What exactly is a SHTF scenario?


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Sinixstar
December 22, 2008, 11:15 PM
So - pretty regularly, the "shtf scenario" is discussed. Mostly in the form of "what rifle for...", "what handgun for...", "what battery of guns for..."

My question is - what constitutes a legit "SHTF" situation?

Is it, a blizzard that shuts down all roads in and out of your town for a week, causing widespread panic and a run on toilet paper at the local Stop n Shop?

Complete and utter breakdown of society - lord of the flies style savagery, mad max style survivalist skills required?

What is it exactly to you, and what is the likelihood of this actually being a reality?

To the mods: I know this may seem a bit of a stretch - but hear me out. If people are going to talk about the "shtf" times - we should have an idea of what exactly we're talking about here...

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longdayjake
December 22, 2008, 11:31 PM
I bought my shtf guns before the ____ hit the fan after the election. If you ask me the run on guns was a shtf scenario that most of us on this forum were already prepared for. And some of us were so prepared that we made quite a profit. Any one that says there is no reason to prepare for a shtf moment needs only to look at the world after nov 4th.

fireman 9731
December 22, 2008, 11:38 PM
A SHTF scenario to me is anytime that a gun would come in handy...

Zundfolge
December 22, 2008, 11:39 PM
SHTF in the context of "what gun for SHTF" means one of two scenarios.

1) Complete and utter breakdown of society - lord of the flies style savagery, mad max style survivalist skills required.

or

2) Government out of control declares something more strict and permanent than martial law and it becomes time to "feed the tree of liberty".


Now you can see from both those examples that there really isn't any way to discuss them without coming off like a loon which is why such discussion is generally forbidden here.

mbt2001
December 22, 2008, 11:44 PM
SHTF is anytime there is a BREAKDOWN in the normal function of society and / or the availability of common goods and servies.

For instance any hurricane is a SHTF experience. Some (Katrina) are more so than others. Forest fires that require you to evacuate, chemical spills or fires that require you to "shelter in place". Ice storms that knock out power to 1 or millions.

mljdeckard
December 22, 2008, 11:45 PM
I have modified my perception of such events. I used to anticipate total breakdown, but especially since Katrina, I have planned around short-term events, in which food, water, electricity, access to and from the city, general breakdown of services etc, in any of a number of combinations might occur.

It didn't take days for New Orleans to go crazy, it took hours. I am much more concerned about short-term crises than long-term.

TexasRifleman
December 22, 2008, 11:46 PM
A SHTF scenario to me is anytime that a gun would come in handy...

I gotta go with that one.

It doesn't take a total breakdown in society for me to very much need a gun.

One nutjob kicking in my front door and the S has most certainly hit the fan for me.

The Lone Haranguer
December 22, 2008, 11:49 PM
It could be described, in broad strokes, as a total breakdown of law, order and social services for a period of time ranging from a day or two to several weeks. There can be many causes for this, including (but not limited to) natural disasters like hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, etc.; massive rioting (e.g., the 1992 Los Angeles riots); terrorist attacks with WMDs, and so on. It is not quite as bad as a TEOTWAWKI scenario. ;)

FlyinBryan
December 23, 2008, 12:00 AM
One nutjob kicking in my front door and the S has most certainly hit the fan for me.


pretty much what i was thinkin, but i prolly couldnt have said it as well.

Ohio Gun Guy
December 23, 2008, 12:05 AM
I heard a report on NPR the other day (I know, the other station was on commercial). They were talking to an out of work executive. He had previously made 100k+. He was describing how his "Survival" plan. He stated that he would steal food if he had to, but he wouldn’t go hungry. I had to turn it before I smashed my radio.

Any situation, where a dufus, with the prior means to provide for himself, who blatantly neglects to do so, and feels obligated to mine, is a SHTF scenario. Fortunately, this moron likely didn’t provide himself with a firearm or ammunition.

jakemccoy
December 23, 2008, 12:11 AM
Let's use real life examples:

Katrina
Rodney King Riots
Detroit Riots of 1967

I'm sure if you were in the middle of any of those events, you'd say the SHTF. Firearms were highly useful in all those.

Sinixstar
December 23, 2008, 12:17 AM
I heard a report on NPR the other day (I know, the other station was on commercial). They were talking to an out of work executive. He had previously made 100k+. He was describing how his "Survival" plan. He stated that he would steal food if he had to, but he wouldn’t go hungry. I had to turn it before I smashed my radio.


I've found a number of those stories (I listen to NPR a lot - it makes good background noise) have a bit of a dry sort of "can you believe this clown" air about them.

Jefferson Herb
December 23, 2008, 12:26 AM
jakemccoy has it right ,I guess you could add other things but you get labeled right wing extreemist.But if you want to live in a f. marcos [ phillipines ] style govt,give me your ammo ;I'll expend it for you.

22-rimfire
December 23, 2008, 12:28 AM
Ohio, I suppose if you did not adequately plan for a bad time, you'd just crawl in a hole and die? Most will fight to survive. That's why you need to be able to protect yourself and have a plan in place.

I feel that preparing for the absolute disaster is most difficult and there are so many variables. Ultimately you are going to trust to luck and your belief in the almightly that you'll come through it okay. You prepare too, but most can't prepare for a year or two living off the land or have the knowledge or skill to do so.

So, I think in terms of regional disaster with earthquakes being more than likely having the biggest impact regionally. Hurrricanes can have terrible local impact, but often if you drive or are able to drive 100 miles, things are just fine. So, it is just a matter of having some money for a motel or staying away for a period of time (like 30 days for a big one like Katrina). Katrina in New Orleans was a special case as the place flooded and stayed flooded. That is not normally the case.

Rshooter
December 23, 2008, 12:28 AM
For most of us in the USA, society is polite and orderly with police protection, electricity, running water, and the easily availability of food and comfort items. Once access to these things breaks down you might say you have a SHTF situation. This situation may exist for a few hours or a few weeks. Depending on the service or combination thereof missing and the duration it could be an annoyance or life threatening.

In other places in the world they may live in a constant SHTF situation or nearly so.

jakemccoy
December 23, 2008, 12:33 AM
What scares me is that I'm the only one in my family who has mentally prepared for a SHTF situation. Everybody will come to my house or want me to come there. I'll have a bunch of immature or spoiled nieces and nephews who will add danger to any serious situation. I constantly talk to family members about basic survival techniques, nothing major, but to no avail.

Ohio Gun Guy
December 23, 2008, 12:38 AM
22-rimfire,
Being out of work for a short period of time is not a SHTF senario. It astounds me, that in such short time, so many people need the level of help that they need. ESPECIALLY THOSE WHO ARE IN A POSITION TO HELP THEMSELVES (MAKING NORTH OF 100,000) Another example would be people who live in Ohio that make no provision for snow / ice storms, even though they happen every year (Or more). 3 - 4 days without power, water, electricity, should not put you on the edge of survival! We all dont / cant afford generators, etc. but there are other things you can do. Just have a reasonable plan, something, anything.

This does not mean, I dont help people, quite the opposite. It just bothers me that so many people's plan is non existant or they actually PLAN to just mooch off of others (They bring nothing to the situation, and KNOW IT) :fire:

Just Jim
December 23, 2008, 12:39 AM
SHTF is the time when government has failed and you are on your own. The list of times that they fail grows every day to the point where their efforts won't mean much.

You are seeing a SHTF in the economy right now. You are not gonna like what happens next.

jj

Sinixstar
December 23, 2008, 12:41 AM
Another example would be people who live in Ohio that make no provision for snow / ice storms, even though they happen every year (Or more).

I could never understand that either. First big snowstorm - and there's a run on shovels. What - did you throw yours away in the spring thinking "pfft - winter's over, i'll never need this thing again!"


What scares me is that I'm the only one in my family who has mentally prepared for a SHTF situation. Everybody will come to my house or want me to come there. I'll have a bunch of immature or spoiled nieces and nephews who will add danger to any serious situation. I constantly try to talk to family member about basic stuff, nothing major, to no avail.


I've joked around with some of my family members - at least, they think I was joking when I said "yea man, sorry, but you're on your own..."

alaskanativeson
December 23, 2008, 12:51 AM
SHTF = When my wife figures out how much money I've spent on guns. I'll be the one who becomes a zombie if she totals it up.

22-rimfire
December 23, 2008, 12:51 AM
Ohio, I agree with you as being unemployed for 6 months is not normally a SHTF situation. It may well be a personal depression, but in general the majority of your neighbors are not in the same situation.

It is possible to just be caught at the worst time with a layoff. Believe it or not, many who make $100K save almost zero for a rainy day. They have their BMW's, leased cars, unpaid for boats, second mortagages on their house, etc.

There are charities who will help you keep the lights on, but beyond a month or two, you're pretty much on your own. You are expected to make some effort to save yourself.

I just hope and pray that we are not facing a real national depression as it could easily become a worldwide depression. We live in a very fagile world now and are heavily dependant on others for our survival for the most part. If things got really bad, I could see things erupting in war.

scrat
December 23, 2008, 12:58 AM
SHTF the 1992 riots in los angeles and living 10 minutes from los angeles. Every gun in the house was loaded and bullets were all ready to go. Smoke and ashes were raining in the sky. 3pm looked like 7pm, cities were under mandatory shut downs. The local strip mall was hit 4 blocks away from home. yep that is a SHTF scenario

Lone_Gunman
December 23, 2008, 12:59 AM
Zombies. Lots and lots of zombies.

DoubleTapDrew
December 23, 2008, 01:04 AM
SHTF is when Russian paratroopers jump into a sleepy Colorado town, forcing a small group of high school students to hide out in the woods eventually fighting back and teaming up with a downed air force colonel.
Sorry, I re-watched Red Dawn recently.
I think it's basically any time you are forced to rely on yourself with little or no chance of emergency services available, along with other people in the same situation who want your stuff because they weren't prepared (or are just plain greedy).

Sinixstar
December 23, 2008, 01:11 AM
So - prevailing thought seems to be this:

Situation where there is no reasonable expectation of outside assistance, while simultaneously there is an increased risk of threat of physical violence and/or intimidation against your person and/or property. Correct?

(i know - that sounds very proper - just trying to completely nail it down)

Ohio Gun Guy
December 23, 2008, 01:16 AM
To be picky.....

I think it also needs to include some sort of group action / reaction, bigger event than just you.....

The example of the riots is good.

Doc_Jude
December 23, 2008, 01:19 AM
What is a SHTF scenario? It can't really be tacked down very easily, but the best broad definition would be any situation where you are required to get along or survive by your own devices for a abnormal or prolonged period of time. As mentioned above, an Ice Storm or Blizzard where you're snowed in. Yeah, big deal, right? A couple days of food, no big deal.... but what if the utilities go out? Do you have heat? Water? You can't live long without either. You may be able to collect snow for water, during the day. What if days w/o utilities turns into weeks? Some outlying areas may experience this. Just something to think about.
Katrina in LA really exemplifies what can happen domestically (CONUS). Of course, we saw how the local LEAs chose to treat locals that were armed...
So, anything from riots to economic collapse to prolonged unemployment to Natural disasters, floods, blizzards, hurricanes, up to Lucifer's Hammer Meteor Strikes and Surprise Ice Ages.

Oh, & global Zombie plagues, too. Must not forget the friggin' Zombies.

SHTF is when Russian paratroopers jump into a sleepy Colorado town, forcing a small group of high school students to hide out in the woods eventually fighting back and teaming up with a downed air force colonel.
Sorry, I re-watched Red Dawn recently.

Yeah, me too. I watch it at least once a month. Love that ol' movie, total classic.

The_Shootist
December 23, 2008, 01:21 AM
Think Katrina - that defines SHTF as well as anything.

Lone_Gunman
December 23, 2008, 01:50 AM
OK, so which scenario is considered the worse SHTF situation:

Russian paratroopers landing in your backyard, with only Patrick Swayze and Lea Thompson on your side...

or

Being trapped at the Mall surrounded by Zombies?

mauiglide
December 23, 2008, 02:13 AM
A few years ago Hawaii experienced a major earthquake that caused some power outages and limited travelling. If more of the infrastructure was damaged we would have been in a world of hurt. That's when I really started working on stocking up on basic survival necessities like food, water, equipment, and *firearms*. I would hate to stay at a shelter if my own home was still intact. I rather bug in than retreat to a place that may be even worst off.

BlacklabelOP
December 23, 2008, 02:15 AM
this is close..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKTw-UHalZc&eurl=http://video.google.com/videosearch?hl=en&q=shop%20owner%20riot&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&tab=wv

Just Jim
December 23, 2008, 02:31 AM
SHTF when the socialist start nationalizing everything from your homes and jobs to your pension, then tell you to turn in your guns. Just after they ruin the dollar of course.

jj

chris in va
December 23, 2008, 02:38 AM
To the OP, forget about Katrina already? Do some research, LEO's were nowhere to be found when the looting started.

nachosgrande
December 23, 2008, 02:44 AM
If the situation is a situation where you would need to use a gun, then I would say a total disappearance of society. Nobody other than you to provide food.

Treo
December 23, 2008, 02:55 AM
I think a good working definition would be anytime I'm faced with an emergency that I am required to handle W/out any outside resources. In Colorado that might be a blizzard or a home invasion or a woman having a heart attack in the pew in front of me at church (although we were less than 6 blocks from a fire station) It probably wouldn't include a hurricane. :D

shevrock
December 23, 2008, 04:03 AM
After the Russians invading [although i think it'll be the Chinese invading first] their could be anything from as stated simple [okay not simple] home invasion, to oh god the sky is falling.

I personally define it as when something right goes completely awry and all of a sudden, you have very little time to keep from getting nailed to the proverbial wall.

kuntreeboy80
December 23, 2008, 04:39 AM
SHTF is all of that, the only ones left are a bunch of people from this board because everyone else didn't prepare for the worst! Oh and Zombies, Russians, and whatever else movies have taught us!

Kind of Blued
December 23, 2008, 04:49 AM
Situation where there is no reasonable expectation of outside assistance, while simultaneously there is an increased risk of threat of physical violence and/or intimidation against your person and/or property. Correct?

Is there EVER a reasonable expectation for outside assistance?

As stated earlier, anybody trying to kick down my front door creates a SHTF situation. If I need the cops, chances are I needed the cops two-three minutes ago. I don't see response times being that good for a long, long time. ;)

I think of it as "any situation which may call for self-defense" with some sort of established "base" as necessary, although this may be simply because "SHTF" means "rifle" to me and I haven't figured out how to carry a proper rifle concealed. :)

Afy
December 23, 2008, 08:16 AM
Jericho

AirForceShooter
December 23, 2008, 08:25 AM
Here in my neck of the woods it's a cat 4 or 5 hurricane.
Loss of all utilities, complete breakdown of law enforcement, shortage of food, little if no water.

In other words "you're on your own bunky".

You know those signs you see on the TV after a hurricane that says "you loot we shoot"?
Those are not a joke.

AFS

MIL-DOT
December 23, 2008, 08:36 AM
I'm surprised that so many here don't really have a grasp of these two common terms.
SHTF is an intense but more or less,limited disruption in the status quo. i.e. Katrina, earthquake,etc.
TEOTWAWKI is exactly that ,"the end of the world as we know it", i.e. Red Dawn, Jericho, Omega Man,Mad Max, January 20, etc.:D

JWarren
December 23, 2008, 08:43 AM
A SHTF scenario to me is anytime that a gun would come in handy...


I have to disagree with this defination. There are plenty of times when you are in serious trouble and a firearm isn't going to be the primary tool that will get you through it.


As I see it the GENERAL term SHTF refers to anytime that your life is threatened and/or conditions exist where the basic needs of human existence are unobtainable through normal channels.

This, however, does not include minor inconvienences such as getting a flat on the interstate. It may, however, include losing your job-- if you include financial disasters in the mix.


I sort of have classed SHTF into categories of severity. My categorization is not based upon the level of "danger," but rather the level of resources and preparedness would be required to deal with said SHTF:

SHTF Cat. 1: Something goes bump in the night, and it isn't the dog.
SHTF Cat. 2: A "stranded" situation.
SHTF Cat. 3: A Protracted and/or regional disruption of society (i.e. Katrina)
SHTF Cat. 4: A national/global societal meltdown. (TEOTWAWKI)


Misc. SHTF: A Financial SHTF. I break this out of the rest because a) it is often not life-threatening, but b) it CAN be a major disruption to your ability to meet basic needs, and c) it DOES require substantial planning.


-- John

Regig
December 23, 2008, 09:15 AM
Stalingrad. S H T F

Hutch
December 23, 2008, 09:40 AM
I used to think I had it all figured out. There were 3 classifiers to deal with

Local or Widespread? If local (ice storm, tornado, hurricane, quake), then one might reasonably expect help from other parts of the country. We do that pretty well as a nation, the response to Katrina nothwithstanding. If it's very widespread (think: asteroid strike, war, etc.) then attitudes will change.

Short term or long term? If "everyone knows" the problem is going to be limited in duration, then there's a much more cooperative attitude among those at ground zero. During an unprecendented winter storm in Alabama, people were very quick to share resources like firewood, food, and other help. The anticipation was that he local utilities would be back on in a week or so, and that the grocery stores would be there when the roads were passable.

Where is the problem occuring? Is it a major metro area, where there is little or no natural societal cohesion, or is it in the proverbial "Amish countly", where voluntary cooperative effort is the norm?

All this analysis went right down the pooper when I saw the response of NYC to the 09/11 attacks. Crime fell to near zero. Compare that to Katrina, where it all went rodeo in the areas most affected. In both scenes, there were highly localized, short term disruptions in major metro areas. In NYC, people reacted well, on the whole. In the Big Easy, it was a time of Great Suckage.

Needless to say, I no longer thing I understand anything about this.

LKB3rd
December 23, 2008, 12:03 PM
I think we are at the beginning stages of an economic SHTF. I would prepare for a spike in crime, possible job loss or pay cuts, while the price of everything goes up and up. Couple this with the government robbing more and more money(many places are increasing taxes, and taxing more things right now "due to budget problems"), and clamping down on more and more trivial things "for our own good and safety" of course.

Boba Fett
December 23, 2008, 12:35 PM
1) Complete and utter breakdown of society - lord of the flies style savagery, mad max style survivalist skills required.

or

2) Government out of control declares something more strict and permanent than martial law and it becomes time to "feed the tree of liberty".

+1 :cool:

jakemccoy
December 23, 2008, 02:28 PM
this is close..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKTw-...-8&sa=N&tab=wv

Damn! The SHTF televised!

expvideo
December 23, 2008, 02:52 PM
To me SHTF could range from Hurricane Katrina to Water World, with a happy medium of The Postman.

I know that's over-simplifying, but I think that puts my point into terms that most people can easily understand.

Tirod
December 23, 2008, 03:09 PM
SHTF is the time when government has failed and you are on your own. The list of times that they fail grows every day to the point where their efforts won't mean much.

What creates a SHTF scenario is expecting someone else to take care of you. Katrina is a great example - you could choose to hole up in the stadium and wait for - what? Or, be armed and prepared with food and water to last out the surge. Those who simply drove north did a least exercise initiative.

Denial and a complete lack of preparation creates SHTF scenarios - and all the folks who've lived through serious ice storms, hurricanes, and earthquakes with preparedness didn't suffer much at all. And the government does very little in those situations - the power company is the biggest enabler. They bring in workcrews within 24 hours and fix it.

In a SHTF scenario, you either take care of it yourself, or the government will at least dispose of your remains. If you live outside the city limits, you know this. It's the urban residents who don't get it.

JackOfAllTradesMasterAtNone
December 23, 2008, 03:36 PM
At least for me.

Natural disasters stateside are in the minds of many. I don't live in hurricane or tornado belt, but volcano and earth quake are big possibilities. Still, in most natural disasters, most people you encounter are in the same boat so to speak. We need sustinance and shelter. I hope to have both. I may take in my neighbor in need, but I don't plan on just giving away what I've stocked up for a situation. Let the indigents loot the local appliance store for that big screen TV. I couldn't give a rip. (It's not my store) But land on my property to take my food and drink, You'll have a fight on your hands. SHTF is just that, Lawlessness, carelessness, disregard for human life, (mine) is when the gloves come off.

My 14 and 16 year old boys and I were watching the Patriot the other day. The part when the son is taken prisoner and dad and the boys ambush the Brits on the road to rescue him... I think right then, that was a SHTF situation.

Do I worry about a Billion Chinamen coming down drom B.C.? Naw... We joke about it. But naw. (Those of you in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, might think otherwise of the thugs south of the border) Am I concerned that there could be a drug/turf war with some local gangs? I don't ignore the possibilities. Mix in any sort of major disaster and the gang threat becomes real. No, in my smallish community I don't envision riots of Detroit and L.A. memories.

But when there are people determined to take advantage of a situation, and do wrong to others, S has HTF.

We should be a bit prepared to handle that.

-Steve

Zoogster
December 23, 2008, 03:39 PM
Government out of control declares something more strict and permanent than martial law and it becomes time to "feed the tree of liberty".

How exactly do you get more strict than martial law?

One thing I have also learned from history is that the majority of tyrannical regimes only enacted "temporary" measures. A very small minority ever called anything they did or any new powers "permanent".

To keep with a more well known example for the sake of time, Hitler only was given 4 years of "temporary" powers due to an "emergency" crisis.
The "emergency crisis" was an "act of terrorism" in the burning of the Reichstag, thier parliament building, similar to our Congress. Supposedly set by communists to start a communist revolution.

So for comparison (as we do not have a parliamentary system): essentialy the Capitol building was attacked in an act of terrorism, and the president or powerful individual in government asked for Patriot Act like powers to deal with the crisis.Those powers were granted, and with those powers they slowly insured they gained increasing levels of power while limiting opposition.
The population was drummed up into patriotic support to resist "terrorists".
The Third Reich was born.
Anyone who questioned what was happening was considered unpatriotic, or a "terrorist sympathizer".
Similar to the Dixie Chicks (not a fan) in early 2003 when they questioned Bush going to war with Iraq.
Washington Times 2003:
"They're still all riled up: A well-heeled audience booed the Dixie Chicks plenty during the country music's biggest night of the year Wednesday proof that patriotism continues to run deep through America."
And lines like: "It's yet another scene from an ongoing national morality play with a looming moral: Even celebrities can't mess with respect for country and national unity."

The entire group posed nude on the April 28 cover of Entertainment Weekly magazine, their limbs printed with mottos such as "Saddam's angels," "traitors" and "proud Americans."



So you see, the road to tyranny is not something the average person would recognize even if it was happening. They can be drummed up into support for whatever is going on, and anyone that speaks out can be blackslisted. Considered unpatriotic traitors.
Tyranny usualy comes with applause and many "temporary" measures to deal with a current crisis as history shows.
Fortunately the fervor died down, most of the Patriot Act was repealed, and Bush or someone else didn't take things too much further to "protect us in the War on Terror".
In many other situations in history things were not so fortunate.


The masses can be made to follow or allow anything. They just need to be scared, hungry, or desperate.

Top Nazi, Hermann Goering:
"Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ...voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is to tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country."

LKB3rd
December 23, 2008, 04:08 PM
/applause
Well put, zoogster.
The burning of the Reichstag turned out to be a fraud carried out by people within the Nazi movement to claim that they were under attack by communists, and people needed to give up their freedoms for security.

Sinixstar
December 23, 2008, 04:45 PM
So it's still a bit of an nebulous concept. Seems to be one of those things were "i'll know it when I see it".
I mean, I have my abstract idea of what SHTF looks like - but it seems like people's definitions vary from "bump in the night" to all out overthrow of government to natural disasters, and everything in between.


Part of the reason why i'm kinda trying to get to the bottom of this, is again - you see all these "best SHTF rifle" threads and such. It seems to be kind of hard to nail down the best tool for the job, when even describing what the job is/will be seems to be a little bit of an exercise in it's own right..

athensguy
December 23, 2008, 05:10 PM
A SHTF scenario that appears to be becoming more common in the Atlanta area is the SWAT team bursting through your door and shooting at you.

Ron-Bon
December 23, 2008, 05:10 PM
What is TEOTWAWKI?

Sinixstar
December 23, 2008, 05:12 PM
What is TEOTWAWKI?

it's an REM song...


it's the end of the world as we know it!
it's the end of the world as we know it!
and I feeel fiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnneeeeee

JImbothefiveth
December 23, 2008, 05:18 PM
What is it exactly to you, and what is the likelihood of this actually being a reality?
Anything that is grounds for automatic thread lock in the strategies and tactics forum. It seems to happen quite frequently. :cool:

Sometimes it refers to things like hurricanes, and sometimes it refers to zombie invasions, or anything in between. It usually depends on who started the thread, but I guess that's not MY personal definition.

Thin Black Line
December 23, 2008, 05:44 PM
Personal perspective has 100% to do with what's considered SHTF. It sounds
like for some people here running out of chocolate would be SHTF. For some
of us seeing a pile of dead mangled bodies outside the ER would at least be
kind of close. At that point we might ask "How close is the fat man to farting
near the fan?"

jakemccoy
December 23, 2008, 05:48 PM
I'd start a new thread about what I'm about to ask, but it's not gun related. Zoogster explained the Reichstag fire in a way that brought clarity to a modern comparison.

What are some situations similar to Reichstag that preceded Reichstag? As we know, history repeats itself. So, I'm wondering if anybody can give me some examples of precedents to Reichstag.

Valkman
December 23, 2008, 06:01 PM
SHTF is actually when your wife finds out you bought a gun and didn't tell her. :D

KBintheSLC
December 23, 2008, 06:11 PM
Here in SLC, the most likely SHTF would be a massive earthquake. The Wasatch fault has been poised to break for quite some time now, and when it does, the western bedrock/silt plate will be forced under the eastern granite plate and will send rolling seismic shock waves of biblical proportions throughout the soft ancient lake bed of the Salt Lake Valley floor.

Seismologists have said that we have been due for a big one (7.0 or bigger) for many decades now. I assume that it is only a matter of time.

That is why I have a SHTF gun/ammo stash. It could take weeks/months to get the city back in order after such an event. However, I also have many other SHTF stashes... like food/water/medical/shelter procurement. Guns are only one little piece of surviving a SHTF scenario.

SHTF is actually when your wife finds out you bought a gun and didn't tell her.
No level of preparation can save you from that.

bad_aim_billy
December 23, 2008, 06:50 PM
OK, so which scenario is considered the worse SHTF situation:

Russian paratroopers landing in your backyard, with only Patrick Swayze and Lea Thompson on your side...

or

Being trapped at the Mall surrounded by Zombies?

Anything with Patrick Swayze would be the worst-- his hair would be visible to passing aircraft, thus attracting extra attention and/or gunfire...

RoboDuck
December 24, 2008, 12:22 AM
Normally connotates the total break down of civilization and social order.

heavyshooter
December 24, 2008, 04:18 AM
I have recently asked this very question and I initiated a thread asking what rifle was good for such a situation - http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?p=5158217#post5158217

As I mentioned in the thread, a friend made me realize that the "Rule of Law" has broken down on more than one occasion in recent history. California has, to some degree, crippled its residents with very unique laws, but the Govt. was unable to come to their aid during the LA Riots. That was a SHTF moment for sure.

New Orleans imposed a temporary law prohibiting gun possession during the Katrina aftermath. They collected guns from citizens that were trying to protect their homes and themselves. Meanwhile, the city is in shambles as many (not all) of the officers abandoned their posts and left the residents to fend for themselves in the midst of a temporary gun ban. That was a SHTF moment. - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-taU9d26wT4

I live in the Denver Metro area and in December 2006 we had one of the worst blizzards in recorded history. We were confined to our homes for about four days and the city shut down (that speaks to how much snow it was because Denver does not stress over snow). During that week, there was a group of teens in our neighborhood who took advantage of the situation by robbing some of the condos in my community while the residents were home!!! Imagine that; drudging through 4 feet of snow to violate someone’s home. It was nowhere near as extreme as L.A. or N.O. but it was a SHTF moment.

Frankly, anarchy is not likely in the United States, but the occasional societal breakdown has reared its head. You won’t catch me moving to the mountains to drink well water and “live free off the land” while I store up a basement full of potted meat.:D But I do believe in SHTF moments.

Yozho
December 24, 2008, 04:53 AM
Tell the deadbeats in your family to read the parable of the Ant and the Grasshopper.

Sadly a true SHTF scenario means leaving the ones that would burden your family left behind to fend for themselves.

I just started planning for a long-term SHTF scenario where there would be a complete breakdown of law and order. For a short-term SHTF I would almost daresay one could wing it. Food - check. Ammo-check. Water, fuel, toilet paper -check, check, check. Other stuff too, but you get my drift. A situation where basic services may be lacking but law and order is still around and folks aren't doing stupid things. The situation should get back to normal within days or weeks at the most.

But planning for a situation where there may not be a natural disaster or nuclear war, but maybe a complete breakdown of the system with mobs roaming the streets, takes some serious planning. And is turning out to be much harder than I thought it would be.

However, the first things are in place: 4x4 vehicles, guns, ammo, land. I've already started talking to like-minded, close friends about expanding our shooting circle and bringing wives into it to learn to handle and shoot what is in our repertoire. Fortunately, several have been with us since the beginning. Others pooh-poohed the gun angle as a "guy thing" but have since relented and will join in.

I hope it never comes to pass. But I'd rather be ready than begging.

Yozho
December 24, 2008, 05:02 AM
Tyranny usualy comes with applause and many "temporary" measures to deal with a current crisis as history shows.
Fortunately the fervor died down, most of the Patriot Act was repealed, and Bush or someone else didn't take things too much further to "protect us in the War on Terror".

And which onerous parts of the Patriot Act were actually repealed?

rmmoore
December 24, 2008, 05:52 AM
I live in a part of the country where winter storms are quite common, and being stuck or stranded for days isn't a rare thing. I've always felt and lived my life by the rule of "being willing to help anyone who is willing to help themselves" (but not to my property without permission to do so).

I was having a discussion at work many years ago, after a particularly bad storm, and the conversation turned to another nasty storm from the late 80's. That storm left everyone who lived where we did without power, in sub-freezing/near zero temps, and stuck on top of a hill with only two roads down in over 2 feet of snow, for almost a week. One of my coworkers commented on the fact that I had a gen-set, stocked up firewood, and was known to 'donate' large sums each payday at local coop stores, farmers markets, and Sam's club. He said that he could always just come to my house if the SHTF. I smiled, and said something very close to: "Oh really? What makes you think that? You guys laugh and make fun of me for my preparedness, where's yours? If you come to my house begging and wanting a handout after doing NOTHING to help yourself, I'll meet you the door with something you WON'T like, and I will use it." They seemed genuinely shocked, but also fairly certain I meant what I said. Funny thing, my 'freindship' with them cooled fairly quickly after that, and I never lost a wink of sleep over it.

SHTF scene's don't neccesarilly have to be man made to bring out the worst in people, even your "friends"!!!!!! Consider the L.A. riots, both of them, blackouts on the east coast, earthquakes, hurricanes (Katrina being a PRIME example), and you get the idea. Being far removed from the scene helps, but it doesn't totally insulate you. Think "trickle down economics".

LKB3rd
December 24, 2008, 06:38 AM
It seems the concensus is that a SHTF is more or less temporary, while TEOTWAWKI is a situation where things permanently change for the worse. I agree with this, although I do think that there could be a SHTF with permanent aftermath. In Argentina, they still talk about "pre crash" and "post crash" as two different time frames. They had a major economic SHTF in 2001. When it happened, it was fast, and people flipped out. A description of it, as well as some advice from a pretty smart guy who lived through it can be found here : http://members.cox.net/theprof/UrbanSurvival/Thoughts%20On%20Urban%20Survival.htm Things haven't been the same since, although some semblance of order has returned.

Vinny
December 24, 2008, 07:10 AM
For us, SHTF is when you dial 911 and they wish you luck.

I have to say Katrina was a weird event in that I would not expect something like that to occur in the continental US (aftermath). 9/11 seemed orderly on TV (those NY'ers seemed to work together). LA riots was a mess but we did see people coming together to protect their properties (same for Katrina).

What I fear is a biological threat whether man made or natural like a SARs/ebola outbreak. People will be less likely to help each other because you don't know if those helping or asking for help are infected. You're going to be quarantined and on your own until the men in space suits show up, if they show up, and if they will help or merely mark your door as infected.

Thin Black Line
December 24, 2008, 07:50 AM
For us, SHTF is when you dial 911 and they wish you luck.

There we go. That's at least the sound of the fart in front of the fan. Now
watch the blades...

c_jackson
December 24, 2008, 10:03 AM
Honestly, criminal element aside, I don't know what the hell a SHTF scenario would entail. I just found out the acronym TEOTWAKI, not in the military dictionary, call me naive, from another poster on this thread. My guess would be, here in rural MS, it means another Katrina situation. Neighbors would get their butts out there to help other neighbors, we would all pull together to do our best, collectively. It may not be the answer to the diehards ( someone or something moves within MY gunscope's range, it dies), but to those individuals with the Rambo mentality, didn't John Rambo not try to be peaceable until pushed? Criminals aside, aren't the people you decide to draw down on American citizens? Just helpless civilians who could use medical attention or something to eat? As gun owners, wouldn't this situation make us more powerful than everybody else around us, until we run out of ammunition? Let's face it, none of the members here, no matter how prepared, is going to run to the Federal or Remington manufacturing plant and stake a claim. You'd probably get your head blown off by the workers who had the same idea as you. If you try to run to a food processing facility, any of them, same scenario. If you're smart, you'll learn how to barter and do it fast. If not, good luck with your high-powered firearms, they'll serve you well for the short-term. After that, what are you going to do?

Just observing,

C Jackson:what:

yokel
December 24, 2008, 11:55 AM
In this country the people have the guns. This gives them the ultimate power. That isn't the case in some places:

Robert Mugabe gave warning yesterday that he would not cede power if he loses next week’s election to the Opposition in his most explicit statement yet of his refusal to respect the result.

State-controlled media reported his comments to supporters at an election rally, the latest in a series of increasingly menacing threats as Zimbabwe counts down to the June 27 presidential run-off poll. Mr Mugabe’s military-backed regime has been carrying out a campaign of violence aimed at wiping out the opposition vote.

“We fought for this country, and a lot of blood was shed,” Mr Mugabe told his supporters. “We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X. How can a ballpoint fight with a gun?”

Good question. Ask that the next time someone tells you that we don't need the Second Amendment because we have the First Amendment.

Joe Demko
December 24, 2008, 12:18 PM
The vast majority of "which gun for" discussions entirely miss the point of survival in bad times. Nearly any common gun will suffice. Shotgun, rifle, handgun...any of these will work. A gun is just one of the tools and_I know this is heresy_it isn't even the most important tool.
Knowledge is the most important. Knowledge of what is most likely to occur where you live, knowledge of what to do if it happens.
Plans are more important than guns. A man with a plan but no gun is usually better off than a man with a gun but no plan.
Supplies of food and potable water are needed overwhelmingly more often than guns. People end up evacuating to government shelters because they have no food or water much more often than because they were unarmed.
I could go on at length about this. Suffice it to say that the average non-gun owning backpacking enthusiast is better prepared to survive TSHTF than the typical boob who is fixated on guns.
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

Average Joe
December 24, 2008, 12:43 PM
Its like when the world collapsed after y2k, and in October 2008 when the market crashed.

GEM
December 24, 2008, 01:27 PM
When Bruce Willis doesn't stop the asteroid hit!

Katrina, riots, blizzards, quakes, nuclear war, economic disaster - all can lead to societal collapse.

The threads go awry when somebody starts to go ninja commando and spouts their plan to barricade their neighborhood from the UN or think the rioters are going to drive all the way to their small town in Montana.

tradja
December 24, 2008, 02:35 PM
Suffice it to say that the average non-gun owning backpacking enthusiast is better prepared to survive TSHTF than the typical boob who is fixated on guns.
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

I'm glad somebody finally noted this. I love "What gun for SHTF?" threads as much as the next guy, but really, whatever ya got (and can shoot) will do just fine.

More importantly, how much food and water do you have? Extra warm clothes/boots? First aid training? Firewood? Batteries? Tools? Chainsaw? Shovels?

In 1999, due to poor planning, I spent an unplanned night out without gear in the northern Sierra. More than "which gun" or "which $300+ knife", what I really wished I had was a sleeping bag and some more food. The best thing in my daypack wasn't a firearm, but the extra jacket and Bic lighter. I didn't need to build a log cabin and shoot bears, I just needed to get through the night so I could walk the 25 miles to the road the next day.

Macho fantasies aside, if you're reading this, you've got 1+ guns :rolleyes:, and that will cover it. If you really don't have anything yet, get any one or more of the following, take a class, and you'll be more than fine: SKS/Saiga/AK/AR/870/Glock/Hi-Point/1911/.357. End of story.

ETA: OK, JWarren (below) is correct. This is a gun board, so SHTF discussions understandably end up being pretty gun-oriented.

JWarren
December 24, 2008, 02:57 PM
Suffice it to say that the average non-gun owning backpacking enthusiast is better prepared to survive TSHTF than the typical boob who is fixated on guns.


Well, there isn't a "SHTF" thread on THR that it ISN'T brought up that guns are NOT the priority during 99% of SHTF scenerios-- so, I think we all get it by now.

Perhaps, just perhaps, many people asking the "What gun for X?" questions have already spent a great deal of time on other preperations. Maybe, but who knows.

The point being that I don't mind the SHTF gun questions. I figure that more often than not, they produce a lot of thought and information OUTSIDE the realm of guns in a SHTF and serve to educate many.

I've already been through more SHTF than most of us will ever see, so I think I've proven that I know that there's more to SHTF than guns. I figure I've earned the right to discuss whatever aspect comes up.


-- John

Joe Demko
December 24, 2008, 03:02 PM
Perhaps I was distracted and missed it when somebody tried to deprive you of that "right."

JWarren
December 24, 2008, 03:23 PM
wow... snarkey.


No, the point being that most of us DO get it. And in my case (as well as a lot of THR members), we've seen it.


-- John

jakemccoy
December 24, 2008, 03:29 PM
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

Such a thread would get locked here if it's not gun related. With almost 5,000 posts, you should know that. In fact, I vaguely recall at least one such thread being locked relatively quickly.

I personally prefer the SHTF discussion leaning toward the side of gun issues. That's why I'm here. I'll go to California-specific sites to focus on other survival issues.

Just Jim
December 24, 2008, 03:54 PM
Originally Posted by Joe Demko
Only after we get past the masturbatory fantasies of surviving being all about who you have to shoot, can we have a discussion of survivalism that is worth reading.

Sounds like a self confession. However I doubt most people here envision our survival haveing anything to do with your fantisies.

It's obviouse that SHTF means self reliance and to what degree depends on the size of the event. To keep it gun related is to recognize the threats that a gun might be used in.

jj

Zoogster
December 24, 2008, 06:10 PM
And which onerous parts of the Patriot Act were actually repealed?

Well actualy not too many, but some of the authority has been reduced.

In fact just this month it finaly became legal to talk about the FBI abusing you or asking for, siezing, or otherwise obtaining records such as ISP records!
Previously it was a crime to mention it even happened if they gave you a "National Security Letter." Like has been done to hundreds of thousands of people. Essentialy when the government gave that letter to say your ISP, or say TheHighRoad or anyplace, it would be illegal for them to even mention it.
No longer!
http://www.aclu.org/safefree/nsaspying/38113prs20081215.html

Of course every single thing online is still recorded, and most phone calls and internet traffic goes through thousands of NarusInsight systems.
However it is illegal to challenge that or bring lawsuit for that as the government has been declared protected under "Soveriegn Immunity" in the Hepting vs AT&T decision. The final appeals in many cases recently failed, the government victorious.
The actions of those involved have been made legal as they were retroactively granted immunity under the FISA Amendment of 2008.

There is secret police, there is widespread illegal to challenge surveillance, and the average person is totaly ignorant.

The ACLU, the EFF, and many others have brought numerous class action lawsuits. They were defeated with "sovereign immunity".

None of the big companies are even legaly allowed to discuss thier involvment, barred from talking or even cooperating with court.
Here is some official responses to the court ordered investigation that are a delight to read. Essentialy they regret to inform you that they cannot talk about any such thing because it would be a violation of law to discuss those things they cannot acknowledge. There is dozens of such replies, but you should enjoy these because of thier location. They may not last long on the official .gov site:
http://markey.house.gov/docs/telecomm/ATT%20wiretapping%20response_101207.pdf
http://markey.house.gov/docs/telecomm/Qwest%20wiretapping%20response_101207.pdf
http://markey.house.gov/docs/telecomm/Verizon_wiretaping_response_101207.pdf

As I said there is numerous suits about this and related wiretapping issues (they are not all the same, but they are excused under the same laws.) They have essentialy made it illegal to investigate, and anyone who discloses details about what is being done is violating federal law.
If you want to just get started in sorta understanding the extent, start here:
http://www.eff.org/nsa/hepting



There is literaly cases all over the nation which have been dropped because it is illegal to review them, and everyone is immune to subpoenas if the government says so.
I could cite literaly hundreds of pages of information, but I don't want to take things too off topic.

All I will say is many of the massive purchases of huge, and I mean immense data storage centers across the nation by government, combined with the NarusInsight installed in the backbones of most communications systems means the majority of electronic data is monitored. It is of course too much for humans to monitor, so only things they take additional interest in are reviewed after they have already been recorded automaticly.
It is not just phone records, it is the actual data transfered itself in real time that is recorded and electronicly reviewed through NarusInsight, and stored in data warehouses across the nation.

The Gestapo could never in thier wildest dreams imagined the extent of what is possible and being done today.

Joe Demko
December 24, 2008, 06:41 PM
When American citizens go abroad and publicly criticize this country and our leadership the way did is reminiscent of Jane Fonda and her antics in North Vietnam.

Your point?

anymanusa
December 24, 2008, 10:30 PM
The Los Angeles riots of 1992, also known as the Rodney King uprising or the Rodney King riots, were sparked on April 29, 1992 when a jury acquitted four police officers accused in the videotaped beating of black motorist Rodney King following a high-speed pursuit. Thousands of people in the Los Angeles area rioted over the six days following the verdict. Widespread looting, assault, arson, and murder occurred, and property damages totaled one billion dollars. Many of the crimes were racially motivated or perpetrated. In all, 53 people died during the riots.[1]

At approximately 6:45 p.m., Reginald Denny, a white truck driver who stopped at a traffic light at the intersection of Florence and South Normandie Avenues, was dragged from his vehicle and severely beaten by a mob of local residents as news helicopters hovered above, recording every blow, including a concrete fragment connecting with Denny's temple and a cinder block thrown at his head as he lay unconscious in the street. The police never appeared, having been ordered to withdraw for their own safety, although several assailants (the so-called L.A. Four) were later arrested and one, Damian Williams, was sent to prison. Instead, Denny was rescued, not by police officers, but by an unarmed, African-American civilian named Bobby Green Jr who, seeing the assault live on television, rushed to the scene and drove Denny to the hospital using the victim's own truck, which carried 27 tons of sand. Denny recovered after brain surgery. Although several other motorists were brutally beaten by the same mob, due to the live coverage, Denny remains the best-known victim of the riots.

Of course Wiki isn't the best source in the world, but I don't think they're too far off in this matter.

JWarren
December 25, 2008, 04:17 PM
Criminals aside, aren't the people you decide to draw down on American citizens? Just helpless civilians who could use medical attention or something to eat?


I don't understand the "criminals aside" qualifier in this statement.


The Three attempts at theft of my generator and fuel during Katrina were all done by "American citizens" who were in need of something that I had.

I felt that I had more need for it, and it wasn't thier position to debate that point with me. I still have my generator.


The point being that anytime you have a situation like Katrina, there will ALWAYS be people in need. Newsflash: YOU are in need, too! You NEED the things that you have, and if they were not essential, people wouldn't be coming to you in order to obtain them.

As for the "criminals aside" comment:

Couldn't it be argued that the person robbing your home feels that he NEEDS the things that he steals, or needs funds from sellilng those things?

Isn't that the exact thing we are talking about with looters stealing property from individuals, too?

I'll help a person all that I am able to, and I HAVE done that. During Katrina, I gave out food, fuel, and money to those that needed it. But I NEVER gave out to the point that my OWN family suffered for it.

However, my choice to help those that I was able to was based upon two very real things:

1.) I was able to.
2.) I realized that there was an end in sight, and we would get through it.

The looter TAKES. But he takes more than just property. He ALSO takes the decision and consideration out of your hands. He is not concerned if his theft of your property harms you, or puts you in an unlivable situation.


And that person is a needy American citizen.


Need does not make one worthy.
Need does not make one noble.
Need does not make one a greater priority than my family.



-- John

Tirod
December 25, 2008, 04:39 PM
"Your lack of prior planning does not constitute my emergency."

I've seen that posted a lot in the Army at soldier service points. I think it sums up the problem - people acting in panic to secure basic "needs," having done nothing in advance to prepare.

We've had a tornado, a crippling ice storm, the basement flooded twice, and I was out of work for months one time since moving to our current home. Not to mention deployment - so my wife had plenty to do actually moving while I was gone. Probably went smoother that way. :rolleyes:

At no time in the environmental crises did we panic and break into someone's home, or loot the grocery store. It might have helped the store, all the refrigerated goods spoiled. It took a week to rebuild the electric substation. I never saw a gun the entire time.

Where you live and the community spirit have a lot to do with the degree SHTF affects the people around you. If you have real fears about your community, somebody needs to address the underlying cause and address it.

That means moving to a small town for many.

45ACPUSER
December 25, 2008, 07:51 PM
Can you say Katrina?

Doc_Jude
December 25, 2008, 08:17 PM
Stalingrad. S H T F

Hey! Ask Vasili Zaitsev which he'd rather have: a Mosin and a handful of ammo, or a pallet of rations and warm clothes?

He'd probably say "the Mosin, of course. I'll GO GET what I need! German Rations taste better, & their boots last longer..."

ConstitutionCowboy
December 25, 2008, 08:59 PM
SHTF scenario for me is any disaster that brings about martial law, suspending the Constitution, confiscation, or any scumbag dictatorial tyrant wishing to take over the country.

For any of those scenarios, there is no such thing as too many guns and too much ammo, nor too little practice.

You also need medical supplies, groceries enough to take you to the end of the next growing season, seed, farming implements, canning and tanning supplies, possibly a bolt of denim fabric and sewing supplies, portable shelter, water purification supplies, soap, toilet paper ... and don't forget foul weather gear. This is the short list.

Make sure you have arms splined to the local game or the game where you might bug out to in addition to your defensive/offensive arms and armor.

Woody

How you prepare yourself today is all you'll have to defend yourself tomorrow. B.E. Wood

pyle
December 25, 2008, 09:10 PM
I would define it as follows:

Any time the general threat level to you, your family, your property, etc. is in any way elevated, significantly, above a day-to-day threat level - whether directly, or indirectly.

UnclePete
December 25, 2008, 09:41 PM
Confidence in the financial system falls so far that the public en masse try to draw their money in cash.
Accounts are frozen; your hole-in-the-wall card is no good, your credit cards are no good.
You cannot buy food, fuel, or anything else.
Mobs loot supermarkets.
Cops stay at home to protect their families.
Electricity supply becomes erratic.
Martial law is declared.
Troops search house-to-house for arms; those who have not surrendered them are shot.
Small bands of rural survivalists are wiped out in days by the military.



Or was that a movie I saw? Of course it could never happen - could it? :D

Logan5
December 25, 2008, 11:36 PM
If I had a nickel for every time someone told me a cannibal army was coming to eat me, I would have about 18 cents today.

Despite all the reams of overheated BS the media blows at us every day, we live in a country that is far and away made up of good people who pull together and help out their neighbors when times get tough or disaster strikes. That's the one great lesson you'd probably hear from Salvation Army or Red Cross volunteers... We have much more to be proud of and much less to be afraid of than most people suspect.

"SHTF" is a term I tend to reserve for actual living dead zombies rising to prey upon the living.

Afy
December 26, 2008, 09:51 AM
Is a very sobering thread (http://members.cox.net/theprof/UrbanSurvival/Thoughts%20On%20Urban%20Survival.htm)

Given the state of the worlds economy.... I think we are staring into the abyss... I hope and pray we back away.

Revolver Ocelot
December 26, 2008, 09:56 AM
general social upheaval that require you defend yourself from society when it goes bad

Thin Black Line
December 26, 2008, 11:16 AM
Katrina, riots, blizzards, quakes, nuclear war, economic disaster - all can lead to societal collapse.

Two of those could lead to "societal collapse", but quite frankly life
would go on.

Three of those above are actually quite local in nature and are really
non-events for the rest of this country. It will suck for you if you live
there, but other than the price of gasoline and food rising it doesn't affect
anyone more than 3 states away.

I see people do a lot of stupid stuff when they perceive that a "disaster"
has hit. Why is it that someone in the upper midwest suddenly thinks they
need an extra 100 gals of gas when X happens just on one of the coasts
or the gulf coast or whatever? Why it when there was an earthquake in
Hawaii that people rushed the last functioning gas station? Where were
they going to go? They're on a freakin' ISLAND.

90% of this is poor perception that leads to panic about their daily chocolate
and TV infusions being curtailed in some way.

Joe Demko
December 26, 2008, 11:21 AM
Almost all SHTF is very localized. Even during the Great Depression, life went on for most people. My own family, who were immigrant coal miners, saw no real changes in their day-to-day lives from it.
Realistically, while things are going all to smash for you, people a couple hours away have ice in their drinks and are watching your troubles on TV.

HexHead
December 26, 2008, 11:40 AM
To the OP, forget about Katrina already? Do some research, LEO's were nowhere to be found when the looting started.

Whachoo talkin' 'bout Willis? Did you miss the videos of the NOPD officers looting too? :banghead:

Thin Black Line
December 26, 2008, 11:40 AM
Realistically, while things are going all to smash for you, people a couple hours away have ice in their drinks and are watching your troubles on TV.

When I was in Iraq there were three types of people: those with indoor
plumbing, those with portajohns, and those who had neither. The difference
could be as far away as the other side of a compound wall or hesco barrier.

Without going to war, I think most Americans could benefit from spending a
week in a farming village in Mexico or Haiti and seeing that life doesn't actually
come to an end when there's no TP or the sound of flushing down 6 gals of
pee-tainted water that's probably cleaner than what comes out of the village
well.

Don't get me wrong --I don't want to live like that, but when I see people
doing spread sheets for water and fuel consumption to maintain modern
suburban life with air-conditioning, satellite internet, and lawn sprinkling,
it shows me they have a complete lack of long-term perspective.

FuzzyBunny
December 26, 2008, 11:47 AM
Speaking of TSHTF there is a real good paper on the web I read last year.
It details the impact of the New Madrid fault getting active. Destruction of the fragile road infrastructure in the area would demand massive airdrops of medicine and food.

Seems many bridges over the mississippi river will be taken out along with all the pipelines feeding the north east u.s. When I saw the attached pipeline map I was amazed at the number and size of them that feed the north east. The study said many areas would not be accessable for up to or more than a month. So I think an event like this that impacts 4 or 5 states directly and the rest indirectly would count.

I'm sorry I can't remember the name of the study but it was done by a thnk tank like the Rand corp or somesuch. What really got me was the impact it would have on the CONUS in a trickle down fashion. Everything from oil/energy to food production/delivery takes a hit. Many places in the direct area were to be isolated so long that law enforcement would be local neighbors banded together.

I will try and find it again and post a link here. It even went into the impact in summer vs winter. As far as firearms needed I guess if it shoots it beats a pointy stick.

Thin Black Line
December 26, 2008, 12:27 PM
As far as firearms needed I guess if it shoots it beats a pointy stick.

Sure, and I'll have some EBR nearby in SHTF, but my chainsaw will be far more
useful for removing downed trees and/or normal re-stocking of firewood for
my woodstove. My water barrels will be more useful than my 75 rd drums.

It's the panicking people who have $3k of "assault gear" and $20 of ramen
noodles as well as the clueless average Joe who has neither (and both are
bored from the lack of HDTV American Idol coverage) who suddenly think
society owed them a uninterrupted 1st world safety net who tend to over-
react when there's a bump on the long freeway of life.

There's often way too much over emphasis on preparing for the frontal assault
on the family compound from the MZB hordes rather than "what keeps my
drinking water clean". That's what gets these kind of threads closed.

People can get by on a couple cups of rice while they put their lives back in
order. However, Americans have gotten too used to the drive-thru of instant
gratification.

anymanusa
December 26, 2008, 08:22 PM
Don't get me wrong --I don't want to live like that, but when I see people
doing spread sheets for water and fuel consumption to maintain modern
suburban life with air-conditioning, satellite internet, and lawn sprinkling,
it shows me they have a complete lack of long-term perspective.

Who the hell are you talking about? No one in this thread from what I have read. You have only shown me that you have no perspective on the topic of this thread- not to mention the fact that it's in the 'Gen. Gun Disc.' forum, not the 'what it takes to feed yourself during an emergency' forum. Let's refrain from attacking anyone else and their perceived idea of what firearms will be necessary in an emergency type situation and stay on topic.

BTW, I've seen living like you describe in Iraq here in the South, in several states. You don't have to be a worldly traveled person to be a smarty pants. People have the right to live like they choose in this country, and many have chosen a minimalist approach.

Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow
December 26, 2008, 08:43 PM
Complete and utter breakdown of society - lord of the flies style savagery, mad max style survivalist skills required?

Yep, that's what I assume people mean when they use that acronym.

d2wing
December 26, 2008, 09:43 PM
I dunno if it is prudent or paranoid to think about and prepare for this stuff. But that doesn't stop me or most of us from thinking about it and posting. Exactly what the cause or extent of it is varies but I'm pretty sure Ivan and his buddies somewhere are doing the same thing.

theotherwaldo
December 26, 2008, 11:05 PM
SHTF is when the bear comes through the kitchen window to get the salmon and stomps the cabbages all over the floor.

SHTF is when the brush fire crests the ridge and panicky, injured steers are "defending themselves" from anything that moves.

SHTF is when the local gang members were paid to torch the house next to yours by a condo builder - and you walk in on the bonfire.

SHTF is when things are going very wrong right now - and help is minutes away.

Thin Black Line
December 27, 2008, 09:48 AM
Don't get me wrong --I don't want to live like that, but when I see people
doing spread sheets for water and fuel consumption to maintain modern
suburban life with air-conditioning, satellite internet, and lawn sprinkling,
it shows me they have a complete lack of long-term perspective.

Who the hell are you talking about? No one in this thread from what I have read. You have only shown me that you have no perspective on the topic of this thread-
...
BTW, I've seen living like you describe in Iraq here in the South, in several states. You don't have to be a worldly traveled person to be a smarty pants. People have the right to live like they choose in this country, and many have chosen a minimalist approach.

I just made the case for the minimalist approach. Did you knee-jerk because
you misunderstood that or because I struck a nerve and you're defending
those who have personally taken the maximumalist air-conditioned approach?

There were a wide variety of responses to how people defined what constituted
SHTF here. What some people called SHTF earlier in this thread would barely
constitute a shoulder-shrug from some here and would just be considered
another day at work by others.

Here is a bit more of my personal perspective on this topic:

http://thehighroad.org/showpost.php?p=5180819&postcount=14

Thin Black Line
December 27, 2008, 09:51 AM
...everyone here has the Constitutional right to have as many betamags
and 75 rd AK drums stacked up as they would like...barring any local or
state laws in their area.

travis74
December 27, 2008, 12:05 PM
Its like when the world collapsed after y2k, and in October 2008 when the market crashed.

That's funny.

jorb
December 27, 2008, 01:14 PM
I pretty much agree with TexasRifleman.

Stratoghost
December 28, 2008, 03:34 AM
To me SHTF is what happens after the Govt realizes there is a crisis looming in the future, builds containment camps in the US "Just In Case" and retasks the military to domestic "protection". Then walks with full knowledge into the crisis by printing trillions of dollars for whatever reason, devaluing the dollar. Eventually other countries will lose faith in the dollar and it will become worthless. Everyone who did not prepare will panic and those who did prepare will become the envy of those who did not.

Golden Hound
December 28, 2008, 03:47 AM
To me, SHTF means, quite frankly, a situation where there is no law. Where I might potentially have to shoot people and know that there are no consequences for doing so, and conversely, that there are no consequences for anyone who would want to shoot me. A SHTF scenario would entail the pre-meditated knowledge that I would have to engage multiple targets, either at once or separately.

In other words, it could only be in the context of some kind of breakdown of society.

A burglar in the house is not an SHTF situation. It's just something I'd have to deal with at the spur of the moment and hope for the best.

SHTF means if the S has hit the F for me, it has also done so for everyone else. There's no such thing as a private SHTF situation in my opinion. The phrase is synonymous with a total breakdown of law and order affecting everyone.

I have no delusions about being able to fight through a SHTF scenario single-handedly like a lone-wolf warrior in an action movie. That kind of mentality is a guaranteed failure. My best hope - all of our best hope - in this kind of scenario is to form groups. The bigger, the better.

Stratoghost
December 28, 2008, 04:05 AM
That is what I was trying to convey with my post, as most of it has already happened. If what I stated in my post happened, the Govt would be there to stop the food riots that would occur and arrest and relocate anyone who protested. Since at least half the voting public believes they are entitled to a basic living and many other things, events such as looting would become commonplace. What would happen if a week after all the groceries ran out of food, people noticed that you had a generator at your house? They might think that you might have food as well since you prepared and all. Anyone that you told about your preparations would know. How far do you think a person would be willing to go if, for the first time in their lives, they faced real starvation?

HeavenlySword
December 28, 2008, 04:33 AM
hmm...

You make people think, sinixstar....

After much thought (around 30 secs), I've decided to categorize SHTF into a few levels, the Sane Levels I-IV and Level X.

I. Ah ****, my lil sister walked in on me and SO/ I got fired

II. A rapist/mugger/other criminal broke in/something similar

III. Earthquake or hurricane, and no law for a few weeks

IV. No law for a few years, governmental collapse due to economic reasons, riot etc. Projected ~20%, + 15% of the nation dies.

Level X Oil runs out-Nuclear War-Zombie Apocalypse Projected 65% + 50% of the nation dies.

Golden Hound
December 28, 2008, 04:48 AM
I. Ah ****, my lil sister walked in on me and SO

This is not SHTF. "My SO walked in on me and her lil sister" - THAT is SHTF.

Stratoghost
December 28, 2008, 04:49 AM
I think you have something there. Specific levels of SHTF makes sense.

1. Personal.
2. Home.
3. Neighborhood.
4. Community/Town
5. Local area/City
6. Area/County
7. State
8. Country
9.World

It would be better with fewer levels as not to be confusing.

Doc_Jude
December 28, 2008, 06:22 AM
I read a lot of survival fiction, some online, just to see different ideas...
Anyways, I read a very sobering scenario: economic crash, grocery stores have problems getting deliveries, people start to riot.
MARTIAL LAW. Troops come in and start taking guns... & while they search houses for guns, they are also looking for food stockpiles, or what they now call "hoarding". THEY THEN REDISTRIBUTE YOUR SUPPLIES. Remember the recent issues with rice?

That about freaked me out. It's scary. And absolutely plausible with the current socio-political climate.

Mal H
December 28, 2008, 11:30 AM
I think the question has been answered by now along with an additional boatload of silliness.

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