Massachusetts crime confusion


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.cheese.
July 28, 2007, 07:31 PM
Was reading this:

http://www.goal.org/news/STOPtheLies.htm

and noticed this:

The gun laws passed in Massachusetts in 1998 have resulted in a higher crime rate, a separation between lawful gun owners and political leaders and a distraction from real solutions that have allowed the criminal element in our state to get years ahead of us.

So, then out of curiosity I found this:

http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/macrime.htm

and noticed that following 98 the years 98-99 and 99-2000 seem to have considerable jumps downward in violent crime. The trend stops there though and the decrease goes back to approximately the amount it was decreasing annually since 93.

I'm hard pressed to say that the decrease was due to the 98 Gun Control Act in Mass due to it not being sustainable..... but at the same time I don't know what it actually was due to.

Any ideas?

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Standing Wolf
July 28, 2007, 09:48 PM
Laws are to violent crime rates as sacrificing virgins is to weather.

.cheese.
July 28, 2007, 10:08 PM
how can GOAL make such a claim though? The numbers don't back up their claim.

I'm not saying that Mass's GCA has done anything good.... but I don't see their claim in numbers?

gezzer
July 29, 2007, 01:02 AM
Not for nothing but you believe anything from MA?

Former gulag MA prisoner, where conservative Republicans are just Moderate Socialist Democrats.

RPCVYemen
July 29, 2007, 12:10 PM
I hadn't looked at the decrease, but it is pretty substantial. In the years immediately preceding 1998, the rate of violent crime rate was right around 4OK/year - since the ban, it's been down around 30K/year.


Mike

atk
July 29, 2007, 02:42 PM
1. Who is disastercenter.com, and where do their numbers come from?

2. Are the numbers presented on this site complete - do they account for all crimes? I see "violent" and "property", but what about non-violent crimes against a person? What about white collar crimes? Are these included? Where?

3. Does GOAL mean this in comparison to the rest of the US?

4. The specific text you quoted refers to "crime rates". Not "violent crimes". You specify violent crimes.

5. Why don't you ask GOAL to explain? They're generally very responsive. They can tell you, far better than anyone on this board at explaining what they're thinking, and how they're making a comparison.

akodo
July 29, 2007, 09:49 PM
a few things to consider, there are always changes in crime rates because many factors change each year, not just one.

If state A institutes a new law, and crime drops 5%, but crime across the nation drops 10%, that law lead to more crime.

scubie02
July 29, 2007, 10:02 PM
what was the economy like during those times? That has as much to do with crime as anything. What other factors could there have been? Goverments love to mess with the way statistics are gathered to make them fit their agenda. Figures don't lie, but liars can figure as a teacher of mine used to say...

Dannavyret
July 29, 2007, 10:23 PM
The fact that so many people are leaving that wretched excuse for a state?

willbrink
July 30, 2007, 10:06 AM
"The fact that so many people are leaving that wretched excuse for a state?"

Hey, if not for the taxes, stupid guns laws, bad attitudes, weather, traffic, and cost of living, it would be a great place to live!:what:

Other than those small issues, I love it here! :scrutiny:

CZ.22
July 30, 2007, 03:47 PM
don't feed the troll
starting new threads to increase post count
standing wolf got it right

Hoppy590
July 30, 2007, 04:02 PM
i dont think some one with 1,445 posts whos been here over 4 years is a troll. and honestly its pretty insulting you would say it when all he did was ask a question.

fletcher
July 30, 2007, 04:04 PM
don't feed the troll
starting new threads to increase post count
standing wolf got it right

Just because an organization is pro-gun, or publishes something that may be pro-gun doesn't mean they are any more honest or accurate than the antis. If .cheese. didn't go look up the facts himself to confirm the information, he'd be no better than your average MMM or Brady.

RPCVYemen
July 30, 2007, 04:34 PM
The fact that so many people are leaving that wretched excuse for a state?

I wouldn't want to live there. But there were almost a quarter of a million more people in MA in 2005 than there were in 1998. So there may be "many people leaving", but there are an awful lot of them moving in (or being born there)!

The real picture is probably that many factors bedside gun control affect violent crime. The only study that I have read in enough detail to trust was done by the CDC, and they found no correlation between any gun laws (strict gun control, shall carry, etc.) and rates of violent crime. That makes sense to me.

Mike

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