[Rusher]

This should make things interesting............

http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20051026/ts_csm/oalliance_1


MOSCOW - Russia and China could take a step closer to forming a Eurasian military confederacy to rival NATO at a Moscow meeting of the six-member Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Wednesday, experts say.

The group, which started in 2001 with limited goals of promoting cooperation in former Soviet Central Asia, has evolved rapidly toward a regional security bloc and could soon induct new members such as India, Pakistan, and Iran.

One initiative that core members Russia and China agree on, experts say, is to squeeze US influence - which peaked after 9/11 - out of the SCO's neighborhood. "Four years ago, when the SCO was formed, official Washington pooh-poohed it and declared it was no cause for concern," says Ariel Cohen, senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation in Washington. "Now they're proven wrong."

Wednesday's meeting is expected to review security cooperation, including a spate of upcoming joint military exercises between SCO members' armed forces. It may also sign off on a new "Contact Group" for Afghanistan. That would help Russia and China - both concerned about increased opium flows and the rise of Islamism - develop direct relations between SCO and the Afghan government. While this will be highly controversial given the presence of NATO troops and Afghans' bitter memories of fighting Russian occupation throughout the 1980s, the Russians have an "in" because they still have longstanding allies in the country.

In attendance Wednesday will be prime ministers of member states Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as top officials from several recently added "observer" states, including Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh, Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, and Iranian Vice President Parviz Davudi.

The SCO's swift rise has been fueled by deteriorating security conditions in ex-Soviet Central Asia, as well as a hunger in Moscow and Beijing for a vehicle that could counter US influence in the region.

"Moscow is seeking options to demonstrate - to Washington in the first place - that Russia is still an important player in this area," says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs, a partner of the US bimonthly journal Foreign Affairs. "China's ambitions are growing fast, and it also wants to turn the SCO into something bigger and more effective."

Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with its emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in Kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all social and geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."

An SCO summit last June demanded that the US set a timetable to remove the bases it put in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan with Moscow's acquiescence in the wake of 9/11. In July, Uzbek leader Islam Karimov ordered the US base at Karshi-Khanabad to evacuate by year's end.

But two recent visits to Kyrgyzstan by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appear to have secured the US lease on that country's Manas airbase indefinitely - albeit with a sharp rent increase.

"There is nothing to cheer about," says Mr. Cohen. "Washington has signaled to the Russians that we won't be seeking any new bases in Central Asia. Basically, we are doing nothing to counter the moves against us."

In joint maneuvers last August, Russian strategic bombers, submarines, and paratroopers staged a mock invasion of a "destabilized" far eastern region with Chinese troops. This month, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov proposed holding the first Indian-Chinese-Russian war games under SCO sponsorship. "In principle, this is possible," he said. "The SCO was formed as an organization to deal with security issues."

Should states like India and Iran join, the SCO's sway could spread into South Asia and the Middle East. "India sees observer status [in the SCO] as a steppingstone to full membership," says a Moscow-based Indian diplomat who asked not to be named. But he added that India, which has recently improved its relations with the US, does not want to send an anti-US message. "We would hope the Americans would understand our desire to be inside the SCO, rather than outside," he says.

While the SCO's potential looks vast on paper, experts say internal rivalries would preclude it from evolving into a NATO-like security bloc. "What kind of allies could Russia and China be?" says Akady Dubnov, an expert with the Vremya Novostei newspaper. "The main question for them in Central Asia is who will gain the upper hand."

Still, the idea of a unified eastern bloc has strong appeal for some in Moscow. "It's very important that regional powers are showing the will to resolve Eurasian problems without the intrusion of the US," says Alexander Dugin, chair of the International Eurasian Movement, whose members include leading Russian businessmen and politicians. "Step by step we're building a world order not based on the unipolar hegemony of the US."

Says Cohen: "Eventually they'll wake up to this challenge in Washington. But will it be too late?"

[antarti]

Russian leaders blame the Bush administration, with its emphasis on democracy-building, for recent unrest, including revolution in Kyrgyzstan and a putative Islamist revolt in Uzbekistan. "Washington wants to expand democracy, which it sees as a panacea for all social and geopolitical evils," says Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policies, which advises the Kremlin. "But it is clear to us that any rapid democratization of these countries (in Central Asia) will lead to chaos."

Most people don't get that what happened in Russia was simply the Commies divvying up all the industrial, mineral, and financial wealth in the Soviet Union, and then allowing elections. That might be an oversimplification, but not by much.

A "De-Commification" would do them all a world of good, and do the world some good too.

[Henry Bowman]

Many American America-haters will support this. They think the world needs another superpower to "balance" America. They will also oppose an arms race, prefering that America not be a "superpower" at all. :banghead:

[Standing Wolf]

One wonders how Russia plans to pay for all this. American foreign aid, perhaps?

[Jeeper]

Russia has some of the largest untapped oil reserves ever discovered. Some estimates say that they are larger than the entire middle east.

[R.H. Lee]

The quickest, best, most effective way to de-escalate the threat from these two is to westernize them through trade and economics. As the standard of living increases in both these countries, they will become dependent, peaceful consumer nations.

[Bartholomew Roberts]

Russia will get the shaft on that deal. Either they will end up subservient to China or China will outright take the resources in Russia's Far East that Russia cannot defend or exploit to the full potential.

[Faithless]

Russia's going to end up as an asian colony.

Still can't believe people are still going 'OMG TEH RUSSIAN BEAR'S COMING RIGHT AT US!'

[walking arsenal]

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=161806&highlight=wolf

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=162197


I wonder if this, explains those.

[WT]

Americans are financing the growth of Russia and China.

Conoco-Phillips is advertising on TV that it is investing billions of dollars in Russia to develop its oil industry.

Ford and General Motors are investing billions of dollars in China to develop its manufacturing industry.

None of the above are spending much in the USA.

Other reports indicate that the US will become a 2nd rate economy around 2020. Thirty years later in 2050 the US will become a 3rd rate economy.

100 years from now historians will look back and declare that Bill Clinton and George Bush 'killed' the USA.

[Joejojoba111]

Hey, hey, these are our allies. The poor Russians, the victims of extremeists. They need our sympathy, and money. C'mon, you are looking at them critically? That won't do!

Quick facts - Russia is not a democracy. The elections are fixed, clearly fixed. Putin was elected in the last 30 minutes before the polls closed. In that time all the people who had not voted came out and voted for Putin. Buildings with 12 floors had people listed as living on the 14th floor, voting Putin. Dead grandparents and newborn children - voted Putin. It's been recorded, it's been reported, it's the way things are.

- Russia is not a free market. Russia is THE Barbi Dreamhouse of robber-barons. Each person in Russia got certificates, like stock, that they could invest in Russias capital. But, there were already millionaires in Russia before 1989. They used the money and power they already had, and they forced people to give up their stocks. Forced. They close the roads (just don't clear the snow) to a town, and the only stores that sell food and clothing refuse to take money (remember how the Ruble was plummeting), instead they only take stock. A couple years ago over 60% of Russia was owned, outright, by about 2 dozen men.

Russia has been returned to a de-facto state of Feudalism. Yeltsin said, "Millions of shareholders, not a handful of millionaires." And he couldn't have been more wrong.

[Scottmkiv]

Sounds like Chicago....

[mr.trooper]

I doubt that China will simply waltz into Russia and take their oil :rolleyes:

Russia has ALWASE been a rather stubron nation. They will fight china to the last man;They will loose, but they will fight to the last man. not to mention that they will have us breathing down their backs for taking our...er...i mean Russias, oil. :D

[Borachon]

The quickest, best, most effective way to de-escalate the threat from these two is to westernize them through trade and economics.

I'm not so sure that democratization/Westernization automatically leads to Peace.

The idea is that trade and economics will cause an interdependency between all trading societies so that they can't attack one another without hurting themselves economically. Sounds good in theory, but you always end up with one country lacking a vital natural resource that the other has. Sometimes this just literally means land (Hitler's "living space") in order to grow and support the population with new resources, more farming land...whatever.

We've seen Western nations engage in war a time or two in the last few years. Just since 1980 the US has attacked Grenada, Panama, Iraq...the first time, and Iraq again. This doesn't count the "police actions" against Haiti, Yugoslavia, Libya, Somalia, and lots of other smaller conflicts (El Salvador, Nicaraqua, etc).

Even Britian and Argentina fought a small war. Both of them being Allies of the United States....and at least nominally democracies (some question on Argentina's part).

As long as Russia and China are fearful of the US (ie...for the foreseeable future), they will take steps to keep our influence to a minimum.

[Lupinus]

All I know is I hope we don't wait till we are under attack to respond. The crosshairs are on us the only thing missing is the gun and that is soon to come. We need to begin out build up NOW. We did it durring the cold war and we need to get back to that before it is to late and we are caught with our pants down.

We need to pump out the advanced planes that are jsut about ready to go into service. We need to get tanks and armor produced. We need to get our military ready for a war that is very likly coming. And we need to start spending are money at home and not so it is going to chinas pocket. They are preparing for a war with america using american dollars.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

The quickest, best, most effective way to de-escalate the threat from these two is to westernize them through trade and economics. As the standard of living increases in both these countries, they will become dependent, peaceful consumer nations.Ya mean westernizing a hostile nation can make it become peaceful? Wow, we oughta try that in Iraq... :neener:

[Don't Tread On Me]

Antarti hit the nail on the head. What he says is just the tip of the iceberg.


Read "Russia as it is: Transformation of a lose/lose society" by Matthew Maly. THE book on understanding Russia. You won't regret it.


PS, cover is incredible...artwork of a Lenin statue holding a BigMac.

[mfree]

"100 years from now historians will look back and declare that Bill Clinton and George Bush 'killed' the USA."

Nah, they'll just reflect that we moved back to where we were in the 1920's in the grand scheme of things. Reached the peak of the mountain after the stimulation that WWII was, if you will.

[CAS700850]

Here's how a former soldier from the Cold War looks at things.

Russia has large amounts of natural resources without the economic means of exploiting/utilizing the resources. China, on the other hand, has tremendous economic resources, as well as a labor force without comparison, but lacks the rsources needed to supply industrialization. China wants the resources, but the question is how best to get them from the Russians.

They could try fighting, but may recall WWII and the suffering the Rusians endured to overcome the Nazi military. And, any large scale war would result in the depletion of the Chinese labor force, which is counter-productive. Add that the Russians still maintain a nuclear arsenal, and you have a coslty war from the Chinese perspective.

So, how about a treaty? Throw cash at the Russians (which they really need) and get the resources handed to you. Which, in turn, allows you to further inductrialize your nation, and make even more money.

So, how is this a threat to America? Depends on how China inductrializes. If they start building tanks and planes, then it might be a build-up for war with NATO. Bad news. Or, if they start building televisions, computers, telephones, cars, etc., then they are going to take even more of our money, undersell American industry, and basicaly take all of the American inductry under by offering products at reduced cost. Kind of like the way Wal Mart puts others out of business.

So, what do we do about it?

[Moto]

I doubt that the last thing China and Russia would want is a war of any kind with the US. China likes to act all tough and feel important in the world. If they start too much trouble or damage relations with the US, they risk completely destroying thier economy. China's economy is mostly fueled by exporting goods to the US, if that trade route should ever stop due to war, or sanctions, there is no other market out there as large as the lucrative one in America and it would have serious effects on China's ability to maintain the superpower status. Which is probably the only reason why they haven't just openly invaded Tiawan yet.

Russia does have some legitimate security concearns. There is an American presence right out side of thier borders, and I am sure it makes them feel very uneasy. Especially since thier military is very voulnerable at this current time and it doesn't look like that will change anytime soon. I think that thier main concearn is that the US will be messing around in central asia and be "stirring up a wasp nest " By getting involved in civil wars or revolutions. Russia can't seem to get Chechnya under control or even monitor its borders well enough to keep the muslim extremists out. If a civil war breaks out in another region right outside of thier border, it is only inviting trouble which I don't think Russia is prepared to deal with.

It is too bad that the U.S couldn't forge a better relationship with Russia, it would be a mutual benefit. Russia needs security, manufactured goods, and aid in developing its industries. The U.S needs to stop importing EVERYTHING from China, Russia could potentially be a market for American goods to be exported, which would help with our ridiculous trade deficit. The U.S would also benefit by helping to develop Russia's untapped natural resouces such as oil. It would provide an alternative to buying oil from the OPEC cronies. The U.S would also benefit by having a strong military ally next to China, in the event that China becomes overly ambitious and starts a war, or seeks to increase its borders in the future.

[Selfdfenz]

CAS

+1 on your POV

I have no idea what to do about it other than import a bunch more international students, send them to US universities and try to out-tech the both of them.

[I'm not sure why US undergrads are undesirable to grad school admission committees but, oh well.....]

S-

[TexasRifleman]

Russia will get the shaft on that deal. Either they will end up subservient to China or China will outright take the resources in Russia's Far East that Russia cannot defend or exploit to the full potential.


There is oil there right? No one would do something dishonest for access to oil would they?

[Carl N. Brown]

....a Eurasian military confederacy....
So Russia and China become Eurasia?
With USA and UK (Airport One) forming Oceania, who does
that leave to form Eastasia? Mmmm, India, Japan, Taiwan
and Australia? Things are shaping up doubleplusungood.

[TheEgg]

China will dominate this -- Russia better think twice, unless they just want to be lap dog for Beijing.

[mainmech48]

Anybody who believes that the Chinese don't plan on becoming The Dominant Power in weltpolitik before the middle of the present century is in for a very rude awakening.

"Start building tanks, planes, etc" ? They already ARE, and at a rapidly increasing pace. Ditto submarines, SAMs, ICBMs, ELINT technology and the whole Nine Yards.

The whole G--D----- world seems to be lining up to hand them the means to leapfrog generations of R&D by educating their engineers, selling them the latest word in technology and building them the facilities to reproduce it.

Greedy, short-sighted, and stupid don't even begin to describe it all.

A Chinese-dominated hegemony of Central Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and the Middle East would be bad enough. Add in the Pacific Rim (Chinese already control the vast majority of commerce there) and Russia, and it's "Hello, Brave New World Order!"

Look for Taiwan to be reabsorbed very soon. We lack both the political will to resist the move and the available military capability to back it up. Almost ten years of pissing away our military resources faster than we can (or will) replace them have left us undermanned, underarmed, and terribly overextended.

Much of our most-used frontline hardware is being literally worn-out. A lot of it is reaching the end of its service life (like the A-10) with no viable replacement on the drawing board, much less in production.

Ten years of running our regular military personnel into the ground by trying to do more work with many fewer hands has led to the loss of far too many of the trained specialists, both officers and enlisted, that make up the core of a functional TO. We're just burning them out.

If anything, it's worse in the Guard and Reserve outfits. Check the figures, they're getting scary.

The Chinese will expand. Population pressure will demand it, and their age-old belief that they are (always have been and ever will be) the Middle Kingdom, rightfully destined to be the Center of the World will rationalize it.

Putin, India, et al are going to do whatever they see as being to their own advantage in the near term. If that also seems to offer the opportunity to get some payback for some simmering personal grudges for slights real and imagined, so much the better.

That they're digging their own graves in the process doesn't concern me. That the rest of us are going to end up in there with them does.

[KriegHund]

Been a long time in coming.

Russia has never been a country to stand idly by shile other nations grow.

Say what you will, but the russians dont quit. The chinese control 1/4 of the worlds population, not to mention their industrial capacity...

The future shall be an interesting one.

[Lupinus]

anyone who doesn't see China as a threat is living in lala land and war with them will quite likly be on the horizon at the present track of things. Build ups on out side need to be NOW not after it is to late.

[mrrev]

So how do all of you like the keyboards you're using to post your replies, the ones that are Made in China, is it too late?

The economic balance is was really concerns me.
I just don't see them going all postal on us like a lot of people say.
But if I were in the arms production business, I would sure be feeding you all this stuff about them shooting off nukes blindly, like that N.Korean guy. I'm convince he's a loon, at least that's what they tell me to think.

If we're going down, someone elses growing economy in combination with our weakening one is what's going to do it. Don't buy Chinese Made keyboards!!! just my 2 cents

Question, where can I buy a non-chinese keyboard???

[Lupinus]

Question, where can I buy a non-chinese keyboard???
Probably in China

[Hawkmoon]

Russia will get the shaft on that deal. Either they will end up subservient to China or China will outright take the resources in Russia's Far East that Russia cannot defend or exploit to the full potential.
Go to the head of the class.

[KriegHund]

So how do all of you like the keyboards you're using to post your replies, the ones that are Made in China, is it too late?



Sooth.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I see the China/Russia thing more as a response to the European Union.

The whole world seems to think that unions are what makes superpowers. It worked for the US, so it must work everywhere else. That's the reasoning, anyway...

China and Russia would make an interesting partnership. China has the manpower and the strong work ethic. Russia has the resources.

But if they think they're gonna become a superpower just because they're united, well, they're as wrong as the Europeans. The US enjoys the power she does because of her superior wealth. We are the only nation that can afford to maintain stealth aircraft and fleets of aircraft carriers, for instance.

But wealth doesn't come from uniting formerly soverign states. Wealth comes from freedom and capitalism and minimal government.

The Europeans don't understand that. The Russians really don't understand that. The Chinese seem to be catching on pretty quickly, though. Taiwan and Hong Kong are hard lessons to ignore. :(

[R.H. Lee]

But wealth doesn't come from uniting formerly soverign states. Wealth comes from freedom and capitalism and minimal government.
I wouldn't be too smug. It also helps when the rest of the world is forced to use your currency exclusively for global oil trading. Google 'petrodollars' and you'll see that our standard of living is artificially higher than warranted. The Euro is getting stronger every day and when it becomes the 'petroeuro', we'll see how long 'freedom, capitalism and minimal government' can sustain us. Especially as we head toward being the all time high debtor/consumer nation in the world.

[another okie]

My keyboard was made in Malaysia, but I agree with the coming power of China. We should understand, though, that China has never been an expansionist power in the Western European style and won't be. What they will fight for is unify what they see as "China." That means Hong Kong, which they now have, Taiwan, maybe Mongolia or some Southeast Asian countries with large Chinese populations, like Singapore and Malaysia. And they certainly are already using their power to create influence in places such as Africa and South America.

One post above referred to why we are falling behind in science and asked why Americans aren't desirable to graduate schools. The answer is math skills. Americans are pitiful at math because 1. we're lazy and 2. we don't like anything where there are right and wrong answers and 3. our public school teachers in the elementary are almost without exception bad at math themselves.

[White Horseradish]

So how do all of you like the keyboards you're using to post your replies, the ones that are Made in China, is it too late?

Question, where can I buy a non-chinese keyboard???

Mine wasn't made in China. It's a Northgate Computer Systems keyboard and Northgate used to be right here in Minnesota. Until they went belly up, that is...

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I wouldn't be too smug. It also helps when the rest of the world is forced to use your currency exclusively for global oil trading....I think you have the cause and effect relationship backwards. There is a reason why the dollar is so prevalent around the world. It's the same reason the Franc, Pound, Deutchmark, Yen, Rouble, and Rupee never attained international prominance.

The only threat to our current national superiority lies in rejecting the values that led us here. Sadly, many people today seem awfully anxious to do just that. :(

Oh, and don't worry too much about where your keyboard was manufactured. Ask yourself which companies designed and built the important parts: processor, architecture, software, tec. Let the Chinese have keyboards, we have more important things to work on.



EDIT: Here's a semi useless factoid: There are only three remaining brands of vaccum tubes still in production; Svetlana, Sovtek, and Shuguang. Some of the world has moved on, some of it hasn't...:neener:

[DRZinn]

We've seen Western nations engage in war a time or two in the last few years. Just since 1980 the US has attacked Grenada, Panama, Iraq...the first time, and Iraq again. This doesn't count the "police actions" against Haiti, Yugoslavia, Libya, Somalia, and lots of other smaller conflicts (El Salvador, Nicaraqua, etc).Show me a true democracy among them. The "Democratic Peace" is a fact. There may be a few small exceptions (I'm no expert) but they would only prove the rule.

[AJ Dual]

Anyone care to speculate what the impact of amniocentesis and sex-selective abortions causing a surplus population of un-marryable males in Asia, China particularily, will have?

Me neither. :what:

[mainmech48]

One post above referred to why we are falling behind in science and asked why Americans aren't desirable to graduate schools. The answer is math skills.

Plus 1, although I don't entirely agree with your analysis as to why.

Robert H. Heinlein put it rather succinctly: "If it can't be stated mathematically it's not science, it's opinion."

It's also time for us to re-evaluate the nomenclature of academic titles in order to differentiate between the real scientists and phsyicians and the Playground Supervisors. With colleges and universities awarding doctorates in things like "Ethnic Studies" there needs to be some way for the public to immediately identify the academic tailchasers and button sorters.:barf:

[Ky Larry]

I believe it was Lenin who said something to the effect:"Some day we will hang all the capitalists, and they will sell us the rope.":uhoh:

[Joejojoba111]

So, how is this a threat to America? Depends on how China inductrializes. If they start building tanks and planes, then it might be a build-up for war with NATO.

IMO no-one really even plans, large-scale inter-power conflicts anymore. The purpose of a strong military is back to LouisXIV-style fait accompli. Like Iraq. You go in, take over, install a friendly government. Once you're there it's awfully hard for a foreign power to get you out (attacking forces not completely inferior). You don't need parity, you just need to not be modern enough to be challenging on all fronts, just enough to almost question the success of an attack on you.

So suppose the CIA succeeds in overthrowing Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. China could unilaterally go in, as a unilateral good-will peace-making mission, to pacify the violence, and set up a constitution they like, and that's that.

The League of Nations lost all power when America refused to join. The UN has similarly lost it's power with Iraq being conquered under it's watch, under it's nose. When the international body is gone freedom of action will be re-instated.

edit: Venezuela was just for example and effect, close to home, not realism.

edit2: Military action of great power on great power is the exception, usually they are used on inferior powers, historically as well as the present example.