Dust Off Your Chrystal Ball


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Ky Larry
July 3, 2010, 10:14 AM
There seems to be plenty of ammo on the shelves and on line. Primers and other reloading components are available.Prices are starting to moderate. A few online sources are even having over stock reduction sales. The end of the ammo Obamanation may be ending. Anyone care to predict where prices and availability will be in 6-12 months? Will we see prices closer to past levels? Will the withdrawal of our troops in the middle east free up a lot of manufacturing capacity? Just curious what you think.

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cbrgator
July 3, 2010, 10:18 AM
My guess is it will be about the same.

danprkr
July 3, 2010, 10:59 AM
My guess is it will be about the same.

+ 5% to 10% Don't forget in that year we've had some inflation, and probably added a net increase of shooters to the demand pool.

22-rimfire
July 3, 2010, 11:05 AM
I don't see any major changes in availability unless the gun control movement gains strength within Congress. All bets are off if a restrictive bill ("reasonable gun control") is taken out of committee and pushed by the President. This could happen since the last Supreme Court decision has been made. The decisions provide a foundation for the creation of "reasonable gun control" legislation at both a state and national level.

oldbear
July 3, 2010, 05:52 PM
I like everyone else here is giving an educated guess, but my quess is supply and prices will remain at current levels. It is simple supply and demand, if the ammunition manufactures keep the supply at current levels, and options (bullet style and weights) somewhat limited they will be able to continue to charge a small premium for their product, which as we all know increases the company’s profits. Yet the supply will not be so limited that we start complaining, and ammunition will not be so expensive that most folks will start to limit their shooting. And lastly folks such as myself will keep buying ammo instead of using up our stash.

huntsman
July 3, 2010, 07:16 PM
Anyone care to predict where prices and availability will be in 6-12 months?

if we continue to see deflation and reduced demand in the commodities then I would think prices should fall, but after the last few years who knows.

308win
July 3, 2010, 07:25 PM
I believe the only thing that could move prices significantly lower for .223 and 9mm would be for the DOD to dump a lot of ammunition on the surplus market. I don't see Obama doing that; if fact it wouldn't surprise me if there is a surplus to see him junk it or sell it on the international market.

ThePunisher'sArmory
July 3, 2010, 07:26 PM
Could not have said it better oldbear.

Larry Ashcraft
July 3, 2010, 07:29 PM
I don't see Obama doing that; if fact it wouldn't surprise me if there is a surplus to see him junk it or sell it on the international market.
Wait a minute. Are you saying that the president of the United States personally decides what to do with surplus ammunition? Doesn't he have larger issues to deal with?

Fremmer
July 3, 2010, 07:47 PM
Will the withdrawal of our troops in the middle east free up a lot of manufacturing capacity? Just curious what you think.

I don't think there will be a significant withdrawal of troops in the middle east in the next two to three years.

Dunno if that helps answer the question, though. Sorry, there's a crack in my crystal ball. I knew I should have ordered the titanium model! :D

oneounceload
July 3, 2010, 08:56 PM
It would all depend on how the world economy is doing and whether China needs the raw components for making everything we seem to want to buy. The number one use for lead is car batteries. China's rising middle class are starting to create the market as evidenced by the fact that GM car sales were positive in China and negative here. Add in India's growing middle class and the release of the Tata car, and the demand for lead will skyrocket as will its availability for bullets decline - this will lead to increases in ammo prices, not a decline. This should happen in the next few years, not immediately, so prices may temporarily drop somewhat. Of course, that drop will depend on what the current admin will do once the oil spill in the Gulf is off the front page. Look for subterfuge in upcoming legislation, similar to the health care bill that no one has read or even knows what is in it.............

YMMV

Walkalong
July 3, 2010, 09:16 PM
If the dems maintain control in November, and it looks like they have gotten enough people on taxpayers handouts to re-elect o, it could go in the crapper again.

So, I think we are in a window of opportunity that is close to being fully open, and will continue to improve for 3 or 4 months. Anything could happen after that.

But I have no crystal ball, and could be terribly wrong.

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