan1
August 29, 2005, 12:02 PM
Just got my power back an hour ago. Good luck New Orleans :(

chaim
August 29, 2005, 12:04 PM
Thank you Preacherman. I was starting to wonder if the levee breach that was reported had to be relatively minor because there were some initial reports but no details, but not having ever been there I wasn't sure if minor breaches were possible, . If it was going to effect the entire city I would think there'd be more reports. It does sound like one or two neighborhoods are completely underwater however.

From the CNN, MSNBC and Fox reports it sounds like Mobile, AL and Gulfport, MS are getting the worst of it. CNN is reporting Gulfport is under 10-12' of water. MSNBC is now reporting pretty much all of Mobile is under water with buildings completely submerged. Still, LA is bad too with flooding, not just in New Orleans.

My prayers and hopes are with all of you in the hurricane's path. This is ugly.

BTW- any TN area residents know what is expected your way when Katrin gets to you? I understand the storm may track through you later. I have an uncle and his family in Memphis and we haven't been able to contact him to see what they expect and to see how they are prepared.

hso
August 29, 2005, 12:44 PM
Chiam,

If I were in Memphis I'd be concerned about high winds and secondary tornadoes more than Katrina's rain. It looks like the center of the tropical storm Katrina will become will slip just east of Memphis, but there won't be a good idea how far east until tonight. The further east of Memphis the better for Memphis (but not for Middle and East Tennessee).

Here in E. Tenn. we're watching the path and forecasts for possible flooding (not a problem in my immediate area, but many roads will have creeks crossing them instead the roads crossing the creek) and heavy winds (a real headache for me with 3/4 mile of road through the woods). I keep a come-along and tow-line and axe in the vehicle at all times and will add the chainsaw if winds look to be "bad". I'll also add a shotgun.

Regardless of where you are in Tennessee, it's gonna be like some divorces here. Someone's gonna loose a trailer. (sorry, had to inject a little tacky levity into the tradgedy :scrutiny: )

foghornl
August 29, 2005, 01:43 PM
I rode out Hugo in Charleston, SC Sept 21, 1989. Quoth the Raven: "Nevermore".

That storm was only 135MPH winds when it came rolling into Charleston Harbor just after midnight. Took down TV station 1670-Ft Broadcast Tower at Awendaw, SC..A bit north of Charleston/Mt. Pleasant, SC. I'll pass on riding out any more storms, thanks.

My God speed and guide all those in Harm's Way.

I don't think being in the Superdome is a good idea, either. During Hugo, the Mt. Pleasant High School gym was opened as a shelter...Big Flat roof and heavy rain...well roof gave way, folks got wet inside.

hso
August 29, 2005, 03:11 PM
Looks like the worst is over for NO.


Good luck Missisippi, Alabama, and TN.

Black Majik
August 29, 2005, 04:37 PM
http://x7e.xanga.com/376852323263112481944/z9045701.jpg

http://www.socalsportbikes.com/xmb/images/smilies/laughing.gif

Hawkmoon
August 29, 2005, 04:47 PM
Just read a news report of a woman calling from her attic that she was trapped with 3 kids inside. And another guy on a cell phone from his attic saying the water was rising fast but he wasn't ready to use the crowbar and break out onto the roof just yet, but would somebody please send a boat.

UNBELIEVABLE!

What the blue bloody blazes do people like this use for brains? There is no way on this earth they could have NOT known that the governor ordered the area evacuated. Just who do they think is going to be coming around with a boat to give them a lift?

More to the point ... why should anyone risk their lives to save someone who is too dumb to at least make an effort to get to high ground before the storm hit?

dakotasin
August 29, 2005, 05:00 PM
hawkmoon... lol, i agree. people should have the freedom to evacuate, and, they should be absolutely free to stay at home, and face the storm, if they want. this does not mean that anybody should feel compelled to go get them, though...

i think this storm is really unfolding a shtf scenario right in front of us. up to now, weapons have been largely useless. we'll see if it stays that way. i hope all goes well down south for the next day or 3...

Preacherman
August 29, 2005, 08:05 PM
Well, it looks like NO dodged a bullet by the slimmest of margins. The eyewall of Katrina tracked along the east bank of the Mississippi, and all four parishes (= counties) along that side of the river are devastated. Water everywhere, most houses clobbered very comprehensively, etc. This includes a large chunk of the greater NO metropolitan area, which spread out to the east bank long ago. There are estimated to be several tens of thousands of people in those parishes who decided to stay put and ride it out. No-one has heard yet from those in the southern parishes, especially Plaquemines. I've traveled there a lot, in towns like Buras, Port Sulphur, Diamond, etc., and I well recall standing at the church in Diamond and watching an ocean-going ship sailing past above my head - the levees along the river there are very high. If those levees collapsed or were overtopped by storm surge, those towns don't exist any more... :(

The western side of the river seems to have had a lot of wind damage and some flooding along the southern shores of Lake Pontchartrain, but the majority of the NO central urban area seems to have escaped with mostly wind damage (which is bad enough - thousands of windows blown out, roofs off, electricity out, pumps and drainage systems not working, etc.). As expected, the flooding that has occured has polluted the fresh water system, so a boil advisory is in effect, and will probably stay that way for several weeks. Fire-ant colonies that were drowned out are now swimming around, looking for anything solid to climb onto, and the same goes for snakes, etc. There are reports of some folks being admitted to hospital with really, really bad ant bites, as the fire-ants decided to climb the same structures the people were using for support. Ouch!

Up here in the Alexandria area, we definitely lucked out. The western side of the storm came within 20 miles, but didn't come overhead. Again, the eastward jog that Katrina took during the small hours of this morning saved us. It was wierd looking at local radar, seeing the solid band of wind and rain brushing right up against the eastern part of the metropolitan area, but staying just off to the side. We're all breathing a sigh of relief (or two, or three...).

My guests relieved me of responsibility for the kids late this morning, so I was able to sleep this afternoon. They're planning on raiding a local restaurant tonight, and will head back to the NO area tomorrow morning. I've warned them that they won't be allowed to go back, but they want to be closer than here (four-and-a-half hour's drive away), and plan on camping out near Baton Rouge, so that as soon as they're notified that they can return, they'll have less than an hour's drive. They're worried about looters plundering their homes (with reason - some looting has already been reported). Two families are well-armed to protect themselves, but others of the greater blissninny persuasion are not armed. They've asked me to loan them weapons, but since they have no familiarity, training or experience with them, I've had to refuse. If they'd stay on a day or two to let me teach them something, that would be different: but they won't, so I won't.

Thanks to all who prayed for us. The problems are only just beginning, in many ways, but I think we were spared a major catastrophe. If that eyewall had tracked just five miles further to the west... :eek:

Stauble
August 29, 2005, 08:17 PM
i saw that guy with the crowbar on the news too Hawkmoon.
ive been though many hurricanes (andrew georges floyd irene frances jeanee and now Katrina) but i still think that if i had to go through a natural disaster id rather have these. tornados are shorter (ive been though one of those too), but they come out of nowere without any warning and destroy everything in thier path. blizards and ice storms shut you in your house for long periods, often times without power wen its freezing outside. earthquakes come with no warning wat so ever and the big ones kill alot more then the big hurricanes do.
and unlike the people in california were they have eathquakes, ppl in GA SC NC AL LA MS TX and Florida all get to keep thier guns (sorry to rub it in)

craig
August 29, 2005, 08:22 PM
preacherman.. glad you made it okay. as for the people who decided to stay, you made your choice so live or die with it. tough, but there it is. sometimes stupid decisions can be fatal. people need to understand that. a lot of people have been sheltered/coddled their whole lives, and when they are faced with a major event like this they don't have a clue.if they don't have a way out, that's different. if they do and they're stupid enough to stay, they get no sympathy from me.

Hawkmoon
August 29, 2005, 08:27 PM
Two families are well-armed to protect themselves, but others of the greater blissninny persuasion are not armed. They've asked me to loan them weapons, but since they have no familiarity, training or experience with them, I've had to refuse. If they'd stay on a day or two to let me teach them something, that would be different: but they won't, so I won't.
I honestly don't think I would lend a weapon even if they DID know how to use it. Once the weapon passes off my property under the control of someone other than myself, I rather suspect that a "transfer" has taken place. That's problem number one. Problem number two is that it is still my gun, and that means I'm probably likely to be held liable for anyone "it" kills, even though it's 4-1/2 hours to the south and in someone else's temporary custody.

I might think about it a little longer if the petitioner was my brother ... but I'd probably still say no. Sister isn't a problem ... her husband has nicer guns than I do.

Rembrandt
August 29, 2005, 08:34 PM
Watching the hurricane coverage when it suddenly hit me why many didn't seek shelter in the Super Dome...wonder if they were criminals, druggies and drunks? Those with arrest warrants, drug and alcohol habits who knew they couldn't take contraband to the shelters....

Bob F.
August 29, 2005, 09:53 PM
Wasn't until just a short while ago that I realized I'd left the final "a" off of "Katrina". Kind of a minor thing, huh?

Lot's of people with absolutely nothing left, maybe not even their loved ones!

God bless 'em. Bad times ahead for a lot of folks.

Just heard the Gov. of Mississippi. "...deal with looters very harshly!" My thoughts exactly. I can see people scrounging to live, but why carry off a TV set when you might not have power for six months. Lock and load!

Stay safe.
Bob

Stauble
August 29, 2005, 10:00 PM
Bob F
the national guard will probably be out in the streets watchin for that very soon.
i went down to homestead wich was ground zero after Andrew hit the next day and they were all over handing out MREs to ppl

simon
August 30, 2005, 11:28 AM
Saw on the news that lots of those as*hats that went to the superdome got out and immediatly went looting afterwards,what morons...... :fire:
And I agree,if one decides to "ride it out" and gets fu...messed up,then they made a bad decision and will have to deal with it :cuss:
Call it culling the herd...

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