Will an assault weapon ban pass in 2009?


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atek3
December 4, 2008, 01:47 AM
New Prediction Market Contract (http://digg.com/politics/New_Assault_Weapon_Ban_in_2009)

There's now a prediction market called intrade.net that has two contracts being traded. One is bill introduced, and one is law passes.

It would be good if we could get some "wisdom of crowds" going.

thanks,
atek3

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Sinixstar
December 4, 2008, 01:59 AM
intrade's been around for awhile... I view it with a bit of a grain of salt though.There were still people trading Hillary Clinton as President going into november of this year.

atek3
December 4, 2008, 02:11 AM
Grain of salt yes, but the whole point of a futures market is to assign real probabilities to events. I mean Hilary.President was probably trading at half a cent on the dollar. Was there a greater than half a percent chance Obama dies, gets incapacitated, has a massive scandal? Maybe, Maybe not. Some people felt it was worth it.

Prediction markets have constantly outperformed polls in terms of elections.

expvideo
December 4, 2008, 03:20 AM
My magic eight-ball says "No".

PTK
December 4, 2008, 06:17 AM
Millions and millions and millions of "assault weapons" are in civilian hands.

That. Is. Common. Use.


Thanks, SCOTUS! :)

everallm
December 4, 2008, 07:14 AM
IMHO

Bill introduced in 12 months...............99% probability
Bill dies in committee........................95% probability

Lone_Gunman
December 4, 2008, 08:57 AM
Millions and millions and millions of "assault weapons" are in civilian hands.

That. Is. Common. Use.


Maybe. But all that means is the can't ban assault weapons. They could still limit magazine capacity to 5 rounds, and band pistol grips, flash hiders, and bayonet lugs. The effect would be the same.

Who wants a 5 shot AR with a thumbhole stock?

They could also require federal registration of all guns, and require gun owners to get fingered printed, pay registration fees, attend mandatory safety courses, make storage requirements, etc.

If you think the Heller decision is protecting you from anything other than an outrigh ban, you arent paying attention.

ManBearPig
December 4, 2008, 09:09 AM
Maybe. But all that means is the can't ban assault weapons. They could still limit magazine capacity to 5 rounds, and band pistol grips, flash hiders, and bayonet lugs. The effect would be the same.

Who wants a 5 shot AR with a thumbhole stock?

Unfortunately, my only answer to that is......well at least I have mine already; before they make them painful to look at.

Gunnerpalace
December 4, 2008, 12:38 PM
Common Use,

3000 30rd mags sold in 2hrs at one place.

Eightball
December 4, 2008, 12:50 PM
Yes. Yes it will.

Next question.

BUGUDY
December 4, 2008, 12:53 PM
I think the economy will keep them busy enough for the next couple of years.

22-rimfire
December 4, 2008, 12:56 PM
3000 30rd mags sold in 2hrs at one place.

And that's a firearm. :)

I expect to see initially a ban similar to the AWB of 1994. Many politicians were for that particular bit of legislation.

After that, the "gunshow loophole" gets addressed. Another salable piece of legislation to the common urban citizen who does not understand firearms or how business is conducted.

I'll fight for nothing to change, but I think it's unlikey to restrain the Democrat Congress with Obama as president.

The_Shootist
December 4, 2008, 01:08 PM
Doesn't look like the Dems will have a filibuster proof Senate to pass that side. I'm just wondering with the economy tanking how eager Congress is to tackle something that generates alot of heat with minimal returns - either vote wise or crime wise.

Art Eatman
December 4, 2008, 01:11 PM
Enuf OT

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