The good side of the gun buying panic.


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harmonic
November 13, 2008, 03:40 PM
Come January there's gwin be some changes made. I doubt even the mighty O knows zactly what up.

Whatever happens, it's got to go through Congress, and we all know that they blow whichever way the wind goes.

But lately millions of Americans have been buying weapons. And millions of Americans are buying the very type of weapon ("assault" rifles) that the gun grabbers hate.

My personal feeling is that Congress isn't going to want to jeopardize their careers by ticking off the gun buying public. Granted, there are some rabid totalitarian politicians up there, but they're in the minority.

What think ye?

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Rxxdoc
November 13, 2008, 03:44 PM
There are enough Pro-Gun Democrats to keep really severe legislation from going through.

DoubleTapDrew
November 13, 2008, 03:44 PM
If one were a conspiracy theorist type they might think the prez elect was planted to give EBR sales/ownership an unprecedented boost.
Wouldn't it be nice if by the time whomever tries to ban them there are the same number of EBRs as there are citizens? That would throw a stick in the spokes of their gun grabmobile.

esq_stu
November 13, 2008, 03:56 PM
The most restrictive ban possible will be introduced - I don't know when, but there must be a political price for sponsorship. Any bill will get watered down some but it will start out as nothing less than draconian.

The questions are - can it be kept from leaving committee; will we effectively target the weakest links in the house?

Personally, I think those weak links need to be identified now and contacted by people in their respective districts now, before such bills get introduced.

Walkalong
November 13, 2008, 04:04 PM
They will want it all, but it will depend on what they can get passed.

JImbothefiveth
November 13, 2008, 04:08 PM
I think if they try another ban it will be similiar to the '94 ban, but possibly with some handgun bans thrown in.(They actually did just that, but the bill died.)
I wouldn't expect a sunset clause thrown in this time, but perhaps some republican can add it on

Ragnar Danneskjold
November 13, 2008, 04:10 PM
How many EBR sales are to totally new owners, and how many are to people who were already gun owners and pro RKBA? I for one don't know any new owners. I'm not sure the increase in sales is really increasing our political clout much, if at all.

oneeyenurse
November 13, 2008, 04:11 PM
They have to grandfather existing guns. They'll find 90% of them reported as stolen if they try to confiscate them.

harmonic
November 13, 2008, 04:33 PM
How many EBR sales are to totally new owners,

I'm seeing a lot of first time buyers.

http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=319635

http://thefiringline.com/forums/showthread.php?t=319705

But I don't think that's relevant. I think all that's relevant is the sheer numbers of those guns being sold. It's an absolute phenomenon.

And I guarantee the politicians are paying very close attention.

hso
November 13, 2008, 04:45 PM
http://www.popandpolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/05/crystal-ball.jpg

SoCalShooter
November 13, 2008, 05:05 PM
There is a lot of first time buyers and I think you have a point that congress and politicians will not want to jeopardized their jobs, however there are some, like Ted Kennedy and a few others who have been there forever and always push the same old thing. The best thing we can really do is get new people interested and out to shoot and make sure we educate them early and then we have to stay on top of the politicians and make sure the ones we do have in office know exactly how we feel.

BHP FAN
November 13, 2008, 05:15 PM
Oneeyenurse,I'll bet you five bucks the new AWB has NO grandfather clause.

FLoppyTOE
November 13, 2008, 05:56 PM
I would hope the new regime has more pressing issues in mind.

mljdeckard
November 13, 2008, 06:04 PM
There's a big difference between what they WANT to do and what they have the time, influence, and political capital to accomplish in the narrow time they control both houses and the WH. Any significant gun legislation on his part would guarantee no second term. Whether or not he has any means to do it in the second term remains to be seen.

And remember, they only way they got the FIRST AWB to pass was with the sunset clause. I fail to see why congress would pass a AWB without one now when they weren't before. Failing to grandfather existing weapons would instantly turn many millions of Americans into instant criminals, and be impossible to enforce, as many of us would surrender posession, but not control. (Hiding them.)

JWF III
November 13, 2008, 07:03 PM
I voted as if Obama got his way. Hopefully, what I've heard is true, and that a lot of the dems voted in the last two go rounds are more of the Southern Democrat (re: Zell Miller in recent times). And have conservative ideals, just standing behind the democratic name.

I know most of Georgia is this way. Heck we'd still have a dem. Senator if Zell didn't want to get out of DC.

Wyman

Zoogster
November 13, 2008, 07:12 PM
If tons of people buy ARs, millions of gun owners then own "assault weapons" and they are in common use.
If most people feed them with standard capacity magazines, they are also in common use.

Under Heller those firearms in common use cannot be restricted.


So I hope everyone buys an "assault weapon" to insure they are the most in common use firearm there is.

springer7676
November 13, 2008, 08:05 PM
It will be the first target in a ban that will eventually include all auto type weapons. Look at Biden's record. Look at Obama's record.

RPCVYemen
November 13, 2008, 08:12 PM
Heck the good news is that in 2 years when there hasn't been an AWB and folks realize there won't be, all of the folk who bought multiple EBRs - particularly those who bought on credit - will be dumping them.

Bargain time!

Mike

Eightball
November 13, 2008, 08:20 PM
I voted for the "Ban 'em all, grandfather clause;" what with the Brady's, Hussein being elected, and the anti's almost having a supermajority, I think they're getting desperate to jam as much garbage through Congress as they can get to, simply because "yes, they can" "hope" for the "change" they "believe" in. But I think they'll try to not have a sunset clause, but realize that if some things aren't grandfathered, it'll be a huge headache for them.

And I also think they're going to try to pass something ASAP in hopes that people will forget about it before the mid-term elections--I mean, let's face it, the American people have a short attention span, unfortunately.

woo18
November 13, 2008, 08:49 PM
These politicians REALLY hate guns. Almost violently anti-gun. Moreover, they learned their lesson last time, when the various mfgs just took off the flash hider and bayonet lug.

Because BHO won by a fairly large margin, they might think they can get anything through.

This next one is going to be bad.

5knives
November 13, 2008, 09:15 PM
Complete AWB Ban, Grandfathered to begin with, followed by registration and disappearance of affordable ammunition. Shortly to be followed by all semi-automatic pistols, same routine. Plus federal revocation of all ccw permits.

All done asap.

ALL among the VERY few things Obama has ever taken a public stand on.

Can be done via Executive order, SCOTUS will rule against (in two years) meanwhile rubber stamp Senate and Congress will pass required laws, taxes and restrictions, by then SCOTUS will be 6-3 lib.

Later comes the confiscation.

Look up what happened in Australia, Canada and Great Britain, it'll just happen much faster here and now.

A lot of people who voted for 'CHANGE' are going to wish they'd asked for a little more clarification on what that 'Change' was going to be.

Expect it before Summer '09, because it's going to start to be interesting as the folks that voted for a free ride discover thy aren't going to get what they thought they were.

JMHO, but I'm right, I've lived and worked in Chicago, I know what a Chicago Ward Politician is. Rest of the country is just starting the process of learning.

If I were more sadistic I'd find it amusing.

Regards,
:)

mljdeckard
November 13, 2008, 10:14 PM
But you must remember, the two justices on the court likely to retire are liberal. And even if he could cram in the ones he wants during the first term, there is no way of knowing how long it will take a challenge to go that high, IF EVER. The principal of Stare Decesis states that when in doubt, the existing ruling will stand. The only reason SCOTUS agreed to hear Heller is it was an issue that was split in the lower courts. You're acting like it's something that happens fast. Part of checks and balances is that it all takes a long time to go through, and it must go through many layers, thus making it very difficult for ANY one man to pack the deck. If it's so easy to get a decision when the court is slightly tilted, why isn't Roe V Wade overturned yet?

He has a clearly stated agenda that will more than fill his calendar for the first two years. Everyone who voted for him with their eyes and jaws clenched shut will be anxiously watching to find out if he made a mistake. He has to keep enough of the people fooled for enough of the time if he wants to get re-elected. The climate was MUCH different in 1994, and the AWB BARELY passed. They won't try that again.

harmonic
November 13, 2008, 11:01 PM
Can be done via Executive order,

Nope, you're wrong.

Until the 1950s, there were no rules or guidelines outlining what the president could or could not do through an executive order. However, the Supreme Court ruled in Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer, 343 US 579 (1952) that Executive Order 10340 from President Harry S. Truman placing all steel mills in the country under federal control was invalid because it attempted to make law, rather than clarify or act to further a law put forth by the Congress or the Constitution. Presidents since this decision have generally been careful to cite which specific laws they are acting under when issuing new executive orders.



EO can only be used to clarify existing law. Cannot be used to write law.

A thread you need to read:

http://thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=405956

5knives
November 14, 2008, 12:27 AM
Oh lets just wait a few months and see what happens shall we?

Arguing 'the way it used to be' and 'the way it should be', yesterdays rules and guessing at tomorrows 'Change' and revised rules is a real exercise in futility.

Six months will be plenty of time, I'm sure we'll all notice.

Regards,
:)

CRITGIT
November 14, 2008, 12:32 AM
There are enough Pro-Gun Democrats to keep really severe legislation from going through.

I agree, but it's amazing that any Dem would want to help after the indiscriminate bashing they endure here and on other gun boards.
Shotgunning our puches will lead to our undoing.:mad:

CRITGIT

Hardtarget
November 14, 2008, 01:15 AM
I don't know if this is true. but I read that a hand written letter carries much more weight when received in Washington. Also, a letter says a thousand more feel the same way! So...write to the congress-critters! Don't just "sign on" with a form letter. Who knows, may get more attention that way.

Lets start!

Mark.

Kind of Blued
November 14, 2008, 01:18 AM
I think it's going to be bad. Really bad. But anything they do, we can, and will, undo.

We're feisty. We need to stay that way.

Ignition Override
November 14, 2008, 02:08 AM
I'm still a novice with all of this, but I read on a gun website that both Clinton and Gore lost lots of 'political capital' due to the previous AWB and Gore's support for another?

Isn't Obama so politically astute (they say he learns well and quickly from others' mistakes-but maybe this is not true..) that he would want to avoid what can cost him important 'political capital' down the road, as happened to his predecessors?
Even if the economic/mortgage problems were somehow improving (it might not happen very soon from what Wall Street pros are claiming), could "O" find the backbone to stand up to certain Senators on an agenda which will not improve employment etc, in order to further his chances of re-election in four years?

mauiglide
November 14, 2008, 02:27 AM
Wow, there are so many pessimistic members here! Don't worry, be happy! Buy as much firearms and ammo as you can. Have fun and don't worry about the small stuff. We are just assuming what what the worse case scenario will be. The focus will be about the economy for a very long time.

BTW, all my firearms and ammo were lost in a boating accident last week;).

2RCO
November 14, 2008, 02:37 AM
We will see a new AWB. This is a top priority for Obama & Co. He is operating under the belief that Guns not People are the problem. We need to somehow reeducate folks with this viewpoint. But I'm preaching to the choir.

TeamPrecisionIT
November 14, 2008, 08:58 AM
I think the real issue that isn't being talked about anywhere will be his approval rating with the general public, as well as the approval rating with the house and senate. If those approval rating numbers stay high, they will be able to pass any law they deem appropriate. My personal view is they will do things slowly and watch the approval ratings to see if what they are doing is going good or bad for them. I highly doubt that an AWB will be viable to pass all at once if these guys wish for a second term.

Damian

cerberus65
November 14, 2008, 09:24 AM
My crystal ball is way too cloudy to even guess on this one.

RPCVYemen
November 14, 2008, 10:59 AM
If those approval rating numbers stay high, they will be able to pass any law they deem appropriate.

I don't think there's an approval rating high enough to maintain Democratic control of Congress if they pass an AWB ban. Obama knows that. Howard Dean know that. The pro gun Democrats whose election helped Democrats regain control of the Senate know that.

Mike

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