Surplus Ammunition SITREP 2006


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Scribe
March 7, 2006, 01:21 PM
Well, everyone needs to read carefully this thread then PLEASE pass the information along.
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Let us begin with the 7.62x39 Russian manufactured ammunition situation for 2006. Their is NO Issues with ANY Import Paperwork, Regulations, Customs Shipment clearing, nor any other shipping issues on this side of the Atlantic ! This is from the Importer SSI that imports Wolf brand and DKG who imports Brown Bear brand.
Anyone who wishes PLEASE feel free to copy and post this infor else where as long as its OK with the Frugal Admins.

What is a continuing problem on the Russian Docks is the Russian Mafia which on occasion brings delays.

The Russian Government Contracts were ALL Filled by Mid January 2006. Wolf and Brown Bear are up to FULL capacity production for their Civilian Contract commitments. However, Both have said that supply will NOT catch-up with demand until the END of 2006. Here is another BUT; If the Russian Government gets more opportunity to sell ammo to Iraq, Afganistan, China, or anyone else then production cuts will occur again. For now NO such opportunities appear on the horizon.

Prices Will NOT go back to $100 per 1000 round case however. This due to the well know cost increases in transportation.

Now for the Really BAD NEWS !

First - the 308 Surplus ammunition situation. The QUALITY Surplus like South African, Portugues, Radway Green, and Hirtenburger is about to Disappear for good. The Portugues is GONE except for what is in the pipeline. The same with Radway Green. As for the South African it will begin to run out starting in about July 2006 and then when its gone its GONE. Have you noticed the climb in price on these well it is going to get worse. The time is soon coming when ALL QUALITY 308 Surplus will be gone leaving ONLY such poor choices as India. Yes, ALL QUALITY 308 Gone by the end of 2007 but probably much MUCH sooner even with Price increases.

Second - the 5.56 surplus situation. Again the Quality Surplus is ALL but GONE NOW. What is in the pipeline is IT. Radway Green - get it while you can. South African is GONE except for what distributers and retailers have already.

So what will take the Quality low priced Surplus ammunition's place ? Well it WON'T be LOW Cost. This is in reference to 5.56 and 308. Look for Aguila to start exporting .223 / 5.56 to the US in the some what near future. Efforts are being made to convince the Aguila people and the Privy Partisan ( Yugoslave) sources to produce M193 Spec ammo and package it in plain brown cases for sale in the US. M193 Spec is vital to avoid the problems such as Backed-out primers and too long case necks with such brands as Olympic.

I said Cost would NOT be low. Well Aguila would run about .20 plush transportation cost per round to the Distributers OUCH ! The Privy Partisan would be the same.

Keep in mind that I did NOT say a shortage of 5.56 or 308 in general. I said QUALITY Brands and sources of Surplus will disappear. Indian etc. will be here but STAY Away from ANY Troublesome Brand. What the future of Military calibre ammo is can simply be put this way; Militay Surplus will DISAPPEAR Completely. ALL AMMO will be Civilian in type or if you prefer "De-Militarized" . Aguila has been told by distributers here in the US to use M193 specs but I am unsure if that includes Crimped Boxer type Primers. It will use Boxer primers for sure. Aguila produces ALL of the 5.56 ammo for the Mexican Government so they are NOT new to that calibre.

Both the Aguila and Privy Partisan people have been around for Decades even though the packaging and Brand names have in some cases changed over the years. The both produce decent quality ammo and there is NO reason to expect any change there. Privy Partisan has sold under the Brand name of HOTSHOT ammo.

For those who are interested, Privy Partisan produces the Wolf Gold Brand of ammo.


Speaking of Wolf ammo; the Steel case will cause accellerated Extractor wear especially for ARs and Mini 14s.

Well I will add anything I have forgotten later.

NMCB3 some of my sources are mentioned in my post. Namely SSI, DKG, another is Ammo To Go a distributer who's owner personally communicates with Aguila. SSI is the Importer of Wolf Brand ammo amoung others. DKG is the Importer of Brown Bear Brand ammo as well as others. The information on South African ammo came from the Importer via Ammo to Go whos owner knows the Importer on a first name basis as is true for DKG, SSI, and Aguila.

My associates have been and continue to stock up on what they need. The object is to avoid the need to buy the Quality ammo at the High prices they will fetch later this year.

Some of the Distributers who deal in the South African 308 have listen to my warnings and stock piled MONGO amounts. However, when it ceases to be available the prices will reflect that situation. So Buy now or Pay the penalties later. None of the Distributers I know will hold back on sales at the current prices. They do however expect many will wait until the last minute at end-up paying the higher prices.

Look, it is a NO Brainer that costs will continue to rise along with Oil. Why wait to stock-up? If you divide you stocks of ammo into Two categories one Long Term (Strategic) and the other consumable (Practice) then I would focus on the Quality Long term since the Practice will remain resonably priced.

Components are NOT Immune from cost increases. Stock accordingly or you wallet will be screaming in pain later.

The whole point of my contacting the EXPERTS is to Benefit you all with the advanced Heads-up. Some of you know that I have been following and investigating the future of Ammunition for many months now. You also know I have been Correct and accurate in the information I have presented. This post is NO Less accurate or Definitive. NO B.S. is included.

I have not looked into the Surplus Handgun ammunition situation. I will see what Ican do in that department soon.

Just Remember, UNCLE SAMMY REQUIRES ALL Imported ammunition to be sporting in packaging and could at ANY TIME Cut-off FMJ in Military calibres both rifle and handgun. The Regulations already exist. Thankfully G.W. hasn't pulled that one on us.

In fact that is how it is in Mexico. My advice, Stock up a LIFE TIME supply of every surplus calibre you need NOW.

After going over my notes and a good nights sleep I found it necessary to add one piece of ADVISE I was given again and again: If someone wants a supply of any of the Quality Brands I mentioned in my original post on this thread BUY IT NOW or either MISS-OUT Completely or end-up paying a higher price later as the Quality surplus disappears. That will happen sooner for some brands than others. I mentioned that RADWAY GREEN in 308 is GONE and in 5.56 ALMOST GONE totally. The same is true for Portugues 308.

What will be left in the inexpensive 308 surplus market into 2007 will Maybe Malasian, some Australian, Pakistani, Yugoslavian, and of course that DREADED Indian.

IMI may still be around but will go up in price as it is bought by those who miss-out on the South African etc.

Already Surplus is starting to disappear from the discount sources such a Sportsman's Guide. So when its gone its gone; BUY what you NEED NOW DO NOT PUT IT OFF if you want your choice of Quality Brand Names in 308 and 5.56.

I want to express my THANKS to all who have posted.

A special thanks to padi for the Cabellas Link on Wolf Gold. I was Blind when I looked too little sleep.

XF2, your post on the Head Stamp on Indian ammo is a Big help. Thank you very much.

I also want to thank j.r.guerra in s.tx. for postinmg the link on the problems with Indian 308.

A big thanks to farranger for the detail on Malaysian ammo and the tip on which of it might be useful. I have not heard of any damage being down to firearms by it, just that it can be really dirty and has Lousy accuracy.

Hannibal Smith, Since Winchester is no longer producing Model 94s, 70s, or 1300's ; do you think the used prices will start going up once the General Public finds out?

THAXx, I can assure you that the Countries from which the Quality Surplus 308 and 5.56 come from are completely depleted in some cases or nearly so in others. RADWAY GREEN in both 308 and 5.56 and Portuguese 308 and 7.62x39 are both GONE at the source. Any supplies left are what remains in the pipeline.

South African WILL stop coming around JULY 2006. After that it will still be in stock here in this Country as MUCH has been stock piled but prices will go up once the supply is cut-off.

It seems the Australian ammo is about gone even out of the pipeline. The Malaysian is HARD to find as well.

IMI is only available one or two places now. I am NOT sure if anymore will come in the future.

Hirtenburger is an UNKNOWN as to if it will continue to be Imported. If you want it find the best price and BUY It.

As far as Wolf, Brown Bear, Bernaul, and other Russian Brands will continue to be Imported buy the prices of Yester-year are a DEAD Issue. Thank You 30-30 for Reminding us all that the components for ammunition have also gone-up and will for the foreseable future.

This thread is an example of how Vital it is for each of us to seek alll of the information we can collect and contribute that information to Every Corner of the World Wide Web.

Old Sarge, Three reasons are the force behind inexpensive Military Surplus Ammunition supplies drying-up for Good or until these conditions change.

1) The UN's Convention on the Reduction of Small Arms, Munitions, and other Military Surplus is aimed at STOPPING the Worldwide Trade in FIRST the Military then Civilian Arms Business. They have gotten even UNCLE SAMMY to Coorperate courtesy of Billy Bob Clinton and G.W. on DEMILLITARIZING Ammunition and stiffening IMPORT Regulations on SOME Small Arms. Other Nations are beginning to fall into line on compliance. This is why in part the 1989 Import Ban on Assualt Weapons remains. It is also why Parts for them are having Additional restrictions placed upon them. The Eventual Goal being the Disarming of EVERY Nation's Population.

2) The conflicts around the World are consuming Large amounts of 5.56, 7.62x39, and 7.62x51 (308)'s Current Production not only here in the US but around the world.

3) Military Ammunition from other Nations is drying-up for a number of reasons among which is that they are producing ONLY the Calibres and amounts they need. Look for the Cut-Off of Military type ammunition through the use of various means to increase. Import / Export Regulations will be one of those means. I am surprised that the Importation of Military CALIBREs at least in FMJ type ammo have NOT been restricted or CUT-OFF already in the US. Is this universally the case at this Time? NO. But efforts are being increased to CUT-OFF ALL Trade in Small Arms and Muntions both Military and Civilian.

There is an additional Domestic reason for all that is happening.

4) Our National Leaders both Elected and Appointed WANT the Elimination of Private Ownership and Possession of Firearms and Ammunition NOT Only in the US but World Wide. They will NOT stop until that Goal is reached.

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kfranz
March 7, 2006, 01:40 PM
Great 1st post, with no source listed....

ID_shooting
March 7, 2006, 01:47 PM
I will give him the bennefit of the doubt, but I was expecting a "buy you ammo here" link follwing this (the sky is falling) post.

Mikee Loxxer
March 7, 2006, 02:29 PM
Wow, if this info is good it looks like we will have to start reloading and aiming all of our shots.:neener:

Tory
March 7, 2006, 02:32 PM
The assertions seem credible, given the circumstances. Still, a post without specific citations from a first-timer. :scrutiny:

Sawdust
March 7, 2006, 02:38 PM
This would appear to be a thread pasted from Frugal Squirrel.

Sawdust

Spot77
March 7, 2006, 02:56 PM
Most of it makes sense though.

I mean surplus is just that - surplus. And that's why it's sold cheaply, right?

The lack of references doesn't bother me too much. It's not like I need much provacation to go out and buy more ammo. :evil:

dm1333
March 7, 2006, 03:32 PM
I didn't want to cut and paste one of the lines (too lazy) but he states that quality surplus .308 is about to dry up and there will be no more. I see a lot of surplus 5.56, 9mm, .308 in the future. At some point the U.S. will change calibers again. I think that the surplus ammo situation is cyclical and we are at a low spot right now. At some point in the future there will be more surplus. Of course I'm still buying 7.62x54R like it is going out of style! If any of you come across any .303B let me know.

iamhistory
March 7, 2006, 03:51 PM
Sorry fellas......I call bs

simon
March 7, 2006, 04:28 PM
It appears that ammunitionstore.com still has a lot.....

The Freeholder
March 7, 2006, 04:31 PM
Here's the entire thread at Frugal's if anyone wants to read it:

http://www.frugalsquirrels.com/ubb/ultimatebb.php?ubb=get_topic;f=7;t=010997

Me, I'm not seeing any ammo shortage. Most of the online sources seem to have plenty.

Gewehr98
March 7, 2006, 04:37 PM
I have thousands of rounds of handloaded 8mm, .30-06, .308, .223, and 20 other flavors, plus the Dillon and Hornady presses and components to keep that supply going. Surplus, whoop-de-doo. Let it dry up. :rolleyes:

AZ Jeff
March 7, 2006, 06:08 PM
I have thousands of rounds of handloaded 8mm, .30-06, .308, .223, and 20 other flavors, plus the Dillon and Hornady presses and components to keep that supply going. Surplus, whoop-de-doo. Let it dry up.
I concur. I prefer to make my own ammo anyhow. I dont' have to worry about the QC of some third world factory, nor the stability of storage issues that come with such ammo.

Propellant, projectiles, and cases for major military calibers are easy to come by in bulk.

dm1333
March 7, 2006, 07:22 PM
I live in a VERY small apartment right now. With limited space I am using my reloading table for an entertainment center. If you are lazy like me, it can be very convenient to just buy surplus. My problem is not taking the tv off the table so I can use my press it is storing my powder and bullets and dies, etc. in a storage unit and having to go drag out all of that stuff too. So for now I buy surplus rifle ammo and reload just 9mm. Yes, I'm so redneck that when I watch tv I have a Lee Classic cast press staring me in the face. I don't even notice it anymore.

Cacique500
March 7, 2006, 07:54 PM
I was believing it up to the point where he said:

Speaking of Wolf ammo; the Steel case will cause accellerated Extractor wear especially for ARs and Mini 14s.

:scrutiny:

Sorry dude, you just lost all credibility on that one.

neoncowboy
March 7, 2006, 08:02 PM
This is a verbatim reprint of a post in the ammo forum at m-14forum.com

The synopsis is that low-cost milsurp ammo is drying up.

Um, we know that already. Anyone try to get Portuguese, Argentinian or Hirtneburger .308 ammo recently? Guess what, there's not any...save maybe a few 200rd cans of Argentinian on links.

If recent trends are any indicator, it's true: milsurp will dry up entirely.

I didn't realize there was an import ban on milsurp ammo nor was I aware of 'sporting' packaging on all imported ammo.

If it's bogus info, the worst that happens is I wind up with 10,000rds of 7.62 NATO in the garage. If it's true, we're now paying the lowest prices we'll ever pay for 7.62 and 5.56 NATO.

Crosshair
March 7, 2006, 08:22 PM
Already stocked up on powder and 30 cal bullets. If anything, this is good reason to start reloading. Save up and buy a ton of powder at once to save on the Hazmat fee.

Scribe
March 8, 2006, 04:38 PM
I understand the Unwillingness to believe my information.

Please call SSI, DKG, Ammo To Go, KY Imports etc. yourselves if you don't belive what I am reporting. OH ! Please note that I included sources IN my posts.

Go read my Update on March 8.

GSB
March 8, 2006, 07:08 PM
Speaking of Wolf ammo; the Steel case will cause accellerated Extractor wear especially for ARs and Mini 14s.

Wolf 5.56 M193 is brass cased. Check 'em out on ammoman.com.

Jeff White
March 8, 2006, 08:04 PM
Scribe said;
1) The UN's Convention on the Reduction of Small Arms, Munitions, and other Military Surplus is aimed at STOPPING the Worldwide Trade in FIRST the Military then Civilian Arms Business. They have gotten even UNCLE SAMMY to Coorperate courtesy of Billy Bob Clinton and G.W. on DEMILLITARIZING Ammunition and stiffening IMPORT Regulations on SOME Small Arms. Other Nations are beginning to fall into line on compliance. This is why in part the 1989 Import Ban on Assualt Weapons remains. It is also why Parts for them are having Additional restrictions placed upon them. The Eventual Goal being the Disarming of EVERY Nation's Population.

If there really is such a treaty, it must exist in some form online. And it must be signed by the president and ratifed by the senate before it has force of law in the US.

I can't find reference to it anywhere. Why is that? Are you suggesting that the US Senate ratified this treaty in secret?

Did you ever stop and think that the reason some milsurp ammunition may be drying up is that the obsolete stocks may have already been sold off? 5.56x45mm has been NATO standard since 1985. That's 21 years. How much 7.62x51 did you think everyone had stockpiled?

The various wars and rumors of war and the American sport shooting community has certainly worked it's way through most of the stockpiles of WWII vintage ammunition in the 60 years since the war ended.

In case you hadn't noticed, the US dismantled most of our small arms ammunition production capacity when we spent the peace dividend. The current Global War on Terror has eaten through war reserves of 5.56x45 and 7.62x51. Contracts have been let that are tying up a lot of domestic commercial production facilities producing this ammunition for our military.

I think supply and demand has more to do with any shortages then some UN conspiracy.

Jeff

Templar223
March 9, 2006, 01:45 PM
This guy is posting this everywhere, including ar15.com.

I'm HIGHLY skeptical about his claims.

Some have speculated that it's a shill from one of the big sellers of surplus ammo trying to drum up some business.

John

cliffstanc
March 9, 2006, 03:12 PM
Call me a grammar snob ("you're a grammar snob"), but I always have a hard time believing people who Randomly capitialize Words. It Just Freaks me Out, man!

Seriously, I think all rational folks know that the supply of surplus ammo is, and always has been, finite. I've been hearing rumbles about shortages of NATO caliber surplus for years. So it's no surprise that the increased popularity and availability of inexpensive milsurp firearms in the U.S. would result in a drying up of the more obscure (to us) calibers they fire.

No offense to those in other countries, but the U.S. market for firearms and ammunition is so huge that we can eventually soak up practically any amount of surplus you throw at us. We're like a freakin' sponge. A very heavily armed sponge. :)

- Cliff

ID_shooting
March 9, 2006, 03:42 PM
Frankly, if Wolf and other ComBloc countries couldn't import 7.62x39 into the US, I imagine somone would step up production here. The market is too HUGE for there not to be a supplier. Somone stands to make a massive ammount of money making US-produced Wolf equivelent.

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