Do you think reloading costs will ever go down?
MrWesson
December 26, 2009, 09:36 PM
Just like the title says do you think after selling primers for 29.99/1000 if supply goes down that manufactures will ever reduce the price? As a new guy I have been reading all I can and alot of threads are about the good ole days but have any of you guys that have been reloading a long time seen prices go down before?
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Walkalong
December 26, 2009, 09:41 PM
Yes, when the buying frenzy, which has slowed but is still going, stops.
jcwit
December 26, 2009, 09:56 PM
Yup, for the same reason as above. Remember "ever" is an awful looooong time.
dakotasin
December 26, 2009, 10:04 PM
i disagree. i think prices may hold steady, but will not drop.
Beelzy
December 26, 2009, 10:17 PM
Nope.
Been through these Waves a few times, but this time is different.
Really different.
Sludge
December 26, 2009, 11:26 PM
+1 Beelzy
snuffy
December 26, 2009, 11:38 PM
NO! Once anybody sees somebody is willing to pay inflated,(read gouging), prices, why would they reduce them? The days of $19.95/1k primers are gone. Wait till the inflation from the recent health care fiasco hit. $50.00/1k primers will be the cheapest you could find.
ReloaderFred
December 26, 2009, 11:56 PM
My dealer just received 100,000 Federal Small Pistol Primers, which were drop shipped directly from Federal. After paying shipping, HazMat and the cost of the primers, it cost him $128.00 a case, or $25.60 per thousand. Now this was on an order of 100,000, so if you're ordering smaller amounts, the shipping and HazMat is going to be more per case.
If I were a dealer today, which I was for 18 years, from 1977 to 1995, it would hardly make it worthwhile to sell these primers for less than $29.99, which is $4.39 per thousand over what he paid for them, delivered. Consider that he had to front the money to make a purchase that size, added to the costs of insurance, utilities and all the other costs to keep his doors open. He'll be lucky to make .25 cents profit per thousand on this lot of primers, that he's been waiting a year to get, since he placed the order last January.
Those are the realities, or as Jack Webb used to say, "just the facts, mam. Just the facts".
Hope this helps.
Fred
Flash Hole
December 27, 2009, 12:58 AM
$4.39 x 100=$439.00
Not worthwhile to me.
John
jfh
December 27, 2009, 01:03 AM
While I believe that this time is different--I also suspect that the 'new economics' of reloading will result in reloading components averaging perhaps 25 cents a round--at a time when store-bought ammo will be $50.00 and up.
When I started reloading twenty years ago, you could just barely still load .45ACP for 5 cents a round. IOW, reloading costs will follow inflation--and we are due for some good time inflation, one way or another.
Jim H.
Mxracer239y
December 27, 2009, 01:09 AM
John, no disrespect intended at all, but that profit is $4.39 per thousand primers, not per primer. Thats a total profit on all 100,000 of $439.
Eb1
December 27, 2009, 01:11 AM
someone beat me to it.
forquidder
December 27, 2009, 02:20 AM
I believe Flash Hole was refering to bricks and not individual primers.
As loaded as he is, a $4.39 profit per primer would probably be worthwhile. ;)
druch
December 27, 2009, 05:23 AM
4.39 x 100,000 = 4390.00
qajaq59
December 27, 2009, 06:14 AM
Don't complain too much about the cost of reloading supplies now. When the next wave of inflation hits, these will be the "Good Old Days" when things were cheap. And if you don't think so, go check the prices in some of the catalogs from the 1960s. :cuss:
ole farmerbuck
December 27, 2009, 06:32 AM
I dont really mind the (rounding up) .02 for powder and .o3 for primer as much as the cost for jacketed bullets loading for handguns. I guess i should use more cast bullets but i prefer jacketed.
Marlin 45 carbine
December 27, 2009, 08:18 AM
ditto beelzy. jacketed pistol (and rifle) have gone up quite a bit too. 'longdayjake' has good 124gr jhp 9mm at the best price I've found but I'm supposing that practice shooting for me anyway is gonna be cast slugs in pistols.
Encoreman
December 27, 2009, 09:16 AM
Look at the bright side, we can still "keep and bear arms", can still get ammo and components even though they are higher. A cheap price to pay for freedom?? Shall we be subjects or citizens?
jcwit
December 27, 2009, 09:51 AM
Allbit poor citizens.
Walkalong
December 27, 2009, 09:52 AM
NO! Once anybody sees somebody is willing to pay inflated,(read gouging), prices, why would they reduce them?I certainly understand that, and it is irritating, if not understandable, that folks keep paying it, but soon there will be many folks with zero need to buy primers for some time. That has to hurt demand, which will help prices.
The Bushmaster
December 27, 2009, 10:08 AM
Better question..."Do you think the cost of factory ammunition will go down?" Doubtful on both...
45ACPUSER
December 27, 2009, 12:17 PM
Well, you have to consider that it is what it is. Supply and Demand.
A local dealer has no changed his prices except wolf, as his costs went up.
CCI standard primers remain the cheapest on the wholesale level with the BR series the highest. The Win/Wolf are the next highest. RP and Federal are the most expensive standard primers. Most of the chains are sticking the screws to people take what Scheels charges for Federal primers.....
472x1A/B
December 27, 2009, 12:19 PM
+1 to what sunffy and ReloaderFred said. Compare some old '60's and '70's reloading componet catalogs with prices of today. No way are prices going to go down. Is gas going down? No! When my dad was farming a 50lb bag of seed corn was about $50- $60 a bag, try over $300 a 50lb bag now. So are $$$$ going to fall? Don't count on it.
ranger335v
December 27, 2009, 05:02 PM
"Do you think reloading costs will ever go down? "
I don't think that what I think will have any impact on costs either way.
mokin
December 27, 2009, 05:14 PM
I doubt the price of powder and primers will drop much. I seem to have a hard time finding jacketed handgun bullets which have been steadily increasing in both price and scarcity since before the '08 election.
243winxb
December 27, 2009, 05:27 PM
Never going down. NICS Surpasses 100 Million Transactions
On Saturday, April 4, 2009, at 8:35 p.m., the 100 millionth
NICS transaction was initiated by a Type 01 FFL. This landmark
transaction was initiated 1 day short of the 2-year
anniversary of the 75 millionth transaction, initiated on
April 5, 2007. http://www.atf.gov/publications/newsletters/ffl/ffl-newsletter-2009-11.pdf
gearheadpyro
December 27, 2009, 10:27 PM
I have seen prices go down a little bit. I think the prices may go down just a little bit more, but not much. Just like the gasoline prices did, they went up to the breaking point then came down but costs more today than it did 3 years ago. I think about the same thing will happen to reloading components.
Unfortunately I was not reloading when prices were lower, so this high price is all I know. Fortunately I have the good sense to know that prices will be skyrocketing again soon, and am buying all of the stuff I can get my hands on. Yes, I am hording like a mad man. You can thank me in the future if you heed my advice and do the same.
Roccobro
December 27, 2009, 11:03 PM
Yes it is.
Justin
1SOW
December 27, 2009, 11:12 PM
Like above, they may drop back some, but I doubt it'll be a significant decrease.
It wouldn't surprise me to see some 'cheap' ammo show up labelled 'Made in China".
There would be a big market for it.
Peter M. Eick
December 28, 2009, 11:39 AM
As others have pointed out, once inflation kicks in from the printing of money and the unsustainable debt we are now spending, we will look back at 40$/1000 primers and think "man the good old days".
I am very pessimistic about the future and the economy. I remember the Carter era and I see another version coming fast and quick.
ReloaderFred
December 28, 2009, 02:45 PM
Funny you should mention the Carter years, Peter. I've started refering to the obozo years as Carter's second term. I built a house while Carter was in charge and paid 23 5/8% interest on the construction loan, and the mortgage loan was 16.9%, and I was lucky to get that "low" of a rate.
Prices will come down a little, but not like they were in the past. When I first started loading in 1963, I could still buy surplus IMR 4831 for .35 cents a pound, and it came in paper bags with the roll top. I still have one pound of that powder. If I remember correctly, primers were about .39 cents per 100, but in those days I had to scrape together a dollar to buy a pound of powder and some primers, since I was working part time and going to college, and I was making $1.35 an hour at the local newspaper.
Were those the good ol' days? It all depends on your perspective, I guess.
Hope this helps.
Fred
Peter M. Eick
December 29, 2009, 12:12 PM
I agree Fred. Most folks today seem to forget what happened during Carter's time and how the price of everything just went up. I don't see why they don't remember it as it was amazing thing to live though and watch.
I agree, we are looking like we are heading into another Carter like period of near hyper-inflation, 20 percent loans and double digit mortgages. I am just happy to say mine is paid off, so I am running a cash based economy in my house. No debts but what I spend each month.
So when we look back on $40 per 1000 primers of 2009 which turns into say $120/1000 primers in 2013 and we think nothing of paying $60 per pound of powder we will look fondly back on 2009 and think about "the good old days".
fourdollarbill
December 29, 2009, 12:59 PM
I seen CCI small rifle primers on sale before Christmas for $29.99 at Kames Sport (Ohio). Then after Christmas I seen Alliant 2400 up for $29.99 a pound at Gander so I'm too confused to tell...
ForneyRider
December 29, 2009, 10:50 PM
Primers and powder are higher for sure.
Nosler bullets have pretty much been the same for the Ballistic Tips as 2+ years ago when I started up.
coloradokevin
December 30, 2009, 04:57 AM
I guess I'm still coming from the school of thought that it doesn't matter either way at this point... I haven't been able to find primers in a LONG time, so it doesn't really matter if they are giving them away for free, or charging $50/1,000.
I just recently scored 2,000 primers (Large pistol / Large rifle), and that's the first I've seen any in the stores for a very long time. The 1,000 large rifle primers will last me a while, but the 1,000 large pistol primers will be used up in short order. In fact, I still owe a coworker a box of small pistol primers (he was nice enough to spot me 1,000 earlier in the year), but I've yet to see those primers on the shelf anywhere!
We are definitely in some strange times for shooting sports.
Peter M. Eick
December 30, 2009, 06:25 AM
I just bought 3000 small pistol primers yesterday at Bass Pro for 28$/1000 if I remember right. They are starting to come back into supply so hold the faith. Just yesterday I fired up the press and started cranking out 10mm's and today I do 40's and 357 sigs till I run out of powder and bullets.
Prices are not coming down quickly (if ever) so I just bit the bullet (bad pun) and started loading again.
wilkersk
December 30, 2009, 07:00 AM
Wait a minute!:fire: Who's getting primers for $29.99/1,000? The cheapest I've seen in the last 18 months is $33.99/1,000 for Winchester small pistol primers.
I think its too early to tell whats going to happen with prices for ammo and reloading components. Wait till after the mid-term elections.
Peter M. Eick
December 30, 2009, 06:16 PM
I have bought them off the shelf in the last month for as little as $23 per thousand. Right now things are quite variable.
RidgwayCO
December 30, 2009, 08:43 PM
Yes, prices will go up, and then they'll go down, and then they'll go up, and then they'll go down... The only area where I've seen prices go down and stay down is telecommunications.
To save money in reloading, be prepared to purchase in bulk when you find a good deal. Don't think of it as "spending money", think of it as "investing in your future." And if you die young, your widow might be able to turn your guns and reloading hoard into a replacement husband...
counterclockwise
December 30, 2009, 09:57 PM
price go down....?
No, the hobby has expanded beyond anyone's wildest imagination. Unless Hornady, Speer, Sierra, Lapua, Hodgdon, Barnes, Swift, CCI, et.al. open up factories in China, and market through Wal-Mart, I would not expect the price to go down.
Horsemany
December 30, 2009, 10:42 PM
It is not out of the realm of possibility for increased prices and poor availability to turn many away from the sport. Especially with the economy in the toilet and shooting being a mostly blue collar sport. As America continues to urbanize and become less gun friendly we could see a time where supply is higher than demand and prices would come down accordingly. This is the only way I see prices coming down. Unfortunately it's not an impossible scenario.
Redneck with a 40
December 30, 2009, 11:40 PM
I don't think primers will drop below $30/1000 in the forseeable future. I've been getting Wolf Primers at guns shows, small rifle magnum and large rifle, for $35/1000, which I consider good in today's market. I've been stocking up.:)
Powder, I don't expect it to drop much below $20/pound.
MrWesson
December 31, 2009, 12:00 AM
Well since I started this thread I found 1k small pistol primers at bass pro for $34 not bad I guess since they are charging 49.99 locally:banghead:
Action_Can_Do
December 31, 2009, 05:06 AM
Wow. I feel terrible for you guys. I can still get a 1000 primers for a little less than $30 in my neighborhood.:uhoh:
evan price
December 31, 2009, 06:28 AM
There was a sort of artificial ceiling on primers of $30 a thousand. Nobody wanted to bust that and you could get them for less than $20 a thousand everywhere you looked. I was buying Wolf for $18 a thousand delivered to my door, including Hazmat and S&H&Ins.
Now that there was a shortage, they busted the ceiling of $30 and looked for the new high- which IMHO is now at $50- nobody wants to be over that. I can get all the primers I want in stock at my local gunstore in all types (have to not be picky about brand) for under $40 a thousand and heading to $35 a thousand.
I do not forsee regular prices under $30 a thousand for primers again, unless we're talking bought in bulk. Wolf raised their price to $26 a k and that basically killed any reason for the other vendors to keep their prices low. CCI is now the cheapest, believe that.
In terms of powder, we will NEVER AGAIN see surplus powder for cheap cheap cheap. It will NEVER BE SEEN AGAIN. The US Government is now destroying old powder and surplus instead of selling it, and the only surplus we will see is stuff that was never us.gov property.. and the foreign surplus, the sellers have realized that what they thought was garbage ten years ago actually does have value, and they want real money for it now, so surplus is now costing 90% of new cannister powder.
Just like gasoline....or college educations. Once it became affordable, the sellers boosted the price to find where the ceiling could be. Price it just high enough to be affordable, and keep raising it. The strategy is, as long as their is demand, keep raising the price until enough people stop wanting the product that you can get caught up on production.
Right now, Wal*Mart sells the cheapest ammo around. Problem is they are always out of it. The days of $5 9mm and 500-bricks of .22 LR for $6 are over forever.
USSR
December 31, 2009, 07:35 AM
In terms of powder, we will NEVER AGAIN see surplus powder for cheap cheap cheap. It will NEVER BE SEEN AGAIN. The US Government is now destroying old powder and surplus instead of selling it...
Yep, saw this coming. About 4 years ago, Widener's was selling the last of the military surplus IMR4895 powder for $78 per 8# cannister. Couldn't get the $$$ out of my wallet fast enough. Regarding primers, supplies of them are becoming available at the $30 - $35 price level, and if you guys are smart, you will stock up on them at this price. There are no economic/political conditions that will drive prices much lower, but there are a lot on the horizon that will drive them higher.
Don
50calshooter
January 1, 2010, 12:43 AM
I found LR Win primers for $25 tax paid at Tulsa Gun Show this fall.(powder Valley) Rex powers for shotgun are holding at $10. a pound Ramshot through Midway Terminator (223) power I think is $12.50 a pound there is deals out there, they are just few and far between. Primers in St Joe Mo. 30- 32 tax paid, Alliant pistol powers local gun store buys bulk and repacks $12.50 a pound. Rifle $16.50 a pound repack. I've been hoarding since Slick Willie and sugest you do the same. Cause soon the Sh-- is going to hit the fan. Also lead is at .40cent to the pound batterys at .15cent and probaly going up after the new year.
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