How ready would we really be in a "ultimate 2A SHTF situation"?


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iamkris
May 4, 2007, 10:59 AM
At the risk of sounding like I'm paranoid, I've been doing some thinking about how ready we would actually be in a ultimate 2A situation. I'm not talking about a CCW/mugger/home invasion scenario nor am I talking about a breakdown-of-society/Katrina situation.

In general, I see 3 big categories of uses of guns by private citizens for defense:

1) Personal everyday protection

Many of us here prep for this (although not as much as we probably should) by buying firearms, training with them, thinking through sitations/gaining mindset, being aware. Rating: A-/B+

2) TEOTWAWKI/Katrinia/Lights Out situation

Fewer of us buy the right guns, stockpile supplies/provisions, have a bugout/defense plan, monitor what's going on. Rating: B-/C+

3) Ultimate 2-A scenario

Assuming most of us buy in to the fact that the 2A is not about hunting, nor is it only about everyday self defense. It is the ultimate deterrent to a tyrannical/overbearing government and/or invader.

Here's my quandry...I've been thinking what individuals can do when the deterrent runs out. In the face of an organized, well equipped, well trained foe. With communications and air/arty support. I think a lot of us bluster about how we would resist and give up "when they pull it from my cold dead hands"...and that is a real possibility that you'd be dead.

Individuals and small bands can do a lot of harrassing and damage -- most guerilla warfare histories show us that -- but they are at some level organized. Lots of individuals make a very small impact. Hard to locate small, organized groups do a lot of damage, large groups are easy to overrun.

I've read Unintended Consequences, Lights Out, Enemies Foreign and Domestic series, Molon Labe!, the Fred's Guide to Becoming a Rifleman series and many others...I think they paint a pretty good picture with good lessons


You need good equipment (weapons, provisions, and physical conditioning)
You need to know how to use it
You need friends with the same
You need a plan


I personally think the Appleseed program is GREAT for getting parts of bullet points #1 and 2 done. Fred's overall concepts help you think through #3 and 4...but how many of us actually follow through? I don't personally have a set of friends with the same committment, training or plan that I do.

Our rating on this: D-/F

I'm not advocating that we all get together in some damp, musty basement every Friday night, look at each other's pot bellys and drink beer, grouse about the government, make homemade explosives (as much fun as that all sounds)...my personal life is WAY too busy for this and it crosses my personal paranoia threshold.

That said, "if the big one blows", how would we actually

1) Be ready
2) Communicate and be organized
3) Take action

Thoughts?

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30 cal slob
May 4, 2007, 11:05 AM
i have a 90 day supply of canned baked beans in the cellar.

i'll eat the beans, chuck the cans, and heat my home by harnessing the power of flatulence.

ZeSpectre
May 4, 2007, 11:13 AM
3) Ultimate 2-A scenario

Here's my quandry...I've been thinking what individuals can do when the deterrent runs out. In the face of an organized, well equipped, well trained foe. With communications and air/arty support. I think a lot of us bluster about how we would resist and give up "when they pull it from my cold dead hands"...and that is a real possibility that you'd be dead.

Well, that pretty much sums it up. Some scenarios are FAR past what one individual, or even a small group of like minded folks, can handle unless they are literally willing to die for their beliefs.

I've read Unintended Consequences, Lights Out, Enemies Foreign and Domestic series, Molon Labe!, the Fred's Guide to Becoming a Rifleman series and many others...I think they paint a pretty good picture with good lessons

You need good equipment (weapons, provisions, and physical conditioning)
You need to know how to use it
You need friends with the same
You need a plan

I haven't read all of those but would re-priortize your outline a bit because in a scenario as you describe the first thing you will need is leadership and the second is manpower (and lots of it). With enough bodies focused towards the same goal you can generally come up with the rest. Individual training is good but in the type of event we're discussing you are DRT if you can't get some squad and larger tactics and co-ordination into place as well.

How would it all come together? That's what the leadership part is all about. Once the seed is formed others would probably start joining in.

El Tejon
May 4, 2007, 11:15 AM
Massive civil disobedience as in other areas such as Crete. Apparently Greece has licensing, registration, fees, etc., but in Crete no one give three you-know-whats. Guns are widely owned and carried frequently.

I have lived in areas where the Second Amendment is void, D.C. and Chicago. I did not comply with the law.

I did not paint my face black and run into a park, or give myself a secret squirrel moniker, "Shadow Killer", "Bad Karma", etc. I wore a coat and tie and carried a briefcase. I was invisible to the police, paid my taxes, legally parked my car, never touched drugs other than beer (hey, I'm from Indiana where beer is just liquid bread) but I had all sorts of "illegal guns" in my apartment.

Massive non-compliance results in the law being turned into a laughingstock, something politicians hate. E.g., in Indiana the law used to read that all transfers of pistols had to be done through dealers. Growing up, everyone I know laughed at that law and refused to comply, including family members. I remember pistols sales done openly in front of the police at gun shows where this law was not complied with.

When the politicians realized that the law was feckless, it was abolished. Civil disobedience is the way.

hankdatank1362
May 4, 2007, 11:15 AM
My thoughts are that it would go something like "Red Dawn." But no commies.

Do you really think the .gov would try to kill a bunch of it's own population anyway? They get upset when even one person kills him/her self, b/c it's one person less to tax!

Glockman17366
May 4, 2007, 11:18 AM
Not very ready at all...not for number 3, anyway.

I'm OK for #'s 1 and 2 though...as long as the TEOTWAWKI/Katrinia/Lights Out situation didn't last more then a month (which is unlikely).

#3 would be the end of the US...I am sure about that. The southern US would probably be seized by Mexico (they'd lose Texas and other states, but probably take California).

iamkris
May 4, 2007, 12:46 PM
Do you really think the .gov would try to kill a bunch of it's own population anyway?

Well I certainly hope they wouldn't but I wouldn't have thought that National Guard troops and Police would walk around New Orleans beating old ladies to take their guns either.

In a bigger sense, if 2A is REALLY about deterrence to the .gov...what is the sense of a detterent if you aren't actually prepared and able to use it. It is apaper tiger at that point

thing you will need is leadership and the second is manpower

You are spot on and I think this is the crux of my concern. So many talk a good game but shen push comes to shove, I don't think they'll actually do anything. A great leader will get people motivated BEFORE the actual force is needed.

When the politicians realized that the law was feckless, it was abolished. Civil disobedience is the way.

So I agree...the "soft war" is easier than the "hard war". It's just that we seem to hav difficulty mobilizing compared to our adversaries...zelots tend to be rabid like that. Of course, I guess that makes the challenge of mobilizing for the hard war all that much more difficult.

cheygriz
May 4, 2007, 02:23 PM
Bear in mind that policemen and soldiers are Americans too. If the general doesn't shoot the politician that tries to create TEOTWAWKI, the colonel will shoot the general, and then the politician. If the colonel goes along with the general, then the captains, sargeants, privates etc will desert "enmasse" and join the rebels.:fire:

Whose gonna have the tanks and fighter aircraft then?:evil:

Boats
May 4, 2007, 02:38 PM
To the OP:

What, pray tell, are the "right weapons?"

MrDig
May 4, 2007, 02:43 PM
I try not to brood or ruminate about these things too much. Sufice it to say that I have some ammo stored and some weapons that will work well if I need them in a hurry.

paul45
May 4, 2007, 02:45 PM
Do you have a nuclear proof bunker and wear a tinfoil hat as well?

IllHunter
May 4, 2007, 02:51 PM
but I beleive it to be realistic. That those of us who think ahead and are prepared and survive the initial threat will become leaders. The tools we hold and employ will serve to differ us from the norm and our self sufficiency will bring others to want what we have (in both good and bad ways).

The ability to think, speak and act will be the deciding factors and all this blogging is preparation for sharing information.

Fish Miner
May 4, 2007, 03:11 PM
All I know is I am putting as much survival gear in my boat as possible and heading to the everglades. I will use the area like the Seminole and Mikasukee did- evade the old gov't and new gov't alike, live where no man wants to live.

iamkris
May 4, 2007, 04:23 PM
Do you have a nuclear proof bunker and wear a tinfoil hat as well?


Don't know if that was to me or not but I admit that this whole topic sets off my BS/paranoia/pathetic loser alarm a bit.

That said, I'm a firm believer that the 2A is an ultimate barrier to tyranny.

Barriers, however, are worthless if they are flimsy.

Personally I don't think a bunch of riflemen individually scattered around the country -- unorganized, untrained, unmotivated -- are an effective force. An annoyance, maybe, but not an effective force.

If that is so, then it starts to destroy the premise of the 2A as the "final solution".

That thought experiment is what got me to ask the original question.

The ability to think, speak and act will be the deciding factors and all this blogging is preparation for sharing information

Maybe that's the answer? We certainly have a virtual set of people we can call on...then again, I would prefer to train with a team to be effective3 versus have a buncha guys show up some place.

Ooops, there goes my paranoia alarm again...

Sharps-shooter
May 4, 2007, 04:32 PM
I think history (including current events) has shown that people can sometimes do admirably in the face of a much better equipped foe, particularly with the home court advantage.

I grew up in Appalachia during the cold war era. We used to always joke that if the communists ever invaded, we'd have them running around with their hands on their helmets screaming "nyet" within a week. No matter how many men or what guns I had, or what organization of whichever government I was backed by, I would never want to go into a place like that with hostile intentions. I do not think this fact is lost on gun-grabbing politicians.

Would the government kill large numbers of its own people? I mean, more than say, an ill-fated commune in Waco full? No, surely not. Not the government that's sitting now. But we must always remember that the members of government change. So the real question is not "Would the current government kill large numbers of its own people?", but "Would any government kill large numbers of its own people?". History teaches us that the answer is, "yes".

I think there's a strong undercurrent in our society that steers people away from familial unity and thinking in terms of families. After all, the less we share as families, the more stuff we have to buy, and then we get to show off what we bought. If you live with your parents at 35, you're a huge loser. Even if this means the difference between you being able to put your kids through college or not, or keep yourself out of massive debt. Being able to stand together as strong families is a big part of self-reliance, and a big part of how we make ourselves prepared for the sorts of bad situations that come along every so often (Hurricane Katrina, The Great Depression, The Civil War, etc.). I feel that mainstream america is not very strong on this point (immigrants are often much more familial, by contrast).

I strongly would recommend that everyone who is on good terms with their family try to work out a preparedness plan with the other households of their family, especially any that live close by. In my family, for instance, we've chosen certain calibers and platforms that we all have or are acquiring (12 ga, 5.56mm, .22 lr, 9mm). That way, if we all have to head for our nuclear-proof bunker, we all end up their with guns that have interchangeable ammo and sometimes parts. If one gun breaks, those rounds can be used in another gun, instead of trying to pull them apart for reload parts.

We got this idea from the Battle of Aughrim, in the late 1600's. Some of our kin were there. They set up a Thermopylae type situation, holding the redcoats at bay at a narrow pass through a bog, and almost won the battle against very long odds. Then, at the moment of truth, they opened a case of ammo and found it to be compatible not with their own muskets, but with those of another regiment stationed nearby. Case after case was opened, and it was all the wrong stuff. They lost, and most of them never ate breakfast again.

Learn from your ancestors, stick with your family, and keep your long arms ready.

romma
May 4, 2007, 04:33 PM
I don't wear a tinfoil hat, however, the folks that were herded into cattlecars in Germany in the 1940s' had a SHTF scenerio that they never expected. Plenty of other suprises around the globe also.I think it is an illusion to believe that a situation like these can't or won't happen here, because we're in "The Good ole USA"! There is no Good Ole USA anymore. Parts of it maybe.

BrianB
May 4, 2007, 04:35 PM
More likely (albeit scary) scenario is multiple tactical nukes going off around the country (Jericho on smaller scale). United States still exists, but is economically crippled. Grocery stores empty, massive amounts of farmland contaminated. Katrina times 10, with little hope of assistance from outside. That's the goal of our worst enemies...and they are very patient.

30 cal slob
May 4, 2007, 04:41 PM
JBT's come to your house to take your guns away.

Say you're lucky and you manage to take 'em all out.

Ya ain't gonna be staying at your house after that, right?

There's going to be some more JBT's coming your way.

gbran
May 4, 2007, 04:48 PM
This is why I'll never live in a big city. I'd hate to be in the Los Angeles basin durring an event that would bring social disorder. While I do live in town, I'm pretty close to my hunting areas where I know I can survive.

03Shadowbob
May 4, 2007, 05:14 PM
Fish Miner,
I'll see you out there then cause that is where I am going. Plenty of water, fish, and alligator to live on. Hell I even have carpet in my boat so it'll be just like home:)

physics
May 4, 2007, 05:15 PM
Grocery stores empty, massive amounts of farmland contaminated. Katrina times 10, with little hope of assistance from outside.
You mean McDonalds won't be able to feed us all?!? :neener:
I've tried to convince friends that they need to prepare for such things, but they never listen. I'm gonna try my family next, I think that's a good idea.

Better to be prepared for the worst and experience the best than prepare for the best and experience the worst. (Go dig your shelter, just make sure to line it with tinfoil so they can't TEMPEST you.):neener:

Fish Miner
May 4, 2007, 05:20 PM
Shadowbob- my plan is to hit Choko and go into the back country from there- up the wilderness waterway into the back islands and stuff. Good to know THR's will be out there with me :)

iamkris
May 4, 2007, 05:21 PM
In my family, for instance, we've chosen certain calibers and platforms that we all have or are acquiring

Can I be in your family? My brother is a strong conservative but is not overtly pro-gun and lives 4 hours away. No cousins to speak of. Mom passed away and dad is near the end of a long battle with cancer.

More likely (albeit scary) scenario is multiple tactical nukes going off around the country ...Katrina times 10...That's the goal of our worst enemies...and they are very patient.

I also think that is the more likely scenario. Halffast's story, Lights Out, was a plausible sitation that favors those who have strong leadership and a plan over those who act as individuals.

Would any government kill large numbers of its own people?". History teaches us that the answer is, "yes".

And that sums up why I think this is an important question. It can happen and 2A is worthless as a deterrent, I believe, without training, preparation and planning to actually flex that muscle.

I just gotta figure out how to prep and get my team assembled without looking, actiing or turning into a complete whack-job.

glockman19
May 4, 2007, 05:24 PM
All I will say is I'm prepared.

Justin
May 4, 2007, 05:26 PM
You know, after awhile, these threads all cause a pain very similar to an ice-cream headache.

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