What's your bet that guns will be cheap...


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Big Bill
February 26, 2009, 12:54 AM
a year from now when the Obama mania ends. I bet all the pawn shops will be overflowing with good guns for sale cheap. What do you think?

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wrc376
February 26, 2009, 12:56 AM
that be my plan laddie

2RCO
February 26, 2009, 01:02 AM
I am hoping you are correct but I it will be a few years. The panic gun buying has a bit to do with economic fears etc. that aren't all Obama related.

gbran
February 26, 2009, 01:06 AM
Maybe not. The new AWB will remove a lot of guns from the marketplace.

Legacy 6
February 26, 2009, 01:09 AM
I say "No Dice" brother. The prices and demand has gone up, and there it will stay for a while, anyway.

No dice I say again. PBO will make getting desirable guns difficult, then ammo, then reloading equipment... Everything will be a small portion of the over all picture... but it's coming.

Good luck guys.

Claude Clay
February 26, 2009, 01:15 AM
my guess is june into july for lots of product at last years prices. been seeing more than a lot of returns already--but $ is still on the high side.

Dumptruck
February 26, 2009, 01:16 AM
Holder was on ABC News tonight. Said he wants to get the AWB put back in place. The prices are not going to go down.

cratti
February 26, 2009, 02:45 AM
Chances are, between all the firearms sales and ammunition purchases prices will be forced down eventually to compensate for lack of demand.

average_shooter
February 26, 2009, 02:51 AM
Didn't y'all hear? It's their last-ditch effort to save the economy. They just need to keep floating rumors of another AWB to keep people buying guns so there's at least one sector of the economy that stays afloat.

After all, think about how much they're making on the firearms sales taxes and how many sham business ventures they can buy out or prop up with all that money.

:p

rogertc1
February 26, 2009, 06:38 AM
If you had not bought guns, expecially semi-auto rifles and pistols, for the last 3 years pre-election you only have only yourself to blame. The House and Senate are all anti-gun and in majority along with the Whitehouse.
You are however taking a risk if they ban and don't grandfather.

NRA_guy
February 26, 2009, 06:55 AM
I am always amazed at the naivete of some fairly intelligent folks.

Here we are in the midst of the greatest fight in the history of the nation to preserve our Second Amendment Rights, with a President, Congress, most governors and state legislatures, the courts, the national media, and the UN all pushing to eliminate our right to own and use firearms, and some devoted firearm folks cannot see where this is headed.

It is possible that guns will become cheap, but if so it will only be because the government has banned the manufacture and selling of most types of ammunition.

Richard.Howe
February 26, 2009, 06:57 AM
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=6960824&page=1

Umm, I'd say low.

Bill2e
February 26, 2009, 07:09 AM
I hope your right so I can buy more.

MachIVshooter
February 26, 2009, 11:35 AM
Well, they're never going to be cheaper than they were Nov. 3rd. That said, and assuming that the buying craze ceases before any type of ban, in time the prices of AR's and AK's will probably fall to a more reasonable number. I just can't imagine anyone spending $600 for a WASR if there are 8 of them on every gun shop shelf because they've stopped flying out the door.

I also expect we'll see quite a few barely used guns for sale at decent prices due to all the folks who panic bought on credit they won't be able to pay back as our economy worsens further.

Amunition, however, is not going to come back down. The days of $250 for a case of 5.56 are long gone and never to return.

Just Jim
February 26, 2009, 11:39 AM
My bet, is that a year from now you and your family will be struggleing just to eat because of the way Obama is running the economy. Your gun might be the only way food is brought in.

jj

Duke of Doubt
February 26, 2009, 11:40 AM
Following the Hayes decision, the Fourth Circuit and by extension the nation will be flooded with perhaps hundreds of thousands of guns now held by prohibited persons, who now must sell at any price. Prices will dip for awhile.

OAKVILLE SHOOTER
February 26, 2009, 01:43 PM
I agree with MachIV. As the economy gets worse and people are faced with things like eating and forclosures, they will sell off at least some of their guns trying to make ends meet.

I try to make it a point not to sell any of my guns, but I don't really need all that I have and if things get bad enough, some of them are definitely "disposable."

Vonderek
February 26, 2009, 01:50 PM
You're dreaming. They're just getting started. By 2012 you will be lucky to be able to buy many guns and the ammo to put in them. Better get into blackpowder. Oh yeah, gunpowder sales will be banned too or highly restricted to "keep out of the hands of terrorists."

KBintheSLC
February 26, 2009, 01:53 PM
This looks exactly like the commodities investment forums during the big oil bubble of early 2008. Doom, gloom, destruction!

I'm not saying another ban is not imminent... but a lot of folks around here are taking sensationalism to a whole new level.

If you really want to make a difference, don't whine about it on a forum full of like-minded people... we already agree with you. Instead, go out and educate an anti near you, teach a new shooter to shoot, write to your reps.

BTW, supply is already beginning to bulge around here. Back in Dec 08, you needed a miracle to find an AK for sale locally. Now the local classifieds and shops are full of them. The bubble may burst sooner than you think.

CWL
February 26, 2009, 01:58 PM
If prices drop, it won't be until after 2010. It won't be until then that we'll get a better picture of whether this economy will improve.

If the economy keeps tanking, then the only good deals will be occasional re-sales from people needing to unload their 'toy' collection to keep food on the table.

DAdams
February 26, 2009, 02:17 PM
July 2009, Any Large City USA, but probably Detroit, Atlanta or LA. Temperatures hit 104 degrees. No AC, water supplies running low. No ice, no free gas, no bedroom or bath, foreclosures continue to rise. Homeless shelters overflowing and no more beds available. Unemployment 12%. First benefits running out. Civil unrest and disobedience. The morning briefing with PROTUS and the CIA and FBI and HLC revolve around stabilizing the domestic populace.

Nope prices aren't coming down, nor is demand slowing.

Ammotogo just shipped another few hundred rounds today within five days.

LTR shooter
February 26, 2009, 02:25 PM
The prices of guns , ammo and reloading supplies have risen quite a bit in the last few years even before anyone knew who Barrack Osama was. Guns are getting to be beyond the realm of affordability for me. I just hope I can still afford to shoot my rimfire guns here in a few years. Guns cheap? Don't think so.

ezenbrowntown
February 26, 2009, 02:27 PM
I think they'll come back down. Paranoia and panic have the market where it is right now, and it settle down. I remember everyone telling me how the world would be over and people would be rioting in the street if Obama won the election. It didn't look anything like that.

Maybe the adminstration will do something about a ban, but I think they've got too many fish to fry right now. I'd tell you that you should write you Congressman, but your best bet would be to find a way to the top of a large corporation, thereby enabling you to hire your own lobbyists......:D That's probably your best. Well, quit reading and get to climbing that corporate ladder!!! :p

fiddleharp
February 26, 2009, 03:04 PM
Well, the starry-eyed lemmings who jumped on the "Change" bandwagon during the campaign will certainly get their wish.
Obama has surrounded himself with a pretty sinister inner circle.
This is gonna get interesting.

TRGRHPY
February 26, 2009, 03:26 PM
Supposedly DPMS is currently kicking out ~3,500 rifles while they are taking ~7,000 orders...can't remember if it was per/wk or per/month. At least until manufacturers can catch up with current orders, I don't see prices coming down...that would just be bad business.

Prion
February 26, 2009, 03:50 PM
I am always amazed at the naivete of some fairly intelligent folksHey, you may think you know what's going to happen but you don't. Let other people express their opinions, like your post they are only that, opinions. You may be proven right in the end but that doesn't mean that right now you know more than anyone. You sound like a liberal anti that 'knows' what's right for everyone. Why don't you start a blog we can all read so we know what to think and won't have to excercise our right to free speech.

I went to a shop yesterday that's an hour away so I don't frequent it too often. This place had seriously reloaded, all kinds of AK's, AR's, .50 cals, and piles of 1911's, XDM's, Glocks etc etc. The ammo selection was totally replenished with mil to gold medal in all calibers. Even had a Scout Squad someone just put money down on. They have obviously been able to restock so I think the mania is waning. Yeah, Holders comments won't help but I think most panic buyers already bought. I do think we are in for a rough ride though and if there is something you really want to own I'd buy it now or at least order it. spend the rest of your money on ammo, I'm sending my kids to the soup kitchen! My two cents.

Travis Bickle
February 26, 2009, 03:59 PM
The economy is in the toilet and people have to eat. This buying spree can't last much longer. It will probably end at about the same time supply catches up to it. When that happens, the market will be glutted with guns and ammo like it's never been glutted before. If you're one of the lucky ones to have some disposable income when that happens, you'll find some deals of a lifetime.

Weedy
February 26, 2009, 05:12 PM
What ARLover said.

browningguy
February 26, 2009, 06:17 PM
Put your money up, I might take a little of the action. Let's set a firm date and particular guns.

Macmac
February 26, 2009, 06:24 PM
I dont know what will happen. I didn't panic buy a thing. I am not giving anything up to anyone for anything, no matter what.

I grow almost all the food I eat now, so I won't be missing much.

Don't really care what the Admin does or doesn't do. It just won't effect me.

CoRoMo
February 26, 2009, 06:37 PM
a year from now when the Obama mania ends administration has enacted a permenant AWB, the likes of which none of us could possibly imagine how destructive it would ever have been, I bet all the pawn shops will be overflowing with good guns for sale cheap either not be legally allowed to sale firearms to civilians, or will have had all their FFLs nullified and inventory surrendered to the authorities. What do you think?

Fixed that for you.

moooose102
February 26, 2009, 09:06 PM
well, i think the prices will come back down somewhat, but not back where they were until the democrats are out of control for a year or so. so it will be a while, UNLESS the economy take a HUGE hit, and people start getting desparate.

MatthewVanitas
February 26, 2009, 10:41 PM
This buying spree can't last much longer. It will probably end at about the same time supply catches up to it. When that happens, the market will be glutted with guns and ammo like it's never been glutted before.

I think this is the best summary thus far. Even if there is a new AWB on the horizon, there is a practical limit to how many AR receivers a given person can by. 99.9999% of buyers aren't going to buy 100 lowers, so if the makers keep churning out new product while prices are high (and I certainly would), we will inevitably meet a point where market demand is sated, and unless the producers are really sharp they'll probably overshoot and produce excess inventory which will move slowly.

If I had to put cash down, I'd still bet on no new AWB. I would not, however, put cash against an EO affecting imported guns or ammo. Not necessarily predicting it, but I'd find it far less surprising than an AWB. If I were panic buying, I'd have focused far more on AKs (affordably mainly because they're mostly imported) versus AR receivers (US-made).


Amunition, however, is not going to come back down. The days of $250 for a case of 5.56 are long gone and never to return.

How do you figure? Copper and lead prices are coming down, the war in Iraq is slowing and looking to end, and Afghanistan isn't taking up near as much ammo as Iraq did. There isn't a ban on foreign ammo, and even if there were the civilian factories filling gov't contracts will probably want to keep producing 5.56 even as gov orders decrease.

And again, once the current panic-buyers get 10,000 rounds stacked in the closet, demand will drop pretty considerably.

leadcounsel
February 26, 2009, 11:21 PM
There is NOTHING in the world that will drive prices down to pre-election levels until the President and/or the Congress is replaced in elections by more pro-gun folks. The earliest that will happen will be in 2010 (some in Congress) and then again 2012 (POTUS).

Sure, if the economy gets bad people may sell a few guns they couldn't afford, but they will be sold at high market prices and they WILL be snapped up at high prices by people that can afford them. Just look at gun stores and gun sale postings here... every posting for modern guns has people fighting over it at absurd prices.

If the economy gets REALLY bad, people will 'cling' to their guns.

If the economy improves, people will still hold onto their guns.

People won't feel safe to let them go until they feel comfortable with pro-gun leaders in this nation.

The demand will continue because people still need to use ammo to shoot and people still buy guns as a hobby, as gifts, collection, or just for the heck of it.

As others said, if you waited to buy, you missed the writing on the wall. And you are dillusional if you think that this administration et al won't ban 'em... they've TOLD you that's their plan!

leadcounsel
February 26, 2009, 11:29 PM
I think this is the best summary thus far. Even if there is a new AWB on the horizon, there is a practical limit to how many AR receivers a given person can by. 99.9999% of buyers aren't going to buy 100 lowers, so if the makers keep churning out new product while prices are high (and I certainly would), we will inevitably meet a point where market demand is sated, and unless the producers are really sharp they'll probably overshoot and produce excess inventory which will move slowly.

I disagree.... many people MADE a lot of money selling pre-ban guns during the 10 year AWB. This may happen again, drawing in speculators who will actually HOPE that the ban in enacted to make a buck. Ask any gun dealer and he'll tell you that Clinton was very profitable for him. I've heard that from many gun dealers now with Obama. They hate the policies, but love the sales. We've seen a massive shortage of guns and ammo, and people will continue to buy them until their prices are out of reach. $100 for a lower; how about $200 - still selling. $300? still selling. $400.... I bet you could even sell some stripped lowers in this market for $400 in the right areas. With that profit margin (400%) they will continue to sell and there will always be a buyer in the gun market. heck just look at the price of ARs and AKs, which have nearly doubled!

MatthewVanitas
February 26, 2009, 11:52 PM
I disagree.... many people MADE a lot of money selling pre-ban guns during the 10 year AWB. This may happen again, drawing in speculators who will actually HOPE that the ban in enacted to make a buck. Ask any gun dealer and he'll tell you that Clinton was very profitable for him. I've heard that from many gun dealers now with Obama. They hate the policies, but love the sales. We've seen a massive shortage of guns and ammo, and people will continue to buy them until their prices are out of reach. $100 for a lower; how about $200 - still selling. $300? still selling. $400.... I bet you could even sell some stripped lowers in this market for $400 in the right areas. With that profit margin (400%) they will continue to sell and there will always be a buyer in the gun market. heck just look at the price of ARs and AKs, which have nearly doubled!

Right, but this is not indefinitely sustainable. There is a certain point at which even the most avaricious of speculators and the most fearful of hoarders will simply have enough.

If something shifts politically, sure that could change things one way or the other. However, the current situation cannot continue indefinitely. The manufacturers aren't running out of aluminum billets anytime soon, and will cheerfully keep churning out lowers so long as anyone will buy them. If demand drops off sharply, I'd expect the forgers to drop the wholesale prices down to a reasonable amount, and if the wholesalers can't move them at the inflated price they'll have to drop them back down to a reasonable price.

I'm not saying it will all turn around next week, but given enough months the supply can certainly satiate and even saturate demand. Plus any speculator who gets too deep into AR lowers is taking some big risks, as he could be stuck with a bunch of $250 lowers next year when CMMG is retailing lowers for $150. At the opposite extreme, ARs could be barred from transfer (CA style) and he could be stuck with a worthless stack of unsellable or illegal goods.

VegasOPM
February 27, 2009, 01:04 AM
I'm still getting good deals. I just have to look a little harder. In the past month I bought a forged, stripped AR lower for $120, an AR C-Mag with loader and pouch for $300 and 10 P-mags for $15 each- all brand new.

VonClausewitz
February 27, 2009, 06:05 AM
My shot at the development of prices (intermediate, 2-3 years):

1. Assuming that the increased demand for firearms and ammunition remains indeed sustainable within the scope of observation. Reasons may vary, from the anticipation of forseeable legislative measures, economic uncertainty, declining faith in government services...
Certainly we can observe a degree of speculative demand in some markets, especially semi-auto rifles (AR). Gun bubble anyone?

2. Assuming that the current price range for standard commodities in the market (ammo, non-custom firearms, mags...) is already well above marginal costs and competitive equilibrium levels.

3. Assuming major manufacturers will not invest in additional production capacity. Either because such investments are not prudent considering the sustainability expectations or would come too late to satisfy immediate demand.

...
The determining factor of future prices will be the rigidity of international trade of such commodities. Many suppliers from outside the US would like to pick up the slack. However, the current exchange rate is not favorable for such an enterprise and the administrative obstacles are very high (export permit, US Customs, BATFE, civil liability exposure).

So my personal glance into the crystal ball leads me to expect only a slow decrease of prices, if any, in lockstep with gradual decrease of consumer and speculative demand, or severe Obamafication.

RoboDuck
February 27, 2009, 08:11 PM
How long will it be before Obama's storm troopers start conducting house to house searches?:fire:

IndianaBoy
February 27, 2009, 09:36 PM
How long will it be before Obama's storm troopers start conducting house to house searches?

We are a long way from that.

Although given the way the ATF has handled things in the past, like Waco and Ruby Ridge.... I could certainly be wrong.

chuckusaret
February 27, 2009, 10:00 PM
How long will it be before Obama's storm troopers start conducting house to house searches? Obamanation has started the necessary legislation to form his "Strong Civilian Force" to carry out the gun search. Do you guys & gals really believe Obamanation will be allowed to take our weapons without local and national protests. I know for sure that there are many guys/gals in my club, all old military combat veterans, that will surrender their assult style weapons but bullets first. The same with their handguns, bullets first.

wasr10owner
February 27, 2009, 10:18 PM
I think guns will start coming back down in price after a while as long as they dont get banned.

MatthewVanitas
February 27, 2009, 10:33 PM
Obamanation has started the necessary legislation to form his "Strong Civilian Force" to carry out the gun search.

Do you have any actual info to back up that particular bit of tinfoil?

He plans to double the Peace Corps' budget by 2011, and expand AmeriCorps, USA Freedom Corps, VISTA, YouthBuild Program, and the Senior Corps. Plus, he proposes to form a Classroom Corps, Health Corps, Clean Energy Corps, Veterans Corps, Homeland Security Corps, Global Energy Corps, and a Green Jobs Corps. Here a corps - there a corps - everywhere a corps corps.

Which branch exactly do you expect to be trained, prepared, and willing to do house-to-house searches against armed individuals?

Can we just stick to actual facts and legitimate political analysis, as opposed to "FEMA is opening death camps to incinerate the Americans who didn't vote for Obama"?

Remember how silly the left sounded with their "GW Bu*****ler, Commander in Chimp" and "Bush is going to use the Army to install him as lifelong dictator!!!" ? Wouldn't it be awesome to be above that?

S&Wfan
February 27, 2009, 10:48 PM
Which branch exactly do you expect to be trained, prepared, and willing to do house-to-house searches against armed individuals?

I'm sure thousands upon ten thousands of German citizens said the same thing when Adolph Hitler and his party were put into power.

Although it takes an extraordinary combination of events for a truly charismatic leader to burst on the scene at just the right time of a nation's economic crisis it DOES happen.

It happened in the '30s for Germany. It could possibly happen here in America too under Obama and his rabid supporters who never, ever got involved in politics, much less got INVOLVED before. Many of them will do whatever he wants and says . . . and many believe that the white gun owner IS their problem . . .

XavierBreath
February 27, 2009, 11:32 PM
Because it's entertaining to speculate on the future with friends, I'm not wanting to shut this thread down. If we can avoid the references to nazis, facists, and such, I will avoid doing so.

Predicting future gun legislation is inherently political, and politics are usually considered off topic here.

However, as long as this thread does not turn more political than fun, I won't move to close it. If this thread turns into a political rant fest, then it will be closed.

I, for one, having participated in the gun market through the first AWB and several administrations see a leveling of prices slightly above what we would like. Isn't that always the case? While the prices are driven by fear and rumor now, that will subside, unless there is specific legislation restricting the manufacture or FFL sale of arms that were previously available.

hso
February 27, 2009, 11:40 PM
I bet all the pawn shops will be overflowing with good guns for sale cheap.

What pawn shops are you talking about? Cheap isn't the way I'd describe their prices. :neener:

crazy-mp
February 27, 2009, 11:42 PM
First of all if Washington even has a open discussion about gun control (Not some Obama lackey) there will be another gun boom, except it will be anything that shoots, all calibers of ammo and reloading equipment. I know people who are buying ammo for guns they donít even own. They think they can use it as bargaining chip or to trade some day.

Second, there are not too many pawn shops that have good deals, the only time I have been able to get a good deal at a pawn shop is when they donít know what they have. Most of the time they want MSRP for any gun even if its a Ruger 10/22 thatís 15 years old and looks like it was drug down a gravel road for its entire life.

I really do hope that all of you who are saying the market will be flooded with cheap guns and huge amounts of ammo are right, shooting shouldnít be a rich mans sport. :cool:

Art Eatman
February 28, 2009, 12:12 PM
We had a dot-com bubble and then a housing bubble, and now we have a para-military guns'n'ammo bubble.

All bubbles eventually pop. Always have, always will.

HR 45 appears to be dead in the water, sent off to sub-committee and no action is likely. Among other things, consider who filed the bill, and his personal history. No way that Pelosi and Reid want to be tied to him.

This Administration is in so much deep doo-doo with the economy that they can't stand the backlash over any anti-gun efforts by Congress. And you can sho-nuff believe that when the MSM talks about the rate of sales, Congress is well aware that people are voting with their billfolds. Per BATFE, firearms sales from 1993 to 2003 averaged around some five million per year. I've read that by the end of October, 2008, 7.8 million NICS checks had been run, and I saw a streamer on TV that November's NICS checks were about 1.25 million. That's a lot of votes.

At some point, then, the "worry group" of buyers will have spent all they can afford to spend, and the rate of sales will decline to levels which allow supplies to catch up. Just like 1968 and 1994.

jfh
February 28, 2009, 12:29 PM
I'm going to vote for Art's analysis--but with this caveat.

Politicians always will over reach, and that characteristic is exacerbated by their intelligence and cunning. Arguably, the current cabal is among the most intelligent ever to run WA--and they will rationalize their innermost urges for absolute power. With luck, 1994 will replay.

As an aside--keep in mind that the 1994 AWB was carefully crafted to provide "loopholes"--i.e., limited by model name, and with an expiration date--so that the antigunners will have an out when sentiment runs against them (see the 94 elections). Without that, I think they fear the assinations will start.

Jim H.

Prince Yamato
February 28, 2009, 12:31 PM
I think prices are nuts. I also think the demand is slowly ebbing as many of the dealers around me seem to have no trouble getting AWs in stock. The problem only arises when you want something very particular. I think some gun people have a panic fetish and the panic brought on by a possible ban is like a high for them... and some will apparently pay anything for that fix. They also "enjoy" seeing high prices.

I am not one of those people and I think we're slowly moving into the gouging phase of the "Obama Panic". There is no reason whatsoever that a WASR should retail for over $700. They are not rare and it is not that hard to have them any more. Classic Arms has WASR prices back to normal, why don't some local gunshops? Oh, right... profiteering on panic... I personally don't think WASRs will come back down below $550/600 in most areas, because people will keep up some level of panic and gun shops will feed into that. The supply will be greater than the demand, but gun dealers will tack on an extra $100, because they know they can get away with it; the fear mongers will pay the extra $100 for the pleasure of their "fix".

searcher451
February 28, 2009, 12:34 PM
I don't see prices dropping at all in the future, from any outlet: private seller, big box store, local FFL dealer, pawn shop, online outlets. Guns are the new gold; they will continue to rise, slowly and steadily in price. Take it to the bank.

Well, on second thought, don't take it there; take it to the gun safe instead.

hso
February 28, 2009, 02:32 PM
There isn't a ban on foreign ammo, and even if there were the civilian factories filling gov't contracts will probably want to keep producing 5.56 even as gov orders decrease.

The majority of production being purchased by the DoD and other fed agencies doesn't come from "civilian factories". Instead they come from ammunition plants. They are government-owned contractor operated facilites, GOCOs. They are not commercial operations in the sense of Remington or Winchester and when government demand is reduced they will reduce production and then put lines on standby ceasing production on those lines. If there is no anticipated demand, the DoD will mothball those lines. There will not be any significant excess production from the GOCO ammunition plants.

OTOH, the real commercial ammunition manufacturers, like Winchester and Remington will continue to manufacture ammunition and if they were dedicating any production to filling DoD or Fed LE orders those may get to the public as the Fed moves their order to the GOCO ammunition plants.

Will this cause a reduction in the price of ammunition? Probably, but by how much is anyone's guess.

As to firearms prices...Where's the crystal ball and ouija board? Sorry, no one knows, but the best guess I can provide is look at firearms as any other commodity and apply simple economic models. If nothing changes the number of people who want a firearm will eventually be converted to people who have a firearm and unless production is reduced there will be a gradual glut and prices will fall. If production increases (like it has) that will happen sooner.

Deltaboy
February 28, 2009, 08:55 PM
I Sure hope so finding buys today is pert near impossible. :cuss:

XavierBreath
February 28, 2009, 10:50 PM
Here's a recent article (http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/nationwide-ammunition-shortage-hits-us/) concerning the root cause of the ammunition shortage. Interesting stuff.

crazy-mp
March 1, 2009, 01:06 AM
HA HA, Man you are funny I am going to send Jay Lenno a e-mail and tell him to give you a spot, you really should have been a comedian.

The pawn shop dealers are seeing how much people will pay for an item, if they know a mini-14 will bring $750.00 do you really think they will drop the price down to $450.00 next year?:scrutiny:

MatthewVanitas
March 1, 2009, 02:36 AM
The pawn shop dealers are seeing how much people will pay for an item, if they know a mini-14 will bring $750.00 do you really think they will drop the price down to $450.00 next year?

Sigh... Right, but the question is "when is the point when people will no longer pay $750 for a Mini-14?" Nobody is arguing that sellers will suddenly start selling under market rate.

The issue is that people won't keep buying 2 EBRs a month indefinitely for the next 10 years. Either there will be a change in legislation, or the pace of buying will slow dramatically. If the pace of buying slows before the pace of production slows, or if the producers have spent good money ramping up production and would rather sell at small profit than scale back down, then the price of guns could drop dramatically.

Likewise, if folks become reassured that a new AWB is not immediately forthcoming (some notable judicial find on Heller, big reverses in 2010) they could dump a ton of AR receivers back on the market and saturate it.

The current "panic" is not indefinitely sustainable, the current high production is (for all practical purposes) indefinitely sustainable without new legislation. There is more aluminum billet and parkerising spray in the U.S. then there are potential AR-15 buyers.

toivo
March 1, 2009, 03:30 AM
Which branch exactly do you expect to be trained, prepared, and willing to do house-to-house searches against armed individuals?
I'm sure thousands upon ten thousands of German citizens said the same thing when Adolph Hitler and his party were put into power.

No, actually, they didn't. They knew exactly who it would be. It would be the same thugs they had seen in the streets for the past decade or so, beating political opponents with clubs, smashing up Jewish-owned businesses, and generally terrorizing the populace. You know, the guys with the brown shirts who became the guys with the black uniforms. Have you seen anything like that lately? I haven't.

So can we stop with all the Nazi talk?

Back to the OP... Another factor to consider is that a lot of these recent gun and ammo purchases were impulse buys by people who aren't really dedicated shooters but are afraid of unrest brought on by the economic crisis. Once they've got their AR in the closet, they're pretty much set. Also, they're unlikely to shoot up the ammo that they bought, so they will have no need to buy more. Combine that with the speculators who got in the game a little bit late and are sitting on too many guns that aren't moving, and you'll start to see prices dropping. Also bear in mind that fears of a new AWB can cut both ways; if there's a fear that there will be no grandfathering, people, especially speculators, will be dumping guns that they're afraid may be unsellable in the very near future.

If the S really does HTF the way some people are predicting, prices will be meaningless. We'll be bartering gold and gasoline for our ARs and ammo. Good luck!

politicaldookie
March 1, 2009, 11:21 AM
I think the prices of "assault" weapons and any high capacity mags that are potentially subject to regulation will maintain an inflated value for at least 4 and maybe 8 years ;)

The smart money right now is on .45's, revolvers, and rifles that have never been the subject of mainstream liberal interest. I have seen prices on the guns become quite appealing. Personally I would rather spend $600 on a Colt .45 than a Glock which is what some fruitcakes are asking. Also, look at the number of sweet Colt revolvers that are coming up for sale.

I pretty much have my SHTF stash covered. Once I have a few thousand more rounds I will focus exclusively on what I love to collect and shoot.

earlthegoat2
March 1, 2009, 12:44 PM
prices only go up on manufactured goods, never down

ammo may go down, maybe lead and copper as well.

Duke of Doubt
March 1, 2009, 01:38 PM
politicaldookie: "The smart money right now is on .45's, revolvers, and rifles that have never been the subject of mainstream liberal interest. I have seen prices on the guns become quite appealing. Personally I would rather spend $600 on a Colt .45 than a Glock which is what some fruitcakes are asking. Also, look at the number of sweet Colt revolvers that are coming up for sale. "

Exactly correct. Over the past several months I have traded away a bunch of guns which had doubled or tripled in value for no good reason, and acquired a string of ponies (vintage Colts) I never would have been able to justify acquiring, otherwise. Trading an autoloader which has tripled in value is the same as getting that vintage Colt for 2/3 off.

Duke of Doubt
March 1, 2009, 01:42 PM
earlthegoat2: "prices only go up on manufactured goods, never down"

Not at all. If you follow the prices of automobiles as a function of household income over the last century, you'll notice some interesting things. Car prices fell for decades, both in real and in nominal terms. They started rising in response to safety and environmental regulation, and hit the stratosphere in recent decades when credit got loose and anyone could finance a new car. Those days are over, and car prices have been falling so far this year.

Private airplane prices are even more interesting to follow. Pre-owned light aircraft prices are in a tailspin.

Gun prices have been doing some strange things lately, and not all gun prices have been rising. It's fascinating to me both as a hobbyist and as an analyst.

blkbrd666
March 1, 2009, 01:52 PM
I'm amused at all the bull about the US selling guns to Mexico(90% of their source according to most reports). Then I picture an AWB without a grandfather clause...all of a sudden those estimates will be real percentages. On the plus side for everyone in Texas and Arizona...you'll get to see a lot of guns passing through your area.

Ed Ames
March 1, 2009, 02:16 PM
A year ago everyone was saying "Gas is over $4 and it'll never go down ever again!"

dbarile
March 1, 2009, 02:43 PM
I'll set my calendar. A year from now, we can compare prices on the same model guns and then we shall see.

Perhaps I'll track the price of AR-15 & WASR's between now and then.

deano186
March 1, 2009, 09:35 PM
When you think gun and ammo prices are going to come down you forget that the value of money is going to be severely watered down by the massive spending programs Obama has initiated.

While they have failed to stabilize the credit markets and while they have destroyed confidence and value in the stock market, the inflation that must result from greatly increasing the effective money supply (in mostly non-productive ways) may well make ammo the only viable currency of the future.

qwert65
March 1, 2009, 09:45 PM
While I want prices to go down as much as anyone, I'd rather it not be bc ppl are selling thier guns. We need as many gun owners as possible

crazy-mp
March 1, 2009, 11:37 PM
when is the point when people will no longer pay $750 for a Mini-14?"

I have been going to gun shows for the past 10 years or so, since november I have never seen as many people there, or as many people buying. I have a feeling there are more people wanting than getting. Mostly because what they want is not there, someone already bought it, if there was a gun you really wanted and you had the money to buy it and only one person had it wouldnt you pay more just so you could have it? Just like the AR deal right now, people that have them can put 200-350 more than they paid 6 months ago on one and sell it before noon at almost any gun show.

Deepskyy
March 2, 2009, 01:32 AM
There is some very strange and scary things on the international news wires right now, and some very ugly economic figures starting to pop up. We may be looking at hyperinflation in the next half year to year, which could cause serious civil unrest. No, neither ammo nor firearms are going down anytime soon.

leadcounsel
March 2, 2009, 11:34 AM
Anyone that thinks prices will be down in a year, PM me what you're selling now and maybe you can make a profit only to buy it more cheaply next year!

Prince Yamato
March 2, 2009, 12:52 PM
I still think some of the inflation is controlled by distributors and dealers. How the hell can people be running low on AKs? WASRs are produced in Romania. If you tell the Romanians, "we expect a huge demand, could you please ramp up production, you'll make a lot of money," I'm 90% sure that they'll hire our for more employees and make more guns. There's also a couple other foreign companies that could jump on this bandwagon.

Next, ARs... how many AR-15 manufacturers are there in this country? Quite a lot. How hard is it to make an AR receiver? You basically just pour a mold (In 5 minutes there will be someone to come along and tell me that it is super-involved). If it's harder than that, it's still not rocket science. The little parts (grips, etc.) for the gun are in abundant supply. Barrels... I know Green Mountain is the main producer, but you're telling me that nobody else produces AR-15 barrels? Getting specific models I could see as being difficult, but getting a hum-drum set-up? Come on...

Honestly, I think there is collusion here to keep prices high for as long as possible. If this happened in any other field ("OMG! They're going to ban milk! Now it's $15/gallon!) nobody would put up with it. In the world of guns, there seems to be a high percentage of masochists who like to see people struggle financially to own weapons.

hso
March 2, 2009, 01:29 PM
The little parts (grips, etc.) for the gun are in abundant supply. Barrels... I know Green Mountain is the main producer, but you're telling me that nobody else produces AR-15 barrels? Getting specific models I could see as being difficult, but getting a hum-drum set-up? Come on...

Ok, you're wrong.

Just look at the idea of making more receivers. How many investment casting or hot forging molds/forms are there? They each cost thousands of dollars to make and then they require hundreds of thousands of dollars in equipment to use. How many companies want to invest in these new molds/dies and the equipment to make them?

But, let's look at he real bottleneck.The choke point for AR production is barrels, bolt carriers and barrel extensions. All the companies that make ARs get these parts from one, two or three manufacturers in the US. Production can be ramped up only so far so fast and then you have all the production equipment in use at a facility. "Buy more", you say? "Put it where", is the response. These businesses don't have a lot of excess production capacity in place and they don't have bigger facilities than needed. Having idle equipment/personnel/space is a quick way to go out of business.

"Buy more". With what? The manufacturers have to get credit to purchase the equipment and we're all aware of the current "credit crunch". Who's going to loan the money?

"Build more". With who? Where are the skilled workers to run the CNCs, heat treating furnaces, coating equipment, etc. that the manufacturers can't purchase with the current credit crunch in full swing. Where would they put them? In the buildings they don't own with the supervisors they don't have? And how do you handle all that even if you can get the credit for the equipment and facilities?

Do you just throw money at the problem and proceed with no business plan? What's the point if you turn your profits into equipment and facilities and personnel you won't need in 18 months when the demand is met? Feed the demand and then go out of business because you blew all your money meeting a short term demand?

No, it ain't "that easy".

Doublestar was in a position to pretty much move fast since their business plan was to add equipment, staff and facilities within the next 3 years as they grew. They just advanced their plan by 3 years and got to work.

wally
March 2, 2009, 01:49 PM
prices only go up on manufactured goods, never down

Priced an HD TV or Computer lately compared to say a couple of years ago?


At todays prices, the best advice, from another thread was:

Pile your money on the table, if you'd rather it be an AR (or whatever) than a pile of money, buy it. Maybe you could buy it cheaper next year, or maybe it'd cost even more, or you might not be able to buy it at all.

--wally.

MisterMike
March 2, 2009, 02:14 PM
Economic predictions--even from those who make a living at such things--are notoriously unreliable.

However, my sense is that price swings initiated by fear of impending legislation tend to be pretty severe. It's a prime example of a herd mentality--maybe the generalized fear is based on comon sense, but it feeds on itself, creating panic beyond what is justified. Once most people regain their composure, the attempts to return to a state of equilibrium; if you can figure out the timing of the trough, you may get some good deals.

Though its genesis was not rooted in fear over impending legislation, the Beanie Babe thing of a few years ago illustrated this type of phenomenon pretty well--these little stuffed animals, with MSRPs around $5.00, sometimes fetched $100 or more. This rush to buy was fueled by the perceived rarity of the "limited" production of these little stuffed animals, and some resellers made a bundle of money. Ultimately demand collapsed and they became pretty much worthless.

While guns are a more expensive product, the same cycle is likely to be seen here. If people find, at some point, that they have bought more guns than they really need--and especially if their fears about gun control legislation do not come to pass--then it's inevitable that prices will fall.

CentralTexas
March 2, 2009, 04:05 PM
On....

earlthegoat2
March 2, 2009, 06:06 PM
all in the eye of the beholder and how you interpret the facts. all things may be true.

John Wayne
March 2, 2009, 06:21 PM
Well, I stopped by a few local pawn shops the other day just to see how prices were...at two (notoriously high even several years ago) pawn shops, I saw:

-A $479 Ruger LCP

-An $850 WASR-10

And my personal favorite, a $1450 Bushmaster A2, right next to a $1375 DPMS AR-10!



I inquired as to the barrel length of one of the other AR's in the case and was told that "hit cain't be no sixteen eenches, my fanger is longer'n that rat there." He was referring, of course, to the portion of the barrel visible extending from the handguard. Priceless.

This last store also had a strict "no discounts on assault rifles" policy. I was going to inquire as to why their ARs only had a 2-position safety selector, but given the response to my last question, I thought it better to walk out.

Big Bill
March 2, 2009, 06:29 PM
My gunstore has Ruger LCPs for $319. They had 10 last I asked.

f4t9r
March 2, 2009, 06:50 PM
The only deals I see upcomming are the people that have to sell something to keep going. Other then that I do not see prices dropping.

rscalzo
March 2, 2009, 07:05 PM
but this is not indefinitely sustainable

Sounds familiar. Housing bubble. tech bubble. Firearms manufacturers are not doing that well and their stock is certainly not rising. Both publically held companies have seen their stock drop significantly. Sig had layoffs a few months back in an effort to cut costs. Firearms are a disposible income item. When the bubble breaks those that paid list plus fifty percent are going to be pissed. Just like those that bought the $75.00 thirty round AR15 magazines only to watch the pricing drop like a stone. One of the largest gun dealer up here cut the pay rate of the staff ten percent to avoid layoffs. I don't see many running out to grab anything available regardless of price. What i do see is a lot of people getting rid of a portion of their collections to cover the everyday cost ogf living.

SaMx
March 2, 2009, 07:17 PM
I would put money on gun prices going down at least somewhat, when the panic subsides. I kind of am, because I'm putting off purchases of firearms that I don't really need.

jcwit
March 2, 2009, 07:27 PM
With the economy tanking and people being laid-off and more lay-off coming I can see many many guns, jewlery, tools, and more being available at the pawn shops in the very near future.

We have news reports about the pawn shops about every other week here.

Panic buying for ammo is one thing, needing money for bread and milk is entirely different. There's talk of our state cutting back on unemployment payments for lack of funds.

Don't look good.

ZombiesAhead
March 3, 2009, 02:14 AM
Who knows? If people get desperate enough due to the economy continuing to decline, they may decide it's more important to eat NOW than to save guns for potential use LATER.

OTOH, if the economy does not tank much worse than predicted and people still have enough money to eat, I can see people hanging onto their panic buys and possibly purchasing more.

Another opinion is that people may have fulfilled their panic buying impulses and come to the realization they have more than they need, in which case they may sell some firearms, bringing the market back to a reasonable baseline but still hoarding enough that we don't see any dramatic price drop.

I have to gloat because I only became interested in firearms a few years ago. I bought like crazy from 2004 until Spring 2008 when I decided I had "enough" guns and ammunition...and what do you know? As soon as my shopping spree was over people went nuts, I sold a few firearms at profit, and I'm left with everything I could possibly need for the next 5-10 years. : )

crazy-mp
March 3, 2009, 08:11 PM
given the response to my last question, I thought it better to walk out

I think I have been to that gun store too

Javelin
March 3, 2009, 08:20 PM
Guns will all be back to 1970s pricing in a year.

Happy?

;)

A/C Guy
March 5, 2009, 01:17 PM
Firearms manufacturers are not doing that well and their stock is certainly not rising. Both publically held companies have seen their stock drop significantly.Boy are you wrong!!

Ruger stock and Smith & Wesson stock rose 50% last week. Most manufacturers had a record 4th quarter with backorders equal to a full quarter's sales.

BENELLIMONTE
March 5, 2009, 03:31 PM
Unfortunately I believe that prices on anything related to firearms i.e guns, powder, bullets, brass will all be higher due to "Nobamas" implementation of some sort of weapons ban or limit on gun related items purchased per year.:uhoh:

dbarile
March 5, 2009, 03:44 PM
I can see prices easing off IF the current economic woes continue. No sign of that changing yet. AND if the current admin makes no more moves or comments about a ban. Some will (and have) be force to part with the AKs and ARs at less than they paid for them. I only hope a shooter gets them before the pawn shop.

Last week I saw some sign of the panic ease off locally. There were actually several AK types sitting on the shelves locally that were beginning to accumulate dust. I even had visions of Yugo 7.62x39 at less that 300 a case.

Then Holder shot his mouth off and the couple AK's and other assorted East Block shooters vanished from the local shelves. Yes, Pelosi & Reid quashed it, but do you really believe them? Yes, it is only my observations, but it allowed classic arms to post a warning on their web site. Care to guess about their phone line status?

I'm not holding out any hope that we will get through the year without further attacks on the 2A. I only have to decide if I wish to wait to buy another AR.

22-rimfire
March 5, 2009, 05:30 PM
I don't expect guns to be cheap. Only folks that are distressed and need quick money will drop prices into the "cheap" catagory.

Wait until inflation starts taking hold in a year or so. Today's prices even at retail will be cheap. You'll see 20% increases in prices on new guns and used gun prices follow right along with the trend.

MatthewVanitas
March 5, 2009, 06:18 PM
I don't expect guns to be cheap. Only folks that are distressed and need quick money will drop prices into the "cheap" catagory.

Wait until inflation starts taking hold in a year or so. Today's prices even at retail will be cheap. You'll see 20% increases in prices on new guns and used gun prices follow right along with the trend.

Not to nitpick, but inflation doesn't inherently make things more expensive. It might make them more expensive relative to your savings, but inflated prices still need to be measured in relative terms.

Look at it this way, when Colt 1911s cost $20 brand-new 90 years ago, that didn't mean they were "cheap", as that was a ton of money back then. Plenty of guns are cheaper in relative terms than they used to be, with a Marlin 60 .22LR representing less than 20 hours of even minimum-wage labour.

And further, while we're crystal-balling, there have been concerns about deflation in the current economy. So we're really pushing the boundaries of speculation here.

I'm feeling a bit too lazy to organise it myself, but I think we should just cut out all the hand-wringing, put our money where our mouths are, and have a "gentlemen's bet" thread with under/overs for stripped AR-15 receiver prices for Nov 5 2010, wherin losers have to donate to a political cause chosen by the winner. I vote that if the pessimists lose they have to donate to NPR; I agree that their 2A coverage is left-leaning, but overall it's an awesome source for news and music, and it's about the only radio I listen to besides internet streaming radio stations.

mcdonl
March 5, 2009, 06:22 PM
One thing different betweem October and today... there are a LOT more used guns available. Despite the buying craze, people are desperate.

Leroy

orionengnr
March 5, 2009, 11:04 PM
I'm not saying it will all turn around next week, but given enough months the supply can certainly satiate and even saturate demand.

Well, with regard to ammo and components, I'm going to say that this prediction is going down in flames.

Sharps-shooter
March 5, 2009, 11:32 PM
I don't necessarily think they will be much cheaper than now, but I think more and more people will sell their gun or guns to make ends meet, and that used guns will be widely available. I'm already starting to see it some.

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