North Korea performs first nuclear test...


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FTF
October 8, 2006, 11:57 PM
The world as we know it has officially changed.

Breaking news link... sure it will change...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15190745/

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Biker
October 9, 2006, 12:14 AM
Yup, it will change. In any case, there's nothing we can do about it.
Ideas?

Biker

Eightball
October 9, 2006, 12:18 AM
“The nuclear test is a historic event that brought happiness to the our military and people,” KCNA said.Yes, I'm sure the millions of people who are starving are just thrilled that the money for their food for the next 6 years just got spent on a warhead so N.Korea could just see our reaction.

My question is, what took so long? I mean, c'mon, everyone knew the question was "when?", not "if".

FTF
October 9, 2006, 12:19 AM
We could have done something about it.... but I guess those types of ideas would be too 'unpopular'

Ideas?

Encourage Japan to begin it's own nuclear program in order to hopefully entice them to eliminate each other.

Engage in 6 party talks to ensure that these dangerous weapons that they obviously have enough of to test them, are kept in safe and secure locations... free from would be terrorist buyers.

Initiate a large-scale military strike, up to and including nuclear weapons to eliminate this threat.

On another hand, the USGS hasn't reported any seismic activity on the NK/SK peninsula... this might all be a big hoax on the part of NK... somehow I doubt it. Wonder why the South Koreans would report it before U.S intelligence does... I KNOW that we would know the second it happened... or else I wouldn't trust our system for ****.

offthepaper
October 9, 2006, 12:24 AM
Hard to say with that nut case in charge. Even the Chinese have cooled greatly toward him, after seeing just how loose a cannon he is.; It's not in their best interest to have an unpredictable head case that makes many of his country decisions on some twisted logic. Shame they don't have some sort of AD....:evil:

Lucky
October 9, 2006, 12:28 AM
I have to ask; why do you believe them? Until US or Chinese or Russian or IAEA sources can confirm it, I'd NOT believe them. It's decades-old technology that can detect if a nuclear explosion has occured, through seismic or radiation sources, in an airplane or on the other side of the world.

Oh, wait, "there was no radioactive leakage from the site". I guess that means no-one can verify it happened because there was no leakage, riiiight.

I suggest you consider this to be BS, until proven otherwise.

hammer4nc
October 9, 2006, 12:30 AM
This'll take the media attention off Foley-gate.:uhoh:

brerrabbit
October 9, 2006, 12:30 AM
Have japan begin a nuclear program?

Think on this, how many years has Japan gotten most of their power from nuclear power plants. How much reclaimed plutonium do they have from normal conversion of U-238 in the reactors. They pioneered the pebble bed reactors that run on plutoniom.

I doubt if Japan has nuclear weapons today. I would be willing to bet that they could have several finished weapons within 12 hours.

China IMHO is going to be the country to watch. They may feel obligated to act over this.

Sylvan-Forge
October 9, 2006, 12:31 AM
KJI better hope they don't turn about and drop right on his head should he think to use them.

<strategically places banana peel in KJI's house> :neener:

FTF
October 9, 2006, 12:32 AM
I've already said

On another hand, the USGS hasn't reported any seismic activity on the NK/SK peninsula... this might all be a big hoax on the part of NK... somehow I doubt it. Wonder why the South Koreans would report it before U.S intelligence does... I KNOW that we would know the second it happened... or else I wouldn't trust our system for ****.

:)

Sure, it could be fake... it's only being reported by South AND North Korean news. Why would North Korea report that it conducted a nuclear test if it didn't? Maybe it was a fizzle or something. Regardless, it should be an interesting lesson on news reporting. Luckily, none of the news that i have been watching has jumped all over it... just speculative so far....

WickedXD
October 9, 2006, 12:35 AM
NOT GOOD....not good at all.

CornCod
October 9, 2006, 12:41 AM
Oh heck, anybody can build an a-bomb. Trying to control the spread of 1940's era military technology is impossible in this day and age. People tend to exaggerate the threat of North Korea. North Korea just wants to be left alone. Over the years, the political climate has changed in South Korea to the extent that they resent America's aggressive anti-North Korean stance.

If the Japanese feel nervous, the US should rennounce the post-WW2 agreements with Japan over the use of nuclear arms. Let the Japs have the bomb and they can handle it, not us. The benighted land of North Korea is not worth the life of one American soldier or sailor. We have to resist the hysterical voices that regard every inch of the globe as being of vital US security interest.

RNB65
October 9, 2006, 12:42 AM
CNN is reporting that the US military believes that some type of nuclear test was conducted. They have some seismic readings indicating that some type of underground detonation took place.

FTF
October 9, 2006, 12:45 AM
WHY is this taking so long for the US to confirm????

Now the USGS is saying they heard 'something'....

Man... can the US tell if ANYONE uses a nuclear weapon or not? Can't we tell the difference? You can't tell me that the government and president didn't have at least 100 different canned responses to questions like this. Why hold on to the info? If they can't detect an underground nuclear test in a known site why should we trust them to detect any weapon launch at all?

It's pretty much a confirmation at this point according to me... I'm just pissed at the slow US response.... lets all let NK think we're this slow to react. Our supposed missle shield won't do crap if we don't know if they launch them until 2 hours later.

Gewehr98
October 9, 2006, 12:45 AM
We (Uncle Sam) have damned good methods to do so. Trust me. The agency's big gray/white bird will be winging it's way if it really happened.

Until then, keep 'yer seats. When the State Department or White House get on the airwaves and say something, then worry about a North Korean nuclear test. Otherwise, it was a sub-critical weapons effect test, or an HE package sans fissionables, both of which can make a seismic signature, albeit with a very small (sub-kiloton) yield.

Resume Chicken Little squawking in 3, 2, 1... :scrutiny:

another person
October 9, 2006, 12:47 AM
USA, NK, SK, China, maybe Japan: WWIII?

cslinger
October 9, 2006, 12:48 AM
Resume Chicken Little squawking in 3, 2, 1...

Snicker, thats kind of what I was thinking.:D

Folks there are other countries and people with access to many nuclear weapons that worry me more then KJI. Remeber that there is a culture of sabre rattling etc. there.

Chris

FTF
October 9, 2006, 12:53 AM
China now reports NK has tested one.

I agree that it could just have been the HE package, which could account for the lack of major seismic activity, and would really give them a good test as far as their ability to actually detonate what they have... they would just dig that core out of the ground and see how it compressed... or however they work those things.

Oh well, I'm not that worried about it.. I'm sure everything will be the same tomorrow. It's not like you couldn't buy one given enough resources... probably even from US! Interesting story to watch though, and YES our world will most defintely change as a result... I don't like it, but I do like being a witness to history.. even though it may eventually destroy us all.

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 12:57 AM
A South Korean official said an explosion had been detected in the north-east of North Korea, measuring 3.5 on the Richter scale.

From BBC. There is also now confirmation that KIGAM, the geological assessment agency of South Korea, has detected a seismic event of magnitude 3.5 at the test site.

Crap.

Macpherson
October 9, 2006, 12:58 AM
Kim Jong Il is the Terell Owens of the international world. He does crazy things and the world media fawns and gasps and hypes and pontificates for weeks afterwards. I say stop giving him the attention he craves, and stop legitimizing his nutbaggery. Maybe they tested the bomb, maybe they didn't; but since no one has proved him wrong, he created yet another international stir possibly by doing nothing at all. Mr. Il likes to rattle his saber, but at the end of the day he will be facing down US and a whole lot of other countries' guns if he tries to do much.

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 01:03 AM
Keep in mind that this could be provocation for CHINA to strike them, too...they don't want them as a neighbor with nukes, and they already called a test "unacceptable".

This could get...interesting.

FTF
October 9, 2006, 01:03 AM
How am I a troll?

And why wouldn't he face down the barrels of dozens of countries when none have really even cared that he's been developing them for years? Why has nobody made the least amount of effort to even stop him? Even if he did stage a test, we know that NK has them regardless. This is simply posturing and announcing to the world that their little lackluster bassackwards country is now on par with the worlds largest superpowers... and none of us can stop them.... sounds like a good example for everyone else out there... iran.. cough...

US NOW CONFIRMS... an hour later. Good job guys...

400 kt weapon. Nice. Wonder what the street price is on one of those babies.

Gewehr98
October 9, 2006, 01:07 AM
"Somebody set us up the bomb!" :D

The DPRK is a seismically active region of the world, not withstanding all the tunneling that Kim Jong Il has his lemmings accomplish, the dam building, and all the other explosives he just can't seem to get enough of, including the Taepo Dong missiles that never quite reach their intended targets.

South Korea is also on a hair-trigger war footing, and even a bumblebee fart from north of the DMZ tends to send them into conniption fits.

Sit back, take a deep breath, and let the story either gel or dissolve. We'll know soon enough whether it was the real thing, maybe decoupled from bedrock in that abandoned coal mine, or a weapons effect test sans good stuff.

evan price
October 9, 2006, 01:09 AM
"It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it."



Yeah, right!

Why am I not believing that line??


http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/asiapcf/10/08/korea.nuclear.test/

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 01:09 AM
Um...U.S. officials have already confirmed.

taliv
October 9, 2006, 01:12 AM
a stunning success for frmr prez Carter

Erinyes
October 9, 2006, 01:14 AM
400kt? That ain't a simple gun-type U235 A-bomb...

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 01:15 AM
400kt, that's it?

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 01:17 AM
a stunning success for frmr prez Carter

Because the complete and total ignoring of Crazy Kim's flailing for the past five years hasn't had any effect. :rolleyes:

You know, at some point, when there's a desparate grasp to blame current policy failures on a loooooong past democrat president, pick one, any one, random, to blame, it just becomes a sort of sad humor.

I consider the past five years to be something like cops judging who's a threat.

N. Korea: "I have a gun! I'm crazy! I'll shoot you!"

Cop 1: "Hm. You think Iraq sitting over there might be fixing to get hold of a gun?"

N. Korea: "I HAVE A GUN! LOOK!"

Cop 2: "You know, maybe they are. If that Korea guy jumping around would shut up, we could look harder at Iraq."

N. Korea: "I'm going to SHOOT YOU NOW!"

Cop 1: "You know, I think Iraq might be planning to get a gun sometime in the future. Get them! Take them down!"

N. Korea: *BANG!*

Cop 2: "HEY! That Korea guy has a gun! When did he get that?"

FTF
October 9, 2006, 01:17 AM
Hiroshima was 15kt and there was a big party afterwards insulting it's laughable yield. 66,000 dead can't be wrong!

The North Koreans love those tunnels too!

jeepmor
October 9, 2006, 01:29 AM
This'll take the media attention off Foley-gate.

Right-o, maybe just another misdirection to once again move our corrupt Republican morons off the front page. This is a pretty common theme with this administration. Spinning aside....

I'd be more worried about China's response than ours if I was whack job Kim. The Chinese publicly execute people and charge their family for the bullets. I'd be far more worried about China.

jeepmor

RNB65
October 9, 2006, 01:31 AM
Carl Rove and Ken Mehlman are probably smiling ear to ear. :)

Phyphor
October 9, 2006, 01:35 AM
despite all the "left coast" bull****, I think NK would cease to exist if they did ever manage to sling a functioning warhead over here.....


And yea, from what I've read, it's not a 'gun type... ' its a 'sphere of plutonium surrounded by plastic explosive' type,

dunno for sure, but I am waiting for info.....

Macpherson
October 9, 2006, 01:38 AM
FTF,

I meant to imply that Kim Jong Il was the troll, not you. Apologies for the misunderstanding.

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 01:39 AM
Just aim for the bay area, Kim. It'll all be over soon.

Gewehr98
October 9, 2006, 01:51 AM
Taepo Dong? Yeah, right.

Having a big kaboom is one thing. Getting it to the target is another. Pakistan's delivery system for their nuclear weapon involved rolling it out the tailgate of a C-130 Hercules directly overy Bombay (now Mumbay). Pretty much a one-way trip for that aircrew, nicht wahr?

If it's true that the DPRK wasted most of their enriched uranium on this one weapons test, then once they extract more from those spent fuel rods in Yongbyon, their most reliable delivery system will be a barge, right into Tokyo Harbor.


I'm really curious, who is that unnamed government official everybody's referring to, and why won't he reveal his name and office? If it's the real thing, we're going to hear about it soon enough from State and White House. If not, he's got no business having diarrhea of the mouth without permission.

BTW, FTF, keep your eye tuned on THR, we're a very diverse group here. Myself, I just retired from the agency that's responsible for tracking and characterizing nuclear explosions worldwide. Suffice it to say I have over 2,000 hours of time flying the very airplanes that go get the samples afterwards. One hour is not a bad thing when all the seismic data, and there's oodles of it from P-waves to surface waves, is being exhaustively analyzed by the alert team. ;)

You're looking for a signature waveform like these, a sudden onset and then tapering off:

http://www.iris.edu/news/IRISnewsletter/fallnews/GIFS/vw.fig.art.GIF

The_Shootist
October 9, 2006, 01:52 AM
We could always get the B-52's warmed up on Diego Garcia to "fine tune" their missle sites(ie bomb'em back into the stone age).

Oh wait? You mean they are already IN the stone age??? Damn :scrutiny:

Justin
October 9, 2006, 01:54 AM
The nooze is reporting that the test took place near Kilchu City.

A few days ago, the blog Arms Control Wonk (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com) placed the tentative location somewhat NW of Kilchu (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/1167/nork-nuke-test-site).

Click here to download and open ACW's Google Earth .kmz file with location markers. (http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/file_download/50)

If you don't have Google Earth already, you really ought to download it. (http://earth.google.com/)

tellner
October 9, 2006, 01:55 AM
I love it. Blame Carter. He had four years of a recalcitrant Congress thirty years ago. But somehow it's his fault. Ignore the fact that Rummy and Dick and Dubya shot the military bolt in a useless quagmire of Iraq. Ignore the fact that they appeased Kim more than any combination of Democrats. Ignore the fact that they fumbled any sort of diplomatic or economic alternative badly. Nope. No matter what happens you have to blame the Democrat.

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 01:59 AM
400kt is way beyond the yield of a uranium collision device. This had to have been a plutonium implosion core type, which is worrying, as that's more difficult to make. Any uneven forces...any...and you just get a plastic explosive detonation and a contaminated site from the spray of plutonium.

Also, here it is. From USGS...


http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Maps/10/130_40.gif


Earthquake Details
Magnitude 4.2 (Light)
# Date-Time Monday, October 9, 2006 at 01:35:27 (UTC)
= Coordinated Universal Time
# Monday, October 9, 2006 at 10:35:27 AM
= local time at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location 41.311N, 129.114E
Depth 0 km (~0 mile) set by location program
Region NORTH KOREA
Distances 70 km (45 miles) N of Kimchaek, North Korea
90 km (55 miles) SW of Chongjin, North Korea
180 km (110 miles) S of Yanji, Jilin, China
385 km (240 miles) NE of PYONGYANG, North Korea
Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 14.9 km (9.3 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters Nst= 9, Nph= 9, Dmin=369.4 km, Rmss=1.13 sec, Gp= 97,
M-type=body magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID ustqab

Lucky
October 9, 2006, 01:59 AM
Holy **** so it's confirmed? How big of a SHTF is this going to be? Limited to the peninsula, Asia, or what? Can we expect China to copy the Iraq example and make a pre-emptive invasion? They have been building a fancy army, would the generals push to use it???

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 02:03 AM
How quickly can you put on your JSLIST? WHAT? You don't have a JSLIST? Eh, well, most of my BN (sans me) is going to SK in a month. We'll see what changes.

dragongoddess
October 9, 2006, 02:06 AM
DATE LAT LON MAG DEPTH REGION
9-Oct 41.31 129.11 4.2 0.0 NORTH KOREA

Gewehr98
October 9, 2006, 02:07 AM
But the U.S. strategy vs. DPRK is a good one, all things considered. It's hardly an appeasement strategy. We're essentially forcing China to clean up their own back yard, since they're the ones that seem to have the best dialogue and most to lose with the neighborhood junkyard dog. We've even said so in about that many words - no bilateral talks, you want to discuss the issue, your neighbors to the north, south, and east have a vested interest and will be involved, period. China knows this, and even told the U.S. and her allies about the event 20 minutes prior to this test. Suffice it to say, they're not terribly pleased by the kaboom.

Now that North Korea has essentially slapped China in the face, sit back and watch the fireworks. U.N. sanctions, while previously meaningless to rogue states like the DPRK, may take root tomorrow when Japan proposes that China curtail or stop energy exports to the DPRK, as suggested tonight by a few senators and congressmen.

In the meantime, assuming they burned all their enriched plutonium in this one test, North Korea will need time to finish reprocessing all those spent fuel rods at Yongbyon, and they still need time to perfect a delivery system for whatever portable device they come up with, since the Taepo Dong ain't gonna cut it in its present configuration.

dragongoddess
October 9, 2006, 02:10 AM
Well if we get lucky the morning papers will tell us about the invasion of North Korea by China.

Don't Tread On Me
October 9, 2006, 02:18 AM
Well, at least they can't deliver this weapon. Although, it could be made portable by vehicle.


Do not assume they used all their plutonium in a test. No nation uses all their plutonium in a single test. First, a sufficient amount is made to 1] test 2] build into various prototypes 3] save for a final weapons package.


While I doubt this will lead to war...cutting off their oil or using some sort of strong sanctions to cause the regime to collapse might lead to war. I don't think this regime is going to collapse silently. If they're going to lash out, it's better they do it without nukes, than with nukes. That might mean we pre-emptively strike them and strike them really hard.

Instead, there won't be strong enough sanctions...and chances are we'll see a couple of decades worth of nuclear deterrence with North Korea.

thexrayboy
October 9, 2006, 02:18 AM
North Korea and nukes. The chance that they have succeeded in making one is good. The chances they will make more are just as good. The probablity they will use them against us directly? Minimal. Those in charge in North Korea are not stupid. Crazy maybe but not stupid. Using a minimal nuclear force against the US, Japan, etc. would virtually guarantee that we would wipe them off the map.

What they will do is build nukes and give them to terrorists to use against us.
If a bomb they build is successfully used against us or our allies the physical evidence of who built it disappears. That gives them plausible deniability. We must fear the NK nuke program for that reason.

RNB65
October 9, 2006, 02:23 AM
Hang on boys, put your BOB's away. Don't run to the hills just yet. The news reports now are that this wasn't a very big explosion and the test appears to have been a bit of a fizzle. No where near the 400KT they were hoping to achieve.

Heck, it may have been a cave full of TNT and they just want everyone to think it was a nuke. I certainly wouldn't put it past them to fake a test just for the heck of it. If you tell the NK's not to do something, they're going to find some way to do it even if they have to fake it.

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 02:27 AM
RNB, can you cite a source for that information? I'm looking at the seismic data, which seems to confirm a near-surface detonation sufficient to cause a 4.2 magnitude seismic event.

gc70
October 9, 2006, 02:29 AM
If a bomb they build is successfully used against us or our allies the physical evidence of who built it disappears.Any nuke bears the signature of the reactor that created the radioactive material.

Gewehr98
October 9, 2006, 02:31 AM
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,218699,00.html

Not quite 400kt, unless they somehow seriously decoupled it from the bedrock.

Sit back, relax, and let the story either gel or dissolve. The MREs and thyroid iodine treatments will keep just fine for later.

Byron Quick
October 9, 2006, 02:31 AM
It's pretty much a confirmation at this point according to me... I'm just pissed at the slow US response.... lets all let NK think we're this slow to react. Our supposed missle shield won't do crap if we don't know if they launch them until 2 hours later.

If I've realtime intelligence on you and you do something dumb and I react immediately...guess what? I just told you how good my intelligence is and give you the chance to hide better in the future. Don't look now but that would be a stupid thing to do. You don't reveal intelligence capabilities to enemies without a very good reason. This would not be one. The Allies took casualties in WWII to protect intelligent sources-big casualties both civilian and military.

If a bomb they build is successfully used against us or our allies the physical evidence of who built it disappears. That gives them plausible deniability. We must fear the NK nuke program for that reason.

Completely false to fact. The isotopic fractions in the fallout can tell exactly which reactor produced the fissile material in the nuclear device. the xray boy-research is a good thing as it will prevent embarassing yourself.

RNB65
October 9, 2006, 02:32 AM
I'm watching CNN and Fox and I've heard at least two reports that said that a mag 4.2 would not equate to 400kt and it appears to be much weaker than what they had hoped to achieve.

Of course, the news reports could be wrong. The boys in the military who know the truth aren't on CNN or Fox.

Manedwolf
October 9, 2006, 02:35 AM
I go by the official releases. The news people are the ones who talk about "automatic glock revolvers" used in shootings, so I tend not to believe what they say, since they don't understand anything anyway and just read what's on the teleprompter. The days of news anchor people able to intelligently converse on the subject are long gone.

gunsmith
October 9, 2006, 02:50 AM
"eh, perhaps they'll do us a favor, drive one into LA over the Mexican border.
Kill two birds with one stone, take care of border problem and improve the quality of TV and movies"

Glockfan.45
October 9, 2006, 02:55 AM
Well if we get lucky the morning papers will tell us about the invasion of North Korea by China.


Dont count on it. The last time China tried to invade a neighbor (Vietnam) they got their butts handed to them, and were sent back home in less than a week. North Korea sports quite an impressive military. While they dont have the means to project their power, I would hate to have to take a fight to them. Any actions China takes against N.K will come in the form of trade embargos.

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 02:57 AM
Me thinks the NK's would repel the RC's.
Short of a nuclear attack that is.

Lucky
October 9, 2006, 03:12 AM
China would punch throuh NK very quickly. They have as modern an army as any other country on the planet, and larger than most.

Eightball
October 9, 2006, 03:17 AM
"Somebody set us up the bomb!"If I would've had a drink in my mouth, I would've spewed.

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 03:21 AM
2.25 million Chinese versus 1.1 million N.Koreans on there own soil. Do you know what every N.Korean dime gets spent on? There's a reason we left half a century ago and haven't gone back.

thexrayboy
October 9, 2006, 03:27 AM
gc70 states

"Any nuke bears the signature of the reactor that created the radioactive material."

You are correct in that isotopic signatures can be traced. However all physical evidence aside from that will be vaporized. Tracing isotopic signatures to determine which reactor created the material only works if you have physical access to the reactor or its documentation. In this case its
just not gonna happen. Again "plausible deniability.

For reference read the article at:

http://www.alumni.berkeley.edu/Alumni/Cal_Monthly/September_2005/COVER_STORY-_Berkeleys_Big_Bang_Project_.asp

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 03:29 AM
CNN just said they should have enough left for 6-12 more of the same size, or one really big one:what:

Lucky
October 9, 2006, 03:31 AM
Johnsonrip;
We left because it was a UN mandate. When the SK's were being beat, the US and several other countries, including Canada, came in and kicked the NK's back. When the NK's were losing hard the Chinese came in (after warning they would, yes yes). When the Chinese AND the NK's were getting beaten badly, they called for 'peace talks'. Because it was a UN mission we HAD to go to the talks, instead of finishing the job.

xrayboy, intead of plausible deniability think 'process of elimination'. If you have access to every reactor EXCEPT that one.

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 03:35 AM
South Korea is now a "Nuclear Free Nation Zone".

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 03:38 AM
They keep repeating that it's not a weapon, "it hasn't been weaponized". But a stripped reciever...

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 03:42 AM
Oh, and Seoul is about 25 miles south of the border. They could definitely hit that if they were crazy enough. Seeing as they spend 25% of their GNP on their military, yeah they're pretty freaking crazy.

Liberal Gun Nut
October 9, 2006, 04:00 AM
Confirmed or not confirmed? The reason it is a bit tricky to confirm or not confirm it is that there are a whole range of possible energy releases. Some bombs go off full-power, some are fizzles. This could be somewhere in that range.

It does sound like it was a bomb, but maybe it was not a complete success.

Don't Tread On Me
October 9, 2006, 04:10 AM
HOLD UP THERE....



They're saying this was the equivalent of 550 tons of TNT.


They could have buried 550 tons of TNT for all we know. Right now on the news, the White House says "seismic event confirmed"...not "nuclear test confirmed"...


BIG difference. That would be one hell of a bluff if they faked a nuclear test!

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 04:23 AM
Especially if someone called the bluff...

And yeah, that's pretty small.

M1911Owner
October 9, 2006, 04:36 AM
"550 tons of TNT". That sounds awfully close to the English translation of "500 metric tons". Which sounds a whole lot like a wild-ass guess.

If that number is even close, though, that was indeed a rather puny nuke.

LeoC
October 9, 2006, 04:41 AM
Since I'm living in China for the moment, I'll let you guys know if I see anything on the TV. News reports and TV Dramas are used by the government to influence public opinion and drum up support for the government. This is very telling because it will be a good indication of what the Chinese gov. plans to do if it starts showing N. Korea in a negative light on the news.

North Korea won't admit it, but China is supplying it with lifeblood in terms of trade and aid. Even if it continues selling weapons to Iran, I doubt North Korea can survive without China's support. This inciddent puts China in the global spotlight, and China will try to put on a strong showing. I think the likelihood of China kicking out it's bastard stepson N. Korea is high.

50caliber123
October 9, 2006, 04:46 AM
wasn't the first atomic bomb the equivalent of thousands tons of TNT? 550 seems awfully small

Skywarp
October 9, 2006, 04:48 AM
All this talk about Korea is making me hungry.


I'll hitup the Korean BBQ forlunch tomarrow...

jrhines
October 9, 2006, 04:51 AM
Yeah - 550 tons is very small. I seem to remember in my dark past US touching off something like that as a pre-test to Trinity. Stacked up a huge pile of TNT and shot it just to see what that kind of shock would do to our 1940's instrumentation. A sub-kilo nuke would be very useful and most likely very small.

dm1333
October 9, 2006, 04:56 AM
"eh, perhaps they'll do us a favor, drive one into LA

Actually, I don't think LA is within range of the missiles they own, but San Francisco is. Kim Jong Il, please just wait until May when I have moved to Michigan and then have at it. My "tired of California" quotient is at an all time high this weekend.

Liberal Gun Nut
October 9, 2006, 04:57 AM
They're saying this was the equivalent of 550 tons of TNT.

Right, either they used a whole heap of TNT (or ANFO more likely) to fake a bomb, or it was a partial fizzle. They carefully sealed the mine shaft so there would be no gas release so sensors won't pick up any radiation from it.

Oh Kim Jong Il you are a wily one!

But my guess is it's a partial success and a partial fizzle of a bomb.

mike101
October 9, 2006, 05:04 AM
Here's a wild idea (he said, as he donned his flame suit). How about a trade embargo against the Chinese, until they put their dog back on it's leash.

The US is the biggest market for Chinese goods. At least half of the consumer electronics in the world today, are manufactured in China. There's a better than 50/50 chance that the Japanese TV you are staring at, was made in China. Much of the clothing sold at K-mart and Wallyworld is made in China. The Japanese economy would be affected, so they too would put some pressure on China.

That sounds unfair to the Chinese, doesn't it? Well, it is. But let's just say it was Mexico who was messing around with nukes, with an eye on taking over the rest of Latin America. Who do you think the world would turn to, to clean up their own back yard? Of course, the Mexicans would never do anything like that. I'm just using Mexico as an example because of it's geographical location.

Now, don't get excited. Of course, a trade embargo against the Chinese is way too extreme, at this point. I'm just trying to illustrate that if the world, especially the US and Japan, put enough pressure on China, maybe they will take care of NK for us. It is in their own best interest.

I don't think we would actually have to hit them in the wallet. We would just have to make noises like we're thinking about it. :evil:

johnsonrlp
October 9, 2006, 05:20 AM
Well, I've been boycotting Norinco for quite a while. I guess I don't need the rest of the crap they make that badly.

Lucky
October 9, 2006, 05:25 AM
You know how the USA spends more money than it has every year? It's the Chinese who are lending you the money to spend. They have the money to lend you because you buy their products. If you stop buying their products then your citizens have to spend more money to get equivalent products from other places. And then the Chinese won't have the money or the desire to buy your bonds. If the Chinese don't buy your bonds you have to offer more interest to make them internationally competitive, and that means that the average person now has to pay more on their credit card interest rate and their mortgage too. And if they have to pay more then they'll buy less houses and if they buy less houses then the prices will fall, and if the prices fall then the what's called 'the housing bubble' bursts, and when 300 million people's single largest investment crashes it brings a country into a recession or a depression.

So I'd say your plan is bad:)

mike101
October 9, 2006, 05:52 AM
What a revoltin' development this is. From what I understand, the housing bubble has already sprung a pretty sizable leak, but I hear 'ya.

Remember the good old days, when we didn't have a deficit? If you blinked, you might have missed it. :D

GTSteve03
October 9, 2006, 08:12 AM
Well at least we know where the WMDs are now.

Clean97GTI
October 9, 2006, 08:16 AM
All I can say is good for North Korea. At least they have the stones to tell the UN what to do with itself.

1911Tuner
October 9, 2006, 09:15 AM
Quote:

>China IMHO is going to be the country to watch. They may feel obligated to act over this.<
************

I have to agree...but I've got a sneakin' suspicion that the Chinese will talk tough for public consumption whilst snugglin' up to their little Ace in the Hole.
Why not let someone who proves every day that he really IS a nutcase do a bit of their dirty work for'em?

So...let's say that he flings a nuke at the west coast, which prompts a nuclear response from us. China takes great exception at our irradiating the area on their border and launches a retaliatory strike....which brings another retaliation from us, killing countless millions of Chinese peasants (Which they can do without)...which prompts Russia and a couple other antagonists to join them in their "righteous"outrage and their newfound alliance with their Chinese comrades.

The Chinese and the Russians have their excuse to nuke America...which they've been hoping for since 1950 or so...The Chinese population is reduced to manageable levels...and they get to blame it all on a self-proven maniac.
The Chinese then turn North Korea into a big parking lot, which eliminates the loose cannon in their midst AND wrecks the United States. The UN sends
"peacekeepers" to the American mainland...which no doubt would include a large contingent of Chinese and Russian troops...and there ya are.

Wouldn't be the first time that the pawns have been played in order to start a war without makin' the real players look like the instigators.

This can go real bad wrong in quick-time. Yeah...Watch the Sleeping Giant.

Thin Black Line
October 9, 2006, 09:21 AM
Various THR quotes:

400kt? That ain't a simple gun-type U235 A-bomb...
....
Hiroshima was 15kt and there was a big party afterwards insulting it's laughable yield. 66,000 dead can't be wrong!
....
400kt is way beyond the yield of a uranium collision device.
....


http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2395600,00.html

Details of the blast were sketchy. Sergei Ivanov, the Russian Defence Minister, estimated its yield at between five and 15 kilotons, or up to 15,000 tonnes of TNT, making it potentially as powerful as the bomb which devastated the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945.

But an Australian seismology institute put the figure at one kiloton and the Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources said the size of the tremor suggested an explosive force equivalent to 550 tons of TNT - a surprisingly low explosive yield.

"If it was a one kiloton explosion, that would be disappointing small - a completely damp squib. It's very unlikely that they would have designed a bomb to have a yield as small as that," said James Acton, science and technology researcher at Vertic, a non-governmental organisation in the UK that works for nuclear non-proliferation.

The blast makes North Korea the eighth country in the world to openly carry out a nuclear test after the United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, India and Pakistan.



Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't. Anyone remember when NK made an entire
mountain disappear a few years back? I do......

In any case, we had far more missiles and kt-age pointed at us during the
coldwar. Again, regarding a potential enemy this is like going from a platoon
of trained snipers to a thug with a .25 bauer pocket pistol. If he attempts
to use it against the SWAT Team he will be stone cold dead. Period. This
means if NK did use "something" against us, they would be a parking lot
overnight.

Take a moment and breath into a paper bag, go to work this morning, the
world hasn't changed.

Lone_Gunman
October 9, 2006, 09:25 AM
--

Lone_Gunman
October 9, 2006, 09:26 AM
President Bush, the greatest leader of our time, has taken care of Iraq and got that situation under control for us. I am sure he will handle North Korea just as well.

Art Eatman
October 9, 2006, 09:42 AM
Serious, but OT. Take it to APS.

Art

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