[Tman]

I'd like to know you're true and honest opinion on whether there will be renewel of the assualt weapons ban. I'm not asking what you're preferences are, but truly deep down in your gut whether you truly believe the ban will continue.

[jimbo]

Congress will kill this bill, IMHO.

[Boats]

I don't think it will continue. My views on this are extensively written on the L&P board.

Two factors to sum up:

1) The first one barely passed a demonrat controlled Congress.
2) Solid, pro-gun (GOA Grade "A") Republicans man the House Crime, Terrorism Subcommittee, where the new AWB ban will run aground hard and sink.

[JackC]

I think the brady bunch will win, hope that I'm wrong though.
Jack

[Ol' Badger]

Yes it will win. Look at the news lately? They will use that in their favure for sure.
Better gett'em while you can brothers. The days coming when they take them away.:(

[dustind]

I am not sure about the senate, doesn't look bad.

The house, however, looks great, write letters to make sure nothing gets out of comitte.

I am sending hand written letters to anyone who represents me to tell them how they must vote if they want mine.

Bush will sign it if it gets to his desk, don't let it get there.

The ban has been proven inefective, and the country has turned remarkable pro gun in the last ten years compared to before.



Yes it will win. Look at the news lately? They will use that in their favure for sure.

The news has reported it, but no one seems to care. I am not worried.

[Telperion]

I'll concur with Boats' reasonings and conclusions. Short of having Ron Paul on or chairing the House Judiciary committee, we could not ask for a more pro-gun committee roster than what we have.

[BOBE]

It takes no action for the bill to sunset. I believe that a Rep. controlled committe will not let it come up for a vote. I also believe Bush was counting on this when he made his statement on the issue.

[J Miller]

Since Bush is plainly in favor of the AWB continuing, congress will have more incentive to pass the necessary legislation. And I'm sure that more media sensational shootings will happen just before they pass the bills.

I'd love to see this idiotic law sunset, but I have watched federal anti gun laws be passed since the GCA68. And none have ever been repealed or sunsetted.
I'm not going to hold my breath.

[rick_reno]

If this unconstitutional law sunsets and is not reborn, it'll be a first. When was the last time our elected representatives restored rights taken away? That said, I believe bill has a very high probability of sunseting.

[Zundfolge]

This is kind of a trick question.

Regardless of what happens the AWB WILL sunset ... there is nothing to stop that.

However, I'd say the chances are better then 50/50 that a New AWB will be passed (which is what people generaly mean when they say the AWB won't sunset).

[geegee]

I think it will depend on what's on the President's agenda when the bill comes up. If he has more pressing issues and finds it more politically expedient to throw a sop to the Demo's, then it's a done deal. If he's in pretty good shape politically, and sees that this is a fight he could win, then we have a chance. I just find it very hard to believe the winds will shift enough in our favor to get enough Congresscritters to "gut up" for this fight. geegee

[SodaPop]

NO

[Hard Charger]

it all depends on gun owners and if they are willing to act BEFORE sept 14, 2004.

[Bainx]

Real Simple


Question: Have you EVER seen a law come off-the-books?

Answer: Nope.

[Telperion]

Question: Have you EVER seen a law come off-the-books?

Answer: Nope.

See the 18th and 21st amendments to the Constitution, maybe? :D

[Blain]

Of course it will be defeated. Do you really think the NWO will let this pass? Name one federal firearm law that has been recinded? Once they take them away, they're gone, folks, and no conventional means will restore them back to us.

[geekWithA.45]

But the wrangling will go on, and perhaps a new one will take it's place a few years down the road.

Vigilance, people!

[Skunkabilly]

I'm thinking even if it goes down, something will take its place.

[Carlos Cabeza]

So should I run out and buy a few black rifles then ..........?
:rolleyes: Note to HCI: The tools you wish to control are FUNCTIONALLY no different than many other common tools that are currently found in the law abiding populace.

[Kharn]

Blain:
Of course it will be defeated. Do you really think the NWO will let this pass? Name one federal firearm law that has been recinded? Once they take them away, they're gone, folks, and no conventional means will restore them back to us.
Do you have to sign the dealer's bound book when you buy ammo? You can thank the 1986 Firearm Owners Protection Act for removing that part of the 1968 Gun Control Act.

Kharn

[Sam Adams]

The law MUST sunset - the only question is whether there will be a replacement for it. I believe that there will be no replacement (until, that is, the Dems get control of the Congress and the WH - but that time looks very far off, thankfully). However, this belief is based on the premise that lots of us and lots of other people will write lots of letters to our reps. Of particular importance is the House, where people friendly to us control the key committee. If none of us do anything about it, then the Reps will conclude that we don't care, and our influence will go down the drain.

Bush was, IMHO, playing political games. He doesn't really want to sign it, but will do so if it is to his political advantage (i.e. if he thinks doing so will win him more votes than he will lose among people like us). The statement a couple of weeks ago was intended to elicit a response, to see which way the wind was blowing. In addition to the pro-gun forces, Bush wanted to get a response from the antis. If (as is sure to be the case) Feinstein & Schumer propose something much worse than the current law as a replacement, and a bunch of the Dems go along with it, then the Dems will be perceived to be exactly what they are - a bunch of gun-grabbing, power-hungry statists - and they will get their rear ends handed to them in '04.

I can't see this even getting to Bush's desk, as he doesn't want to touch it. The calculus is as follows: Those who are die-hard Dems or Republicans will not change their votes based on this issue, no matter what. I figure that about 20% of the population falls into each category. The great mass of remaining voters, making up perhaps 55% of all voters, couldn't care less - they have a dozen issues that are more important to them than guns, much less a narrow issue like the AWB. This leaves 2 groups, which together comprise about 5% of the voting population: pro-gunners whose vote Bush and the Reps will lose if a renewal is signed, and anti-gunners who will actually vote Republican based solely on this issue. I have to believe that the latter group is a vanishingly small number of people, perhaps 10,000 nationwide (people that anti-gun tend to be in the Dem camp anyway, and surely the Dem candidate will have more credibility on this issue for such voters). This leaves a large number of people like us, who will stay home or vote for someone other than Bush or the local Rep. I cannot imagine that Bush and his political people don't know this - and, if they do, I can't imagine them just throwing away all of those votes even if Bush has a large lead in the polls.

IMHO, it ain't gonna happen - but we can't sit on our tailbones and expect this result. We've got to work hard and constantly over the next 16 1/2 months to make sure that our liberties are restored!

[Tman]

So far, running as close as the last presidential election. I would be curious to see if any proposed replacement bill will try and go even further with gun control.

[Sean Smith]

Bush will approve maintaining "common sense gun control." :barf:

The most you can hope for from Republicans is things not getting worse. The most that you can hope from Democrats is that things won't get too much worse. Thus, eventually spitballs will be outlawed as assault wepons.

Small pistols: Gang-banger pocket rockets
Large pistols: Assault pistols
Large caliber pistols: Cop killers
Small caliber pistols: Assassination pistols
Accurate pistols: Sniper pistols
Shotguns: Street sweepers
Bolt-action rifles: Sniper rifles
Guns you can afford: Saturday night specials
Guns you can't afford: Drug lord status symbols

:banghead:

[Jim Diver]

It will continue either in it's present form or one close to it.


My predictions:
Bush will yield to the Brady Bunch. NRA will continue to back Bush regardless. Bush will lose the election.

I just hope I am wrong.

[Selfdfenz]

I've been nothing but upset and dissappointed about the direction of/about the AWB.
Given the Bush statement, not without some reason, sad to say.

But

I voted no...I think it will sunset.
S-

[adobewalls]

Just my opinion, Bush could be playing Machiavelli here.

By saying he supports the AWB and its extension, he places the ball firmly with Congress to take the "inaction" to let it die.

Legislators now have to decide which group they want to p' off the Anti's or the Pro's; instead of being able to work a compromise and counting on the president to veto it.

Then, if worst comes to worst and new AWB legislation is drafted to replace the '94 bill, then Bush has already set the negotiating ceiling at the current law. Like the previous poster Sam Adams pointed out, if (when) the Anti's make a play to become more restrictive then Bush is in a position to "withdraw" his support and threaten veto.

If this is the true political calculuus that has been made, then I will say its a gutsy, ballsy strategy. High risk, yes but with a downside that keeps things no worse than they are now.

What will happen? Who knows, but it does appear someone has thought about this and is way ahead of the opposition. Of course the best outcome is the bill dies a natural death and democrats don't take back the legislature and WH anytime soon.

Just my two cents, but it makes for interesting speculation.

[Pinned&Recessed]

I think it will sunset. We have the momentum.

I think a large part of the problem is semantics. We let the Anti's control the argument with words.

Sean Smith's list, slightly altered:

Small pistol/revolver: Pocket Rocket (Too Small)
Cheap pistol/revovler: Sat. Night Special (Too cheap)
Large, powerful pistol/revolver: Hand Cannon (Too Powerful)
Bolt-action/Single shot hunting rifle: Sniper rifle (Too Accurate)
Magazine-fed semi-auto: Assault Rifle (Too Military Looking)
Shotgun, pump or Semi-auto: Street Sweeper/Riot Gun (Too Deadly).

We need to win the battle of words before we can win the battle of firearms.