Ok, what's up with 'bird flu'?


PDA






Fletchette
October 4, 2005, 07:35 PM
Almost every day I hear someone fretting about "bird flu". As I understand it, this disease has managed to kill a handfull of people world-wide, and all of these quasi-government health types are worried it will mutate into a strain that can be transmitted human to human.

Aren't there a whole bunch of diseases that might mutate into something more harmful? Remember all the ruckus about swine flu years ago? What's all the hubbub about?

If you enjoyed reading about "Ok, what's up with 'bird flu'?" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!
308win
October 4, 2005, 07:56 PM
I believe in a limited number of cases the virus has been documented in humans (Thailand I think) and is believed to have 'jumped' from birds to humans. The hypothesis that this virus if it were to mutate on a broad scale and jump to humans would initiate a pandemic that could spread world wide in 30 days because of the easy access to world wide travel and potentially kill 150MM. The last pandemic (Spanish Flu) killed 20+MM but I believe it took several months to spread world wide.

rick_reno
October 4, 2005, 07:57 PM
It's an example of what happens when Mr. Chicken Little gets a spot on the prime time news. Do you know anyone with "bird flu"? I doubt it.
A populace in a constant state of fear is easy to manage.

Lone_Gunman
October 4, 2005, 08:03 PM
We are about 20 years overdue for a major flu pandemic. It may or may not be the bird flu. Sooner or later, it will happen, and millions will die.

Our hospital has already stockpiled addition Tamiflu, as well as influenza vaccines.

Its very possible though that widespread bird flu will never happen. The public health people are taking this very seriously.

Chaz
October 4, 2005, 08:04 PM
Forget bird flu, what about this?!?!

http://reuters.myway.com/article/20051004/2005-10-04T185015Z_01_DIT460356_RTRIDST_0_NEWS-BUSH-BIRDFLU-DC.html

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President George W. Bush asked Congress on Tuesday to consider giving him powers to use the military to enforce quarantines in case of an avian influenza epidemic.

He said the military, and perhaps the National Guard, might be needed to take such a role if the feared H5N1 bird flu virus changes enough to cause widespread human infection.

"If we had an outbreak somewhere in the United States, do we not then quarantine that part of the country? And how do you, then, enforce a quarantine?" Bush asked at a news conference.

"It's one thing to shut down airplanes. It's another thing to prevent people from coming in to get exposed to the avian flu. And who best to be able to effect a quarantine?" Bush added.

"One option is the use of a military that's able to plan and move. So that's why I put it on the table. I think it's an important debate for Congress to have."

Bird flu has killed more than 60 people in four Asian nations since late 2003 and has been found in birds in Russia and Europe.

Experts fear that the H5N1 bird flu virus, which appears to be highly fatal when it infects people, will develop the ability to pass easily from person to person and would cause a pandemic that would kill millions.

"And I think the president ought to have all ... assets on the table to be able to deal with something this significant," Bush said.

He noted that some governors may object to the federal government commandeering the National Guard, which is under state command in most circumstances.

POLICE DUTIES BANNED

"But Congress needs to take a look at circumstances that may need to vest the capacity of the president to move beyond that debate. And one such catastrophe or one such challenge could be an avian flu outbreak," Bush said.

The active duty military is currently forbidden from undertaking law enforcement duties by the federal Posse Comitatus Act.

That law, passed in 1878 after the U.S. Civil War, does not prohibit National Guard troops under state control from doing police work. But, unless the law is changed, it would keep them from doing so if they were activated by Washington under federal control.

While the law allows the president to order the military to take control and do police work in an extreme emergency, the White House has been traditionally reluctant to usurp state powers.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman told reporters he was not aware of any current planning by the military to help respond to a flu pandemic.

But he noted that after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated the Gulf region, Bush had asked Congress to consider giving the military control over initial response in dealing with major natural or other domestic disasters.

"Obviously the (Defense) Department has a tremendous amount of capability in a lot of areas. And we are a large force," Whitman said, noting also that the military had deployed field hospitals to Louisiana after the hurricanes.

Health experts are working to develop vaccines that would protect against the H5N1 strain of flu, because current influenza vaccines will not.

And countries are also developing stockpiles of drugs that can reduce the risk of serious disease or even sometimes prevent infection -- but supplies and manufacturing capacity are both limited.

Bush said he was involved in planning for an influenza pandemic, which experts say will definitely come, although they cannot predict when, or whether it will be H5N1 or some other virus.

Someone remind me which country I live in. I have no words to express the shock of hearing these words from this man. Are we just children to them now? I voted for and supported this man for a long time but now I am beginning to question my choice. What is up with the nanny state bull dink?

I guess the old maxim is true;

"Power corrupts... absolute power corrupts absolutly"

Scary times my friends. :banghead: :fire: :cuss: :mad:

rick_reno
October 4, 2005, 08:10 PM
Our hospital has already stockpiled addition Tamiflu, as well as influenza vaccines.

Tamiflu - why? It's reported to not be effective.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1806010,00.html

Experts in Hong Kong gave warning yesterday that the human H5N1 virus which surfaced in northern Vietnam this year was showing resistance to Tamiflu, the drug widely considered the best chance of protecting the population.

marshall3
October 4, 2005, 08:10 PM
Totalitarianism is coming. It's not here yet, but the tide is definitely moving in that direction. What sort of USA will our grandchildren inherit from us? Can the tide be stopped? I'm pessimistic. There are just too many people in the USA who expect the Federal government to take care of them. Both the GOP and the DEMs will be happy to oblige.

EasternShore
October 4, 2005, 08:11 PM
Repeal of the Posse Comitatus Act is my boiling point. It should be everyones IMO. At that time congress critters might as well hand the president his nice little dictatorship on a silver platter. I can't believe I voted for Bush. :barf:

Lone_Gunman
October 4, 2005, 08:37 PM
Tamiflu - why? It's reported to not be effective

Because that is all there is really. We ordered this a couple of months ago, well before the article you cite was published.

Everyone is screwed if Tamiflu doesnt work.

Jmurman
October 4, 2005, 08:43 PM
Just make sure you have food for a couple of months and practice really safe medical precautions...masks...wash hands etc.

Kharn
October 4, 2005, 08:45 PM
Replace every mention of 'bird flu' with 'biological warfare' and I think you have a more accurate idea of what they're thinking about. :uhoh:

Kharn

Biker
October 4, 2005, 08:47 PM
Good God, Kharn. I think you nailed it.
Biker

Jim March
October 4, 2005, 09:08 PM
Folks, this bug has a 50% mortality rate once it jumps to humans.

Right now the only transmission method is bird-to-human. If it goes human-to-human, the reality is it'll be BAD. Could make the Spanish Influenza look like a head cold.

Bad enough to justify use of the military.

XLMiguel
October 4, 2005, 09:16 PM
BusinessWeek had an article about avian flu in their disaster issue (2 wks ago?). Mr March is correct, 50% mortality rate, incubation period is rumored to be 5-10 days, so if someone is carrying or contageous, it isn't immediately apparent, tracking the source could be 'interesting'. Tamiflu is also in limited supply and limited production, it has one source in Europe. Not a pretty prospect IF it makes the leap.

Biker
October 4, 2005, 09:21 PM
50%? Jesus....Got a link? I hope not...
Biker

12-34hom
October 4, 2005, 09:34 PM
Is the sky REALLY falling?

From a reference about the flu to a possible dictatorship all in the matter of 15 replies to this thread....... :banghead:

Salute, present tinfoil hats.

12-34hom.

Alex45ACP
October 4, 2005, 09:35 PM
Replace every mention of 'bird flu' with 'biological warfare' and I think you have a more accurate idea of what they're thinking about.

Probably initiated by our own government. What better pretext under which to launch the police state?

Is the sky REALLY falling?

From a reference about the flu to a possible dictatorship all in the matter of 15 replies to this thread.......

Salute, present tinfoil hats.

Did you notice Jorge's comments about using the military to enforce qurantines?

EasternShore
October 4, 2005, 09:35 PM
Bad enough to justify use of the military.

Nope, not even with a 50% mortality rate. The Military's mission is to wage war. period. We have forgotten that all to often since the end of the cold war, yet it is the mission the military trains for to this day. The reason we justified a large miltary was as a deterent. Not to quarantine communities.

Quite simply a military quarantine is going to result in even more deaths as soldiers are not trained to deal with those situations. What sort of ROE does a soldier get when pulling this duty? Shoot anyone that leaves the area? Including unarmed civilians?

Yea that makes me feel warm and fuzzy. I'd preffer to use the same money and resources to get the DOCs, CDC, WHO rolling...At least they aren't going to shoot me.

BTW I am a former soldier.

Kharn
October 4, 2005, 09:47 PM
Easternshore:
Quite simply a military quarantine is going to result in even more deaths as soldiers are not trained to deal with those situations. What sort of ROE does a soldier get when pulling this duty? Shoot anyone that leaves the area? Including unarmed civilians?Every soldier is trained how to man a post, wear NBC protective equipment and not allow anyone to pass his position without proper credentials or authorization.

Telling them to don their suits and masks, load their weapons and set up check points at all major roads crossing state lines with the intention of letting no one (or some, per the ROE, but thats not for some Private to figure out, some officer would figure that stuff out for him) pass would be easily understood by the troops. Most likely illegal, but the tasks are within the things every soldier is trained to do.

Kharn

EasternShore
October 4, 2005, 10:00 PM
the tasks are within the things every soldier is trained to do.

Very true, but that doesn't mean even the lowest private will execute the orders. Though many will, much like the Nazis. And when the shooting starts and makes the six o'clock news then what? Do we continue to be sheep? do we take a stand? how much of a stand can a nation make against it's own military? I suspect not enough, because once you start shooting civilians where does the military draw the line? Small arms only? Moab to "sanitize an area"? Hell nuke any infected community so as to stop the spread? How in a free country can the military be considered as part of the solution to a public health crisis?

Byron Quick
October 4, 2005, 10:05 PM
Resistant is not necessarily equivalent to ineffective.

A possibly infected person is leaving a quarantined area. If infected, he will infect your neighbors who will in turn infect you and your family. You really want to let him out of the quarantined area because he's unarmed? If he's infected with a virus that carries a 50% fatality rate then he's armed. Take a look at your family. Divide by 2.

I don't want to see Posse Comitatus repealed or weakened. However, there are possible threats where quarantine is the best response for the safety of uninfected regions.

The alternative to having quarantined infected areas is having an unquarantined infected country.

EasternShore
October 4, 2005, 10:17 PM
I am not saying a quarntine would not be needed but that is the job of local law enforcement and the Nation Guard if needed, under the control of local government. Not the repeal of Posse Comitatus. That is specifically what Bush was talking about. More important than even a quarntine is public education and notification. Remember the SARS outbreak? WHO and CDC jumped all over it and no quarantine of a state or major metropolitan area was needed. People do have common sense. Such an outbreak I suspect would scare people in to avoiding unneccesary contact and certainly make folks leary of traveling. As for infected areas and the mobility of influenza, ye speople would flee, and help would be needed to contain those fleeing. So set up medical shelters that are quarantine sites, if you wish to leave an infected area you go to that facility. Once you recieve a clean bill of health no problem continue on your way. But the US military is not needed in that situation IMO.

Tokugawa
October 4, 2005, 10:21 PM
This has been my favorite subject for a few years now. It is always good for a "you are nuts, no-one is sick" sort of response. This is because most folks have never researched the 1918 epidemic.- go on, do a google search.
The US alone lost six hundred thousand dead in 2 years. NY city lost thirty thousand dead. This flu was thought to have mutated from an avian flu. The death rate was about 2 percent of those infected. Translated to today, this mortality rate equates to one million, eight hundred thousand persons dead in the US. To date, the current H5N1 flu in asia is having (depending on the strain) between 20% and 100% mortality in those infected. Do the math.
An Aleut village in Alaska , seeing the complete destruction of thier nieghboring villages from the 1918 flu, stationed riflemen to warn, then shoot, any outside visiters. They survived.

To translate to the brethren here- to say the avian flu is not important because "no one I know has died" or " I'll believe it when I see it", is exactly the same as "don't worry, it's not loaded".

Jim March
October 4, 2005, 10:25 PM
Try this google search:

avian flu 50% mortality

Example:

-----------
An even more dangerous flu is an ocean away.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Washington is closely monitoring an avian flu that is spreading among birds in Russia and Asia. It has ordered mass production of a vaccine scientists believe can stop that particular strain of flu.

"We've never seen anything like this," Webber says. "Our bodies have no immunity to it, and the current flu vaccines won't work against it. The mortality rate is 50 to 80 percent. If it ever came to the point where it could be readily transmitted person to person, we would be in big trouble."

The World Health Organization's official count of human infection is 112 cases with 57 deaths.

http://www.clarionledger.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051004/FEAT07/510040337/1242
-----------

This is some serious stuff, folks. We are looking at a potential for chaos that *only* the military could possibly cope with.

On edit: found a good factual link:

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/health/tm_objectid=16147273&method=full&siteid=50082&headline=avian-flu---facts-and-fiction--name_page.html

dasmi
October 4, 2005, 10:29 PM
Wasn't SARS supposed to kill us all a few years ago?

EasternShore
October 4, 2005, 10:44 PM
Dasmi,

My point exactly! Or Ebola Reston, or Influenza, or terrorist, or...that neighbor of yours that owns a gun.

Risk is inherent in liberty and freedom.

Jim, WHO has a count of 112 human cases and 57 deaths? Washington DC has a higher homicide rate and they have already banned firearms!

Jim and Tokugawa,

People will still get sick and die. sooner or later some super virus or meteor or other disaster is going to kill everyone. So that is a reason to repeal one of the few laws this country has to keep it's cheif executive from declaring martial law and using the military as a personal police force?

For me and again this is my belief and opinion meaning it is not fact for you or anyone else, but for me it is true:

I will accept the risk of some terrible outbrake or disaster to remain secure in what freedom I have left. I will not trade the illusion of security for the risk of tyranny. I understand that I may die in a car accident tomorrow as I drive to work and I am at peace with my mortality, I am not at peace with fallible men passing or repealing laws to afford for protection that I am best to euipped to provide for myself.

Sindawe
October 4, 2005, 10:54 PM
Interesting links Jim. I'm more knowledgeable about the business end of influenza (viral usurpation of host cell metabolism, genome repoduction and encapsulation) than in modes of transmission. I wonder if the use of surgical masks and respirators would be usefull precautionary items during an outbreak or pandemic. Like we used to see worn in Japan during high pollution days. I have no problem wearing such gear in public. 'Specially if its in ever fashionable black. :evil:

Yea, visions of the movie "Outbreak" have been running through my head as well. I suspect that if I were in a quarantine area, I'd not attempt to leave. I don't have kids, so thats not a factor, and I understand WHY an area around an outbreak would be quarentined.

Byron Quick
October 4, 2005, 11:03 PM
Jim, WHO has a count of 112 human cases and 57 deaths? Washington DC has a higher homicide rate and they have already banned firearms!

DC has a murder rate higher than 50%, huh? Source, please?

Tokugawa
October 4, 2005, 11:09 PM
Now for the really un PC comment- A flu that kills 95 percent of the worlds human population may be better in the long run for the planet and it's creatures- saving it from the long slow extinction and suffication by overpopulation. A friend went to Ethiopia recently and the picture of mile after mile of 1/4 acre farms, all devoted to producing enough food to feed the occupants of the one hut on it was a terrifing vison of the future. No electricity, no surplus, no books, no ideas, no hope- just a bag of grain and another year to live and breed. Hmmm, just occured to me I probably do not fit in the "optimistic sector", hey?!

Standing Wolf
October 4, 2005, 11:13 PM
A friend went to Ethiopia recently and the picture of mile after mile of 1/4 acre farms, all devoted to producing enough food to feed the occupants of the one hut on it was a terrifing vison of the future. No electricity, no surplus, no books, no ideas, no hope- just a bag of grain and another year to live and breed.

That's Ethiopia. Drive across Iowa some time, and you'll see real agriculture in action.

Sindawe
October 4, 2005, 11:26 PM
That's Ethiopia. Drive across Iowa some time, and you'll see real agriculture in action. Don't forget the infrastructure that is required to support that kind of agriculture Standing Wolf. All the other folks who find/extract/refine/ship/sell the fuel to run the equipment. All the other folks who are needed to find/extract/refine/manufacutre/ship/maintain the equipment that burns the fuel to grow the food. All the other folks who are needed to process the food, can/freeze/dry it, ship it to the stores for us to buy. All the other folks who are needed to organize and run such a complex system of production.A flu that kills 95 percent of the worlds human population may be better in the long run for the planet and it's creatures- saving it from the long slow extinction and suffication by overpopulation. True, but I doubt our technology dependent lifestyle would survive such an event.

Lobotomy Boy
October 4, 2005, 11:29 PM
Wasn't SARS supposed to kill us all a few years ago?

Nope. Sars wasn't even close to what a pandemic like this would be like. I forget the actual death rate from SARS, but it was below ten percent.

I agree that a pandemic will suck for us but ultimately be best for the planet. I don't expect to survive such an event--I seem to get every damned flu that passes through town.

musher
October 4, 2005, 11:31 PM
The real problem, as I understand it, is that influenza viruses of all stamps mutate rapidly. That's why you've gotta get a new flu vaccine every year.

The worry is that the avian strain is jumping from birds to humans right now. Every infected human is a BIG experiment for the avian flu. Lots and lots of variations of this thing are being produced every time a person gets it. Eventually (goes the concern) one of these variations will succeed in jumping from human to human. When that happens we're in a spot of trouble, assuming the same mutation hasn't dramatically reduced the mortality rate.

Most other lethal viruses haven't shown quite the adaptability as the influenzas so they don't carry quite the risk of suddenly being able to infect a large proportion of the worlds population.

Yeah, we got too many folks on this world, but a 50% reduction will be hard to take for everyone.

longeyes
October 5, 2005, 12:05 AM
No Black Death, no end of feudalism, no Renaissance. :D

rick_reno
October 5, 2005, 01:18 AM
The worry is that the avian strain is jumping from birds to humans right now.

Yes, in small numbers and in people who have VERY close contact with birds. There are instances of it occurring in family clusters, which suggest it can jump human to human - but again only to those in very close contact with the infected person. Experts put the risk of a pandemic this flu season at about 10% - I'm not going to spend a significant amount of time on something with that small probability of happening. What it hasn't done - and may or may not do - is make the jump for easy human to human infection. While we should remain vigilant, this virus could mutate into something harmless and go away - or it could go the other way and infect large numbers of people and wipe 5% (worst case models) of the earths population out.

Tamiflu is not the only thing available. It's been shown to reduce the spread of the virus in an infected person - in layman terms it slows it down enough to hopefully give the body time to respond. Two others are looking good; one made by Chiron Corp. and another by the Sanofi Pasteur Corp. which is further along. The one made by Sanofi Pasteur is produced from the virus isolated in a patient in Vietnam with a gene removed to make it harmless. I don't know enough about where the Chiron drug is in it's test cycles to comment. Computer models indicated that a pandemic could be stifled within about a week with drugs and quarantines, but you have to realize that NONE of these drugs are available in quantity - and other nations have orders in ahead of the US.

Libertyteeth
October 5, 2005, 01:47 AM
It would be wise to have on hand remedies which could be taken at home at the first sign of exposure. Even with a highly virulent flu strain, it might make the difference between life and death.

The Life Extension Foundation has a protocol for treating influenza with over the counter vitamins, herbs and supplements. I keep this on hand. For "normal" flu, I think LEF claims it cuts the duration in half, and I have experienced this personally. See:

http://www.lef.org/protocols/prtcl-051.shtml

If you can render your family even somewhat independent of the authorities and the medical establishment, that is a good thing.

Moparmike
October 5, 2005, 01:59 AM
Is this the same bird flu that was supposed to not jump easily to humans, but easily to pigs which then mutated to something that just loved to infect humans and cause all sorts of chaos?

Silent-Snail
October 5, 2005, 02:01 AM
EasternShore, Ebola Zaire, Sudan and their close relative Marburg are lethal
to humans up to 90%ish. Last I heard Reston has no serious negative effects on humans. CDC seems to agree with me. Has anybody heard of Ebola Ivory Coast?

Taurus 66
October 5, 2005, 02:08 AM
Judging by all the hype in the media, the mundaine rubbish George (Peepers) Bush pukes out to the American public about us winning the war on terror, the typical biological scare tactics, and members of various websites paranoid about a totalitarianist US government in the works, I do declare ... Al Qaeda is winning more every day. Citizens vs the government suits them well ... for now. They are waiting for the point to boil over into an all out civil war - when we as a nation would be at our weakest against foreign enemies.

c_yeager
October 5, 2005, 02:16 AM
The "bird flu" means that we havent been attacked by terrorists in awhile, and most of the country lives outside of the hurricane zone. Its the new thing that your supposed to be afraid of so that you dont question things you arent supposed to question.

No go wrap your houses in plastic and stop thinking so much.

beerslurpy
October 5, 2005, 02:16 AM
It is probably the more recent one. It broke out again a few years ago.

I dont think anything has come close to the 88 percent of Ebola Zaire. Ebola almost certainly has some wild reservoir that occaisionally makes the jump to humans. It is too deadly to be a naturally occurring human virus. For it to survive in the human population for 40 years (it has been breaking out sporadically for decades) it would have to be far less deadly than it currently is.

H5N1 could be nasty, but it would quickly become domesticated in the sense that after a few weeks the only surviving strains would be the varieties that didnt kill their hosts. You could safely contract those variants and you would be granted immunity from the nasty for free.

Living in such a small world can be very bad when bugs like this cross over species.

Thin Black Line
October 5, 2005, 02:35 AM
http://www.thehighroad.org/showpost.php?p=1951721&postcount=8

EasternShore
October 5, 2005, 07:45 AM
Byron, I was reffering to hard number not the percentages, I was attempting to illustrate the point of how small the numbers truly are yet Bush uses it to get congress thinking about giving him more power. That is what truly scares me, you can say I am wearing a tinfoil hat if you like but no president that I amaware of has ever had as much power as Bush ad he keeps asking for more. I fear what he would do if Posse Comitatus were repealed. And that is what he has asked congress to consider. I truly suspect the White House is trying to feel out public opinion on the use of US troops against US citizens. It just seems to me Bush uses continual scare tactics to do this sort of thing. As I stated before, there is always something that is going to kill us all, I tried to provoke thouht by being a little absurd it seems some folk take everything literally. Let me end by trying to provoke more thought:

What security and protection do we gain from repealing Posse Comitatus? Will it stop a virulant outbreak?

Derek Zeanah
October 5, 2005, 08:35 AM
You know, there are a number of things that could be really really bad for the US: This avian flu, if it mutates just right
Ebola, if it mutates just right
A meteor impact
A coordinated terrorist attack
A terrorist attack where they have nukes
A terrorist attack where they have nukes and the ability to generate an air burst that maximizes EMP effects
HIV, if it mutates just right
A monetary collapseI bet the membership could list a few dozen other things without any thought. Here's the deal though: we live in an age where our government uses fear to generate support for the continual erosion of our liberties. It will continue to do so, and when "terrorism" and the fear of bearded dark-skinned men in white dresses fades away, they'll grab another source to use to continue the slow increase of power.

I for one don't see how the elimination of the 130 year old rule limiting the domestic use of the military would really help in any of the above scenarios. Guys, we live in an age where anyone can be 6,000 miles away in less than a day, and where you simply can't completely isolate a population center without getting Katrina/New Orleans style results.

So, we've got Avian Flu in New Jersey. Great. Anyone think we can isolate New York for a month and get a less than 50% mortality rate while doing so? What about food, and fuel trucks, and the influx of the military folks themselves?

It won't make things better. If the cards we're dealt in the next few decades add up to "50% population loss -- go back four spaces", then I don't see how martial law on a national scale helps things even a little bit.

Chaz
October 5, 2005, 10:19 AM
I could not have said it better myself, Derek.

+1 for you.

grimlock
October 5, 2005, 10:24 AM
Yes, Derek is making entirely too much sense. Watch for black helicopters.

Bartholomew Roberts
October 5, 2005, 10:30 AM
For those interested in the subject, this month's National Geographic has an intriguing article on avian flu.

Jim March
October 5, 2005, 10:40 AM
EasternShore, Ebola Zaire, Sudan and their close relative Marburg are lethal to humans up to 90%ish. Last I heard Reston has no serious negative effects on humans. CDC seems to agree with me. Has anybody heard of Ebola Ivory Coast?

Those are bad bugs all right, but they aren't transmitted by air. Flu bugs ARE.

When you combine airborn transmission and a mortality rate past 50%, you've got a nightmare that dwarfs Ebola and the like.

Lennyjoe
October 5, 2005, 10:49 AM
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/1207_041207_birdflu.html

Thin Black Line
October 5, 2005, 12:05 PM
Grimlock wrote:
"Yes, Derek is making entirely too much sense. Watch for black helicopters."
-------------

I'm in one right now..... :evil:

sfhogman
October 5, 2005, 12:44 PM
Check this:
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0743203984/qid=1128530531/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/102-3186785-6742544?v=glance&s=books

308win
October 5, 2005, 04:58 PM
The military might be capable of enforcing a quarantine on an isolated area such as a subdivision with limited corridors of egress - but larger area such as a medium sized city or a state no way (well may be Hawaii). The military isn't effective in Iraq at controlling population movement and we are at least as inventive/creative at foiling the inconvenient as the Iraqis.

Several have nailed it this is just the Bush Cabals latest attempt at scaring the sheeple into giving up another layer of freedom in their pathetic search for complete security - just like peeling an onion.
That's Ethiopia. Drive across Iowa some time, and you'll see real agriculture in action.
Yes, but only at the cost of massive subsidies to produce product neither we nor the rest of the world can consume.

telewinz
October 5, 2005, 06:46 PM
This avian flu, if it mutates just right
As the weeks go by it appears less and less to be an if but increasingly a when? They (the feds) are already researching the 1918 flu pandemic for tips on how to cope with this "new" one. Where I work, plans for dealing with a pandemic are already being seriously discussed. My only question is will it peak this year or two years from now? My money is on two years from now with just a "minor" impact this year but increasing next year.

Byron Quick
October 5, 2005, 07:40 PM
The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos.

Yes, in small numbers and in people who have VERY close contact with birds.

Unfortunately, there is one family in Vietnam that has had no known contact with birds of any type. 50% mortality in the family.

20th century pandemics occurred in 1918, 1957, and 1968. Only the 1918 pandemic had catastrophic fatality rates.

There are so many variables that no one can predict when or how bad. It might be this year, next year, fifty years, or a hundred years.

Lobotomy Boy
October 5, 2005, 07:53 PM
I'd rather die of the flu then live in a police state.

Sindawe
October 5, 2005, 08:09 PM
The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos. Source? I'd like to follow up on that.

EasternShore
October 5, 2005, 08:16 PM
I am glad to see many agree with what I was trying to say, that Posse Comitatus being repealed or altered will not stop any pandemic. It's not like soldiers aren't gonna get sick. Which left me wondering why Bush and this administration, whom by their own admission have been talking about this for a month or more, would want to repeal the law. Then I saw this tidbit:

"I think the president ought to have all options on the table," Bush said, then corrected himself, "all assets on the table -- to be able to deal with something this significant."

:what:

Freudian slip? I know it may not seem like much of a difference but in military speak options and assets are a huge difference.

lostone1413
October 5, 2005, 08:28 PM
Is their any doubt in your mind King George is doing everything in his power to destroy the Constitution and setup a Police State?

telewinz
October 5, 2005, 08:40 PM
Source? I'd like to follow up on that.The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos. I just watched a news report saying the same thing. The 1918 flu was an avian flu also, only 1% mutation was required to transfer to humans. NO vacine exists but they are working on it. About 100 million died from the last avian flu pandemic (no one was immune then either) but was a count made of 3rd world countries? Bare in mind, our medical technology is much more advanced now.

Sindawe
October 5, 2005, 09:16 PM
Source? I'd like to follow up on that. OK, I found a link to an article. This is from the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/3719990.stm). Its published in the journal Nature.

Mr.V.
October 17, 2005, 03:00 AM
The scientists have just announced recreating the 1918 Spanish flu virus. It's a mutated avian flu. It kills fertilized bird embryos. Ordinary flu virii don't. The avian flu that is causing concern now also kills fertilized bird embryos.

That's not really the issue though...There has been a lot of bad information going around about what is an "avian" flu. So I'll try to sum this up as simply as possible.

Influenza (or flu) is always an "avian flu". Birds have every type of influenza known. Most don't kill the birds. They live infected with it just fine. And they spread it to each other and all of us by crapping everywhere. Everywhere there is bird crap there is probably some influenza. Even whales and seals get influenza from bird-crap. Humans, so far, have only been infected in large (epidemic/pandemic proportions) from 3 of the 16 different types of "avian flus".

The big hub-bub is that there is evidence that an additional bird virus will infect us. THAT is the worry and a good cause for alarm because it's a type of influenza that can cause very serious infection in birds, and based on a limited outbreak in 1997, a very serious infection in humans. Hence the hype, hub-bub, worry, terror, etc. It is also very different from the 1918 flu...

The different types of influenza are usually based on the sequence of two proteins that the virus makes: hemagglutinin and neuraminidase. You'll see references to H2N3 and H2N2 and H1N1. They are all the different versions of those two proteins. Without getting two much into what the proteins do, they are essential in the virus infecting us. The virus sets up shop in our lungs and starts destroying them. To beat the infection our body makes proteins called antibodies which block those viral proteins from functioning. However, the virus evolves to once again hide somewhat from the antibodies (whether you prefer by natural selection or intelligent design). That's why every year there is a flu season. Invariably some of us get stuck in bed, some feel like they're going to die, and many many people actually die a year from influenza and subsequent illness from a secondary infection. They are usually very young or very old and their bodies can't fight the influenza effectively before it causes serious damage to the lungs. Once you have serious lung damage, pneumonia typically will set in and cause death.

The spanish flu was of course an "avian flu" like every other flu. It was designated H1N1. It killed a lot more young adults-middle aged people than influenza normally does. For some reason it was more virulent. The Oct 7 issue of the journal Science has a research article about why it was virulent where researches remade the 1918 strain and infected mice to explore how it was different.

This new scary "avian flu" is designtated H5N1. Compared to other flus birds infected with H5N1 die in record numbers. There are two types of H5N1, "highly pathogenic" and "low pathogenic". The "highly pathogenic" strain has a mutation in its hemagglutinin protein (that's the H in H5N1) that creates a unique function that makes it especially lethal. Instead of the virus being stuck in a certain type of tissue (like the lung in humans), the highly pathogenic HA can be activated anywhere in the body. (The spanish flu does NOT have this mutation. It made mince-meat out of peoples' lungs but by most accounts was not systemic). This, among many other factors, contributes significantly to the virulence of H5N1.

The scare is that unlike the normal flu viruses humans are used to H1NX H2NX and H3NX which are respiratory diseases, H5 could theoretically be a systemic disease. Some isolates of H5N1 when introduced to mice (who have a similar response to influenza as humans do) cause systemic disease and high lethality. To be fair, some of the isolates only caused mild respiratory infections in mice. Therefore other factors besides the H5 with its systemic potential is responsible for actually causing virulent systemic disease.

However, if we do end up with a highly contageous human-to-human H5N1 that has the systemic potential factor and those miscelaneous factors required for virulence, it will make the spanish flu look about as bad as a head-cold. IF IF IF IF IF IF IF.

I do however have my tin-foil hat at the ready. If I'm dying I'll pretty much try anything just in case.

Oh and besides eating bird crap, the most common way people get even "airboune" influenza is picking their nose, rubbing their eyes etc, before washing their hands and not from aerosol particles. I'd recommend rather than stockpiling tamiflu (oseltamivir) which will probably do as much good as tic-tacs, is a hearty supply of 70% isopropanol or ethanol alcohol and squirt bottles. 70% ethanol/isopropyl alcohol is virucidal for influenza. That way you can liberally spray down everything you come in contact with and your hands frequently and massively lower your risk of influenza infection.

Just a tip.

References:

why the spanish flu H1N1 is so virulent:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/310/5745/77

H5N1 replicates systemically:
http://jvi.asm.org/cgi/content/full/73/4/3184

general info about the bird flu:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/gen-info/facts.htm

Influenza is an "emerging disease" as there are so many that we have yet to get infected with. Makes you feel warm and fuzzy inside =)
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol4no3/webster.htm

more can be found using google etc, but be wary of the source...

Jmurman
October 17, 2005, 05:35 AM
Mr V, thanks for the info!

Mr.V.
October 17, 2005, 05:51 AM
EasternShore--

I agree. The army will NOT stop a pandemic. And if 1918 is any example, it's probably going to hit THEM harder than anyone else...

Mr.V.
October 17, 2005, 06:03 AM
I think my previous post has a problem in the way it reads. I don't want to give the impression that most human influenza is transmitted by bird-feces. Most human influenza infections arise from other humans. However, at some point the virus jumped from birds to humans. Many times it jumps first to pigs (being mammals therefore have far more genetic similarity to us than birds) and then from pigs to humans (but occasionally straight from birds and their crap). Sometimes it retains an ability to infect from human to human (mostly through coughing and touching doorhandles etc and picking our noses as opposed to eating our crap =). And then it's go time...

Nematocyst
October 17, 2005, 06:08 AM
Mr. V, post #61: well done.

Interesting how many of these bird flu threads are going on simultaneously. Here's another one. (http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=159685)

Fletchette
October 18, 2005, 01:02 AM
Oh and besides eating bird crap, the most common way people get even "airboune" influenza is picking their nose, rubbing their eyes etc, before washing their hands and not from aerosol particles. I'd recommend rather than stockpiling tamiflu (oseltamivir) which will probably do as much good as tic-tacs, is a hearty supply of 70% isopropanol or ethanol alcohol and squirt bottles. 70% ethanol/isopropyl alcohol is virucidal for influenza. That way you can liberally spray down everything you come in contact with and your hands frequently and massively lower your risk of influenza infection.

Very informative. Thank you.

So it seems to me that if the news suddenly starts talking about an epidemic, the best thing one can do is to hole up at home, reduce contact with outsiders to an absolute minimum, and wash your hands frequently with 70%+ alcohol.

...and no nose-picking! :neener:

Mr.V.
October 18, 2005, 04:56 AM
Flechette--
yeah but the trouble with holeing up is that the virus can incubate up to 7 days and takes a while to kill. This makes for a long illness period and therefore a long time before it "burns itself out". So you'll probably be stuck for at least a few months holed up. You're absolutely going to need to treat your water in case city services start to fail. So how does one treat water for that long? I'm curious because I don't know. I'd guess boil it but unfortunately for me that involves a gas stove or electricity, both of which I'm afraid won't be running for me.

Also I'm not sure how long you can use iodine capsules for? I'm sure there's a limit.

Also no eating bird crap :neener:

Nematocyst
October 18, 2005, 05:17 AM
You're absolutely going to need to treat your water in case city services start to fail. So how does one treat water for that long? IMO, this is a relevant question.

Just to put water in perpective...

The quickest way to death for humans (and most other aerobic creatures) is deprivation of oxygen. Four minutes without oxygen, thermodynamic equilibrium is reached, and life is over. (For an individual, of course. Others will continue.) Said O2 deprivation (mainly to brain) can occur for any variety of reasons: respiratory abatement (caused by, say, lung tissue being transformed to mincemeat by a mutated avian virus; failure of blood flow to brain caused by abatement of blood flow caused by rupture of heart or major arteries by bullets, knives, swords, that sort of thing.

After O2 deprivation (aside from being struck by a moving freight train or even a mere 18 wheeler, or a fanatical, fundamentalist terrorist wearing a dynamite shirt, or hypothermia caused by the fact that you bugged out in the middle of winter in (choose one or more: Alberta, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Idaho...) without your extra layers (fleece, sleeping bag, rain gear), the quickest way to death would be to go without water for a few days. Since you are between 70 & 85% water, doing without will spell your demise.

A distant third (or is this a fifth by now?) would be being without food. That could take as long as 10 days. Not as a important in my book as oxygen, warmth, water & sufficient rnds to ward off wierdos.

So, given that water is on the short list, I think your question is a good one.

Hmm. How to reduce viral loads in your water should city services fail. (See NOLA Katrina; note that Wilma is on the way, and Alpha could be next, perhaps followed by H5N1)

A few years ago, when the smallest threat to my drinking water while backpacking was giardia or bacteria, I filtered water with a Pur filter.

But they're reportedly no good at removing viruses. (In particular, iirc, they won't take out hepatitis A or B, so probably won't take out H5N1 or other flus.)

Dang. Short of boiling to disrupt their little transmembrane envelope proteins or core proteins, I'm not sure what to do.

Anybody got Hso's contact info? If we could get him to this thread, I'm willing to bet a snickers bar he'd have a suggestion.

Nem

Jmurman
October 18, 2005, 05:54 AM
Here is a good site on water.

http://www.grandpappy.info/wwater.htm

Nematocyst
October 18, 2005, 06:34 AM
Jmurman, that's an awesome page.

In the wake of what we saw during Katrina & Rita, & with Wilma on the way,
I'm planning to offer a Survival 101 workshop in my community.

That page will be a resource.

Thanks.

Nem

El Rojo
October 18, 2005, 09:37 AM
Ok, lets think about this whole thing.

First, if there were ever a pandemic big enough to warrant quarantine and the calling in of the army, this country would probably fall apart as we know it. Why? Think of how self-sufficient we are. Could you just cut off your community and live for months on your own? We are too dependent on everyone else in this world. What are people going to do when basic needs can't come across borders for months? You would hope we would adapt and figure something out, but how are you going to move the tons and tons of goods across without some contamination from the people doing the moving?

Second, if the issue above wasn't such a big deal, I say rely on the militia to take care of business. That is right, communities form their own check points and enforce them. Nothing would encourage consistency and compliance by the local militia more than knowing if you let this schmuck through, your family might die. Place the responsibility of enforcement on the people. If you let people through, your community dies. I would rather not have to rely on some 19 year old who is really just thinking about how his family is on the other side of the country and they might be dead to keep my neighborhood safe. Heck, even use local law enforcement as the "commanders" of these militia teams. Sure you have a centralized command, but leave the real grunt work to civilians. People will make shifts and make this thing happen.

That is what I would do if it were to happen. Organize enough people locally to tell the government, "Leave this to us, tell us the rules, but we will be enforcing them thank you. Your soldiers who just flew in from the other side of the country can stay there."

Thin Black Line
October 18, 2005, 12:59 PM
First, if there were ever a pandemic big enough to warrant quarantine and the calling in of the army, this country would probably fall apart as we know it. Why? Think of how self-sufficient we are. Could you just cut off your community and live for months on your own? We are too dependent on everyone else in this world. What are people going to do when basic needs can't come across borders for months? You would hope we would adapt and figure something out, but how are you going to move the tons and tons of goods across without some contamination from the people doing the moving?


Nah, wouldn't fall apart. You'd be surprised how easily people adapt to
soldiers in the streets. The thing about a pandemic is that most people
"bug in" at home. Why risk leaving a household where you're currently
not infected and run around outside and risk coming into contact with
the bugs?

Yes, I agree completely that people need other people. The people who
"go it alone" into the mountains with 6 months of supplies will typically
come back or be dead by the 7th.

A pandemic will slow things down and wreak havoc with the economy.
But, just like humanity has done numerous times before, we will come
back. Likewise, a pandemic will not hit globally all at the same time. As
one area is recovering another will be hit. You're looking at about two
weeks of problems followed by a few weeks of recovery back up to speed.

If our grandparents and great grandparents could come back from the
Spanish Flu in 1918, we can manage this one! Just be prudent in stocking
up on your supplies. If you live in a colder climate during the typical
flu season, this would mean making sure you have some backup heat
in case the propane guy can't come out to fill your tank.

Like Katrina should have shown people, lack of advance planning and our
own stupid reactions to things are what can harm us as well.

johnr
October 18, 2005, 07:24 PM
FYI, FWIW:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1399613/posts
Avian Flu Surveillance Project

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1453571/posts
Avian Flu Preparedness Project

http://avianflu.typepad.com/avianflu/
Avian Flu Blog

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/925970/posts
Strange new disease outbreaks

-30-
backhoe

RomanKnight
October 18, 2005, 08:14 PM
Besides doubling the thickness of the tinfoil hat, one thing we should all do is strengthen our imune system. Increase the ability of our bodies to fight the virus, once acquired. Sanitation, nutrition, vitamin supplements, are all important steps we can all take. It seems to me that these viruses thrive in the less developed countries, where standards of living are lower: food, water, sanitation, disease, medical care, are not on par with, let's say, the US ones. The 1918 outbreak came after the world was ravaged -and weakened- by four years of war, starvation, malnutrition, and people close together (refugees, army camps). The flu kills mostly old people and young children, those with already weakened imune systems. Eating a fast/junk food diet doesn't help...

Thin Black Line
May 4, 2006, 08:31 AM
Ooops. Looked up an old thread to post on a new thread and revived it.

Sorry!

Mr.V.
May 4, 2006, 02:18 PM
Nah, wouldn't fall apart. You'd be surprised how easily people adapt to
soldiers in the streets.
This assumes the soliders would be healthy. If it is really bad...soldiers and all will be sick. It'll be damn near impossible to successfully quarantine this thing anyways.

However, I completely agree with your point about society not falling apart. The "black death" was the best thing that happened to europe. It released it from the feudal system and the clutches of the then incredibly corrupt Catholic church (no comment on the current one =)


Also I never saw that water thing...at http://www.grandpappy.info/wwater.htm
it's interesting. I think the solar still isn't going to cut it...1 pint/24 hrs? eek. I like the distiller but you need a heat source and I'm not sure the gas company is going to be checking meters...

however, it got me into thinking...does anyone make a solar-powered heater that you could use to heat the water and distill it? Then that would be great...

Lobotomy Boy
May 4, 2006, 03:16 PM
Besides doubling the thickness of the tinfoil hat, one thing we should all do is strengthen our imune system. Increase the ability of our bodies to fight the virus, once acquired. Sanitation, nutrition, vitamin supplements, are all important steps we can all take. It seems to me that these viruses thrive in the less developed countries, where standards of living are lower: food, water, sanitation, disease, medical care, are not on par with, let's say, the US ones. The 1918 outbreak came after the world was ravaged -and weakened- by four years of war, starvation, malnutrition, and people close together (refugees, army camps). The flu kills mostly old people and young children, those with already weakened imune systems. Eating a fast/junk food diet doesn't help...

A flu pandemic would accomplish a mild thinning of the herd. The United States would not fare as well as many other developed countries because our immune systems are already compromised by our stressful lifestyles, which is why we have much higher incidences of diabetes, heart disease, and respiratory ailments than countries like England. But we would still fare much better than third world countries, which would be hit hard because of poor sanitation and hygiene.

I would think the military would be first in line to receive a limited supply of whatever medication is needed for whatever pandemic occurs. I agree that any disruption would be temporary, provided we weren't foolish enough to grant dictatorial powers to any one branch of the federal government.

Sistema1927
May 4, 2006, 03:28 PM
Rule of "4s":

You can die in 4 weeks without food

You can die in 4 days without water

You can die in 4 hours without proper shelter from the elements

You can die in 4 minutes without oxygen.

You can die in 4 seconds if you panic.

Right now, I see a bunch of fear mongering and attempts to induce panic related to the avian flu. Wonder why?

TamThompson
May 4, 2006, 05:37 PM
I'm a freelance writer, and I just finished ghostwriting an ebook on bird flu. I"ve been researching it for personal curiousity and here are my thoughts:

1. It's a very real threat. Yes, mind-boggling that it could infect up to 50% of Americans if it comes here AND if it goes human-to-human WITH a lethality rate of about 50%. Losing 1 out of 4 would make things come to a giant, screeching halt for a little while, tough thereafter. IMPORTANT: Just because, to my best intel, we dodged a bullet with Y2K and SARS, we should NOT get complacent and assume everything is overhyped B.S. Some is, some isn't. I don't think this is, but we'll see.

2. In the Spanish flu, people DID self-quarantine their towns and communities by using local militia and anyone they could to keep outsiders out. Generally, it worked well.

3. As of a few days ago, the CDC and WHO announced two worrisome facts: a) there are 4 avian flu viruses now with the potential to mutate and go human-to-human with disastrous effects, b) the virus has now mutated to survive well in warm, moist climates (look out, Houston.)

4. I'd rather be a year early than an hour late when the shelves start getting cleaned out. Those of you who've been through hurricanes know what I mean.

5. There's a major "scare the sheeple" TV movie coming out--I think it's May 7 or 9--on bird flu. Look for a SERIOUS dent in available preps for awhile after that.

6. All commercial canneries in the US are currently backordered 4-6 weeks on dehydrated food in good-sized quantities like #10 cans and the big 5-6 gallon pails. Mountain House, especially, due to large group buys.

7. The govt. knows more than it's letting on because nothing good will come of a panic.

8. I suspect this H5N1 flu virus may not be entirely natural. One of the UN's stated goals is population control (read: reduction.) How very convenient.

9. I also don't rule out a pretense for totalitarian martial law and control. Remember what Tommy Franks told us in that Cigar Afficionado interview, and substitute the word "pandemic" for "terror attack."

10. Regardless of who cooked this thing up or how, I'd suggest preparing.

STORING WATER: Do it the free way. Everytime I use a bottle that has a screw-on cap--water, soda, liquor, anything non-oil--I refill with tap water and add bleach at the rate of 1/2 eyedropper per 16 oz, and store out in the shade inside our barn.

neil minor
May 4, 2006, 05:53 PM
If some type of pandemic event does occur:

One of the biggest potential problems will be the fear levels and fear mongering. The evening news shows will probably cause a lot of panic. Education will be one of the best preventive measures - but it's hard to find reliable data.

I have read that the inexpensive masks found at WalMart/Home Depot are not very effective. As it's been mentioned in this thread, with most contagious diseases, hand washing will be very important. Shaking hands will need to be stopped. Hopefully, more companies will offer for their employees to be able to work at home. School administrators will have to use proactive judgement (it's better to be safe than sorry). If this does escalate, I do not want to have to fly anywhere on public airlines.

From some of the information/opinions I have read (not necessarily here) , I begin to wonder if certain people actually want some type of major disaster to happen. I don't understand this. Does anyone else sense this?

If people want excitement, they should go to Six Flags - or drive in Atlanta.

odysseus
May 4, 2006, 06:01 PM
No one should want this. Major pandemics are hard on the healthy as well as the sick. The impact will be devasting socially, govermentally, and economically.

I can't remember the source, but there was a great overview some organization did which showed how quickly (mainly due to International air travel) a highly contagious (airborn) virus could spread across the world. We all can tell what that is like. One of the reasons why some very deadly ones have not spread is because they are exactly that: deadly. Someone showing symptoms quickly will not get far. However with this one, I am not sure...

jerkyman45
May 4, 2006, 07:04 PM
I'm not worried about bird flu. It's a sensationalized story to get more viewers to watch. My philosophy is when there's nothing to worry about, don't worry. Currently I'm more concerned about antigunners taking away our right to own firearms.

k_semler
May 4, 2006, 08:05 PM
http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/

http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu/plan/pdf/HHSPandemicInfluenzaPlan.pdf

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/

Enjoy.


--Issuing official, legally binding quarantine orders
---Posting a guard outside the home
----Using electronic forms of monitoring
-----Using guarded facilities
-------Protocols for using checkpoints to restrict travel between neighborhoods.

If you enjoyed reading about "Ok, what's up with 'bird flu'?" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!