Calculating risk and letting it effect your CCW decision.


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kd7nqb
September 5, 2009, 03:37 PM
So this is something I see on this and other boards a lot and I know I have been guilty of it as well.

People tend to run some sort of mental calculation about the activities they are going to do that day and then let that impact their CCW decision. Ranging from " I am just running to the 7-11 in broad day light so I don't need to take my gun" to "I need to go run an errand in the bad area of town at 2am so I am wearing both 1911's my IDPA 4 mag holder and that IBA I brought back from Iraq"

However after reading a lot of strategy and tactics threads most of the incidents tend to be while doing an activity so routine that they let their awareness slide and find themselves in a bad situation that if they had been going into that "bad area" of town they would have seen coming.

The perfect example of this was a few nights ago I ran out for ice at about midnight after getting home from work. The errand was to the local mini-mart and as I walked out the door I thought, damm this is EXACTLY the type of situation that goes south. So I walked back in tossed on my gun and then went back out.

How many others find themselves running these mental calculations. I guess I can understand changing up your gun or method of carry for your activities, say if your going to be on rollercoasters all day maybe open carrying that glock 17 in a non-retention holster is not the best option. Or if your going to be driving all day then set up your carry rig for an easier seated draw.

What I dont understand is the "I carry a Kel-tec p3at every day and I trust it with my life" and then they go into a bad area of town and they end up tossing on the Smith 500 magnum instead.

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Deanimator
September 5, 2009, 03:45 PM
I carry everywhere it's legal to do so.

If I could accurately predict WHEN I'd need a gun, I wouldn't NEED a gun. I'd just be some place else when the need arose.

The ironclad proof of this is the shootings of six women (five of whom died) in a Lane Bryant store in Tinley Park, Illinois. I've been to Tinley Park on a number of occasions, and it NEVER felt "dangerous" to me. Yet those five women are still dead. I'm pretty sure that if those women knew the guy who shot them was going to visit that store that day, they'd have been some place else. They of course couldn't know that and were there. Five of them are dead. That means that they had the choice of either taking the precautions necessary to defend themselves or to trust to luck. Unfortunately for them, the State of Illinois, in its "wisdom" determined that five dead women was a better outcome than one woman defending herself with a handgun. Fortunately for the most part, I don't have that sort of victimization forced upon me by the State of Ohio.

Defend yourself or don't get defended at all.

scottaschultz
September 5, 2009, 04:36 PM
If you go through the effort to take a CCW class, invest in quality handgun, buy defensive grade ammunition, why would you bother to only carry part time?

Scott

GodGuns&Guitars
September 5, 2009, 04:41 PM
If I'm out the door, I'm armed. Doesn't matter where, how long gone, anything. If I go through the door, I am armed.

scotthsi
September 5, 2009, 04:45 PM
That's why I ALWAYS have at least a "pocket buddy" along for the trip. Love, love, love my Kahr PM9. Still have two great, reliable Kel-Tec P3ATs, but they don't see much pocket carry since getting the PM9. ;)

mljdeckard
September 5, 2009, 04:51 PM
The only time I leave it home is when I know I will be going somewhere I won't be allowed to carry. (Military posts.)

Other than that, carry needs to be a discipline. If you ever shoot someone in self-defense, you can't have your lawyer making an explanation of how you knew that on this occasion you knew you were going to a bad part of town, so you decided to take a gun. This opens up the argument that you could have just not gone in the first place. Your explanation for why you were carrying on that particular occasion needs to be; "There was nothing special about this occasion. I always carry." Then you didn't do anything or omit anything that caused the incident.

wrs840
September 5, 2009, 05:10 PM
Yes, I think about where I'm going/ what I'm doing/ how I'm dressed, and that changes the choice of gun... but I'm always CC (or OC sometimes) if dressed... where/when legal, of course (even at home).

Les

Erik M
September 5, 2009, 05:19 PM
For me it depends on the occasion and whats going on. I might carry 1 day out of the week.

Vern Humphrey
September 5, 2009, 05:30 PM
If I could accurately predict WHEN I'd need a gun, I wouldn't NEED a gun. I'd just be some place else when the need arose.
Absolutely!

It's like being able to accurately predict when you'll have an accident, and only fastening your seat belt when you think you're likely to be in an accident. Or only buying homeowner's insurance in the year you predict you will have a fire.

bigfatdave
September 5, 2009, 05:50 PM
I don't have that sort of victimization forced upon me by the State of Ohio.Unless you want to eat somewhere that happens to have a Class D liquor permit.
I pack whenever I can, also, for pretty much the same reasons previous posts have listed. I can't pack when I'm on the job, but my employer is nice enough to actually provide armed security when they disarm the rest of the employees, so that's OK. Beyond that, unless I'm going to a government building or a Class D place, I pack the same gun the same way.

scotthsi
September 5, 2009, 06:00 PM
Class D place? What, you have to call "tower" before getting closer than 5 sm or below 2,500 ft AGL? Pilots will get this. :cool:

ByAnyMeans
September 5, 2009, 06:17 PM
I figure the chance of me needing a gun is so slim that at that point I'm pushing my luck to say it would be a "typical" confrontation, if there is such a thing. I therefore want to give myself every advantage and carry accordingly. This means the most possible and goes from a P3AT to a Glock 26 with 15rd mag. A 12 gauge for a home defense longarm.

Many may think that I don't carry a lot considering I want maximum protection. I go for a gun and extra magazine as possible, the extra magazine always being the most capacity possible. This mean a fifteen rounder for the Glock even if I only have a t-shirt on and the ten rounder in the gun. It also means a 7 shot P3AT mag. Anytime I have tried more I have found myself going towards leaving it home or in the car which defeats the purpose. I also found having less practice with each gun and some difficulty transitioning to different things like sight picture and grip. So I take the extra money from the fewer guns and accessories and put it towards more practice and training.

bigfatdave
September 5, 2009, 06:27 PM
Class D place? In Ohio, carry in an establishment that serves liquor is illegal. Just packing in a restaurant that happens to serve booze is apparently dangerous to the public.
There's a bill languishing in committee to address the issue, but until the law is rationalized, we're supposed to disarm before entering any establishment with a Class "D" liquor permit.

scotthsi
September 5, 2009, 06:30 PM
Yeah, I "get it". :rolleyes:

thezoltar
September 5, 2009, 06:34 PM
Risk assessment is a normal decision. Taking a fire extinguisher scuba diving will probably not cut down on undewater fires. It might, but probably not.

content
September 5, 2009, 07:09 PM
Hello friends and neighbors // Unfortunately no place is safe.

Shootings at malls,resturants,convience stores,wall street and t.v. network office buildings, schools ..... you name it.

Lately in suburban neighborhoods here BG or Bad Guys pull car right into any driveway with open garage door. No telling where that might go, quick grap of golf clubs/ chainsaw or complete home invasion.

Recently while gardening (my work) for a woman in a very upscale area. I walked into the back yard and found a very rough looking man, wearing rubber gloves getting water from the hose attached to house. Suprised both of us, he ran right through the bushes toward a creek. // LEO says this creek is highway for BG to get into area unnoticed . Her husband is gone during day and I just happened to be working that day. She now has firearm for carry in her own home.


I hope you feel secure everywhere, weather carrying or not. I will continue to go armed whenever and wherever possible. Mainly with my wits, but they sometimes need the help of a few tools.

Tirod
September 6, 2009, 10:15 PM
I work retail. CCW on the job is difficult at best. In my previous job, it was impossible, as the plant was clearly labeled off - limits. I probably worked with more seriously dangerous people there than now - convicted felons on work release, and large bald guys with prison tats on their neck that proclaimed white spremacy and their love of the SS.

I'd have to say my risk assessment highlights my drive home at 8:30 PM down Main Street, or a walk down the Rails to Trails project as more dangerous. Either "dogs" at Walgreens or dogs running loose in the permanently undeveloped area between neighborhoods.

It's nice to hear some can carry and dress for it - but for those who actively work their shift, and don't have the option of easy concealment, it's a much harder game. Twisting, bending, lifting, and moving in close proximity to co workers and the public restricts a lot of options.

You won't carry if whatever holster pinches, prints, binds, or can be accidently felt. That impacts the risk decision more often in my opinion. It's why so many have to choose an ankle holster or carry with a tshirt holster or Thunderwear. And getting older with a mature waistline doesn't help.

Each of us makes their own decision based on their circumstances and lifestyle. Things change, and so does carry.

Glockman17366
September 7, 2009, 07:56 AM
The perfect example of this was a few nights ago I ran out for ice at about midnight after getting home from work. The errand was to the local mini-mart and as I walked out the door I thought, damm this is EXACTLY the type of situation that goes south. So I walked back in tossed on my gun and then went back out.

That's exactly the scenario I consider when I put my snubby .38 in my pocket for those short trips in "safe" areas. I do this religiously.

Fred Fuller
September 7, 2009, 09:05 AM
Don't think "odds."

Think "stakes."

The only way to have a gun every time you need it, is to have one with you all the time.

lpl

yakkingallover
September 7, 2009, 09:21 AM
The risk factor affects my carry habits, but I always carry. If going over to my moms on a Saturday morning or some friends for a BBQ I slide the j frame in my pocket, If I am working late in our lonely industrial park I take my sigma and a spare 16rnd mag. Yesterday while working alone on a long weekend in our lonely industrial park I carried the sigma and my rifle.
A guy who worked next door to our shop got jumped by four guys and they beat him petty bad. I keep the gate closed and stay well armed.

PakWaan
September 7, 2009, 10:39 AM
If I could accurately predict WHEN I'd need a gun, I wouldn't NEED a gun. I'd just be some place else when the need arose.



Exactly. I used to think twice before strapping on my 1911 in the Florida summer heat when I was "just" running out for a few minutes. Although my 1911 is still an issue when I'm in shorts and a t-shirt, I recently bought a Rohrbaugh 9mm that's the same size as my old Keltec P-3AT, and now I never leave the house without it in a pocket holster or an IWB - it's so small that even in the IWB I never feel it.

Chances are that you will only need it once in a lifetime - I'd hate for that time to crop up when it's sitting at home in a gun safe.

.

green country shooter
September 7, 2009, 01:07 PM
someone said once that a handgun is for those times when you are pretty sure you won't need a gun.

Mikhail Weiss
September 7, 2009, 01:20 PM
No mental gymnastical trickery required. I reckon I went through the bother to get the license, so I'll carry wherever it's allowed.

True story. December 1993, Hugo, OK, uncle o' mine and his son went to a local Wal-Mart one fine day and the second they reached the front door, a kooky fellow hopped out of his pickup and fired a number of rile shots at the front of the place, killing two and injuring three. Uncle and his son, along with a great many others headed through the front entrance when the shooting started, all ran to the back of the store and exited.

Turns out that uncle almost always has a revolver with him, but always leaves it in the truck. Not saying that having it in hand would have made any difference in this case, but if the timing had been different, he and son might have been the ones face-to-face with a gunman in a Wal-Mart parking lot, as opposed to the two other unfortunate folks who died.

So what's more mundane, routine, boring, and harmless than a quickie run to the local Wally World?

How about a trip to the post office. The local one here, where I used to conduct a lot of my business, turned into a shooting gallery August of 1986. Fourteen folks doing nothing more than showing up for work were killed that day, six others wounded.

Certainly those are out-of-the-ordinary events, and do not by themselves form the basis of my decision to CCW, but they do, albeit in more spectacular fashion, illustrate that random crime, yes indeed, can befall the most innocent of us while conducting the most innocent of activities in the most innocent of places. Though the odds of personally suffering violent crime might be low, those low odds don't help at all if your number's up. Possessing yet another option for responding to violent crime seems like a good idea. Not availing oneself of that option doesn't.

Vern Humphrey
September 7, 2009, 01:38 PM
someone said once that a handgun is for those times when you are pretty sure you won't need a gun.
And you're too shy to go out stark naked.:p

fastbolt
September 7, 2009, 01:51 PM
Having a lawfully carried & concealed handgun is one thing ... but being able to effectively use it under the unexpected physical, mental & emotional stresses of a rapidly changing, chaotic deadly force encounter is something else.

I've worked with LE & non-LE folks (CCW licenses) for a fair number of years. A surprising number of both lawfully armed groups of folks either don't always carry a weapon (meaning off-duty for the LE folks), or else they don't invest much time practicing with it. Shooting a firearm is often considered a perishable skill for good reason.

Then, there's seeing firsthand how some of the guns being carried as dedicated defensive weapons have been "maintained". Sometimes this issue reveals itself when functioning issues arise on the range. Imagine it arising when the weapon was actually needed.

Then, I discovered that a surprising number of such folks apparently aren't as familiar and as well practiced with their carry methods as you might hope.

Lots of folks own cars, motorcycles and guitars ... which doesn't mean they're good drivers, riders or can play guitar. Now, factor in some unexpected stressful situations and see how well they can drive, ride or play ...

AZ_Rebel
September 7, 2009, 02:27 PM
For me it depends on the occasion and whats going on. I might carry 1 day out of the week. :rolleyes:

An sad answer like that means you really don't understand the problem.:banghead:

Frank Ettin
September 7, 2009, 03:24 PM
The hostess of the garden party notices that one of her guests, the town sheriff, was wearing his sidearm.

She goes up to him and asks, "Sheriff, I notice you're wearing your pistol. Are you expecting trouble? Here at my party?"

He replies, "Of course not, ma'am. If I was expecting trouble, I'd be carrying a rifle."

goofy grape
September 7, 2009, 03:45 PM
I carry everywhere I go. Orlando is one big hood now and the crime is rampant. Firearm involved crimes happen, even in the upper class sections, by the lower class that wanders in. I work as a Corrections Officer in the county jail here and get the weekly death threats by the teenaged/early 20's inmates we call "jitterbugs." Pak Waan was right. It is a little uncomfortable wearing a full sized 1911 in shorts and a tshirt. Tried a Glock 26 and it was too small for my hands. I have a Glock 17 but I keep that at home for the wife while I work at night. Besides, I prefer a .45 to a 9mm, regardless of what people say.

You'll never need a gun, until you need one badly.

Deltaboy
September 7, 2009, 04:06 PM
I carry as much and where the Law allows. I carry non firearm items in the rest.

kda
September 7, 2009, 06:16 PM
My wife and I both got our CCW permits because we thought we NEEDED THEM ... not because we needed something new to do with our time. I suspect that until our perception of that need is gone (not likely in our modern deteriorating 'civilization'), we will take advantage of our CCW permits all the time, every time. That is unless CCW is clearly prohibited by a state or federal law and we think there is a reasonable chance we will get checked.

scotthsi
September 8, 2009, 07:05 AM
we will take advantage of our CCW permits all the time, every time. That is unless CCW is clearly prohibited by a state or federal law and we think there is a reasonable chance we will get checked.

So, you'd just up and violate a federal law if you thought you could get away with it? Good luck at Club Fed! :rolleyes:

danprkr
September 8, 2009, 08:49 AM
Don't think "odds."

Think "stakes."

The only way to have a gun every time you need it, is to have one with you all the time.

True but (ain't there always a but) like it or not some of us can't ALWAYS carry even when legal. My profession is appliance repair, and property management. When in someones home repairing something I can't always conceal. Especially if I'm going to be laying down under a sink or something while working. Or up on a ladder working overhead. I thus far have not found a concealment system that is always concealed, and allows me the freedom of movement I need to do my job. So, it stays in the truck a lot. I sometimes hate it, but I gotta make a living.

My wife and I also do swing dance competitively as a hobby. It would be impossible to make all the movements required with a weapon and it not show or be felt by a partner. So, in the ballroom of a nice hotel, or dance studio it's in the car.

Bottom line, as much as I'd love to have a weapon on my body at all times there a times that I have to rely on situational awareness, alternate self defense (pepper spray and knife for instance), and preplanned escape routes etc. to keep safe and live my life on my terms. Which for me is what carrying is all about anyway.

esq_stu
September 8, 2009, 08:55 AM
Unless the risk is zero, the only thing to think about is obeying the law.

And even if the risk is zero, consider carrying a good habit, like eating your vegetables or exercising regularly. If you get out if good habits, that's when bad things really start to happen.

scotthsi
September 8, 2009, 08:55 AM
My profession is appliance repair, and property management. When in someones home repairing something I can't always conceal. Especially if I'm going to be laying down under a sink or something while working. Or up on a ladder working overhead. I thus far have not found a concealment system that is always concealed, and allows me the freedom of movement I need to do my job.

Pocket carry. I have a somewhat "physical" job as well. I carry all day long in a front or side pocket and it NEVER bothers me. Use a pocket with a buttoned, zipper or velcro flap. May not be the fastest draw in the west, but at least you have it with you. My daily carry is now a Kahr PM9 and has been for years. Used to be a Kel-Tec P3AT before that. Again, never a problem.

Fred Fuller
September 8, 2009, 09:01 AM
there a times that I have to rely on situational awareness, alternate self defense (pepper spray and knife for instance), and preplanned escape routes etc. to keep safe and live my life on my terms

If anything, having a sidearm on board only accentuates the need for those things- it doesn't nullify that need. Contrary to oft-expressed opinion, it's not just about the gun.

In the words of John Farnam - http://www.defense-training.com/quips/2003/19Mar03.html

lpl

Norinco982lover
September 8, 2009, 11:43 AM
I carry all of the time. If I CAN carry I DO carry. I cannot carry to work...so I don't. Everywhere else? I carry. Church, home, in laws, parents, friends, restaurants, etc. I carry to all of those places.

If you want to hassle me about carrying then you better be short and sweet about it because I won't put up with it for long. If you do not want me in your home carrying than I will not come over. So stuff it. It is my RIGHT and I feel my RESPONSIBILITY to protect myself and my family.

If you think a place is scary enough that you will NEED your gun than don't go there.

If I knew I was going to be in a fight than I wouldn't bring my CCH. I'd bring my Saiga and my shotgun ...and several friends.

~Norinco

p.s. my every day carry is an XD45 compact in crossbreed supertuck + belt

Hokkmike
September 8, 2009, 11:47 AM
Nothing to be "guilty of". We all must reason our circumstances. Odds are that none of us will ever use our guns in self defense much less defense of others. It just that the mathematical proabability does exist, therefore........

41magsnub
September 8, 2009, 11:50 AM
I've only been CC'ing for 2 weeks now but my little j-frame and a speed loader goes with me everywhere. The only exception is when I do work at a school, it stays in the car for that.

I've gotten to the point I forget it is in my pocket until I try to drop my keys in on top of it or something, still getting used to not having a right front pocket anymore.

eatont9999
September 8, 2009, 12:11 PM
The only calculation I make in the morning is .38-> in holster-> in pocket; then I am good to go. The only place I don't carry, or leave it in the car is work and known federal buildings. I have been known to forget to take it out though. It happens.

James T Thomas
September 8, 2009, 05:47 PM
Lee Lapin has the viewpoint that I favor. "Stakes."

Why on earth would you strap that little loved one in a child seat when the odds are that you will arrive at the grocery store without an accident?

Yes, and I have given up entirely on any reliance upon the weather forcast also.
What ever it is doing outside, I will be there any way.
I provide an umbrella in the car just in case.

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