happygeek

June 19, 2010, 05:46 PM

The VPC is declaring that a permit holder just murdered 4 people in FL (http://www.vpc.org/press/1006fl.htm) and that this crime brings the number of people killed by permit holders to 170 since May 2007. Now, assuming you believe their number, this is the math I get

roughly 13,000 murders a year for 39,000 murders in 3 years

39,000 murders in 3 years

170 murders by permit holders (using the VPC's numbers)

170/39,000 = 0.00436 or .436% of the murders are committed by permit holders

4,000,000 permit holders (assumed, I seem to remember seeing that estimate somewhere)

300,000,000 population (again, not a hard number)

4/300 = 0.0133 or 1.33% are permit holders

So, we see that even if you believe the VPC, permit holders are still far less likely to commit a murder than the average joe.

To make this math exercise a tad more scientific though, you have to know how many permit holders there are, at least roughly, and know the age of the youngest murderer for that 3 year span (which I just realized I could find in the FBI murder stats). That way you can plug in the population that's over the age of the youngest murderer and the # of permit holders to get a more scientific %.

Please, no flames or merely trash talking the VPC. I'm just looking to get better numbers to plug into the formula so that I can get a more scientific result, using the VPC's own numbers.

My guess is you're going to get more like 2% of the population over the age of the youngest murderer have permits. Which means that 2% of the population committed 0.436% of the murders. Which would mean that a permit holder would be 4.59 times less likely to commit a murder than your average joe, and that's using the VPC's own number.

roughly 13,000 murders a year for 39,000 murders in 3 years

39,000 murders in 3 years

170 murders by permit holders (using the VPC's numbers)

170/39,000 = 0.00436 or .436% of the murders are committed by permit holders

4,000,000 permit holders (assumed, I seem to remember seeing that estimate somewhere)

300,000,000 population (again, not a hard number)

4/300 = 0.0133 or 1.33% are permit holders

So, we see that even if you believe the VPC, permit holders are still far less likely to commit a murder than the average joe.

To make this math exercise a tad more scientific though, you have to know how many permit holders there are, at least roughly, and know the age of the youngest murderer for that 3 year span (which I just realized I could find in the FBI murder stats). That way you can plug in the population that's over the age of the youngest murderer and the # of permit holders to get a more scientific %.

Please, no flames or merely trash talking the VPC. I'm just looking to get better numbers to plug into the formula so that I can get a more scientific result, using the VPC's own numbers.

My guess is you're going to get more like 2% of the population over the age of the youngest murderer have permits. Which means that 2% of the population committed 0.436% of the murders. Which would mean that a permit holder would be 4.59 times less likely to commit a murder than your average joe, and that's using the VPC's own number.