Component Pricing Trends?


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Brian10
February 9, 2011, 06:04 PM
I've noticed that the price of loaded ammunition is slowly going down. As a general rule, I would think that the cost of the components must stay within the same ratio to be competitive.

Can someone with industry knowledge help me to predict what to buy now and what I can wait on? This is what I've been noticing:

Primers: prices have been steadily falling. Wolf and CCI can be found for $15-$20 per 1000

Powder: prices have been stable. No noticeable change in prices in the last couple of years

Bullet: prices have been stable or have gone slightly up. This component is directly tied to the metals market.

What is likely to continue falling, start rising, or stay the same?

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Peter M. Eick
February 9, 2011, 06:16 PM
No insider knowledge but supply and demand is slowly kicking in.

My econ teacher (now over 25 years ago) taught us prices go up quickly then ratchet their way down slowly. You are seeing the ratcheting.

Powder will not get really cheap because it is an oil/gas based product. Oil and gas are reasonably priced now and don't have downward pressure on them. Thus I expect the propellant prices to stay stable.

In the long run, prices will rise quickly when inflation kicks in. Only a matter of when.

capreppy
February 9, 2011, 07:39 PM
Guess I need to stock up now on supplies...LOL

Newbie .45ACP reloader and will do my first batch this weekend. Bought a bunch of bullets to see what feeds and shoots well in my weapon (SA XDm .45ACP) and then I'll buy a boat load of components to tie me over. I've got 1K in brass at home now and just had 2K in brass delivered this afternoon (I'm away from home on Biz so won't see it until I get home on Friday night).

Also have a gun show to go to on Saturday and looking forward to seeing how low the pricing is at Gun Shows compared to internet pricing at e-tailers like Powder Valley.

bds
February 10, 2011, 12:13 AM
Gun Shows compared to internet pricing at e-tailers like Powder Valley.
The gun show I attended in Southern California two weekends ago had fairly decent prices. These were some of the best of show prices:

$19/1 lb for many popular powders - Unique, Titegroup, Clays, Universal, W231/HP38, etc. Most other Alliant, Hodgdon, Winchester, AA, IMR powders were $25-$27ish. Many 4 lb Alliant powders for $75. Best price for 8 lb of my favorite W231 was $144 + sales tax.

I think if you are buying in 8 lb containers or doing a combined group buy to spread the HazMat/shipping charges, Powder Valley prices are hard to beat. They are selling Alliant 4 lb containers for $54 and 8 lb containers for $98. HP38 (same as W231) is $108 for 8 lbs ... even with $25 HazMat fee + $12 shipping charge, that's only about $145, cheaper than $144 + sales tax + $12 gun show entrance fee = $167.

Of course, if you are buying 8 lb Alliant powders for $98, it would be $98 + $25 HazMat + $12 = about $135.

capreppy
February 10, 2011, 12:30 AM
The gun show I attended in Southern California two weekends ago had fairly decent prices. These were some of the best of show prices:

$19/1 lb for many popular powders - Unique, Titegroup, Clays, Universal, W231/HP38, etc. Most other Alliant, Hodgdon, Winchester, AA, IMR powders were $25-$27ish. Many 4 lb Alliant powders for $75. Best price for 8 lb of my favorite W231 was $144 + sales tax.

I think if you are buying in 8 lb containers or doing a combined group buy to spread the HazMat/shipping charges, Powder Valley prices are hard to beat. They are selling Alliant 4 lb containers for $54 and 8 lb containers for $98. HP38 (same as W231) is $108 for 8 lbs ... even with $25 HazMat fee + $12 shipping charge, that's only about $145, cheaper than $144 + sales tax + $12 gun show entrance fee = $167.

Of course, if you are buying 8 lb Alliant powders for $98, it would be $98 + $25 HazMat + $12 = about $135.
I am looking at Powder Valley for Primers & Powder. I need a 1lb container of HP38 just to get me started this weekend while I load my first batch (ever!!). Once I get the hang of it and see if HP38 is all that is everything that everyone says about it, I'll purchase the 8lb container.

I've got 400 bullets from a few different vendors and am going to try them out and see what shoots/feeds best out of my weapon. I'll see if I can find some other bullets while there.

bds
February 10, 2011, 09:06 AM
Once I get the hang of it and see if HP38 is all that is everything that everyone says about it, I'll purchase the 8lb container.
When I help set up new reloaders, I start them out with 8 lb of HP38/W231 as it is a very well metering flattened ball powder that produces very accurate loads and clean burning. You can find plenty of load data for just about all semi-auto pistol and most revolver calibers in bullet types/weights. For someone new to reloading, HP38/W231 has more broader load range than most other powders to allow for more "head room" or buffer range when using mid to high range load data where most of us end up finding our accurate loads. If you want to produce target loads, at start to mid-range load data, it produces milder, less snappy recoil than faster burning popular powders like Alliant's Bullseye.

It is particularly accurate powder for 45ACP, 40S&W and 9mm that maintains accuracy from high range load data down to starting charges. At $108 for 8 lbs, it is one of the more economical powders too. Most charges you will use for semi-auto cartridges will be around 4.X-5.X grains per round instead of 5.X-6.X+ grains for more slower burning powder.

I would suggest you get the 8 lb container.

USSR
February 10, 2011, 10:28 AM
Can someone with industry knowledge help me to predict what to buy now and what I can wait on? This is what I've been noticing:

Primers: prices have been steadily falling. Wolf and CCI can be found for $15-$20 per 1000

Powder: prices have been stable. No noticeable change in prices in the last couple of years

Bullet: prices have been stable or have gone slightly up. This component is directly tied to the metals market.

What is likely to continue falling, start rising, or stay the same?

Now is the time to buy primers in particular. The price is as low as it ever will be. Powder Valley has a special going on where they will pay for the HazMat fee and shipping with a 10,000 Tula primer order. I remember guys selling 1,000 primers for $70 at gun shows just a year or two ago during the primer shortage. The price of powder has been little effected in recent years, although the supply has been spotty at times. Bullets? You may want to consider taking up casting. This is where the real savings is.

Don

cheygriz
February 10, 2011, 10:48 PM
If you can't afford to buy in bulk, then every payday buy 1 or 2K primers and/or a pound of powder. In a year or two, you won't have to worry about it.

Better yet, get in on a group buy. :)

HKIWB
February 11, 2011, 11:29 AM
Go ahead and buy a pound of HP38/Win231 if you are unsure. That will load more than 1,200 rounds of mid-range .45 ACP loads, and by the time its gone you'll likely be hooked. It produces great accuracy accross a wide range of loads. It leaves less fouling than most factory ammo, but it can be a little smokey coming out of a .45 when loaded at the low end of the range. Its all I use in .45 and 9mm because it meters well, shoots well and fills the case such that it is easy to see an off charge.

BeerSleeper
February 11, 2011, 01:23 PM
Primers: prices have been steadily falling. Wolf and CCI can be found for $15-$20 per 1000

Where?

USSR
February 11, 2011, 01:29 PM
^^^^^ - Powder Valley Tula primers are $20 per 1,000.

Don

BeerSleeper
February 11, 2011, 01:47 PM
And their wolf are $15/1K. I'm looking for the CCI at $20 or less. (PV had them at $25, I think)

bds
February 11, 2011, 01:51 PM
Primers: prices have been steadily falling. Wolf and CCI can be found for $15-$20 per 1000
Where?
Widener's has Wolf SP primers for $15.50/1000 (http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=570734&page=2) and $15/1000 if you buy the 5K case. Cabela's has CCI SR primers for $20/1000 (http://www.cabelas.com/catalog/product.jsp?productId=731748&categoryId=0&parentCategoryId=0&subCategoryId=0&indexId=0&itemGUID=15516c9aac107058289e637ecad7a1c5&destination=%2Fuser%2Forder_details.cmd%3Fid%3D1ZslmPipLmo%3D%26key%3Ddf0d003aac107058508e7ef576d1e6ae). Powder Valley has Wolf SP, LP, SR, 223 primers for $15/1000. (http://www.powdervalleyinc.com/)

More sales items on this thread (http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?t=570734&page=2).

Brian10
February 14, 2011, 11:26 AM
This was recently posted on Powder Valley's Facebook page:

Powder Valley: Price Increase: There will be price changes in the near future. With the continued increase in metals prices we anticipate a sizable increase in bullet and brass prices in the near future. We will also be updating prices with year end manufacturer price increases.

Last week I made a fairly sizeable purchase in bullets, so I think I made the right choice.

Bush Pilot
February 14, 2011, 11:51 AM
A friend of mine co-owns a sizeable ammo company. He said the wholesalers at SHOT told him to be looking for a minimum of a 10-15% price increase this spring.

It's funny, his company produces tens of millions of rounds of ammo annually and they are having trouble getting SP primers in large quantities (20 million at a time)

capreppy
February 14, 2011, 01:39 PM
I've purchased 4K .45ACP Brass & 3K 9mm Luger Brass in the last two weeks. I guess with the price increases, I may need to stock up on Primers & Bullets as well.

NeuseRvrRat
February 15, 2011, 03:05 PM
He said the wholesalers at SHOT told him to be looking for a minimum of a 10-15% price increase this spring.


self-fulfilling prophecy :(

cheygriz
February 15, 2011, 07:58 PM
Primers always disappear first in a shortage. Stock up on primers first. then powder. Then bullets. Brass you can always scrounge.

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