did a comparison between brady grade and the VCI


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MJRW
March 31, 2003, 03:19 PM
I ordered it by state by VCI (lowest VCI to highest) and put the Brady Grade for the state there. I did it for my own amusement. I found it interesting and just thought I would share. It is zipped in excel format.

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jsalcedo
March 31, 2003, 03:32 PM
Doesn't seem to be much of a pattern.

It does seem that highly populated states with the largest cities have more crime than the sparsely populated states regardless of the brady grade.

Justin
March 31, 2003, 03:39 PM
Interesting. I wonder what that would look like on a graph, with the VCI on the Y axis and the Brady Grade on the X axis? Just from glancing at the numbers, I'm not seeing a direct correlation, but it'd be interesting to see what would happen if you took the average VCI of all the A graded states, B graded states, etc. and then plotted those on a chart...

MJRW
March 31, 2003, 03:50 PM
At a first glance, I couldn't discern a pattern either. Some things of note:

1. Of the 10 lowest VCIs, 8 of them scored D+ or lower with 3 of the 8 F(or F+) grades.

2. Of the 10 highest VCIs, only two of them were in the bottom half of Brady grading.

3. Of the top 10, the only A showed up as the second highest state. And 1 of 5 elusive A- and one of 2 B+.

4. There are only 2 Fs in the 25 states with the highest VCIs.

5. From "F" to "D" there are 21 states totaling 7672 (365.3 average). From "C-" to "A" there are 21 states totaling 9111.6 (433.9 average). 418.9 being the average of all states.

There may be patterns here. Even if there are no patterns, the best case scenario for this grading system is that it absolutely does nothing to reflect the safety of an area and is just completely arbitrary. I'm by no means qualified to do this, I was just doing it for fun and thought I would post it. I'm so out of practice with statistics I can't keep straight mean, median, and mode.

Standing Wolf
March 31, 2003, 05:32 PM
There may be patterns here.

I'm sure there are, and I wish someone would suss out the information, square it up, and chart it intelligibly. I bought a copy of John Lott's More Guns, Less Crime, but couldn't set aside my lifelong mathophobia far enough to make clear sense of it.

roscoe
March 31, 2003, 08:13 PM
I did a quick Pearson's correlation on that data, after converting the grades to numbers (F- = 1, A+ = 15). There was a positive, but not statistically significant correlation between the Brady grade and the rate of violent crime. However, when I gave DC an A+ (it was ungraded), the correlation became statistically significant.

Of course, this does not control for population density. If someone has population density data (or even square mileage figures, I have the population stats) for the metropolitan areas, I could do more, because I downloaded the FBI crime stats for all metropolitan areas.

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