To invest in Silver Bullion or Firearms?


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LoadAmmo
January 17, 2006, 03:05 PM
What do you think about investing in silver bullion versus NIB firearms? What has the most potential in 10 years?

Silver is hovering around $9 an ounce right now.
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html

Peak Silver
www.conspiracypenpal.com/columns/peak.htm

The gold-to-silver price ratio also has risen well above the historic mean of 40:1 in recent years, suggesting that either gold will decrease in value or silver will increase. By many traditional measures ("bundle of stocks," "suit of clothes," etc.), gold already is grossly undervalued, due to government rigging of the price via the orchestrated sale and purchase of financial derivatives (again, see my book for a discussion of how gold derivatives temporarily can convert even gold into a fiat currency). In Defensive Racism, I go through a lengthy analysis in explaining how I think gold will spike well above $2,000 per ounce (in terms of today's dollars, not tomorrow's Greenspanbacks), then settle into a trading range three to four times higher than today's price.

Before silver is done, however, not only should/will/must it revert to the historic gold/silver mean ratio, suggesting a commensurate price for silver of $62.50 per ounce once gold becomes fairly priced. However, silver's scarcity should cause it to surpass even gold's price. Even if I am dead wrong about any upcoming increase in the price of gold, today's gold price alone, when divided by 40, suggests a "mean-ratio value" for silver of $11.75, which is a tidy 60% rise over today's actual silver price!

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El Tejon
January 17, 2006, 03:13 PM
Silver, China will be sucking an enormous amount up over the next few years.

benEzra
January 17, 2006, 03:24 PM
http://news.yahoo.com/fc/world/iran

Defiant Iran could withdraw oil in nuclear row
Reuters - 1 hour, 2 minutes ago

LONDON - OPEC power Iran wields a potent weapon -- oil -- which if fired to ward off international pressure over its nuclear programme could blast prices to record levels last seen during the 1979 Iranian Revolution. Emboldened by strong prices and stretched global supplies, Tehran could retaliate by removing all or part of its daily crude sales of 2.4 million barrels from thirsty world markets. As the United States and its European Union allies lose patience with the Islamic Republic, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has kept the world guessing as to whether the world's fourth biggest crude exporter will withhold supplies.

If that happens, the price of precious metals will definitely climb.

Things would have to get REALLY bad for gun prices to climb drastically. I'd say silver would be the better investment.

Of course, the best course of all would be to jump in your time machine and go back to the '90's, when silver was $3/oz...looks like Warren Buffett knew what he was doing, again, when he jumped into silver big-time at that price...

FWIW, I've read that Buffett is now getting out of dollars...I assume he knows what he's doing, and if he is onto something, and the dollar is going to decline, then silver will rise even more against the dollar.

Rem700SD
January 17, 2006, 03:27 PM
The price of NFA weapons keep climbing, you might consider a couple M-16's in your portfolio!.

a454me
January 17, 2006, 03:37 PM
You could always buy an old musclecar , the price of some models are going crazy right now ! And like a gun you can have some fun out of it .

boofus
January 17, 2006, 03:40 PM
M16 and HK sears are worth far more than their weight in diamonds, gold, or plutonium.

Omni04
January 17, 2006, 03:41 PM
silver guns!!!!

but yeah, silver really seems like the way to go.

rms/pa
January 17, 2006, 04:21 PM
guns will get you money in times of no cash on hand.

better than money getting you guns when you NEED them immidiatly.

rms/pa

Thefabulousfink
January 17, 2006, 04:37 PM
How will this affect the price of silver bullets? Will the Federal Government subsidise the cost of silver bullets so that the civilian population can defend itself against werewolves?

Remember in the 2008 election to be sure of your candidate's stance on werewolf defense. :cool:

Father Knows Best
January 17, 2006, 04:47 PM
You don't "invest" in precious metals, you "speculate." Don't fool yourself. Prices of precious metals are highly volatile. They always have been, and they always will be. The same goes for collectibles, including firearms and muscle cars. For every guy who makes a fair amount of money on them, there are dozens more who lose their shirts. The only sure-fire way to make money on either is to be a broker. That way you make your money both coming and going, i.e., you benefit from the volatility because you get a cut of each trade.

JohnBT
January 17, 2006, 05:13 PM
I would rather own something that contributed a little to my yearly income - guns and metals in any real quantity don't do much other than take up too much space or cost me money for storage.

Let's see, $100k of silver at $9 an ounce would fill a space the size of...dern, what's that, almost 700 pounds of silver. Maybe stamp collecting would be better.

John

seansean
January 17, 2006, 05:16 PM
I can't recommend these guys enough...
http://goldmoney.com/

Allocated storage, you can buy gold and silver, very cool. I found out about them a couple of years ago.

Hairback
January 17, 2006, 05:51 PM
This is strictly an "FYI" for investors/speculators.
Should you decide to invest in precious metals, you should be offered the option whether or not to "take delivery" of your metal. This option is designed for businesses that use the material in production and individuals who don't know better.

NEVER take delivery. If you do, you will never be able to sell the product on the open market without having it remelted and reassayed, which will cost you a good bit of money, plus a percent of the value, unless you are willing to discount it drastically to someone who is willing to take the risk that the product is in its original 99.999 fine condition (Gold) and will use it in production, because he can't sell it either. You might get rid of some of it at a coin shop or the like, but not enough to make a difference, and the shop will discount it too.

I used to be both a broker and a "mover of product in the dark between countries" many years ago. Always had to remelt and reassay when I returned to the states for resale. Sometimes I made money, and some times I was just glad to make it back alive.

f4t9r
January 17, 2006, 06:09 PM
I always heard "Go for the Gold"

Drewcat
January 17, 2006, 06:09 PM
Started buying silver about a year ago. I'm a geologist so got intereted in the supply/demand side of the equation. I don't see that you are in much danger of losing money at these prices. Unlike stocks, at least you've got something physical so you know it won't go to zero!

I'd disagree with Hairback on never taking delivery. I think with metals, if the top really blows off and you just have paper silver you've got a very real chance of being left with nothing. A lot more paper silver is being sold by speculators than there actually is available above ground. So if silver prices do a 1980 and people have sold contracts without the actual metal they likely won't have enough money (or it just won't be there period) to buy real silver to fulfull the contractual obligation they sold to you. In other words, you're screwed and they go bankrupt.

I'd recommend physical at as close to spot as you can get (you can buy it all day a .70 over from places like NWT mint with NO shipping charges, .45 over if you buy 100 ounce bars). Considering it was at 7 just a few months ago and paying .70 over (7.70 oz) may have seemed like a lot, but when it's 9 today that looks pretty good. If you are not planning to buy and sell daily and are buying for longer term and not selling until the price REALLY moves you're safe with physical. If you really can't stand having physical get an allocated account with seriel numbers of the bars so you can be fairly sure they actually have the metal they are selling you!

check out these sites for metals info.

www.gloomdoom.com
www.goldseek.com
www.gold-eagle.com
www.silverseek.com
www.thebulliondesk.com

TABING
January 17, 2006, 06:19 PM
I'd stick to my guns, have they ever gone down. After the Iranian revolution 1979, when the world economy was in flux and turmoil, the Hunt brothers cornered the silver market and the price went to 20$, gold $800, NIB Colt series 70s 1911s $180.00, where are they now, you do the math.

Father Knows Best
January 17, 2006, 06:23 PM
I'd disagree with Hairback on never taking delivery. I think with metals, if the top really blows off and you just have paper silver you've got a very real chance of being left with nothing. A lot more paper silver is being sold by speculators than there actually is available above ground.

Good advice. Keep in mind that if you don't take delivery, all you're really buying is a promise from a company. If the company goes belly-up, you lose your investment. You might as well be buying stocks and bonds at that point.

JohnBT
January 17, 2006, 06:27 PM
The Hunt Brothers. I got in and got out well before the crash. Those were the days. And there were a lot of collectible silver coins floating around screaming to be saved from the bullion buyers.

John

Drewcat
January 17, 2006, 06:28 PM
f4t9r:

Last year silver out performed gold something like 18% to 29% respectively!

(not to say I wouldn't keep a little gold around)



It was the HUNT brothers who cornered the silver market in 1980 and the fundamentals look better today than they did then. ie. it could happen again!

By the way, that is a really interesting and gun related story. The Hunt brothers decided to take delivery of huge amounts of silver (which caused the price spike because they wanted physical rather than just paper silver). Anyway, they had a big shooting contest with the local cowboys in Texas and the winners were hired as guards for the silver shipments. Look it up, it's pretty interesting.

palerider1
January 17, 2006, 06:31 PM
i think buying good quality used guns (collectable ones) is better than buying new guns. i like the 1903 springfields, wwI and WwII 45's, 1917 enfields, ect.
anything you can buy used below current market value that increases with time is a good investment. i saw a chart on vintage 1911 45's and since 1980 they have substantially increased. you wont get that out of silver or gold, although it is good to invest in silver and gold too. its the world standard and in the event you ever needed to lets say go to another country in case of some catastrophy gold will always spend.

bogie
January 17, 2006, 06:34 PM
Maybe last year before things started climbing... Right now, I don't know. The gold bugs are riding high right now, but over time, gold and silver are just now gaining... I suspect that if one had invested $1,000 in mutual funds and $1,000 in gold, back in 1985, that you'd have a pretty fair chunka profit on the mutual fund side. And not all the much on the metals side.

Drewcat
January 17, 2006, 06:40 PM
Bogie,

You're definatley right. But that was 20 years ago!! The biggest mistake I think people sometimes make is investing in what worked 20 years ago. Times change and markets are cyclical. Right now comodities are riding high like stocks were in the 1990s and from all indications they have a way to climb yet. Stocks on the other hand haven't done squat (on a broad market basis) in the last couple years.

bogie
January 17, 2006, 06:40 PM
Nelson and Bunker also bought a lot of land... It was truly trippy dealing with those folks before they went down.

Gold is also available in coinage, which is fairly liquid... Sovereigns are probably the most popular.

But I'd go with stocks...

bogie
January 17, 2006, 06:41 PM
Don't buy single stocks - diversify.

Last year my mutual funds did about 9% or so. This year they're around 4% already, but I suspect we're about to see a correction.

palerider1
January 17, 2006, 06:53 PM
i can get alot more enjoyment from looking at classical collectable firearms in display cases than looking at paper stocks and bonds. i plan on investing in firearms,land, and in my business. www.oasisedging.com

Nathanael_Greene
January 17, 2006, 06:56 PM
Tons of silver and gold change hands on Ebay every day, with none of it being assayed.

Father Knows Best
January 17, 2006, 07:00 PM
anything you can buy used below current market value that increases with time is a good investment.

Um, yeah. That's true but not very helpful. How do you buy anything "below current market value"? By definition, you can only buy something at market value, unless you have access to something that nobody else does. Second, how do you know what things have a market value that will "increase with time"? Investing would be a whole lot easier if I could buy stuff for less than it is currently worth and with a crystal ball to tell me what would go up in value.

i saw a chart on vintage 1911 45's and since 1980 they have substantially increased.

"Past performance is not a guaranty of future results." Repeat that over and over. Don't buy what worked in the past. By definition, it has already run up. People who are quoting spectacular value gains to you are generally doing so because they need to unload those things and need you to take them off their hands. They're locking in their gains, and you're left with a highly appreciated asset that will probably never increase in value like that again, and may well decline.

When it comes to firearms, keep demographics in mind. WWII collectibles, including U.S. and German military firearms from the era, saw a huge run-up in value in the 1970s and 1980s. Why do you think that was? Simple. The "baby boom" generation was entering the age (25-45) where large numbers had disposable income, and as the children of WWII vets they had a distinct interest in the era. Thus, lots of children of vets got into collecting WWII stuff during the 1970s and 1980s. That meant big increases in demand. With a limited supply (by definition, as they ain't making any more genuine WWII collectibles), the increased demand drove prices up. Even non-WWII firearms suffered a spillover effect and ran up in value, but it was largely confined to items of particular U.S. historical interest, such as Civil War and Indian Wars/Old West collectibles and other U.S. made firearms of significance.

Prices have been level or even declining in the last 5-10 years, though. Why? Because those same collectors are moving on. They've lost interest, or are worried about retirement funds and selling off their collections, or they are sitting on their collections but just no longer buying (which dries up demand and depresses prices).

The same goes for muscle cars, which someone else suggested. Muscle car prices did indeed skyrocket as the boomers who couldn't afford those cars when they were teenagers or in their 20s suddenly had lots of discretionary income in their 40s and 50s. The peak has passed, though, and muscle car prices at big auctions have actually been falling, lately.

The key to investing in collectibles is to identify what the next big trend will be. When the current crop of twenty-somethings are hitting the stages in their lives where their kids are grown (or nearly there), and they have the time and money to indulge in a hobby, what are they gonna want? Buy that stuff now while it's still cheap.

palerider1
January 17, 2006, 07:19 PM
you can buy anything under market value if you look hard and are conservative about your purchases. car dealers, realestate investors, gun brokers, ect ect do it all the time. im thinking about putting an ad in the paper "we buy used guns" . i have alot of research and work to do before i do this but i have been sitting in the gunshop plenty of times when guys bring in their old guns that they havnt used in years and sell them for next to nothing. i saw a guy come in with 3 rifles that the dealer paid 25 bucks for...(no they wernt stolen) the guy had them around for years and years. the gun dealer spent 25 bucks, a little time soaking and cleaning them up and turn 25 bucks into 500 bucks when he sells the guns. now thats a profit. so yes,,,,,,,,,you can buy guns way way under market value.:)

LoadAmmo
January 17, 2006, 07:27 PM
Thanks everybody who posted with your insights.

I'm probably going to go with $1,000 in silver bullion.

Live Free Or Die
January 17, 2006, 07:43 PM
Thanks everybody who posted with your insights.

I'm probably going to go with $1,000 in silver bullion.

I sure hope for your sake that you're right about the future of silver. Because as of today, 17 January 2006, silver is trading at an 18 year high. If you're playing the "buy low, sell high" game, you've chosen an interesting time to start. ;)

OTOH, $1,000 is a modest sum to risk.

R.H. Lee
January 17, 2006, 07:51 PM
How about silver coins, like Washinton quarters 1932-1964, or silver dollars??
If silver spikes (high enough) again, many of these old coins may be melted down, increasing the collector value of what you've acquired and saved.

PlayTheAces
January 17, 2006, 08:21 PM
Once upon a time I bought and sold coins on a small scale. Bulk silver coinage isn't a bad way to go, and usually trades in bags of $1000 face value. However, circulated coinage isn't like to ever increase in value above melt. What determines value is condition and rarity. The common modern silver coins were minted in vast quantities, and even large scale melting isn't likely to make the surviving populations rare or scarce. The fact they are circulated as well precludes them from being in the condition collectors look for.

As far as taking delivery or not, I subscribe to the following:

Avoid dealer coin storage programs. Even those offered by reputable and well-established firms. Literally millions of dollars in investor funds have been lost when the company closes its doors and coins "on deposit" are nowhere to be found. Take delivery of coins as soon as possible. If the volume of material is large, or you simply don't want to store the coins yourself consider a professional independent storage facility. We recommend DDSC which is used by the CBOT and is referenced on our site under Secure Storage.

Here's a link to the full text of the above advice, from a fairly well respected bullion dealer's web site. Anyone thinking of investing in metals might want to read the full text - just one guy's opinion but he brings up points that I think have some validy.

CNI (http://www.golddealer.com/the_rules.html)

Fred Fuller
January 17, 2006, 08:24 PM
Disclaimer: IANAE. (I am not an economist.)

My background is history. So I hope you can forgive me if my outlook on the subject is... well, not economic. Right now an ounce of silver is worth pretty much what an ounce of silver has ALWAYS been worth. That is, one ounce of silver. Ditto gold.

It is not the value of silver (or gold) that is changing. It is the unit of value in which the value of an ounce of silver is MEASURED that is changing. Silver (or gold) is not going up in price.

The dollar is going down. (That's what fiat currencies always have done. They eventually assume their intrinsic worth, every one that has ever existed previously has done so. What is the intrinsic worth of any fiat currency? ZERO.)

Of course that is absolutely backwards from what was originally intended in this country (who here is surprised at that?). As the framers originally had it, the dollar was to be a unit of measure of a certain weight of gold or silver of a certain purity. See http://www.fame.org/HTM/Vieira_Edwin_What_is_a_Dollar_EV-002.HTM for an essay on the convoluted history of the dollar.

So, where do dollars come from today? How are they created? What is their source of value? Do you know what the US debt is today? ( http://www.skymachines.com/US_National_Debt_Per_Capita_Percent_of_GDP_and_by_President_1976-2004.htm ) What are the limits to the creation of dollars, or of debt? Do you know who Ben Bernanke is and what his outlook on money is?

No, don't buy silver or gold as investments. If you buy them, think of them as insurance...

lpl/nc

SemiAutoMan
January 17, 2006, 08:25 PM
Do both I have a room full of guns and a closet full of silver us/world coins ;) I bought most of my silver when the price was at $6 so made $3 profit on the oz so far.

Linlan
January 17, 2006, 09:06 PM
Been dealing in both a lot of years, last 5 years or so primarlly on the internet.
I've watched gold / silver rise and fall many times. A lot of experts claim precious metals are different now then back during the Hunt bros. days, and that may be true. But there is one thing about guns that I know for certain ... good quality modern or vintage guns have continued to rise every year on a steady pace.
One has to use good judgement and knowledge to see whats out there but if you use your head and keep abreast of what the market is .. its not very hard to get a steady growth in a gun collection of 5-10 % a year. Really depends on as I said buying or investing in good top of the line modern or vintage ( antique ) firearms. That 5-10 % won't set the world on fire but you can enjoy your hobby and make money on it at the same time.
The simplest advice I can give is quit buying 2-3 hundred dollar firearms 4 or 5 times a year and buy 1 $1500.00 investment gun once a year. More is not always better ! ; - )

1911Tuner
January 17, 2006, 09:13 PM
If faced with a decision, I gotta vote guns. As observed, precious metals
fluctuate on a daily basis. 'Tis here, 'tis gone...'Tis nothing. In the event of an economic breakdown or even collapse...which probably must happen, if you follow historic trends...guns can not only be bartered for other necessary goods, they can be put to use. All that silver and gold can do is sit there and bling. You can't eat it and you can't drink it. You can't even use it to start a fire with. Paper currency at least has THAT goin' for it. At such a time...if it does come and is of such a magnitude that money is worthless
for anything EXCEPT starting fires, a good gun will be worth its weight in platinum.

The other part of the equation is ammunition. Without it, the gun is worthless. If we look back on the debacle in New Orleans...pretty much a worst-case scenario...a socio-economic upheaval would leave many at the mercy of the hordes. A gun AND ammo to use would not only be a lifesaver for some few, they could buy you other things that you need. Ammunition, in particular, is easy divisible into unit value. A round for a Coke. Two rounds for a Moon pie and a Coke. A magazine full for a gallon of heating fuel, etc.

Just my 2% of a rapidly dwindling buck...

PlayTheAces
January 17, 2006, 09:13 PM
Lee - I agree entirely with all your points. The value in bullion is simply what it's perceived to represent. In our case, it's value the metal is thought to represent versus the dollar (or equities, or pork bellies, or barrels of oil, or.......).

To get the thread back on a gun related basis, it's interesting to note that collecting coins and/or guns are similar in several points. Both disciplines value originality, rarity, and condition. Restored guns and cleaned coins tend to lose value. Counterfeiting is an issue as well. Coins are most likely counterfeited to a greater degree, but if you want to get a serious Mauser collector wound up, ask them about restamped SS sniper rifles. :D

I like to spread it around - a little gold here, a few guns there. :)

R127
January 17, 2006, 10:56 PM
Inflation right now is probably at about 10% to 15% a year. Silver and gold are a safe haven from inflation, which has been eating away everyone's savings for the past 100 years and will continue to do so. Unless you conistently make more than 10% or 15% a year on your stocks and bonds you are not outperforming silver or gold, but you are at a greater risk to lose it all.

M3 is not going to be published after March, that means continued runaway printing of money, continued inflation. Dollars are scheduled to be dumped as the currency of choice for buying oil around this same time. The Asians are selling off US debt they own. Read the signs...

Anyway, numismatics won't mean anything post SHTF, that counts for guns, cars, coins, anything. Guns are good to have, but I won't be arming hungry, desperate people, only close friends and family, not a trade item till things stabilize again. Same goes for ammo. Precious metals always have been and always will be a stable way to store wealth and standard medium of trade. It's good to keep some on hand. If you're worried about a drop on spot, buy 40% Kennedy halfs as they contain silver but have a face value that give you a garaunteed bottom that is the most advantageous on the market.

cracked butt
January 17, 2006, 11:26 PM
If you want to speculate on precious metals, why not just buy contracts on the Chicago Commodities Exchange? No hassles with certifying gold or silver, no dilema about storing it vs having a broker store it, no highly specialized knowledge about coins is needed. Another bonus is that you get to leverage larger amounts of commodities than you could buy for the money, meaning larger upside on the investment. The downside is that you can lose the entire price of a contract. As someone else said, you don't invest in precious metals (metals don't produce a product or a service or even a dividend, they simply fluctuate in price), you speculate on them, same thing as commodity trading.

Someone mentioned muscle cars- yes these would have been a neat thing to put money into 15 years ago, but with 1969 chevelles and camaros selling for $60,000+ now and uncertainty about gasoline prices, its a prettty poor place to put money now.

garyk/nm
January 17, 2006, 11:37 PM
The standard axiom is buy low, sell high. Where are silver prices right now? Compared to the 3.25- 3.50/oz I paid in '97?
Has silver increased in value? Most definitely yes.
Will silver continue to increase? Those who want you to buy it would have you think so.
Go for the guns. You can buy a crate of Yugo SKSs for around $1800. What will happen to the price of Yugos when the supply dries up? Do the math.

antsi
January 17, 2006, 11:40 PM
Inflation right now is probably at about 10% to 15% a year.

Um, you might want to check your source on that.

According to this inflation calculator,
http://www.westegg.com/inflation/
inflation 2004 to 2005 was 2.7%.
What cost $100 in 2004 would cost $102.70 in 2005.

According to
http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp
the highest annual inflation rate since 2000 was 3.6 percent.

telomerase
January 17, 2006, 11:44 PM
Just buy whatever class of guns will be banned next, and you'll make some money. We should get up a poll; I would expect all .50 BMG rifles to be banned first. Anyone else have an opinion on what will be banned in 2008? (Hmmm, I guess FDR did ban gold coins... guess it could go either way).

telomerase
January 17, 2006, 11:49 PM
the highest annual inflation rate since 2000 was 3.6 percent.

Seems a little hard to believe, looking at the prices of metals, oil, gas, etc.

I think the quantity of money has expanded at a lot more than 3.6 percent. Prices of many items have not risen as much as the quantity of money because we keep getting more efficient at making things. In the late 1800s, this was reflected in falling prices relative to gold.

Today, prices can't fall in terms of dollars because the Republican Congress and Emperor will print money just as fast as they can get away with.. or maybe a tad faster.

TABING
January 18, 2006, 03:57 AM
One thing I found out in the 1979 silver run up; for example, I buy an oz. of silver today for $5.00, tomorrow the quote is $10., I go back to the dealer, the dealer isn't going to give me anything near $10. he gave $5.25.
When there is a hot market the buy-sell spread gets very big to protect the dealer. After commissions, it wasn't worth it.

I learned my lesson, and when prices plummeted, (and they always have), I started buying little bits every month. Over here any jewelry shop sells 5, 10, 20 gram, 1oz. 2oz. etc. pieces of 99.999 pure gold. It is produced and assayed in Swizerland and are in sealed, tamper proof plastic packets. Everyone recognizes them and they are easy to sell or exchange.

I would ALWAYS take delivery. Don't trust no one to hold my stuff, let alone some investment company.

"As through this world I wandered, I've seen lots of funny men, some will rob you with a six-gun, and some with a fountain pen". Woody Guthrie, song: Pretty Boy Floyd.

I like gold better than silver, it's less bulky, you can carry $25.000 in your pocket, you'd need a wheelbarrow to move that much silver. In a SHTF scenario, silver isn't that practical. I know we're talking investments. but it pays to factor in all options.

If you don't have a stockpile now, it's probably a little late to make a killing.

For investments, I'd buy NIB Colt 1911s. Yes, Yes, they may not be the best in some opinions, but they are the "world standard", everyone recognizes them and you could sell them in 24 hours in any of the free states in the country.

LAK
January 18, 2006, 05:16 AM
I think it is important to recognize that precious metals do not climb in value per se. The "price per ounce" is only a representation of the rise or fall of one paper currency value. If silver goes from "$9 per ounce" to "$18 per ounce" it is the dollar that has lost value, not silver that has gained.

Precious metals have unique properties and therefore intrinsic value. As an "investment" they are really simply security against the busts of paper money.

The value of firearms is based on many things; rarity (not always), demand, and condition.

Or popularity - utility. A $125 well-used and beaten but fully serviceable Rem 870 might suddenly be worth double or triple to someone who wants or "needs one now" during civil unrest for example.
----------------------------------------------

http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org

Nematocyst
January 18, 2006, 05:34 AM
About half way through reading this thread, I realized that my interpretation of the original question was different from at least 90% of other responders.

For me, the question of 'value' resides NOT in how much money ($) an 'investment' may bring in the future, but how well the 'investment' can be used as a tool to prolong my life.

For most, 'investment' assumes that money will continue to be worth something 20 years from now.

I happen to be one of those who thinks otherwise.

I'm one of those SHTF/TEOTWAWKI types who thinks that civilization as we've known it for, say, the 20th century will end during my life time.

When - not if, IMO - that happens, I'd MUCH rather have my 870, or my .22LR, or even my 9mm or .38 spl than an equivalent weight in silver, gold or diamonds.

I can't defend myself against intruders with gold or diamonds, let alone kill food with it.

If there are no functional stores from which to buy, what's the point?

Give me 12 ga, 9mm, .38 spl, & .22LR anyday, with a well-stocked ammo locker (yes, indeed) in a mobile transporter unit (10,000 GVWR) over silver anyday.

Nem

R127
January 18, 2006, 08:50 AM
I used to be very skeptical in my thinking regarding precious metals, until I started having enough money to have something to protect and became more interested in economics. This unfortunately happened only recently and as a result I won't be as strongly positioned as I'd like to be, but taking any action at all puts me way ahead of anyone who took no action.

Regarding inflation being around 10% to 15%, yes, that is shocking beyond all belief. The effects of inflation are largely concealed because of cheap foreign imports. Look at the major expenses of average Americans; gas, electricity and housing. Look at the cost of a barrel of oil, not long ago people were awestruck when it rose over $50/barrel. Anyway, to really understand the situation take a look at M3, the total ammount of money that the Fed has created, click the link below and scroll down to see a handy chart, and you had better be sitting down when you do,

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/swanson112205.html

There is a sneaking suspicion amongst many that the government is trying to inflate away the national debt, similar to what the Germans tried after being heavily penalized after WWI. It is almost certain to have the same effect here and now as it did then. It is very telling that the Fed has been printing more than a trillion dollars a year for the past couple years, that's new actual dollars not new paper token to replace worn out paper tokens, and now is going to hide M3, the only measure of how much they are adding, in two months.

Also, the fed gov will have to increase the ammount of money they allow themselves to borrow simply to pay for day to day operations, in about two months. More money, more debt, you can see where this is going... this ponzi scheme is breaking down. If you have any doubts, just think of these three words, Baby Boom Retirement. I have heard that their medicare costs alone will exceed our entire current budget and everybody knows social security won't be there for us younger guys.

It simply is not safe to be heavily invested in the US dollar now. Since many other currencies rely heavily on the US dollar, it probably isn't safe to be heavy on them, either. If you had $1,000 US dollars in 1981, they would have HALF their buying power today, and that was at a much slower rate of real inflation than we are currently experiencing.

Silver and gold are and always will be safe havens. For you Christians and patriots, those are the only two forms of money aproved by both God and the US Constitution. Though it may appear their price fluctuates, as has already been pointed out dollars should be measured in terms of metals, not metals in terms of dollars. In terms of buying power, they don't really lose. In fact the only real hit in value that silver and gold took was when they were demonetized, that is, they were no longer the physical material money was made from or the physical material that was backing the money. That was simply a matter of supply and demand, if precious metals were monetized again their value would shoot through the roof. For example, monetized silver has historically been worth hundreds of dollars an ounce. In the event of a major economic meltdown metals could be monetized again, though I'm not banking on that.

Right now silver is tracking close to the inflation rate, making it a really good buy. That isn't a two-decade high price, that is the effect of inflation you are seeing. Gold seems to be growing faster than inflation, which means more risk, but it has a very strong basis upon which to be gaining that value and there is no reason to think it won't continue to rise. There are new factors in the market today, in India people are seeing more money than before, which means dowries and jewelry. In China the common people have just recently been granted the right to own gold and it will be distributed through their banks. Think about the size of the populations of these countries, as compared to the limited quantities of gold and silver available to purchase. For that matter, there is more paper silver being traded than physical silver. Silver is a safer bet than gold, that, percentage-wise has a higher potential gain. What's more is that silver is an industrial metal that is being consumed much faster than it can be mined, meaning that above ground stocks are being eaten away. There is likely less physical silver available for purchase than there is gold.

As to utility in a SHTF scenario, gold will not be as useful as silver. The reason is because it is already worth so much and will be worth even more then. The commonly used example is trying to buy a chicken with a $1,000 bill. Flashing your krugerands will probably get you whacked when somebody gets the impression you're some kind of apocolyptic billionaire. A much more useful form of money would be 90% coins, dimes, quarters and half dollars. Gold is great for transporting wealth, as noted you can fit your fortune in your pocket, and for that reason it isn't necessarily a bad thing to have, just use something else for your trading wampum.

In a SHTF scenario a can of beans, guns or bullets will be more useful than gold or silver. Maybe. That really depends on what happens. I used to believe in the end of civilization, because I love the apocolyptic movies of the 70's and 80's. Then I traveled the world and realized that things can go down the toilet but some semblance of society always remains, however seemingly uncivilized it is. In our most likely SHTF scenarios we will have an economic downturn or collapse which won't make the US into a Mad Max wasteland, but it will take everybody's money and make it hard to find work. You'll still need money, though. To pay your taxes, buy supplies, medical care, etc. Precious metals are just the ticket to preserve your wealth through such a scenario. That said, make sure you have the beans, bullets and blasters you need first. Those are basic necessities. If you're well stocked in those items, then you should look into metals. Land is a really good thing to own, too. 5 good acres and a modest house can feed and shelter you and your family. Get a small dairy cow like a dexter or something, some chickens or goats, plant some corn or potatoes, etc.

Anyway, just as a public service anouncement, do be aware that there is no reason to expect our economy to remain as good as it currently is. Expect a hard downturn and considerable devaluation of currency. Plan accordingly.

mrmeval
January 18, 2006, 09:20 AM
It's also overpriced with excessive shipping and handling.

Tons of silver and gold change hands on Ebay every day, with none of it being assayed.

mrmeval
January 18, 2006, 09:33 AM
The Yugo's will dry up completely. Silver will not yet.

In the 90s I bought a lot of inexpensive guns and everyone sold for more than I paid for it. The SKS and MAC90 earned more than I thought. I'd have made more in private sales but was desperate a the time.

An investment in mummy wrapped Yugos with log book and such would be a fine thing.

The standard axiom is buy low, sell high. Where are silver prices right now? Compared to the 3.25- 3.50/oz I paid in '97?
Has silver increased in value? Most definitely yes.
Will silver continue to increase? Those who want you to buy it would have you think so.
Go for the guns. You can buy a crate of Yugo SKSs for around $1800. What will happen to the price of Yugos when the supply dries up? Do the math.

SteelEye
January 18, 2006, 12:08 PM
Gold. Gold. Gold.

The spike in silver back in the late 70s was a fluke. Silver is a very tightly controlled commodity.

Firearms could get banned for whatever reason...it IS a possiblity.

For long term investments, I'd advise mutual funds, EFTs, SPYDERS, stocks, etc, but only after much and deep research. There are other precious metals, mostly man made that can lead you to your "pot of gold" but, again, research.

For the short term, oil stocks and associated processing stocks (shipping, processing, storage, fuel cells, etc) can pay good returns. Just remember, many of the richest oil producing nations are converting their wealth to tourism as they are the first to admit that the writing is on the wall for oil.

There is no shortcut to wealth.

V4Vendetta
January 18, 2006, 12:26 PM
"I can't defend myself against intruders with gold or diamonds, let alone kill food with it."


Gold is heavy. You could throw it at someone.:D :neener:

Malone LaVeigh
January 18, 2006, 12:31 PM
Since this is turning into a SHTF thread, here's my .000555 oz:

You CAN lose in real purchasing power by investing in metals. Anyone who put their life savings in gold or silver 25 years ago would just now be breaking even in inflated dollars, which means they would have lost big time in purchasing power. I am almost as pessimistic in the long run as Nem, but market forces are still real and powerful.

I think it's a good idea to have a portion of your assets in physical metals and other good. They are a hedge against extreme dollar devaluation, not investments. Just like your house, assuming you didn't speculate and go heavily into debt expecting the bubble to continue to expand forever. Guns also happen to be a pretty good hedge, but are not very liquid.

I think in general, 1-2% of one's total wealth in metals in a safe-deposit box or your gun safe is a good idea. That's my long-term target, enough to forget about and help me sleep at night. With all of the current macro forces threatening the dollar, if I have time I'll probably ratchet up to 5%. But be ready to sell back down to the base % if there's a big run-up and it still looks like civilization will survive a while longer.

On the original post, I read that article by Edgar Steele some time back and it is one of the things that got me thinking about investing in metals. He has a more recent piece out that is even better:

http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/columns/whirly.htm

It really gives me a sick feeling to recommend him, because most of his views are pretty sick. But I figure you're all adults and can seperate the wheat from the chaff.

R127
January 18, 2006, 01:59 PM
The problem with the "25 years ago" argument is that it really was a fluke. A Texas billionaire conspired with oil sheiks to corner the market on silver. There is no Texan or other billionaire currently cornering the market, these prices are what they are.

There is a caveat, Hunt still holds perhaps as much as 100 million ounces, half of that probably in Switzerland. Warren Buffet holds around an equal ammount. If they were to both decide to dump their silver there would be twice as much on the market and it would take a couple years for that to be consumed, meaning it'd be a good time to buy. Since neither Buffet nor Hunt have sold yet, I'm guessing they are in it for the long haul.

If you bought all your silver or gold during the market cornering attempt and held it since then, you're right, you didn't do too good. It probably wasn't a very logical action to take, but if you thought Hunt was really going to be able to pull it off I could imagine why you might think that was a good idea at the time. However, as I said above that does not relate to the current situation. If somebody did try to corner the market, wait for the spike and take proffit, when it's over buy it back at real market value.

There is every reason for gold and silver to keep climbing, from inflation to national currencies continuing to default. Every fiat currency in the history of the world devalues to zero. That may or may not happen to the US in the next ten years, as the initial post was asking, but it will eventually. In the last 100 years the dollar has lost 98% of its value. That's bad. If you consistently saved income above operating costs and a discretionary allowance in gold or silver, over your life your savings would hold rather than lose value and in a couple generations of such savings your family would be filthy rich. If you're a savvy stock investor you can probably do that on paper, too, but you need to beat 10-15% a year to break even. Energy stocks might do it.

Anyway, Japan just had big $300 billion problem on their market. I would not be suprised to see increased Japanese interest in buying gold this week. With 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians out there, both making more money than ever before, both coming from cultures that like to own gold, both being allowed to own it, there is plenty of demand and I have no doubts the next ten years will be good for precious metals.

I own guns, but haven't as yet invested in them, that is to say bought and put back guns in the hopes of their value increasing. I may someday. If I were to do that I would buy pistols and semi-auto "assault rifles" as that is where the demand, and the bans, will be. I wouldn't put money into full auto because it is a false market created by a Federal ban. If pro-machinegun Alito gets on the supreme court we may someday see a reversal of the no new machineguns order and then prices will plummet overnight. If it is TEOTWAWKI and nobody cares about laws, there will be machineguns a-plenty. Any semi auto can be converted to full auto in any number of ways, including just plain ol' bump firing. There may be a very real push to get the "smartguns" and integral trigger locks on new guns coming into the market. I would pay a bit extra for a non-pc gun.

Father Knows Best
January 18, 2006, 03:06 PM
Just buy whatever class of guns will be banned next, and you'll make some money. We should get up a poll; I would expect all .50 BMG rifles to be banned first. Anyone else have an opinion on what will be banned in 2008? (Hmmm, I guess FDR did ban gold coins... guess it could go either way).

My dad works at a gun shop that specializes in NFA stuff, and has a fairly wealthy clientele. He says that lots of guys with the money are buying .50BMG's right now just for speculation -- betting that they will be banned and prices will rise.

I don't see that as being a smart strategy. Sure, there will be a temporary spike in prices if new .50's are banned, or added to the NFA, but it will be only temporary. The problem is the demand side of the equation. .50BMG's are inherently of limited demand. With so few places to shoot them, and high expense of doing so, the market is pretty small. The don't have the appeal of collectibles in most cases, nor the movie-inspired desire that machine guns have (for the pure rock and roll fun of it). With lots of them being bought and put away without being fired, I expect there to be plenty of sellers even if a ban does happen. The one exception may be the Barrett M82A1. It was (one of?) the first, and it is a civvie version of a U.S. military rifle, which gives it historical/collector interest. Of course, it's also one of the most expensive of the current .50 BMG options.

You can buy a crate of Yugo SKSs for around $1800. What will happen to the price of Yugos when the supply dries up? Do the math.

Again, I disagree. Prices increase when demand exceeds supply. I don't see the demand for Yugo SKS's increasing significantly. If prices go up even a little with the end of importation, lots of people who bought them at $80-120 each will bring them out of their closets and put them back on the market. The supply will always be there. There are literally thousands of models of firearms no longer available that are worth no more today (and in many cases less) than when they were last made or imported, just because demand in practically non-existent.

DesertEagle613
January 18, 2006, 06:32 PM
A few quick points:

Precious metals have no more "intrinsic" value than does fiat money, with the exception of their use in electronics and the like. If you are looking for intrinsic value, think about physical infrastructure.

In particular, you will always need electricity. My take on things is that the best TEOTWAWKI investment, aside from guns, is solar power. It generates an endless supply of electricity, without needing any input other than free sunlight.

Yes, it's still a bit expensive. But the cost is comparable to investing in bonds; and either the price of power will go up and make your investment worth a lot more, or it will go down, in which case society will still be working pretty well.:cool:

And as someone mentioned earlier in the thread, both guns and metals just sit there unless the right circumstances come about. Otherwise, they represent inert money. Solar tech, on the other hand, is always yielding power. (You do have to worry about equipment failures, but so does everybody else for one reason or another.)

Coltdriver
January 18, 2006, 06:43 PM
I would suggest buying silver coins, US or Canadian. Get them in what ever quantities you can afford.

Then get at least enought guns and ammo to defend your horde later.

I would recommend against silver bullion.

Coins can be traded later for other things of value like land or food.

Bullion may not be so liquid.

Malone LaVeigh
January 20, 2006, 12:11 AM
Reviving this one with a question: Anyone have any thoughts on buying metals online? I took a chance recently with a small purchase from this (http://www.golddealer.com/) site. Now I'm worried about what kind of e-trail I might be leaving.
.

pharmer
January 20, 2006, 12:28 AM
Buy guns. I bought an Engelhard 100 oz .999 silver bar 25 years ago for $760 (with the fees and tax). Silver is 9.20 now. Smaller than a brick and about as much fun. Sits in back of the safe. Had it out maybe 2 years ago to show someone. "Wow a black brick". Wish I'd bought S&W model 27's in all the barrel lengths instead. More fun and a much better investment. Joe

benEzra
January 20, 2006, 03:20 PM
Precious metals have no more "intrinsic" value than does fiat money, with the exception of their use in electronics and the like. If you are looking for intrinsic value, think about physical infrastructure.
Except there is one important difference between fiat money and precious metals--the government can't create precious metals out of thin air in order to pay its debts, hence precious metals can't be instantly devalued by government decision due to the relatively fixed supply.

Whether or not one believes that is a likely scenario is another matter, but that is the one difference between metals (or any other tangible asset of limited availability) and fiat currency.

O.F.Fascist
January 20, 2006, 05:58 PM
make plenty of silver bullets.

LoadAmmo
February 2, 2006, 11:03 PM
Anybody else have input?

What firearms would be worth investing in versus Silver?

jeff-10
February 2, 2006, 11:13 PM
Problem with investing in firearms is that it is somewhat diffcult and can be costly to liquidate. Buying silver futures or something like that can all be done electronically.

answerguy
February 2, 2006, 11:36 PM
Disclaimer: IANAE. (I am not an economist.)



It is not the value of silver (or gold) that is changing. It is the unit of value in which the value of an ounce of silver is MEASURED that is changing. Silver (or gold) is not going up in price.


lpl/nc

So how is it that the prices of gold and silver fluctuate against each other?

telomerase
February 3, 2006, 01:12 AM
Except there is one important difference between fiat money and precious metals--the government can't create precious metals out of thin air in order to pay its debts, hence precious metals can't be instantly devalued by government decision due to the relatively fixed supply.

Very good point. If you want to invest in metal through your IRA instead of by buying a safe, you can buy the ETF "GLD" on the NYSE.

Probably best to do both, given the fact that Bush has beat LBJ for increases in spending. Only FDR stands between him and the record, and he still has time....

Malone LaVeigh
February 3, 2006, 02:15 AM
So how is it that the prices of gold and silver fluctuate against each other?
A lot of the overall inflation in price of PMs can probably be accounted for by dollar devaluation. The specific prices are due to the fact that they are traded in open exchanges.

Sir Aardvark
February 3, 2006, 03:36 AM
The best deal I ever made on a firearm was when I sold my "Police Sales Sample" Colt CAR-15 Government Carbine .223 for $1,500.00 during the crazy times preceding the Brady Bill Assault Weapon ban (around 1994, or so).

I purchased it from Keisler's Police supply for about $600.00. I felt a little guilty about selling it for that much, but it was the going market rate.

So... unless Congress is going to outlaw the guns that you purchased for an investment, thus driving up the price, you'll probably find that silver is a better option than guns for an investment.

There are SO MANY OTHER THINGS that you can make more money on than guns that you should really think twice before sinking any money into firearms as an investment.

benEzra
February 3, 2006, 09:38 AM
It is not the value of silver (or gold) that is changing. It is the unit of value in which the value of an ounce of silver is MEASURED that is changing. Silver (or gold) is not going up in price.
Metals are not going up tremendously in value, but they are going up in price. That's because the value of a dollar is decreasing by several percent per year.

Metals are a hedge to prevent one from losing value over a long-term currency depreciation. If you buy during a trough, you can get some real appreciation, but most people buy them as a hedge against inflation/devaluation rather than as an income asset.

walw
February 3, 2006, 01:26 PM
As for as NEW guns worth investing in, sounds like the civilian FN P90's won't be around for long.

Topgun
February 3, 2006, 02:34 PM
Some is correct. I was a dealer until retiring in 2003. I sold silver for $50 per oz and for $4 per oz and everything in between.

1. The "Hunts" did nothing wrong. The CBOT changed the rules on them because they owned more contracts than could be delivered and there was a definite possiblity of a financial crisis, so the GOVERNMENT stepped in and made a legal act (buying silver) an....illegal act. Sound familiar?

2. The GLD ETF should be researched thoroughly. Read the delivery rules. It may be the best way for a small amount like $1000 to play...gold.

3. Recognized silver bars and one ounce medallions trade REGULARLY with no need for assay or anything else. Unmarked bars will have to be assayed.

4. Dealers are too smart to offer $5.25 for silver when the market is $10. They WANT to buy as they are selling at 10 and want to buy as much as they can. As markets heat up, the "spreads" ....DO.... widen. At $50 if I remember right, it was like $49.80 buy and $54.00 sell on small quantities. $1000 is a small quantity.

5. A silver ETF is "in the works" should it be allowed to open, silver will rocket in price. The hitch is that the Silver Users Assn. is fighting the application tooth and nail. Users don't want the price higher.

6. Guns are an AWFUL speculation (at this time) Too much adverse paperwork, pending legislation, etc. to be able to count on knowing what to expect in a few years. Metals are less likely to be affected by laws. (And if they are, they can be sold ANYWHERE for the local currency)

7. Muscle cars are on my SELL list. The owners are aging and the foreign buyers are rethinking the future of large collectibles and the storage required.

8. Gold is the ultimate aim for a "stash." Silver is just a way to get more gold. Gold spreads are narrower than silver because the liquidity of gold is SUPERB. Silver is EXCELLENT, but pales in comparison to gold. Also silver is an industrial metal and could be adversely affected by a recession which will be announced by summer at the latest.

9. The USA is in debt. If a guy wanted to CHARGE a gun and had Uncle Sam's financial statement, he would be laughed at. Metals insure against a country going broke, losing jobs, and fighting an unwinnable and expensive war.

That's about it.

:)

Topgun
February 3, 2006, 02:40 PM
Almost forgot. Don't get hung up on price. EVERYONE should own some precious metal. If you have NONE, then it is a buy today. If you are thinking of adding, wait a bit for a direction and see if it goes up or down say 7% from current level and make up your mind to buy some at that point.

Average in if you are starting small.

$1000 in silver at 8 or 10 is not a huge difference. It is if you are trading it on the exchange and are subject to a margin call, but for a private stash, it really won't matter much when the TRUE "state of the nation" is discovered.

;)

Sungun09
February 3, 2006, 05:49 PM
Makes a great blackjack..

Seriously.. tho, take my wife please..

www.Golddealer.com Good prices, dependable service. So you leave a trail..... so do my .308s when they leave the mothership..

Nathanael_Greene
April 19, 2006, 08:45 AM
Interesting...for the last two months at least, silver seems like it would've been a better investment than firearms.

The commodity market sure is acting strangely. Probably not a bad idea to have some firearms *and* some precious metals.

LAK
April 20, 2006, 06:59 AM
Well, something is afoot:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/Releases/h6/discm3.htm

Release Date: November 10, 2005, revised March 9, 2006
Release dates | Historical data | About

----------------------------------------------------------

Discontinuance of M3
On March 23, 2006, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System will cease publication of the M3 monetary aggregate. The Board will also cease publishing the following components: large-denomination time deposits, repurchase agreements (RPs), and Eurodollars. The Board will continue to publish institutional money market mutual funds as a memorandum item in this release.

Measures of large-denomination time deposits will continue to be published by the Board in the Flow of Funds Accounts (Z.1 release) on a quarterly basis and in the H.8 release on a weekly basis (for commercial banks).

M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

[END]

So what precisely did the M3 data contain that they suddenly decide after all these years that we don't need to know any more? ;)

Right now, I'd say buy all the guns, bullets and beans you can afford - buy as much gold and silver as you can afford while you are at it.

----------------------------------------------

http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org

Fire4Effect
April 20, 2006, 07:26 AM
Hmmmm... Interesting thread.... If your gonna invest in metals, go for Titanium... at least if the economy crashes you can make guns and body armor with it.... that's got to be worth something...

Diomed
April 20, 2006, 09:00 AM
If your gonna invest in metals, go for Titanium... at least if the economy crashes you can make guns and body armor with it....

I suspect one would need a serious machine shop and some solid metalworking skills, with a lot of experience, in order to do anything with titanium. More trouble than it's worth in that circumstance.

I've avoided commodities of all kinds in the past, but given the serious structural problems I see emerging, I wonder if maybe tangible assets are perhaps not such a bad idea after all.

BigFatKen
April 20, 2006, 09:09 AM
Anyone who put $3038 + commision into a futures contract last week more than doubled their money if they sold MOC yesterday. 4/19/2006 silver went up 73 cents. At $50/cent, it went up $3650/5000 oz contract in one day. Prices uusally fall faster than they rise. So, BUYER BEWARE.

Beachmaster
April 20, 2006, 09:49 AM
Don't put all your eggs in one basket! Diversify your investments.

That way, if one investment tanks, you may still come out ahead.

xd9fan
April 20, 2006, 01:02 PM
both suck.

Nathanael_Greene
April 20, 2006, 02:39 PM
...and silver dropped $2.13 in New York today. Somebody got hammered, no doubt.

Joey2
April 20, 2006, 08:59 PM
Gold and silver are good investments. Purchase gold coins and silver coins. Take possession.

Guns are also a good investment, but the caveat is they may all be illegal in the long term.

If you are willing to cross the line then I say go for it because you will make money. When that time comes I don't think that it will make any difference.

Quite a few of you have shown that you do not have the stomach for this type of investment by your previous posts on subjects dealing with legalities of ; i.e. sending guns to another state without an FFL; convicted felons owning guns after they have served their sentences, etc.

Joey2
April 20, 2006, 09:01 PM
Gold and silver are good investments. Purchase gold coins and silver coins. Take possession. Way back when our monatariy system was based on silver.

Guns are also a good investment, but the caveat is they may all be illegal in the long term.

If you are willing to cross the line then I say go for it because you will make money. When that time comes I don't think that it will make any difference.

Quite a few of you have shown that you do not have the stomach for this type of investment by your previous posts on subjects dealing with legalities of ; i.e. sending guns to another state without an FFL; convicted felons owning guns after they have served their sentences, etc.

Coltdriver
April 20, 2006, 10:54 PM
I have a good friend who recently pointed out that 5000 rounds of .22 ammo is only about $80 on sale.

I think the barter value of a litte 22 ammo may be worth its weight in gold or silver at some point.

A .22 is a great little round and 5000 rounds of it will go a long way.

WeedWhacker
April 21, 2006, 07:41 AM
For the curious, what options are available for those folks who may be interested in keeping a small ($1,000 or less) amount of precious metals on-hand, and don't want to worry about remelting/assaying? I've heard that silver doesn't generally need to be re-assayed, at least in, say, 1oz or 10oz pieces, but what about gold? Where would someone find more information on those "plastic, tamper-resistant packets of gold from Switzerland", etc.?

I.e., a trusted, easily-tradable, portable way to purchase a small quantity of precious metal which isn't subject to "collector" economics or expensive procedures on resale.

beaucoup ammo
April 21, 2006, 07:49 AM
One "B" share of BRK wiill give you his entire portfolio. Go for the silver. Hold on to every gun you have..you might need it sooner rather than later.

Before I get booted for topic content, just a regular prime rate money market account is pushing 5%. That tells me a lot. Saw my first $3 gas here in San Antonio yesterday.

Keep those guns.

Take Care

Coltdriver
April 21, 2006, 08:39 AM
WeedWhacker,

Go buy US Silver Eagles. They are one ounce coins of pure silver. Small, easy to sell individually and recognized everywhere.

I would never get bars simply because a large bar can not be divided and small bars may or may not have recognition problems.

US Minted silver coins, no problem and you can buy them one at a time or in batches. They usually run two dollars over spot.

wingnutx
April 21, 2006, 02:42 PM
Best of both worlds:
http://www.punk-rock.com/iraq/goldak-x.jpg

In that excellent Venezuelan SHTF article, the author noted that plain stamped gold rings were much easier to trade than coins or bullion, since they were much smaller. He suggested stocking up on a modest supply of 24k rings.

I think I am going to purchase some small pieces of silver bullion, 1 oz or so, since it is an easy purchase given my current budget.

rangermonroe
April 21, 2006, 02:50 PM
Back in 1999, I bought a bit of gold & silver coins.

You can buy 1/10 oz us eagles. They cost a few dollars over spot, but are in fact money.

Byron Quick
April 21, 2006, 04:15 PM
I'd go with precious metals. Most of the guns I would consider to be investments are those highly desired by collectors. NFA weapons' prices have been climbing steadily since 1986-true. However, this is because of government distortion of the market. You could wind up in the situation of the folks who are still trying to push their weapons as 'pre-ban' in a vain attempt to recoup what they spent on them when the AWB was in effect.

I don't think that buying weapons whose only increase in value is due to government distortion of the marketplace can be termed 'investment. The true term would be speculation. This doesn't mean that it is necessarily an unprofitable activity. It just means that the rules are different. People make tons of money from speculating from a knowledgeable standpoint. People lose tons of money by mistaking speculation for investment.

BigFatKen
April 21, 2006, 04:24 PM
Yes silver dropped $2 yesterday and today it went up 44 cents. Yesterday MOC was a good entry point.

odysseus
April 21, 2006, 04:38 PM
I can run around in real estate and stocks, but metals confuses me a little. Not something we got into academically too much outside of history in finance classes. Thanks for some of the insights.

1) Seems many of you say to buy it physically. I can see the reasoning on it. However from my experiences buying is usually not a problem, selling is. So if I buy coin or bar, who is guaranteed to buy it? If the dollar falls so crazily and you wanted to sell some, who's gonna buy? I figure you have to transport it yourself to do the trade. So you figure many other metal holders may be out there pushing to sell too.

2) So why does GLD ETF sound good then if people say buy it physically? It does for me, but it is just a certificate of a share in gold, right?

To the thread, I don't really consider firearms investment grade items - and more like others say like cars, collectables, etc. It is not accessibly traded, and barriers to trading exist heavily by laws that are aimed at preventing exchange.

Thin Black Line
April 21, 2006, 05:16 PM
Take physical possession of metals: coins, ingots, bars. The 10 oz bars
of silver I have have more than doubled in price which is nice as an
investment. But if you're looking at "portable money" short of SHTF,
then 1oz silver coins and more preferably any weight of gold coins (1/10
thru 1 oz) are great. The US$ is losing value against all other major world
currencies, but precious metals are not. Even if you have US Eagles, they
are still a precious metal and can be exchanged for whatever other
currency in the country you land in minus a transaction fee.

It doesn't hurt to have coins from other countries --the Canadian
gold Maples are 99.9% pure unlike the Krugers.

Koobuh
April 21, 2006, 05:36 PM
Precious metals are NOT a good investment over long term periods.
The price is volatile, and dependant as much on supply as on demand. What do you think will happen if a couple massive new gold or silver mines are discovered and the market is flooded? Your metals will become much less valuable overnight.
Metals are a high risk market better left to day-traders and survivalists.

Also, ALWAYS take delivery of marked, sealed metal pieces. The 'allocated storage' people... Have you SEEN your investment with your own two eyes? These companies could fold up shop and disappear overnight, taking your 'investment' with them, and you would have little to no recourse.


If you want a safe, secure, long term investment that will actually make returns consistently, invest in a diversified stock portfolio and government bonds. Real property is too volatile long term, and subject to non-market devaluing forces, like fires and floods.

If you must, buy good-or-better-condition military surplus weapons that have a following right now, like Swiss K-31s, Enfields, Mausers, and rarer variants of Mosin-Nagant rifles, as well as the milsurp pistols. The prices on many of these are artificially low right now, and as soon as the import supply dries up prices will surge, as happened with the Swedish Mausers, for example. NIB guns are a fair Long Term investment, but will take many, many years to accrue value as they are obviously still in production and can be had in a store.

wdlsguy
April 21, 2006, 06:38 PM
For the curious, what options are available for those folks who may be interested in keeping a small ($1,000 or less) amount of precious metals on-hand, and don't want to worry about remelting/assaying?

I'm a big fan of pre-1965 silver coins (dimes, quarters, halves). $1 face contains 0.714 ounces of silver, so if silver is $13 per ounce, you should pay $9.28 plus a small premium for 10 dimes / 4 quarters / 2 halves.

http://www.ajpm.com/htbin/silver.cgi
http://www.ajpm.com/htbin/gold.cgi

Also keep an eye out for pre-1965 silver coins on eBay.

Topgun
April 21, 2006, 06:56 PM
$1000 is not even worth considering precious metals. I am a retired pawnbroker/bullion dealer and at the present time, I have more bullion than at any time during my career.
The dollar is toast.
We make nearly NOTHING.
Our debt is STAGGERING.
You WILL see FAR higher gold and silver prices. China is growing, India is growing....and the US only has a bunch of CONSUMERS.

You don't take "need" to a football game. You take a FOOTBALL.

As our standards decline, the Asians are expanding. WHEN they are self sufficient (from our loyal purchases of THEIR goods) they will then have an expanding consumer economy of THEIR OWN.

AND....at that point....they will not need us nor care about us ...except to buy our real estate from our broke asses with a depreciating currency based on overpriced houses, undereducated kids, and no factories.

YOU decide. Are metals foolish investments?

Tell me what is better. Listen to Bob Stinker on the radio and he'll tell you to buy no load mutual funds and that's ALL he knows.

Buy foreign bond funds if you buy bonds. SOME US bonds. But be prepared to see our dollar completely at the mercy of Asia in the very near future.

Buy some Canadian oil royalty trusts. SEARCH out the DECENT ones.

Get expert help if you do not know how to analyze them yourself.

But....do NOT expect this declining nation to be able to support the debt it has. Your kids ...should.... hate this generation for what we have ALLOWED to happen.

I have a full 50% in gold and silver bullion at present. The balance is in foreign bond fund and a COMMERCIAL ONLY reit (which I watch closely) and oil distribution and natural gas wells.

Stuff you NEED!

Get ready for the ride of your life. It will be interesting.

NO guns will be "investments." Except in the pleasure they give YOU.

Guns WILL be in demand if they are modern and use readily available ammo.

:)

Topgun
April 21, 2006, 07:03 PM
I should amend that post to say that $1000 per month would be worth considering. But $1000 is a nearly insignificant amount to most of the world. US "workin stiffs" have a hard time with a grand, but the foreign investors realize that it now only represents an ounce and a half of gold.

Buy physical metal over time. You will be glad you did. Especially when India and China have eclipsed the US in EVERY arena.

We USED TO BE the best country in the world. No longer. Yes, we are the most FUN place to live, but the growth of China leaves no doubt that it is NOW the greatest "country." And with a dictatorial government, they can see to it that they STAY that way.

It's a new world, folks.
:(

LAK
April 21, 2006, 07:12 PM
Nathanael_Greenesilver dropped $2.13 in New York today. Somebody got hammered, no doubt.
Silver and gold are constants. Where there is a change in the relationship between the dollar and silver, it is the dollar that has risen or dropped - not silver. This is what floating currencies like the dollar are subject to.

The steady fall in the dollar is one of the reasons it sometimes takes so many of them to buy a barrel of oil. But if you notice, even with these fluctuations, temporary level offs are rarely back to that of a year or two previous. This is the devaluation of the dollar, and why every decade or so since the late 1940s it takes five to ten times as many of them to buy certain items etc. A car is a good example; look at how mnay dollars it cost to buy a new car in 1950 compared to today.

wingnutxIn that excellent Venezuelan SHTF article, the author noted that plain stamped gold rings were much easier to trade than coins or bullion, since they were much smaller. He suggested stocking up on a modest supply of 24k rings.

I think I am going to purchase some small pieces of silver bullion, 1 oz or so, since it is an easy purchase given my current budget.
This makes alot of sense. I think old worn low denomination U.S. silver coins are a good idea as well; specifically dimes, quarters, half-dollars and dollars. The ones with little or no collector value. Easily recognizable, and usable for small transactions.

--------------------------------------------

http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org

odysseus
April 21, 2006, 07:49 PM
So again, are their any concerns to look out for in selling gold you physically have stocked?

PlayTheAces
April 21, 2006, 08:44 PM
Odysseus,

I'll take an amateurish shot at answering your questions, or at least toss my thoughts your way:

1) Seems many of you say to buy it physically. I can see the reasoning on it. However from my experiences buying is usually not a problem, selling is. So if I buy coin or bar, who is guaranteed to buy it? If the dollar falls so crazily and you wanted to sell some, who's gonna buy? I figure you have to transport it yourself to do the trade. So you figure many other metal holders may be out there pushing to sell too.

1. I don't think there's any guarentee that anyone will buy anything from anyone. However, gold has been a medium of exchange throughout recorded history. Seems like someone always wants the silly stuff.

2. Most large cities have bullion exchange houses. You walk in, give them your metal, and they give you dollars or a check. In smaller areas, coin shops serve the same purpose. Usually you sell for spot, buy at spot plus a small markup.

3. As far as competing with other common citizen types if you decide to sell, I don't think the average American holds much in the way of metals. Know anyone with a pound of gold? How about 100 ounces of silver. Those people are out there, probably a few on this board, but they're in the minority.

If the dollar drops and you want to sell, do you think most people would prefer to have a devaluing dollar in their hand, or an ounce of silver? Don't think you'd have a problem selling.

If you have gold or silver eagles, I can't imagine you'd have a problem getting rid of them. They're highly liquid. Ninety percent silver coins, war nickels, forty percent silver halves, etc. are slightly less desireable as they have to be refined to extract the silver. Same problem with sterling silver, not quite as desireable nor as liquid as pure silver.

All this is strictly personal opinion and worth what you paid for it. :D

Oh yeah, if you buy - take possession. Would you buy a gun and let the dealer keep it for you?

JohnBT
April 21, 2006, 10:02 PM
Let's see, do I buy $10k or $20k worth of gold and silver that pays 0% interest and no dividends year after year, or buy a CD at SunTrust where the current APY is 5.25%? Decisions,decisions, decisions.

I know what I paid for my coins in the '50s and '60s - face value - and I know what they've returned - zip, they just sit there. Okay, so they're worth more, they haven't put a penny in my pocket yet. I'd sell them, but it's too much work to haul them around.

Guns, now there's something you can get some use out of. :)

John

Freedspeak
April 22, 2006, 01:28 AM
I believe lead, brass and copper may have the best value in the long run ( in the proper configuration :) ) Other good investments might include potassium nitrates or other base minerals.

Been a bit pessamistic recently.:cool:

WeedWhacker
April 22, 2006, 04:29 AM
Go buy US Silver Eagles. They are one ounce coins of pure silver. ... US Minted silver coins, no problem and you can buy them one at a time or in batches. They usually run two dollars over spot.

That's just about what I'm looking for... but not the 20% markup! (!!!) Those "silver rounds" I've heard about are probably what I'll be after, assuming they sell for just a reasonable bit above spot.

Thin Black Line
April 22, 2006, 07:55 AM
Yeah, the $ is toast:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/04/22/cnriks22.xml&menuId=242&sSheet=/money/2006/04/22/ixcity.html

LAK
April 22, 2006, 08:41 AM
It's toast alright; as all fiat currencies eventually become. And when it's toasted - they'll have a new Pan-American replacement ready to take it's place for a repeat performance.

------------------------------------------

http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org

Kodiaz
April 22, 2006, 09:31 AM
I recently started buying the silver eagles I don't have a lot of money to spend on the stuff but I'm trying to buy 3 or 4 a week from here out. I think the dollar is going down and soon. Now if you don't have a good amount of food or ammo get that first then start buying silver.

Topgun
April 23, 2006, 04:56 PM
Suggest you buy 1 oz generic rounds instead of the silver eagles. At higher silver prices they will trade at the same price. When Warren Buffet made his purchases a few years back and drove silver crazy for a while all silver was trading for the same price. 100 oz, 10 oz, 1 oz. all same. The game is to get silver and the lowest premium you can find is what to get.

And.....the ONLY bars which ALWAYS trade for the spot price are the Comex "good delivery" one THOUSAND ounce bars. All others must be repoured into 1000 oz bars to be accepted for delivery to those who have purchased on the commodity exchange.

Silver is more volatile than gold. There are far more gold buyers as foreign governments and central banks are constantly buying and selling gold.

Topgun
April 23, 2006, 04:58 PM
Here's a place to see what various metal products cost.

http://www.tulving.com/

Topgun
April 23, 2006, 05:05 PM
Let's see, do I buy $10k or $20k worth of gold and silver that pays 0% interest and no dividends year after year, or buy a CD at SunTrust where the current APY is 5.25%? Decisions,decisions, decisions.

You don't buy gold as an "investment." You buy it for insurance. Insurance against any and all international currencies or restrictions on your movement from place to place.

Your 5.25% returns have been DWARFED by the movement in precious metals. Why? Because savvy buyers realize that a 5/25% return on a 40% depreciating asset is just worse than spinning your wheels.

Ask any European who has gone through a currency devaluation or a monster inflation or deflation. One thing holds value through the CENTURIES. It is gold. All paper currencies go to zero over the long haul.

You need only enough "money" to pay expenses to those who still call it "money."

Your and your children's futures depend on not following the habitually stupid American version of misunderstanding economics. Americans know football. The "other stuff" they just don't get.

:banghead:

Thin Black Line
April 23, 2006, 05:38 PM
Regarding the film "All Quiet on the Western Front" (1930):

The (raw german) recruits are sent to a bomb-ravaged French town where they meet the battle-weary veterans (WWI). When Paul remarks that they haven’t eaten since breakfast, the stoic Tjaden replies, "It’s a bad town to bring an appetite to, soldier. We’ve been here since yesterday morning and we’ve been living on a bale of hay and razor blades." When Sergeant Katczinsky returns with a pig, the boys learn that they are a long way from home: their offer of money for meat is dismissed as "only paper" and the only viable currency is cigarettes, cognac and chewing tobacco.

Precious metals are still of value even in a situation like this since it's
a universal hard currency. Other nice things to have are typical high use
consumer goods such as batteries, gasoline, motor oil, tires, condoms and
chocolate. It's far easier to trade a couple rounds of silver than a couple
pounds of condoms for gasoline....;)

mrrick
April 24, 2006, 12:48 AM
I repeat what was posted bfore:

One thing I found out in the 1979 silver run up; for example, I buy an oz. of silver today for $5.00, tomorrow the quote is $10., I go back to the dealer, the dealer isn't going to give me anything near $10. he gave $5.25.
When there is a hot market the buy-sell spread gets very big to protect the dealer. After commissions, it wasn't worth it.

LAK
April 24, 2006, 04:09 AM
Topgun is right on the money; gold and silver are not investments; they are insurance. Gold and silver do not rise and fall in value; it is paper script - fiat money - that rises and falls.

TopgunSilver is more volatile than gold. There are far more gold buyers as foreign governments and central banks are constantly buying and selling gold.
Yep; The London Fix generally leads the way.

--------------------------------------------

http://ussliberty.org
http://ssunitedstates.org

Thin Black Line
April 24, 2006, 07:51 AM
It's 7:39am Eastern on Monday....and I have my coffee before I get to
work...ah, yes, add coffee beans to list of goods to take immediate
physical possession. Let's check the morning biznews:

US "imbalance":
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,8210-2149380,00.html

Nothing like the soft wording of "economic earthquake."

More on big IMF meeting over the weekend:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060424/finance_meetings.html?.v=2

What? There was a big meeting in DC over the weekend?

Nikkei drops 2.8% Monday:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060424/japan_markets.html?.v=10

Policy set over weekend, push "start" button on Monday.

US stock futures down before market open Monday:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060424/wall_street.html?.v=2

The yen, which often serves as a proxy for the difficult-to-trade yuan, surged to nearly a three-month high, with the dollar falling as low as Y114.83 from Friday's Y116.58.

The weakening dollar in particular hit Asian stock markets, with the Nikkei 225 down sharply in Tokyo, while European stock markets edged lower.

Must keep repeating mantra that $9+ trillion goverment debt, negative
citizen savings, and factories being moved overseas means nothing to the
overall economic health of America. Just gotta keep moving the $ around
in a big shell game between a few stocks, commodities, and real estate to
keep the boat afloat.....

JohnBT
April 24, 2006, 08:05 AM
I agree it's not an investment. Therefore, the answer to the original questions posted is what? NO, neither.

____________________________________________________________
"To invest in Silver Bullion or Firearms?

What do you think about investing in silver bullion versus NIB firearms?
____________________________________________________________

Having survived the Hunt brothers attempted cornering of the silver market (and I made some $$$ on it and also saved a number of rare coins from being sold at bullion prices), I just don't think I want to have more than a small percentage of my net worth in precious metals. Of course, I don't think I want to have more than a small percentage of my net worth in CDs either. Diversity is a good thing. I don't see the dollar falling apart anytime soon, despite all the handwringing.

John

Chrontius
April 24, 2006, 11:50 PM
Do both. Buy silver bullets.

Templar223
April 25, 2006, 08:43 PM
Bogie wrote "...diversify."

That's the word everyone needs to remember.

Yeah, firearms are a good investment and they can save your bacon.

Yeah, junk silver is a fairly liquid form of silver that can be sold as investment money or it can be kept for a SHTF rainy-day scenario, not to mention the numismatic value, especially for kids.

Yeah, I don't keep all my cash at the bank. I "diversify" my risk of losing cash. I also do the same with guns (gasp!).

I have precious metals that I sink some of my "play" money into as a hedge against hyperinflation (they, along with the guns provide excellent protection).

Ammo is another form of currency, and just a plain good investment, especially given the recent dramatic price spikes.

DIVERSIFY your holdings across the board and reduce your exposure to risk. It's the prudent thing to do.

John

Art Eatman
April 25, 2006, 09:15 PM
Precious metals are speculative investments. There are many ways to profit. One is to buy when it's low--as back at $300 for gold and $4 for silver--and add some on the way up. When you think it's peaked, sell off about a third or a half. Invest the profit as you see fit.

Trouble is, most people haven't paid attention over the last ten or fifteen years, and by the time they figure out it MIGHT be a good thing, they're late to the party. That happened to a lot of people when the Hunt brothers manipulated the silver market in 1979-1980, and folks got badly burned. Many of them STILL don't understand what happened.

The least-cost way to buy silver is what are called "Junk US silver coins". Dimes, quarters and halves minted in 1964 and earlier. That's the minimum premium over bullion value. The bullion value is 0.712 times the spot price of silver, per dollar, per thosuand dollars, whatever. A $1,000 bag will cost 0.712 times the spot price of silver, plus a small premium. The buy-back would be near the spot value.

Odds are, right now, that the dollar will continue its decline. Inflation will continue at it's real rate--which I, me, Ol' Art, thinks is around double the offficial number. The Chinese government has said it's gonna keep buying gold in ton-sized lots. They're talking about starting a gold ETF (look that up) which would do to gold what the silver ETF has done to silver: Push up the price.

Right now, I'd pick gold/silver over guns. Been working that way for over a year, now. No signs yet of stopping.

Art

Shrinkmd
April 26, 2006, 01:12 PM
If things got to the point that ammo could be used for trade purposes, is it a "good thing" for others to know that you have some to spare? Obviously better to have more than less, but as far as trading things, if you trade condoms or coffee, no one is going to try and use what you just traded to them to come and try and get the rest of your stash!:uhoh:

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