Primers, Powder, Bullets and an Observation


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Jmurman
May 1, 2009, 04:48 PM
When Clintonm was first elected President I ran the hunting and fishing section of a large Sporting Goods store in Oregon.

We experienced the exact same situation as what we are experiencing now. Large quantities of ammo disappeared, then powder, primers and bullets.

It took a few months for things to settle out, that is for most guys to be satiated with ammo and components. We were very well stocked up at that point in time for sure...just like we are now.

I would expect to see things start to level out in the next few months. I'm already starting to see some availability of powder online and some guys I talk to are snagging some ammo.

Just my .02

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matrem
May 1, 2009, 05:23 PM
I remember those early 90s shortages.With talk of primer shelf life etc. I think,and certainly hope that this will have the same eventual outcome.

P51D
May 1, 2009, 10:15 PM
It's great to hear from a couple of people like Jmurman and Matrem, who have been through something similar to this before, and who still can see the glass as half full. :cool: Also sounds like Jmurman was in a VERY good position to see what was going on (being in the business), and to see how the situation resolved itself, even if that happened slowly.

P51D

bullseye308
May 1, 2009, 11:02 PM
Not to knock the wind from your sail, but the biggest problem I see is that lots of us remember the last time and are stocking up heavy. Add to that the new loaders that are trying to buy initial qty just to start loading, and add in a few profit mongers that see a profit margin no stocks will ever reach and buy large qty for resale at huge profits.
Then you have all these threads about how(insert favorite rumor) is happening and many of us buy a little more "just in case", or more folks (try to)get started reloading because they can't find factory ammo anywhere.
I think it will be more than a few months, but it will either level off by Christmas, or it won't get better for a long time.

ants
May 1, 2009, 11:16 PM
I'll bet neither Clinton nor Obama even know what a primer is. Nor anyone on their respective White House staffs. I bet we cause these 'shortages' entirely ourselves. I wouldn't be surprised to find that our presidents are somewhat aware of sales statistics on guns, and maybe they even hear about commercial ammo sales once in a while, but very likely they don't even know the first thing about the reloading components market. Nor do they hire anyone on the White House staff who knows.

How many times do you think our President even handled live ammo? Or opened up a new box of rifle cartridges. Or even knows one caliber from another. I expect that he only knows the terms "High Powered Rifle" and certainly "Cop Killer Bullet". And of course the obligatory "Assault Weapon". Bet he doesn't even know what a shroud is.

But this is all conjecture on my part. You may dismiss it if you want.

P51D
May 1, 2009, 11:55 PM
Bullseye308, I think you've summed it up pretty accurately. Ants did as well (i.e., we're largely creating this situation ourselves). And that's exactly why no wind has been knocked out of my sails. I'm pretty sure things will migrate back to "normal"; it's just a question of how long that will take. And yes, it may take a while.

One thing that I've thought about: For those who are not NRA members, $35.00 will get you an annual membership (and I think I saw a $25.00 new member special going on). $35.00 is about the cost of buying another 1000 primers. And IMHO, when it comes to making sure you will have ammo and guns to use in your future, it will do more good. (Current and life members can send in a little extra as well; I think I'm going to do that).

As Ants says, those now in the White House may well not know what a primer is. But I GUARANTEE you they know what the NRA is, how many members strong it is, and what membership trends are doing. Just something to think about.


P51D
NRA Life Member

Wildyams
May 2, 2009, 12:52 AM
I think.. I picked a bad time to get into reloading. I'm not one of the people who decided to start because of the ammo shortage, I've always wanted to do it, but never had a gun to reload ammo for. I bought my first pistol a couple weeks ago along with a reloading press. Sadly I think they both might be sitting unused for awhile. Luckly I work at a sporting goods store, so when I see primers come in I can be the first one to grab some.

I did take someones advice about joining the NRA last week, I think they had a deal that was 2 years for $35

gvnwst
May 2, 2009, 01:01 AM
I think.. I picked a bad time to get into reloading. I'm not one of the people who decided to start because of the ammo shortage, I've always wanted to do it, but never had a gun to reload ammo for. I bought my first pistol a couple weeks ago along with a reloading press.

I did the same thing, but i am just now getting into competitive rifle shooting, and match ammo was too expensive, so i decided to grab some stuff....and now i can only find some of the components. But enough that i no longer have any more money to spend on it. (just picked up $200 worth of powder and bullets today)

mallc
May 2, 2009, 09:00 AM
that only a very small few of us are causing the shortage. I'm betting a ton-o-ammo and supplies are going into Mexico to fuel the drug wars and somebody is making a pocket full of cash. I have heard that at least two local suppliers of store bought .223 have moved it off of the shelves and you have to ask a clerk for it. And...the clerks only speak English.

Sorry for adding this dimension to this thread and it probably belongs in the Activisim forum; but I have lots of powder but can't get primers for my customers. I only have back-orders in que at one place, I've offered to pre-pay, and I've been waiting for 10 weeks. I can't see any way that factories can be running at full production and I can't get even one case of primers.

Scott

MMCSRET
May 2, 2009, 09:18 AM
I first bought primers and powder in 1956. The first time I got caught short was in the 90's. Never again, since then I have kept myself supplied sufficient for 3 years at a rate of 10,000 round a year. When I die my nephews will each have supplies for 10,000 rounds. I have bullet molds for every caliber gun I own, rifle, handgun. and shotgun. NEVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hoarding, NO!! just continuously well stocked.

Marlin 45 carbine
May 2, 2009, 09:34 AM
I got caught short of sp primers and low on lr's.
when the supply 'normalizes' I'm going to wrap tightly and stash a K of each I use, sp, lp and lr.
nephews have been asking for .380acp, 9mm Para and .357 Mag all sp primers I did find a decent buy on 1K sp mag which can be used for all 3.
doesn't seem to be a powder shortage hereabouts but the price went up (gouging IMO)
jacketed slugs are shortage of mostly pistol.

Jmurman
May 2, 2009, 09:45 AM
"Not to knock the wind from your sail, but the biggest problem I see is that lots of us remember the last time and are stocking up heavy. "

Yeah and those of us that saw this coming have ALREADY stocked up. There are a few things that I am short on, but not much.

Yes I learned the lesson very well from a few years ago.

redneck2
May 2, 2009, 10:52 AM
I know two local dealers that have 100,000 and 150,000 ordered. A year ago, they wouldn't have sold 10k a month.

We are creating the shortage.

mgkdrgn
May 2, 2009, 11:04 AM
I know two local dealers that have 100,000 and 150,000 ordered. A year ago, they wouldn't have sold 10k a month.

We are creating the shortage.

Powder Valley says they have 50 MILLION primers on backorder.

rdhood
May 2, 2009, 11:20 AM
I know two local dealers that have 100,000 and 150,000 ordered. A year ago, they wouldn't have sold 10k a month.

We are creating the shortage.

When I couldn't purchase online, I went to my local dealer. Thus, there appears to be HUGE demand in both locations. If I could get my Powder Valley order in, then I wouldn't make requests of my local dealer.

50million primers is pretty significant. Thats about 5000 orders of 10k each. I am assuming that the typical shooter orders about 10k at a time. If there are a million regular shooters in the us, thats about 5% of the shooting population. If 10 million regular shooters, that is .5% of the shooting population.

Also consider, thought, that real demand might be something significantly less than outstanding orders. I suspect that many of those who have a 10k order in at Powder Valley also have one in at Midway, and are also bugging their local shops. Perceived demand is some unknown multiple of real demand. If Midway shipped 50 million primers tomorrow, how many of those 50 million backordered at Powder Valley would be canceled?

moosehunt
May 2, 2009, 06:08 PM
There is more to this than just high consumer demand and/or usage, and there isn't much hoarding actually going on because there is nothing to hoard. I'm not Powder Valley or Midway, but I am a dealer, and I can't get most powders (a few less common types, yes), bullet supply is VERY limited, and primers are basically non-existant. This is from the distributors, and I'm not just talking about 1 or 2. The powder and primer stream has been basically empty for well over 3 months. First, it was the more common powders, but that soon expanded. First, it was small rifle primers, but soon encompassed all primers (except shotgun). Then, the more popular bullets started drying up. Many of you may be aware that brass of many cartridges is drying up. Production to alleviate these shortages is NOT taking place. CCI had a big layoff a month or so ago. Hello? Hodgden sent a letter to distributors stating that they would produce only 1# containers of both Hodgden and IMR for at least 6-9 months. That makes no sense.
It was said that Obama has no idea what a primer is--most likely true, but he has people under him that sure do, and they realize that if the populace can't shoot their firearms, they are essentially disarmed, goal accomplished, relatively quietly. Now, the NRA (I'm a life member, proud of it) becomes a non-threat to them and the people can be completely controlled. They realized that even among non-gunowners, there was a fair amount of resistance to firearm controls, especially when it went to disarming. By taking the approach of illiminating ammo availability quietly, they are accomplishing their objective with very little "stirring of the pot". The only ones even aware of this situation are dealers, reloaders, and those who shoot abundantly, and indeed, it's only the reloaders that shoot and reload a lot. That group of people, folks, is very small, and to everyone else, it is a non-issue. That is why it is working so well.

psyop
May 2, 2009, 07:07 PM
Moosehunt

Precisely

tactikel
May 2, 2009, 09:32 PM
Well said Moosehunt! I am really worried about the future of civilian shooting sports.:mad:

docsleepy
May 2, 2009, 11:28 PM
Well, I dunno about this.
Prior to November 4th I never owned a gun in my life.
Now I have a small arsenal.
A month ago I decided to learn how to reload....$1.50 each for match .223 ammo is a bit much.....
A month later and I have my runout down and my accuracy up. Shot 0.5 MOA today at 100 yards....finally getting consistency.

Today spent several hours showing a young doctor how to shoot handgun, rifle, shotgun -- dollars to donuts she'll buy at least ONE. She was robbed once.

If a zillion new people like me and her are getting firearms (did I mention my concealed permit FINALLY arrived, 2 weeks over the statuory limit here in Florida, and my wife's STILL hasn't arrived?) and the reason everything is short is because there are several MILLION new gun owners....

then I would say that the populace has been ARMED TO THE HILT, not disarmed at all!

Mr. Obama has sold more handguns, primers, rifles, scopes, presses, than any other person in the history of the world!

mp43sniper
May 2, 2009, 11:55 PM
They could stop all production tomorrow, for good, and lots of people would be so armed up that we'd make Red Dawn look like a children's flick on the Disney channel. I doubt the ptb see this as a solution to our armed society. It would be a good way to do it, but they'd have to somehow eliminate what's already out there first.

Every dealer I know talks like Moosehunt, yet has new stock in each week when I'm there. Not a lot, and not the same stuff each time, but new items are on the shelf. If every dealer is ordering the same items it's not hard to see why they can't get them. CCI hired back the employees too, that has been discussed here and other places for those that choose not to ignore that fact.

There's nothing special going on it's just the silly season after the election.

Craig

editingfx
May 3, 2009, 07:15 AM
+1 on doc & sniper

My experience echos doc's, just make it handguns, and up the round count (like 700+/month). And yeah, I've got primers on order.... 35,000 primers. As rdhood said, it doesn't take a majority (not even close) of the shooting population to create HUGE component backorders. In my case, I decided to create my own "stockpile" of powder & primers, primarily as a hedge against price increases due to demand. What I ordered will last me for at least 3 years before I might "top off" with an order of maybe 20K.

And I just started shooting!

Oh yeah, 2 wars going on as well....

Simple supply & demand, my friends. Nothing sinister. But I bet there's partying going on in the membership department at the NRA.

Ky Larry
May 3, 2009, 08:47 AM
I talked to a nice lady at Gilberts Gun Shop in Frankfort, Ky yesterday. She's been in the business for 30 years and said the same thing happened when Clinton was elected. I think we have a lot more people in the shooting sports today so demand is higher. Just my $0.02 worth.

Walkalong
May 3, 2009, 10:10 AM
the same thing happened when Clinton was elected.Yep, just not as bad.

ants
May 4, 2009, 12:05 AM
I remember that, Walkalong. Same thing, just not as severe.

Funny thing: When Democrats are elected, there is a run on shooting products and prices go up. But when a Republican is elected, the opposite doesn't happen. It would appear to be entirely our own behavior based on perceived political fears. On the other hand, the Clinton fears of a gun ban were well founded, weren't they?



Quiet note:
To those who think Obama is "taking the approach of eliminating ammo availability quietly" I would ask just exactly how he is doing that without the ammo manufacturers assistance? Or do you believe the ammo manufacturers are now quietly slipping into Obama's bed? And just why would they do that?

spartywrx
May 4, 2009, 07:02 PM
When Clinton was elected, I was 6.

Jmurman
May 4, 2009, 07:09 PM
The real differences between now and the Clintonista era is the economy and his ruling by "polls."

BO and his crew don't care about the publics opinion unless it has to do with getting their agenda implemented. (which is what most politics are about anyway)

Personally I feel that this time around is more dangerous. We've had a major attack against our country and our economy is in tatters. It wouldn't be too hard to use another 'crisis' to make some sort of wholesale changes...I'm thinking about Mexico and a treaty to override the US Constitution.

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