US shipping 2,000 guns a day to Mexico


March 7, 2011, 02:38 PM

Well, the think tank that estimates 2,000 guns a day might be a little over the number.

Or, the BATF flat isn't doing anything about it, which I don't believe for a minute.

Let's do the math, 2,000 guns a day is - wait for it - 2,000 straw purchasers with otherwise sterling reputations buying guns at FFL's, then either 1) selling them to a gun smuggler, or 2) IS a gun smuggler.

2,000 times 365 equals 730,000 a year. That's a lot of straw purchasers. Now, if you buy a firearm to resell or give to somebody who isn't legally allowed to possess it, isn't that a felony? And every firearm sold in America has a serial number, right? And the Border Patrol could at least hand over the numbers it actually seizes to the BATF to investigate for prosecution, right?

WHO'S GETTING ARRESTED? I don't see any numbers at all on that. Even at the abysmal rate of less than one gun a day, at least two hundred straw buyers should be sitting in jail waiting for their day in court.

This is precisely the sort of thing being "reported" by the press, and it's not only bad sourcing, it's completely obvious there's a huge disconnect. If Amercians are straw buyers for Mexican gun cartels, it's to everyones benefit to show them on camera, being arrested at work, and sitting in jail

Just one problem - they don't exist. It's a deliberate agenda to demonize guns as the problem, when other methods would be instantly more effective. What won't work is saying guns are the problem, when it's obvious drug money and a lack of morals is the problem. Guns are just tools to force others to bend to the will of the Cartel when money and drugs won't.

Yes, the American press really thinks you will believe them, and not even think about it.

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March 7, 2011, 02:43 PM
I read that article in our local daily fire starter yesterday, and could not find any truth.

March 7, 2011, 03:37 PM
Just because there may be 2,000 straw purchases a day doesn't mean there must be 2,000 different straw purchasers.

March 7, 2011, 03:40 PM
Maybe if they trusted their citizens with a 2nd Amendment type constitutional law, then there wouldn't be such a black market interest in guns, and the citizens down there could protect themselves and rid themselves of thugs.

March 7, 2011, 03:45 PM
So maybe we have one strawpurchaser buying 2,000 guns a day? Or is it 2 making 1,000 purchases a day?

Even if its someone making 5 straw purchases thats 400 folks per day and 150,000 per year.

Somehow the numbers just don't quite get it. Seems more than a little far fetched to me.

Shadow 7D
March 7, 2011, 04:02 PM
Maybe it's part of 'Gunrunner' AKA ' project gun walker'
and the AFT is uncrating them and handing them out at the boarder....

March 7, 2011, 04:11 PM
Right, and half of those guns are fully automatice and/or RPGs, which of course every neighbor hood gun store have in inventory. Just ask Mrs Clinton or Mayor Bloomberg.

Bartholomew Roberts
March 7, 2011, 04:13 PM
Or, the BATF flat isn't doing anything about it, which I don't believe for a minute.

Actually, if you look at CBS News reporting of the ATF "Fast and Furious" project, that is exactly what ATF agents allege. They state that ATF purposely allowed sales to suspected straw purchasers - hundreds of AK47s at a time in some cases. One of the rifles was used in the murder of Border Patrol agent Brian Terry and finally caused some ATF agents to take their stories to the media.

Having said that, 2,000 guns a day strikes me as way over the top. The Phoenix area ATF that let guns "walk" for over a year through suspicious straw sales that the FFL had alerted them to reported only 1,700-something firearms over a year; but of course that is relying on the info from the same agency that persecuted whistleblowers, denied allegations and in some cases named FFLs who assisted them as defendants in indictments in order to keep them from discusding the Gunwalker scandal.

March 7, 2011, 05:02 PM
I wouldn't have any problems with guns going to Mexico as long as they're equally distributed to both sides!:neener::neener:

Carne Frio
March 7, 2011, 05:22 PM
Maybe, we should send all the ATF types, unarmed of course,
down to our friendly neighbor Mexico and have them bring
back all those evils guns. I'll bet even obozzo would approve.

March 7, 2011, 05:27 PM
The Mexican mafia is not getting guns off of US dealers that would amount to much. They get their guns and ammo off international dealers.

March 7, 2011, 06:03 PM
When Mexico alows their law abiding citizens to be armed, they shall have begun the solution to the problem. Their police and military are apparently not enough to stop the criminal element.

March 7, 2011, 06:12 PM
Their police and military are supposedly part of the problem.
I understand how the ATF might be crooked, but the FFL is ultimately responsible. I wouldn't sell a gun to anyone who was a jerk and the manager backed me up on it every time. I don't understand selling a firearm to someone when there might be the slightest ounce of suspicion.

March 7, 2011, 06:27 PM
That's an extraordinarily large number of firearms during the course of a year that they estimate are moving from US retailers into Mexico.

The logistics of moving that many firearms is very difficult when the border is supposed to be controlled specifically to prevent it.

The number of firearms produced in the US during a year would be depleted if nearly 3/4 of a million guns were leaving our market and going there.

Upon inspection it seems that the estimate is badly off since you couldn't move 3/4 of a million guns across the border with the trivial amount seized and there aren't that many firearms taken out of the US market.

Carl N. Brown
March 7, 2011, 06:30 PM
from the article:

March 5, 2011, "AP Enterprise: US push not halting guns to Mexico", (AP) BROWNSVILLE, Texas (AP)

A November 2008 study by The Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank, stated that 2,000 American guns are smuggled into Mexico each day. Compiled by a commission including ex-Mexican President Ernesto Zedillo and Thomas Pickering, a former ambassador to Russia and a senior State Department official during the administration of President Bill Clinton, the report was the last comprehensive estimate on the subject, though it did not include information on how that figure was reached.

The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit public policy organization based in Washington, D.C., in the United States. One of Washington's oldest think tanks, Brookings conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in economics, metropolitan policy, governance, foreign policy, and global economy and development. ....
...In 1977, Time Magazine described them as the "nation's pre-eminent liberal think tank."

So if a liberal think tank throws out that figure with no information on how that figure was reached, why should we believe that 2,000 guns a day go from the US to Mexico? 730,000 in one year? A few tests: what are number of guns seized in Mexico actually trace to the US and how many guns are sold each year in the US? 730,000 guns per year from US to Mexico simply does not compute.

Back in 1996, Customs and ATF agents found 2000 full-auto military AK-47 in a shipping container smuggled on Empress Phoenix docked at Oakland. So that could be a source of a "2000 guns a day from the US" meme. I think it is like most figures about guns from liberal think tanks: it is made up to justify their apriori assumptions about gun control.

Carl N. Brown
March 7, 2011, 06:32 PM
I understand how the ATF might be crooked, but the FFL is ultimately responsible. I wouldn't sell a gun to anyone who was a jerk ....

The FFLs were objecting, the ATF was ordering them to cooperate: The ATF controls their licenses. And you see what ATF is doing to ATF agents who are whistleblowers.

March 7, 2011, 06:41 PM
Statistics. Statistics can lie, and liars use statistics.
when someone start qouting numbers, I try to find where the numbers came from and how they were compiled. What is the rank and rating?
Personally, I am of the opinion that most of the guns in Mexico arrived their from Venezuela courtesy of Uncle Hugo.
Any civilian firearms making their way south of the border were more than likely stolen.

I don't see fully automatic AR's being made in the US being directly exported to Mexico unless they were procured for the Mexican government under a Foriegn Military Sales agreement sanctioned by the American government. Just ain't gonna happen!

March 7, 2011, 06:47 PM
Sounds like the brady bunch number inflation game plan.

March 7, 2011, 06:50 PM
Given the high rate of turnover from the Mexican military and police - both of which have access to full-auto ARs, H&K G3s, LMGs, etc. - as well as the millions of assault rifles left over from the Cold War in Latin America - one would think that the cartels could get all they needed from the south, not the north. Keep in mind that 90% of guns recovered from the cartels are not submitted by Mexico to the ATF for tracing because they are deemed as having not come from the US. That figure quoted by the AP seems disproportionately high given the total volume of guns sales in the US.

BTW...what the media always fails to mention is that several billion per year in revenue from Americans wanting to medicate their problems away can buy an awful lot of small arms from anywhere around the globe...and not just those sold commercially in the US.

March 7, 2011, 06:52 PM
Sounds to me like Mexico should take a little interest in managing their own borders to me!

Lies, damn lies and statistics...

March 7, 2011, 08:39 PM
Maybe it's part of 'Gunrunner' AKA ' project gun walker'
and the AFT is uncrating them and handing them out at the boarder....

That would explain why no one is getting arrested.

March 7, 2011, 09:15 PM
I would suspect most of that number to be US Gov't sold guns transported to Mexican Gov't folks that somehow, once across the border, seem to get "diverted" to the wrong people

March 7, 2011, 09:47 PM
Our paper had an article stating the ATF only captured about "a day's worth" (i.e. their 2000 figure) of illegal guns flowing south over the course of a year.

I think I smell a rat if they claim that many are flowing south, but can only manage to intercept that small a number.

March 7, 2011, 09:52 PM
if mexico would stop the drug flow coming north across the border, it would also stop the flow of guns south, since there wouldn't be any buyers

Ohio Gun Guy
March 7, 2011, 10:01 PM
Classic Government thinking.....

We have been failing so miserably, lets increase our programs and fail even more......repeat.......repeat.......until debt is massive, continue......:cuss:

March 7, 2011, 10:02 PM
Yes guns sold/given to the Mexican military end up in druggies hands..Hummmmm....There are so many stories of illegal/wrong doings on both sides and it would be hard to point a finger without finding a bad guy or offical.

March 7, 2011, 11:10 PM
Now if I was an aspiring cartel thug, which would I choose:

1. A semi automatic AK clone of sometimes questionable quality that I had to trek to the US to buy, at an overpriced rate, and then smuggle someway back into Mexico.


2. A fully automatic weapon smuggled by the cartel from former Commie block countries/Mexican police on the payroll/South american sympathizers.

Easy choice. The full auto is probably cheaper to boot. These random "cartels get their weapons from the evil gun toting Americans" figures don't add up, or leave out some important facts. See: 90% of all guns traced come back to the US fuzzy math.

March 8, 2011, 05:17 PM
if the typical US/ MEXICO reported statistics were accurate, there would be 500 million illegal aliens here, 10 guns in every pocket in Mexico

Sebastian the Ibis
March 8, 2011, 09:46 PM
Stratfor put the whole Mexican gun myth to bed, see here:

Under discussion here:

March 8, 2011, 10:59 PM
These reports are untrue. They are simply propaganda offered by people who want more laws. If the lies stand, they will get what they want. We have to challenge these stories at the source, even on the local level. When a local news outlet provides one of these "informative" stories, we have to contact them. Writing a gun blog doesn't do a thing.

March 9, 2011, 12:15 AM
BATF doesn't like competition to their Gunrunner, er, Gunwalker programs. Out of Phoenix AZ alone the BATF facilitated over 2,000 guns sold to straw buyers so the drug cartels could take them to Mexico. But, whoops, one of the guns they let walk, was the weapon used to murder the Border Patrolman here in AZ. The BP agent had to shoot bean bags against the perp armed with a AK semi-auto.

March 9, 2011, 11:12 AM
And the plot thickens...

Letter from Senator Grassley: DoJ-OIG Can't Be Trusted to Impartially Investigate ATF's "Project Gunrunner" (;contentBody)

Mexican legislators demand US talks on gun scandal (
MEXICO CITY – Legislators from all of Mexico's three major parties in congress are calling for a joint U.S.-Mexico working group to examine accusations that U.S. federal agents allowed hundreds of guns to flow into Mexico.

March 9, 2011, 12:50 PM
"So if a liberal think tank throws out that figure with no information on how that figure was reached, why should we believe that 2,000 guns a day go from the US to Mexico?"

If any think tank, govt agency, or scholar throws out a number without a discussion of the methodology used to arrive at that number, then we must disregard it.

March 9, 2011, 01:01 PM
Maybe this is the lawyer in me looking for someone to blame, but my paranoia about these reports is growing. I am not one that usually likes to wear the tinfoil hat or build myself a bunker to hide from the black helicopters but in this case I am starting to look over my shoulder.

In the United States the amount of killings done by "assault rifles" is extremely low compared to handguns and even lower than even bare hands killings. Before certain politicians took power there were no reports about guns going to Mexico from the US. Though I am sure it happened here and there, it never became an issue to be reported on until power switched hands in American government.

We don't know WHO ordered the ATF agents to let those guns walk into Mexico. We don't know WHY they let smugglers take so many time after time.
We don't know HOW many weapons really get in there. (other than a Washington based liberal think tanks says 2000 per day, but won't say how they got those numbers. Really? Washington is a great place to do research on what goes through the Mexican border?)
We do know who the leader of the executive branch is and in charge of what the ATF is doing. We do know that there was a massive failure in protection of American and Mexican lives because of this poor plan. We also know that reports of gun violence in Mexico sways public opinion and builds political power towards the restriction of gun rights. Who has the most to benefit from these reports?

I cannot help but weigh the circumstantial evidence and come to a conclusion that someone WANTS there to be an issue to report on. Someone wants "assault rifle"/gun bad press.

Lastly I pose this question: Assuming that there really are 2000 guns getting across the border every day, what is the chance that the ATF would want to stop the ones they don't know about when they don't even have incentive to stop the ones they do know about?

Dave Workman
March 9, 2011, 01:11 PM
I talked about this in yesterday's Gun Rights Examiner entry:

March 10, 2011, 10:52 PM
Not 2,000 but 200 is no small amount:

From another article, one of the group is still on the run I think.

March 11, 2011, 12:13 AM
The large numbers are baseless and have to be propaganda designed for political purposes. The CBS article mentioned that 90% are ultimately traced to the US, but previous stories shed light on the 90% number as it was only the ones which Mexico asked the ATF to run traces on them. The the ATF sends agents into Mexico without the ability to protect themselves. The 2,000/day number (est) is almost a joke if the Border Patrol can't find more than 200. The fiction builds. There has to be a political purpose behind such factually poor reporting.

March 11, 2011, 09:50 AM
We are about 120 miles north of the border here and this is what happened here.

Old Fuff
March 11, 2011, 10:31 AM
There is unquestionably some what might be described as “amateur gun smuggling” going on – sometimes for profit, but often an attempt by Mexican-Americans to provide arms for extended family members in Mexico so that they can defend themselves in a country where on one hand strict gun control laws prevent law-abiding citizens from having means for self defense, while on the other hand the government fails to provide adequate protection from criminal elements. It is important to understand the difference between this, and providing arms for the drug cartels. The example of gunrunning in the article cited above could be motivated because of either reason.

Carl N. Brown
March 12, 2011, 08:31 AM
.....because everything else is a distraction from the real issues.

If it were US guns that were keeping Mexico's draconian gun control from achieving the goal of "a society free from gun violence", then the US would logically have more gun violence than Mexico. Cuidad Juarez, Mexico is just across the river from El Paso, Texas. AP: "More than 2,600 people were killed last year (2009) in the city of 1.3 million people." WP: "Neighboring El Paso, Texas, with a population of 600,000, reported 10 homicides in 2009" and "In 2010 CQ Press ranked El Paso safest city in the U.S. with a population over 500,000. "

Cuidad Juarez: 200 murders per 100,000 in 2009
El Paso, Texas: 1.67 murders per 100,000 in 2009

Yep, those lax gun laws in the US somehow cause more crime in Mexico and less crime in Texas. That's as stuck on stupid as claiming tough gun laws in Mexico cause less crime in the US, but watch how the Obama Administration and our mainstream media spin it next!

Part of the problem may well be that strict gun law does not disarm criminals, promotes rampant gun gunning, assures unarmed victims to both armed and unarmed criminals, and actually emboldens criminals assuring more violence overall.

March 12, 2011, 10:09 AM
While I believe the 2,000 gun figure to be grossly inflated, if it is somehow accurate, then the BATF is involved at an even deeper level than originally estimated. This kind of straw purchasing and smuggling without getting caught is impossible.

What we know about project gunrunner tells us that the ATF knowingly allows scores of illegal firearms to be smuggled into Mexico. This would include watching the smugglers actually do it, and being told to stand down from intervening. What we don't know is why. If and when the "why" is answered , I believe this will be the biggest scandal of the Obama administration's tenure in office.

FWIW, all we can do at this time is speculate at why project gunrunner exists. Myself, I believe there is one of two things going on, or maybe they are a combined effort. IMHO, the US either has an interest in protecting the Mexican drug cartels, or they have an interest in bringing down the firearms industry. I can see no other possible reason for KNOWINGLY allowing this to happen. Regardless of which of those two it might be, the implications are horrific and massive. This kind of agenda would require BATF strong arming of FFL's, possible recruitment or aiding of straw purchasers and smugglers, and possibly even BATF firearms distribution.

I don't usually buy into conspiracies, but this isn't a conspiracy anymore, it is actively being investigated and appears to have real factual grounding. I really hope the truth in this comes out.

March 12, 2011, 10:24 AM
Wouldn't a person that buys a lot of guns over a short period of time trigger the background check? After all, that's what it's for isn't it? My government wouldn't spend millions on a system that only harassed law abiding citizens....would it?....anybody......hello....can you hear me?

Carl N. Brown
March 12, 2011, 07:05 PM
ATF figures for 2008 were 4,298,202 firearms made in the US;
228,493 firearms legally exported.

The alleged 2,000 per day to Mexico times 365 days is 730,000.

That would be the equivalent of almost 17% of all guns made in America being slipped across the border to Mexico each year.

That would be three times the legal exports each year.

March 12, 2011, 07:13 PM
My beloved Mexican brothers should have by now enough machine guns to spare me some if the reports are true.

March 13, 2011, 09:41 AM
Instead of agonizing over symptoms, let's get to some of the roots of our problems with our neighbor to the south. Let's enact the Mexican Border Reality Act.

1. Admit we lost the war on weed long ago and quit spending billions on a never-ending battle our own citizens don't want won. Legalize it, tax it, regulate it the same as alcohol. Allow American growers to compete.

2. Make it a felony to hire illegal aliens and don't exempt lawn care providers and maid services. It won't end the flood but it should cut down the flow.

3. Enforce the laws against straw purchases but tell the Mexican government that since we're not the problem, we can't be the solution, either.

Hmmm...that should be enough to upset everyone. But I bet it would work better than what we've got now.

March 13, 2011, 09:57 AM
1. Admit we lost the war on weed long ago and quit spending billions on a never-ending battle our own citizens don't want won.

Like the "war on poverty", the "war on drugs" was lost decades ago. The political hacks who run this country want to keep prisons full of dope smokers and low level dealers. Prisons are the largest industry in the US.

March 13, 2011, 02:39 PM
Here are a couple of articles to share with others. These should spread a little light on where many of the "American" guns in mexico really come from.

Legal U.S Arms Exports May Be Source of NArco Syndicates' Rising Firepower (

Pentagon Fingered As A Source Of Narco-Firepower (

March 13, 2011, 02:58 PM
Texas Bill, You have it 100% right. post 117

March 13, 2011, 08:06 PM
I wouldn't trust that article, as we all know that 94.783% of all statistics used in arguments are made up on the spot.

March 17, 2011, 09:59 AM
While events from around the world have driven this story off the front pages, it's not going away.

03/16/2011 Letter from Rep Darrell Issa, Chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, to ATF Acting Director Kenneth Melson (;contentBody)

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