Concealed Carry Statistics?


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essayons21
November 8, 2009, 10:23 PM
I am currently writing an essay on citizen preparedness and public awareness and its impact on homeland security and emergency preparedness.

I am making the argument that an armed populace = a safe populace, and that concealed carry and firearms ownership/training should be encouraged by federal and state governments as part of the overall FEMA and DHS Ready.gov initiative.

I have been looking for up to date statistics on the number of concealed carry permit holders by state. I need a reliable and "scholarly" source. I have found some statistics from 2004 which puts the percentage at 2-7% of the populace in most shall issue states, but I am certain it has gone up since then, especially after Va Tech, further relaxation of CCW laws, and the recent election.

I've seen 4% bantered around, but never seen a source. Can anyone help me out?

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gimlet1/21
November 9, 2009, 12:04 AM
Have you tried gunfacts.org I believe it has been recently updated and is full of statistics.

Librarian
November 9, 2009, 01:49 AM
Sounds like you want to do a partial update of Lott's More Guns, Less Crime.

Try http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/ for one.

Florida (http://licgweb.doacs.state.fl.us/stats/licensetypecount.html), Texas and Michigan have their stats on line, easy to find.

Dihappy
November 9, 2009, 03:20 AM
Hope this is of some help:

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm

Here are some examples of what the data show for the calendar year 2006:

In 2006, there were 258,162 active CHLs, but only 140 total convictions.

Overall - The general population over age 21 is over 7 times as likely to commit any offense listed by DPS as are CHLs

Assault - The general population over age 21 is over 8 times as likely to commit an assault as are CHLs

Burglary - The general population over age 21 is over 38 times as likely to commit a burglary as are CHLs

Prohibited Weapons - The general population over age 21 is over 21 times as likely to be convicted of possessing prohibited weapons as are CHLs

Robbery - The general population over age 21 is over 63 times as likely to commit a robbery as are CHLs

NukemJim
November 9, 2009, 08:23 AM
Oops Double Tap

NukemJim
November 9, 2009, 08:25 AM
Uhmm you may want to consider a slightly different approach regarding stats

First from Center for Disease Control

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwR/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5214a2.htm

The following laws were evaluated: bans on specified firearms or ammunition, restrictions on firearm acquisition, waiting periods for firearm acquisition, firearm registration and licensing of firearm owners, "shall issue" concealed weapon carry laws, child access prevention laws, zero tolerance laws for firearms in schools, and combinations of firearms laws. The Task Force found insufficient evidence to determine the effectiveness of any of the firearms laws or combinations of laws reviewed on violent outcomes.

Emphasis added by NukemJim[/QUOTE]
Then National Accedmy of Science

despite a large body of research, the committee found no credible evidence that the passage of right-to-carry laws decreases or increases violent crime,

http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=10881&page=2

As well as this article from Reason Magazine

http://www.crab.rutgers.edu/~goertzel/mythsofmurder.htm

And last but defiently not least from THR's own John Ross who is much better at this than I am.

THEY SAY: “If we pass this License-To-Carry law, it will be like the Wild West, with shootouts all the time for fender-benders, in bars, etc. We need to keep guns off the streets. If doing so saves just one life, it will be worth it.”



WE SAY: “Studies have shown blah blah blah” (FLAW: You have implied that if studies showed License-To-Carry laws equaled more heat-of-passion shootings, Right-To-Carry should be illegal.)



WE SHOULD SAY: “Although no state has experienced what you are describing, that’s not important. What is important is our freedom. If saving lives is more important than the Constitution, why don’t we throw out the Fifth Amendment? We have the technology to administer an annual truth serum session to the entire population. We’d catch the criminals and mistaken arrest would be a thing of the past. How does that sound?”



http://web.archive.org/web/20070115025334/www.john-ross.net/mistakes.htm

Best wishes and good luck

NukemJim

essayons21
November 9, 2009, 11:15 AM
Thanks for all of the help guys.

Just for clarification, I'm not trying to find any statistics linking CCW rates to crime. I just want to know the percentage of the US population that holds a valid CC permit. Florida is on the high end, but they have the most up-to-date and accurate records, so I will use them as an example unless I can find an accurate national percentage.

This essay is part of a broader thesis on Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness, that emphasized the concept of greater self-reliance, and self-rescue as part of the Ready.gov initiative. DHS has entirely focused on citizen preparedness, and forgotten about the citizenry's capability for response.

I'm staying away from the guns-crime argument. I'm looking at it purely from a homeland security aspect of firearms ownership, i.e. counter-terrorism.

Al Qaeda and other jihadist elements are evolving their planned attacks to include mass shootings in the United States. This is probably because of the percieved "success" by other non-affiliated mass shooters in racking up the body count and causing terror. Also the success of the Mumbai shootings by Lashkar e-Taiba has shown that industrialized countries are extremely soft targets to an internal, guerilla type attack.

Very few rational people at this point can deny that armed citizens are a good thing to have around if a mass shooter goes on a rampage. In the past 10 years, for every mass shooting, there is an example of an armed citizen who stopped a potential mass shooter before he could rack up the body count. Tyler Courthouse, Tacoma Mall, Trolley Square, Appalachian State, New Life Church are a few examples. I could go on. These instances do not garner even a fraction of the media attention as the high body count shootings, therefore they hardly exist in the public mind.

Simply put, it is proveable that a gun in the hands of a citizen causes there to be less fatalities in the case of a mass shooting. This is something that should not be ignored by the Department of Homeland Security or state agencies when dealing with the threat of jihadist mass shooters.

kingpin008
November 9, 2009, 11:33 AM
In the past 10 years, for every mass shooting, there is an example of an armed citizen who stopped a potential mass shooter before he could rack up the body count.

What about:
Columbine
VA Tech
The NYC Immigration Center shootings
The gunman who killed 10 at the Pennsylvania gym
The recent shooting in Orlando
The mass shootings at The Zone nightclub in Portland
or the Geneva County shootings in Alabama?

I don't mean to come across as argumentative, but if you're going to make generalized statements like that, you might want to consider the other side of things as well so you don't get your facts handed back to you on a silver platter.

Simply put, it is proveable that a gun in the hands of a citizen causes there to be less fatalities in the case of a mass shooting.

Got a cite? Once again, not looking for a fight - simply curious to see the statistics that prove that across the board citizen with gun = less fatalities from mass shootings.

Tommygunn
November 9, 2009, 11:40 AM
Let's not be too picky, Kingpin008. It was a generalized statement and of course it will lack specific proof.
I agree with it from the following point of view; yes there have been cases where a gun owner stopped a mass shooting. They seem to be ignored by the MSM though.
Of course it's good when honest people can and do put a stop to these rampages. It would be better if the rampages didn't happen but that appears to be too much "wishful thinking."

kingpin008
November 9, 2009, 12:09 PM
Tommy - I'm not being picky. It's not a generalized statement.

If the OP had started off by saying something like "it seems to me that ____" or "In general, _____" then of course, it's a generalized statement. But when someone says "In the past X years, the carrying of X by X individuals has caused X to have less of an effect on X"

That's specific, and should be followed by citations proving it or disproving it.

kda
November 9, 2009, 12:49 PM
Here are the current stats for AZ. Lots of interesting information, by age, race, county, etc. Here is the link to the original data.

Arizona Conceal Weapon Statistics through 11/08/09 (http://www.azdps.gov/Services/Concealed_Weapons/Statistics/)

Statistics - Concealed Weapons & Permits

These numbers reflect all transactions and the current status of permits, instructor certifications and training organizations since the inception of the CCW program in Arizona on September 8, 1994. Please note, these numbers do not reflect changes, such as a permit that was suspended and later reinstated.
Current Arizona Statistics

Statistics Last Updated: 11/8/2009 7:21:55 AM

Tommygunn
November 9, 2009, 07:39 PM
Tommy - I'm not being picky. It's not a generalized statement.

If the OP had started off by saying something like "it seems to me that ____" or "In general, _____" then of course, it's a generalized statement. But when someone says "In the past X years, the carrying of X by X individuals has caused X to have less of an effect on X"

That's specific, and should be followed by citations proving it or disproving it.


Maybe ----
What the poster seemed to be saying in essence was there is a "one to one correspondence between a mass shooting that when unchecked and a mass shooting that was stopped by an armed citizen."

No matter how good we have it as far as gun rights I would never expect a "one to one basis or correspondence." If we really had good CCW laws I might try a good argument claiming a "1 to 1" basis to be miserable --- ALL mass hootings SHOULD be stopped by an armed citizen.

I guess though I did not express myself very well in the above post #9.
What I would guess is for stats like that to be more haphazard and "1 to 1" seems to be somehow planned or designed [maybe by some deity .... ;-) ] than accidental or a real-world phenomenon.

Trebor
November 9, 2009, 10:29 PM
For Michigan, do a Google search for the Michigan State Police website. You want to find the link for the 2009 Concealed Pistol License report. This will be a PDF file. Among the info will be info on the number of CPL holders in Michigan. I don't think they give the specific info on what the percentage of CPL is compared to the general population, but they might. If they don't at least you will have the number of permit holders and after that you can google for the 2000 Cenus data that lists the population of Michigan. A little simple math and you'll have your percentage figure.

I don't have any of the specific links but you should be able to find them with google in under 10 minutes.

franconialocal
November 10, 2009, 01:40 PM
I'm a police officer in a small town (of about 1,000 permanent res./6,000 transient during vacation seasons) I get a new CCW application from someone about once a month on AVERAGE. Currently we have had a larger influx of applicants. Hard to know what the change is, but being pro 2A myself, I'm all for it. These are good, hard-working people that I know personally and they are mature, responsible folks. NH laws are still very 2A oriented. This is only one town reporting so base some figures off that.

So, from a "small town perspective" I hope this stat helps.

essayons21
November 11, 2009, 12:51 PM
Columbine - Pearl High School, Alabama

VA Tech - Appalachian School of Law

The NYC Immigration Center shootings - Tyler Courthouse

The gunman who killed 10 at the Pennsylvania gym - Tacoma Mall

The recent shooting in Orlando - Trolley Square

The mass shootings at The Zone nightclub in Portland - 2 killed, I wouldn't count as a mass shooting, depending on reports not even 10 people were actually shot (some injuries were not from GSWs) - But a recent event in my hometown

http://www2.timesdispatch.com/rtd/news/local/crime/article/SHOT121_20090711-230802/279571

or the Geneva County shootings in Alabama? - This is a tough one because it was spread out over a large area, but New Life Church comes to mind, as the shooter was stopped at the 2nd church he visited and may have intended on continuing his spree to other churches.


It is very difficult to draw conclusions because there is not even a real definition of a "mass shooting." I have tried to group them based more on the motive of the perpetrator than body count itself. In the last 20 years, I can't recall a shooting with a high body count where a law abiding citizen, off-duty LEO, or armed security guard was present. And every high profile mass shooting has taken place in a gun free zone.

It is not absolute empirical proof, but there is a proveable correlation, and you can infer causation. I am still conducting research, but eventually I will crunch the numbers. At this point I believe I can show with statistically valid confidence that the presence of a gun in the hands of the law-abiding lowers body counts.

harrygunner
November 11, 2009, 06:57 PM
I'd say, for the country as a whole, 1.5% is about right.

I'm sorry for not having ownership or reference for this data. Sometimes, I'll retain data for my own edification, not thinking about sharing it in the future.

But, for the sake of your education, I'm posting it. Since there's no reference, take it with as much salt as you deem necessary.

Missing states have percentages too small to post. Note: California is small overall, but has counties with percentages above three percent.

7.45% South Dakota
6.79% Indiana
6.76% Pennsylvania
5.23% Connecticut
5.12% Washington
4.34% Idaho
4.10% Utah
3.86% Oregon
3.45% Tennessee
3.15% Alabama
2.72% Florida
2.71% Kentucky
2.67% Wyoming
2.41% Maine
2.18% Arkansas
2.11% Virginia
1.94% West Virginia
1.76% Arizona
1.75% Oklahoma
1.70% Montana
1.70% Michigan
1.62% Texas
1.39% South Carolina
1.34% North Dakota
1.00% North Carolina
0.86% Mississippi
0.62% Louisiana
0.58% Nevada
0.45% Minnesota
0.36% Missouri
0.33% Ohio
0.20% Colorado
0.17% New Mexico

--

OK, did a google search on "7.45% South Dakota" and found this:

http://concealedcarryholsters.org/california-ccw-holder-stats/
and
http://www.datamasher.org/user-data-sets/adults-carry-permits-shall-issue-states

essayons21
November 11, 2009, 07:56 PM
Harrygunner,

Thanks for the info. I found that data as well, its dated to 2003-2004. The reason I was really trying to get newer data is because of the huge surge in CCW post-Katrina, Va Tech, and Obama.

For example Florida jumped from about 3% in 2003 to about 5% in 2009. Virginia had a ~60% increase in CCW permits in the year after Va Tech. More states are publishing CCW data, so if I have time I may try figuring out a national estimate, extrapolating the increases in states I have data for to states for which I can't find data.

Superlite27
November 12, 2009, 02:01 PM
I found that data as well, its dated to 2003-2004

Might as well discard it as recent CCW activity has probably completely changed the entire listing.

Example: Missouri's CCW law was passed in 2003 and only took full effect in 2004. This would mean these statistics are only valid for the very first year of CCW in Missouri. I'm sure there have probably been more CCW's issued in 2009 alone than the first three years in MO combined.

MedWheeler
November 12, 2009, 10:01 PM
For those of you keeping track of any ratio between "successful" mass shootings and those stopped by an armed instant responder (AIR), you might also try including one more thing in your data collection: whether or not the possession of a firearm was prohibited in the location of the incident (not just whether or not state law allowed it, but the actual location's governing body, public or private.) My guess is that it can be substantiated that, in virtually all of the "uninterrupted" attacks, possession was not permitted (though the shooter/shooters certainly were not swayed by the prohibition.) In those cases in which an AIR intervened, it was legal to be equipped to do so.

essayons21
November 12, 2009, 10:06 PM
For those of you keeping track of any ratio between "successful" mass shootings and those stopped by an armed instant responder (AIR), you might also try including one more thing in your data collection: whether or not the possession of a firearm was prohibited in the location of the incident (not just whether or not state law allowed it, but the actual location's governing body, public or private.) My guess is that it can be substantiated that, in virtually all of the "uninterrupted" attacks, possession was not permitted (though the shooter/shooters certainly were not swayed by the prohibition.) In those cases in which an AIR intervened, it was legal to be equipped to do so.

You are correct, nearly every high body count mass shooting occurred in an area where guns were prohibited by law or policy.

Interesting to note, both the Tacoma Mall and the Trolley Square Mall were gun-free zones, but the citizen and off-duty LEO in each were carrying contrary to mall policy.

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