It is in Russian, but works out to the idea that many of the terrorist actions, including 9/11 and Beslan, are field tests of tactics. These acts didn't serve any positive PR purposes for the groups which were supposed to benefit from them, so the direct participants were probably dupes or contractors of trainers interested in refining the quality of their product (direct action for hire on non-governmental basis). Thoughts on the plausibility of that theory?
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January 12, 2006, 01:56 PM
I could see that direct participants of some terrorist actions might be misled about what would happen, but the people behind it are still the same.
(BTW, if you look at that page and scroll down quickly, it looks like "The Matrix") ;)
January 12, 2006, 02:02 PM
S. b. pereslegin
Analytical epilogue to the tragedy in Beslane
In to distant 1996 I wrote the article "geopolitical position of Europe"1 , in which it predicted "offensive guerrilla warfare". This war, directed against the citizen and which is led by volunteer- condemned men, was considered as the form of the strategic answer of the traditional cultures of the "south" to the expansion of Euro-Atlantic civilization. The maximum version of new type war it was "saturating terrorist attack", in course of which the life-supporting infrastructures of enemy undergo total disorganization.
Article was perceived as sequential analytical "uzhastik" of the type of "asteroid danger", "global warming" or the "epidemic of AIDS". Hardly somewhere in the world, besides Israel, terrorism they received in earnest until 11 September, 2001.
In actuality, to it and now they do not relate sufficiently seriously.
After any scale terrorist act follow the groanings in the press, the depiction of the committed errors and required "practical conclusions". Public opinion requires the severe punishment of the guilties, by which are understood not only and not so much the terrorists and their straight accomplices, as colleagues of state law-enforcement services. "yes as they could allow?"
Give let us agree: terrorism — these are the form of war, and besides its very effective form. Far from each impact of enemy can be repulsed without the special losses. There are defeats, caused by blunders of one of the sides (sometimes such errors they border on the treachery). But much more frequent to the defeat leads thin and the inevident "game" of the enemy, who knew how to accumulate forces, to find weak place in the defense, to deliver surprise blow, to take initiative. Perefraziruya the maritime commercial law: "defeat as a result of the insurmountable force of enemy and inevitable in war chances".
It is possible to protect from any conceivable terrorists of power plant, bridges, military posts and the most important industrial objects, but even this requires introduction in the country of "emergency" and implies mobilization. But even under the conditions for quite total mobilization not one country cannot "cover" schools, kindergartens, hospitals, cinemas and apartment houses. To this simply will not be sufficient forces.
Before inflicting of an impact the fighter is differed in no way from usual citizen. Even under the conditions of the Hitler occupational regime, when the order in the rear of Wehrmacht ensured guarding divisions, SS, Gestapo, local national- socialist formation and directive "about the special jurisdiction in the region" Barbarossa "", Soviet guerilla detachments and saboteur parties acted completely freely2. All the more, one ought not to hope that today's Democratic Russia Alliance or liberal Europe will be succeeded in creating in itself such regime of safety, which will make it possible to intercept terrorists along the route to the object- purpose.
It seems that it is possible to get rid of the terror within the framework of the policy of "pacification". Alas, the collision of civilizations already occurred: it is caused, in particular, by the development of the globalizatsionnykh processes, which are only design and to three fourths objective to fourth. Under the emergent conditions mutual "presentation" by the contiguous cultures of its "maximum ontologies" is unavoidable. the "war of identities", once after beginning, will continue.
- 2 -
From a theoretical point of view the traditional Islamic culture does not have not chance in the fight against the pozdneindustrial'noy civilization of the West. Finally, all this we already passed: Indian Sepoys, Chinese "boxers", Sudan makhdisty, — confessed the same strategy, that present vakkhabity or madzhakhedy. But for dealing with them for Europeans it did not be necessary even plainly to strain forces.
However, what did change?
First, of course sharply increased connectedness and mixing of peace. This sharply increased the mobility of terrorists and, therefore, a quantity of potential objects of seizure or destruction. In the second place, the fear of the West before the human losses, especially, among the citizen, immeasurably grew. Contemporary European lost transtsedental'nuyu component of his life; therefore he began to greatly fear death. This weakness, of course, will be exploited again and again. Thirdly, the rate of the technical, social, economic development of the West toward the end OF THE XX century sharply was reduced, and the fundamental break between "civilization" and "barbarism" was reduced to the minimum.
Finally, in the fourth, and on what base we did solve, that the collision of European and Islamic identity is contained by entire content of modern terrorist war?
- 3 -
The analysis of the events on 11 September, 2001, in THE USA led to the model "of Atm(tech)- terror": the interacting groups of suicide terrorists and well prepared analysts. Analysts pose problems, calculate logistics, ensure the information tracking of operation, coordinate the actions of terrorists in the real time. to Fighter- condemned men there remains only to carry out the broken into the simplest steps algorithm and not to forget in time to put an end to itself (however, for sure there exists the procedure of "cleaning", yes even not so much they they know). Under the contemporary conditions can exist still the "educational groups", which prepare suicide terrorists and supply them for the world market. This diagram is more profitable and — from the point of view of analysts — more safe.
Today T- groups are recruited from the Chechens, the Afghans, the Iraqis, the Tadzhiks and other representatives of the extreme geopolitical "south", rejected by globalization and bombings almost during the archaic phase. By the preparation of these groups and by their delivery for the market is occupied "political Islam", predominantly with the Saudi "registration", i.e., furthermore the "south", but no longer extreme. But here the activity of analytical groups bears all signs of the refined European military thinking.
We analyze some terrorist acts of "new type", perfected in the territory of the Russian Federation.
1. Budenovsk - Kizlyar. By organizer and the executor of report was Sh.Basayev (i.e., not there was separation into the analytical and terrorist groups). Fighters not were condemned men. The active dialogues conducted between the terrorists and the authorities. The ratio of fighters to hostages is described by the formula: "nothing personal". Human losses are significant, but public opinion carries them by the calculation of the badly organized actions of federalov. Sums of the action: the completion of the first Chechen war, i.e., strategic result.
2. It is Caspian, on 9 May, 2002, explosion on the time of the parade, dedicated to Day of Victory, led to the loss of forty people. Condemned men were not used, military parade was the purpose of action. Point operation was calculated for the information effect and it reached it.
3. "northeast", on 25 - 27 October. Seizure of the large group of hostages, who belong to the state elite. Condemned men were used. Operation is lustrously planned. The first stage was completed by complete success, subsequently the terrorists lost any control over the development of situation. Negotiations from their side practically did not conduct, any intelligent requirements it was not advanced. Relation to the hostages is severe. With the assault the terrorists are destroyed, a large quantity of victims among the hostages. Public opinion undoubtedly condemns terrorists. Purpose, if it was, was not achieved.
4. 9 May 2004 the murder Of kadyrova in Groznyy. Successful point terrorist act with the explicit nuance of personal vengeance. Condemned men were not used.
5. 24 August 2004 the explosion of two aircraft in air with the loss of passengers and crew. According to one data terrorist act is perfected by smertnitsami, on others — by ground-based services (however, smertnitsy they gave command to the explosion from the cell phones). Requirements it was not advanced, negotiations did not conduct, responsibility for act of terror no one took.
6. Beslan, 1-3 September of 2004 the wonderfully prepared seizure of school from is more than 1.000 hostages, including children. Among the terrorists there are condemned men. Complete absence of negotiations and intelligent requirements. Relation to the hostages is extremely severe, is comparable with the worse crimes of Hitlerites. Result: many hostages perished, terrorist group was destroyed.
Not truth whether, clearly are examined two trends? The first compose the acts of terror with the clearly expressed purpose, limited on the purpose and the victims and entering in after all, but strategy for Chechnya. In this number no or almost there are no acts of terror with the use of condemned men. By the second compose "northeast" and Beslan — the scale, "entertainment", severe and completely senseless from the point sight of the interests of the "official customer" of action. In the same number is entered the most immense terrorist act of "new generation" — the Twin Towers.
Events in Beslane are exponential.
First of all, let us note that not all terrorists, who organized the murder of children in Beslane, were condemned men. A certain of their part intended to leave along the open corridor. But in that case the life of hostages was for the terrorists precious. They could not but understand, that if one child perishes, osetiny — the inhabitants Of beslana will search for them on any edge of the earth. Sooner or later they will find, and criminal greatly will be sorry, that he were struck into the runs, instead of perishing in the skirmish with the federal troops.
For the Chechens this terrorist act indicates the "loss of those" into all west OF THE MEDIA (who perhaps and do not love Russia, but cruelty with respect to the children not tyuey priyemlyut), the expansion of conflict in the North Caucasus with the easily forecasted war of all against all and the eternal hatred of osetinov. Difficult it was to find more inappropriate "purpose", than Beslan! Willy-nilly appears sensation, that this action planned people, very distant from the Caucasus, its traditions and its problems.
Both in New York and in Beslane and on Dubrovke direct executors were completely destroyed. Which occurred in the sky of America, we do not know, and never we learn. But in Beslane and Moscow executors clearly expected, but did not obtain some councils or orders — therefore did not conduct negotiations with the authorities and they did not advance distinct requirements.
The disturbance of interaction of terrorist and analytical group is present. I assumed that during the assault of "northeast" it was possible to interrupt this connection. _ now 4 incline consider, that "analyst" simple complete their part operation, its their its flow not interest.
And then appears the version of New York, Moscow and Beslana, much more terrible, than official.
There is no terrorist в„– 1, eternal enemy OF THE USA. There are no Chechens, who attempt to take vengeance upon Russia for its scolded native land. No (thus far!) even the "war of civilizations". There are the field tests of ates-group, weapon OF THE XXI century. And somewhere are testers of this weapon, analysts with the European thinking.
1. It is published in 1998 in the journal "star" (в„–y2). [back]
2. Fight with the partisans was conducted with the special cruelty; losses among them were great, and it is almost absolute — among the saboteur- underground workers. But Germans so could not "pacify" the occupied territories of Russia, Poland and Yugoslavia and ensure the uninterrupted functioning of railroads, to say nothing of industrial enterprises [back]
[ upward ]
January 12, 2006, 02:45 PM
Oleg, I guess I am concerned about the conclusions one might draw. Someone is sponsoring terrorism, presumably to refine tactics and increase the negative outcomes. One must conclude that this is done in order to execute an even more punishing attack. Well, THAT's great.
January 12, 2006, 04:34 PM
By definition contractors are in it for the money -- therefore they fully expect to live long enough to spend it.
The conclusion is obvious.
January 12, 2006, 09:23 PM
I dunno. IMO, it gives them too much credit for strategic planning. While there may be a few smarter-than-the-average-bear types, I think most are in it for action. Meaning that they need to be doing something to strike at the evil [insert enemy of choice here], and their leaders know they have to produce results semi-regularly to keep their followers and get recruits.
January 12, 2006, 09:40 PM
Hypothetical Questions if I may.
Has anyone [Gov't] ever stirred up trouble to change Political Climate(s)?
Perhaps to pit one or more factions against each other - to eradicate one, the other or both. Maybe to have one "plead" for aid and assitance. Any Gov't ever played factions against each other, I mean how better to learn from a enemy than to stir up a fight and watch what happens?
I mean this would sound like Creative Training. Create a Chaos, and learn from it. Profit from it in various ways.
Just wondering? ;)
January 12, 2006, 09:44 PM
That's the premise behind Orwell's 1984. 3 superpowers work secretly in cohesion to keep the idiot masses happily miserable and in check.
January 12, 2006, 09:44 PM
(BTW, if you look at that page and scroll down quickly, it looks like "The Matrix")
ok, That got me dizzy. :p
January 12, 2006, 10:27 PM
The point of terrorism is not to destroy, but to... well... ahem... terrorize.
My respects to the families of the victims, but really, the big money behind the jihadists are just messing with our heads and the heads of their peons. Destroying everything serves them no purpose, because when there is nothing and nobody left, their money would be worthless and their power non-existent.
January 13, 2006, 06:11 AM
Right on the money.
Controlled conflicts - for controlled change.
For the greater part of my working career, it was my job to help train terrorists. Of course, from OUR point of view, Special Forces soldiers are freedom fighters and liberators, not terrorists. But I'd be willing to bet that Saddam thinks of them differently...
OF COURSE governments seek to expand their influence by any means possible, and the cheaper in all terms this can be done, the better. Guerrilla warfare is a 'force multiplier' and every government with any degree of sophistication at all has plans to use it as one more tool to further its aims.
MOTIVES for participating in guerrilla warfare (or terrorism, however you define it) are as varied as the people participating. Criminals, crusaders and crazies is the 30-year-old division of basic archetypes we used to use, it still works to a large degree IMHO. People do lots of things for lots of reasons, getting paid for doing things (or having someone else you care about paid for your efforts) is just one more motive.
As to the theory itself- hey, stranger things have happened in the world where mysteries are covered in puzzles and wrapped in enigmas. The world is a different place these days, moreso than it ever was before. IMO the fourth generation warfare concept does a lot to explain a good deal of what is happening in this particular area, more so than any other theoretical construct I am familiar with. The literature of 4GW begins fairly recently (1989) and the site above offers a good overview. See the seminal article at http://www.d-n-i.net/fcs/4th_gen_war_gazette.htm .
Of course the complete global political macro that makes all this theory possible is a whole 'nother ball game, I am not even going there.
Double Naught Spy
January 13, 2006, 11:47 AM
At least from US definitions, not popular CNN news jargon, terrorism involves the attack or threat of attack at non-military targets for the purpose of effecting changes in social structure, religion, government, etc. If you break the spirit of the people behind a given government, for example, they won't support the government as the government obviously cannot protect them. People bomb abortion clinics to try to create enough fright on behalf of other medical professionals and the government that other professionals will cease performing the acts and ideally government will outlaw the practice.
Terroristic targets do not need to be strategic targets of great importance. What they need to be is highly visible targets. More damage is done to the psyche via news about such events than is done by the actual event.
Looking back at 9/11, the Twin Towers were attacked because they were a symbol of international American commerce. The loss did not actually create that much damage in regard to commerce via the collapse of the buildings. Where the damage was done was by the perceptions surrounding the event that America was weak. If America can be hit in one of the greatest cities in the world, then so can anyone else's buildings. Combined, these perceptions resulted in tremendous market instability around the world. This was the real terroristic damage and it wasn't just to America.
January 13, 2006, 12:40 PM
I didn't see anything in there that struck me as conclusive, or even as being particularly strong.
People tend to attribute deeper layers of organization, intelligence and intentionality to chaotic events than is usually actually present.
January 13, 2006, 05:52 PM
When the WTC collapsed, stocks fell too. Far more than from the physical damage.
I fear that some actions have been tests - the DC snipers, for instance. Imagine the same thing happening in 20 major cities... Or along interstate corridors. Or around major shopping malls.
I don't think they're evaluating tactics so much as they're evaluating reaction.
Yeah, I'm paranoid. Because there _are_ people who are out to get us.
January 13, 2006, 05:55 PM
Leads me to an idea for a good movie.
Al-Queda goes to terrorist-depot, says hey, we need help doing such and such, for 11 million...
January 13, 2006, 11:44 PM
"How much social engineering do 40 million dollars buy me these days?"
Better yet, "frequent terror points".
James T Thomas
January 14, 2006, 01:47 PM
An American theory: That the "field tests" are to determine our response and long term fortitude.
Side line: We had them defeated in Vietnam, but for the enlightened college responses that were televised and viewed in Paris. That gave the enemy encouragement (aid and abetting) to hold out a little longer.
Now, the fiftyeightthousand lives given have been shamelessly for nought!
The Jewish nation says it so well. "Let us never forget!"
January 14, 2006, 07:19 PM
Former KGB Officer Says Russia's FSB Trained, Employed Bin Ladin's Deputy "Al-Qa'ida Deputy Trained With Russia's Secret Service: Report" -- AFP headline
AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE
Sunday, July 17, 2005 T16:21:56Z
Journal Code: 2131 Language: ENGLISH Record Type: FULLTEXT
Document Type: FBIS Transcribed Text
Word Count: 161
WARSAW, Jul 16 (AFP) -- Al-Qa'ida's number two was trained by Russia's secret service and served as a KGB agent before becoming Osama Bin Laden's right-hand man, a former KGB secret agent told Poland's
newspaper on Saturday ( 16 July).
"Ayman al-Zawahiri trained at a Federal Security Service (FSB, former KGB) base in Dagestan in 1998," claimed ex-FSB agent Alexander Litvinenko who fled Russia in 2000.
"He was then transferred to Afghanistan where he became Usama Bin Ladin's deputy", Litvinenko told the newspaper.
"I was working in that section at the time and I can confirm the fact Zawahiri was not the only link between the FSB and Al-Qa'ida", he said.
Last month Al-Jazeerah television aired a new videotape of Egyptian-born Zawahiri in which he called for more "jihad," or holy war, against US forces and Israel.
(Description of Source: Paris AFP in English -- North European Service of independent French press agency Agence France-Presse)
Compiled and distributed by NTIS, US Dept. of Commerce. All rights reserved.
DIALOG Update Date: 20050717; 13:32:28 EST
Descriptors: International Political; Leader; Terrorism; Urgent
Geographic Codes: POL; RUS; AFG
Geographic Names: Poland; Russia; Afghanistan; Europe; Eurasia; Asia; North Europe; South Asia
NewsEdge Document Number: 200507171477.1_450c0019f1d88e6d
Original Source Language: English
Region: Europe; Eurasia; Asia
World News Connection®
Compiled and distributed by NTIS. All rights reserved.
Dialog® File Number 985 Accession Number 210750185
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