Alarmist AP article on guns very alarming!


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cougfan
September 27, 2010, 04:28 AM
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ijpM_MlZkqOYXtwdulL1yxIXolXwD9IFVN7O2
(http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5ijpM_MlZkqOYXtwdulL1yxIXolXwD9IFVN7O2)

Report: 10 states sell half of imported crime guns
(AP) – 4 hours ago

WASHINGTON — Nearly half of the guns that crossed state lines and were used in crimes in 2009 were sold in just 10 states, according to a report being released Monday by a mayors' group.
Those states accounted for nearly 21,000 guns connected to crimes in other states, said the survey by Mayors Against Illegal Guns, an association of more than 500 mayors led by New York's Michael Bloomberg and Boston's Thomas Menino.
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives traced more than 145,000 guns used in crimes in 2009 and found that more than 43,000 of those weapons were sold in other states.
Forty-nine percent of those guns were sold in Georgia, Florida, Virginia, Texas, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, California or Arizona.

I read this article, and being an accountant and a real stickler for statistics, I fired up Excel and google and found a wikipedia entry with some easy to use population statistics*. This article says that slightly less than 30% of guns used in crimes were originally purchased in a state other than the one in which they were used and presumably recovered in connection with a crime. So 43,000 out of 145,000 "crime guns" were imported. Shockingly nearly half (48.8%, generously since the article rounded up a couple of times) of those 43,000 imported "crime guns" came from just 10 states. Those 10 states, their populations estimated in 2009 by the US Census Bureau, make up 46.4% of our nations populace. This hardly seems like any sort of major gun running pipeline like the article makes it out to be. People move, guns are stolen and people commit crimes. The only states that are at the top in terms population numbers yet not on the list of top "crime gun" exporters are New York and Illinois, both of which seem to be infamous for higher instances of gun crime, both of which have hugely restrictive gun laws and both of which most likely had a hand in issuing this press release disguised as news.

Check out http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/html/home/home.shtml to see the report in its original context and see if your city's mayor is against illegal guns (no brainer, no one wants more gun crime). I just hope paying a think tank a bunch of money to fiddle with FBI statistics isn't going to change public opinion. Hopefully your mayor didn't chip in your $ for this groundbreaking report.

*http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

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mnrivrat
September 27, 2010, 05:05 AM
This hardly seems like any sort of major gun running pipeline like the article makes it out to be. People move, guns are stolen and people commit crimes. The only states that are at the top in terms population numbers yet not on the list of top "crime gun" exporters are New York and Illinois, both of which seem to be infamous for higher instances of gun crime, both of which have hugely restrictive gun laws and both of which most likely had a hand in issuing this press release disguised as news.

And hardly surprising as well, when concidering the source.

cougfan
September 27, 2010, 05:07 AM
The New York Times took this article and ran with it. See their take here http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/27/us/politics/27guns.html.

It seems like the state of New York (and NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who heads the alliance of mayors against illegal guns and most likely paid for this statistical squaredance) should just erect borders and search everyone coming in, or greatly increase the penalties faced by New York residents for buying guns they can't legally own and committing crimes with them. But hey if I had a billion dollars I would try to push my political agenda every way I could too, I just hope more mayors look past the title of this organization and see what it really is into; which is a public relations campaign to make stricter gun laws nationwide. Why can't we all just agree that using a gun to commit a crime (ie. robbery, murder; not owning a handgun) should cost you the hand you used to harm society?

MinnMooney
September 27, 2010, 06:10 AM
Statistics can be and are used to prove just about anything.

Those mayors probably went through land area, population, ethnic groups, gender and religious affiliations until they hit upon something that could be construed to "prove" their point.

Sgt_R
September 27, 2010, 07:11 AM
50% of 'crime guns' come from just 10 states? I'd be willing to bet that 50% of those same 'crime guns' were used in just 2 states: New York and Illinois. Of course, that couldn't possibly indicate that those two states have a problem; naturally, it's easier to blame your trouble on the other guy.

"All of our criminals are really well behaved, honest. If other states would just stop selling them guns, I'm sure they'd see the error of their ways and go on to become healthy, productive members of society."

R

rattletrap1970
September 27, 2010, 07:17 AM
I thought it interesting that several of the States listed have ridiculous gun laws as it is, and apparently they don't help... Imagine that.. <Sarcasm LOL

herkyguy
September 27, 2010, 08:21 AM
nice work by COUGFAN delving into the numbers. That's how we best disprove these myths...

merlinfire
September 27, 2010, 10:33 AM
All of our criminals are really well behaved, honest. If other states would just stop selling them guns, I'm sure they'd see the error of their ways and go on to become healthy, productive members of society.

I LOL'ed. Well played sir.

VinnAY
September 27, 2010, 10:59 AM
89% of all stats are made up.

Deanimator
September 27, 2010, 11:19 AM
Remember the "backward masking" crisis in the 1980s, trumpeted by hysterical televangelists? This is "backward masking" for anti-gunners. It will amount to as much.

They're going to keep flailing and lashing out, but like Holocaust deniers, they've permanently marginalized themselves with their dishonesty and more importantly, the consistent failure of EVERY dire prediction of "blood in the streets".

USMC - Retired
September 27, 2010, 11:37 AM
Good work cougfan!

I have an interview with a local Fox News affiliate this morning concerning this very report and GCO's take on it. I will definately make sure to point out the info you have brought to light.

Thanks!

EddieNFL
September 27, 2010, 11:43 AM
89% of all stats are made up.
...and 93 percent of the people know that.

Cosmoline
September 27, 2010, 01:51 PM
Good work crunching the numbers.

This is the same old song and dance. Just as the corrupt and essentially non-functional Mexican government blames US gun laws for its problems, the corrupt mayors the urban wastes blame their problems on gun laws of other states.

DoubleTapDrew
September 27, 2010, 02:18 PM
I, for one, am shocked the group is not in favor of amnesty for these "illegal guns". They are just doing the jobs that legal guns don't or won't do.

Omaha-BeenGlockin
September 27, 2010, 02:25 PM
Mayors against illegal guns and Bloomberg is all you have to know---to where a flawed cooked up piece is going to lead you by the nose.

Move along---nothing to see here.

KBintheSLC
September 27, 2010, 03:42 PM
said the survey by Mayors Against Illegal Guns

Can anyone really take these guys seriously?

SharpsDressedMan
September 27, 2010, 04:37 PM
If you analyze the statistics to read "At one time during their lifetime, 21 070 (that is 49% of the 43,000 number listed above) guns from 10 of some our heavily populated states (averaging about 2107 apiece for those 10 states) ended up in crimes in other states than they were originally sold in." I wonder how many were LEGALLY moved from one state to another, along with the original or subsequent owners. I wonder how many were STOLEN in one state and illegally brought to another (should my state of Ohio be punished if crooks from NYC come here and burglarize guns for sale on NYC streets? I think not!). If my math is correct, 2107 guns for each of the averaged 10 states mentioned is about 1.5% of the total guns used in crimes. What is the issue? That 10 populated states, most of which have lesser gun restrictions that New York or California contribute about 15% of the TOTAL gun used in crimes? Since we have 50 states, and each could average 2%, I'd say that 10 gun-lenient states only contributing 15% total is pretty good. The report isn't telling us how many INDIGINOUSLY sold guns were used in each state's crimes, i.e. how many New York guns were used in NY crimes. If we were not inclined to THINK about such smears and claims, the gun haters could mess with us. It just confirms how desperate they are.

JR47
September 27, 2010, 04:58 PM
The true problem is in the fact that many people haven't the time, or the ambition, to actually check the math on these "reports". They take them at face value.

What is sorely lacking is a reference value for how long those guns were "in the system", reported lost or stolen, sold, or the owners moved INTO the state requesting the trace. A gun bought in 1979, for example, could have come into the state in question in 1980, been stolen in 2010, and used in a crime. The trace data ends at the initial sales point, in 1979.

This lack of time reference throws the entire statistic into disarray.

lonegunman
September 27, 2010, 05:23 PM
I wish these coke snorting democrats would go away. All of their dope, herion, coke, meth and crack crosses state lines. If they would stop abusing drugs 24/7/365 the demand would drop and the trafficking would slow about 90%.

The former president of Mexico once said, they would not have a smuggling problem if the millions of dope fiends in America would take a break from their lust for drugs.

Vern Humphrey
September 27, 2010, 06:13 PM
A wise man once said, "Figures don't lie, but liars can figure."

MikeNice
September 27, 2010, 06:17 PM
This is typical for anti-gun nuts.

"It isn't our fault. It isn't even the criminal's fault. It is those blood thirsty gun owners. They are destroying our fine citys."

They seem to ignore the fact that when the law abiding citizens are armed and can fight back the crime rates fall.

According to the site Gun Facts,
Thirty-nine states282, comprising the majority of the American population, are
"right-to-carry" states. Statistics show that in these states the crime rate fell (or did not
rise) after the right-to-carry law became active (as of July, 2006). Nine states restrict the right to carry and two deny it outright.

also

Fact: Though the number of firearms owned by private citizens has been increasing steadily since 1970, the overall rate of homicides and suicides has not risen. As the chart shows, there is no correlation between the availability of firearms and the rates of homicide and suicide in America

If these municipalities want to be as safe as the ten states they list, they should ease their own restrictions.

shotgunjoel
September 27, 2010, 06:24 PM
....

FIVETWOSEVEN
September 27, 2010, 06:34 PM
Originally Posted by VinnAY
89% of all stats are made up.

...and 93 percent of the people know that.
That is 41% true.

MikeNice
September 27, 2010, 06:41 PM
I just wanted to toss a quote from a Mafia hitman in to the thread. To me it shows why these people are fighting against logic.



MAFIA INFORMANT SAMMY "THE BULL" GRAVANO
"Gun control? It's the best thing you can do for crooks and gangsters. I want you to
have nothing. If I'm a bad guy, I'm always gonna have a gun. Safety locks? You
will pull the trigger with a lock on, and I'll pull the trigger. We'll see who wins."

Old krow
September 27, 2010, 06:42 PM
Statistics is a sticky subject.

My personal favorite is "50% of all marriages end in divorce, the other 50%, well, they end in death." It makes it sounds really bad, but it's the truth.

If we wanted to mess with those guys, then we should go on the offensive and we should be cranking out studies and show them just how much the guns do help.

The true problem is in the fact that many people haven't the time, or the ambition, to actually check the math on these "reports". They take them at face value.

True. Statisticians generally post all of their info with their reports so that they can't be disputed. Other statisticians check them, the rest of us don't.

yokel
September 27, 2010, 08:20 PM
It goes without saying that domestic enemies of liberty, our homegrown anti-patriots like Bloomberg and Menino, must be stopped at all costs. Their neosocialist ideology threatens the future of all freedom-loving people. They are a bad omen for those of us who take exception to replacing the Constitution with a system closer to mob rule.

moccasin
September 27, 2010, 09:24 PM
Read the trace data from ATF used for the report. Page 2 of each report says that not all firearms are traced and of those that are not all of them were used in a crime. Also doesn't tell how/why a gun crossed state lines, could have been bought in one state and the owner moved then it was stolen. Information conviently ignored by MAIG and Brady Campaign (they released a similar report a while back)

http://www.atf.gov/statistics/trace-data/2009-trace-data.html

unspellable
September 27, 2010, 09:40 PM
4 out of 3 people have trouble with statistics.

merlinfire
September 28, 2010, 03:26 PM
Quote:
said the survey by Mayors Against Illegal Guns
Can anyone really take these guys seriously?

Because other mayors are for illegal guns?

Guess what? 99.9% of the pro-gun community is a big fan of following the law.

This always gets me.

trueg50
September 28, 2010, 06:00 PM
What about Vermont, huh AP?

We have about the loosest gun laws, yet there aren't horrendous killings in MA or NY from our firearms. Though we are also tight wads when it comes to firearms, and we don't give them up without a hefty price.

Ky Larry
September 28, 2010, 06:17 PM
Over 100 years ago, Mark Twain said:" There are lies, damn lies, and statistics." The more things change, the more they stay the same.:rolleyes:

azyogi
September 28, 2010, 07:02 PM
I have tried to find out the nature of these gun crimes. If a legal gun gets taken to someplace it's illegal to have a gun does it then automaticly become a crime gun?

Leanwolf
September 28, 2010, 09:45 PM
Has anyone noticed how many MegaMillionaire Marxists and Billionaire Bolsheviks of the ruling elite, incessantly seek to (eventually) confiscate the firearms of us serfs and worker peasants? :fire:

L.W.

millertyme
September 28, 2010, 09:56 PM
Why can't we all just agree that using a gun to commit a crime (ie. robbery, murder; not owning a handgun) should cost you the hand you used to harm society?


I believe it's called the 8th Amendment...

millertyme
September 28, 2010, 09:57 PM
I, too, would like to find out the percentage of those illegal, border-crossing crime guns are used in California, New York, Illinois, and Washington, D.C.

If it was less than 80% I would be very surprised.

Carl N. Brown
October 5, 2010, 10:14 AM
MAIG Report

The ten states that are the alleged source of 49% of crime guns represent 51% of the US population, and include California one of the strictest gun law states. What MAIG likes to sell is the idea that these 10 states should represent 10% of guns in circulation, and the fact that they represent 49% is supposed to be sinister. If these ten states represent 51% of the population, they could easily represent 51% of the guns in circulation (legal or illegal), so 49% is not disproportionate.

As pointed out above, the ATF trace data is not "guns used in crime". The BATF states: "Not all firearms used in crimes are traced and not all firearms traced are used in crime. Firearms selected for tracing aren’t chosen for purposes of determining which types, makes or models of firearms are used for illicit purposes. The firearms selected don’t constitute a random sample and should not be considered representative of the larger universe of all firearms used by criminals, or any subset of that universe. . . .[S]ources reported for firearms traced do not necessarily represent the sources or methods by which firearms in general are acquired for use in crime." ATF traces guns for a variety of regulatory purposes, not just criminal law enforcement. Perhaps one or more of these states runs a lot of ATF traces for regulatory purposes.

Onmilo
October 5, 2010, 10:25 AM
I guess gun dealers in those ten states must be hugely stupid, gullible, or greedy because you wouldn't believe the number of people who attempt to strawman guns in Illinois gunshops and are turned away.

Rare is the bird who walks into a gun shop downstate and asks for "Ten Wasr AK rifles, Five Hi-point .40 caliber pistols, and four Mossberg riot guns." while reading from a printed list that isn't going to have shop helpers and proprietors alike start asking a whole bunch of questions.

When a 21 year old girl comes in and asks for, "A Hi-Point 9mm", "Lorcin", "Cobray" or "I want the one that was third from left in the case last week" but can't tell you the make or even caliber, we tend to know what is going on and the sale is refused.

Seriously, I can understand pure greed, but these jackwads don't even try to buy high dollar stuff.
It is always crap guns they want and the ignorance of exactly what they are trying to buy is telling.

Guillermo
October 5, 2010, 10:30 AM
why would anyone buy a gun at retail (I could stop the sentence there) if selling it (legally or illegally) is the goal?

Carl N. Brown
October 5, 2010, 10:31 AM
MAIG was formed 25 Apr 2006 at Gracie Mansion NYC, and includes Boston Mayor Thomas Menino, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley, Washington DC Mayor Adrian Fenty. Fenty and Daley defended the gun bans knocked down by SCOTUS in the Heller 2008 and [b]McDonald[/i] 2010 decisions. The NYC enforcement of the Sullivan Act pistol permit law has been described as a violation of NY state constitution on "due process" and "equal justice under the law" (Suzanne Novak in Fordham Law Review). MAIG ought to be renamed Mostly Democrat Mayors for Arbitrarily Making All Guns Illegal.

happygeek
October 19, 2010, 09:02 PM
I just got around to reading MAIG's Trace the Guns "report" and hit issues almost immediately. The second sentence of the thing states very matter of factly


These firearms contribute to the more than 12,000 gun murders in the United States each year.


Yet checking the FBI's site we see that there was only 10,100 - 10,200 some gun murders from 2005 - 07 and that in 2008 it dropped to 9,528 and in 2009 dropped further to 9,146 (http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/expanded_information/data/documents/09shrtbl08.xls) :confused:

Moving a tad further down the first page we see


Gun traces reveal how, where, and by whom each individual crime gun was originally purchased.


I put the originally purchased in italics to draw attention to it. I thought I was reading it wrong; surely they mean the last time the gun legally changed hands on paper. Yet on the next page we see again


the states where those crime guns were originally sold


Again on page 4


In the process, ATF identifies the state where the gun was first sold at retail (“source state”) and the state where the crime gun was recovered at a crime scene (“recovery state”).


So let's say I buy a shotgun in WA state, move to Oregon, sell the shotgun to an Oregon state resident through a FFL, and then later the local cops raid the buyer's place because he was growing weed in the backwoods and during the raid they find the shotgun in a closet. The local cops will submit the serial number [and test fired bullet and casing if it's a rifle or pistol] on up to the BATFE and see if they get a hit for it having been used in a crime or stolen.

That trace would have been part of MAIG's "study". Not only would it have been included in their "study" since it was originally sold in one state and then turned up in another, they keep using the phrases "trafficked" and "crime guns" even though in my example the shotgun was neither trafficked nor sold illegally.

Furthermore on page 4 we see this:


In 2009, of the 238,107 guns that were recovered at crime scenes in the U.S. and submitted for tracing, ATF successfully identified the source states for 145,321 traced guns – or 61% of the attempted traces. As the chart below shows, 43,254 of these guns, or 30%, crossed state lines before they were recovered in crimes.


So this "50% of the crime guns" is a fraction of a fraction of a fraction.
50% of 43,254
43,254 of 145,321
145,321 of 238,107

Let's not forget that the 238,107 is itself a fraction: 238,107 out of the estimated 300 some million firearms in the U.S. (238,107 / 300,000,000 = 0.000794 or 0.0794% of the guns in the U.S. were "crime guns").

50% of 43,254 is 21,627; which means that 21,627 [# of guns that originated in the top ten states] out of 145,321 [# of successful traces] means that 14.88% of the guns that were successfully traced originated in the top ten export states. Remember, this is if you accept MAIG's data, which is already flawed as pointed out earlier.

As someone pointed out earlier, those ten states make up a LOT more than 14.88% of the U.S.'s population, so it's not all that shocking. Honestly, I'd say what's more surprising about this "report" is that 70.24% of the traces were from in state sources, especially considering how people move around these days and people are always selling used guns to out of state sources through a FFL.

After wasting my time on this "report", the one burning question I was left with was "why didn't they just report on the results of the traces ran on the stock at time of arrest of a dude who was selling handguns out of the trunk of his Chevy in gang areas?".

Ole Coot
October 19, 2010, 09:13 PM
Ole Bloomer's boys kinda got in trouble in WV and got their butts in a sling. Think they might have learned something and we were No. 1 on his list until they messed with gun shows and our politicians. Ain't popular around here or KY either.

Hardtarget
October 19, 2010, 11:48 PM
There are some important things to remember about statistics.

They are just like bikinis in that...
1...what they show is interesting.
2...what they hide is critical.

Makes me grin when I think about that.

Mark

elcaminoariba
October 20, 2010, 12:00 AM
Guns are the last thing that is honestly made in USA (stuff that claims to be made in America is usually partially chinese). These states who are exporting this legally purchased product are helping to keep jobs in my country.

happygeek
October 20, 2010, 12:05 AM
There are some important things to remember about statistics.

They are just like bikinis in that...
1...what they show is interesting.
2...what they hide is critical.

Makes me grin when I think about that.

Mark


It does depend on the stats though. For example, according to the FBI there was something like 348 homicides committed with rifles in 2009. That's a pretty solid stat, not really anything to twist there. There was 9,500 something gun homicides in 2008 which dropped to 9,100 something in 2009 [the 2007 number was more like 10,100 firearms homicides].

Now where it gets tricky is when you try and claim that the numbers changed because of one particular thing, especially when you're making that claim to push your agenda. For all we know there was a major gang war in 2007 but the gangs made a truce in 08, hence the murder drop. Somebody pushing the socialist agenda might claim the drop was due to some welfare program. We'd be quick to point out that the drop correlated with increased gun sales, especially sales of Evil Black Rifles.

Point is, since the gun control groups can't point to even a casual correlation between gun sales and gun murders in recent years or a correlation between state gun control laws and state murder rates [at least not a correlation that looks good for them], they're stuck with trumpeting a fraction of a fraction of a fraction or a correlation between state gun laws and gun deaths [which includes everything from suicides to people shot by the cops].

The funny thing is that the freaking [i]second sentence of MAIG's "study" states something that is just flat out demonstratively false: claiming that there's 12,000 some gun homicides a year when the FBI stats show 10,100 and dropping. Maybe their counting justifiable homicides by police and citizens? :confused:

russ69
October 20, 2010, 12:17 AM
"10 states sell half of imported crime guns"

Let me fix this: 10 states have half the US population. There it's fixed. Duh

P.S. Here's a better one: Most of US population live or work near big cities.......Double Duh

Carl N. Brown
October 20, 2010, 05:28 AM
Those ten states have 51% of the population. Randomly about half of the guns diverted to criminal hands would come from those states. Nothing unusual about the states, but the use of that stat is strange. The other half of the guns come from 40 states representing 49% of the population. Isn't that what one would call a random distribution?

Gun traces reveal how, where, and by whom each individual crime gun was originally purchased.

On its trace data, the ATF warns that (a) not all crime guns are traced and (b) not all traces are of crime guns. ATF traces guns for reasons other than crime use: one part of ATF is a regulatory taxing agency and they do gather data on gun markets having nothing to do with crime. And on crime guns NOT each individual crime gun is traced.

MAIG's "data" is scarcely improved over classic anti-gun Carl Bakal, a Madison Avenue Advertising executive who wrote "This Very Day a Gun May Kill You" 1959 and "No Right to Bear Arms" 1966. Library Journal nailed Bakal's book as full of truths, half-truths, insinuations and painfully obvious bias.

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