Pre-Bans status for next 18 months???


May 19, 2003, 08:36 PM
Suppose the count down is on, and so far it looks at least a serious possibility that the A/W ban will sunset without being replaced by permanant legislation.

My question is what's going to happen to pre-ban availability and pre-ban prices in the next 18 months?

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May 19, 2003, 08:54 PM
I think prices will stay the same until its closer to the expiration date of the AWB.

I am not all that certain that many people are really buying $75 - 100 hi caps anymore. Last few gunshows I have been to, I keep seeing the same merchandise over and over. I know a lot of people hear have bought them for high prices, but this really isnt a good cross section of the gun buying public.

If no new legislation has been passed by next summer, I suspect prices are going to start falling. Nobody is going to want 10 yr old hi caps when new ones are just around the corner.

I certainly would not pay $1500-2000 for a pre ban AR right now!

May 19, 2003, 10:22 PM
I think prices will stay where they are for the time being. If the ban sunsets the prices will drop. If the ban doesn't sunset, I think prices will go up again.

May 19, 2003, 10:37 PM
y'all don't think the manufacturers would continue to sell the postban configurations for the current price, and charge more for arms with extra features, do ya?

it shouldn't cost more to include a full capacity magazine
but it could...

May 19, 2003, 10:42 PM
y'all don't think the manufacturers would continue to sell the postban configurations for the current price, and charge more for arms with extra features, do ya?

Nope. Because there's this thing called the free market. There's quite a few manufacturers that currently make law enforcement-only assault weapons and delete features for general consumption. If the ban goes away and one (or two or three) manufacturers tried to increase prices by charging extra for the now-legal features, what do you think would happen? All the other manufacturer's would think "Hey, maybe if I didn't raise my prices I could increase my market share." And most likely, they would get more business.

George Hill
May 19, 2003, 10:46 PM
It's called breaking even. All the cats that made a killing when the AWB took effect are now going to be losing a lot of cash when it ends.

May 20, 2003, 08:28 AM
What really got me thinking about this was Ivanhoe's. Several months back several of us were ordering used NFML G-17 mags from them for $53 (more than a decent price) what we were getting however were brand new FML mags that tended to go for $80-90 at the time.

I think everybody kind of assumed it was a mix-up and they didn't know what they were sending out, but now the same site which has always sold my beloved G-17 hi-caps has said that they are out and will not be getting anymore ever...

Now I think maybe it was not a mistake but that they were "dumping" to not get caught with there pants down. Wondered if we might see something like it from other outlets, relatively cheap prices first, but then none to be found at all..

May 20, 2003, 09:11 AM
Yes, you may be right Blue Duck. People may decide to hedge their bets, and sell hi caps now for $50 instead of at the $75-100 asking price, and figure they will still make about a 3x profit on them now, instead of just having a bunch of unsellable junk next year if the AWB sunsets.

By the way, I bought a few of the mags from Ivanhoes, and mine were all thoroughly used. No more 10 yr old mags for me!

May 20, 2003, 10:16 AM
I am still considering selling my G22 mags so that I can use the money to buy other stuff. And then buy 15 rounders after the ban falls.

But what if it doesn't? :(

May 20, 2003, 10:53 AM
Judgement call I suppose. I am selling off hi-caps I kept when I sold the guns I had them for, and ones I consider to purely be extras. I am using the cash to fund other gun purchases. I will be keeping mags in quantities enough to meet my minimum requirements per gun, which are admittedly a bit higher than most people would consider minimum. If I get stuck with a lot of mags that go from $30-70 each, down to $10-20 each, then so what. I felt the need to have them and still will. So I guess I am saying don't sell anything you will want to have anyway. I would not bet on the ban going away and then find you did not have the mags you wanted.


May 20, 2003, 11:25 AM
Being in CA, the ban won't sunset, we have our own ban and its worse. I paid the high prices and bought before ours went into effect. Those are all I can buy because the Federal ban is less stringent than CA's which doesn't have a sunset clause. For the rest of you, prices will start to drop once the ban's sunset looks good. Then standard mags will rule once again and 10 round mags can be sent to CA. Meantime, I'm keeping the hi-caps I do have, 'cause they're all I will ever have. Besides, my interest in Glocks has waned and I no longer have an AR-15 due CA's AW ban. So it all works out.

May 20, 2003, 05:03 PM
I think pirces have falled a little. Just look in the for sale forum. I think one of three things will happen, either the ban goes away and pre bans are worth $10, it stays, and they are worth more than ever, or a California style ban passes and they cannot be sold. The companies with many pre-bans lose in the first and last situation, so I think prices may fall some before the issue really pops up in congress.

May 20, 2003, 07:25 PM
I don't think the ban going away is going to effect the value of firearms. For example, Bushmaster sells pre & post ban AR configurations for about the same price. While restricted now, these post-ban manufactured "pre-ban" configured rifles can be sold to civilians again next year. The "Made in USA" guns, like the H&K clones, will add the evil features to the guns, but the relative price will remain the same.

The magazine prices may come down some, but other than AR/AK type magazines, where there are already millions around, the prices will still probably be a lot higher than they were before '94.

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