anybody read Martin van Creveld's book "the transformation of war"?


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Tokugawa
August 21, 2006, 09:31 PM
Heard about this guy from Robert Kaplan's article "The coming anarchy".(also a recomended read) Van Creveld's take on the future of war is an amazingly prophetic gaze into the future, as it was written in 1991.

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longeyes
August 21, 2006, 09:59 PM
Links?

What's his thesis?

Tokugawa
August 21, 2006, 10:26 PM
The gist is that conventional military force will become impotent in the face of low intensity conflict. His prediction of future warfare is a much closer to home conflict similar in many ways to tribal warfare.
He said that every single guerrilla war since the forties has been successful for the insurgent parties, except for the much touted british success in malaya.
He emphasised that the old rational, conventional reasons to fight a war-the self interest of the state etc, were irrelevant to modern low intensity conflict. i.e., Seirra Leone, the lords resistance army, hizbollah, numerous narco terrorists, etc.
The most interesting point was he felt in no way was the US immune from this breakdown, stating that in the past, it was relatively easy for ,say, France to export war to Algeria, but very difficult for Algeria to bring war to French soil.
This is changing fast as we have seen.
The most remarkable thing about his book is the way recent events have born out his predictions in 1991.
The article " the coming anarchy" by Kaplan is a good read also,availaible on line. I think I have read most of his books, he is a travel/political writter from the Michael Yon camp, one of the only journalists to travel with the muj in afganistan in the 70's. He has written about south asia, africa, he wrote a book called "surrender or starve" about the sudan-somalia-etrea-ethiopia conflicts way before the recent concern about Darfur. The MSM makes it seem like this is a new development, Kaplan was writting about it in the mid 90's.

longeyes
August 22, 2006, 12:04 AM
"As history since Hiroshima shows, the best, perhaps the only, way to curb war is to deter it with such overwhelming force as to turn it from a struggle into suicide. The best way to mitigate it is to use all possible means to bring it to a speedy end. I think both Clausewitz and Sun Tzu would agree on these points."

~M. van Creveld

Stephen Ewing
August 22, 2006, 12:29 AM
Haven't read that one, but if I've got my Van Crevelds straight, he wrote a pretty good book on logistics. Not the best I've ever read, but it was tolerable.

Take care,

Zundfolge
August 22, 2006, 12:53 AM
Here's "The Coming Anarchy" (http://dieoff.org/page67.htm)
Warning ... annoying audio embedded in page

Fred Fuller
August 22, 2006, 10:35 AM
Tok,

Take a look at http://www.d-n-i.net/second_level/4gw_continued.htm .

lpl/nc

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