In your opinion, the AWB will:


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Jack19
January 5, 2004, 08:57 AM
After the current AWB sunsets, what's your opinion about what will happen?

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Lone_Gunman
January 5, 2004, 09:17 AM
Spineless Republicans will not stand up to the media blitz. Polls will show 65% of the citizens support renewal, and the Repubs will cave in to pass "popular" legislation.

After all, these are assault weapons designed for one purpose, killing large numbers of school children by spraying the area down while shooting from the hip. The media is going to play this aspect up.

Moparmike
January 5, 2004, 09:48 AM
I hate to be so cynical, but political reality is as it is. Until the political pendulum starts back towards conservatism (ever swinging between the two), we will be stuck with it. Hopefully revolution will not be needed at any point.

RocketMan
January 5, 2004, 09:51 AM
Anybody want to buy my Garand or M1 Carbine?
If I understand things correctly, they will be illegal to own when the new ban passes.
And it will pass, in both houses, with a large margin I suspect.
And the Bush will sign it.

lycanthrope
January 5, 2004, 10:27 AM
The AW ban is paramount in gun forums, but the general voting public has no concept of what it does or why it is in place.

To them, it will sound like a good idea when it comes to pass.

I had thought that with the reality of an attack on our own soil (9/11) that the general public would feel warmer towards those of us who are for firearms freedoms. Instead of supporting the USA's civilian guard, the people figure that the AW ban will make it harder for terrorists to obtain guns.

Dangerous thinking.

I hope Joe Schmoe in Congress never figures out that buy taking more .223 assualt rifles off the street, that the Remington semi-auto in 30-06 that you can buy at any Wal Mart looks better and better to criminals......

gabeodog
January 5, 2004, 03:25 PM
Spineless Republicans will not stand up to the media blitz. Polls will show 65% of the citizens support renewal, and the Repubs will cave in to pass "popular" legislation.

Diddo.

Pebcac
January 5, 2004, 03:41 PM
Third option missing: current AWB made permanent.

I doubt very seriously that the current bill, that contains restrictions on firearms such as the Garand and Carbine by name, will pass. IMHO, this bill is a smokescreen for a bill that will make the current law permanent, which will be called a "compromise bill."

One more nail in the coffin.

BHPshooter
January 5, 2004, 03:42 PM
Anybody want to buy my Garand or M1 Carbine?

If you're serious, then yeah, I'll go for your Garand. :D Somehow I don't think you're serious, though. ;)

However, before I get really paranoid, I'm going to wait a month or two and start blitzing my reps with mail. During that time, I'll save my money and buy a couple of guns if things look really bad.

I currently am not informed enough to vote intelligently, so I won't take part in the poll.

Wes

labgrade
January 5, 2004, 04:11 PM
Yeah!

I know it'sonly the first days of the New Congress, & yeah! I know, I know ...

But.

Seems like our pro-gunner-groupswould be beating the air-waves where-aboutsto inform us all tocontct thecongress-critters to vote a nada on the AW renewal.I haven't seen a single word.

Seems they'd be beatin' theairwaves ....

My gals & guys'll be gettin' an earful (e-mail, hard copy, fax & phone on this issue)

Kinda curious wher are the gunnies - this early.

Bainx
January 5, 2004, 04:14 PM
As I have posted before, my once-truly-conservative in-laws now are stomping their feet and DEMANDING that assault rifles be totally illegal.
After I got finished shouting at them, I tried to explain what an assault rifle is but, to no avail.
They are true Rush fans.....gee you think he would be on our side.

MicroBalrog
January 5, 2004, 04:14 PM
NO. (http://www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=30762&highlight=Avalanche)

CleverNickname
January 5, 2004, 06:35 PM
It will be gone in September, but will be back in an even worse form next time there's a Democrat-controlled Congress.

hillbilly
January 5, 2004, 06:50 PM
Again, I want to remind the naysayers and the doom predictors of some numbers.

In 1994, the Democrats controlled the White House, the House, and the Senate.

The AWB passed the House by TWO FREAKIN' VOTES. That's two votes passage with Dems in control of the House.

The AWB passed the Senate by ONE FREAKIN' VOTE that was a tie-breaking vote cast by none other than Vice President Al Gore himself.

Slick Willy signed that piece of crap law, that was passed by exactly THREE FREAKIN' VOTES, one of those votes being tie-break vote cast by neither a Representative nor a Senator.

The result of those THREE FREAKIN' VOTES??????

The Democrats lost control of the House and they lost control of the Senate.

And when Al Gore's time came to assume the mantle of President, the Dems lost the White House, too.

All it takes is gun owners writing postcards to their Congresscritters, reminding them of the results of those three votes.

They want to stay in power, sunset that sucker.

It's really that simple, folks.

If gunowners would spend a little time writing a postcard to their Reps and Senators, instead of bitching and whining and predicting gloom and failure, the AWB would be DOA.

But then again, it's usually more fun to bitch and whine and predict gloom and failure than take time to actually exercise a civic right and duty and send a postcard with a simple message on it to an elected representative, isn't it?????

My postcards are hitting the mail tomorrow. When are you sending yours out?

hillbilly

labgrade
January 5, 2004, 07:11 PM
hillbilly,s

"It's really that simple, folks.

My postcards are hitting the mail tomorrow. When are you sending yours out?"

Yup.

Write an e-mail, fax it in, print it out & snail-mail it, & call 'em up.

Let them know that their future employement is decideed on this one issue alone.

Beat them up on it!

Imagine the press to be gained on turning this around!

It IS a homeland security issue.

telewinz
January 5, 2004, 07:19 PM
1. Due to conditions beyond anyone's control it will "accidently" pass into history. This will be permitted to happen by the Dems and Republicans and will be "deeply regretted".:D

2. A filibuster will be held by a Republican who is due to retire or expects to be voted out anyhow. The AWB will lapse into history since no action will be possible due to the filibuster.

3. A "watered down" AWB will be passed with a great many loopholes.

Hkmp5sd
January 5, 2004, 08:42 PM
The current AWB will fade into history. Absolutely nothing will happen until after the presidential election. At that time, one of three possible things will happen. First scenerio, a democrat is elected and we wind up with a more restrictive ban. Second scenerio, Bush is re-elected, we win and the ban is history for the near future. Third possibility, Bush is re-elected, but prior to the election, he makes deals with some democrats to renew a similiar AWB after the election provided the democrats don't force the issue during his re-election campaign.

Bob Locke
January 5, 2004, 09:09 PM
Third possibility, Bush is re-elected, but prior to the election, he makes deals with some democrats to renew a similiar AWB after the election provided the democrats don't force the issue during his re-election campaign.
This is pretty much what I'm thinking.

The same "political reality" that caused Bush to sign McCain-Feingold into law is going to come to the fore on this issue as well.

Seems to Bush that the best way to keep the Dem's from beating him up on something is to just give them what they want. :barf:

geekWithA.45
January 6, 2004, 11:21 AM
But what I fear is the same pattern that lead to the passage of NJ "smart guns" law.

The governor said something to the effect that "I don't want any gun legislation on my desk before the election", and his pet committee chairman made it so.

Once the messiness of elections and democracy in action was over and done with, lo and behold, the heinous thing comes up for a vote. The two reps from my district (:cuss:) vote "yea", tipping the balance, and everyone else jumps onto the bandwagon. While this is happening, my two dishonorable representascum switch their votes to "abstain", so as not to have their record dirtied, and the chairman closes the vote.

Yup, that's democracy in action for ya.

So, if I had to call it now, it would be:

-The bill stays in comittee till after elections
-The AWB expires, for some unknown length of time

-The next time a criminal uses a long gun to perform a spectacular crime, the whole thing starts all over again.

ClonaKilty
January 6, 2004, 03:49 PM
My postcards are hitting the mail tomorrow. When are you sending yours out?

Already did it my friend and I still say there's a 50/50 chance the existing law will be renewed,which of course just means it wil be "upgraded" later on (just a matter of time) to include all semi autos

I can hear Katie Couric screeching as she holds a Browning BAR: "These rifles are sniper weapons with more power than even our foot soldiers have!"

Yes it is time to blitz our representatives AND the media, AND at the same time start buying semi autos in case AWB is renewed.

G1FAL
January 6, 2004, 04:03 PM
We MAY have a 3 month window, depending on whether the demoRATS can get any of their hired goons to shoot up a school or three. After that time period, it will be back, and it will be badder than ever. Now you'll either be able to have a detachable mag OR a mag over 10 rounds. No pistol grip, no bayonet lug, no collapsable/folding stocks, etc. Wouldnt be surprised to see them go the way of Kommiefornia, and say that they have to be registered, and thena few months later, suprise suprise, they are now forbiden, turn them in to the cops, and everyone that has one registered had BETTER turn them in, cuz we got your name, we got your number, we got your azz.

I gotta start saving some cash so that I'll be able to get something during that window of opportunity.

Monkeyleg
January 7, 2004, 12:27 AM
Ever since Bush's campaign in 2000, I figured that he was giving us a nod and a wink when it came to the AWB sunset: it would never reach his desk.

Since the prescription drug plan, Campaign Finance reform, the Patriot Act, and other absolutely abominable pieces of legislation, I now really have my doubts.

Today I had a few minutes to listen to Rush Limbaugh. Bear in mind that I'm no "dittohead," nor do I listen very often. But what he had to say made sense.

Bush and Karl Rove, as Limbaugh's theory goes, are looking to absolutely demolish the Democrat Party. This administration has taken the Clinton/Morris triangulation strategy to new heights (or lows, if you prefer).

By passing new Medicare prescription drug legislation, campaign finance legislation, "immigration reform" legislation, trashing of the Fourth Amendment in the name of Homeland Security, and other measures, the Bush/Rove team have largely taken all the Democrat issues off the table. All that's left is for Howard Dean to claim that Bush knew about that one cow with a disease that came down from Alberta. Dean makes for good Jay Leno jokes, but this is serious.

If Limbaugh is right--and I think he's onto something--then there's no limit to the number of issues that Bush/Rove will co-opt from the Democrats, if their goal is to decimate the Democrat party.

Given that scenario, there's absolutely no reason for Bush/Rove to not embrace a renewal of the AW ban just to garner the scared Soccer Mom vote.

I was confident months back that we wouldn't see a renewal of the AW ban, much less a more stringent ban. Now, I'm not so sure. If they succeed in essentially destroying the Democrat party, then they don't need us gunowners anymore, do they?

NY Patriot
January 7, 2004, 01:18 AM
The AW ban will go the way of the T-Rex & the Betamax if we all do our part...

The Essential "End the AW Ban" Contact List & Sample Letter Thread (www.thehighroad.org/showthread.php?threadid=39429)

First the work, then the reward. It can't & won't happen any other way!!!

artherd
January 7, 2004, 03:08 AM
The good news is: There's really no time to enact something that would go into effect before or anytime soon after the '94 ban sunsets.

The BAD NEWS is, there's also nothing to stop a much stricter bill coming down the pipes a year from then.

Hope all the manufactuars are tooling up.

Boats
January 7, 2004, 10:05 AM
For a bunch of allegedly rational people we certainly get irrational about this issue. I thank Hillbilly for at least trying to inject some political reality into this thread.

Fact: The original AWB barely passed under a Democratic controlled Congress.

Fact: In 1996, the House successfully voted to REPEAL the AWB, but the Senate didn't go along and it would have been vetoed anyway.

Fact: Though Denny Hastert is Speaker of the House, Tom Delay is the guy who is going to keep the AWB bottled up to die in committee. Unless the Demos sweep back into Congressional leadership, especially in the House, no significant gun control legislation is going to survive committee.

Fact: The President only proposes legislation, he cannot broker a deal that the Congressional leadership will not pass. The AWB is hardly susceptible to party discipline as shown by all the previous cross-over vote counts. It is more an urban/suburban/rural thing despite party affiliation.

Fact: Though the Presidential race is national, House members answer to the voters locally. Passage of the existing or an improved AWB would be a career death sentence for many of them. It will be safer to do nothing, especially among those not from safe liberal districts. If one is from a swing or conservative district, why kick a wasps' nest looking for honey that ain't there? Many or the remaining Democrats will remember 1996.

The AWB is going to die. The Democratic presidential challenger will be as mealy mouthed about it as Bush will be, if it comes up at all. Unless the Democrats take over, having no AWB will become the status quo. My suggestion would be to buy and stock up in whatever window is made available to you because all bets are off if/when the Demos or their successors control Congress and the White House again.

ClonaKilty
January 7, 2004, 10:33 AM
Boats:

You make good points, but alllow me to propose some ways AWB might still be renewed.

The very name "Assault Weapon Ban" makes it tough to ignore/let die in committee, because the press (who politicians live & die by) will have field day with headlines, such as "Local Rep. wants to put assault weapons back on the street." Doesn't matter if it's right or wrong, nor what the real definition of "assault rifle" is. Soccer Moms (and Dads) in Suburban America -- the classic swingin' voters -- read this, then hear a call for "sensible gun legislation" by "social policy experts" on ANBCBS/NPR. A few skewed Gallup polls later and suddenly you've got letter campaigns & calls by Joe & Jane Minivan calling for renewal.

Add to this that Bush's reelection is at high risk, especially if Clark continues to close the gap w/Dean. If this bill ever makes it out of committee, he WILL sign it. Bush would never go back on this promise, he's too afraid to repeat his Dad's mistake of breaking his promise to not pass new taxes, especialy in an election year.

Yes, it comes down to whether the bill dies in committee or not. And this probably will depend heavily on RKBA-ists applying steady pressure via phone calls, emails, faxes, appearances at town halls mtgs., etc. And, I know that gun rights folks are the most active there are so we will fight this one very hard.

But the emotional nature of gun control in general and AWB in particular tells me it's 50/50 this gets out of committe in some form, and gets renewed.

HankB
January 7, 2004, 10:45 AM
The GOP will stop renewal of the ban . . . IF AND ONLY IF WE HOLD THEIR FEET TO THE FIRE!!

There are too many RINOs and fellow travelers in the ranks of the GOP to trust them to do the right thing without encouragement of the "carrot and stick" variety.

Me, I write letters - short, succinct, and pithy, not long diatribes - to my elected legislators. When there's a national issue of this importance, I write to my STATE legislators, too. I let them know that even though they're in the STATE government, as members of the SAME party as my U.S. reps and senators, I hold them equally responsible if bad legislation passes. After all, the House, Senate, and White House are all controlled by the GOP, my State senator and State representative are GOP . . . if bad legislation passes, it will ONLY be because of the GOP - all one party.

And if the AWB is renewed or extended, I'll hold the PARTY responsible, and I won't vote for ANYONE from the GOP at ANY level of government, even if he's running for third assistant dogcatcher.

Derek Zeanah
January 7, 2004, 10:56 AM
I don't see it. I mean, haven't we seen a number of votes passed recently by mere voice vote, in the middle of the night, so no-one can be held accountable.

"They ayes have it." :barf:

I don't see this one going away. It might wait until after the election, but it's staying. Or getting worse.

wenger
January 7, 2004, 12:12 PM
Most gun owners support the AWB. It's only the hard core gun owners like us that even care.

My wife is very typical. She is very tollerant and supports my rights to buy, own and shoot, hunt and carried concealed all I want. Yet when you say "assault" weapon, she just doesn't understand why I want to own one.

The reality is the AWB is going to get renewed. Period. You can bitch and moan all you want. That's just the way it is.

Why the hell would Bush support repealing it? He's got far more important issues to spend his political capitol on. Pleasing the conservative wing of gun owners ain't it.

And I like black guns! I just recognize the politcal reality.


John

HankB
January 7, 2004, 12:20 PM
Why the hell would Bush support repealing it?If it came to actually VOTING to repeal it, we'd be S.O.L., despite our "friends" in the GOP.

BUT . . . and this is a very important BUT . . . the AWB can go away simply if Congress does NOTHING.

It's always easier to do nothing than it is to stand up and actually vote FOR or AGAINST something.

Bartholomew Roberts
January 7, 2004, 07:02 PM
If we do our part, the AWB renewal will die.

The bill has to pass the House in order to be renewed and the House Judiciary Committee has 33 members - 20 of which are GOA A-Rated.

So the only way that bill is leaving committee without severe alterations is if we get backstabbed, not by one; but by THREE different GOA A-Rated legislators. Even then it will have to pass a House that has a strong pro-gun majority.

The only way this bill isn't going to die is if gunowners are completely absent from the political battlefield and if we are so lazy that even GOA A-rated legislators are willing to vote against us then we pretty much deserve what we get.

As for the bill getting renewed after the election, that will depend entirely on the makeup of the House and Senate. The Republicans will have to make major changes to the membership of the House Judiciary committee before any ban is going to get passed pre or post election - so until the next legislative session committees are drawn up, no ban is going to pass and the next chance to significantly change the House Judiciary committee doesn't come until February 2005. Personally, I don't see it; but the make-up of the Judiciary committees will be a good indicator of where the majority party plans to go with that (for example Democratic Senate Judiciary committee members like Schumer, Feinstein, etc make it pretty plain where they are headed).

voilsb
January 7, 2004, 07:18 PM
I voted for number one but ....

It will fade away for now, but in a few years the freedoms we gain back will likely be legislated over with a more restrictive ban. Maybe it'll happen incrimentally, banning a bit here and there, but the end result will likely be worse.


I guess I'm not an optimist, eh?

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