Will 5.56/.223 ammo ever go down in price?


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22_Shooter
January 18, 2008, 11:29 PM
I've been wanting to get an AR, and with my tax return coming soon, I'm researching like crazy to find something in my price range. So given that I can afford the gun, I doubt I will be able to shoot it that much with the price of 5.56/.233. I wanna get one now, while I still can, but wonder how much actually shooting it will hurt the wallet.

So do you think the price of this ammo will ever go down??

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quatin
January 18, 2008, 11:38 PM
I doubt it, just like gas. I think these materials were very cheap before and is now coming back up to meet demand.

Magnuumpwr
January 18, 2008, 11:49 PM
I think prices will go down after our boys and girls overseas are brought back home. Lots of M-16's burning ammo, hence no surplus.

AJ Dual
January 18, 2008, 11:51 PM
So do you think the price of this ammo will ever go down??

Short answer, yes.

Longer answer, yes, but you won't notice it.

There are three main pressures on ammo prices in the U.S.: inflation/weakening of the U.S. Dollar, world metal commodity prices for lead and copper, and probably most directly, scarcity of commercially available ammunition because plants have been tasking a great deal of their output to fulfill Dept. of Defense contracts for Iraq and Afghanistan, and also the re-arming of their new allied militarys.

A couple of other large military orders by a few other nations have also come right in the same time frame. (Syria's mega-order of 7.62x39 comes to mind)

The new demand on metals as China and India's and other third-world manufacturing economies continues to expand won't slow down, but the new mines will open as the metals become so valuable will help fill demand somewhat. That will up supplies and lower costs eventually.

The Iraq and Afghanistan occupation/insurgency will end eventually, and the other large military orders will be filled. This could cause an over-supply in manufacturing capacity, and potential surpluses in military stocks and a subsequent dearth of military orders in the future. The increased mfg. capacity, if not mothballed, would have to be turned towards the civilian market to continue recouping profits on the capital investments.

That could cause a glut of civilian production which could eventually lower prices. And the increased efficiency in management, shipping, production etc. to meet those large orders could create some secondary trickle-down savings for the commercial market too.

However, the eventual excess ammo manufacturing capacity, and the increased mining to cover metal demands could take years to have a real effect in civilian ammo for sale.

So I think it's more likely we'll see an eventual plateau in ammo prices, and then inflation and wage inflation will catch up to make the plateau price "smaller".

cslinger
January 18, 2008, 11:54 PM
Yes.

1-We will eventually leave the sandbox and both the surplus and excess ammo production will have to be bled off.

2-China, who is using up a lot of the raw materials is very likely to peak out and go into a recession pretty soon driving demand and therefore prices for things such as oil, metals etc. down.

3-I am an eternal pessimist and every once in a great while I try to be optimistic. :D

22_Shooter
January 18, 2008, 11:56 PM
Very interesting AJ_Dual. Maybe I'll get a 9mm AR for the time being then. It just sucks that I can now afford to buy an AR, but would be severely limited in shooting it:(.

Magnuumpwr
January 19, 2008, 12:00 AM
Way to think Shooter, you can always pickup a 223 upper. At least you will have your lower already.:D

SnakeEater
January 19, 2008, 12:02 AM
<---<whispers>....every hear of reloading?

teombe
January 19, 2008, 01:31 AM
Of course it will go down.

Right now, 5.56 ammo costs more than 5.7x28.... that lets you know it's simply a supply/demand issue with the finished goods- not necessarily the base metals and components.

The operations in Iraq/Afghanistan are sucking up supply, which is causing the price to be substantially higher than ammo of comparable cost basis.

Eventually, we will see a glut of 5.56 on the market, and I predict the price will go down to about $275/case, which should account for the increase in the base components prices we've seen over the past 3 years.

RockyMtnTactical
January 19, 2008, 02:37 AM
Don't count on it.

nalioth
January 19, 2008, 03:07 AM
Maybe I'll get a 9mm AR for the time being then. It just sucks that I can now afford to buy an AR, but would be severely limited in shooting it Just get a M261 (http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&safe=off&q=m261+conversion+ar15&btnG=Search) conversion unit and shoot .22 LR

Just as much fun and vastly cheaper.

Just make sure you get a military surplus one, and not a Ciener or other aftermarket unit.

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