The Odds of Being Murdered


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Titan6
January 23, 2009, 02:41 PM
Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

Carolyn Shoemaker has put the odds of the asteroid Aprohis (about the size of the Superdome) smashing into the Earth at about 1 in 45,000. This would be bad of course. How bad no one knows for sure.

Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.

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R.W.Dale
January 23, 2009, 02:45 PM
Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.

fire extinguishers and firearms

and probably significantly less than dying in a fire (3000 or so deaths in 05). But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm.

I think a sticky along these lines posted at the top of this board would bring a much needed reality check to these forums and could also be used as stats against anti's

Nautilus
January 23, 2009, 02:48 PM
lol, thats an interesting way of looking at it.

If you were to break down those odds even more... say by occupation. Like removing those working the night shift at convenience stores or removing drug users/dealers... the odds of being murdered by a stranger would shrink even more nevermind being murdered in your own home.

chuwee81
January 23, 2009, 02:50 PM
haha, yea i just bought one a week ago, also it's SHTF (s--- hits the fan) :)

well, i am to darn lazy to search on home robberies statistics (gun point) in your own home but i didn't worry about it until my wife became part of it. She got robbed last year in front of her townhome. So that's why we're packing now.

R.W.Dale
January 23, 2009, 02:51 PM
41,059 deaths on American roads in 2007

someone better at math than me needs to break this down

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 02:52 PM
She got robbed last year in front of her townhome

Your chances of getting robbed/ mugged are significantly higher of course.

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 02:52 PM
Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.
You are making an assuption here. This is not fact, and I would like you to actually do the research if you are going to claim that it is.

I don't carry a gun because I'm affraid I'll be murdered by a stranger. I carry a gun to prevent myself from being murdered, raped, beaten to a bloody pulp, mugged, held hostage, etc. And when you add that there are usually anywhere from 5-200 people within my field of vision that I can protect from having the same things happen, I am much more likely to need a gun than you might think.

If you want to get the actual odds for needing to defend yourself with a gun, your equation needs to not only include the 16,000 gun murders, but also include:

-All of the other kinds of murder
-Assaults
-Rapes
-Robberies/Muggings
-Animal attacks
-Terrorist attacks

And then devide the number by 5-200, since most of us are willing to protect the people around us from the same things, and your odds are probably more like 1 in 20. Hang out in a bad neighborhood long enough and it's more like 1 in 2. Hang out in a fancy gated community and it's more like 1 in 2000.

armoredman
January 23, 2009, 02:53 PM
Ok, I'll bite - what caliber for asteroid?
You know SOMEONE had to say it!
As for the facts, sure, in certain areas the risk is higher, and in certain areas the risk is far less. An overview statistic is meaningless in the specifics, especially if you ARE the one getting killed in your home.

And I have two fire extinguishers, smoke/CO detectors, dogs, alarms, and other ways of dealing with various emergencies. Because not being able to save my family in a moment of crisis would be far worse than the money saved not having these items.

wyocarp
January 23, 2009, 02:55 PM
But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm


I had working smoke alarms in my house a few years back and it still burned down.

But, a intruder's chance of making out of my house alive if we are home are somewhere between slim and none.

scottgun
January 23, 2009, 02:55 PM
Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

Why is it significant to only be murdered by a stranger? Gettting killed by an acquaintance would be just as bad.

Guy de Loimbard
January 23, 2009, 02:56 PM
It's not about the odds, it's about the stakes.

wyocarp
January 23, 2009, 02:58 PM
Oh, I beg to differ. It is about the odds. It's about the odds of beating the odds when the stakes become really high.

taliv
January 23, 2009, 03:00 PM
expvideo, don't forget that's a per year number. if you live 80 years...

Duke of Doubt
January 23, 2009, 03:05 PM
Only 80?

A 2% chance of being shot down on a mission over Germany might not sound too bad. But over a fifty mission tour?

R.W.Dale
January 23, 2009, 03:07 PM
expvideo, don't forget that's a per year number. if you live 80 years...

that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 03:10 PM
According to an anti website:
FACT:In 2005 (the most recent year for which data is available), there were 30,694 gun deaths in the U.S:


12,352 homicides (40% of all U.S gun deaths),
17,002 suicides (55% of all U.S gun deaths),
789 unintentional shootings, 330 from legal intervention and 221 from undetermined intent (5% of all U.S gun deaths combined).
(source http://www.ichv.org/Statistics.htm)

That's a lot less than 16000. I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers. I think you made it up. I didn't realize that 2008 statistics were available.

Also, these aren't murders. These are homicides. That means every time a cop shoots a bad guy, you defend your home from a bad guy or the border patrol shoots somebody in a gunfight on the border. That's right. Justifiable homicides are calculated in there, which means that they are not all murders.

Very few people are actually murdered with a firearm. People are murdered more often with other methods. But like I said earlier, murder is not the only thing that carrying a gun prevents. There are a lot of violent crimes that are prevented by firearms that are not murder.

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 03:11 PM
that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises

that's true. It's like flipping a coin. It can be heads 50 times in a row, and your odds of the next flip being tails are still 1 in 2.

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 03:20 PM
EXP- Try the FBI instead of Wikipedia (or wherever you went).

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/ucr_statistics010708.html

I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers.

The first half of 2008 is in, not the whole year. I extrapolated and rounded off based on 2007 numbers and the rate of increase in the first half of 2008. Notice I said "about" and not exactly. If I knew the exact numbers I would post them. I think we can agree that we are within say 10% here?

indoorsoccerfrea
January 23, 2009, 03:23 PM
but the odds of it being heads 50 times in a row is...about 1 over 1258999070000000 (i actually calculated that!). i think you have a greater chance of being a victim of violent crime than that. While it is true that i more than likely will not be murdered or have a close acquaintance who is murdered, the odds are still too high for me.

taliv
January 23, 2009, 03:27 PM
that still doesn't change the odds as related to other potental untimely demises

maybe, but it was being compared to death-by-asteroid, so unless you're saying that asteroid spins by the earth annually, it seems relevant.

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 03:32 PM
but it was being compared to death-by-asteroid, so unless you're saying that asteroid spins by the earth annually, it seems relevant.

The asteroid is supposed to swing by a few times but only once close enough to pose a threat. However many astronomers put the odds of a medium sized asteroid (5 story office building size) striking the Earth at about 50% in the next 50 years.

scottgun
January 23, 2009, 03:40 PM
Well, everybody's chance of dying is 100%, in the aggregate.

It's the how and when that is the concern and taking preventable measures to avoid an early demise.

Dr. Tad Hussein Winslow
January 23, 2009, 03:45 PM
What caliber for asteroid - tee hee. :) That IS actually one of the possible proposed methods of avoiding a collision with a NEO (near earth object) - essentially shooting it with a nuclear warhead far out to divert it's course - like armageddon blowing it up, sorta, but without the necessity of landing on it.

But I bet less than half the cocked&locked STHF crowd here has a fire extinguisher in their home or even a working smoke alarm.

I would bet that you are very incorrect about that. I would think that 75-90% at least, of said "shtf crowd" have both a fire extinguisher and smoke alarm - heck the majority of households do, and these types (such as myself) are more careful than the average public member, not less careful, generally speaking.

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 03:49 PM
EXP- Try the FBI instead of Wikipedia (or wherever you went).

http://www.fbi.gov/page2/jan08/ucr_s...ics010708.html


I would like to know where you got your figure or 16000, and where you got the figure of 8000 strangers.

The first half of 2008 is in, not the whole year. I extrapolated and rounded off based on 2007 numbers and the rate of increase in the first half of 2008. Notice I said "about" and not exactly. If I knew the exact numbers I would post them. I think we can agree that we are within say 10% here?
The link you sent me to has no numbers, only percentage increases for the first 6 months of 2007. 2008 is not referenced. At all. Where are your 2008 numbers coming from?

AND you skipped my second half of the question. Where did you get that 50% of the so-called murders were committed by strangers? (sorry for the bold, I didn't want you to miss it again)

I almost missed this one:
Carolyn Shoemaker has put the odds of the asteroid Aprohis (about the size of the Superdome) smashing into the Earth at about 1 in 45,000. This would be bad of course. How bad no one knows for sure.

You mean to tell me that they can calculate the odds of an asteroid hitting and they are confident in those findings, but the same scientists have no idea what the damage would be? Or is it possible that they are smart enough to know what would happen if the asteroid hit, and you just made up the "no one knows" part based on your own assumptions. I think you are making a lot of your own opinions out to be fact in this thread. I think that they only things you have been able to say so far that have even the loosest fact behind them are that 16,000 (still unconfirmed) people were "murdered" (still unconfirmed), and that Carolyn Shoemaker thinks there is a 1 in 45,000 chance of us being hit by the asteroid Aprohis.


Let me get back on topic. You still need to provide a source for the following:

- Actual numbers for 2007 or 2008 that indicates a close number to 16,000
- Any kind of evidence that those were actually "murders" and not "homicides"... I'll save you some time. They were homicides, which means any time a person was killed with a firearm, regardless of whether or not it was justified, and including people shot by cops.
- Some kind of evidence supporting your claim that 50% of your "murders" were committed by strangers.

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 03:58 PM
You have to look at the PDF on the website.

The FBI's supplementary Homicide Report lists the number of people murdered by those they knew. For example it is different for females:

In 2003, there were 1,817 females murdered by males in single victim/single
offender incidents that were submitted to the FBI for its Supplementary Homicide
Report.11 These key findings from the report, expanded upon in the following sections,
dispel many of the myths regarding the nature of lethal violence against women:
o For homicides in which the victim to offender relationship could be
identified, 92 percent of female victims (1,547 out of 1,689) were
murdered by someone they knew.

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 04:08 PM
You have to look at the PDF on the website

What PDF? Are you talking about the "Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report"? Because that doesn't give any numbers, only percentages. And surprise surprise, you are again assuming something. Murder does not = homicide. Taking the homicide numbers from 2006 and applying the percentage increase in murder from 2007, and then calling it all murder, is absolutely incorrect. You have nothing. Get me a real source or stop claiming that things you make up and assume are facts.

You've missed my question again. Where did you get that 50% of murder is committed by a stranger?

triggerman7.62
January 23, 2009, 04:08 PM
You can make anything into a statistic if you try hard enough. It is true that the amount of roads being paved goes up then when the amount of ice cream sold goes up… think about it they don’t really pave a whole lot in the winter and people buy more ice cream when its hot out... so when it gets warmer out more road are paved and the sale of ice cream goes back up…

Hoppy590
January 23, 2009, 04:09 PM
i dont care if the odds are
1:100
or
1:1,00,000,000

being that 1 sucks. no one should have to be defenseless

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 04:11 PM
In 2003, there were 1,817 females murdered by males in single victim/single
offender incidents that were submitted to the FBI for its Supplementary Homicide
Report.11 These key findings from the report, expanded upon in the following sections,
dispel many of the myths regarding the nature of lethal violence against women:
o For homicides in which the victim to offender relationship could be
identified, 92 percent of female victims (1,547 out of 1,689) were
murdered by someone they knew.
92 percent of women murdered by men does not = 50% of all murder.

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 04:19 PM
I don't know if you are reading impaired internet imparied or just being belligerent (although based upon previous posts I am going for the later).

From your quote:

92 percent of female victims (1,547 out of 1,689) were
murdered by someone they knew.

Restated by you to:

92 percent of women murdered by men does not = 50% of all murder.

These are not even the same thing and you posted one on top of the other. But I will concede that these are homicides and not murders.

expvideo
January 23, 2009, 04:23 PM
These are not even the same thing and you posted one on top of the other.

You are right, I typed it in too much of a hurry. what I meant to say was this:

92 percent of women murdered by someone they know does not = 50% of all murder.

Now that you've had your fun picking apart my post, why don't you start backing up your 50% claim.

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 04:27 PM
Here you go big guy. Run it any way you want.

http://www.ojjdp.ncjrs.gov/ojstatbb/ezashr/asp/vic_selection.asp

waterhouse
January 23, 2009, 04:56 PM
Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

Is your point that I don't need to carry a firearm because the odds are so small that anything will happen, or are you just having fun with numbers?

Librarian
January 23, 2009, 04:59 PM
Ignoring 2008 for the moment, UCR Expanded Homicide Data Table 9 (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/offenses/expanded_information/data/shrtable_09.html) says for 2007 there were
14,831 total murder victims
of which
1,924 were killed by a stranger and
6,848 were killed by someone, relationship unknown.

I don't think 50% by strangers can be supported.

OTOH, ordinarily family and acquaintances are initially 'good suspects' and often are investigated; if the investigation is thorough, and those initial suspects are not confirmed, 'stranger' is what's left, mixed with 'we are sure X did it, but cannot prove it', in unknown proportion.

As to the distinction between 'homicide' and 'murder', it's certainly significant in a legal sense, but not particularly important in a statistical sense.

FBI (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2007/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html) says Law enforcement reported 645 justifiable homicides in 2007. Of those, law enforcement officers justifiably killed 391 individuals, and private citizens justifiably killed 254 individuals.645 is just over 4% of the murders+justifiable homicides. Similarly (http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2006/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html), Law enforcement reported 617 justifiable homicides in 2006. Of those, law enforcement officers justifiably killed 376 individuals, and private citizens justifiably killed 241 individuals.17,034 murders reported, so 617 was about 3.5% of total homicides.

Odds of being murdered, of course are strongly related to race, gender and age. In 2005, black males 20-24 years old were victims of homicide at 111.55 / 100,000, 25-29 years - 100.55 / 100,000.

Frankly, that's terrifying.

ETA -- and 2005 was a good year - for the same two groups, the rates per 100,000 were 1989: 134 and 131; 1990: 141 and 136; 1991: 154 and 133; 1992: 147 and 122; 1993: 163 and 124.

elkhuntingfool
January 23, 2009, 05:02 PM
Found this on the web:

http://www.funny2.com/odds.htm

Titan6
January 23, 2009, 05:07 PM
Is your point that I don't need to carry a firearm because the odds are so small that anything will happen, or are you just having fun with numbers?

Mostly having fun with numbers.

But also I see a lot of threads on gun boards about "What type of bazooka do I need for Home Defense" when depending upon your neighborhood there is little to no threat. What I don't see enough of IMO are realistic threat assessments and proper remediation measures for those threats.

If we look at post #2 about fire extinguishers that was the road I had hoped we were headed down until expvideo wanted to have a largely irrelevant conversation about the numbers. Even assuming he is right and gun related murders are lower (I will go with whatever numbers he wants to go down to) that just brings much more credence to my argument that the threat to you from a home intruder is even lower than I initially posted.

Your "need" to carry a firearm is really unimportant to me. Your right to carry one is super important to me.

waterhouse
January 23, 2009, 05:16 PM
when depending upon your neighborhood there is little to no threat.

I agree with you that in many neighborhoods there is little to no threat, and I also agree with the fire extinguisher analogy.

As for the general numbers, I'd take out the restraints of "gun" and "stranger". If someone is trying to murder me, I'm not concerned with what they are using or how well they may know me.

In fact, I'd take the issue of murder out of it entirely. If someone breaks into my house and I am home, even if they don't end up murdering me so that I can become a statistic, I'd rather have a gun, so as to up the odds that I not become that statistic.

I'd rather see data that says "the chance of someone breaking into your home is 1 in 42,000." Unfortunately I don't think the odds are that great.

I just checked a couple websites. It appears that in 2006 there were about 109 million households in the US, and there were about 2.18 million burglaries. Also during 2006 firefighters responded to about 412,000 house fires in the US. The odds of an unwanted person being in someone's home is apparently about 4 times greater than your house catching fire, so you might need your gun more than a fire extinguisher.

MIgunguy
January 23, 2009, 05:47 PM
How long before this thread gets locked? The "suicides at the gun range" thread is already locked, this one won't be around much longer.

545days
January 24, 2009, 01:50 AM
This argument seems to track the old anti argument "A family member is more likely to be shot with a gun in the house than a stranger."

My reply is to ask if they have ever watched the TV series "Cops". If your family behaves like those depicted in domestic disturbances on Cops, then you are right, you don't need a gun in the house.

If your family is not involved in drugs or drunken brawls, and no one in the family is seriously mentally ill, the odds are considerably more in your favor.

That said, I once caught a burglar at gun point. low probability events do occasionally happen.

http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=382755

Deanimator
January 24, 2009, 11:15 AM
There is NOTHING I can do to prevent myself from being killed by an asteroid.

There's a LOT I can do to prevent myself from being killed by the next Alton Coleman.

Regardless of whether my odds of being attacked are .001% or 72%, why would I want to push the odds that the attack will be SUCCESSFUL towards 100%?

If I don't have a firearm, the odds against me being able to defend myself with one are 100%. Given that statistically, the safest response to violent crime is to defend yourself with a gun, why would I NOT want to?

Mike J
January 24, 2009, 11:37 AM
Just wanted to say- We do have fire extinguishers & smoke alarms in the house. Along with Handguns & shotguns for self defense. I am sure there is some contingency we are not prepared for but all you can do is try. As far as the numbers-that really means nothing to me what does matter is my familys safety & well being.
I don't really consider myself one of the SHTF crowd but if something bad happened & I didn't act. If I hadn't made any effort to prepare myself & something happened to my wife or children I believe it would eat me up pretty bad.

Mello
January 24, 2009, 11:55 AM
You are much more likely to die from a medical mistake that being murdered by a firearm.

"An average of 195,000 people in the USA died due to potentially preventable, in-hospital medical errors in each of the years 2000, 2001 and 2002, according to a new study of 37 million patient records that was released today by HealthGrades, the healthcare quality company."

I guess that makes doctors and hospitals dangerous.:eek:

regal
January 24, 2009, 12:06 PM
The issue is that there are pockets of high crime areas where the murder odds are much higher. The odds of being eaten by a great white shark are miniscule unless you are diving the great barrier reef during seal breeding season.

You can't always avoid the bad crime areas.

misternothingman
January 24, 2009, 12:06 PM
According to a news program I recently watched.........

Since 4 of the last 8 Illinois governors (Rod included) have done something that will land them in prison, and only 47% of murders result in conviction of a murderer, you are more likely to go to prison if you're elected governor of Illinois than if you murder someone.

This came to mind when all of the "relationship unknown" and "50% of murders are by strangers" talk came about. If that 47% stat is true, then there is no way to know who did what, and when, or whether they knew the person.

The first thing everyone needs to know about statistics is that they can be bent to say anything.

"Over 70% of all statistics are made up on the spot"

subknave
January 24, 2009, 01:01 PM
Mark Twain is supposed to have said "There are lies, damn lies, and then theirs statistics."

The odds of you encountering a dangerous criminal are entirely dependent on where you are. If you really want to know for your area go to one of the several websites that break it down by city. Some cities and areas are much more dangerous than others and areas with gang violence are generally bad for gun violence. (hence all the "children" between 15 and 25 being victims of gun violence) One should note however that the antis generally use either numbers or statistics depending on which is more impresive. For example (caution made up numbers) saying 20,000 women were killed by guns sounds mor impressive than less than 1% of women were victims of gun violence but if say 100 gangbangers died and 74 were shot by other gang mambers then it would be spouted as 74% of children died by gunfire or some such manipulation.
Statistics are very slippery things and easy to manipulate.

gbran
January 24, 2009, 01:14 PM
It would be nice to figure in risky places and risky activities. I don't go to the bad part of town at night ( and rarely in daylight either). I avoid crowded places too.

Deanimator
January 24, 2009, 02:51 PM
The odds of you encountering a dangerous criminal are entirely dependent on where you are.
Of course there's no "invisible fence" for dangerous criminals. They go where they think they have safe working conditions, Chicago and New York City for instance.

It would be nice to figure in risky places and risky activities. I don't go to the bad part of town at night ( and rarely in daylight either). I avoid crowded places too.
I wouldn't consider the Lane Bryant clothing store in Tinley Park, Illinois to be especially risky. I've been in the neighborhood on several occasions. That didn't stop six women from being shot in the head execution style there. Most of us wouldn't consider clothes shopping in a suburban strip mall to be especially "risky" either... but five of those six women are still dead.

As far as crowded places go, that's a good place go to avoid being robbed for the most part. On the other hand, depending upon the circumstances, it might be a good place to get shot. Seems like lately, any large public gathering in Chicago has at least one gang related shooting. One wonders HOW, given the city ban on handguns and the statewide ban on concealed carry. Perhaps it's Chicago cops or aldermen shooting each other at Taste of Chicago? After all, they're the only ones in Chicago authorized to carry...

ReadyontheRight
January 25, 2009, 01:56 AM
Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

Carolyn Shoemaker has put the odds of the asteroid Aprohis (about the size of the Superdome) smashing into the Earth at about 1 in 45,000. This would be bad of course. How bad no one knows for sure.

Since many of the people that were murdered in the US were killed outside of their homes (could not find hard numbers on this) the chance of an intruder breaking into your home and killing you is likely significantly less than the odds of the Earth being struck by a large asteroid in the next 40 years.

The odds of starving to death are very low.

That does not mean I plan to stop eating.

Bill of Ojai
January 25, 2009, 02:07 AM
Of curse I have a fire extinguisher. You've never seen my wife cook.

Cuda
January 25, 2009, 02:11 AM
Chances are you won't get killed if you have a weapon and know how to use it.


C

DeathByCactus
January 25, 2009, 02:15 AM
Wow... so those murdered few just have some awful luck :(.

p.s. I have a fire extinguisher sitting 10 feet away from me :what:

BenReal
January 25, 2009, 07:41 AM
The odds of being murdered go up and down depending where you live or where you travel.

But they never go away.

Heck,people are getting staulked and murdered in National Parks because there simply is no law enforcement around and those victims are looked at as easy targets.

subknave
January 25, 2009, 08:53 AM
" wouldn't consider the Lane Bryant clothing store in Tinley Park, Illinois to be especially risky. I've been in the neighborhood on several occasions. That didn't stop six women from being shot in the head execution style there. Most of us wouldn't consider clothes shopping in a suburban strip mall to be especially "risky" either... but five of those six women are still dead."

The point is that the odds are never 0 but the odds of getting killed at the Lane Bryant store were less than getting killed if your in the south side of chicago after dark wearing gang colors. The odds of getting killed in school are low even with the Virginia Tech, Columbine etc. Thats part of the problem with congress making laws based on isolated incidents and not researching the whole picture. Somehow I think it is wrong to make a law that affects 100% of the people based on something that happened to a few or 1. You can't tell me that the GCA of 68 was not fallout from the Kennedy and King assasinations.

Titan6
January 25, 2009, 11:14 AM
Your chances of being killed in Lane Bryant will go down considerably this year. Lane Bryant is a step away from being dying themselves.

olivedrab
January 25, 2009, 11:25 AM
you know, i'm not that big of gambler anyway

i'll just continue to carry

rbernie
January 25, 2009, 12:10 PM
My chances of being killed by lightning go down significantly if I avoid dancing on an open field during a thunderstorm waving a metal pole about. I may still be killed by lightning someday, but by exercising appropriate behavior I can significantly reduce the odds.

And so I refrain from doing my best Gene Kelly imitation on the soccer field in a thunderstorm.

Just as my behavior can impact that likelihood, so does my behavior of securing my surroundings and carrying viable means of self-defense help ensure that I'm less likely to be molested by goblins.

Owen Sparks
January 25, 2009, 01:12 PM
I read somewhere that late shift convienience store workers, taxi drivers and liquor store clerks are something like 11 times more likely to be shot on the job than a policeman.

Fburgtx
January 25, 2009, 02:38 PM
Just once, I'd like to see a statistic that incorporates the "criminal history" of murder victims. Let's take a look and see how many of these "victims" have prior felony convictions for rape/assault/drug dealing. I'd like to know how many "murders" are actually drug deals gone wrong, gangs "settling scores", etc.

I've got a sneaking suspicion that if we could figure out how many people were killed while just "minding their own business" (as opposed to thugs killing other thugs), we'd see the "murder rate" drop quite a bit......

Kleanbore
January 25, 2009, 02:49 PM
I'd like to know how many "murders" are actually drug deals gone wrong, gangs "settling scores", etc.

I recall seeing something to the effect that about half of the murders in San Diego involved gangs.

Also, I've heard that stats involving people killed by "someone they know" include a lot of gang members.

Rush
January 25, 2009, 05:44 PM
Last year there were about 16,000 gun murders in the US. Half of those were committed by strangers. So figure about 8000 people were murdered by strangers in a country of 300,000,000. Playing with statistics this gives you about 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger.

If someone wants to use this statistic to argue against gun rights, then you must include the number of murders which were PREVENTED by guns. Perhaps I have a 1 in 42,000 chance of being murdered with a gun by a stranger, but that does not mean I only have a 1 in 42,000 chance of being attacked or threatened with a gun. Because people carry guns in the U.S., many murders are thwarted, and not just confrontations; the very fact that concealed carry exists discourages crime. The same applies to home invasion. The TRUE odds of you being killed by a criminal stranger, or have your home invaded, if there were a complete gun ban, are MUCH higher.

jackdanson
January 25, 2009, 05:54 PM
Half of those were committed by strangers.

Don't believe it. Source?

I'm guessing waay more perps are known by or related to the victim.

Double Naught Spy
January 25, 2009, 06:20 PM
Half of those were committed by strangers.

I don't care if it is by a stranger or someone I know, I don't want to be murdered.

Doc_Jude
January 25, 2009, 07:01 PM
I don't care if it is by a stranger or someone I know, I don't want to be murdered.

And THAT'S the point. People have car insurance/spare tires/jumper cables, home owners/renters insurance, health insurance, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, ipecac & activated charcoal/carbon for accidental poisoning, water/food/generators in case of all kinds of situations, situations that are very unlikely statistically to happen...

And we don't question the necessity for any of these preparations.

Why should preparations for Armed Assault, Strong Arm or Armed Robbery, Rape, Kidnapping, or Murder be treated differently? Are my possessions somehow more valuable than the safety or virginity of my daughters, or our lives? What in the world could possibly be going on in the minds of "antis" that their priorities are so skewed?

Titan6
January 25, 2009, 11:14 PM
Half of those were committed by strangers.
Don't believe it. Source?

You see the problem is there are many, many unsolved murders in the US. So often the relationship is unknown. We can speculate about the true numbers but since we will never know 100% we can only go with the numbers where the killer was known.

Jeff White
January 26, 2009, 02:32 PM
You see the problem is there are many, many unsolved murders in the US. So often the relationship is unknown.

You should download the .pdf manual for UCR reporting and read how the data is gathered before you draw conclusions like that from the UCR.

jimmyraythomason
January 26, 2009, 02:42 PM
What caliber for astroid,you asked? A .223 or .45acp should do nicely. There is that "overpenetration" problem to deal with though.

Duke of Doubt
January 26, 2009, 02:57 PM
The creepiest statistic/probability in crime is the likelihood of being caught if you randomly select a person with whom you have no connection, and kill them without any witnesses and without leaving physical trace.

I don't recall it offhand, but it's vanishingly small. Practically zero, in fact.

Lightninstrike
January 26, 2009, 03:06 PM
And THAT'S the point. People have car insurance/spare tires/jumper cables, home owners/renters insurance, health insurance, smoke and carbon monoxide detectors, fire extinguishers, ipecac & activated charcoal/carbon for accidental poisoning, water/food/generators in case of all kinds of situations, situations that are very unlikely statistically to happen...

And we don't question the necessity for any of these preparations.

Was trying to figure out to say this but Doc did a better job.

CWL
January 26, 2009, 06:30 PM
1 in 42,000 huh?

Sure would suck to be that "1" wouldn't it?

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