Need to be sure my disaster preparations are up to date.


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chaim
September 15, 2003, 03:57 PM
Hurricane Isabel, currently a Catagory 5 hurricane (the worst, only three have ever hit the US), is on track to hit my area. They expect it to come onshore somewhere between NC and NJ (I'm right in the middle) and one report has it hitting NC, following the coast to the Cheasapeake Bay and then leaving the coast and tracking up the bay:what: .

I am about 2 hours from the beach so if it hits or tracks up the coast it is bad enough we will see potentially damaging winds but it probably won't be too bad. If it tracks up the bay it can be bad (I am only about 10-15miles from the bay the way the crow flies).

So I need to check my emergency preparations just in case:
-I have about 3 gallons of fresh water. I'll be buying more because if the water supply becomes contaminated it could well take a week before it is drinkable again.
-A fair amount of canned food, but I'll be buying more.
-A camp stove and gas (to be used outdoors only)
-3 good flashlights and one extra set of batteries for each
-A battery powered radio with one extra set of batteries
-Most of my guns are at home and not in my storage unit- being a concrete and cinder block building with few windows I'll probably take all but one or two to the storage unit since it is less likely to be damaged than my house (though I don't know the quality of their roof, but even so I'm not on the top floor).
-I'll keep one or two handguns and my SKS at home with plenty of ammo. I live about a mile from a fair amount of section 8 housing so this is a must if there may be a chance of more than a few hours without power- those who thought it a good idea to tear down the projects and move the residents to the burbs (including some fairly affluent areas) should be forced to live in the neighborhoods they ruined:fire: .
-A tent ready in case the house becomes too damaged to stay in it
-A couple days clothing and a sheet in a waterproof bag in case of damage to the house

So am I overlooking anything or am I ok?

Good luck to all of us who may be in the path of this storm.

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DorGunR
September 15, 2003, 04:08 PM
chaim....I believe you have just about everything covered except a night time light source such as candles, coleman lantern, kerosene lamp, etc.
I'm just about 20 minutes from you in Severn, MD and I'm doing exactly as you.
I once lived on the Texas Gulf coast and I've been thru a hurricane before and I don't look forward to another one.:(

MagKnightX
September 15, 2003, 04:10 PM
I live right next to DC, so yeah, I'm a leetle concerned. Don't live near Section 8, and in a very low-crime area, so we haven't been stockpiling ammo. Making a run to Costco today. Maybe I'll get to miss school:p.

BTW, Isabel has weakened and slowed a little. THIS (http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabeltracking091503-11am.jpg) is the projected path as of 11am today.

Better hunker down, East-coasters.

AJ Dual
September 15, 2003, 04:16 PM
Dry food items that are well sealed, like granola or cookie bars in foil/mylar packaging to break the monotony if you have to live off the canned food.

A camping stove (propane, not whitegas) is as "safe" indoors as a regular gas stove. Although ventilation is never a bad idea.

First aid kit?

Plywood and double headed "puller" temporary type nails for boarding broken windows.

Cash?

Cell phone, extra battery if you can't charge it.

Any extra perscription meds. or diabetic supplies, extra asthma inhaler?

1-2 gallons of Chlorox or generic bleach (unscented) to treat water in case of extended emergency, or to supply unprepared neighbors with potable water.

A safe and waterproof packet of important documents like your insurance policy, marriage and birth certificates.

Water should be a minimum of one gallon per person per day, drinking and cooking alone, in a moderate to no exertion environment with shade. Double it for hot weather or exertion (like clearing debris, trees etc.) Perhaps you'd want to fill a bathtub for flushing water assuming the sewers aren't backed up.

Two liter soda bottles rinsed with a drop of bleach works well for water storage, do not use gallon milk or store water bottles, they are for short term use only.

Chainsaw, saw, axe, prybar, and rope, for clearing downed trees, helping neighbors out of collapsed houses.

Pet food? Kennel carrier to restrain, or "rescue" a frightened pet?

Just a few ideas off the top of my head.

fish2xs
September 15, 2003, 04:17 PM
get more water. general rule of thumb is one gallon per person per day. do your math appropriately. stock up on non-drinking water for flushing toilets, bathing, etc too. get as much of that as you can store in garbage cans, etc. you can always dump it... more ammo probably wouldn't hurt either :) will you evac?

good luck!

Mal H
September 15, 2003, 04:27 PM
I'm as worried as the rest of you "neighbors". I've already got a stash of emergency supplies and equipment. Time will tell if it's the right stuff.

That's a well thought out list Andrew of 'other' things to think about. I would add to the list some large tarps in case a tree or two takes a liking to your roof. You won't keep all the rain out, but it couldn't hurt. But, everyone needs to be careful if you do have to go up on the roof. Getting everything rain soaked is a much better alternative than losing your life.

My water situation is pretty good since we have well water and a generator. Deep well water shouldn't become contaminated by any surface problems. I had to test the generator/pump system during the past winter when the electricity was off for about 36 hours. Everything worked as planned. I have lots of gasoline in safe storage on a just-in-case basis.

I don't know what it is about those firey female Latin named hurricanes. The last one that hit here was Camille in '69. After it was all over, a beautiful cabin we had on a calm little creek in Rockbridge County was found about 200 yards down the 'river'.

Ukraine Train
September 15, 2003, 04:32 PM
This bites, I'm going to NYC this weekend to go sight seeing and see some friends from home. I'm staying at my friend's house on Long Island right by the coast. :cuss:

DAT
September 15, 2003, 04:34 PM
copy of insurance policy with contact information
list of valuables for insurance claims
recent bank and credit card statements listing account numbers
full tank of gas in car/truck
get lots and lots of water
coffee, tobacco, smokes - after a disaster is a bad time to quit cold turkey


good luck
dat

ARGarrison
September 15, 2003, 04:40 PM
http://www.equipped.org/earthqk.htm

That is a good check list to start with.

hso
September 15, 2003, 04:42 PM
Put your stuff in the storage shed and get out of Dodge. The best place to be when a hurricane hits is anywhere else.

If you can't for some reason (can't imagine what that might be) try the following -

Scrub your tub and bleach it then fill it with water and add 1 tbs household bleach per gallon. If the house is inhabitable, but you end up with contaminated water then you drink the tub water until it's back on. If you're not comfortable doing that then go to the hardware/housewares store and buy seveal cheap garbage cans. If plastic, wash them out, bleach and fill with tap water treated as above. If metal then use plastic liners and fill and treat. 1 gal per person is minimum.

You may want to protect the windows now by boarding or duct taping as a minimum. Use a double X pattern and border for taping.

Add more batteries. You'll be shocked how fast they get eaten up when that's the light you're depending on.

Get a lantern. A good 20 lb propane bottle with propane lantern combo is a great comfort.

Good luck.

Apple a Day
September 15, 2003, 04:42 PM
One other thing to think about: Bring in anything you have outside. Any deck chairs, planters, grills, etc... so they don't become projectiles in the wind.
Emergency numbers are nice to have around for contacts in case you are incapacitated and they need to get in touch with your family.

Storm's eye is forecast to pass a few miles west of my place. The wife and I are already discussing heading down to Atlanta. My wife and daughter are definitely going. I am undecided about going myself, yet. Some of that will depend on work.
Good luck, everybody. Keep your powder (and everything else) dry.

Hutch
September 15, 2003, 04:47 PM
I think you're a little short on the batteries. In continuous operation, std incandescent bulbs, as opposed to LED's, chew thru batteries very quickly.

For the short-term, the chlorine bleach tip is a good idea. If you'd like to make a preparation that'll last decades if need be, the dry-granulated pool chlorine (sodium hypochlorite) has a limitless shelf/potency life, unlike plastic bottles of bleach. If you can still find a water filter to remove the chlorine prior to drinking, that's a great idea as well. A tip from my y2k hysteria days... See if you can find a soft-drink bottling plant in the area. They are not uncommon, and will prob'ly have a listing in the Yeller Pages. They receive soft-drink syrup in 55gal food-grade plastic containers. They are usually available free or at low cost, like 5 bux. After they've been washed out w/ soap and water, they can be filled w/ potable water with a shot of the chlorine bleach, and provide good cheap storage.

Well, you did ask....

gun-fucious
September 15, 2003, 04:57 PM
http://www.thehighroad.org/attachment.php?s=&postid=487735

updated tracking map:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/images/isabeltracking091503-11am.jpg

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s2072.htm

me thinks the Thursday commute in DC may be a tad damp

The last really big storm in the area had 1 foot of storm surge at Alexandria

i have seen the GW parkway submerged from a good thunderstorm

2 weeks ago 50 MPH winds dropped a 70 foot pine tree on my roof

i imagine 125 mph winds will be interesting

Ed N.
September 15, 2003, 04:58 PM
Scanner radio (make sure it has trunk tracking if your local PD/FD is on a trunked system); most have NOAA weather built in

CB and/or an FRS/GMRS radio might be handy

Candles

Heavyduty trash bags (handy for all sorts of things - clean-up, leak repair,
carrying water, taking a poop in if the toilets are unusable, etc.)

Disposable camera (photos for insurance claims)

Rope

Cuddly member of opposite sex

Edward429451
September 15, 2003, 05:02 PM
I think that if you store water in dubious non food grade containers (and treat it) that it should still be boiled before drinking. A gallon a day per person...including pets.

chaim
September 15, 2003, 05:06 PM
chaim....I believe you have just about everything covered except a night time light source such as candles, coleman lantern, kerosene lamp, etc
That is what the flashlights are for (some are more appropriately called battery powered lanterns). I'm not really comfortable with the idea of using a fuel burning lantern indoors (fire and carbon monoxide hazard) and candles can be a fire hazard as well.

First aid kit?
Have a couple actually.

Cash
Good idea, I hadn't thought about that. If the power is out the local stop and rob or supermarkets may open before the power comes back on in which case cards would be useless.

Pet food? Kennel carrier to restrain, or "rescue" a frightened pet?
Another good idea. We have plenty of cat food, but the cat is as nevous and neurotic as you'll find- we should have the carrier ready for her.



will you evac? Personally, no. I don't live near the beach, nor am I too close to a river or other major body of water so I'm not too worried about flooding (and the elevation on which the house sits is just high enough that flash flooding and basement flooding usually isn't too big a problem).

coffee, tobacco, smokes - after a disaster is a bad time to quit cold turkey I don't drink coffee except on rare occasions, beer might not be a bad idea though. I have plenty of pipe tobacco, maybe I'll pick up a cigar or two as well.

Put your stuff in the storage shed and get out of Dodge. The best place to be when a hurricane hits is anywhere else.I don't know, I'm inland enough that it will be somewhat weakened before it gets here and flooding isn't too major an issue. The biggest worries are a tree through the roof or a major power outage. In both cases, especially with what moved near my neighborhood in the past few years (section 8) I don't want to leave anything unattended.

You may want to protect the windows now by boarding or duct taping as a minimum. Use a double X pattern and border for taping. Yup, forgot to mention that but this is certainly part of the plan. Though I was originally thinking of using masking tape (so as not to have to go to the hardware store) but that probably isn't strong enough.


More batteries might not hurt. If things go on for longer than expected I do have some camping lanterns that I could use (outdoors). I also neglected to mention: waterproof matches, one of those magneseum firestarters, "firestarters" kindling that work wet, tons of pressurized campstove/lantern gas and tons of books (I'll put some into waterproof storage just in case).

Ala Dan
September 15, 2003, 05:11 PM
Step #1- Proceed to the safest room of the house or building.

Step #2- Drop pant's, and stick head between leg's.

Step #3- Thrust head upward and KISS rear end good-bye!

Step #4- If the threat ceases to exist; remove head* and
contiune on your way.

*If head is stuck, call 1-800 BIG DOG to remove it! (LOL)

JOKINGLY, OF COURSE !

I could not resist once I saw the thread topic; but on a more
serious note, everbody needs a top notch diaster plan. In
case of fire, tornados, hurricanes, straight line winds, or
other diasters people might only have seconds to evacuate?
Time might be of the essence; and the life you save, might
be YOUR"S.

Best Wishes,
Ala Dan, N.R.A. Life Member

Quantrill
September 15, 2003, 05:25 PM
I was thinking of flying the plane west to WV such as the AF does rather than let it get stuck on the ground.

Brian Dale
September 15, 2003, 05:54 PM
Hi - I'm just down the road from you, 20 minutes SW of Raleigh, NC. I'm well inland, too, but Fran in 1995 and Floyd in 199-what-9? gave us some practice around here. I'm not telling anyone the ONLY way to do things, or even claiming that these are the RIGHT ways. They seem to have increased my comfort in previous storms.

{Edited to add: and I'm sorry for any redundancies. I started typing when there were three posts up. Sorry Andrew & following; I didn't see yours}

More batteries and more water are the first things that come to mind. Lots of spare batteries for all of your flashlights and other gear. If you have a portable TV - they devour batteries. Get a cheap five-pack of plastic lighters that you will ~ never ~ use to light any flammable liquids or gases. Light a stick, light a piece of rolled-up paper; you're shooters: you know how to handle fire.

For water, big plastic storage bins are nice. I use the covered ones the size of laundry baskets, but w/o holes, of course. They cost a few bucks (as in three, maybe four). You want good, clean drinking water AND you'll want more saved water than you expect to need for washing. Keep drinking water separate from washing water. I don't remember how long my (city) water was off after Fran. It might have been four days at my house. The power was out for five days. I showered and made Coffee, Real, Blessed Coffee, at the lab where I worked. Power was back up after 18 hours there. Thermoses are wonderful. Instant coffee for home if you or your neighbors drink it. Coffee's a great thing to be able to offer people. You could even trade it for help with stuff.

I'd get (I already have) a couple of jugs of bleach. I'm not afraid to tell people what they already know (I'm a safety weenie), so please don't be insulted when I point out that you want the Regular flavor bleach, not the Mountain Fresh, or Lemon Yippee, or SpringTimeFloral, or whatever other scented bleach they have. I fill the tubs with water, add a bit of bleach to stabilize it. DO NOT NOT NOT use it in sanitizing strength; use Boy Scout proportions - I don't have it in front of me but it MIGHT - and please look it up - be 1 or 2 drops per gallon. {edited to remove stupid comment here} In eastern North Carolina, though, water supply was a problem for quite a while after Floyd. Have a supply of straight bleach available for after the storm: it's handy (edit: after dilution) for cleaning and sanitizing things. If you get hit by the brunt of the storm, you will get dirty over the following few days. You will feel dirty. Your kids will be dirty. It'll make those first showers when everything comes back on Very nice.

EXTRA can openers. At least one, or even lots of spare 99 cent can openers, in different places, so there's always one around.

NOW, before the storm, is the time to eat the food in your fridge that it would be a shame to lose if the power were out for, say, five days (my house, then in Durham, Fran). Venison, that salmon filet, the truffles. Don't plan to have ready access to ice or dry ice; companies and donors ship a lot of it into the area, but there are a lot of people without working refrigerators, all at the same time. It is morally wrong to let things like ice cream melt and be ruined, so dish up!

A full freezer (deep freeze) will stay cold w/o power for longer than a partly-full one, so that's one Wild-Engineer's Guess that you'll want to make when the time comes: how long do I expect to be w/o power? Look at the storm track, duration of past power outages from ice storms, phase of the moon, tea leaves. Flip a coin. If you lose power, leave the freezer closed as long as you can. Have a supply of whatever you'd enjoy eating if you were going camping for several days w/o refrigeration.

Lots of wind, even if it's not horrendous all by itself, topples trees because the forces they're exposed to exceed the normal stresses that they've grown with. Storms "prune" a lot of dead branches every year. The differences we saw around here were due to a lot of bigger branches, and entire trees, having grown large while being sturdy enough to survive our normal regimen of storms, but not being strong enough to handle slightly stronger winds. The problem is that these things are all falling at once. On power lines. On roads. On houses.

Floyd just sat on top of us for a long time; the big problem for us was all of the rain. Worse, it had been preceded by Dennis, which hung out on the coast for a couple of days, with rain stretching well inland. The ground was saturated before Floyd got here, so more big trees toppled over.

Then tree-clearing crews have to clear the roads, mile after mile, so that the power crews can begin to restore power. Do not try to learn to use a chainsaw now. Any injury (and there were lots from chainsaws in homeowners' hands here after those storms) is much more serious if the phones are out and the paramedics can't get to you anyway because the roads are impassable. Relax, play games with the kids, check on LittleOldLadies, yak with the neighbors.

My severely limited, narrow, NONprofessional, amateur, bug's-eye view of the Tactical situation through only my own two eyes as I saw my little corner of it was this:

Fran: Durham turned into a quiet, friendly little place with everyone getting along. The night of the storm, I worked with a senior technical guy in the company - we did emergency shutdowns on a lot of expensive equipment and covered it all with tarps. Oh yeah - get TARPS to cover your computer and similar stuff. Back to the topic: it's nice to work with other shooters. They have compatible views on the wisdom of being able to stay safe from harm when things are unpredictable. Nobody tried to break into the lab - they were too busy cleaning out all of the jewelry stores at the mall, and our building was pretty nondescript. The city was quiet, in general. YMMV!

No problems with Floyd: I'm surrounded by rednecks now, and they're all armed and friendly. Everybody knows everybody else. Black, white - nobody cares. It's a small town. Lost power here for a couple of days; didn't lose county water.

Great lands, this is long! Sorry to those who aren't interested. To sum up, you could add some more of these:
Water. Batteries. Garbage bags, and Tarps if you want. Can Openers and Coffee. Various containers. First Aid Kits. And I can't evaluate anybody else's self-defense choices; I don't have the experience or skill for that.

Downed Power Lines - there's NO safe way to handle them. Downed telephone lines can have downed power lines lying across them, just out of sight in the trees. All you can do is to stay away.

And never drive through water flowing across the roadway.

CMcDermott
September 15, 2003, 06:05 PM
It hasn't been mentioned yet, so I will - your Hot Water heater is a good source of drinking water, better than a bathtub full of water. Just turn off the inlet valve (and outlet valve if you have one) as the storm hits to keep it from getting containimated. There is typically a hose tap at the bottom of the tank, and 30-50 gallons of clean fresh water inside.

Brian Dale
September 15, 2003, 06:21 PM
Also:

Fill the gas tanks in your cars tonight or tomorrow; top them off on Wednesday / Thursday.

If you're traveling, LEAVE EARLY - even to go home from work. I was foolish and followed my boss' orders when Floyd was approaching: my 25-minute drive home took two and a half hours because I didn't leave early enough. I had it easy: I could take the back roads. Westbound traffic on Interstate 40 was stop-and-go from Wilmington to Greensboro (about 200 miles).

{Edited to add, for clarity: (I changed jobs and moved out to the country between Fran and Floyd}

Mal H
September 15, 2003, 06:30 PM
Nice catch CMcDermott. I came back to mention the hot water tank supply of fresh water.

One other item to consider is your phone. A cell phone is a good idea if it works at your location, mine doesn't - faint, unpredictable signal. Most modern phones need AC power to work. Some will work off of standby batteries, some don't. Some will ring, some won't. To be on the safe side, you should test your phones with them unplugged to see if you have one that will work without AC including the ringer (have someone call you). I have stashed away an old "analog" phone to use in cases like this. All it needs is to be plugged in to the phone line, no external or internal power source is needed. Of course if your phone lines go down, ignore the preceding, but be sure you have a CB radio that is in good working order.

4v50 Gary
September 15, 2003, 06:53 PM
Shortwave radio. Know your repeater stations. Having a ham license can be handy in an emergency (you might wind up helping out your community).

OK, personal stuph.

Get your driver's license, birth certificate, bank account, stock certificates, vehicle registration & insurance, deed or mortgage, any important contracts, diplomas and xerox them. Have one set in your safety deposit box and another out of town. If a disaster hits, you can get back on your feet quicker if you can prove who you are, what your are, and for FEMA or other disaster $, what you lost. Video your home and do a lot of clear, still shots to prove what chattel you had. Keep tapes current and not at your home. You might consider having extra set of stuph out of state in case it's regional.

Medicine? Need any? Stock then up and rotate frequently. Include aspirins, ibuprofen (keeps swelling down), vitamins, water purification (filter & tablet) devices. Water is more important than food. Keep some tarps around cuz they can be used to collect condensation. Rope too (string up the tarps).

Fire extinguisher & shovel. Why shovel? Snuff fires, create firelines and dig shelters. You set up your tent in winter & you freeze. Dig it halfway down and it'll be a mite bit warmer. Shovels are good for "sinks" (to use Civil War parlance). Keep the feces below ground level for health purposes.

Toilet paper. Go ahead, laugh and if you have to use leaves, well, you'd wish you had paper. Soap. Good to have bars of soap just for hygiene & keep infestation down (lice, etc.). Toothpaste & dental floss.

Enough said.

Sean Cloherty
September 16, 2003, 12:29 AM
I might suggest Cyalume sticks for lighting. They last up to 12 hours, produce no toxic fumes, are non-flammable, and won't ignite any leaking gas, propane, NG, etc.

gun-fucious
September 16, 2003, 10:42 AM
all of my rechargable AC power supplies and my brinkman spot light are plugged in and charging

i am going to hook up drainage pipe to my gutters tonight to keep the roof water away from my foundation



...ISABEL CONTINUING NORTHWESTWARD...BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED...

A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND...SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 660
MILES...1065 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 435 MILES...700 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

LARGE OCEAN SWELLS AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY BEING
EXPERIENCED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
COASTS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND
THE ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...26.6 N... 70.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST.


>>>>>>



THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS ALL FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. WHILE THIS TROUGH MAY NOT REDUCE THE SHEAR...IT COULD
PROVIDE A BETTER OUTFLOW PATTERN AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO SUSTAIN
OR STRENGTHEN THE STORM. ON THE OTHER HAND...ISABEL'S BROAD WIND
FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM MIGHT BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO A MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THUS MIGHT MOVE ASHORE BEFORE
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS. FIRST...CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR AS FORECAST BY
THE SHIPS MODEL. SECOND...CONTINUED SHORT-TERM WEAKENING FOLLWED
BY RE-INTENSIFICATION AS ISABEL APPROACHES THE COAST. THIRD...A
RELATIVELY STEADY-STATE HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE THIRD SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

foghornl
September 16, 2003, 11:04 AM
How far inland are you?

I stayed in North Charleston, SC in 1989 during Hurricane Hugo with a mere 135 MPH wind. Brought down my station's 1670 Ft TV Broadcast tower. [I was Assistant Chief Engineer] Hugo was still wreaking major havoc way up into North Carolina, as I recall. Hugo's inland path was essentially along I-26 to Columbia, SC, then generally along I-77.

Will I ride out another Hurricane [insert name here] ? ? ?

Not now...Not ever

Here is a link to the history of Hugo:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1989hugo.html

gun-fucious
September 16, 2003, 01:31 PM
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
504 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003

...HURRICANE ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEK...

EARLY THIS MORNING THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.7 WEST OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. ISABEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER BRINGS THE
STORM INLAND ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY. AS WITH ALL
TROPICAL SYSTEMS THERE IS A MARGIN OF ERROR.

WITH LANDFALL SLATED IN TWO DAYS...NOW IS THE TIME TO MAKE
PREPARATIONS. GO OVER YOUR FAMILY DISASTER PLAN. GATHER NON
PERISHABLE FOODS AND BOTTLED WATER. CHECK FLASH LIGHTS AND PORTABLE
RADIOS. GET EXTRA BATTERIES. FILL YOUR VEHICLES WITH FUEL. GATHER
MEDICATIONS AND EXTRA PERSONAL CARE ITEMS. SHOULD YOU HAVE TO
EVACUATE OR MOVE TO A SHELTER...CONSIDER PLANS FOR PET CARE.

AS THE STORM NEARS THE COAST...THE STORM TRACK FORECAST WILL BE
BETTER DEFINED. LANDFALLING HURRICANES CAN PRODUCE VIOLENT WINDS...
TORNADOES...FLOODING RAINS...AND INUNDATION OF COASTAL AREAS BY
STORM SURGE AND TIDAL FLOODING.

FROM THE CURRENT TRACK...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A FAST MOVER.
A FAST MOVING STORM IS GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER WINDS. IF
THE STORM SLOWS DOWN...EXCEPT HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS. STORMS OF
SIMILAR HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE ARE THE CHESAPEAKE-POTOMAC HURRICANE
IN 1933 AND HURRICANE HAZEL IN 1954.

ALL ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS ON HURRICANE ISABEL
THIS WEEK. BE READY TO TAKE ACTION IF A WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE
AREA. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES ON THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. YOU CAN
ALSO CHECK OUR WEBSITE AT:

WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/LWX

mormonsniper
September 16, 2003, 01:52 PM
Dad cooked on a grill and coleman stove for two weeks (no electricity) when Hugo hit. Get some propane and a burner, portable if you think you might have to transport it. There was no going anywhere after Hugo went through Charleston. Trees down all over the place.


Dad said there was a chinese restaraunt that fed LOTS of people that couldn't feed themselves. Propane tanks and burners were brought outside the restaurant and fed people for days. Go stir-fry & tofu!

spartacus2002
September 16, 2003, 04:58 PM
I've heard that modern cars have anti-siphon devices in the fuel filler. Don't know if that's true, but it could cause a problem if you plan to use your car's fuel tank as a gasoline storage container.

NewShooter78
September 16, 2003, 05:45 PM
Just wanted to add a few things that we have in our hurricane supply kit.

-Inflatable raft, you never know when water might be an issue, so don't take the chance.
-MREs are a cheap way to keep food around. Not the best tasting in the world, but they do make non military ones now.
-propane or charcoal for an outside bbq grill. When the power is out and you have some meat that is still good, its better than MREs or Spam. Might think about securing grill to the house with a chain if at all possible.
-plenty of toilet paper! and paper towels. paper plates are good too.

Everything else that has been mentioned is good sound advice too. We have a generator if we decide to stay for a small hurricane so usually power isn't the issue, but keeping a ready supply of gasoline is. Another thing we have done is built in hook eyes around the shed (ist a metal DIY kind) so we can secure it to the foundation its built on.

Something to also do in the long run, because it won't be of any use to you days before a storm hits, is too keep a watch on any trees close to your home. If they are rotted or eaten out by termites, they have to go.

JeepDriver
September 16, 2003, 06:29 PM
I gased up the chain saw, have plenty of 9mm and 12GA as well as about 200 rounds of 7.62x39 (I know I should have more, but we went shooting week before last and I haven't ordered any more :uhoh:) I'll gas up both Jeeps on Thursday, Have 32 liters of water stored, in the form of 16 2 liter bottles. 6 of those bottles are in the freezer right now. I always keep a couple hundred $ in with the guns, as just in case money. We've got plenty of non-parishable food in the house as well. Have propane for the coleman stove and lantern, as well as 2 4-D Cell Mag lights and my Sure Fire. I'll keep the cell phone on their chargers while we're home, plus we have car chargers for both phones.

Only thing left to get is the Beer. I'll be picking that up on the way home from work tomorrow!

chaim
September 17, 2003, 12:27 AM
NC had already declared a state of emergency. I don't know about VA. Governor Ehrlich here in MD just signed a "storm emergency" at 11pm tonight and called up the National Guard. Looks like everyone is trying to be prepared.

The hurricane looks like it has stabalized as a Catagory 2, with 110-115mph winds. Some reports have said that conditions are right for it to strengthen again before coming ashore however.

I'm pretty much ready though. I'm sure there is something I forgot (you always think of something later) but probably nothing urgent.

It is a little scary that they seem to think it will take the same basic route as the 1933 (unnamed) Maryland/Virginia hurricane and 1954's Hurricane Hazel, both of which were very bad inland around here. But who knows, we may get lucky, and even if we don't it should weaken before it gets here (northern North Carolina and southern VA residents good luck, it looks like you'll be hit first, and hardest, though I'm sure most of you aren't online right now- probably taking advantage of every moment to prepare). However, some reports say the winds may be as low as 35-50mph (still bad enough for major damage) and some say it can be as bad as 75-80. Also, it has been a really wet year and we really don't need the rain- Baltimore is over 10" over normal and DC is nearly 20" over. 10" or so in only a few hours and there will be some major problems. Heck, in some local areas there were some major flooding problems from just a normal thunderstorm the ground is so saturated. Also, the Baltimore news reported that if it does go up the bay (it still could, though it will probably be further west) there could be 3-4' whitecaps at the Baltimore Inner Harbor which would put pretty much all of the business district under water:what: . Lets hope it goes west as expected so that won't happen (though that will still be pretty bad for the area).

Norton
September 17, 2003, 06:01 AM
One think I haven't seen anyone mention is back ups for the sump pump. We have a very active drain tile system and back in June when we got all of that rain, the pump was running every 10 minutes or so.

I have one of those combination battery pack/inverters that you get at the boat supply store. That way if the power goes out I can plug the pump into the inverter.

If the battery back gives out, I can use the hand operated bilge pump......

greyhound
September 18, 2003, 03:42 PM
here it comes....

My company sent us all home from work at 3:00 PM. Ever since the big blizzard this winter, and the terrorism cautions with the Iraq war, I've been stocking up, so I'm fairly ready:

-11 cases bottled water (how long will that last for 1 (maybe 2) 2 people, 1 dog?)
-enough canned food/PowerBars, etc to last all for 1 week (including dog food)
-first aid kit
-hand crank/battery radio (with TV audio)
- Remington 870 Wingmaster 20 ga. w/3 #6 in the pipe and 5 #3 Buck in a butt cuff
-S&W 64 4" w/6 +P Glaser Safety Slugs and 2 speedloaders of CorBon 110 gr +P
-lots of extra ammo for both.
-flashlights on every floor/lots of batteries/lots of candles
-extra $300 from ATM


My biggest minus is lack of power if the electricity goes off, esp. the sump pump. I did purchase extra insurance for flooded basement a couple years ago, and reread the policy last night and I appear to be covered. I should get a back up power source ASAP (all sold out here!)

Other than that, my biggest concern is getting the durn dog to go for his PM walk, he HATES to get wet! :D

Good luck to all the fellow THRs in Isabel's path.

JeepDriver
September 18, 2003, 05:32 PM
5:30pm.

She's just getting here.

Wind is kicking up and rain is starting to blow.

And I've still gotta walk the dog!

gun-fucious
September 18, 2003, 06:36 PM
i just chainsawed up a pear tree that fell from one neighbors yard, across another neighbors driveway. I'm about 25 miles north of the District. Not much rain yet and i figured the neighbors might need to go somewhere later and i prefer to chainsaw while its light out.

i just set up my weather station this afternoon, we are getting 20 mph winds with 40 mph gusts. Yep, up on the roof setting up an anemometer. Funny what gets my round-tuit in gear.

:p

greyhound
September 18, 2003, 07:37 PM
And I've still gotta walk the dog!


Jeepdriver-

Good luck with your pooch. Just got back with one VERY unhappy dog. Poor feller got hit with a flying branch. I'll towel him down and give him a biscuit and he'll be right as rain (no pun intended) til morning.

Lights are flickering some, though.

g-hound

justashooter
September 18, 2003, 08:54 PM
4 WD Ford pick 'em up truck with two tanks of gas, 45 with a couple of spare mags to make sure the road stays clear, and a babe to ride in the middle of the seat and block the rear view mirror with her country music awards hair-do.

almost forgot - two six packs of red and white, and some wine coolers for the tang.

chaim
September 18, 2003, 11:54 PM
So far it hasn't been too bad here.

Apparently it took longer than expected to change to a more northerly track so we won't be hit quite as hard. Still, over a quarter million in and around Baltimore are without power. My county has a total population of about 150K and 16,000 households are without power (figure an average of 2.5 people per household and that is 40K out of 150K are without power). The lights have flickered a few times but haven't yet gone out here (obviously:D ). Flooding is a major concern. The next big concern (wind is still an issue since we haven't seen our worst yet, but it likely won't be too bad- currently around 30-40mph) is the storm surge which won't be hitting the bay and rivers until sometime around 2am. Also, the ground is quite saturated so flash flooding is likely as well (the one local death was due to someone dying in their car due to either hydroplaning or a flash flood depending upon the report you listen to). Of course, many trees and tree limbs are down and a few people have lost roofs or had trees fall on their house. Still it is much better than it could have been (Virginia has over 1.3 million without power and Virginia Beach has had major damage). While it looks like the western part of the state is going to have it even worse than expected and we'll be somewhat spared I don't want to get too confident here.

There is some flooding already. The Fells Point neighborhood in Baltimore is under 1-2 feet of water and the rain is still hard and the storm surge hasn't come yet. Apparently the Annapolis harbor area is flooding. Last I heard the water at the Inner Harbor in Baltimore was expected to rise, possibly flooding some of the Inner Harbor area (but I don't know if it has). Some communities have been evacuated.

Also, one local county (Anne Arundel) is asking residents to conserve water and to not flush toilets due to trouble at their water treatment facilities. They aren't yet telling their residents that the water is contaminated yet and no other locality has similar reports.

Those of you further west, my thoughts and prayers are with you. If you are in the Pittsburgh area good luck- last I saw the report said that it will be aiming for Indiana, PA on its current track.


Update:

In the past 30 min the numbers without power have greatly increased. Over 300K in the Baltimore area. Over 20K in my county now (2.5 people per household would equal about 50K or 1/3 of the population). Likely those numbers will increase substantially since the worst wind hasn't come yet, and several more inches of rain are likely to come as well (saturated ground helps trees to come down). They won't even start to try to get power re-established until sometime tomorrow so for some it might simply be a long time.

I'm guessing I'll be disappearing for a time before long. The power has more than flickered now a couple times. We almost lost power (went out for 2-3 seconds) twice. I'm guessing that means that we'll probably lose it soon. Should that happen, I guess I'll see you guys in a few days.

chaim
September 19, 2003, 01:28 AM
You know, I better take the "not so bad" back. Not many casualties. However, we seem to be getting hit bad by floods (not me personally though). They are currently showing pictures of Baltimore's Inner Harbor. Has anyone here been to Harborplace in Baltimore? Well, the walkway in front of it is totally covered with water. From the pictures on TV it looks that the water is on the steps to enter the Harborplace mall. It isn't yet hightide (though it will be soon). There is a good chance that the Harborplace mall and even Light Street might be flooded. How about the ESPN Zone (the first one, here in Baltimore) and Baltimore Hard Rock Cafe? Pictures are showing flood waters right up to the building there. That plus the Annapolis and Fells Point flooding alone can be millions and millions of dollars of damage (and in Annapolis and Fells Point it can damage some very historical buildings).

I guess it will be hard to tell what the damage actually is until tomorrow after the storm is over and the sun comes up so the people can get out and actually survey the damage.

chaim
September 19, 2003, 09:55 AM
Personally my neighborhood is fine. I haven't left the court yet though. In my court there are a lot of fallen branches, but only one felled tree.

Watching TV it seems that flood damage is bad, far worse than expected. Light Street and Pratt Street in Baltimore are flooded, the Inner Harbor is badly flooded, Annapolis is flooded, just about every community that is on the bay is under water, Fells Point is badly flooded, rivers are flooded. Near me, my brother tells me that Ellicott City is (surprisingly) not yet flooded but the river is still rising-fast. The greatest surprise is that low tide has not come and gone and instead of the water levels dropping they are still rising- there is great concern about the next high tide.

Don't expect most MD, DC, and VA THRers to be online for a while. I may be in one of the few neighborhoods that still have power. Well over a million in VA are without power. In the Baltimore area there are over 600K without power. In my county they are reporting over 60K without power (they are saying people so I don't know 100% sure if they mean people or households, if households about 90% are probably without power, people it is 35-40% without power). Also, as more trees fall (weakened roots from the saturated ground will cause even more to fall despite the end of the storm for us) more will lose power.

If you are in western PA be prepared. As you probably know by now it is coming at you. With your layout flooding will also be an issue. If you are on low ground do not try to stay home.

JeepDriver
September 19, 2003, 12:01 PM
This is my parents street as of 6am this morning.
http://www.fototime.com/9309B69D5EECDB8/standard.jpg

Their house is on Bear Creek in Dundalk. The house is about 100 ft off to the right of the photo. There was 2 ft of water in the house @ 6am high tide isn't until 1pm

spartacus2002
September 20, 2003, 03:44 PM
Newport News, VA, survived OK. I just got power back after being out since noon Thursday. BUt, thanks to this and another threat, I was pretty well prepared.

The best tips that came in handy:
--turn fridge/freezer to highest setting
--buy several bags of ice to keep in freezer. Once power goes out, move 1 at a time to the fridge to keep it cool. Once that no longer works, use the freezer as the fridge. We kept stuff cool over 72 hours like that.

Lotsa folks bought no food, and had no gas when it hit.

Luckily, a local AM station kept up continuous coverage Wednesday thru Friday (except for midnight to 6am), with sitreps and weather updates. After it was over, they took calls from folks alerting everyone to where there was power, ice, food, and gas for sale.

Great community effort by all.

Apple a Day
September 20, 2003, 04:52 PM
I finally got through to my parents in Poquoson. They refused to leave. My mother insisted that she had made it through Andrew in Florida and would ride out this one with no problems. The water made it up to their door and they live nearly dead center of the town. The garage is soaked and their Saturn is shorted dead. It got up to the steering wheel. My mother was in hysterics when I got through. She said, never again would she try to ride something like this out. I have a lot of work to do clearing dead trees from their yard.
A couple of other friends have checked in. It sounds like Poquoson has been ravaged. We bugged out, went to Cleveland (man, Ohio SUCKS! esp. driving through Akron!) and will return in the morning.
Firefighters in Poquoson abandoned their station down Messick way and fell back to the #2 station on Wythe Creek Rd. It supposedly didn't flood there and we live within spitting distance from that station. I've got my fingers crossed.
Friends in Newport News said they are without power but their phones work. Quite a few neighbors of friends got tree-falling damage but they themselves got lucky. I hope some of that luck rubbed off on me.
Spartacus, check your PM

Norton
September 20, 2003, 05:50 PM
Just got power back on at 5:45pm EDT on Saturday.....43 hours after going out. Annapolis (except for City Dock area) did not fair to badly.....we got next to no rain and the wind was not all that awful. I slept through the night no problem.

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