AK's how long till prices return to normal?


PDA






wacki
November 25, 2008, 12:34 AM
Lets pretend Obama & Congress wait 2 years (after mid-term election) to push an AWB. Are prices likely to return to normal in that time? How long do you think it will take? Given the ease of AK production, I would think it wouldn't be that hard for supply to meet demand.

I'm really starting to get the itch for an AK.:evil:

If you enjoyed reading about "AK's how long till prices return to normal?" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!
TexAg
November 25, 2008, 12:49 AM
If they go one year without a hint of a new AWB prices MIGHT come down some...just some though. That's my guess.

H2O MAN
November 25, 2008, 12:50 AM
5 to 10 years...

Gunfighter123
November 25, 2008, 12:54 AM
At LEAST 4 years !!! I think he will do the same thing as Slick Willy did -- -no "outright bans" , but he/they will shut down hard on new imports.

Loomis
November 25, 2008, 12:57 AM
Speaking as one that has bought multiple EBRs this year due to the possibility of a ban(not to mention several handguns and enormous amounts of ammo)...I am very pessimistic that I did the right thing. I think this is all going to blow over soon and prices will get back to normal.

However, just in case I'm wrong, I went on a buying splurge that lasted about 6 months and ended today. I'm going to start rebuilding my stockpile of food now.

Better safe than sorry.

geojap
November 25, 2008, 12:58 AM
Never, IMO

RyanM
November 25, 2008, 01:28 AM
In only 2 years? Not a chance. I only see prices coming down if someone else is elected next term, with no AWB in the interim..

armoredman
November 25, 2008, 01:30 AM
Normal pricing is what the market will bear. Will we see $300 WASRs again? Highly unlikely, but it could happen!

gandog56
November 25, 2008, 01:32 AM
Probably never.

MyRoad
November 25, 2008, 01:34 AM
I posted this on another forum in response to the same question regarding AR's:

The possibility exists that in six to twelve months, long before an AWB could be put in place, the economy will be bottoming out and people won't be able to pay the inflated prices anymore. Simultaneously, many of the people who bought them just to hoard them or try and resell them at a profit, will be out of work (or working short weeks) and financially hurting themselves, and will be dumping their 'extra' rifles on the market. Those combined influences would create a buyers market again, with supply ahead of demand and prices being low.

Just one possibility.

NetJunkie
November 25, 2008, 01:44 AM
The problem with AKs is that all the parts kits are gone. The builders can't make anymore as they aren't allowed to bring in full kits anymore..only kits without barrels. So unless a lot of guns bought by panic buyers hit the market I don't think you'll ever see AKs go back down.

MyRoad
November 25, 2008, 02:47 AM
The problem with AKs is that all the parts kits are gone.
Good point, I didn't think about that, guess my previous statement does not apply.

Shade00
November 25, 2008, 02:53 AM
There are still Saigas coming in.

HorseSoldier
November 25, 2008, 02:56 AM
+1 on the supply of parts kits being burned through. This might allow WASR prices, even, to remain higher than they were (less competition and such) even if there's no governmental interference.

On the plus side (still assuming no governmental interference) the various former Warsaw Pact countries that adopted 5.56mm AK variants will eventually replace them with something else. Maybe we'll see a surge of Polish Beryls, Serbian M21s, and Bulgarian 5.56 AK kits coming in five or ten years down the line.

Kurt
November 25, 2008, 03:04 AM
Wow Horse, that's a mighty BIG assumption.
Especially with the Gov't that'll be in place. :)

I not only believe that the tactical type of stuff pricing will
remain elevated, I think we'll see the better grades of the
more "normal" stuff will rise in price, and become harder to find too.
Those may prove to be the more untouchable, lifetime, hand-me-down
type of firearms and most folks will see the wisdom of getting a higher
quality piece (or ten) in that category.

HorseSoldier
November 25, 2008, 03:59 AM
Wow Horse, that's a mighty BIG assumption.
Especially with the Gov't that'll be in place.

Oh yeah -- definitely. Thought I'd mention a possible good scenario, even if it's a longshot.

Ignition Override
November 25, 2008, 05:32 AM
MyRoad:
'Roger' that. Combining your astute comments with those of people who grasp past politics (unless Obama is stupid), i.e. how many Congressional seats were lost due to the AWB, it could be a while before the new regime can take its focus away from the financial crisis. Don't get me wrong, any sneaky trick in the Senate is possible, but without some highly-publicized psycho shooting (esp. young)people with a rifle using a high-cap. magazine, maybe not.

There will be so many more layoffs before the bottom is reached, that huge numbers of people will be only worried about a paycheck or repossesed roof over their heads (and medical ins.). An AWB or ammo tax won't help them and could hurt many.
There is concern among many experienced financial professionals (not just the academics) that if a domino-effect takes place, we could end up in a depression. This is certainly not just the US. The national debt will be a huge problem for my son's generation and later, even without a depression when he fairly soon finishes college. Obama's team has much more to lose in the beginning than after 2-3 years in power. The economy might determine that, plus or minus an Israeli air strike on Iran's facilities etc (fuel prices...).

Odnar
November 25, 2008, 07:34 AM
After seeing gas at $165/gallon again yesterday, I'll remain optimistic that they'll come back down.

Loomis
November 25, 2008, 09:40 AM
$1.53/gal where I am. And that was yesterday. I fully expect to see it under a buck and a half before turkey day.

Thin Black Line
November 25, 2008, 10:22 AM
You'll find "cheap" AKs and gas <$1 when you don't have a job and you
have more important things to pay for first like food and shelter (and heat
if you live up north).

BTW, Clinton did not wait 2 years into term to get his AWB turned into law.
I also recall a chance to road-block the original AWB as a bill on the Hill over
Thanksgiving that was "missed". When the next one happens, it will happen
fast.

Other possible scenario: no rifle ban, but continue parts import ban and
include all surplus mil ammo in an EO. AKs drop in price because feeding
them costs $20+/box of ammo. Great Depression II is underway and shooting
for entertainment/practice is too expensive for Joe 6-Pack. Again, Joe has
the choice between paying real bills and buying his 6 pack or going shooting.
Joe No-pack buys 6-Pack's AK for $150 and two boxes of ammo and considers
it a good "deal". He shoots one box and throws the AK and 1 box in the
closet.

Add in:
The Great O promises a fedgov debit [debt] card which will put a Turkey in
every oven every T-day, doesn't do a new AWB, creates 1/2 the jobs he's
already indicated for a new deal national infrastructure project and is
re-elected for a second term. However, due to unemployment, crime is
rampant in many areas. There are many murders, shootings, etc. During
the Great O's second term, a new AWB is passed which will "fix" the crime
problem. Money from the infrastructure projects has trickled through-out
the economy and there has been some improvement (also because people
have re-learned how to get by with less). But, the Great O's AWB will be
hailed as the actual fix for the crime problem. There is no grandfather
clause in O's AWB. Remaining rifles climb in price due to normal supply/demand
and new shooters coming of age with jobs want them. Ammo remains very
expensive. However, the crime problem is down due to the normal generational
cycle in which the previous violent subpopulation has aged out and/or been
imprisoned. The younger generation have found their appropriate job niche
in society, or are in higher ed, or are off fighting a larger war overseas. They
don't think of crime as a means to fulfill their needs/wants/desires.

Did I miss anything?

y2k600f4
November 25, 2008, 11:10 AM
I guess I missed the window to add a "reasonably" priced AK to my collections. Really wanted to get a Saiga 7.62x39 sporting rifle and do the conversion but I can't find any and plus the rifle + conversion will run $500++. I was considering a Romanian WASR-10 but no luck there either. Maybe I have to settle with a Ruger mini-30 ?? Any suggestions. Thanks.

Coronach
November 25, 2008, 11:31 AM
Prices may never drop to $350/AK again, but it will not remain at $500/AK forever if there is no movement on the AWB front. Assuming there are no serious moves for restrictions on possession or importation of "evil" guns, lots of people that have been out buying will relax and some of them will even sell. This, combined with all of the dealers stocking up, will lead to a market flush with product and light on buyers.

Note that the above scenario includes a massive assumption that may not be met.

Mike

nachosgrande
November 25, 2008, 12:05 PM
"There are still Saigas coming in."

Just wondering where they are, I've been calling all online retailers and all brick and mortars within 2 hours drive for weeks and can't get one.

lipadj46
November 25, 2008, 12:50 PM
no one knows, it is all speculation at this point. It all depends on Obama's actions the first months and the economy.

Boxing Buffalo
November 25, 2008, 12:56 PM
I just bought a Saiga in 7.62 last week. It was $50 more than it was before all the paranoia.

There are plenty out there.

Nautilus
November 25, 2008, 01:18 PM
I think it will be awhile before prices start coming down... if at all. As with anything it's very easy for panic buying to drive prices up... but once the prices are high, it usually takes tine for them to come back down. In this case a new AWB would mean prices never come back down. At this point even if there is no new AWB there would have to be a large increase in supply to meet and exceed the demand in order to push the prices back down.

I've got a large collection of AK's and these prices have made it tempting to sell a couple at the current inflated prices... but I would only do so if I thought they would really be less expensive in the future and I'm not sure thats possible.

goldie
November 25, 2008, 02:19 PM
im so glad i bought a romanian ak 2 years ago for $399,& a custom bulgarian in oct 04.i always said to myself "do it now while you can". glad i didnt wait untill now...

Thin Black Line
November 26, 2008, 07:45 AM
Note that the above scenario includes a massive assumption that may not be met.

Yes, I probably stretched it with the gov't handing out debit cards for each
household to have a turkey. There won't be any money by then for things
like that.

atblis
November 26, 2008, 09:40 AM
I think it depends on how hard the economy tanks. If nobody is buying anything because they don't have any money, prices will come down.

MD_Willington
November 26, 2008, 10:08 AM
If you get any new parts kits they will be without a barrel.. they haven't all dried up anyway... who is ex WARSAW that is next to join NATO ?? That is probably where kits will come from.

Old Fuff
November 26, 2008, 11:06 AM
AK style rifles are either imported, or true AK assault (full automatic) rifles are brought in, stripped of all parts, the receivers and other full-auto parts are distroyed, and the remainder referbished and assembled on new semi-automatic frames. Either method produces a relatively inexpensive gun.

After January 26th, the new president can ban the further import of the rifles and rifles-to-become-parts as being "non-sporting" with nothing more then an order. It would still be possible for a company here to make a 100% made in the U.S. of A. gun, but it would be much more expensive. Stopping this would require new legislation.

RockyMtnTactical
November 26, 2008, 04:38 PM
There's no telling...

ZeBool
November 26, 2008, 09:19 PM
If the economy stays on the course that it's on, I believe the prices will inevitably fall. If people are getting layed off/losing jobs, they aren't going to be spending money on firearms. Less demand=lower prices.

bang_bang
November 26, 2008, 09:27 PM
You also have to remember the 2nd Stimulus package that Osa....errr...Obama wants to get out right away.

I look for gun sales to stay high until Christmas, drop for a little while, then pick back up whenever this gets passed.

roger_witten
November 27, 2008, 05:27 PM
This stuff will fall in price in a few months. Don't forget who signed that stupid parts law in the first place: Bush Sr.

Here's the deal. Just about everyone who wants a semi auto black rifle has one by now because they freaked out like a strung out junkie jonesing for a fix.

Suppliers and retailers who can't cash your checks fast enough are buying up supplies in bulk. Manufacturers will ramp up production. BUT With prices increasing, most customers will hold onto their money. Thus, an overstocked market.

Times are tight financially, and guns are far down the list of home, food, heat, lights, car, etc.Everyone bought those guns on credit, and as the bills come due, purchasers are going to be like, "Dude! I f-ed up big time! How the hell can I pay for all these ARs--WITH NO JOB?!" Then they'll have to dump them at a loss to make their ARM payments and credit card payments.

The demand will peter out. The dollar will gain ground relative to foreign currency, making imports cheaper.

The reality of an AWB is coming, ironically, from a small sect of Republicans in congress. Obama is no dummy. He's not going to bother with an AWB and risk being accused of neglecting the economy for trivial matters.

An AWB isn't going to happen. Not going to happen. Wait until we're in a "deeprecession". Guns will be back down to 10-08 prices by 10-09, if not sooner.

cbrgator
November 27, 2008, 05:34 PM
Simple supply and demand. Right now demand is through the roof, but it wont be long before everybody who wanted and could afford an EBR will have one. Then, buying will slow, and prices will be driven down. The gun market wont be able to sustain this volume sales at its current prices for very long and will be forced to lower prices if they expect to remain in business. Saying prices will never come down again seems ridiculous to me and very alarmist and hence contributing to this cycle.

RP88
November 27, 2008, 05:37 PM
if any AWBs look like they won't move, and if everyone finally gets their guns that they want now, the demand will drop. That means that prices will come down accordingly. But, it won't be by much if any for AK rifles. Saigas are still a high-demand item, and other AKs are built on milsurp imported parts that are drying up by the month. Even without the political adversity, AKs have been going up rapidly. Remember the Yugo M70s? They were 450 bucks this time last year. Now, you can't even find one - and if you do, it goes for about 650 to 700.

nathan
November 27, 2008, 05:44 PM
its just a good time to be a firearms dealer. I dont see it going down. The prices will stay as is or go higher. The AKs will compete with ARs and ARs will stay above a grand.


What I wanna see are the SKSs will follow up in the $400 range . I have some to sell if that hits it.

Guns and more
November 27, 2008, 05:53 PM
When some of the people who paid a lot for theirs lose their jobs, they'll be more for sale. I suspect the major brands will keep the price high until they can't compete.
This is an artificial shortage, since there is no ban (yet) and price is high based on demand.

H2O MAN
November 27, 2008, 06:41 PM
Guns and more When some of the people who paid a lot for theirs lose their jobs, they'll be more for sale.

Prices in the secondary market don't effect new retail prices,
but new retail price do effect prices in the secondary market.

Prices for all AKs should remain steady or rise as time goes on.

Distressed sales will be the exception.

cbrgator
November 27, 2008, 06:57 PM
Saying that prices will remain at what they are is implying that demand will remain at what it is... and to that I say... you can't be serious. Things won't always be flying off the shelves like they are. And when this artificial demand is curtailed, prices will follow. Then again, I guess I could be dead wrong, that's the beauty of speculation. Only time will tell.

mr..plow
November 27, 2008, 09:43 PM
Century arms is backordered 300,000 AK's as of a few weeks back ..Probaly more as of today..But now is all i can say.

W.E.G.
November 28, 2008, 12:53 AM
Detroit should start making AK's.

The economy would pick right up!

If you enjoyed reading about "AK's how long till prices return to normal?" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!