price drop in ammo or rifles???


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nismofun
June 6, 2009, 04:24 PM
I'm trying to figure out the best way to spend some cash. Buy ammo, some for the firearms I currently own and some for the one I plan on buying--ar15. Or do I buy the ar15 now and wait down the road to fill my ammo needs.

So the general question is which, if either of them, will likely fall back down to reasonable prices?

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wally
June 6, 2009, 07:10 PM
Might be a good time to wait. At todays gun show ammo was plentiful but expensive and not moving much, at past shows it was as expensive and selling very briskly, first slow down I've noticed since the election started the frenzy.

Gun prices are starting to waver, I saw the Colt LEO M4 Carbine (6920 if I recall correctly) for $1200-1250, two weeks ago they were $1400-1500, Romanian AKs could be found under $500 (still 25% higher than pre election) at a couple of places, but a lot of overpriced (compared to pre election prices) stuff remains on the tables. At least they are not selling now like they were a last month.

--wally.

TheWarhammer
June 6, 2009, 07:19 PM
I agree. Now is not the time to buy the either gun or the ammo. Just sit toght and wait for reason to return to the shooting world. At the last gun show here in DFW (two weeks ago) several of the guys at the tables told me that they were having the worst sales they had ever experienced. Nobody was buying anything! I think the buying public has either finally gotten enough guns and ammo or just finally gotten their fill of price gouging. My money is on the latter.

Acera
June 6, 2009, 08:00 PM
wally I saw the same thing today at the GRB show also. You could find NIB M-4 style rifles for less than $1K. I also noticed that Colt and thought it was a good deal. There was a Colt rifle, in AWB ban configuration for about $1150, that I thought was not bad.

The only thing I did not see were any of the new Rugers. I was hoping someone had gotten them in. SIGs were everywhere and there were plenty of spaces to sit and do your paperwork if you were buying, unlike a month or so ago.

Someone had a S&W in a MagPul option that was reasonable, it might have been AJC.

If interested in buying, I would wait, now that stock is back, and the high prices are not getting the buyers that they were in the recent past. I would expect that we have crested the wave, and prices will begin to fall as sellers want to move inventory.

There seemed to be less of the first time at a gun show, deer in the headlights type looks out there today.

SpeedAKL
June 6, 2009, 08:35 PM
I'd wait for a bit, thing seem to be slowing down and short of any new government action prices should be on the decline....

223lover
June 6, 2009, 09:14 PM
I actually was going to start a new thread on this topic but since we are all here, has anyone else noticed that .223 ammo is starting to show up on the web again? Although the prices, even for Lake City are creeping up. About a nickel a month. In the East, a decent price was .38 cents, then it went to
.42, .48 and now .53 cents a round. Of course you can get all the Black Hills you want but at those prices who can afford to plink? Rock River and DPMS lowers are starting to show up too, but at $200 a pop. Of course the lower building kits are scarce but could the worst be over? As a side note, have you all known that PMC is made in Korea? That sucks.

nismofun
June 6, 2009, 09:50 PM
That's what I'm hoping...that the worst is over. I keep thinking back and the should've could've would've of it all, but I'm looking at getting a cmmg m4le at under 800 out the door. Seems a fair price. But if I don't get it, no worries.

But more to the crux, I think that the fear and scare buying is slowing down, and that demand is falling, and supply will catch up. But of course it'll take a while for the dealers/suppliers to realize what they were able to charge will no longer be valid. And they could hold off with all their profits from previous sales hoping that something else will happen (or the threat/fear of it happening) to keep prices artificially inflated.

jonnyc
June 6, 2009, 10:15 PM
Saw lots of ammo and "black" guns today at a PA show, but the prices were absolutely ridiculous. All I got was a pound of powder. Not a single primer in the place. I hope market forces return to sanity and I can buy some stuff again.

Ignition Override
June 7, 2009, 02:25 AM
A quite knowledgeable friend and co-worker, who still shoots ARs with a military reserve rifle team in competitions and follows the trends, feels that the prices have already peaked, as so many companies manufacture them and the buyers' panic is cooling off.

Silverado6x6
June 7, 2009, 02:44 AM
I also say wait, the market is becoming saturated, unless aliens invade I would say in about 2-3 months there will be ample supplies of ammo and components back on the shelves, and personally I think next winter many people will gladly sacrifice their frenzy bought hardware at giveaway prices, so be prepared with cash in hand, both to weather the next winter and to possibly get some grand slam deals.

kwelz
June 7, 2009, 02:48 AM
Ammo is still high in my area but Rifles are coming back down. The ship I frequent the most got in a huge RRA shipment last week and the guns are back within $50 or so of Pre-Election prices.

Ignition Override
June 7, 2009, 04:36 AM
Silverado's description appears to be accurate and when people realize that they are not going to use vast numbers of 'AK's and ARs etc, the prices will slide downwards.
Gunbroker already has multiple pages for each of several popular semi-auto carbines (4 pages+ for over a year on Mini 14s alone...).

At least a few people in gun stores who were interviewed by newspaper reporters weeks after the election were not able to state a personal reason as to why they bought a rifle with a high capacity magazine.
For example "I'm just afraid of what Obama is gonna do...".

Ohio Gun Guy
June 7, 2009, 07:26 AM
You might jump in now. The problem is, no one owns a crystal ball. I believe that no matter how much & how long a buying spree we all have been on, if there is more serious talk of ammunition bans, AWB bans, etc. it will all happen again.

There is a lul in the storm, but it could be the eye; Or the calm before the real storm of government looming on the horizon.

Or prices may level out, the talk of bans goes away, and the NRA wins the Chicago incorporation case..........:)

Orlando
June 7, 2009, 07:29 AM
Prices seem to be dropping if you look hard enough. Just saw PMC .223 1000rds for $349.00 at a local dealer

punkndisorderly
June 7, 2009, 10:24 AM
Ammo seems to be showing up on shelves down here in about the same order it disappeared in. First to disappear was .223/5.56, followed by 9mm, .38/.357, .45, .40, and .22lr. I see .223 quite frequently now and 9mm is starting to show up. Ammo shelves are still pretty bare, but you're more likely to see it at least.

AR's are showing up most places again.

It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the next 6-12 months. All it would take is for the Bro-bot in Washington to say a few words and things will go back to the way they were in November/December.

I have a feeling some shops and dealers are really going to get screwed in the next 12 months. If ammo prices drop, there will be more than a few that will be stuck with ammo they purchased for more than people want to pay and have a lot of former customers that won't go back due to the scalping and other BS. It only takes one bad experience to lose a customer for life. Were you a BMW dealer, which customer would you rather have, the retiree who buys his one and only BMW who will never buy another or the guy who comes in every 2-5 years like clockwork, comes to you for all his service, and sends all his buddies to you? A lot of gun shops have screwed over life long customers to sheer the many newbies out there.

freakshow10mm
June 7, 2009, 10:30 AM
Gun prices are dropping fast. CDNN is running specials on AR15s. Give ammo about another month or two before it settle down and prices drop. I've noticed some manufacturers like myself haven't raised prices through this whole deal.

Lone_Gunman
June 7, 2009, 12:50 PM
As soon as the socialist take over of the auto industry is complete, Obama will have more time to spend on the gun issue.

I expect within the next few months, someone in his administration will slip up and start talking about an AWB... and prices will shoot back up.

wally
June 7, 2009, 04:17 PM
I expect within the next few months, someone in his administration will slip up and start talking about an AWB... and prices will shoot back up.

Certainly a concern, and as Nicholas Bohr said: "Prediction is always difficult, especially of the future". But its wise to be aware of short term trends and act accordingly where possible.

My big fear right now is inflation with all the money being printed for bailouts. We are debt free and proud of it, but at some point it may be wise to max out the credit to buy things that hold actual value and pay it off with inflated dollars.

But as far as guns and ammo goes, I figured McCain was toast in October, and spent every penny I could spare on guns that I wanted. I stocked up on ammo and reloading components when oil hit $70 a barrel the first time, and haven't bought any ammo but .22LR and shotshells since the election, except I did order six cases from Sportsmans Guide the last two weeks of October, figuring things would get crazy soon. The last of it finally arrived two weeks ago. To their credit they honored the ordered price and didn't charge my credit card until it was shipped. $208 for 1000 7.62x39 and $230 for 1000 5.56 sure didn't look as good back then as it does now!

--wally.

Ed Ames
June 7, 2009, 04:23 PM
The price of 500rds .223 at a local store has gone down 5% in the last 2 weeks.

jad0110
June 7, 2009, 04:37 PM
Well, if Del-Ton has an AR to your liking, you could get one now. They are the only maker of AR-types that I'm aware of that did NOT raise their prices, only their waiting time. And their quality seems to rank right up there with the other well-known makes such as Bushmaster, DMPS, Rock River Arms and Stag.

I love my Del-Ton midlength so far!

freakshow10mm
June 7, 2009, 07:11 PM
Don't get me started with Del Ton. I still have 65 LPKs on back order from November and about another $5,000 worth of AR parts.

RugerSAFan
June 9, 2009, 09:40 AM
Two weeks ago on-line dealer had Colt 6920 for $1499 (if I recall correctly). Today its $1350. Day before election $1250.

nismofun
June 9, 2009, 09:49 AM
Yep. Looks like I'll be waiting a bit longer for the ar/ammo. However, that leaves plenty of room for rimfire/accessories.

Frankl03
June 9, 2009, 09:51 AM
I think prices are coming down steadily. Here is an ad from Ar15.com to show the point.

These are some good prices. CDNN had the CMMG M4LE for sale for $899.

I have no monetary interest just think these are good prices.

************************************************************
I have the following AR15 rifles in stock:

Stag Arms model 2T with quad rail Arms 40L rear flip sight, collapsible buttstock and side sling swivel:


$1020 Shipped


Smith & Wesson M&P M4 Barrel with gas block:


$925 shipped


CMMG Model M4LE with M4 barrel and Pro-Mag rear flip sight and single point sling:


$795 shipped


Call or email with any questions.

Thanks!
Krista
309-534-8175
sales@rbprecision.com
*************************************************************

rangerruck
June 9, 2009, 10:28 AM
you do neither. I spend a pretty good bit of time with dealers in the Houston area. Here is what I am seeing; ak's are saturating the market across america right now, and the price of various ak's is coming down. Saigas are now back in the sane range. 330 to 360 for the various models, and 12 gauges are coming in under or right at 500. Ar's have peaked, and orders are now being filled as they come in, instead of being backlogged. They are still a bit high, but just ready to start coming down, right now. Ammo still has a prob, but it is not on our side, it is wholesaler cost, at the intitial purchase. that went way up, and then retail down the line went up slowly but surely. Now then, the initial cost will start going down; back to where it was 2 years ago? proly not, but I myself am guessing a 50% drop off the front end. So I could see, in about 6 months from now, , the cost of ammo starting to drop, across the board for calibers.
762.39 is actually starting to drop right now here; but I do not see that for 223 yet. Again, wait another 6 months. also the cost for 9, 45, 380, and other pistol cals are just up becuase 223 and 308 is, when these two come down, the other pistol ammos will come down with it. They are high right now, because of simple manipulation.

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