[David]

Breaking News:

"President Bush issues executive order allowing quarantine of SARS, other infectious patients"

:what::uhoh: :scrutiny:

What the heck is going on with this mystery illness?

Could it be bio terrorism?

Is it more serious than the government is letting on?

This stuff is REALLY starting to concern me!

Any opinions...

[VaughnT]

From what I understand, most of it is just hype and overexageration.

Just on the news, there were only 84 deaths from SARS, yet there are over 2000 confirmed cases. If the loss is so little, this really isn't any different than a flu virus that we live with every day. Many areas see far greater death rates from influenza and such.

Basically, I'm not worried. The rate of death and the rate of spread all indicate that we have plenty of time to find the culprit and the cure.

Or, you could panic and spend a gob of money buying all those toys you've always wanted to buy before you die.:D

[Greg L]

:uhoh:

Yeah, this is a REALLY bad time to be rereading Clancy's Executive Orders. :eek:

I think that if it is bioterror the story won't be admitted by the .gov until it is too big to hide. Can't spook the herd.

Greg

[David]

Here is the link to the story about Bush's "quarantine" executive order:

http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercurynews/news/5560747.htm

:eek: :eek: :eek:

[Russ]

The bad part about SARS is that it is a virus and we don't have any treatments for 99.9999% of them. What VaughnT said is correct. The flu virus kills alot of people every year even here in the U.S. Basically the old, and those with bad immune systems.

I sometimes wonder when one of these new viruses pops up if it is going to be the desolating plague that destroys mankind. But, there really is no point in worrying about it, just like earthquakes. They are going to happen whether you like it or not and there's not much you can do about it. I grew up in Southern CA and all my life the "Big One" (earth quake) was supposed to happen anytime. I've been through some big ones but not THE BIG ONE. Best to be prepared as best you can for everything and don't worry.

[treeprof]

W/only a 3-5% mortality rate (mostly folks w/other health problems) and apparently contact-borne, it is unlikely to be bioterror. Bioengineer it to be more virulent and airborne vectored, and it'd be a good future candidate, tho. Re the govt' action, coronaviruses (what SARS is), like infleunza viruses, exchange freely among mammals and birds. Because this virus is pretty unique for a coronavirus, I think one concern is that it could mututate like a flu virus does as it moves among poultry and humans, and become more virulent and more easily spread in the process.


Ultimately, I'm almost positive that we're much more likely to see a natural pandemic, instead of any bioterror organism, kill off large numbers of people in our lifetime.

[Sir Galahad]

The Spanish Influenza killed millions of people. But because World War 1 was going on at the time, you don't see it mentioned too often in the history books. Flus can morph into different strains very easily. I doubt anyone would use flu as a weapon simply because there would not be an antidote for themselves. The purpose is to kill your enemy and survive your own self so you can gloat. Of course, in the case of "Doomsday" cultists, all bets are off.

[Mike Irwin]

Stephen King's "The Stand" is built around the premise of a superflu getting loose from a government lab into the general population and wiping out most of the world's population.

EXCELLENT EXCELLENT book.


That said, though, latest research says this is a mutated form of the corona virus, a very common viri. Mortality is low, but the effects are pretty severe.

My Grandmother lived through the 1918 Spanish Influenza epidemic, and I remember her telling me about it. She was something like 12 when it happened.

Scientists think they have isolated some of the Spanish Influenza's DNA from tissue samples taken from soldiers who died from it, and also from flu victims who died in the polar regions and were buried in permafrost.

[Standing Wolf]

Given that it's from China, I expect Wal Mart will start stocking it by the middle of next week.

[Byron Quick]

OK, guys. Do some homework. Check out what measles did when it first appeared. Smallpox. Bubonic plague. New diseases have appeared throughout history. Many of them MUCH worse than SARS.

Now there is a mystery here. SARS is coming from an area of China that most of the influenza strains first appear. Unfortunately for the conspiracy theorists among us, the same thing has been happening for at least a century. For some reason, the virii in that region jump from animal species to humans easily.

[Jim March]

What happens is, you've got dense rural populations in close proximity to pigs, ducks, chickens, etc.

If I recall right, the pigs can catch both human flus and poultry bugs, and they "mix". Eventually, you get new poultry-derived bugs show up in people.

Granted, this "mixing process" is incredibly rare, but with at least 800,000 people and even more critters in close proximity, the odds start getting pretty bad.

The science of it all is fairly well understood, and is an embarassment to Beijing.

[SteelyDan]

From everything I've read, it has the potential to become a big deal, but not a BIG deal, if you know what I mean.

[Mike Irwin]

I read an interesting article a few years ago that stated that most, if not all, viri, and many bacterial diseases, that affect humans started out in animals, and didn't cross over to the human population until humans began domesticating animals.

There are some diseases, such as tuberculosis, that can leave identifiable marks on the skeleton. No evidence of tuberculosis in humans has been found until well after animals domestication started.

[Jim March]

Back when I had ferrets, I found out that the poor skinnykitties can catch a human flu bug, when dogs and cats can't.

Somehow, finding out that we're somewhat related to weasels wasn't a big shock :D.

Anyways, the poor guys would sneeze and generally feel like crap, but they recovered about as quickly as the two-legged people do.

[Mike Irwin]

Hamsters and Guinea Pigs too, Jim.

[Wildalaska]

Spoke to a freind who came back from HK about 9 days ago, her family is very worried and everyone is wearing masks in the airport, she is trying to figure out a way to get at least her parents here for a while, very sad scenario for people in the heart of it.

WildwatchingforsneezingAlaska

[David]

With the threat of the mystery illness, bio terrorism, chemical weapons, and so on...

I think I might make this my new "everyday" tactical wear:

[CZ-75]

Scientists think they have isolated some of the Spanish Influenza's DNA from tissue samples taken from soldiers who died from it, and also from flu victims who died in the polar regions and were buried in permafrost.

Some folks are using sequence data to synthesize their own viruses from scratch (de Novo), like the Spanish flu. They could likewise create chimeric viruses taking several virulence factors from numerous organisms and viruses and incorporate them into a single entity. Super smallpox may be at hand sooner than we think.

[Tamara]

<100 deaths worldwide.

<5% mortality rate.

Don't y'all have something more likely to be worried about? Like maybe a shark attack, or being struck by lightning? ;)

"We're the media! Fear is our business!"

[Nathaniel Firethorn]

OK, guys. Do some homework. Check out what measles did when it first appeared. Smallpox. Bubonic plague. New diseases have appeared throughout history. Many of them MUCH worse than SARS.Not worse if you're the one who gets it... :scrutiny:

- pdmoderator

[Double Naught Spy]

David, why would you think SARS is some new form of bioterrorism? Do you not have enough to be paranoid about already?

Before you answer, first explain exactly how it is that you think SARS is bioterrorism. What exactly is unique about it or how it is being spread that you feel constitutes bioterrorism? How do you even begin to separate it from any one of a variety of other diseases that crop up every so often through completely natural means and cause problems, such as Ebola?

If SARS is bioterrorism, then there are goal-oriented terrorists behind this outbreak. Part of what makes terrorism work is being able to claim the deadly events and use the fear instilled to gain some sort of behavior modification by the terrorists of the threatened folks that will somehow benefit the terrorists. Just who is claiming responsibility and what sort of capitulation are the terrorists demanding from the Chinese, Americans, etc.?

Could this be bioterrorism? Give me a friggin' break!

[David]

I have no idea, of course, whether this mystery illness is bio terrorism or not.

That is why I asked the question and asked for the opinions of others.

:confused: :confused: :confused:

[VaughnT]

David, I think the best answer to your question is that this is the result of a bunch of people living in close proximity to a ton of animals. Mixed with very poor sanitation and health care.

Bad luck. Not bio-terrorism.

[faustulus]

this really isn't any different than a flu virus that we live with every day

As Sir Galahad pointed out the Influenza pandemic of 1918 killed any where from 20-40 million people worldwide from June 1918-Jan 1919. Read that number again. In just over six months at least 20 million people died. And although it was called the "spanish flu" at the time it actually started in America. The difference in the 1918 pandemic and every outbreak since has not been the infection rate but rather the age groups most affected. The flu strain that took so many lives in 1918 didn't just attack the very old or very young but men and women in the prime of their lives. 25-30 year olds were some of the worst hit. The problem with SARS is no one is telling us what age group is being affected.
No one knows why the 1918 flu attacked people like it did, by spring of 1919 it was gone and nothing like it has been found since.
One women, whose name escapes me went to norway to dig up the bodies of miners who died from the pandemic. I never did find out anymore about her research.

[TexasVet]

They have isolated it and confirmed that SARS is a mutated COMMON COLD virus that got bred in the usual Chinese fashion of continual transfer from human to pig to chicken and back to pig and so on. The base virus (cold) explains the ease of transmission.
Now they are trying to figure out why more young and healthy are dying as oppesed to the old. Maybe a longer life's constant exposure to cold viri is a good thing this time.

[Atticus]

"<100 deaths worldwide.

<5% mortality rate."

And that 4% death rate includes only those who have been hospitalized in serious condition. There is no estimate of the number of milder, unreported cases.

[Sir Galahad]

A Macanudo a day keeps the doctor away.:D

[Mike Irwin]

Faus,

Most people studying the Spanish Influenza believe it to have originated in China, early in 1918, not the United States.

Reports of the influenza were coming into the United States prior to the first cases being reported here around June 1918.

One reason why it may have been called the Spanish Influenza was because Spain was hit UNBELIEVABLY hard by it -- some estimates are that 8 million Spanish died in just a few months.

What is really bizarre about the Spanish Flu was its ability to spread to areas that didn't even have outside contact.

Tribes in the deep Amazon have described large numbers of their ancestors dying from the illness, while even remote villages in arctic regions that didn't have visitors for months were savaged.

What is interesting about the Spanish Flu is that there were two distinct waves...

The first wave gave typical influenza-type symptoms.

The second wave was the true killer, and seems to have appeared in multiple places at virtually the same time.

[faustulus]

Mike,

The flu's first wave was started in America, signs frist began appearing at military instilations in early 1918. (trust me on this I spent a year of my life going through the primary sources i.e. death certificates, insurance claims, newspaper reports, army medical reports) Now it is true that the second wave came from asia. It is thought, that the flu made its way from America to asia and mutated there.
A one of the books I read postulated that the reason the spanish name got stuck with the flu is spain didn't have a stake in the war at the time and no propaganda machine to stop it. The spanish often get the back hand from the rest of europe. When someone speaks french badly they are said to speak "like a spanish cow"
One problem is that much of the deaths that occured happened in asia and russian where it is almost impossible to get numbers or trace the disease. The war of course was one way it was spread. Soldiers carried it not only across europe but around the globe.

[Master Blaster]

My boss at work just mentioned to me that her husband who is a consultant, was picking up a new client at the airport today.

The client is flying in from HONG KONG!!!!!!!!!!

We are going to wrap my boss in a big plastic bag!!!!!!!!!

Just kiding about the bag. :rolleyes: :D

[Mike Irwin]

Faus,

Two reports I've read on the subject, one IIRC from Johns Hopkins' dept. of Epidemiology, indicate that BOTH waves of the flu originated in China.

The subject will never be fully closed, and I know there are those who do say that the flu originated in the United States, others who say it actually originated in the trenches in Europe, or one of the many military camps there.

I'm trying to get to a very good article from a previous issue of Nature Magazine on the subject, but their web site is being incredibly slow today.

[treeprof]

The March-April issue of American Scientist has a good, readable article on the flu virus. Generally available at bookstores w/a good periodical selection, but not online.

[jimpeel]

It's getting harder and harder to argue with the "End Timers" these days.

Look at all that has happened with diseases -- hanta virus, Legionaires Disease, AIDS, SARS, Ebola,etc.

Pestilence is also on the rise in many countries in Europe and Australia.

Famine is prevalent in many African countries and ...

War, war war!

You can almost hear the hoofbeats (http://www.hedstorm.net/HAUNT/SoundEffects/ANIMALS/hoofbeats.mp3) of the Four Horsemen!

[Jim March]

----- Original Message -----
From: "<deleted>"
Sent: Sunday, April 06, 2003 11:00 PM
Subject: Re: SRA - Bug Fears Cause Alert...
>
> Jim,
> Thanks for the parallel thinking - I calc'd it at 2%. Which is still
> veery bad news

You can't calc it based on "infected versus dead" - some of the infected WILL be dead. Somebody (I forget who) ran numbers based on who has gotten over it versus gotten somewhat dead, and got 5% as a ballpark.

> and thats why the CDC/WHO has pushed all the buttons - now my questions...
>
> - This is has to do with its appearance & timing - Suspicious

Coincidence. See below. And it's at exactly the right time of year for a new bug from that area, just like dozens of others previously.

> - Its supposedly a virus that works with others* and

Not sure what you mean by that.

> - has jumped the species barrier....

Yup. Happens all the time. See below.

> - 1st reports of Patient Zero's were PRoC but could it have been Hong
> Kong then PRoC?

No, it came out fo PRoC. Just like a whole ****load of others previously.

> - Are you thinking also its not quite as accidental as they want us to
> believe and

No, it's accidental. Mind you, Red China's stupidity meant it wasn't dealt with early enough, but that's still not deliberate.

> - the SARS impact has been designed as a "Slow Bio-Bomb"...

No, the source of infection and type of bug points to accident.

> - I have a ref in a bioWMD book to "psittacosis" of the chlamydia
family...
> 5-15 incub. from inhalation and symptions incl pneumonia.. I wonder if
> some idiots gene tampered with it.. as per media refs* to "chlamydia
> like" SARS?

Here's how it works:

Pigs (pork type, not law enforcement!) can catch all sorts of diseases, including bugs caught by both humans and poultry (esp. ducks). These bugs are primitive and can "swap parts" around while in the pigs. Not easily, not commonly, but in Southern China you have millions of small farms which have pigs, ducks and people all in close proximity. This sort of combination is found nowhere else - in the Western world, you do have pig farms, and duck/chicken/turkey/whatever farms, but NOT all at once. Millions and millions of piggies, people and poultry all in close quarters and mediocre sanitation and medical facilities, and the area "generates" brand new flu bugs *yearly*.

While this bug is nasty, it's of the same general type as previous. Like many others, it will prove to have "poultry virus bits" in it's mix.

This has been a well-known scientific fact for many years, see also:

---------------
http://www.time.com/time/asia/news/magazine/0,9754,201978,00.html

"Just as dead was any complacency on the Special Autonomous Region's part that it had solved its problems with bird flu. Health authorities worry about a repeat of 1997, when a strain of avian flu virus-H5N1-jumped directly from a bird to a human. Eighteen people were infected; six died. And the outbreak caused worldwide concern among health experts, who feared a possible global pandemic. Now, despite what is described as a first-class surveillance system for its poultry, Hong Kong is suffering its third lethal outbreak of bird flu in nearly five years. Flu experts can't explain why. But a lack of coordinated regulations, record keeping and research between Hong Kong and southern China is one reason for their inability to get to the root of the problem. And vested economic interests are keeping researchers from taking even the first steps toward finding a solution.

Southern China has long been recognized as the incubator of flu viruses. Traditional Chinese farming practices-especially the close proximity of birds, pigs and humans-promote the mixing of viruses, which mutate and leap between species. New strains are constantly evolving as viral genes are swapped between host bird species. "The 1997 strain was a reassortment from three viruses from goose and, we think, the quail," says Kennedy Shortridge, a University of Hong Kong microbiologist who has studied influenza since 1975."

and:

"The problem is that when China's chickens sneeze, Hong Kong poultry gets the flu. All live poultry intended for human consumption in Hong Kong-some 33.4 million birds in 2001-is imported from the mainland, either ready for sale or as chicks to be raised locally. Of the territory's daily chicken consumption, only 20% is reared on 146 local farms; the rest are transported directly from China. Currently the Chinese government keeps no accurate or accessible official records of animal disease outbreaks. October reports of bird flu in Fujian province and the slaughter of 10,000 ducks and chickens were denied by Chinese officials. In addition, mainland farming and health regulations are lax, and where they do exist, enforcement is minimal. If H5N1 is detected in carcasses or feces when stock reaches Hong Kong, the chickens are sent back and too often merely repackaged. Says Hong Kong legislator Wong Yung-kan: "Everyone knows chickens that fail live-import quarantine become frozen imports.""
---------------
http://www.spcnetwork.com/mii/1998/980135.htm
---------------
From 1997, on a bug that ended up killing 18:
http://www.asiaweek.com/asiaweek/97/1219/feat1.html

"Parts of southern China are considered potential flashpoints for an outbreak of new strains of influenza. This is because avian flu viruses are found naturally in the guts of fowl. And ducks are raised in great numbers in the region. When they deposit their droppings, the virus is released into the environment. This would usually be no cause for concern. But add pigs to the equation, and the situation changes. On China's crowded farms, pigs live and feed in close proximity to ducks. They are also so integral to life in rural areas that they are often housed next door to the family that owns them. (The Chinese character for home is an ideogram of a roof, with the character for pig beneath it.)

To virologists, pigs are "reassortment vessels." They snuffle up the virus, which is then combined with natural pig viruses or with a human virus the pig is capable of carrying. This way, a new virus can take shape in the pig's body. All the pig has to do is sneeze on its owner, and a new strain of flu could be released.

Some scientists believe all three flu epidemics this century may have started on a farm in China. But what is almost certainly different this time is that the A(H5N1) virus jumped from a bird directly to humans, missing out the pig link. This raises the question of whether or not the virus can attack anyone, or just people with the right immunological make-up to receive it."
---------------
Do a google search on the terms:

china flu viruses poultry pigs

If it's not clear yet, this is a real embarassment for Red China's gov't. And this whole thing where they tried to cover up the early stages is NOTHING new <grrrr>.

[faustulus]

Mike,
You are right, we will never know for sure, I think I have read the John Hopkins piece you mentioned, if it is the same one it was written in 1920s and considered the second wave a new disease. And the arguement can be that it was. If you have the inclination check out a book by Alfred Crosby, called America's Forgotten Pandemic, It is one of the few books on the subject and is really the only one worth its salt.
Also if you find that article drop me a line, I would like to see it.

[riverdog]

Recent chatter speculates that this may be a man-made biological that got loose in China.
-----------------------------------------------------------
More Scientists Say
SARS Is A BioWeapon
News24.com - South Africa
4-12-3

Moscow - The deadly pneumonia that has killed more than 100 people around the world may be a man-made biological weapon, Russian experts said on Friday.
Nikolai Filatov, head of Moscow's epidemiological services, told the Gazeta daily that he thought the pneumonia was man-made because "there is no vaccine for this virus, its make-up is unclear, it has not been very widespread and the population is not immune to it."
Yet he had some reservations, since the virus has a low mortality rate - so far killing 4% of those infected -, and because it is relatively difficult to pass on - through direct contact or inhalation.
The virus, according to academy of medecine member Sergei Kolesnikov, is a cocktail of mumps and measles, whose mix could never appear in nature.
"We can only get that in a laboratory," he told a conference in the Siberian city of Irkutsk, quoted by RIA Novosti news agency.
It may have spread because of an "accidental leak" from a lab, he added.
More than 100 people have died and some 3 000 others have been infected by Severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which is believed to have originated in China's southern Guangdong province.
http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_1346560,00.html

[Tag]

Plastic sheeting and duct tape? :uhoh:

I just finished Tom Clancys Rainbow Six, good book, and then the next week SARS is on the loose... :scrutiny:

When will true Bio-Terrorism rear its horrific head?

[Mike Irwin]

"It's getting harder and harder to argue with the "End Timers" these days.

Look at all that has happened with diseases -- hanta virus, Legionaires Disease, AIDS, SARS, Ebola,etc.

Pestilence is also on the rise in many countries in Europe and Australia.

Famine is prevalent in many African countries and ...

War, war war!

You can almost hear the hoofbeats of the Four Horsemen!"


Funny thing about it is that it would have been just as difficult to argue with the end-of-timers 800 years ago when the Bubonic Plague first struck.

Or when syphillis was doing its dirty deeds.

Or when war was raging constantly across Europe.

People have been screaming about the end of time for well over 1,000 years, pointing to this war, that famine, or those diseases as proof that man's reign on earth is over.

In the last 100 years the average life span of the human has roughly doubled, and in industrialized areas more than doubled in some nations.

Why? Better nutrition, better medical care, better sanitation...

And one reason in particular -- Antibiotics.

If one of the end of timers went back in time to talk to the end of timers 1,000 years ago?

They'd be laughed at.

[OF]

The end of the world is THIS WEEKEND! (time passes) ...I mean THIS WEEKEND! ....oh wait, here it comes, oh yeah end of the world THIS WEEK!!

- Gabe

[tyme]

They don't even know whether the coronavirus that's been sequenced is the true cause of SARS.

http://www.genomeweb.com/articles/view-article.asp?Article=2003414213624

[riverdog]

They don't even know whether the coronavirus that's been sequenced is the true cause of SARS. Nope, It's confirmed ... Scientists Confirm Virus As Cause of SARS (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&ncid=514&e=7&cid=514&u=/ap/20030416/ap_on_he_me/sars_virus_cause)