Most Likely SHTF Scenario and Your Payload?


August 13, 2006, 12:25 PM
This is just a generic hypothetical. Just for fun.

I apologize to anyone it may insult and I also apologize for this being a huge waste of time :uhoh:

What do you think the most likely SHTF scenario is?

Nuclear Holocaust? Massive EMP detonation? Resident Evil-like virus wipes out mankind? Invasion from a foreign country? Our economy slides so far south everyone goes crazy and we are forced to defend ourselves after we become a 3rd world nation? What? Get creative. Think like a fiction writer, people! ...or a Survivalist. You know the type...

And now the fun part-- when this happens, what firearms would you trust the most? That trusty AR-15 that you can't find replacement parts for? Your grandfather's revolver? Glocks? --Pick one rifle, one shotgun, and one handgun... and one more alternate handgun, rifle, or shotty just for fun. Thats 4 firearms, Gomer Pyle...

Anyone wanna take a bite?

Most likely Scenario: I'm going with the economy one just because I don't know-- that's why I posted it to begin with!

Mine is as follows:
Rifle: Springfield M1A .308
Shotgun: Remington 870 Marine Magnum 12ga.
Handgun: Kimber Gold Match 1911 .45
Alternate: Colt Python 4" .357 Magnum

The M1A .308 because its reliable I can also hunt for food with it, the 870 Marine because of durabily and reliability. I'd set it up for close quarters room clearing since the M1A would be too long, and the Gold Match 1911 because I know what I'm doing with it and its accurate as hell. The Python would be my alternate because I could also hunt with it as well as defend myself, plus its reliable. And handguns are easier to tote around when I've already got a big M1A and shotgun on me...


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Travis McGee
August 13, 2006, 12:37 PM
Anything in the primary milsurp calibers would be my first choice.

I think living in a survivable location (remote, food water etc) will be more important to survival than living near a city loaded out like Rambo.

another okie
August 13, 2006, 12:44 PM
National and personal debt continue to rise.
Cut off or huge increase in the price of foreign oil lead to inflation, which wipes out savings.
Crime goes out of control, system continues to function but doesn't do much.

It's sort of the late 1970s except more so.

Load out: Glock 17 on the person for unexpected attacks by groups.
AR-15 ready when traveling.
Shotgun by the bed at night and the front door during the day.
Not that different that what my load out is now.

August 13, 2006, 06:59 PM
I'm in agreement that the economy, combined with a drastic fossil fuel crisis, will be our undoing.

Rifle: PTR-91, the creme de le crem of SHTF rifles:evil:
Shotgun: Remington 870 Marine Magnum 12ga.
Handgun: Springfield XD 45 Tactical
Alternate: 20" AR-15 with ACOG

My main reason for the AR-15 is ammo resupply. I figure a lot of policemen and "Tacticool" people will be DOA and I'll snag their ammo. It's also much handier than a MBR for my wife, who will also be carrying a G17.

August 13, 2006, 07:07 PM
primary load out:
870 express

m59/66 yugo
can't imagine needing to replace the 870 :)

shtf scenerio: zombie alien invasion.

August 13, 2006, 07:16 PM
First off I will be going as fast as i can to get to or weekend home away from everyone!
I would say-
Handgun- G21 (stopping power plus capacity)
Rifle- Colt AR15 A3 (widely available ammo, accurate, capacity)
Shotgun- 870P (reliability and hunting afterwards)

Handgun- 70 series Colt Government Model (reliability and stopping power) or Sig Saur p220 or
G26 (common ammo and HIGH capacity)
Rifle- T/C Encore .308 (powerful, accurate, and hunting afterwards) or M1 Garand (relaibiltyand power)
Shotgun- Beretta 1201fp (fast and fun (I know :rolleyes: ))or
Rem 11-87 (reliability)

But if it really happened the answer would be as many guns and as much ammo as i can get in my truck.

August 13, 2006, 07:23 PM
I probably would not carry 4 weapons. Too much to handle if and when you are on foot. My sig or a glock on hip, plus either my AR or 870HD. Depends on what happens when and where.

When I hear SHTF I think about having to move. Terrorist attack or what not is a very fast and violent act. Not ongoing-the after affects, yes, the attack itself is not. After it happens being armed will do no good. Post incident survival is more important.
Now, widespread attacks or invasions or an event that throws the country back into the stoneage (a la LightsOut) is a completely different story.

August 13, 2006, 07:54 PM
Daily load out:

SIG 226R in .40 cal. (duty sidearm)
Mossberg 590A with tac sling (duty shotgun)
AR15 HBAR with telescoping stock and single point sling (duty rifle)
SA M1A w/ARMS 18 mount and Leupold 4x scope (precision rifle)
S&W Model 640 BUG

These are part of the duty gear I carry in case there's a call out at the PD. I carry spare mags and ammo for each, along with a 72 hour kit. The most likely scenario would be economic collapse and civil unrest. We have plans in place to rotate shifts protecting hospitals and medical facilities in town in case of mass shutdown of utilities and whatnot. I also have a plan for my wife to stay with friends, or more likely, for those friends to come stay with her because we are better armed and supplied. Car pool plans are also in place should fuel costs continue to rise.

I don't know about the rest of you guys on this board, but it's beginning to feel like we're already in a slow-motion SHTF scenario in this country, with occasional localized crises. :uhoh:

I'm working to get completely out of debt ASAP while continuing to maintain a state of readiness vis a vis supplies, financial resources and strategic plans. Is it just me? :confused:

evan price
August 13, 2006, 08:14 PM
Payload: S-4 rocket, 3 MIRV's, TN-35 warheads, probable yield in the 20kT range.

The Guy
August 13, 2006, 08:25 PM
M1a, Leupold 4x10, 50mm objective. For when I need to reach out and touch somebody. Can still use the open sights for work out to 500 yards if nessisary. My main battle rifle.

Trade ya a shoty for another rifle. Robinson XCR in .223 AND 7.62x39. Same rifle, 2 calibers, for close encounter work, or for a freind, as buddy system will help keep me alive. Would be "tacticool" tricked out (you know, mall ninja stuff).

Ruger 10-22, or other semi-auto .22 lr for hunting small game, varmit controll (big-n-small types, shot placement, shot placement, shot placement!)

And our final winner, a .45 acp GLOCK:eek: . Yes, I LOVE 1911's, but...Never have problems with my Glocks. I can go happily either way on this one though, so no flame jobs please!:neener:

In the coming Zombie war (or what ever your own SHTF senario is), the main survival tactic is not living near pop centers, having a solid, hidden, solar powered, and defenseable base is numero uno. How anyone expects to make it out of said population centers are beyond me.

Also, I would rather have 1 rifle and 3 armed buddies/family members than 4 firearms. I can only shoot one at a time with any sort of chance of hitting someone, but if there were 4 of us, that is one heck of alot more bullets going at the baddies, whom ever they may be!

August 13, 2006, 08:33 PM
I'm not so convinced that your post is paranoia. In fact, it certainly passes through my mind (probably from seeing it on CNN, Fox, etc) not entirely infrequently. I literally hope and pray it never comes to that, but the obvious fact is, we (collectively) have enemies around the world who would LOVE to push us there.


August 13, 2006, 08:34 PM
We're buggin in. Everybody talks about buggin out, but how many have given any thought to how & where ?

I have relatives on both sides of my house and we're backed up to 11 acres with a pond. Everybody's armed, including Grandpa & the kid.

Keep moving.:)

August 13, 2006, 08:37 PM
The only SHTF scenerio I can reasonably see happening is a home invasion, and that is why my 870 is loaded and nearby. Not that I wouldn't be ready for some paranoid scenerio away from home, I do have a SKS in my trunk, and 2 seriously good respirators since I am an asbestos remover, the thing is I just don't see that type of shtf thing happening.

August 13, 2006, 08:49 PM
Well, sour economy is the most likely scenario.

Should the need arise to bug out quickly, I have a main plan and several back-up plans for HOW and WHERE to bug out.

My firearms would be the only ones I have anymore-

Arm the wife with her choice of Glock 30 or Kahr PM40 (She likes the Glock, but the Kahr DOES fit her hand better.) I'll take whatever she doesn't want.

Police model 870 and two Ishapore SMLE's in .308 with all the spare ammo I can lug go in the jeep with the B.O.B.

It would be nice to have a short-barreled shotgun for close work out of a vehicle, should the need arise. Maybe like one of those Serbu Shorty's with a load of heavy birdshot or light buckshot.

Brian Williams
August 13, 2006, 08:52 PM
I will be more Oldtimer thatn most and go with my Marlin leverguns and some S&W 357s
S&W 65 4" and 13 3"
marlin 1894C in 357 and 39 Mountie in 22lr.

August 13, 2006, 09:16 PM
I think the oil states will put the squeeze on us (we are dirty infidels right) and our system will break down over time (gas, food, medicine, basic supply riots). I plan to bug in because I live in rural area. I have access to wood, game, gardens, water, and my stockpile:evil: . Many of my coworkers (law enforcement) talk about this type of scenerio. We all believe this could easily happen and if you live/stay in the city you are screwed. The city I work in has alot of gang and drug violence. What will the crackheads do if they can't get their fix with food being a second priority. The city is also home for a bunch of help me , the government will save us, and I have a right to social service types. Will they be prepared (I think not) or will they come after what you have (Help me I need my handout). The police will do what they can but New Orleans shows you how far that will go. If it gets bad enough do you think the police are going to hang around (forget our family's) and help without outside aid (no military no aid). If the whole country is in the same boat you had better be ready because you are on your own. 223, 308, 30/06, 30/30, .303, 7.62+39, 50 cal (black powder) .12, .20, 45, 40S&W, 9mm, .357, .38, .22lr, and Easton (compound bow) is spoken where I live at.:D

August 13, 2006, 09:19 PM
One's 'bugging out payload' is more of a TEOTWAWKI matter.

If your locality's sh!* has hit the fan, you'll probably not get to far before you reach an area that retains it normalcy, law & order. You'd look like a bit of a dolt stolling into town with your loadbearing gear, a pistol on your belt, a battle rifle, pushing a tactical wheelbarrow. That's IF you can get out.

Being prepared to 'get gone' is something to think about, but I'm a little more realistic than that... A more likely situation is that I'll be holed up at home with canned food, jugged water, first aid, crank radio, batteries, lights, medication..... and naturally a few guns, and crap load of ammo. :)

August 13, 2006, 09:22 PM
me and my kids are heading to my parents place, they got a lot of land next to a lake with few people around,

plus most of my supplies are already stored there and its only a 10 minute drive away, and is a lot easier to defend then my house.

Ala Dan
August 13, 2006, 09:28 PM
Rifle: right now, a 16" barrel Colt M4A3 .223
Shotgun: Remington 12 gague 870 Marine Magnum
Handgun: Springfield XD- .45ACP 4" service model with a Streamlight TLR-1

August 13, 2006, 09:52 PM
MOST likely SHTF? I hear my alarm system go off in the middle of the night.
Load out: CZ-75B and Surefire.

Don't think the FAL will do me much good between my bed and the door to the hall.

Nathan Williams
August 13, 2006, 10:43 PM
Well I can see economic collapse, pushed bye fuel rationing. Think about this trucking is the backbone of our economy, and way of life. If the pumps dry out the trucks stop rolling and food, medical supplies, and other needfull things stop showing up at our stores. People stop going to work. Banks go belly up in a few weeks, everything you have in the bank on paper GONE :what: ! I would bug in bye retreating to my parents farm, most of my family is in that area and I think we could all make due just fine. As for guns the most important to have when you make it out of town is a good hunting rifle. So for my other weapon it would be the remington 700. The shotgun (which would also be useful for food) would be a 870 3 1/2" magnum, for people, I would be tempted to say G21, but for purposes of ammo availability my choice would be the G22 (all LEO's carry this around here). As for the rifle simple choice there a M4 carbine. You see what I did here with all 4 are in the 4 most common caliber/gauge. 308,223,40,12ga.

August 13, 2006, 11:01 PM
I think our worst case situation will be more like what Argentina is seeing, and we'll likely be sharing that fate with the world if it comes to that--that is, a global depression. If it degenerates further, it may be vaguely simliar to what happened in Yugoslavia.

I have liked something in 308 for the reasons mentioned earlier, capable as a manstopper or a deer taker, but last season I saw 6 deer taken on the lease I hunt (two with a AR-15, one with an AK variant, one with a G3 type, and the final two with a bolt 30.06) and am open to a wider variety as legitimate dual purpose long guns.

Better off having a good plan to acquire 'taters than 3k of ammo and an extra 40 pounds around the middle. :)

August 13, 2006, 11:04 PM
Guns, guns, guns. :banghead:

Any of you guys loaded with 60 lbs of guns and ammo got an off shore bank account? First aid skills? Passport? Friends in other countries that would take in a refugee? Basic mechanic skills to keep the heap running? How 'bout off road driving skills? Got a pair of boots/shoes you could walk 10 miles in without a blister? 30 miles? Guns and ammo are not the only answer to the question and often aren't even most of the answer.

August 14, 2006, 12:16 AM
I agree that it is very likely the economy crashing due outrageous fuel prices could lead to a SHTF situation. I have the feeling if Iran gets the nuke, we will see a limited strike (terrorist attack) which will knock out our electrical system. Now we are in deep sh**.

I envy those of you who live or have access to rural areas. I wish I had the financial means to purchase small place with a bunch of land in a rural area. Being in Massachusetts there is not a lot of rural area to be had and I cannot afford to purchase a "getaway" in VT., NH., or Maine. I guess I'll go down fighting! :-(

August 14, 2006, 03:56 AM
Psssst, hso - this is a gun website, remember? ;)

August 14, 2006, 07:56 AM
for me
Rifle: mak-90
sidearm: Glock 19
Assaukt pack: extra mags and ammo for all the weapons.
ammo: 210 basic load on person and more in pack for ak
46 rds for glock 3-15rd mags +1

my wife
Rifle: Bushmaster m4a3 with the trimmings
Sidearm: Kahr k-40 he only pistol i have that she likes.
ammo: m16 mags x7 , 2 6rd mags +1 for the kahr.

My brother
shotgun: Remington 870 HD with all the trimmings
sidearm: glock 19
ammo: as much as he can stuff in his pockets for the shotgun. 3-5 mags for the glock.

My Dad
Rifle: Bushmaster m4a3 with a few trimmings as well.
sidearm: glock 17
ammo: 7 mags for the m4, and 3-5 for glock.

August 14, 2006, 06:12 PM
HSO, I understand what you are saying.

August 14, 2006, 08:05 PM
I don't think that oil alone will be the cause. Yes, we are addicted, BUT we also have more means to adapt if we were forced to. Other nations can't even do that. I think we would emerge from it with a certain ammount of discomfort, inconvenience, and forced lifestyle change, while other nations would be devastated. MORE LIKELY, is the idea that we would SURVIVE such a crisis, and this would make us even more a target for the rest of the world.

A wise man once explained to me that Americans are for the most part, lazy and complacent. BUT, WHEN WE START GOING HUNGRY FOR NO GOOD REASON, we will remember who we are.

I honestly think the most immediate crisis to plan for is something like Katrina. A localized, short-term disaster. 72 hours worth of supplies would have helped those people out a lot. They didn't need enough ammo to fight a war, just enough to keep the bad guys away from them.

I kind of break it down into two general categories. Digging in, and bugging out. If you are digging in, you will need enough supplies to hold you over until the crisis passes. You have the luxury of heavier weapons and more food/cooking options. If you are bugging out, on the other hand, you need to be prepared to move from a bad place to a better place. Probably on foot. Maybe a LONG way. This means you should have personalized, comprehensive gear that you can carry with a good supply of food. (I know I'll get some jeers for this, but I am a mormon, and there is a running theory that we will be forced to move the HQ of the church from Salt Lake City to somewhere in the midwest. It's not very specific, and I usually scoff at people who pretend to know a lot about this, but I do have it in my head, walking halfway across the country for one reason or another.) The nation might be split in half, like in Red Dawn, when America was invaded specifically to capture the agricultural land, and you might have to escape from an occupied zone to a friendly zone. I think in terms of moving my family, on foot, more than 1000 miles.

I'm sure if I was walking a long way, I would LIKE to have something in .308, but I would probably keep the M-4 for weight considerations. (I had an M1A, I think I would rather get an AR-10 than another M1A. Maybe I'll get around to a SOCOM along the way.) It would probably be a good idea to keep an SKS and or an AK around, just because that round is the most plentiful in the world, and if we are invaded by any force large enough to overwhelm us, some of them will be using this round, this is more likely than any other round. These rifles are inexpensive enough, ANYONE can afford to buy an SKS to have JUST IN CASE, even if they never use it for anything else. Buy it packed in cosmoline, and just keep it.

My wife or one of my younger boys could use my M-1 carbine, but if I plan on using that one, I better stock up on the ammo now. Sellier & Bellot sell bulk 00 buck, one should have a few cases of that, I suppose there would be plenty of 9mm to be had, but I think I would pick up one of those that had been dropped before I run out of .45 for my Kimber. As for how MUCH ammo, use your brain, consider what you really NEED and not what feels cool. Meaning, I love my .45, but it is a last-ditch defensive weapon, and it's not putting any food on the table. Put the emphasis on your MOST EFFECTIVE weapons. If I was digging in, I would keep a lot more. If I was bugging out, I would be limited by weight, and forced to prioritize my shots.

I would want to hunt to live as I went, but there could be some kind of envronmental catastrophe that makes game very scarce. The bulk of the weight should probably be MRE entrees. This is the highest-calory, most shelf-stable item I can think of.

Burying a cache in case TSHTF is a whole other thread.

August 14, 2006, 09:13 PM
I think there's a lot of folks who say they are going to bug in event of SHTF that haven't thought things through.

If it's a national economic collapse, what makes you think Illinois or Missouri is going to be more hospitable to you than your own hometown? How are you going to bug 500 miles? Expect to be the only people on the road, hmm? Seems a lot of folks would be better off staying in their local community.

And if you live in Chicago or similar big city, expect the major arteries to be clogged as everyone else has the same bright idea. Add in breakdowns from poor folk driving clap-trap cars that break down / run out of gas within the first 25-50 miles and you're now bugged onto a highway with nowhere to go. Trapped on I-95. Just lovely.

IMHO, after looking like the fool on Y2K, I don't think there is a likely SHTF scenario. Maybe something regional here like a bad earthquake or maybe some bird flu action - but even that is a l-o-n-g shot. The August 22 pronouncement by that kook in Iran is about as close to a possible SHTF we're likely to face - and that's about as likely to amount to a hill of beans as we are to see bigfoot in our lives. In either event, I'm staying close to home or at one of a few rally locations nearby. Short of a chemical release from the Newport Army Chemical Storage Depot or a radioactive release from Clinton Nuclear Power plant, I can't imagine the need to flee my county.

If something unlikely happens, I'll bring a whole compliment of stuff that I fish out of the bottom of the lake. Damn shame I lost all that stuff in that tragic boating accident. Sure hope they aren't too rusty!


Travis McGee
August 14, 2006, 09:18 PM
Great thread! But out vs dig in, weapons, transportation, mob psychology during an exodus....

Just thinking these scenarios through and laying away some preps puts one far ahead of 95% of the sheeple.

the naked prophet
August 14, 2006, 09:41 PM
By far the most likely scenarios are the least severe and require the least preparation, and therefore provide the most benefit for which we can prepare: a home invasion. I think this has been covered plenty in other threads.

Next likely is a local event which affects an entire city, such as a large thunderstorm similar to or larger than the one that knocked out the power in St. Louis for over a week. It wouldn't have needed to be much bigger before serious problems would have started happening. This is where it helps to have a week or two worth of food, fuel, batteries, water, etc. Also more likely to need guns to fight off those who are used to getting what they want without working, and didn't store up for the future. This could also include riots, a small localized terrorist attack (a few bombs, etc.) or other events which could affect your city and not much else. Obviously it would be best to get out of town, but for example the LA riots closed off several streets, and the recent storm in St. Louis knocked out the electricity to many gas stations - if you didn't have enough gas to get far enough out of town that the gas pumps were working... you were stuck (like my mother-in-law).

Strategy for something like this is to bug in to your home, and wait for things to settle down - assuming you have a couple weeks food, water, and supplies. My mother-in-law came to stay with us for a week.

Even less likely than that, is the regional event. America's most powerful geological fault has been silent for too long - the New Madrid Fault is overdue for "The Big One." The last big earthquake on this fault rang church bells in Massachussets, but luckily there were very few people living nearby at the time. Nowadays, it would disrupt power, water, and transportation in a large radius, probably causing significant damage in St. Louis, Springfield, etc. And I'm right in the middle of all that. You may not be able to get out of town if there are raised highways on your way out. Railways that deliver coal to power plants may be destroyed and most big power plants like St. Louis and KC only keep a few hours supply on hand! The water mains in many places are still made of clay (!!!) and others are aging. So you're looking at no power, no water, and no transportation in just a few minutes over an area nearly the size of Texas, covering nine states. Keep in mind that California geology mitigates earthquakes very well, while Mississippi valley geology makes widespread damage more likely.

For something like this, you'd better have six months of water, food, toilet paper, medical supplies, and enough guns to fight off hungry criminals for six months or longer. You may not be able to go anywhere, nearby rivers may have been diverted or subsumed so you can't count on your water filter helping you much. If you can get to an unaffected area, you should probably move.

Redneck with a 40
August 15, 2006, 01:49 AM
I would agree with the economy/energy crisis being our undoing, or a terrorist detonating a dirty nuke in a major city. As far as my weapons of choice, here they are:

Rifle-My SKS with 20 stripper clips of 7.62, plus another duffle bag
full of ammo.:D

Shotgun-My Mossberg 500 12 gauge with at least 250 buckshot

Handgun-My Springfield XD40 with 500 rounds of 155 grain hollowpoint.

Alternate handgun-My Taurus Tracker 357 magnum, 500 rounds minimum.

I live out in the country, so if the SHTF, I'm staying put and hoping that I thought ahead enough to stockpile food, medicine, water, and other supplies. If a band of thugs tried to invade this place, they would be dealt with severely.:D

Don't Tread On Me
August 15, 2006, 02:46 AM
I have 2 rifles that cover all the scenarios I can think of that are most likely to happen.

1] Home invasion. This is a criminal situation. This is a situation where they have the element of surprise. I have little to no time.

Saiga 7.62x39.

Simple, robust, reliable and powerful. Cartridge is useful for home defense - can easily penetrate interior walls as well as cabinets, furniture and other obstacles between the lead I'm launching and the scumbag(s) waiting to receive it. I am 100% the opposite of all the THR advocates of lesser-penetrating ammo. My motto is - over penetration is an asset, not a liability.

No fancy lights, no fancy reddots. No tactical-ninja garbage. Nothing to get in the way. Nothing to slow you down in your time to engagement. 1 simple operation - charge it via charging handle and rock n' roll. That's it. Point and shoot. Home defense distances are short, real short unless you're Bill Gates. No need for optics. No need for sights. Situation will largely be a display of quick and blinding violence. Reality is, you'll be sighting the weapon like a shotgun and pulling the trigger.

Here's a home invasion scenario that really happened and was discussed here on THR a while back. Note that that a lot of the shooting occured when there was a victim(s) in one room with the invader in a hallway or other room and shooting taking place through a door.

It is critical to find a cartridge that will go through **at least** one door and still have enough juice left to take out the invader who is hell bent on killing you.

2] Riots, gang wars, looting. Post-natural disaster.

Colt 6520 (16" superlight) w/ Aimpoint (4moa, 50,000hr battery life) and BUIS - 6 USGI magazines loaded with 75gr Hornady TAP (210 rds total). Side arm - Springfield XD Tactical, 9mm, loaded with 115gr +p+ Ranger, 16 + 1.

In these situations, there's some warning - sometimes very little, sometimes days or weeks worth. Either way, there's enough time to get the rifle, strap on your ammo, turn on your red dot and get ready.

AR-15 is fast to shoot, quick to reload and is accurate. In this scenario, shots greater than 50 yards may be possible depending if the rioting mob is into Molotovs or is armed with firearms. If they have firearms, they are fair game at any range. The key here is speed in engagement, speed in reloading. Red dot rules here for fast engagement. You may have 5-7 thugs trying to burn your house down from all directions. You must be able to engage 360 degrees, rapid fire and from distances that might be in your face to 100 yards out or more. So a 0-200 yard platform is ideal. Move and shoot. Rifle should be short, light and ergonomic. Thugs will be moving and moving fast.

Having an optic that is night-capable is essential as you won't be going to bed, but be on guard and alert.

For a post-natural disaster, this serves well. Lightweight, and can engage targets out to 200 yards no problem if you need to leave your home to search for food/water/fuel. Also works well if you need to evacuate the area by foot if the disaster is substantial.

If you choose to stay home and defend it - will work well against any looters or thugs, in close or far away. Lightweight is ideal as you can keep it on your body for the duration without getting tired.

So bug in, or bug out - you're good to go. Night/day - good to go. Short duration, long duration - good to go.


For revolutions, uprisings, civil wars etc...well, that all depends on what your strategy is - defensive/offensive. IE, are you going to stay out of the way and just protect your butt, or are you going to be a participant? If a participant, in what role? Will you go around and assassinate political opponents or others who you deem to be on "the other side" or aiding or assisting the other side's movement?...or join up with gangs/militias etc..and participate in raids, ambushes or other activities?

There's other situations, like post-nuclear war. Massive outbreak of disease. Super-natural disaster like meteor strike etc....

These situations are above and beyond just firearms choices. In these situations, you are going to have to weigh them by how long their effects will last. If it is years or decades, then your firearm strategy must be compatible with that. This gets more into survivalism. You have to gauge how society will react to it, and for how long. Outbreak of disease could be pure and total chaos where it will be everyone out for themselves. This could be really bad. Not that nuclear war, meteor strike or anything else couldn't result in people defaulting into is the duration of chaos that is critical. That effects the choice of rifle, cartridge etc..

The Guy
August 15, 2006, 02:59 AM
You know, in these situations, how will we know each other from the bad guys. I mean, you look out your window and see a couple of guys with various weapons, one black, one white and one mexican (no this is not the begining of a joke) moving down the street weapons in hand.

Do you shoot first, and do you shoot to kill, or a warning shot to understand intentions?

Do you wait them out to see if they pass by, or does that give them the chance to get close in before they try to kill you?

If you are the one walking down the street, and a bullet hits the concrete in front of you, is it an itchy trigger finger, a plain miss, or is someone trying to kill you?

This is all complicated more in a larger city, and less in the open country, but should be thought about.

I know for sure that I don't want to get in a firefight with one of you all, and I hope all of you feel the same about me, but hey, how will we know.

P.S. Maybe we all need THR hats and armbands or something!:D

August 15, 2006, 05:22 AM
Thinking about the economic collapse and bugging out, we've already experienced this once in our country. I'm talking about the Dust Bowl, the Depression, and the Okies and Arkies who bugged out to California in search of better lives. I have relatives living now who moved to California in the 30's and 40's. One great aunt in particular now alternates between her home here and her home in California. Most of her family from California has now moved back to Arkansas, seeking more freedom and less crime.

That said, it seems like a migration *is* going on. I'd be very interested to see a complete study of the demographics and direction of this migration. Anybody aware of such a study?

August 15, 2006, 09:53 AM
Scenerio: "The balloon drops"

Rifle: AR15 with silenced .22lr upper receiver and supersonic ammo
Pistol: Silenced Ruger 22
Shotgun: don't need one with ARs.
Alternate weapon: 2nd AR15 w/ silenced 22lr

Weapons carried in state of the art Tactical Wheelbarrow.

August 15, 2006, 11:42 AM
What if SHTF...and we get into a situation where you can not have your guns...see New Orelens Superdome. What then? Would you turn around and go back to where you were or continue on? I know I would not give up my firearms with out a fight. Just food for thought.

Anyway. My senerio is a dirty bomb attack of some sort that forces you to evac from your current home.

1. I would take my p226 9mm. This would be my carry piece. Good close quarter gun.
2. I would take my mossy 500 12 gague. Good for close quarter and I could hunt with it.
3. I would take my rem 700 30-06. Good long range gun and could hunt with it.
4. I would take my CZ 75 d pcr. Another 9mm so we could keep ammo down to one pistol round. Wife also could use with out much problem.

Don't Tread On Me
August 15, 2006, 02:39 PM
What if SHTF...and we get into a situation where you can not have your guns...see New Orelens Superdome. What then? Would you turn around and go back to where you were or continue on? I know I would not give up my firearms with out a fight. Just food for thought.

Why would you voluntarily enter a death camp like the Superdome? That was a last minute disaster set up for those who didn't even realize a storm was coming until 1hr before it hit. For them, the heinousness of the Superdome was marginally better than facing the Cat 5 weather outside.

As for shelters and other things...I would never go to one of those. They prohibit firearms. That's a disarmament zone. Not only do they disarm you, but then they offer no protection for you. You're basically helpless in a building/camp. To make matters worse, they might force you to stay. If you leave, you might not be able to get back to your home as the police have sealed off sections of town. That's right. You won't be able to even go back to your own privately owned property because the city owns the street that gets you there!

Best bet is to not live in a flood zone and have a home with cinderblock construction, and then have your home hurricane proofed as much as possible. That means window protection and reinforcing the roof. I'd rather stay on my destroyed property than be herded like sheep by the "gubmint"...

If the confiscators come like they did in New Orleans, well...I don't know. You'll have some tough choices to make. Best thing is to be prepared in advance. That means not keeping all your eggs in one basket if you know what I mean. Let them leave after confiscating your Jennings or Hipoint. Then go dig up your AK or AR. Unless you want to put your foot down in the face of tyranny and open fire. Be prepared to engage in a gun battle with multiple police officers backed by the National Guard. Unlike what the apologists say, they aren't there just for show. Odds are against you, but at least you'll make their confiscation mission very distasteful. Better yet, if you're the revolutionary type...find other locals as crazy (or brave depending on perspective) as you and pre-plan ambushes. Just like the men at Concord and Lexington. Attack them on their route. Or like Hezbollah that prepared the terrain in advance hiding weapon caches in key locations. Only problem is, after a storm, unless you're very well prepared, you'll want to be more interested in finding water/food and electricity than having it out with the JBT's. Unfortunately, the political climate in our society will not view you actions as positively as it did for the men in Massachusetts. You'll be nothing more than a criminal terrorist thug and they'll send every asset they have to hunt you down and make an example of you.

There's no reason to die or take on the government during a post-hurricane scenario. In the end, the government failed by becoming the badguy. They were defeated in court, they were defeated in the battle for public opinion. Most states are passing laws against firearm confiscations. Not that it will actually STOP them in the future, but at least there's a law you can directly cite (besides the 2nd Amendment which is ignored). The tyrants in New Orleans did worse for their cause than good. Instead of confiscating all the arms and creating a gun-free utopia, they've instead generated a massive demand for more guns. They've also taught every single citizen in the South East what the government is capable of doing and how they'll do it. People now own more guns, and people now know what to expect of their government. Future confiscations will be significantly more difficult because citizens will be more beligerent and they will also hide many arms. Who knows, maybe even a few will resist.

PS... +1 to the tactical wheelbarrow...the legacy of gunkid lives on!

August 15, 2006, 04:23 PM
Most likely scenario in my part of the counry is a tornado.

Bottled Water, Insulin for my son, and toilet paper comes before a gun. I don't live on either coast or a big city, so I will see more helpers than looters.

My most likely gun to carry would be my Makarov, because I have a great holster for it, and then my Ruger Blackhawk .357 in stainless steel, because it shines real nice in the moonlight. In my opinion, big shiny guns are better deterrents because they can be seen at a distance. I know this from experience.;)

If you know people trouble is coming, then ditch the handguns and get a 12 gauge, but again, I think we would have more saints than sinners.

August 15, 2006, 06:04 PM
SHTF Scenario 1: Go home. Now.
Don't know, or care, why this would happen ... but I spend a lot of time not at home, and my prime scenario is needing to get home without driving. Walking the 16+ miles home from work is no biggie, but with whatever social crash causing me to do so it might take a couple days under uncooperative circumstances.
Payload: standard 72-hour bugout bag featuring change of clothes, 2 MREs, minimal shelter, first aid stuff, misc small camping gear, and Glock 26 with 40 rounds in 3 magazines. May add silencer, and/or SBR in discreete case.

SHTF Scenario 2: Stay home, long time.
Social meltdown means nobody is going anywhere for a while. Wait for Darwin to sift 'em out. No electricity, gasoline, natural gas, and/or groceries for a while. Better have food & heat to spare for months. Home is in single-entrance mid-to-upscale development with (for now) countryish buffer zone near lake. Hunker down until things settle. Don't expect a big fight, but quietly prepared and able to show (and use) force to establish peace.
Payload: A full pantry (in constant rotation) augmented with a big ol' sack of rice, woodburning fireplace, sufficient woods in backyard (fuel), lake (water) within walking distance, water filters, stock Colt 6933 AR15 with suppressor, scout rifle in .308, 2 9mm Glocks, and a few other guns all with a thousand or so rounds on hand.

SHTF Scenario 3: No home. Now what?
Northeastern Georgia gets pretty much wiped out. No home to bug out/in to. No warning? unlikely, but have BOB handy to get me started. Some warning? Throw suitable stuff in car and head north to homestead-lifestyle family; 1000 mile drive can be done in 1 day, so long as I can get gas & keep going - not a lot of geographic bottlenecks around here.
Payload: what camping gear, food & guns can be thrown into car in time.

SHTF Scenario 4: Long day's journey into night.
Society takes Argentina's lead, with gradual and total economic collapse. Entire middle class heads for poverty. Bills & taxes still need paying, so you keep working - somehow. Probably the worst, most likely, and least sexy SHTF scenario. Fiat currency fails, debts (from your credit card to $10T national debt) are called in, majority of jobs fold because they're really not needed. Great Depression II.
Payload: no debt, self-sufficient homestead. My parents achieved this, I hope to. Guns (this isTHR) feature a few quality guns in assorted military calibers, a couple cases of 1-3 cheap but reliable guns (SKS etc.) to distribute as needed, and 1000+ rounds each.

Not every payload listed above is exactly what I have, but is what I want.
This is an oddly sobering thread for someone who has pondered survival for years. Need to categorize & write about some of this stuff to help refocus. The blog on Argentina's SHTF was helpful.

August 15, 2006, 06:16 PM
No, you guys are blind! Those ferocious squirrels mentioned in an earlier post will be the undoing! Beware...a Barrett .50BMG will be just fine

August 15, 2006, 06:39 PM
History reveals that the 1918-1919 flu pandemic killed over 50 million people worldwide. We ARE on the cusp of another pandemic NOW. When the bird flu, H5N1 evolves into a virus capable of human-to-human transmission, S could very easily HTF.

IMO, however, it could only be a combination of the flu pandemic, global tensions, and economic collapse to bring widespread chaos into the realm of reality. Sure, terrorist attacks are possible, but I'm in SLC, Utah and I doubt anyone is going to target Utah.

Also, I'm operating under the opinion that the USA's stockpile of nuclear weapons + a republican president are going to prevent anyone from being stupid enough to use WMD against us.

BUT, If I must bug out in a hurry for whatever reason, I will go to my cabin with the following:

1. RRA AR-15 w/ 6 mags + 1000 rounds
2. XD .40 tactical w/ 4 mags + 500 rounds
3. Rem. 870 w/ 300 rounds
4. DPMS Long-Range AR-10 w/ 500 rounds

+ 2 duffels with my extensive collection of personal camping gear and warm clothes.

I have a very reliable Jeep 4x4 and 3 possible routes off of major highways to the cabin pre-planned.

The cabin is already fully stocked with most of the ammo, food, first aid (including anti viral meds), water, backup water, clothes, fuel, off the grid power, etc. etc. It's in a very secure location, with plenty of game to hunt, and crops nearby.

Guns and ammo aside, I will also add that there are probably lots of people on this thread that don't have the survival skills, appropriate type of camping gear, or physical ability to survive more than 1 week in the wilderness.

August 15, 2006, 09:07 PM
SHTF scenarios, like Katrina, will happen again. It could be a matter of natural disaster, or terrorist activities (remember, they are ACTIVELY trying to kill Americans). In any case, I don't see the Chinese marching down the streets, and certainly not the Iranians.

My only fear is opportunists, and predators. And I am talking about men! Look at WTO in Seattle! The so called 'anarchists' that beat people, and damaged property, are really just young, opportunistic thugs who found a lawless situation where they could get away with crime. Katrina is obviouly another scenario.

In light of this, I just want to deter such activity with big, Scary guns. I certainly don't want to kill anyone! I just want to keep the threat alive! (a modified, paraphrase from Lex Luther).

Do you remember the LA riots? Rememeber the Korean shop owners loading their revolvers in front of their stores? Remeber the Men on the roof tops with SKS rifles? Pretty much the only buildings in Watts that were untouched were the Korean, owned stores. In light of this, here are my tools of choice for "peace thru deterence:"

1)AK 47
2)870 Marine
3)Smith & Wesson .44

Alternate- SKS

Just my 2 cents. :cool:

August 15, 2006, 09:49 PM
I live on the outskirts of a fairly small (about 20,000 people, all together) town in northern Mississippi. It's pretty remote (~70 miles from Memphis) and about half the population is college students. A SHTF scenario would be just about anything where the trucks with food and gasoline stop coming, and the lights go dark. It'd probably be about a week before most people run out of food.

What scares me is that just about everybody around here owns at least one deer rifle. If someone wants to kill you, they can and they will. AR-15s and Glocks won't do you a lick of good out here.

Right now I'm woefully unprepared. A month worth of food. 30 gallons of gasoline. No water purification equipment. I really need to sit down and figure out exactly what I'd need. But I'll offer this advice: sandbags. If you have to seek cover in your home, the walls might as well be made of paper.

August 17, 2006, 04:40 PM
These are classic. Thanks, everyone! I need to write a book about this or something...


August 23, 2006, 07:39 AM
So wont bore you with the details of those applicable tools. I'll just give ya the LONG, and the SHORT of it.....for kicks

Serbu SuperShorty for those imtimate occassions
and Serbu BFG .50 BMG for those LONG distance relationships.....Minivan by day Battleship by night:what: ;) :D .

Bugging IN for sure....prep'ed accordingly end of 04 after the storms and havent looked back since ALL Food, water, medical, power etc. issues have been addressed and I sleep well knowing so :-)

August 23, 2006, 09:21 AM
These threads were why NineSeven started Near Death Experiments. ;)

That said, I'll play:

Bug In: 870 stays on my person, M1911 stays on my person, SKS close at hand.

Bug out to ORP: Load up SUV for the short trek to ORP, all guns come with. Set up there.

Bug out Permanantly: Similar to first Bug out, different loadout. Either way M1911 on my hip, others depends on situation, but the SKS's and shotguns come with, and at least one Mosin.

August 23, 2006, 10:51 AM
A local S@!F situation would be another Katrina, blizzard, w/e that totally disrupts life for an affected area, help would come in a few days (3 days to a week) so if your good for 2 weeks, your good.

It is far more likely that I would have to Bug Out for a situation like this than a TEOTHAWKI scenario. I believe a TEOTHAWKI would be factors of disease, failing economy, and a large terrorist attack. There would be no help because of a break-down of social and civil order, then it would be everyone on there own.

Unlike most here, my racecourses are limited: My only choices for arms are my High Standard 22 revolver, my G17, My “ON THE WAY” (whenever RRA decides to build the dang thin) A15/M4, a Marlin Mod 60, and a Remy 700 in -06 flavor, + an old shotgun or 2.

The most drastic changes to my personal protection from traveling versus staying put would be the amount of ammo brought along. I mean you cant defend yourself if your to weak to hold a gun because you haven’t eaten in 3 weeks or you have caught something.

August 23, 2006, 10:53 AM
The most drastic changes to my personal protection from traveling versus staying put would be the amount of ammo brought along. I mean you cant defend yourself if your to weak to hold a gun because you havenít eaten in 3 weeks or you have caught something.

The biggest issue is having some place to travel to. You can't just wonder around aimlessly from place to place while using up the little bit of supplies you are able to carry on your back.

High Planes Drifter
August 23, 2006, 02:26 PM
The biggest issue is having some place to travel to. You can't just wonder around aimlessly from place to place while using up the little bit of supplies you are able to carry on your back.

Good point. Im looking for property now as weekend getaway/ retreat to spot.
As far as weapons go; I plan on taking every gun I own with me. Load them in the car with the ammo. They'll do not good staying behind.

My opinion on the crap hitting the fan: I think it will be more of a gradual downward cycle. I really dont think any major nationwide affecting catastrophic event will occur that throws us into the stonage. It think it will be a gradual decline of our civilization brought on by oil shortages/rising oil prices, crime, slumping economy, moral decay, etc. etc. It will get to the point that anyone who can afford land will get out of the major cities. It happened here in New Orleans on a much smaller scale back in the 80's; it was refered to as the "white flight". Most anyone who could, moved out of the city. Perhaps that is what will eventually happen, maybe you'll have "pockets" of folks living in small communities like what you saw on the movie "The Postman", and there will no longer be suburbia right outside of major cities.

August 23, 2006, 08:34 PM
Staying where I am now with what we have now. Malone Labe

silent knight
August 25, 2006, 05:25 PM
Unfortunately, many of those Korean swap meet owners were disarmed by the LAPD, one of them is a friends dad, he owned a spot at one of the swapmeets, he got to fire a few rounds at some looters that held back after noticing the guys on the rooftop.

In my case, i think i am safer at home where i can protect myself and my loved ones. I cant rely on the LAPD, the LAPD can't do it all, no matter what they say. They dont have the man power to hold Los Angeles down, if they did.. Reginald Dennie wouldnt have had his ass beaten near death at Normandie by those Crips for that long. It takes the LAPD 15-45 minutes to get to a scene (from my experience), by then the thugs, burglars or who ever will be gone. I just hope that "Stand Your Ground" will one day plant its seed here in ************. They say to leave the guns and protection from the Cops, with all do respect, LAPD are the most trigger happy police force i have ever scene and the majority of Angelinos are feel more afraid than safe around the LAPD, and that goes for all the race, whites, blacks & browns.

I'd stay home, lock the doors, arm my wife and wait till everything is over. I have stored two weeks of supplies food, water, diapers & ammo. If it's a natural dis and i need to leave, i'd pack all that in my truck and secure my weapons so that the LAPD wont harrass me. Lucky for a lot of you guys, you can conceal and stand your ground. Im not sure if that law passed or if it was ever brought to the table about disarming law abiding citizens during natural disasters.

August 25, 2006, 06:11 PM
War like end all Staying at home scenario

12ga (870 Marine Magnum with folding stock)
.308 (HKG3 or DPMS LR)
9mm (Glock G19)
.22lr (Walther P22)

In an end all scenario, this would be my choice as all the calibers are readily available, easy to reload, and cover just about any situation.


War like end allon the run

.45/.454 (ruger revolver)
.22lr rifle

If I'm going to be packing light for alot of running, a good .22LR rifle and a ruger 454/45 revolver would be my choice. That way I could carry tons of ammo for hunting/survival, and take about anything I come accross.


Stranded in a forbidden place (jungle/woods - no human threats / not end all)

12ga O/U
.357 revolver (Medusa 47 perhaps)

If the scenario is not a war like (ie stranded in the woods), I'd choose an all in one type gun (ie currently building a 12ga O/U, with .357max upper 18" barrel insert, that way I have 12ga + .357mag/max and .38spl...all around gun!). The revolver would have ammo changebility with the rifle insert.

Just depends on the scenario. I guess I';ll just choose when the S*** Hits The Fan...gonna happen sooner or later.

August 25, 2006, 06:41 PM
SHTF scenario: THE RECONQUISTA (yeah, RIGHT!:neener: )

1) Rifle - I guess my SKS, though I'd feel comfortable with several others that I own (like a Mini-14 or my Savage 10FP in .308)
2) Shotgun - Mossberg 500 with long and short barrel + choke tubes
3) CZ 97B
4) Extra rifle - bolt action remingtion 582 (I love love love this little .22LR, my first gun when I joined the cub scouts.
I thought about posting my BFR in .500 mag as my preferred pistol, but I have a feeling some people here would've taken me seriously:p

ETA: Zen21Tao!!

Where can a guy pick up a tactical wheelbarrow such as yours?!

I can see myself now:
Sitting in the tactical wheelbarrow, peering over the hills of east country San Diego through my camo'd binocs, I notice the BGs coming to 'take' my house and the well that it sits near. They should know that I DON'T SHARE!

I kick myself off, and begin rolling down the side of the hill. Once they are in range (for me that's about 2000 yrds; it would be more like 1 1/2 miles if I wasn't in a moving, bouncing wheelbarrow) I stand up and open fire. Get 'em all, never miss... all thanks to the tactikewl wheelbarrow!:D

Can I buy yours? I'll trade ya for my '86 Yot'er Land Cruiser 4X4.

August 25, 2006, 06:57 PM
My SHTF gear:

M1A Scout 18" .308
Springfield XD9 4" 9mm
Ruger sp101 3" .357

I'd probably bring a Winchester94 in .30-30 and my Glock21 in 45acp as backup weapons in case any of the others failed or I made a friend or two when I was settled. I've never gotten into shotties, so I'll abstain from listing one that I don't own and don't know the manual of arms to.

About 2 weeks of roughin' it food that can be thrown in the back of my big blue Dodge pickup along with lanterns, sleeping bags, tents, cooking gear, several hundred rounds of ammo, construction tools, rope and spare clothing. I have fuel for lanterns and stoves to last 2-3 weeks with care. I try to keep my pickup well above 1/2 a tank at any given time, which gives me a 200 mile emergency radius if no fuel is available and the roads are clear.

August 25, 2006, 08:16 PM
hso - wake up! :)

For Me the most likely Serious Situation I personally face is:

Older returning student attending college across the river.

Since I am familar with the limited routes to get back and forth over that river and HAVE been in Serious Situations due to Ice Storms, Snow, or Tornados...

I have had to stay put, because the LEO agencies said nobody needed to be out to cross the routes or only emergency personal allowed to be on them bridges.

I have had to turn around and head back to where I started from - and have a plan and place to stay.

I have spent 3.5 hours stuck on that bridge when a really bad wreck, coupled with a Tornado , and sleet - made pretzles out of 18 wheelers and other vehicles. Took me me 3 hours to make 500 yds to an exit. Seems a wreck behind me prevented me / others from going back.

It was 18* F with a wind chill of something really cold on that bridge. Army Blanket, water, and cans of tunafish and vienna sausage...etc., were the better things of my "payload".

Folks thought I was nuts for having a dozen cans of vienna sausage in my vehicle in a ice chest...there was a Couple from out of town with 2 kids that thought I had hung the moon giving fussy , scared, kids vienna sausage.

We had a Doctor, a nurse, a mechanic and other folks keeping tabs and working like a team up there.

Gas can with means to siphon gas handy, engines were shut off, and then back on for a bit - still needed to idle to keep folks warm, especially the elderly and kids. Nobody ran out of gas - we made sure of that.

Doctor, a nurse, mechanic and myself had extra space blankets, amazing how much warmth these things provide inside a vehicle breaking the wind...yep, just those little bitty foil looking ones....

Umm , yeah, I was CCW-ing, not the tool(s) I needed that night, nor has it been for other Serious Situations.

August 25, 2006, 09:24 PM
Like about a week! :uhoh:

My travelling stash for bug-out: * WASR10 AK-47 + 7 30rd Bulgy mags stuffed
with Wolf Military Classic
* Glock 19 and 6 standard caps (WW 115gr
* SP 101 and 4 speedloaders and 2 speed
strips of the FBI load

Last year for Rita it was just the Glock and the Ruger as I wanted guns that had "universal ammo" (ie 9mm/.357/.38 spl) and ALWAYS went BANG.

I picked up the AK after thinking more about Katrina :evil:

August 25, 2006, 10:34 PM
if you're talking risk management, you not only have to take into account the relative odds of a given scenario, but how soon it is likely to occur.

For example, in the next 10 years, the odds of a major SHTF as a result of a tyrannical gov't are maybe 5%. over the next 300 years it's a relative certainty (99.9%+). In other words, it's really just a question of when. The same is true for natural disasters, which is why we have phrases like "a 100 year flood".

I think the economy is more resilient than most people give it credit for, and there aren't many natural disasters around middle TN, and for good or ill, I think the gov't has some life left. So, I'd say the FIRST shtf I'm likely to see will be biological.

Shooting viri and bacteria might be entertaining, but probably won't be terribly effective. My payload's a shelf full of good books and a couple bottles of Jack.

August 25, 2006, 10:44 PM
I am a strong believer in having a food storage--mre's,water, etc.
As for guns:
Colt Delta Elite 10mm
Colt Police Positive Special .38 Spl
German K98 8mm Mauser
Winchester 1300 pump 12 guage

Doug S
August 25, 2006, 11:20 PM
I know this doesn't address the original question, but I've been working on an emergency pack over the last couple of weeks. Got around to taking a picture of the pack with my new Yugo, and this thread seems like a good excuse to post it. I accidently stuck a 40 round mag in the Yugo for the picture.

August 26, 2006, 02:22 AM
I'll be 18 in July '07. I'll buy a rifle or shotgun around then. If the shiit hits in the fan, most likely massive earthquake, property defense.
I plan on buying only one of the following:
Yugo sks
Ruger mini14/30, If i have the cash
remington 870
mossberg 500/590
saiga 7.62x39 civilian, rifle stock ak style rifle
surplus bolt-action, mosin, mauser

I'll also for sure buy a henry survial rifle, the one that all fits in the stock, to keep in the car. But until then i'm thinking about any of those rifles.

Oh and my dream kit would be:
Glock 17 on my hip.
Walther PPk-.380 tucked away somewhere on body
some sort of collapsable stock mini-14 or AKM
A Glock 31 in the car, along with a Springfield Armoury 1911A1
A Yugo Sks

August 26, 2006, 02:25 AM
i would guess, if going biblical here, the economy thing. Elsewise, huge natural disaster, like Katrina. then i go with my ak variants. like the line from Jackie Brown says, "AK 47, when you absolutely , positively have to kill every M...f((*&(er in the room...".762 russian, and 223.

August 26, 2006, 08:37 AM
Most likely SHTF scenario is a biological catastrophe, whether initiated by "evil forces" or a pandemic like the bird flu. (I have a degree in molecular biology, and biologicals REALLY scare me, becasue they are easy to make and distribute). This would cause the collapse of the economy, as well as all kinds of other nasty things.

NOT buggin' out, I'm far better off to stay in place. (which means, realistically I could have as many guns and ammo as I'd need). My house is in a highly defensible position, w/ 360 degree field of fire, plus multiple trained dogs. But for the purposes of the exercise:

1) Scoped High Powered Rifle (least likely to be needed, but good to have)
2) 12 gauge pump gun, various loads from bridshot for hunting, to 00 buck for defence
3) SKS-M (takes AK mags, hvae enough mags to load 240 rounds)
4) Marlin Model 60 .22 for subsistance hunting (I have 10 acres, as do most neighbors. In fact I was just watching a mamma turkey w/ babies in my back yard. Deer walk up to with 50 feet of the house routinely.)

August 26, 2006, 10:29 AM
The SHTF I envision is not so much a lack of governmental control over a rioting populace. As I believe in Christianity, having spent my entire youth in Christian schools, I have learned alot about what the Bible says about our future. It talks about when the U.S. (identified in other terms) aligns itself with the "Red Armies" against Israel it will mark the beginning of the end of times.

I can visualize this happening considering the current conditions between Lebanon, Israel and Iran today. Israel's existance is a thorn in the side of all muslims and they exist right in their face. If the world decides that the best thing to ensure final and total peace in that region of the world and an end to terrorism world-wide would be the end of Israel, then we would be witness to a catastrophic event. If Iran, who liberally states that they desire the end of Israel, decides to use their new found nuclear technology to attack Israel and Israel attacks in a way not acceptable to the rest of the world, the world will turn against her and want her destruction. Don't think Israel doesn't know what the Bible says about her role in this prediction and may explain her peculiar actions regarding the current conflict.

The Roman Catholic Church plays an integral part of this end being the catalyst for political changes around the world resulting in the labeling and catagorizing of "trouble-makers" in all societies. These "trouble-makers", those who refuse to accept their "rules" (direct or indirect) would be labeled, identified and gathered up. This will be performed by their followers, those that have accepted their "control", those that live among us will turn them in.

So, those that refuse to accept their rule will hopefully recognize the signs and go immediately into hiding.
When a majority of society is brainwashed to believe a certain group of people is bad and not beneficial to their well-being or "perfect" society, they will freely and willingly go after those "trouble-makers" themselves to "protect their children" and their society.

Don't think it can't happen to us, this very thing did happen only 60 some years ago in Europe and more recently in Yugoslavia.
So, my SHTF scenario will be to hopefully recognize what's happening and go into hiding. If I happen to be a "trouble-maker" per their definitions. To get into a fight with my entire former community would be suicide, to get captured and accused with no chance of a fair trial would be suicide.

So, even as a Christian, I have no problem protecting my life or the lives of my family and will fight to the bitter end even if I see no hope, I would make them regret ever having decided to apprehend or attack me or my family. They would have to really consider their loyalties and adherence to their new convictions.

I own several firearms and would most definitely take all of them, probably the most useful would be my AK-47 and my .45acp, and though I may be considered evil in the minds of those that hunt me down, I will know that I would be truly righteous in the eyes of God and would go down with a peaceful conscience.

August 26, 2006, 04:30 PM
Whoa! I am not really sure I buy the Armageddon scenarios. We have, actually been through some tough times in this country before, and rarely have we needed to start shooting people.

Since I bet most any longer term scenario will be economic, I have my debts payed off so the bank can't come and repossess the family farm. That is probably the most important preparation I can think of. Lots of people lost everything in 1929-35 because of lack of MONEY. No one needed military rifles, they needed to be economically sound. When economies start collapsing, you better have an ECONOMIC back-up plan unless you want to start roaming the desert in your stripped 4wd looking for people to prey on.

Not very romantic, and not about guns, but there it is.

August 26, 2006, 06:57 PM
Rising debt and lowered oil supplies. Think great depression but worse because people are less self sufficient and more ignorant to survival. This would probably first be seen in inner cities as rioting and looting, and move out towards the rest of the country.

Primary weapon-yugo SKS
Secondary-Makarov pistol
Hunting/presicion-Scoped K31
Practice/small game-My 22's
Home defense-all of the above plus a Win 1300 defender in 12guage.

I have others, but these are my "first up".
Just as important though is food, water, medical supplies, transportation (including the human powered kind), knowledge of your surroundings, camping/hunting/farming skills and supplies, and most important a good plan, with several backups that are well thought out.

Headless Thompson Gunner
December 9, 2006, 12:22 AM
You are not Rambo. Real life isn't a Hollywood action movie. Red Dawn and Mad Max make for some great fiction, but don't lose sight of the fact that these are in fact fiction. Plan for reality.

Most likely scenario is short term localized civil disorder, a la Katrina or LA riots. Most likely causes are natural disaster, man-made disaster (e.g. chemical spill), terrorist attack, or race riots.

The obvious solution is to not be in that particular locality that's exploding at the moment. Leave before disaster strikes if you can. If you can't, leave as quickly thereafter as you can. There's no sense putting yourself through a survival situation when you can drive away from it. Watch it on CNN from a hotel room in another state. Don't risk your life over your home and your possessions. Insurance will cover the damage, and those few irreplaceable sentimental items can be tossed into the back of the car before you leave.

A reliable vehicle, a road atlas, a cell phone, and a credit card would be the most valuable tools for staying out of trouble. A few spare changes of clothes, vital medications, contact info, spare keys, some cash, a bit of food and water and other things of this sort should be packed in a bag or a box for quick and easy retrieval. Your CCW piece will be on your hip when the disaster strikes, so there's no urgent need to keep a spare gun around just for disaster prep. If your CCW isn't enough gun, grab your home defense long gun from the bedroom. Write up a list of other items to grab before leaving, things like your family photo album and your home defense gun and whatever else you wouldn't want to forget. Store the list with your bag of spare clothes, etc.

December 9, 2006, 12:43 AM
I'm going to try to keep it simple.

Most likely SHTF scenario is a major Hurricane or plant explosion in Houston area for me. For global SHTF or class 4 zombie attack is to have enough ammo and fuel to make it to East Texas, where I have family and supplies(on the hoof, no less) I'm going to have to figure how to make it out after experiencing the dry run of Rita. I'm already stocking the extra fuel.

SHTF rifle as of right now is an FAL and a Glock 19.


December 9, 2006, 12:47 AM
I'd agree with Thompson Hunter except on these 2 points:
a cell phone, and a credit card

During Rita evac these two items were next to useless, as all circuits were busy. keep some spare cash and fuel cans(full). for fast evacs.


December 9, 2006, 01:15 AM
my most like SHTF senario is getting stranded a long ways from town this winter on my sled. I carry my 1911 on me, a survival kit, tools and some basic spare parts.

December 9, 2006, 03:28 AM
So, since all the most likely scenarios have been covered, let me go all Jericho: bad guys have imported nukes and set them off in a dozen large cities.

If we stay where we are, the most likely immediate concern is being overrun by refugees from places like the Bay Area or Sacramento. We're a small enough town that we're an unlikely target, and we're shielded by distance and mountains from any direct impact of a coordinated strike.

Under those circumstances, our best shot is to stay where we are and team up with the neighbors to guard our community. We, in our neighborhood, pretty much all know one another, and it's all single family homes, primarily brick construction.

A number of us have stocks of food, water, medical, lanterns, firewood, and all that jazz. Some of our neighbors are LDS and it's second nature for them. We had to study for it, cuz we spent too many years in denial. We are equipped for cooking under primitive conditions, have dried foods, canned goods, and all that.

The only thing that really concerns me is hostilities. Most of our neighbors are gentle folk, who are armed inadequately or not at all. I know of a couple of households that can be brought on line and up to speed pretty quickly with loaners from me, but I don't know who else would cowboy up when the crappenflinger flung.

Arms? Well, since I'm at home, I get to keep whatever I don't lend to the new improved Neighborhood Watch.

I reckon I'd keep the CX4-9mm around the house, along with the XD40 on the belt. For outside guard duty I'd probably use the Kel-tec rifle (SU-16A), as it's light, stows spare ammo, decent rate of fire.

If it became necessary to go shopping in the woods, the Marlin .357 in hand with S&W 586 on belt would get groceries. If a bigger hunting party went out for a more community-oriented hunt, then the .30-30 in hand with 586/.357 on belt.

If things degenerated to the point of having to pack up and head out, then everything in the safe goes in the Jeep. Wife's PT111 stays with her, and XD40 with me, with CX4 close at hand. Grab earmarked mobile supplies and toss in Jeep, too, along with sleeping bags and camp gear plus navigation needs.

If it degenerated to the point of having to choose only a few weapons, the SU-16 folds and goes in my pack, along with the Smith; the XD goes on the belt and the .357 cabine goes in my hand. Wife carries her 9mm pistol and the CX4. Ruger MkII goes in her pack. Ammo is rationed and distributed according to our ability to hump it around.

By this time, it is hoped we are not on our own, but traveling with friends. We have a select group of people on whom we can depend. Not all of them are close to us, but nobody is farther away than 15 miles.

If we find ourselves alone, then we learn fast or die.

I haven't camped out since I was 17. She hasn't camped out since she was 18. We both grew up in mountains and foothills. I'm sure we could figure it out.

Incidentally, given that the focus was gun selection, I didn't go into any depth on knives, but it should be said that under all circumstances you will use a knife much more than you will a gun. I have a wide selection, including hatchets, axes, and machetes. Even a knife designed to function as a spear head.

I'm sure most of us have a few or even several quality edged tools. Those who don't: you might want to invest some time and acquaint yourself with what's out there and what suits you best.

In some later episode I'll consider what it would be like if we had to run, and review the how and where. Right now, a running scenario pretty much sucks for us.

I'll work on it.

December 9, 2006, 03:58 AM
The Roman Catholic Church plays an integral part of this end being the catalyst for political changes around the world resulting in the labeling and catagorizing of "trouble-makers" in all societies.

Wow… As a Roman Catholic, I WISH we were half that organized. I recall a conversation between a Non-Denominational Christian and a Catholic Priest. The NDC says, “I will not join an organized religion.” RC Priest responds, “You should really look into Catholicism then.”

Back to topic: Hurricane is the most likely here in the “Free City”. The BOB has much more than firearms but for relevance to THR if I have to Bug Out, I’ll be taking my CCW and a Win Mod 94.

If I’m buggin’ IN, then it will be my entire arsenal if needed (a la Katrina).

I have thought about switching my long arm to my SKS but I love my Win more than my SKS so it’s coming with me.

I would probably take about 30 to 50 rounds for the thudy-thudy.

I'd agree with Thompson Hunter except on these 2 points:

a cell phone, and a credit card
During Rita evac these two items were next to useless, as all circuits were busy. keep some spare cash and fuel cans(full). for fast evacs.

Yep… the Credit Card was a bust. I did seem to always have a Cell though.

FYI: A Sam’s Card was a nice thing to have. In some areas of town, that was the ONLY gas to be had.

December 9, 2006, 02:58 PM
first let me say i guess i am that type ;) second forgive my spelling

here goes ---

7 terrorists from iran sneek in to this country with a plan of attack then nukes go off around the country hitting 7 magor citys .. all 7 are wiped out includeing dc our government is left scattered at best with no command in place ......are transportation infrastructior as well as food and watter supplys are a total loss most motorized vehicials wont run becouse of a emp strike ......those who didnt die from the first strikes and or the fallout are now dieing from eating contaminated food and or watter or els starveing to death ..........disease begin to show up everywhere and with out the meens to controll it kills many of the still liveing .........people begin to kill and rob those who they can find and are unable to fully protect themselves -----in the meen time china sees the opertunity to take controll of what ever goverment we have left and thus takes controll of are country in the name of the un ......................

would i bug out??? no !

step 1 --- after fallout subsides i set up my permiter security and set up my decontaminaton area for my security force

step 2 -------after fallout settle in for a long drawn out battle with the situation -the elaments -- and whoever feels it necessay to tresspass in to my controlled area

but for this excersize in a bug out situation

i would take the following

sks with 100 rounds
45 acp 100 rounds
dose meters
atv with cart
and standered bugout items

the wife would carry
7mm mag 50 rounds
45 acp 100 rounds
the rest is standered

both kids would carry
semi auto .22
with a back up 25 auto
the rest is standered equ

and all this is done to protect us from those who dont care to prepair them selves

December 9, 2006, 05:57 PM
SHTF isn't too likely here. I do live near Ft. Campbell though and if I see a mushroom cloud I guess I'm screwed a short time later. :what:

For any other reason (social chaos, economic collapse, zombies, etc.) I would stay at home and bug in. I live in a VERY rural farm area and only have 10 or so neighbors that live within a few miles of me and they are all great folks with alot of guns :D . Everyone at our Church watches out for each others homes.

Hopefully we could get out on backroads and band together to gather resources and protect each other from outside "visitors". I have a wood stove in the basement and a pile of firewood that's literally 150" long and 5' high behind my house so heat would not be an issue. I have enough food and water for a few weeks and most folks here are on well water with generator back up if we need more.

If we need more food I have deer in my yard on a daily basis so I suppose they'd start dissappearing pretty fast :evil: .

As far as guns go, I have a wide variety and my neighbors do as well. I have 4 AR 15's and about 3K of ammo at home. I also have a .270 and 30-06 with several hundred rounds and a Savage 10fp in .223 all for the long range work.

If anyone got close enough to my home I'd use one of my shotguns (Rem 870 or Mossy 500) and if they were really close I'd use my Glock 27 or Sig 239.

Here is a pic of my front yard, good luck to anyone wanting to get too close without getting our attention :evil: .

December 9, 2006, 06:35 PM

Rifle: HK 91
Shotgun: Mossberg 500
Pistol: S&W 6946
Alt: Rurger 10/22

December 9, 2006, 09:25 PM
Likely scenario is another depression, or terror attack.

I am going to go way out on a limb with the perfect firearm for SHTF.

.357 revolver (preparing for flames) :neener:

My rationale:

1) SHTF is not battlefield combat. No need for a 30-06. No need to shoot 400 yards.

2) If you need to run (literally, or figuratively) a revolver is half the weight of any rifle, and so is the ammo.

3) If you need to hunt, the .357 can, and has, taken any creature walking North america. One if my customers has taken several deer, past 100 yards! There is a post on this site of someone who took a Bison with a .357! It isn't hard to find stories online of rangers shooting Grizzlies with a .357 (not that I would recommend that) Or you can shoot rabbits without totally obliterating them.

4) Concealabilty. You can walk around stealthily, or overtly, carrying with ease! Do you want to hide it on your hip as to not alarm anyone? Or do you want to open carry as a deterent? It can always be at your hip, with no sling to fuss with.

Admittedly, it is not the perfect tool for any situation. It is sort of the "Swiss Army Knife" of weapons that will get the job done in most situation. I'm not saying you should trade in your AR's for a revolver.

BTW, the great Bill Jordon tells of a border patrolman named Sam Mckone, who had a fire fight with a contrabandista at 200 yards. The BG had a 30-30, Mckone had a .38 Special! With some well placed shots, Mckone won the fight! [Jordon, 1965]. I am not saying you should feel good about taking a pistol into battle, I am just supporting my theory. ;)

December 9, 2006, 10:18 PM
I'll agree with your choice of caliber in a revolver and some of your reasoning. I'll be quick to add that you consider a lever action rifle in .357 to give you a little more versitility.

December 9, 2006, 11:57 PM
Y3k and I am hanging out with my BAR (which I plan to get by then LOL)

December 10, 2006, 12:04 AM
For digging in:

We have food, water, medications and most importantly, TP to last 6 months or more. Also, a 5000w gennie, with gas, to run a few hours each day to keep the freezers cold. There'd be no more TV, but we have a lot of books. Night time would be illuminated by candles and lanterns. Flashlights, batteries and several small crank radios and flashlights. Pet food for all our creatures, great and small, for up to a year. High quality knives of different sizes and purposes. Camping gear with enough outdoor/hunting experience to make it work indefinitely.

Weapons include:

CCW=Ruger P345, Ruger P89, 2 Walther PPK's, Astra in .40, Taurus 608SS6 in .357. Each with at least 1K rounds.

Shottys= Winchester 1300 12G with 6rd mag, side saddle, Chote folder, touch-light. Remington 20G.

Long guns= Ruger M77 MKII in 30.06 with scope, Savage .270 with scope, Rem .22 BA. Each with several hundred rds.

Reflex Bow with several shafts and broad-heads.

Talents for trade/barter:

Wife is Trauma RN. We also have LOTS of medical supplies.
Me=Aviator....ATP licensed single and multi-engine airplane. ATP Helicopter. Also, former paramedic.

All-wheel drive Subaru with trailer hitch and top-carry, (and spare gas cans,) to load with everything possible to get to out of the way farm of my BIL, who is equally stocked and armed.

I never want to get smug or over confident, but I think we'd do allright, whether here at home or bugging out.

Best/stay safe (and prepared!)

December 10, 2006, 01:06 AM
the only logical situation i can see arising is a Mr. and Mrs. Smith type situation where two hit man firms want me and my gorgeous wife dead. naturally she is also aquainted with firearms. and she gorgeous.

in this case, i would pack my SKS, my 870 and my Single six. If anything needs shot, one of these can easily handle the occasion reliably. as for food and supplies, i can either stop at quaint local diners, or have my stuff air-dropped by friends still inside the above-mentioned firms. did i mention my wife would be gorgeous.

Redneck with a 40
December 10, 2006, 01:20 AM
I would stay put myself in a SHTF scenario, I live up in the mountains of Colorado, 40 miles from the nearest city.:D I'd make sure I had plenty of ammo for my guns, which are as follows :
1) I'd have at least one 640 round tin of wolf 7.62 for my SKS
2) At least 250 rounds of buckshot and 100 slugs for the o'le 12 gauge
3) 1000 rounds of good jhp's for both of my 40's
4) 2000 rounds of 22 LR for my remington nylon 66 and Ruger 22/45
5) 500 rounds of 357 magnum, 158 grain JSP's would be good

If I had to leave my place, I'd load up all of my guns and ammo in my Jeep, its a CJ-7 on 33's with lockers, it can get me up into some pretty remote places.:D Of course I'd take plenty of food and water as well. Unless it got really nasty, I don't forsee having to leave this place. I'd have to worry about defending this place against the hoards of panicked city people trying to pillage my stuff.

December 10, 2006, 01:33 AM
Opinions about SHTF scenarios are like ocean waves:
they come, they wash over us, then they wash back out to sea.

The one posted in this little bit of cyberspace last night has washed back out to sea.
(Sometimes, it's fun to experiment with on line expression; consider this as one such experiment ... :p )

Summary of the original before editing: it'll probably be weather related, if not directly, then indirectly.

Mountaineers, climbers, and other serious outdoor adventure types know - borrowing an old, currently-little-used expression - "to keep a weather eye out", especially when they're way up high or in some other very exposed condition (e.g., overnight bivouac on a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall) and to have the proper gear, knowledge and skills to weather storms. For a mountaineer, what ever else is going on to cause SHTF (a fall, for example) is only exacerbated by nasty weather.

Interesting weather around the planet these days, don't ya' know? ;)

I, also, agree with springmom, (post #85, below):
this kind of thread can be long as they don't come along too often. :D
(Kinda like ocean waves...)

Weaponry mostly the same as before the edit, but a couple of changes after some reflection...

Shotgun: 870 (2 barrels: 18 IC and 26 MC)
Handgun: SW 642
Rifle: .22LR (either a CZ or a Marlin 39A) or Marlin 336 .30-30
(both rifles if possible; leaving one behind would be
a tough, tough, gut-wrenching decision :uhoh: :eek: )

If I must be on foot ... I'll make a decision before I start walking.
(Hmm. Which ones of those do I want to tote...? :scrutiny: )


December 10, 2006, 01:39 AM
Hilary Clinton gets elected president.

Redneck with a 40
December 10, 2006, 12:45 PM
Correction.....Hillary/Obama gets elected President. :barf: :barf: :barf: :barf: :barf: :barf: :barf:


December 10, 2006, 03:24 PM
These threads are fun, as long as they don't come along too often (and don't ask me what "too often" is, I just know it when I see it) :neener:

Hm. Most likely scenario for here in SE Texas would probably be the utter dissolution, not of OUR economy, but of the Mexican economy and state and the bugging out of as many Mexican citizens as can walk, crawl, dig, swim, fly, slither, or roll across that border to flee utter, complete madness and chaos south of the border. IOW, think Hurricane Katrina with several MILLION people, all panicked, all hungry, all running, with some stopping to take whatever they want/need.

(Well, ok, the MOST likely alarm goes off in the night and DH and I face some dumb burglar who didn't think to leave when the siren started. But that doesn't really count as SHTF to me).

Browning Hi-Power 9mm (because it holds the most rounds of all my handguns) with extra mags
AR-15 .223 with all the extra mags
Beretta Urika A391 20 gauge.

and whatever Archerandshooter brought. Actually, since he'd bring his 1911, I'll add my Kimber Ultra Carry II to the list because then we can share ammo for those.

Hopefully all this will hold off until we can buy the land we want to get for hunting (now) and retirement (later).... then we'd bug out to there and stay put.

My sister in law says DH and I remind her of Bert Gummer and his wife in Tremors. I think I can see why, re-reading this post.... :rolleyes:


December 10, 2006, 03:29 PM
Well as long as the US government or the Corps maintains its integrity...

M9 or 1911 on me at all times.
M4 or AK to make my way to wherever the gov tells me to go
Whatever the US government puts in my hands once I get there.

Back home? Terr attack on Philly. Philly's evac plan? dump hordes of refugees on the rest of PA.

1911 at all times.
No trespassing signs on my perimeter ("If you can read this, you're in my scope, DON'T cross the fence/break the treeline... If you have a need, come out with your hands where I can see'em)
Scoped rifle to back up the signs from a concealed position.

December 10, 2006, 06:47 PM
I'm not sure exactly what a realistic SHTF scenario is, these days. But reading this thread has convinced me that I definitely need to put some skull sweat into contemplating preparedness measures beyond that of just firearms.

Something. Anything. Even a week's worth of safe rations would be a step in the right direction.

I am happy to note that at least my house is made of brick. It won't hold up forever to sustained fire, but it's better than 2x4 + sheathing construction.

I live in a very arid are, so a lack of water is something to consider. It's also a long way from here to anywhere else, but as mentioned before, "elsewhere" may not be a lot better. Except you can probably actually grow food elsewhere.

December 10, 2006, 06:56 PM
... several MILLION people, all panicked, all hungry, all running, with some stopping to take whatever they want/need... That, too, could be weather related ... collapsed agricultural systems due to heat waves, extended droughts, etc.

Such a scenario could easily involve tens of millions...
hundreds of millions if one considers multiple parts of the planet.
...reading this thread has convinced me that I definitely need to put some skull sweat into contemplating preparedness measures beyond that of just firearms.Umm, hmmm. I heard that. ;)

December 10, 2006, 07:12 PM
i'm digging in. weather disaster will be after i'm dust. i live 50 miles from dc. so as long as it doesn't gllow in the dark i'm staying got game fish ans enough stuff stashed to become a mormon. my daugher made me make preperations to move goat pony and chickens to a safe place for a week or so with us. i never cross a 5 year old and she heard wife and me planning for the people and she demanded equal rights for critters. not bad idea either eggs and chickens are tasty

December 10, 2006, 09:12 PM

December 10, 2006, 10:01 PM
That, too, could be weather related ... collapsed agricultural systems due to heat waves, extended droughts, etc.

Such a scenario could easily involve tens of millions...
hundreds of millions if one considers multiple parts of the planet.

Good point.

I too need to give some thought to our preparedness. We did pretty well in stocking up on water, propane, etc., with Katrina (until about 24 hours before landfall, it was thought that it might come right over us), but all the bottled water's been snagged by teenagers or us, and I need to put aside foodstuffs that we can leave in our supplies closet.


December 11, 2006, 04:14 AM
Because my range time is often somewhat compressed, and I don't have time to set up paper, and because I like reactive targets, I have begun using water-filled containers as targets.

I started by filling gallon milk jugs, half-gallon juice bottles, two-liter pop bottles and smaller bottles with water to a) keep the wind from knocking them over and blowing them around, b) have a target that was sized along the lines of smaller animals.

I don't get as much range time as I'd like, so the bottles pile up a bit.

I rinse the bottles thoroughly. I use them in rotation (oldest first). I noticed something a few weeks ago: I have so many of these stashed in the garage and shed that when I counted them I found I had more than 40 gallons of potable water, mostly in one-gallon and half-gallon containers.

Now it's just part of my routine. Instead of chucking or recycling the half- and one-gallon, I rinse them thoroughly and fill them with water, making sure I know where the oldest ones are.

Water may have to be treated, but turning icky water into nice water is a whole lot easier if you actually have some water to begin with.

Oh, and (referring back to my first post in this thread) I think for for near-home guard duty I'd take the M1 Carbine. I can carry more ammo for it, and frankly I'm a better shot with it.

December 13, 2006, 02:58 AM
I think it is real important to keep your intentions and knowledge of your supplies quiet. The fewer folks who know what your plans are and that you have stockpiles of any kind, the better off you will be. You will get fewer freeloaders. Less chance you will become a target of a raid.

Maybe let the neighbors see you packing guns for hunting or range work. They might get the idea, your house isn't one to mess around with.

Pack for several different scenarios. One afoot, One with transportation, and pack in such a way you can adjust your supplies to suit the situation. Modular packing.


December 13, 2006, 11:43 AM
Today we have calls for the destruction of the United States from Islamic radicals all over the world. It is only a matter of time before these hydrophobic lunatics get their hands on nuclear weapons.

Russia's population is imploding from a high of approximately 150 million to a predicted 80 million or LESS by 2050. Their current population is 15% Islamic of which a significant percentage have been thoroughly radicalized. The only segment of the Russian population that is growing is Muslim. By 2050 Russia will be 35 to 45 percent Islamic. Who will control the government and nukes?

France is approximately 10 to 15 percent Muslim and Muslim population growth is dwarfing the indigenous population. 35 - 45 percent of newborns in France are Muslim. Who will control the government and nukes in France?

England - same thing. Netherlands - same thing. Denmark and Sweden - same trend lines.

Pakistan HAS nukes and currently has a government ostensibly alligned with the USA. This could change over night and likely will.

Iran is trying their level best to acquire nuclear technology. And will soon, if the enfeebled El Presidente Jorge Bush or the Israelis don't take action. This will alter forever the balance of power not only in the Middle East but, more importantly, in Europe as well where Iranian nukes will be aimed.

So, my most likely SHTF scenario in the short term will be precipitated by terrorist strikes and/or political black mail emanating from increasingly radicalized Islamic leaning governments around the world.

The United States, whose own sovereignty is being undermined by runaway incoherent immigration policies, will be the last bulwark against an increasingly hostile and Islamicized world.

Terrorist attacks will likely take place in the USA in relatively short order and these are, by far, the most likely short term SHTF scenario. Despite elaborate redundancies, the complexity of our social order IS vulnerable - very much so.

Having lived through two recent power outages of 7 days or more in the last 9 months I can tell you that our infrastructure is EXTREMELY vulnerable. The terrorists have witnessed the chaos caused by Katrina and I can assure you they have taken note.

The other scenarios cited here are likely to occur as the sequelae of a precipitating terrorist attack. As far as preparation goes: I would refer you to the writings of Ferfal:

December 13, 2006, 12:18 PM
If everybody skips a meal or two, once the supply chain from food production to market ends. Believe me the SHTF scenerio will absolutely happen. Remember, grocery chains are only a week or two away from no stock at the most. When people are hungry I imagine trucks will be hijacked. IMHO only the strong and prepared will survive.

December 13, 2006, 03:53 PM
My choices:

Beretta 92 FS High Cap (lots of 9mm around)
AK-47 (I have lots of ammo for it)
Winchester 870P 12 ga.

We live way out in the country. Members of our family that live in the city have been told to try and make it to the farm (one family has a major river to cross) the others do not.
We have a root cellar full of food, three freezers, propane generator with a full 350 gallon tank. Numerous other firearms and good supply of ammo. We are not perfect but we are better off than a lot of other folks.

Vern Humphrey
December 13, 2006, 06:02 PM
Live in rural area, ain't buggin out

We're buggin in. Everybody talks about buggin out, but how many have given any thought to how & where ?

I have relatives on both sides of my house and we're backed up to 11 acres with a pond. Everybody's armed, including Grandpa & the kid.

Amen. As an old military analyst, there are several keys to dealing with disasters:

1. Plan early, before you do something that puts you in a sub-optimum situation when the disaster hits.

2. Use realistic scenarios -- preferrably actual historical events.

3. Plan for the most likely scenario serious enough to warrant action.

4. Review other scenarios to determine what additional actions or resources are needed.

Katrina is an ideal scenario for those who live in costal areas. Review this thread. How many people included a boat in their planning? All the guns, ammo, and bug-out bags in the world won't help when the water's ten feet deep and rising.

Here in the Ozarks, the most likely scenario is an ice storm with loss of power for several days. People who live deep in the hills like myself must be prepared for a long seige -- and may not be able to get out. My wife and I actually went through two such seiges in the last seven years. Here's what my choices are:

Living conditions:

A power outage will mean no heat -- no matter what you use, you need electricity to circulate it through the house. When I built my house, I put in a full, finished basement, with a Buck stove (airtight wood burning stove.) The earth keeps the basement at around 55 degrees, year round, with no heating or cooling. The Buck stove keeps it toasty warm.

We put our old den furniture down there -- including a hide-a-bed sofa. We added folding tables and other furnture for emergency use.

We are on rural water, which flows by gravity. We've never lost water service, but have a creek and pond if that happens.

We stocked the "machine room" where the utilities come in. There's enough space there for a gun safe, freezer, and shelving units. We keep the following:

Small generator (to power the freezer and refrigerator.)
Coleman dual fuel lanterns
Coleman dual fuel stove for cooking.

Spares for above
gallon of fuel for above

Two weeks canned goods
Hand crank radio
Flashlights and batteries
First aid kit (the wife's a nurse.)
Water purification chemicals

In the shed we keep:

Minimum of 5 gallons of gas (can also use with lantern and cook stove)
Chain saw (we had to cut 20 trees one time on our access road to get out.)
Ax, peavy and other tools

We have nothing but 4X4s -- Chevy blazer and Nissan PU.
In the vehicles we keep:

Spare batteries
Tire chains
12-volt air compressor
Tire sealant.


A safe full -- everything from a flint lock Kentucky rifle to an M1 Garand, plus shotgun and handguns. And lots of ammo.

Heywood Case
December 14, 2006, 12:54 AM
The most likely scenario will be something totally different from what you expect.

Plan accordingly.

For me, that would involve an 870 express with 18" barrel I were so fortunate as to have a choice. I suppose I'd want to hang onto the revolver too, which is an S&W M65. But the choice of firearms is way down on my list of priorities for this kind of planning.

It does seem to me that the topic is more important now than it has been for quite a while.


Mountaineers, climbers, and other serious outdoor adventure types know - borrowing an old, currently-little-used expression -"to keep a weather eye out", especially when they're way up high or in some other very exposed condition (e.g., overnight bivouac on a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall)...

If you wait until you're halfway up a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall to check the weather forecast, your choice of firearms will be the least of your problems.

(5.11c is a very difficult grade of climbing, best understood as meaning you will not even get off the ground unless you spend more time climbing than most of the people here spend shooting)


December 14, 2006, 01:54 AM
Rifle: AK-47, Chinese Type 56 with bayonet
Pistol: LeMat
Alternate: Da Dao (Chinese war sword, used with fearsome effectiveness against Japanese imperialist troops from 1937-1945)

December 14, 2006, 02:01 AM
I live in ca so an earthquake would most likly be my SHTF. I would just stay home or at work and wait it out. Plenty of bottled water and food to keep me and famliy going for about 2 months. Water i might run out of in 3 weeks, but i have a filter so i would just head to a park and get some water there, or beach.

Guns what ever i had on me at the time. See my sig to see what i have.

off shore bank account? Not needed.
First aid skills? Yes more then most
Passport? Yes
Friends in other countries? No but i dont plan on leaving the USA
Basic mechanic skills to keep the heap running? Worked in a mechanic shop so yes
How 'bout off road driving skills? Yes but i would not be driving off road in a SHTF, i would be walking, or flying
Got a pair of boots/shoes you could walk 10 miles in without a blister? 30 miles? Yes, can run 12 or more miles in acouple hours with out a break. On the Xcountry highschool team.

plus i can weld and work with leather.

December 14, 2006, 02:10 AM
Canned food, and lots of it. Solar powered battery charger, bottled water.

Guns? Pistol and carbine is same caliber.

December 14, 2006, 02:27 AM

The most likely disaster scenarios involve social disorder in the wake of a natural disaster or pandemic flu. The epidemiologists I recently had the pleasure to work with are taking the flu threat very seriously.
10% chance of a nasty mutation in the next 2 years was the figure I heard.

In either situation, I'm waiting out the chaos at home comfortably seated on my pile of ammo cans.

December 14, 2006, 03:22 AM
If you wait until you're halfway up a 5.11c, 15-pitch granite wall to check the weather forecast, your choice of firearms will be the least of your problems.Hey John, I agree.

Actually, that's related to my point.

My point was:

1) Don't rely on the weather forecast. They can be wrong. Be prepared for anything. Even if the forecast is for warm and sunny, pack for cold and rainy.

2) While you're climbing that 5.11c (a metaphor for modern life), as you are pushing yourself up that more than vertical rock using toe holds on nubbins, clinging to > 90* granite, groping for cracks or tiny bumps that could help you keep from tumbling off backward (only to hope your belayer can catch you before you fall 8 pitches to your death in case you unzip those anchors) ... yeah, while you're doing that, every once in a while, take a look at the horizon to see if there are storms brewing (a metaphor for global changes).

"On belay."

"Belay on."

December 14, 2006, 03:49 AM
I have to agree with those who say that in a SHTF situation, 50 lbs of weapons and ammo isn't the best choice.

Weapons are important, but frankly if you get into a firefight you're probably screwed.

I've been following the "prepping" hobby for a while, and interestingly one of the likely major natural-SHTF situations, the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, makes many preppers' SHTF plans and property purchase choices questionable... many assumed that retreating to the interior was the best option. Wyoming, Montana... and yes, Colorado. If the YC goes, it will be the opposite.

Anyway, yes a pistol and rifle or shotgun are important... but so is food, water and shelter, and the ability to move it on foot or by vehicle, preferably both. Don't forget family members and pets... Katrina forced some people to make hard choices about Fluffy.

I have bug-in options at the house and I have bug-out options for my truck and on foot. All are based on how much warning I have, everything from "run out of the house in your PJs" to an hour or more of lead time.

BTW: It's amazing how little you can reasonably expect to carry on foot.

EDIT: Also it's important to discriminate between SHTF and TEOTWAWKI. People have different definintions, but for me anything where I can expect to be able to buy/ aquire coffee regularly at some point in the future is SHTF, TEOTWAWKI is when I can't expect to aquire new coffee in the forseable future (more than a year).

Prepping for SHTF is fairly easy... life will eventually return to normal, you just have to outlast it.
Prepping for TEOTWAWKI is more of a lifestyle, involves learning antiquated skills which will PROBABLY never really be put to the test, and may make your relatives and neighbors think you're nuts.

OTOH, if you're ready for TEOTWAWKI then you're ready for any type of SHTF.

Spreadfire Arms
December 14, 2006, 03:56 AM
HMMurdock wrote:

That trusty AR-15 that you can't find replacement parts for?

Okay, but you picked an Springfield M1A instead? i think AR parts are much easier to get than M14 parts.


December 14, 2006, 03:58 AM
BTW: It's amazing how little you can reasonably expect to carry on foot.Tank,

So true.

I've walked in big CO wilderness for 16 days carrying 60 lb,
but only because we had the second half's food brought in with llamas.

60 lbs will slow you down.

If TSHTF, and I was trying to walk out of it with 60 lbs,
to get northward past Portland, then Seattle towards Canada ... <mind boggles>

Revised firearms list:

* one handgun (either an airweight .38 or heavier 9mm)
* one long gun (this is where it gets tougher. Would I want a small game caliber (.22LR) for camp meat,
a .30-30 for large game and 2-legged predators, or a shotgun for the latter? Not sure yet.... :scrutiny: )

December 14, 2006, 11:50 AM

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