Preban value on September 14th 2004


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Curare
June 2, 2003, 11:34 AM
I've been playing crystal ball while trying to predict what will happen.

AR style rifles--you'd be a fool to buy a preban right now given the current House of Representatives--it might be a $1000 dollar loss.

HK rifles/Steyer AUG/etc--aside from the recent plastic, the good ole HK 91/93 and others will continue to climb in value given the long standing ban on importation.

Mags--the preban mag market will crash.

I'm definitely going to stock up in late 2004 before some evil law will replace the '94 AWB.

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gun-fucious
June 2, 2003, 11:39 AM
i hope that pre ban / post ban will ultimately be just a silly display at the Gun Museum

Maybe an original configured post ban gun will be come a collectable version 50 years from now

Onslaught
June 2, 2003, 12:11 PM
My crystal ball has a pessomistic tint to it...

If AWB sunsets, then my CB predicts that, at least temporarily, the price of AR's will RISE quite a bit. Of course, they won't be as expensive as current pre-ban prices, but the rush to stock up on the goodies that many folks missed out on the first time around should drive AR prices up around $1200 or so, especially for the M4geries.

My little round orb O'glass also says that mag prices will take a LONG time to recover. The only difference is that USED full cap mags will lose their value compared to what they are now, but again, the rush on NEW full cap mags, coupled with the manufacturers knowledge of how much $$ Americans are willing to spend for much roundage will bump the price of magazines up a notch or two. I see Glock factory mags (the mags by which all others are judged) being $39-ish rather than the sub $20's they wen't for in '93.

I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.

DAL
June 2, 2003, 06:33 PM
Onslaught, I wish I could say you are dead wrong, but I find myself agreeing with much of what you said. I don't believe prices will drop overnight, IF we should be so lucky to dodge the AWB being renewed.

Here's my prediction for AR15s: For a while, two different lines will be offered--a pre- and post-ban configuration. The pre-ban config. will of course go for at least $100 higher. After a while, post-ban 15s will be phased out, and pre-bans will stay at the inflated price ad infinitum.

Mags. will come down, but not to pre-ban prices, and it won't happen too quickly.
DAL

natedog
June 2, 2003, 06:38 PM
Will HK rifles (94, 93, etc.) be imported again?

starfuryzeta
June 2, 2003, 07:12 PM
That's what I'd like to know.
Are import companies "gearing-up" for the possibility of the sunset?
If it sunsets, how long before a supply of imports show up on the shelves?
Will the BATFE find some way to keep things from coming into the country, so if the sunset hits, there is still away to "keep the evil out"?
Is there a semi-auto version of the HK G36?:evil:

cratz2
June 2, 2003, 07:18 PM
Personally, I believe the ban will sunset but then something similar will be signed back in at a later date. This will appease the antis and to some extent the pro-Gun side as well. Basically trying to keep as many folks as happy as possible which is after all what politicians do. At least the ones that listen to their advisors.

Lone_Gunman
June 2, 2003, 08:12 PM
Full capacity mags will sell for the same price as 10 round mags do now, including Glock.

I wonder whether some companies, though, will continue to push 10 rounders on "civilians", and post ban configurations also.

Specifically, I could easily see Ruger not making hi cap magazines available for civilian sale.

BlkHawk73
June 2, 2003, 08:19 PM
As far as Hk rifles being allowed after the AWB sunsets, HK supposedly has plans to start a production facility here in the United States. That being done would likely allow the 91s, 93, 94s, to be re-introduced into the civilian market. If they go that route remains to be seen.
Either way, I don't see all the companies jumping to get what is now pre-ban configuration models out. Although all that would be need is to NOT stamp "for LEO/Miliitary use" on them. I think they'll still offer "post-ban" config. models at perhaps a lesser price. same with magazines. I see some companies continueing to manufacter 10 rnders and offer "high-caps" for a higher price. Why not have both?

Mannlicher
June 2, 2003, 08:25 PM
I don't think they will let the AW ban sunset. The price is only going up.

Coltdriver
June 2, 2003, 08:52 PM
I believe the AWB will sunset, the dimocrats will lose more seats as a result of stupidly supporting it in any form up to the election.

And I think pre ban prices will fall to below the floor.

Why buy an old Colt when you can have a brand new AR?

As for my AR I am going to buy a (presumably this will be legal then) 14 inch upper with a flash hider and will add a fully collapse-able stock.

I can't wait!:D

Pat S
June 2, 2003, 11:02 PM
I think it will go away. The Senate will pass it and the House will let it die. But not without people getting involved. It will be an ugly fight with much lying from the Left and the media. It's our job to set it straight and let our legislators know how we feel. If you've never got involved, wrote a letter, made a phone call, sent an email, do it now! This law sets a precedent that any arbitrary feature of a firearm can lead to its future ban. It needs to go away. YOU are the key.

My predictions:

Hi caps will become available for the price of 10 rounders now. There will be a 10 rounder blowout sale at a gun shop near you.

Post ban ARs will go for reduced prices as the demand for the pre-bans goes up.

The gun industry will see a flurry of people buying their previously forbidden products.

But if you don't get involved it will get voted back in and more future bans will follow.

Stay Safe, Pat S

daniel501
June 7, 2003, 07:10 PM
It's looking possible that the ban will not be renewed. If that's the case look for markets to react even before the actual sunset date. It's Econ 101. If you're sitting on a stock of the mags, it behooves you to move them before their fair market value drops. If you wait until new high capacity mags hit the consumer market, you're screwing yourself.

Of course, there's uncertainty, and uncertainty can be assigned a dollar value.

Expect rational sellers to make moderate price cuts well before the sunset date. Mags they previously sold for $60 may go for $40, so they can avoid being stuck with a quantity of $20 mags sometime after the sunset when all returns to normal.

I haven't seen it happening yet, but I'm sure it won't wait for September '04. Anyone see downward price movement already?

Dan

Hkmp5sd
June 7, 2003, 08:01 PM
I don't think they will let the AW ban sunset.

The AW ban will die and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. The only thing they can do is to create and pass a new ban.

I think the prices are going to stay exactly where they are now with new production postban rifles. The most common firearm effected by the AW ban is the AR rifles. Other than the threaded barrel w/ bayonet lug, there is no difference between the preban and postbans. Collapsible stocks are already plentiful, as are the "preban" barrels.

Even now, "LEO Only" ARs cost essentially the same as their postban civilian counterparts. Only difference after the ban is the "LEO Only" part is meaningless.

If H&K does start making US made rifles to get around the import ban, those will most likely be very expensive.

Mr. Chitlin
June 7, 2003, 10:57 PM
I think that there will always be a market for 10 rounders. Doesn't Kalifornication and a few other states have a 10 round mag law?? Maybe Mass, and NJ or something? There will be a market for 10 rounders in those states, even if the ban is not renewed.

Snaps
June 9, 2003, 02:46 AM
I don't have aCB so my guess is that postban will stay about the same in price while the new preban style(no longer banned) will go for a few hundred more. Mags will go for abotu the price prebans go now and won't drop a bit.

Of course about 4yrs after the ban sunsets another will hit. Therefore I will buy a new AR style just to say FU.

WonderNine
June 9, 2003, 04:53 AM
Anyone see downward price movement already?

Yes. Preban mags are definately going for less now that the word is spreading. And in some cases, just not selling.

yzguy
June 9, 2003, 11:20 AM
if you want to help insure the ban sunsets please send letters to your elected officals!!!

more info (how to find out exactly where to send them), and a prewritten letter here:
http://www.1bad69.com/awban.htm

Curare
August 31, 2004, 05:00 PM
I started this thread a year ago--it's interesting to see what we were thinking.

SoCalGeek
August 31, 2004, 06:16 PM
Curare- I don't know if anybody has already pointed this out since I didn't read the replies, but the reduced-capacity magazine market will not go down come the sunset. Remember, a few states have mag-capacity restrictions of their own. Most companies will reduce severely (or stop all together) their low-cap production. This means that these other states will have a huge drop in supply of legal magazines. Also, unless the ban is renewed they may have collector interest down the road.

As for the rifles themselves, I have absolutely no idea what the hell will happen. Guess that all depends on the political situation. It's gonna be a difficult fight for the pro-gun side. The grabbers only have to get a bill passed once and we're screwed for 10 years or more- pro-gun activists can't rest because the bill could be passed any time between now and the end of time.

Third_Rail
August 31, 2004, 07:00 PM
Wow. I didn't even see that it was a 2003 thread... I thought this was recent.

Uncertainty certainly doesn't change much. :D

Kenneth Lew
August 31, 2004, 07:06 PM
HK will most likely not produce the HK9x series rifles domestically.

444
August 31, 2004, 09:10 PM
I think a lot of people are going to be disappointed if this ban is allowed to sunset. Not that the ban sunset, but at the prices this stuff is going to cost.
The reason is that people look back at the time before the ban and say something like: I paid $450 for an AR15 and the next week they wanted $1600 or whatever. They seem to forget that since that ban went into effect 10 years ago, the price of everything has gone up. I just checked the Bushmaster website and chose an M4 styled rifle just for an idea. The suggested retail price is: $1065.00. So if Bushmaster as an example comes out with their post ban rifle at over $1000, I think some people are going to be scratching their heads because they thought prices would return to what they were in the early 90s because the ban went away.
I see a lot of posts where people talk about what various items cost pre-ban like that is what they are going to cost in 2004.

WhiteKnight
August 31, 2004, 10:17 PM
Mags. will come down, but not to pre-ban prices, and it won't happen too quickly.

See below.




Even now, "LEO Only" ARs cost essentially the same as their postban civilian counterparts. Only difference after the ban is the "LEO Only" part is meaningless.

You took the words out of my mouth.

Selfdfenz
August 31, 2004, 11:37 PM
Many gun makers that make their own mags have been making hi-caps all along and purposely gubbering them up so that total civilian capacity is only ten rounds. Those same maunfacturers will be able to convert to hi cap production easily and any overreaction could glut the market. Ditto for the non-OEM mag makers. I wouldn't be surprised if 10 round mags became scare if the ban stays away for a few years. Some gun models that have wide grips will have hi-cap available for the first time if they came out during the ban. I've been following hi cap prices and they are already falling locally on AR mags at shops that have a reputation for carrying large volumes and selling at gun shows. Obviously they don't want to be caught with a bunch of product they can't sell.


As for rifles I agree with many that the AR and it's price tag is the one to watch. Given that all the preban rifles could become post ban for the price of a few parts I don't see those owners buying new rifles. They will add what they want from the parts bin cheaply and be done with it.

There are already plenty of AR clones out there. There are AR clones on Gunbroker for under 600 periodically right now. No, they may not be M4s but how many people just gotta have an M4. I would bet a buck or two there will be more new buyers looking for deals in new production un-ban Oly type rifles than high dollar M4 units. I see those bottom end rifles having a continuing impact on the market and in a downward direction.

In summary, I see mag and rifle prices dropping and dropping more the longer the ban is off.

Ask yourself this question. Given the parts that comprise an AR, can a company make that group of parts in todays economy for less than 600$, how about less than 500$? If they want to stay in business and business gets more competitive, can a manufacturer make a quality AR product for 425$.
I don't know but I think possibly so but it all depends on how long the ban stays off and how low the low price manufacturers are willing to go to make sales in this new era.
I'm not a businessman but I know if the buyer cannot determine a significant quality,collector's factor or service justification for paying more, they will go with a cheaper product.

I'm probably wrong but the AWB has had the effect of trending the thought processes of buyers to that of someone buying in a market with limited product and having to pay more for it.

With the ban off I think the reverse happens. From the POV of the manufacturers, now selling a less-restriced product into a more competitive market, it may be that the number of potential buyers will be the limiting factor.

As you can tell, I hope the ban goes away and stays away long enough to really depress prices.

S-

Gordon
August 31, 2004, 11:49 PM
My prediction is some muslim extremists will hose a few malls or something like in Clancy's new book "Teeth of the Tiger" and the left slime and the knee jerk moderates will call emergency session to disarm all citizens lest we throw the problem people out by ethnic profiling. Then my pre bans and post bans prices will REALLY go thru the roof!!!!!:fire:

444
August 31, 2004, 11:51 PM
The thing I think you are missing about the AR rifles is that "they" are selling them for twice what you propose, right now: the rifles we call "post ban". The price I quoted above was the price today for a "post ban" rifle. And, "they" are selling them. Why would they add the "evil features" and then lower their price by half when people are paying the price now, without the "evil features" ?
Again, I don't think these prices are going to fall anywhere near what some people believe. If you can buy a "pre-ban" AR15 today for $1300 lets say, that is only three hundred dollars above suggested retail price for a "post ban" rifle. Now when the "pre-ban" status means nothing, the rifle is just going to become another used AR15 that should sell for less than a new one. But the new ones arn't going to cost $500, you can count on that.

Selfdfenz
September 1, 2004, 12:13 PM
http://www.gunbroker.com/auction/ViewItem.asp?Item=22346895

http://www.gunbroker.com/auction/ViewItem.asp?Item=22458579

http://www.gunbroker.com/auction/ViewItem.asp?Item=22458755

First, I don't know enough about AR clones to testify if these are good or bad products.

All I can say is the prices listed here seem lower to me than the ones I was following about a year ago for about the same models by the same makers.

Will they go up or down after Sept 13....don't know but the optimist in me thinks so. Either way,market forces rule and during the ban the force that ruled the market was the limited availablity of pre ban rifles and that pulled up the prices of post ban units IMO. I believe all that will change . Ditto on magazines.

Frankly I hope I'm right and you're wrong (no flame intended-:D :D ). I'm looking forward to a day when I can go to a shop or gunshow and find a bunch of OEM mags and rifles at prices too cheap to pass on. If it never happens, so be it. I just know $1000 for an/any AR will never bring me into the market.

S-

Tamara
September 1, 2004, 02:35 PM
AR prices are running from the high fives (leftover cast-receiver Olyarms plinkers) through the low-mid sixes (RRA put-it-together-yourself) through the low-mid eights (most ABC basic guns) to over a grand (more "fully-featured" ABC guns.)

My 16" flattop M4gery (RRA/Cavarms) cost me about $650, not counting the Badger Tac-Latch, flip-up rear sight, or any magazines. The same basic rifle, NIB from an ABC company, would have a street price in the low nines in most markets, but would come with a box, a couple of ten rounders, instructions, and so forth...

Selfdfenz
September 1, 2004, 06:17 PM
So what do you think will happen Tamara?
Since you are in the middle of the selling end of things do you think we are liable to see lower or higher prices or something in the same range we are looking at now for rifles and mags?

The gunbroker examples I posted probably represent the extreme in terms of low end prices as the world turns today but your POV might make me jump into the AR market sooner rather than later.

Still, on my budget I'm not sure I could justify a grand for an AR as that same level of funding runs several less spendy acquisition projects.

S-

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