17,148 guns reported missing in 2005


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Car Knocker
May 12, 2007, 05:09 PM
From the January, 2007, FFL Newsletter received today:
IOIs (Industry Operations Investigators) also compared open entries in the acquisition and disposal records to the physical inventory, and 44,537 total discrepancies were noted. Once the discrepancies were reconciled, 17,148 guns were reported missing by 477 Federal firearms licensees (FFLs). Of the 477 FFLs, 135 reported 10 or more missing guns.
That's a lot of inventory shrinkage!

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mlandman
May 12, 2007, 05:15 PM
Umm...that averages to almost 36 per FFL. If the 312 that reported less than 10 guns lost, can't find an average of 8 apiece :uhoh: , the remaining bunch lost over 108 guns each!!! :what: How do you lose 2 guns per week, all year long?:what:

MikeB
May 12, 2007, 05:17 PM
Not really. Considering there were approx 4.7 million new guns manufactured or imported for sale during 2005, I don't think 18,000 missing in a single year are really all that many. Numbers can be fairly meaningless without context. I'm actually surprised the number isn't higher. After all, we are dealing with humans and computers to track all those guns, and neither are infallible.

The Deer Hunter
May 12, 2007, 05:24 PM
Now are they just guns which the sellers lost the 4473's to or forgot to do paperwork for? Or just lost or stolen guns?


Because if thats a real high number.

BTW, Welcome to The High Road GotGuns :)

Car Knocker
May 12, 2007, 05:32 PM
Well, since the FFLs reported them as missing after getting the paperwork sorted out, I'd venture to guess they were missing/stolen.

Kali Endgame
May 12, 2007, 07:48 PM
Well, I'm going to do my part and try to find them. Yippee, a gunny Easter egg hunt.

FCFC
May 13, 2007, 12:37 AM
Not really. Considering there were approx 4.7 million new guns manufactured or imported for sale during 2005, I don't think 18,000 missing in a single year are really all that many. Numbers can be fairly meaningless without context. I'm actually surprised the number isn't higher. After all, we are dealing with humans and computers to track all those guns, and neither are infallible.

Of course 17,148 lost guns is a high number. The 4.7 million number is not really relevant to the perfectly valid context of: all guns lost in a year (by all the losers). In this case the 477 FFLs cited as losing guns are a huge problem since their performance indicates incompetence, lack of caring or both.

I wouldn't have thought the BATF would put up with such nonsense. I thought it was tough about those kinds of things. If the number of guns by FFLs is really 17,148 in one year, it is a serious problem. *** happened to them?

.cheese.
May 13, 2007, 12:44 AM
any possibility that this number is do to poor inventory records resulting in "guns on paper" - and therefore much fewer guns were actually missing physically?

The number seems awfully high.

WeedWhacker
May 13, 2007, 02:32 AM
Not to forget: the whole system of recording the sale of new firearms is just another abridgement of inherent, God-given rights. We do not (yet) blame the knives used by slasher-killers and require merchants to collect a ton of information about each pocketknife sold.

Four tenths of one percent margin of error? I'd say that's pretty damned good for humans. Sure beats the IRS' and BATFE's record-keeping accuracy by a few powers of ten.

Blame the criminal, not the tool.

FCFC
May 13, 2007, 07:40 AM
Four tenths of one percent margin of error? I'd say that's pretty damned good for humans.
So, you're saying that losing 17,148 guns in a year by 477 FFLs is good performance?

And your criterion is what?

WeedWhacker
May 13, 2007, 07:57 AM
So, you're saying that losing 17,148 guns in a year by 477 FFLs is good performance?

And your criterion is what?

Equality under the law.

When the BATFE and IRS can't keep their own crap in line, then expect nothing short of perfection of the peasants, I call foul. For just one out of hundreds (if not thousands) of such incidents, read up on the attempted railroading Red's Trading Post (http://www.redstradingpost.com/atf.php).

Frankly, I don't care where 18,000 firearms went. They are not going to do anything bad by themselves. The criminals which may misuse them should be locked up in prison, not out on parole because there is no room to keep them behind bars due to, among other things, mandatory minimum sentences for people who like to consume Evil Drugs as opposed to Approved Drugs (nicotine, alcohol, caffeine, etc.).

FCFC
May 13, 2007, 10:29 AM
Frankly, I don't care where 18,000 firearms went.

Gotcha. The old, "I don't care" criterion.

Works on any an all pesky problems...

Simplifies life quite nicely, don't it??? :)

wally
May 13, 2007, 10:29 AM
I wouldn't have thought the BATF would put up with such nonsense. I thought it was tough about those kinds of things. If the number of guns by FFLs is really 17,148 in one year, it is a serious problem. *** happened to them?

What happened to them? They were stolen!

I see some blame the victim mentality here. Theft of a gun from an FFL is a Federal Felony, where is the FBI/BATFE effort to solve these crimes? Same place it is on Idenity Theft -- talk to us when your *losses* exceed $100,000!

--wally.

Edit: FCFC, new member, I smell a troll.

elrod
May 13, 2007, 10:57 AM
You almost have to believe in a combination of thiefts, careless paperwork, and illegal sales to account for the missing guns. Locally, I know of one dealer closed down for missing inventory. According to local LEO sources, there was even some class III stuff gone!!

FCFC
May 13, 2007, 11:09 AM
Locally, I know of one dealer closed down for missing inventory. According to local LEO sources, there was even some class III stuff gone!!

Don't worry, the extra guns out on the street in your area "are not going to do anything bad by themselves." :uhoh:


Don't worry, be happy. :)

Just use the "I don't care" criterion as displayed above and everything will be just fine...

MinnMooney
May 13, 2007, 11:26 AM
If 135 FFL's lost 10 or more then the other 342 FFL's lost 9 or fewer. Let's just put that figure at 9 each so that's 3078. That leaves 14,070 for the 135 very sloppy/careless FFL's OR about 104 guns (IN ONE YEAR!). I don't care what kind of businessman you are......... THAT'S SLOPPY!!!
Someone said, "What happened to them? They were stolen!
I see some blame the victim mentality here." So what?! He'd still have them on inventory and would have reported them as "Stolen" so they are not a "discrepancy". They are just lousy business people.
If Target has a "discrepancy" of 108 barbies at the end of the year, it's written off to employee theft, shoplifting or whatever..... but they're not regulated by the BATF. When they deal in guns under the rules of a license then that license can be witheld or revoked. Same goes for a bar or liquor store.
No one is "Blaming the victim". If they're that bad at their business then get a different business........... sell Barbies.

deadin
May 13, 2007, 11:28 AM
All I can ask of the "apologists" that are saying "well, in the big picture it's nothing", is how many times is it "OK" for a delivery room nurse to drop a baby, or how many times would they accept a mechanics excuse that "I only screw up a repair job every once in a while. Too bad it was yours, but TS, it's within the margin of error."

FCFC
May 13, 2007, 11:38 AM
If they're that bad at their business then get a different business........... sell Barbies.

Just keep them away from some of the Barbie accessories...

http://www.beaglexp.com/archives/BARBIE1%20(2).jpg

MinnMooney
May 13, 2007, 11:58 AM
Hey, "fcfc", is that a real AR-15 or an airsoft? My daughter might even go to the range with me if'n I dolled one up like that!

akodo
May 13, 2007, 12:13 PM
can ask of the "apologists" that are saying "well, in the big picture it's nothing", is how many times is it "OK" for a delivery room nurse to drop a baby, or how many times would they accept a mechanics excuse that "I only screw up a repair job every once in a while. Too bad it was yours, but TS, it's within the margin of error."


wait...that's exactly what we are talking about.

Nurses DO drop babies, doctors DO botch up procedures, and only the absolute worse ones, where doctors knowingly take shortcuts, work drunk, or whatever actually become malpractice cases...and then only if the patient learns of it.

Snip a little too far, cutting a nerve making a leg unusable, well, that's just a risk you take with any surgery.


Now, onto guns. I wonder how many of these are "I ordered 50 different guns from vendor X for my gunshop, when UPS showed up, and we received the product into inventory over the next few days, it turns out we only got 48!

I work in logistics for an electronics chain, one of the biggest 2 sources of losss before it gets on the floor (where shoplifting is the biggest source...which I don't think happens at many gunstores) is #1 we break it moving it around, #2 Vendor said they sent us 100, but the truck only had 96.

we try and catch #2 before it enters our inventory, but we don't always succeed. Sometimes people are in a hurry, and after having all their other paperwork so far that day match quantity claimed with quantity received, they just okay it quick without a careful count.

We had it for a while where we were getting rush shipped some laptops pretty much a thousand a week from oversees, so it was coming into minneapolis international airport. They would come in pallets of 100, 25 per layer standing on end, 4 layers, covered in shrinkwrap, banding, cornercards, international flight labeling, etc.

Except that frquently in the middle of the pallet we would find boxes that were opened and the merchandise pulled out.

It got so bad that we now institute a policy of every single laptop unit is restacked onto pallets we have in house, specially colored to indicate they are ours, so we can catch the empty boxes before we put them into inventory.

If an international package going through an airport where we are supposed to have 9-11 type security is being stolen, how hard is it for the UPS guy who comes and picks the guns up at the manufacturers to 'loose' a few for the right price?

ATW525
May 13, 2007, 12:35 PM
As far as I'm aware FFLs are required to log in each and every firearm they receive. They don't just simply record that they've got 36 more Glock's in a shipment, they have to record each and every seriel number in their log book. I find the scenario of "Well, we only got 33 Glocks, so make up seriel numbers for the missing three" to be highly unlikely.

deadin
May 13, 2007, 12:36 PM
So your basic "apologist" stance is that all of these examples are "OK"?
How many botched operations is a doctor allowed before his license is pulled?
How much inventory can be lost before it becomes unbearable?
Yes, SH, but we don't have to stand for it.
Any gunshop that "loses" and average of 40+ gun a year (regardless of the reason and only admits to it when audited) doesn't deserve to have a license.

MikeB
May 13, 2007, 12:45 PM
So your basic "apologist" stance is that all of these examples are "OK"?

It isn't ok, but to just point out the 18,000 missing weapons, without putting it into context of just how small a number that actually is, is irresponsible and the type of reporting that the Brady Campaign would do. Those 447 FFL's should be investigated. The real story here though isn't just that we have some FFL's that may not be operating properly, but the number who are.

To look at it another way. There were over 54,000 FFL's in 2005. So that 54,000/447. So less than 8/10 of a single percent of FFL's had missing inventory.

Oops, that's 477/54000 or .00883. Still less than 9/10 of one percent.

ATW525
May 13, 2007, 01:24 PM
It isn't ok, but to just point out the 18,000 missing weapons, without putting it into context of just how small a number that actually is, is irresponsible and the type of reporting that the Brady Campaign would do. Those 447 FFL's should be investigated. The real story here though isn't just that we have some FFL's that may not be operating properly, but the number who are.

To look at it another way. There were over 54,000 FFL's in 2005. So that 54,000/447. So less than 8/10 of a single percent of FFL's had missing inventory.

Oops, that's 477/54000 or .00883. Still less than 9/10 of one percent.

Were all 54,000 FFLs actually audited, or were only a fraction chosen for ATF scrutiny? The snippet we've been provided with doesn't say.

wally
May 13, 2007, 01:29 PM
doctors DO botch up procedures, and only the absolute worse ones, where doctors knowingly take shortcuts, work drunk, or whatever actually become malpractice cases...and then only if the patient learns of it.

OT, but not really true. "Innovative" lawyers like John Edwards take cases on spec to sue over normal complications from medical treatment, if they then win a few cases or get some settlements they shop around their services to anyone with this bad luck. Its how Edwards became a billionaire - as a newbie took an obstrectics case no one else at his firm would touch, won to everyone's astonishment, and now this statistically not so uncommon complication is an immediate settlement on any Doc's insurance who is unfortunate enough to have such a patient. This is why OB/GYN and Anesthesiologist fees are so high -- their insurance premiums are outrageous. Birth defects of some sort are a couple of percent of live births, general anesthesia would kill a fraction of a percent of healthy people if done to them with no other procedure.

--wally.

TheOld Man
May 13, 2007, 02:47 PM
Co I work for has an auto parts warehouse. Many times discrepancies happen between what the paperwork says is on the pallet and what the warehouse guys actually unload. If they came up short 10 mufflers in a year,heads would roll. They came up short a radiator, checked what car it fit. Lifted the hood on employees Chevy, and there it was! "Good luck on your next job, if you can find one with the reference we're going to give you." :evil:

FCFC
May 13, 2007, 03:03 PM
Hey, "fcfc", is that a real AR-15 or an airsoft?
It's a real deal, MM. I snagged the pic from a random web site.

Barbie...the b*tch does have everything...

WeedWhacker
May 14, 2007, 04:55 AM
Gotcha. The old, "I don't care" criterion.

So, you concede these points:

Equality under the law.

When the BATFE and IRS can't keep their own crap in line, then expect nothing short of perfection of the peasants, I call foul. For just one out of hundreds (if not thousands) of such incidents, read up on the attempted railroading Red's Trading Post.

They [guns] are not going to do anything bad by themselves. The criminals which may misuse them should be locked up in prison, not out on parole because there is no room to keep them behind bars due to, among other things, mandatory minimum sentences for people who like to consume Evil Drugs as opposed to Approved Drugs (nicotine, alcohol, caffeine, etc.).

Or do you just enjoy taking things out of context to further your own (errant) point of view?

You do realize that the peasants *must* be armed at least as well as, if not better than, the gov't? Anything less is unconstitutional, and all these bureaucratic hoops are nothing more than illegal barriers to peasant ownership of arms.

pcf
May 14, 2007, 08:51 AM
What's a "missing" gun?

If Davidson's, a FFL holder, ships a gun through UPS and it disappears, does Davidson's have to report that gun as missing? I've shipped around 15 pistols through UPS, all overnight, and had one vanished into thin air. I can only imagine what happens when you ship 20,000 or more firearms a year.

What about FFL's that are the victims of armed robberies or burglaries?

How many gun shops in Louisiana lost their inventory to looters in 2005? Those would still be reported as missing guns.

Just because "FFL" and "missing guns" are used in the same sentence, doesn't necessarily mean the "the FFL is at fault for the missing guns."

rbernie
May 14, 2007, 10:01 AM
What about FFL's that are the victims of armed robberies or burglaries?

How many gun shops in Louisiana lost their inventory to looters in 2005? Those would still be reported as missing guns.

Just because "FFL" and "missing guns" are used in the same sentence, doesn't necessarily mean the "the FFL is at fault for the missing guns."Stop trying to be rational - there guys were having way too much fun talking past each other and avoiding critical analysis of the quoted statistic.

kellyj00
May 14, 2007, 10:33 AM
also worth considering... if business is bad and you're shady enough, go ahead and stage a break in, hide some guns and claim they were stolen to collect insurance on your inventory.

Insurance fraud... but it's been known to happen on more than one occasion that I know of...don't know about gun shops though.

Also notable, I bought a shotgun years ago from a local shop. They wrote down the serial number wrong when they sold it to me and had to call me to verify it. It was a mossberg 500 and they had quite a few on the shelf.

ATW525
May 14, 2007, 11:05 AM
What's a "missing" gun?

If Davidson's, a FFL holder, ships a gun through UPS and it disappears, does Davidson's have to report that gun as missing? I've shipped around 15 pistols through UPS, all overnight, and had one vanished into thin air. I can only imagine what happens when you ship 20,000 or more firearms a year.

What about FFL's that are the victims of armed robberies or burglaries?

How many gun shops in Louisiana lost their inventory to looters in 2005? Those would still be reported as missing guns.

Just because "FFL" and "missing guns" are used in the same sentence, doesn't necessarily mean the "the FFL is at fault for the missing guns."

Lost or stolen firearms that have been properly reported would not be "open entries in the acquisition and disposal records". These entries are closed out with a incident number provided by the ATF when the loss is reported.

Owen
May 14, 2007, 11:14 AM
I work in the industry, and I can tell you that the large companies lose guns all the time. when you have 700,000 cluttered sf, and 600 employees, it's real easy to lose stuff.

MinnMooney
May 14, 2007, 11:31 AM
There's been a lot of good thoughts on this thread. A lot of questions have been asked and unanswered. The original article lacks a lot of facts that are needed to answer the questions. Hopefully there will be follow-up articles on the 2005 audit.

FieroCDSP
May 14, 2007, 12:42 PM
I wouldn't have thought the BATF would put up with such nonsense. I thought it was tough about those kinds of things. If the number of guns by FFLs is really 17,148 in one year, it is a serious problem. *** happened to them?

No, the BATFE is just really thorough about nailing people that have no guns missing, but a line on one of the FTL's forms is written illegibly. (see Red)

We had a close call a few months back where one of our people was about to sell a firearm without paperwork. He wasn't trained to sell them, and therefore didn't know that a shotgun/muzzleloader combo is still a required NICS check. The manager caught him (fortunately) and rather than train him, they told him to call a manager if someone wants to look at one. Given this scenario, it's not hard to understand how a gun can be lost on paper.

cpileri
May 14, 2007, 01:52 PM
Lets make a generous assumption that the ATF uses solid statistics to help guide their audits.
Given a sufficiently large sample, like 54000 FFL's, you choose a certain number to audit; a representative sample.

The number you choose has a statistical significance and a confidence interval associated with it. If you choose a decent sample, you can make a statement like " I am within 5% certain that my results are representative of all FFL's, plus or minus 1%". Again, this depends on the exact numbers.

So if you choose a 100% standard, in other words a 'zero-tolerance' for error and in your representative sample you find an error; have you failed to meet standard?

You can't say for certain. The best you could say is "I am within 1% certain that my result is representative of all FFL's plus-or-minus 1%".

In order to DISPUTE the seemingly sub-standard result; you must now perform a FULL review of everyone in the population- all 54000 FFL's...

(hold that thought, since here is where the regular biological community and the ATF part ways...)

In a biologic system, it is accepted that normal human variation will produce error a certain percentage of the time. Assuming that the 100% standard is achieveable by humans at all, it is accepted that at any given time in the ENTIRE population you should find over 95% of humans 'in compliance.

So if the ATF were following an accepted human model, they would now have to check ALL FFL's and every single record, and if 95% or greater was achieved; then the population gets a pass. If a single individual was audited, they would have to check not just that year's records but all the records from the entire time that person had the liscence; and if the ffl got over 95% then the ffl get a pass.

Of course, the ATF set an arbitrary and essentially unachieveable 100% standard on full review (which i doubt they perform, BTW), not 95%. But that is more so they can keep their funding and justify their existence, than in actually doing anything else.

C-

cpileri
May 14, 2007, 01:55 PM
Just to clarify...

a 100% achievement on full review may be achieveable by any given individual at any given time, but not by any given individual 100% of the time; nor by all of the individuals (i.e. the population) at any given time; and certainly cannot be expected by all of the individuals all of the time.

Did that help?

C-

gezzer
May 15, 2007, 02:58 AM
These are still better percentages than the NFA records of the BATFE.

Close only to lost guns by the police agencys.

pharmer
May 15, 2007, 12:37 PM
ATF would need 10 years to audit every FFL. Most of the guns in question are "technical errors". Not logged in bound book, disposal (sale) not recorded, personal weapons (FFL's do own guns that are not required to be in BB) transferred into or out of inventory. Something nice comes in and I want it, not in book. Momma says "no more guns" so I put one of my clunkers in the display case to make her happy. I'll make the entry tomorrow when I open. I probably missed quite a few, it's been a long time since I had an FFL. Joe

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