Anybody know a rough number of how many conceal carry permit holders there are?


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happygeek
June 19, 2010, 05:46 PM
The VPC is declaring that a permit holder just murdered 4 people in FL (http://www.vpc.org/press/1006fl.htm) and that this crime brings the number of people killed by permit holders to 170 since May 2007. Now, assuming you believe their number, this is the math I get

roughly 13,000 murders a year for 39,000 murders in 3 years

39,000 murders in 3 years
170 murders by permit holders (using the VPC's numbers)

170/39,000 = 0.00436 or .436% of the murders are committed by permit holders

4,000,000 permit holders (assumed, I seem to remember seeing that estimate somewhere)
300,000,000 population (again, not a hard number)

4/300 = 0.0133 or 1.33% are permit holders

So, we see that even if you believe the VPC, permit holders are still far less likely to commit a murder than the average joe.

To make this math exercise a tad more scientific though, you have to know how many permit holders there are, at least roughly, and know the age of the youngest murderer for that 3 year span (which I just realized I could find in the FBI murder stats). That way you can plug in the population that's over the age of the youngest murderer and the # of permit holders to get a more scientific %.

Please, no flames or merely trash talking the VPC. I'm just looking to get better numbers to plug into the formula so that I can get a more scientific result, using the VPC's own numbers.

My guess is you're going to get more like 2% of the population over the age of the youngest murderer have permits. Which means that 2% of the population committed 0.436% of the murders. Which would mean that a permit holder would be 4.59 times less likely to commit a murder than your average joe, and that's using the VPC's own number.

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KodiakBeer
June 19, 2010, 06:10 PM
There are 600,000 in Alaska alone.

REAPER4206969
June 19, 2010, 06:14 PM
There are 600,000 in Alaska alone.
I see what you did there...

REAPER4206969
June 19, 2010, 06:15 PM
Are they claiming "killed" or "murdered?"

Monkeyleg
June 19, 2010, 07:07 PM
About five years ago the NRA was estimating 7 million.

jfh
June 19, 2010, 07:16 PM
"...So, we see that even if you believe the VPC...."

It's important to deconstruct those VPC numbers as well. I imagine this "170-plus" mass-murders / whatever is built on the "120-plus" numbers they put out some months ago.

In discussions at another board, several of us showed the complete duplicity of those numbers. IIRC, at least 1/3 of these so-called mass-murder homicides had nothing to do with carry permits. So, do some homework here, and the VPC will be shown for what it is.

Jim H.

Trebor
June 19, 2010, 07:19 PM
I think you'd have to track down that info state by state. While some states might not have total figures, I think enough do that you could get a good low end estimate.

Check with the AG for each state. If they don't have it, they should be able to tell you who to ask.

Michigan does release those figures and, without looking it up, IIRC, we have about 225,000 permit holders statewide. The exact figures are in the CPL Reports on the MSP website.

Deus Machina
June 19, 2010, 08:01 PM
It's important to deconstruct those VPC numbers as well.

Also, make sure those are all actual murders--not 'killings', not 'arrested for homicide, awaiting court appointments', that sort of thing. It may not be far off, but it seems they may include every legal self-defense they can.

Monkeyleg
June 20, 2010, 12:02 AM
I think you'd have to track down that info state by state. While some states might not have total figures, I think enough do that you could get a good low end estimate.

Check with the AG for each state. If they don't have it, they should be able to tell you who to ask.

I tried doing that back in 2001. There were more states whose AG's offices had no idea the number of permit holders they had in their states than offices that knew. I finally had to guesstimate. A lot of permits aren't tracked at the state level, but rather at the county level, even if the states are shall-issue.

happygeek
June 20, 2010, 01:38 AM
Oh, I'm sure the VPC's numbers are padded. They say themselves that it's the number who have been charged with manslaughter or murder, not convicted. I'm sure a good number of those manslaughter charges were actually self defense.

The point isn't whether the permit holder even used a firearm or not to commit the murder, the point they're trying to make is that permit holders can't be trusted. Hence, it doesn't matter if the permit holder killed someone with a shovel or a "Saturday night special" for the purposes of this "study".

I'll poke around the VPC's site a bit more later when I have time and see if I can find a number from them on how many permit holders there are nationwide. That'd be a good number to used for the purposes of this math exercise, since I'm using the VPC's 170 murders number.

happygeek
June 21, 2010, 12:37 PM
Can't find even an estimate on the number of concealed carry permit holders nationwide on Google, except for the NRA website that came up, that is. Of course, there's now 3 states that don't even require a permit, and 2 states that flat out don't allow it, so there's only permits in 45 of 50.

Perhaps the VPC didn't throw a number out there because they realized that someone with a little too much time on their hands would run a math exercise like I did, and then beat them over the head with their own numbers.

Patriotme
June 21, 2010, 12:43 PM
250,000 in VA currently.

oldbear
June 21, 2010, 01:00 PM
In discussions at another board, several of us showed the complete duplicity of those numbers. IIRC, at least 1/3 of these so-called mass-murder homicides had nothing to do with carry permits. So, do some homework here, and the VPC will be shown for what it is.

Good start with the information, yet as I remember, the VPC. numbers were a total of people killed by someone who had a concealed weapons permit. They were not broken down into subgroups such as homicides, self-defense, accidental shootings (if you believe in them) suicides, and in one case a car accident. The numbers were worked to provide the data the group wanted.
Remember figures donít lie but liarís sure figure.

Double Naught Spy
June 21, 2010, 02:37 PM
Don't harp on the VPC too much. The NRA cooks their data as well. Both sides claim to be doing what is right and yet both sides misrepresent the information. Something doesn't add up.

M-Cameron
June 21, 2010, 03:21 PM
just looking in the information provided in the .PDF files by the VPC....

...the vast majority of the cases are either pending/ acquitted / dismissed.....

MedWheeler
June 21, 2010, 10:05 PM
Pretty sure Florida has over a million, since it was around 800K in 2008, and well over a million have been issued since 1987. I just don't know how many of the older ones remain valid..
Also, I never heard that P.M. Merhige was a license-holder..

Palehorseman
June 21, 2010, 10:23 PM
Next month, kick in half the population of Arizona, that is when no permit CC kicks in.

jfh
June 24, 2010, 12:12 PM
identifies the current number of carry permits at over 6.2 Million.

"Over the past three years, the number of active permit holders in the United States has gone from about 5 million to more than 6.2 million today. "

Obviously, that number does not include data from the states where no permit is needed.

Here (http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2010/06/23/john-lott-gun-control-brady-campaign-violence-policy-center-defense-shooting/) is the link.

Jim H.

DeputyVaughn
June 25, 2010, 11:48 AM
I did that research once back in the 90's. I found that in Alabama about 1/10th of the eligible population had a permit and about 1/10th of those actually carried on a regular basis.

Scott

Chumango
June 25, 2010, 09:32 PM
Approximately 5% of the population of TN has a permit.

I once read (a few months ago?) a summary of crimes supposedly committed by permit holders, I don't recall which anti-gun group published it. Someone sent it to me trying to argue about permit holders not necessarily being law-abiding citizens. The vast majority of the cases described in the piece had nothing to do with permit holders. It was a fluff piece attempting to win an argument by using invalid numbers.

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