When will the next leg down for prices be


PDA






mp5a3
July 17, 2009, 11:46 AM
It seems to me we have to reach a point on AR's AK's, handguns etc where everyone has had their fill, has what they need, and there's no need to buy anything new. A lot of the recent sales have been form fear, but I'm sure I'm like a lot of people here in that I've had what I needed for years. So the manufacturers are going to keep pumping out however many they make each day with the only new sales coming from either new shooters or collectors/people who shoot a lot.

Am I way off ? It seems like we'll hit a point where we have a huge supply of product with no (or very few) buyers. I mean not everyone has $800-$1200 to spend on a gun that costs $.25-$.45 everytime you hit the trigger. Will some makers go out of business ?

If you enjoyed reading about "When will the next leg down for prices be" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!
Lone_Gunman
July 17, 2009, 11:58 AM
I think you are way off. The next run on guns will occur just as soon as somebody in Obama's administration starts talking about a new AWB. Obama still plans to do that, you know.

mp5a3
July 17, 2009, 12:04 PM
Yea, that's kinda what I'm asking. What will the next catalyst be. It can't help that everyone thinks the world will end in 2012.

P.B.Walsh
July 17, 2009, 12:26 PM
I still need to buy a RRA, so lets not say that their are no buyers, I need at least 1 AR. :):)

winknplink
July 17, 2009, 12:53 PM
IMO, the next catalyst will come if/when our government decides to start a drug war with Mexico.

offthepaper
July 17, 2009, 01:23 PM
I'm in no way trying to turn this thread into a anti-O.
But in relation to your question, I think the next major catalyst will be if it appears he will win a second term. A lame duck prez can REALLY push the envelope when it comes to presenting laws or executive orders.

TexasRifleman
July 17, 2009, 01:27 PM
Ammo stays this scarce the price of guns may go to nothing :)

I've always joked that someday we'd see guns given away for free and ammo at $200 a round.

It seemed funny at the time. Now it's not so funny......

waterhouse
July 17, 2009, 01:38 PM
So the manufacturers are going to keep pumping out however many they make each day with the only new sales coming from either new shooters or collectors/people who shoot a lot.

We were at this point last September. Manufacturers were making what the made, and the guns were selling, either to new shooters, new AR owners, or guys who figured 6 ARs wasn't enough and they needed a seventh (I'm not knocking these guys, I occasionally am one of them).

If a company was doing fine at the middle of last year, they will probably continue to be fine. If a company was struggling last year, the boost in sales may help them turn around or it may merely keep them afloat for a little bit longer.

I've always joked that someday we'd see guns given away for free and ammo at $200 a round.

It works for razors and printers, why not guns :D

mp5a3
July 17, 2009, 01:54 PM
Hey "offthepaper" last I checked his approval rating was 30% so I'm sure he's losing political capital, and if a second stimulus goes through, it's as good as gone.

DMK
July 17, 2009, 02:31 PM
I'm sure I'm like a lot of people here in that I've had what I needed for years.I'm one of those people. Maybe I'm a minority. I haven't bought a new gun, mags or even any any ammo in over a year and a half. It just became too much of a hassle with everything on back order, prices going up, buying new stuff wasn't fun any more. I started to seriously look at what I had and realized that I didn't really "need" anything else. Maybe if it becomes a buyer market again I might get the itch for something new.

offthepaper
July 17, 2009, 03:01 PM
Hey "offthepaper" last I checked his approval rating was 30% so I'm sure he's losing political capital, and if a second stimulus goes through, it's as good as gone.

Haven't seen the 30% approval rating. I did see one a week ago showing it at 58% (and falling). I agree if they go to Stim #2 things could go south surer than a goose looking for a suntan in the winter. That or a cram down your throat health plan passage that nobody reads, or a lot of other things we can't even imagine yet.
But my original post was meant to state what might trigger (:D) the next buying frenzy. The thought of him getting a second term would (I think) would almost get the soccer Mom's willing to pay inflated prices for some form of protection if they percieve the possibilty of an all out push for a ban.
If that becomes the case, it could make the current frenzy look like the "good ole days".

RP88
July 17, 2009, 03:05 PM
if he wins a second term AND still has congress (something that may be iffy right now), then there will be an AWB legislation pop up, unless the courts move faster than 2012 and something magical happens that would either prevent or greatly discourage one. But even if one does pop up, I see it not passing, at least right now, assuming the politicians are...um...err...honest.

lions
July 17, 2009, 03:15 PM
So the manufacturers are going to keep pumping out however many they make each day with the only new sales coming from either new shooters or collectors/people who shoot a lot.

I would bet the manufacturers have a pretty close eye on the market and will slow production as necessary. Not too many will produce themselves out of a job.

Uncle Mike
July 17, 2009, 03:29 PM
Obama still plans to do that, you know.

Really..... says who...not Obama?

I would bet the manufacturers have a pretty close eye on the market and will slow production as necessary. Not too many will produce themselves out of a job.

Right you are... the manufacturers have done this for years now... that's why you see product advertised for months or years before it's available.

mp5a3
July 17, 2009, 03:37 PM
Awww shucks, I've been waiting for that $899 Colt 6920 or LMT Defender. Seriously though, I wouldn't mind getting a few things if prices drop. I have about 26000 rounds on 9mm that I bought years ago, so I might sell some of that to fund another gun purchase.

Still makes me wonder how much ammo is "enough" My class III dealer had 50,000 rounds of .45 and over 100,000 of .223/5.56. Never lost a dime.

Lone_Gunman
July 17, 2009, 05:23 PM
Really..... says who...not Obama?

Obama is on record multiple times stating he wanted a new AWB. Up until recently, the White House website listed this as a goal, and in February the Attorney General stated it was a goal of the Obama White House.

You might be right though. After a lifetime of being vehemently anti-gun, perhaps he has had a change of heart.

DRYHUMOR
July 17, 2009, 07:44 PM
I posted recently that the next run on guns would be from somthing unforseen. I still believe that.

However, if you follow the dollar on the business page, you will note that the dollar is in decline. Metals are lower right now, but that will change. The lowered value of the dollar and metals prices may very well push the cost of rifles up a good bit in the next year or 2.

freakshow10mm
July 17, 2009, 07:49 PM
Manufacturers have already made changes to the market. Hell, ARs are on sale and many of the big names report the receiver back orders are caught up or are only a few hundred out from being produced for current orders. I know a few dealers that got caught with a bunch of lowers and are now sitting on a few hundred without moving much at all.

Ignition Override
July 17, 2009, 09:41 PM
Lone Gunman and Fellow Shooters:

Good points and questions. It surprised me last winter that Attorney General Eric Holder was quickly muzzled by Senators, or others on the Cabinet after he used the words "AWB".

Although any gun topics are sort of new to me (very late-bloomer), this action to silence such words from the AG really "said something". This seemed a paradox with most people panicking over ammo and most people listening closely to, if not secretly believing any and all gun show rumours.

oneounceload
July 17, 2009, 09:58 PM
I doubt you'll see prices, especially on ammunition, drop any significant amount from current amounts. Right now, with ammo and components, it's about supply; they're not expanding production, they're playing close to the vest and running OT for the time being. The next 6 months will be interesting

Kymasabe
July 18, 2009, 12:30 AM
In my area, I'm seeing more and more AK's and AR's on the shelves, my local gunshop says the buying frenzy has slowed to a crawl and prices are dropping. 7.62x39 that was $200 per 500 rounds is now $150 per 500. Prices online are dropping as well and supply/availability is increasing.
For example: for the last few months, ClassicArms would sell out of 7.62 ammo in days, often overselling their stock and having to limit quantity on purchases. Now, they've had the same pile of ammo for sale for weeks. They either got a HUGE shipment or buying has slowed...or both.
Either way, it's a shift in the market.

Ignition Override
July 18, 2009, 12:37 AM
Kymasabe: "Roger that".

A quick survey for the last two weeks of comments at "Ammunition" on "SKSboards" has revealed the sudden widespread supply of .223 and 7.62x39, although backordered.

A look at "JGsales", "SGuide", "Ammoman" etc confirms it.

Arkel23
July 18, 2009, 12:47 AM
I think you are way off. The next run on guns will occur just as soon as somebody in Obama's administration starts talking about a new AWB. Obama still plans to do that, you know. He was never planning to ban assault weapons that weren't already banned, by Bush, he was just putting a permanent ban on them.

mp5a3
July 18, 2009, 02:42 AM
Try this for 7.62x39 prices..

http://www.aimsurplus.com/acatalog/Wolf_7.62x39_122grn_FMJ_Poly_Performance.html

lipadj46
July 18, 2009, 03:32 AM
He was never planning to ban assault weapons that weren't already banned, by Bush, he was just putting a permanent ban on them.

There are no federal AW bans at the moment so I'm not exactly sure what you are saying. There are some in DC that would like to reinstate the Federal AWB with some changes to tie up loose ends and make it permanent. I think that a law like that would be a tough one to pass.

Oldtrader3
July 18, 2009, 10:59 AM
Leg down for prices??? I would settle for being able to buy small primers and pistol/revolver bullets or decent .45 ACP ammo at any price near normal and actually get them from stock without 3 months B.O.

jester_s1
July 18, 2009, 11:44 AM
Lipadj46 should study up on his history a bit. It was Bill Clinton that ramrodded through the first assault weapons ban, and had to include a 10 year sunset clause to get it done. Bush let it expire on the sunset date, seeing as how it had accomplished nothing besides driving up the prices of EBR's with all the doodads attached and hi cap pistol mags. Obama is on record that he would like to bring back the AWB without the sunset clause.

MAKster
July 18, 2009, 12:34 PM
The prices for ARs are dropping big time. The hysteria is over and increased production in leading to a glut of inventory. CDNN is advertising CMMGs for $800 and the Colt 6920 for $1199. I think the people who were predicting never ending price increases are still in denial.

Ky Larry
July 19, 2009, 12:56 AM
+1, Oldtrader3. I've had to "retire" my .30 cal rifles because there are no 150-180gr bullets to be had in my area. This shortage is becoming tedious.

lipadj46
July 19, 2009, 09:31 AM
Lipadj46 should study up on his history a bit. It was Bill Clinton that ramrodded through the first assault weapons ban, and had to include a 10 year sunset clause to get it done. Bush let it expire on the sunset date, seeing as how it had accomplished nothing besides driving up the prices of EBR's with all the doodads attached and hi cap pistol mags. Obama is on record that he would like to bring back the AWB without the sunset clause.

I think you need to polish up on you reading comprehension. I never said bush did anything that was someone else. You can sit there and quake in your boots if you want but I'm not sure what the point is. The Republicans are way too united this time around for this to get rolled over them if it ever gets that far.

Lone_Gunman
July 19, 2009, 11:52 AM
The prices for ARs are dropping big time. The hysteria is over and increased production in leading to a glut of inventory. CDNN is advertising CMMGs for $800 and the Colt 6920 for $1199. I think the people who were predicting never ending price increases are still in denial.

I think you are forgetting that Obama is a true believer in the liberal agenda. The AWB issue will come back. When it does, prices will spike. If Obama is elected to a 2nd term, I am certain prices will spike again, as people realize he will have nothing to lose in a 2nd term if he tries to do a new AWB.

AirForceShooter
July 19, 2009, 12:44 PM
Probably 2010 when the Republicans take Congress.

AFS

krs
July 19, 2009, 01:15 PM
That democratic congress is too precious to Obama to take chances with, but if there is another ban I don't know why so many people seem to assume that it would be the same as the previous one.

They KNOW that the Clinton AWB was flawed in many ways. It left so many loopholes that for most states it had little effect at all. The manufacturers came with compliant versions of supposedly banned guns and we kept on shooting the whole while. So you couldn't have a bayonet lug or maybe not a 30 round mag. But who really had a hard time getting guns and twenty round mags if that type of weapon was such a consuming need? I didn't (though admittedly I was immune with pre-ban stuff that I'd had for years).

I think that another ban will be much more inclusive, and it'll be written in such a way that there won't be the ABILITY to go out of the house with your AR15 bought at a ridiculously high price in a panicked scramble, or something like that. I mean if they are able to pass another ban it'll be a BAN without all the holes of the previous one, and I think restrictions on ammo will be a major element of it. Next time they'll force you all out of gun ownership or use, they won't care which.

I say "force you" because in all likelihood I'll be dead before they get it done, thank goodness.

leadcounsel
July 19, 2009, 06:08 PM
This is all a strategy by the left. An AWB will come folks, it'll just take time. At this point the DEMS really have the numbers for the vote. However, the harder fights are for the healthcare and cap n trade. The DEMS are not stupid. They will fight those fights first.

Other catalysts will be another large scale tragic shooting(s), or if the DEMS retain control after 2010 or 2012.

It's coming though, don't fool yourself!

If you enjoyed reading about "When will the next leg down for prices be" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!