Pre Ban Prices


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thumbtack
January 15, 2003, 12:38 PM
I was wondering if the AWB does not sunset in 2004 do you think that the prices for Hi Cap mags, preban AR, etc will go up even higher?

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lapidator
January 15, 2003, 12:44 PM
I think prices will continue their upward trend, but will not jump to a new level. Supply/Demand rules prices, and I don't see the reinstitution of the AWB changing prices that way.

I can see the value on your post-band items bottom out if the sunset actually happens.

lapidator

Hkmp5sd
January 15, 2003, 01:08 PM
I think the price of magazines will drop back to a more reasonable number. As for pre-ban configured guns, I think some companies will start making the again, but the overall price will stay the same.

dave
January 15, 2003, 01:44 PM
I think one of the things we have to understand (and it sure does hurt to say this) is that the "pre-ban mag" issue is just not important to many people. Even amoung gun owners. We are in the minority here.

It seems that most people, never having had the "need" for more than ten rounds, don't really care if their mag holds 15 or 10 rounds. And some of the "hunting" gun owners don't see what all the fuss is either. We tend to be a bit "blinded" on the issue oursleves. I mean, the issue is an important one to the folks we talk to here but "out there" in the rest of the world, it simply isn't an issue.

We all know that there is more to this issue than just how many rounds our mags hold. But many don't. They feel 10 rounds is perhaps 9 more than they will ever "need". Perhaps they have been wacthing to much tv, the old one shot throws someone out the window thing. They feel if they ever need to shoot someone, one shot will take care of the bad guy, and all his family to boot.

So, while I sure hope the law sunsets, I wouldn't hold my breath. The antis seem to think it's a matter of "honor" for them. They have been working on it for some time now. And the fact that it's due to sunset during an election year would almost, to me, guarinty it's renewal.

Hope I'm wrong.

AZTOY
January 15, 2003, 02:12 PM
Dave
the fact that it's due to sunset during an election year would almost, to me, guarinty it's renewal.

I don't think it would get thought both houses of congress and pass the President in a election year!!



The Sunset

One of the concessions that was needed in order to get the ban passed in 1994 was a "sunset clause" that set an automatic expiration of the ban 10 years following the enacting of the bill into law. This will occur in September 2004. This is significant, and is sometimes misunderstood. If Congress does nothing, the ban will expire. No repeal or other congressional action is necessary for this to happen. In order for the ban to continue, legislation must be passed through both houses of Congress and signed by the President. http://www.awbansunset.com/future.html

TheOtherOne
January 15, 2003, 04:42 PM
I heard that because of Bush it was pretty much guaranteed to sunset. I hope I heard right.

And, if it does... then yeah, I think the over-priced pre-bans will drop. Why would anyone pay so much for a 10+ year old gun when you could buy a brand new with all the same features!?

But when are we going to get fully auto's legal again? I thought the NRA was this all powerful dangerous lobby that could do anything? From what I've seen happen in the past, they seem pretty weak to me.

Onslaught
January 15, 2003, 04:56 PM
Supply and demand... That's how our system works, and believe me, the gun manufacturers have been watching.

IF the AW ban were to sunset, what you would most likely see is this...

GONE are the days of $15 Glock mags. Gaston has watched eagerly as we Americans have paid $50, $75, even $100 each for used Glock magazines, and he's gotten ZILCH from it. Would he not be a wise man to raise his magazine prices enough so that a "post-sunset" full capacity magazine would run you $35 or $40?

And what about Bushmaster, observing closely as many of us ponder the decision between a brand new $900 AR and a $1500 used one?
[postban] :uhoh: [preban]

Prices will certainly come down from the premiums a used "pre-ban" whatever-or-other brings, but prices on the new, all out politically incorrect full featured post-sunset weapons will not be that of current post-ban ones either. They will most surely meet in the middle somewhere.

And yes... anything with "post-ban" features (or lack thereof) will lose value quicker than you can say "Monica Lewinsky" :what: .

Redlg155
January 15, 2003, 05:23 PM
hmmm...it's kinda hard to even guess what they will do.

If for instance nothing new was passed and we were allowed to have as many features on our AR15s as we wanted, then yes, prices would drop.

I don't know if there is a money crunch right now because of folks trying to make up for excessive Christmas spending or tax time, but there seems to be an awful lot of prebans for sale. Do a check over at AR15.com in the EE Section.

It could be folks are trying to ditch some before the prices really drop.

Page 1 has 13 Pre bans for sale. 8 Post ban.

Good SHooting
RED

alan
January 15, 2003, 06:29 PM
Dave noted that, re assault weapons ban, none were, and limits on magazine capacity, most people don't care, others don't understand, then there is that rubbish about "I don't need ..", this likely based on precioius little if ANY experience.

What must be realized in the following. The AW Ban, and limits on magazing capacity were nothing other than slices off the salami. It used to be 15 rounds, now it's 10, later it might become 5 and ultimately ZERO, which a bunch of gun owners and others flat don't realize. I cannot understand how the obvious escapes them, but it certainly does.

I don't know why, it is that obvious, but some folks might be just plain thick, or they wallow in denial. Of course, when that nasty thing that they couldn't bring themselves to face, takes a large bite of their worthless asses, they sometimes wake up. All to often, it's to damned late then.

In my view, gunowners absolutely must get on their "elected things", and stay on them, if The Sun Is To Set, at least it so appears to me. The following is a copy of what I posted in another discussion. I offer it for the thoughtful attention of readers. I've sent it to my "elected things", some other political types, and a couple of local newspapers, one of which has expressed interest in it. As I remember, George Bush, the one now in The White House had that he FAVORED these restrictions.

Sent under following heading. 10 YEARS OF THIS RUBBISH IS ENOUGH
Between now and September 2004, we are scheduled to see the departure of certain existing restrictions, a result of Sun Set provisions included in the original legislation. Effected legislation includes the so-called Assault Weapons Ban, which didn't ban so much as a single member of the genre, because it addressed only non-functional, cosmetic features. Additionally, there is the 10 round capacity limit prescribed for removable/detachable rifle and pistol magazines, as well as a cartridge capacity limit for shotguns.

The 108th Congress will have to do something. Even simply allowing The Sun To Set on the above mentioned, would send a much needed message of rejection, to the Anti Gun Nuts of this country, though it would be much better for The Congress (House and Senate) to, by an open vote, reject anything that would serve to extend, in any way at all, the miserable life of the above mentioned.

Obviously, efforts to extend or to make permanent the restrictions in the above mentioned legislation will be made, some are already under way. Be that as it may, your active opposition to extension or making permanent or in any way retaining the existing restrictions, is something that must be had.

Remember if you will, that the basis of the Assault Weapons Ban was and remains, FALSE. Also, restricting magazine capacity to 10 rounds, or any number less than that which FACTORY STANDARD MAGAZINES contained, has yet to serve any valid public or legitimate law enforcement purpose. That is because said restrictions, in no way, serve valid public purposes. They never did, and they never will. So when and if this comes before The Congress for extension, The Sun Must Set. Oppose extension, in any imaginable guise, no matter how it might be offered. You must vote NO.

RSVP

Slightly different wording addressed to Predsident Bush.

Anyone is welcome to use the foregoing themselves, it isn't copywrited, nobody needs to kiss my ring, a slight bow will do nicely. Letters, of course, need to be written, phone calls need to be made, e-mail sent also.

biere
January 15, 2003, 10:29 PM
This is one of my favorite topics because I am still learning so much about it.

Regardless of federal laws, residents of california and other states need to consider their current state laws for magazine purchases, transfers, and gun purchases and transfers.

Everyone should consider anything that needs to be imported from "bad" countries around the world. While walmart will always have made in china stuff, I never expect chinese ak drums to come back. Hope I am wrong, but oh well.

You also need to consider what arms are used around the world. Everyone who used the ak in 7.62x39 seems to have upgraded to the 5.45 series. So who knows what will be around for import even if imports are ok.

I also like to remember colt and hk as a couple companies who are not sure where their customer base is. Ruger and S&W are also well known for certain concepts or quotes and show that some companies may avoid some features to avoid lawsuits.

So even if it sunsets without replacement, some places will still be in trouble.

And most post bans can still have pre-ban stuff like a folding stock added on, if it becomes legal again. I don't expect them to compete with the more heavily optioned stuff, but at the same time most of mine will do what I want them to very well.

As for price being set by demand, I always like the posts by people saying they are waiting for it to sunset. If this thing comes close to being replaced or is replaced, I think there could be a surge in demand because most people can't justify the cost if they might pay half as much in a couple years. But what if they have another 10 year sunset clause?

I can afford to buy my mags now, I have already done so. I can not afford a couple pre-ban rifles, so I do hope this thing goes away. But I have little faith in getting my ability to buy these guns or magazines again when they are brand new and sitting on dealers shelves because some states have shown that they will prevent it. Some companies may prevent it.

All I have learned from my government is that when I think I get something, they take something else.

For those of you who will gamble that you can buy them again, you have more trust than I do.

Sven
January 15, 2003, 10:51 PM
Wouldn't matter in CA, would it?

Seems I don't live in the United States anymore.

-sven

alan
January 16, 2003, 12:28 AM
Biere:

Re your comment about people up-grading from the 7.62 x 39 to "5.45 series", I had seen an interview with General Kalichnikov, pardon my attempt at spelling Russian names, on Th
e Hostory Channel, and from what he said, he didn't think much of the Russian 5.45 x 39 mm round. Matter of fact, he flatly said that "the politicans choose it, because you Americans had one". He said that he wanted to continue "development work" on the 7.62 x 39mm round, as I recall.

As to the Chinese 75 or 100 round drum magazines you mentioned, did the things feed? I saw one of them, ONCE. Might have been a bum magazine, but it wouldn't fire 3 rounds in succession, with a failure to feed. It wasn't the rifle either.

Finally, respecting your question to the effect of "what about if they come up with another 10 year sunset period"? Of course, something like that could happen, however are you perhaps excusing what might be your own lack of activity, your choice to make of course, directed toward seeing that your "elected things" do the right thing? No offense, just curious?

Sven:

While you might live in California now, nothing says that you have to remain there. I lived in The Bay Area 30 plus years ago, and a whole bunch of places before than, and since. Of course, I bounced around like the proverbial billiard ball. Perhaps a questionable way to live, but sometimes interesting, adventuresome and exciting, most of the time not though.

biere
January 16, 2003, 10:22 PM
I am content with my involvment with my state reps, and I don't worry about what others do or what others think of what I do.

I like my 75 round chinese drum just fine.

All my examples were simply to make some people realize that even if the ban is not replaced, there are still some problems to consider.

And if you like the 7.62x39 and the armies are changing caliber you should consider that surplus will be changing eventually as well.

My goal is to make people think a bit and wonder about what all could happen.

And if someone offered me ten times what my mags are worth because the ban got renewed, I would keep what I have since I prefer to own it and use it.

Redlg155
January 16, 2003, 10:43 PM
And if you like the 7.62x39 and the armies are changing caliber you should consider that surplus will be changing eventually as well.

I wouldn't worry about the 7.62x39 drying up anytime soon as the majority of ammo we shoot is new manufactured by Wolf and other Barnaul. They also seem to be commanding a good share of the 5.56 market as well as providing a lot of ammo for 5.45.

Still..it doesn't hurt to try to buy a box of ammo every couple of weeks or a battle pack once a month.

Good Shooting
Red

Wildalaska
January 16, 2003, 11:55 PM
I have my assault weapons already :)

alan
January 17, 2003, 12:15 AM
Biere wrote:

My goal is to make people think a bit and wonder about what all could happen.

Hope your efforts meet with success, especially that part about "making people think".


Redleg155:

Even if the "surplus" 7.62 x 39 stuff should dry up, and Wolf fall on hard times, I believe that boxer primed, brass cases are available, and I've seen .311 dia bullets offered for sale. I also understand that .308 dia projectiles, in appropriate weight range will serve, though I could be wrong on that. If concerned, people might buy some extra ammunition, as you suggest, however reloading makes sense too.

Beer for my Horses
January 17, 2003, 12:17 AM
GONE are the days of $15 Glock mags. Gaston has watched eagerly as we Americans have paid $50, $75, even $100 each for used Glock magazines, and he's gotten ZILCH from it.
Don't shed too many tears for Gaston. New Hi-Cap Glock mags are still being imported into the U.S. through various means and sold by dealers as "pre-ban." There's really no way to prove they're not "pre-ban" so the smugglers and dealers have no problem importing them and selling them at a profit. Because I happen to want a few 17 round mags for my Glock 17, I was willing to dish out $90 a piece. That was two years ago. Now they're going for $135 a piece. If the AW ban RE mag capacity sunsets then so well the gross profits being made by the smugglers and back we will return to the days of Hi-Caps at reasonable prices.

As for the people who say "you'll never need 17 rounds in a defensive gunfight" . . . I reply "well, statistically speaking I'll never need to carry my handgun either, but I do it anyway. . . kinda like wearing my seatbelt."

alan
January 17, 2003, 12:19 PM
Beer for my horses:

I have no idea as to what might happen to magazine prioces in the event of "sun set". I believe however, that every gun owner, as a matter of principle, should get on their "elected things", and stay on them, in order to make certain that "the sun does actually set".

By the way, rather than play semantic games where the antis are maling up the rules of the game, why not refer to the magazines as what they were, that being FACTORY STANDARD. It is the Bureaucrats Special that is the odd ball.

In conclusion, you also noted the following:As for the people who say "you'll never need 17 rounds in a defensive gunfight" . . . I reply "well, statistically speaking I'll never need to carry my handgun either, but I do it anyway. . . kinda like wearing my seatbelt."

In theory, both parties are correct, however respecting matters of "need", in-so-far as whatever it is, or might be that I "need", it is I, and not "others", who make that determination, since it is MY life, and not THEIRS that is, or might be at risk.

lapidator
January 17, 2003, 12:59 PM
I have my assault weapons already

did you mean:
Quack, doesn't affect my duck guns -- so i don't care, quack.

Or did you mean:
I have mine, i don't care about you.

:scrutiny:


lapidator

Dan Shapiro
January 17, 2003, 01:45 PM
Wouldn't matter in CA, would it?

Not unless you took a trip to AZ or NV :D

biere
January 17, 2003, 05:57 PM
I was not talking about simply 7.62x39 ammo. If armies are changing over then the companies that make the magazines, drums, and other caliber specific things will also likely be changing.
Same could go for spare parts but from what I understand it is not so easy to assemble an ak. However, it is popular to buy a fal parts kit either as spares or to later assemble.

Right now I would say fal and 7.62x39 ak mags are about as cheap as they can get in many instances if you look around. The fal I believe is still in useage, but as fewer places use the 7.62x39 ak, there will be less "new" unused surplus to get.

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