NYC Crime


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kengrubb
October 17, 2006, 05:07 PM
Mayor Bloomberg was recently touting how wonderfully safe the Big Apple is with all it's restrictive gun laws. However, things ain't exactly paradise. Methinks I've spotted a bit of trouble that most of us probably already suspected.

NYC is divided into 5 Boroughs: Bronx, Brooklyn, Manhattan, Queens and Staten Island, but the NYPD is divided up into 8 Patrol Boroughs with Brooklyn, Manhattan and Queens each split into a North and South Patrol Borough.

The raw crime stats are available on the NYPD website by Patrol Borough and even Precinct. We all know that crime rates, not raw stats, are a more accurate indicator of crime, and the trick was how to come up with the rates. It took a bit of searching, but I was able to cobble the rates together.

I started with the NYC Department of City Planning Census numbers. They would seem to have more accurate data as U.S. Department of Census now uses the DCP numbers--at least according to the DCP website.

DCP has population stats and maps by Community District. I matched the DCP Community District maps to the NYPD Patrol Borough maps, and it looks like the Patrol Boroughs break cleanly along Community Districts. This gave me the breakdown of which Community Districts were in the North Patrol Borough and which were in the South Patrol Borough of a given Borough.

I pulled in the 2005 DCP Borough population estimates, and extrapolated Patrol Borough population growth from Borough population growth. From there, it's simple arithmetic to come up with Patrol Borough crime rates.

As one can clearly see, there are very sharp divides with a lot of peaks and valleys in NYC crime.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I know. Argue against not should gun control to crime rates be used.
:neener:

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TX1911fan
October 17, 2006, 05:19 PM
As John Lott explains, rates are not as important as seeing what is happening to rates, and then trying to understand why the rates are moving as they are. It seems to me that the rates are declining, if they are, because of increased police action on crime, given that NYC has had pretty restrictive gun laws for decades, but crime rates have only recently been coming down.

RON in PA
October 18, 2006, 03:50 AM
Not quite sure what all this means without reference to previous years or to other juristictions.

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