Election 2012 question


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Gordon_Freeman
March 9, 2011, 10:37 AM
If the president gets reelected next year, will there be panic buying of guns and ammo again like there was after the last election? I might need to get the guns I want now because I paid some stupid tax after the last election.

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kingpin008
March 9, 2011, 10:40 AM
How is anyone supposed to answer this? You're talking about the future. Anything could happen between then and now.

If you want a particular gun, buy it. The price could go up for any reason under the sun - panic buying is but one of them.

Jorg Nysgerrig
March 9, 2011, 10:43 AM
You know, I was going to respond in a similar fashion to kingpin008, then I remembered I've been around the gun forums long enough to pretty much know what well happen.

To answer your question, yes.

If a "gun-friendly" president is elected, the Chicken Littles and eager dealers of the gun world will declare that all guns will be banned by the incumbent on his way out the door and we should buy now.

If a not "gun-friendly" president stays in office, the Chicken Littles and eager dealers of the gun board will declare that all guns will be banned by the incumbent since he has nothing to loose and we should buy now.

You can pretty much guarantee that no matter what happens, someone will tell you this is your last chance to buy something.

AlexanderA
March 9, 2011, 10:57 AM
The panic buying would be predicated on fears that there would be a new push for gun control. The "fears" may indeed take place, but it's unlikely that there would actually be much of a push for more gun control. Thinking Democrats have realized (ever since their 1994 debacle) that gun control is a losing issue for them, and anyway it's likely that the 2012 elections will result in more Republicans in Congress, especially in the Senate. Obama is too weak (and weak-willed) to try to push anything on his own.

Fear-mongering benefits gun sellers. I for one refuse to be played for a sap.

Bubbles
March 9, 2011, 10:59 AM
Pushes for gun control will continue to be done behind the scenes rather than openly, so I don't see an increase in panic-buying.

Sky
March 9, 2011, 11:08 AM
Bubbles I agree. Think the cost of many things are going up from garlic to metals. Never a bad time to buy early if a deal is found.

Art Eatman
March 9, 2011, 11:15 AM
My guess is that after the next election, federal anti-gun actions won't happen. It's the "now" which is more worrisome. But I'll avoid political matters.

A quite-likely situation will be an ongoing price increase in ammo and reloading components--due to rising costs of commodities and our weakening dollar. Consumer price inflation is already occurring, regardless of official government numbers.

gbw
March 9, 2011, 11:38 AM
Not sure how it would play out in pricing, but....

If Obama (or any gun-hostile) pol is elected in 2012, then we have also to assume some part of the conservative 2010 gains will be lost as well. (I have heard Obama state he is opposed to semi-auto weapons, for example).

That's bad enough, but the wildcard becomes the Supreme Court. In a bad case scenario, 2 of the fab-4 retire or pass away. And this is not the worst case. Fair to assume in this case new justices will be gun-hostile as well, and it becomes 6-3 against 2A instead of 5-4 for.

Would such a court re-consider Heller? I speculate it's likely since the decision is still quite new (not really 'settled' yet), it was decided so narrowly, and those opposed were so rock solid in opposition. Don't count on stare decisis to keep Heller safe either - it ain't law, just convention. They can override anytime they want. And the more idiotic high-profile gun crimes we have, the more likely.

Get in the game. Vote. Get your friends to vote. Work for your candidates.

Vonderek
March 9, 2011, 12:47 PM
The only thing preventing him and others from pursuing gun control now is the political repercussions at the polls. If he is re-elected there would be no check on him not pushing for gun control measures as he would be a second term president and under no pressure of facing a third term election. The bigger picture is the Congress and especially the Senate.

ArmedLiberal
March 9, 2011, 02:35 PM
I believe that the Great Obama Gun and Ammo Buying Frenzy was only possible because many gun owners are ignorant of how our government works and how political forces are balancing out at the present time. Certain supposedly reliable sources of news and information have proven to be unreliable and have sparked and fed the Buying Frenzy in the past.

My hope is that millions have since educated themselves and will realize that the US President has no power to ban guns by himself and that the balance of power in Congress prevents the passage of Anti-Gun Laws in the present moment.

The Supreme Court seems pretty stable at this time. No members are in ill health and none show any inclination to leave the bench. The oldest two are Ginsburg - 77 and Scalia - 74. It could well be 10 years before another appointment is made.

I would never bet against another buying frenzy though. We all have the herd instincts deep inside and fear is easily contagious.

ArmedLiberal
March 9, 2011, 02:37 PM
Get in the game. Vote. Get your friends to vote. Work for your candidates.
Quoted for Truth

speaksoftly
March 9, 2011, 02:57 PM
Be it panic driven buying or just plain "I want a gun" buying, I'll consider any of it good for the firearms industry. The one thing I like about Barack is that he's put guns in more people's hands than any other president. If he did it by scaring them into making the decision that they were most likely already considering then good for him.

Gordon_Freeman
March 9, 2011, 04:31 PM
I'm just going to assume that the president will be reelected and there will be another gun panic. That way I will be prepared and have everything I want and not have to pay too much for the guns I want. The 2008 election really caught me unprepared. Lesson learned.

Remo223
March 9, 2011, 04:42 PM
President? What president? We haven't had a president since Reagan and his final 2 years were questionable.

Seriously though, there will be panic buying but I seriously doubt it will be as extreme as the panic buying when obama won.

Jesse Heywood
March 9, 2011, 04:52 PM
We had a gun show this last weekend that showed that the days of panic buying are not over. Attendance was up and sales were brisk. I assume this was due to the actions of the BATFE in the recent weeks.

frankenstein406
March 9, 2011, 05:03 PM
Seems like its more a ammo scare than gun scare right now.

hso
March 9, 2011, 05:04 PM
Post #3 is the answer I'd agree with since none of us have a crystal ball.

My hope is that millions have since educated themselves

I appreciate optimism, but we don't see any evidence of this having occurred.

Be it panic driven buying or just plain "I want a gun" buying, I'll consider any of it good for the firearms industry.

This isn't what many in the industry think. Panic buying flooded the market with demand that couldn't be met and drove prices out of reach of some while others bought multiples of overpriced firearms. Production raced to keep up, but left many smiths and smaller makers out in the cold as critical components to build firearms became difficult or impossible to purchase to keep their normal pre-banic production going. Some of that was offset by their raising prices in response to having to pay more for the increasingly rare components, but in many cases they actually lost money as they paid the rent and utilities and couldn't get parts to meet any demand. Once national production and demand curves once again crossed each other (plummeting demand as the sky did not hit the flock of Chicken Littles on their collective noggins and skyrocketing production as the manufacturers of parts and firearms finally caught up and passed the dropping demand) prices plummeted and once again smiths and small manufacturers and even medium and large manufacturers saw prices drop to nearly pre banic levels, but with a depressed economy and now lower profits to be made. One small manufacturer confided in me that they'd have had to close their doors 18 months ago because of the black rifle banic if not for the tactikewl bolt guns they build allowing them to scrape by.

Overall it is questionable whether that sort of panic purchasing is good for the industry or not vs. a steady manageable increase in demand.

AlexanderA
March 9, 2011, 05:29 PM
I'm just going to assume that the president will be reelected and there will be another gun panic. That way I will be prepared and have everything I want and not have to pay too much for the guns I want. The 2008 election really caught me unprepared. Lesson learned.

Well, if you believe that that's true, the proper strategy would be to buy more guns than you want now and then sell the excess for a tidy profit at the height of the panic.

Speaking of this sort of short-term investment strategy, it might be good to keep an eye on the dollar-euro exchange rate, and buy guns of European origin (Italian replicas, etc.). Their value is bound to go up if the dollar sinks and the euro rises.

On the other hand, if the economic recession (or rather, jobless recovery) continues, few people will have the money to buy guns, panic or no panic. After all, guns are a discretionary purchase. Putting food on the table gets priority.

The last panic may have represented the peak of a "bubble" in guns, and what we're seeing now may be the beginning of the bursting of the bubble. This is certainly true regarding NFA weapons. Once this deflationary psychology takes hold, you may see a snowball effect of people dumping their excess weapons.

heeler
March 9, 2011, 06:29 PM
Hmm...Tread lightly,ever so lightly as this is fast reaction THR.....
But,in my opinion IF the current prez is relected I do see a lot of push on the anti second amendment front because there will be no better time and for him what's there to lose??
And oh by the way Armed Liberal it just so happens that a friend of mine for only the last forty two years is somewhat in the same camp as you.
He is staunchly second amendment and owns more guns and ammo than most militia followers but goes headlong voting for and pushing every thing that is not only left but far left.
But through all of this he has said several times to me that he fully expects Americans to be stripped of their second Amendment rights in the future...But he continues to support a group who has zero qualms in advocating this crap.
I DON'T understand.

DukeNukem
March 9, 2011, 06:48 PM
I think a lot of the fear had to do with Obama being something of a cult figure in 2008. I don't think many people view him that way anymore.

heeler
March 9, 2011, 07:10 PM
Duke I am old enough and have seen so much,politics in particular,to no longer place a solid bet.
It's kind of like two heavyweight boxers.
Both are in tremendous shape and have good to excellent skills but all it takes is one mistake and it's over by the ten count.

Remo223
March 9, 2011, 07:46 PM
Hmm...Tread lightly,ever so lightly as this is fast reaction THR.....
But,in my opinion IF the current prez is relected I do see a lot of push on the anti second amendment front because there will be no better time and for him what's there to lose??
And oh by the way Armed Liberal it just so happens that a friend of mine for only the last forty two years is somewhat in the same camp as you.
He is staunchly second amendment and owns more guns and ammo than most militia followers but goes headlong voting for and pushing every thing that is not only left but far left.
But through all of this he has said several times to me that he fully expects Americans to be stripped of their second Amendment rights in the future...But he continues to support a group who has zero qualms in advocating this crap.
I DON'T understand.
what is there to lose? how bout more seats in congress.

The democrat party is already going to lose more seats in two years and most likely even more seats two years after that. If re elected and pushes for more federal gun bans or back door proxy bans the democrat party losses in congress will be staggering and permanent for my lifetime.

But I really don't see a successful re election in the cards. Not without a "no show" in the republican party...a candidate that is completely inept and unlikeable...which is entirely possible.

I don't think there will be any more attacks on the second amendment for the next 4-6 years. Not blatant ones at the federal level. There's just no stomach for it in congress right now.

heeler
March 9, 2011, 07:50 PM
Remo in the best hopes of tomorrow let's hope so but,re-read my last post.
Weird, and I do mean weird things have happened before in our political system.

hso
March 9, 2011, 07:55 PM
And this one has started to drift in predictably short order. Let's try to pull it back from partisan politics and provide a dispassionate discussion of the OP's topic.

If Nov. 2012 elections happen to look like there will be a shift in balance towards greater anti influence in Congress AND the current administration appears to have a chance of holding office, whether those are the results after election day or not, we will probably see some sort of banic buying again. It will not be as great as Sept/Oct/Nov/etc. 2008 simply because so many people are still sitting on EBRs and EBPs bought back then, but there will be some wanting to stock up "just in case". That will push prices a little higher.

We will also see some hype of the "inevitable ban" to push the banic buying and that will help increase sales. Instead of investing time in working in the political races to ensure that anti politicians don't make it into office, many will invest their time and money "getting theirs before there ain't none to get" leaving the heavy lifting to the rest of us.

heeler
March 9, 2011, 08:00 PM
Well,I have said my peace in as delicate manner as possible and will retire from this thread now.

skoro
March 9, 2011, 08:11 PM
If the president gets reelected next year, will there be panic buying of guns and ammo again like there was after the last election?

I doubt it. Fears of gun-grabbing have been unfounded.

xcgates
March 9, 2011, 08:13 PM
I had a whole post written up, trying to be polite and delicate, but lets face it, people should be planning ahead, and in general have contingency plans.

No matter what happens, I can guarentee you some people will panic, I can't tell you how many, or what affect (effect?) they will have. I say that because no matter who wins whatever office, someone will be unhappy and be sure it is the end of the world.

Do what you think is the smart move for the future.

commygun
March 9, 2011, 09:58 PM
Actually the Senate seats in play suggest there will be considerably less anti influence after the 2012 elections. If the president is re-elected popular perceptions might create another panic but the chances of any successful anti-gun legislation are very slim.

Balrog
March 9, 2011, 10:11 PM
We will also see some hype of the "inevitable ban" to push the banic buying and that will help increase sales. Instead of investing time in working in the political races to ensure that anti politicians don't make it into office, many will invest their time and money "getting theirs before there ain't none to get" leaving the heavy lifting to the rest of us.
__________________

This train of thought seems poorly thought out, seeing as how you can do both at the same time, and you have absolutely no idea whether or not the so called panic buyers are also writing letters to Congress and donating money to pro gun causes. I wonder if since you already "have yours" you are perhaps belittling the people who are trying to "get theirs".

ArmedLiberal
March 9, 2011, 10:24 PM
Hmm...Tread lightly,ever so lightly as this is fast reaction THR.....
But,in my opinion IF the current prez is relected I do see a lot of push on the anti second amendment front because there will be no better time and for him what's there to lose??
And oh by the way Armed Liberal it just so happens that a friend of mine for only the last forty two years is somewhat in the same camp as you.
He is staunchly second amendment and owns more guns and ammo than most militia followers but goes headlong voting for and pushing every thing that is not only left but far left.
But through all of this he has said several times to me that he fully expects Americans to be stripped of their second Amendment rights in the future...But he continues to support a group who has zero qualms in advocating this crap.
I DON'T understand.
Just because my handle is ArmedLiberal doesn't mean that I vote like your friend. Things are often more complicated than they appear at first glance. It's my purpose that US 2nd Amendment Rights be preserved as that is the way that I see we will avoid armed conflict in this country in decades to come. I believe that without an armed populace we are more vulnerable to either a civil war or a totalitarian government.

Remo223
March 10, 2011, 12:15 AM
Actually the Senate seats in play suggest there will be considerably less anti influence after the 2012 elections. If the president is re-elected popular perceptions might create another panic but the chances of any successful anti-gun legislation are very slim.
agreed

Not only that, but just a couple failed attempts will make it even harder for ani-gun politicians to get elected or re-elected. So I'm actually hoping they DO keep trying for the next year or 3.

merlinfire
March 10, 2011, 07:12 AM
I know what opinions are worth, but here's mine.

The last panic-buy was probably not warranted, for one simple reason. A politician's number 1 goal is to get re-elected. As a first term president, he would not do anything to harm his chances at a second term.

However, if he is re-elected, he no longer has to worry about that little detail. If re-elected, we'll see him being a bit more bold in his initiatives. This has been basically true of every 2-term president. They have less to lose.

I'm not sure I'm as convinced of BHO's anti agenda as many here are, but if anything is going to happen, it will be during the second term.

Balrog
March 10, 2011, 08:08 AM
A politician's number 1 goal is to get re-elected. As a first term president, he would not do anything to harm his chances at a second term.

History, of course, proves your statement to be false. Bill Clinton passed the AWB in his first term.

ZCORR Jay
March 10, 2011, 08:22 AM
I plan on being the first person to inhabit the moon by the 2012 elections. There are no politics or taxes there.

hogshead
March 10, 2011, 08:35 AM
I think that either way the elections go, ammo is still going to be harder to come by. I just ordered a case of wolf 762x39. I had to get it at SG. CD doesent even list it anymore. All the cases except 154 sp where on backorder till at least mid March.

merlinfire
March 10, 2011, 09:20 AM
History, of course, proves your statement to be false. Bill Clinton passed the AWB in his first term.

They obviously did not expect that it would be something that would affect their re-election. That's only a matter of underestimating the ire of the gun-owning public, not a lack of political will to self-preserve. After the fallout from that debacle, politicians know that it is dangerous, and they won't make the same mistake while their political survival is at stake.

AlexanderA
March 10, 2011, 05:46 PM
The "panic buying" idea is based on the assumption that, like in the Clinton AWB, already-owned weapons will be "grandfathered in." This may not be a correct assumption. For example, Rep. Carolyn McCarthy's bill to ban magazines over 10 rds. would outlaw possession of such magazines regardless of when they were made or purchased.

The antis have realized that the AWB was a joke precisely because of the grandfather clause. They won't make that mistake again -- but they may make an even bigger mistake, which is an outright prohibition (of certain categories of items). Like alcohol Prohibition in the early 20th century, this would be widely ignored, causing all sorts of social disruptions and dislocations.

Philly Slim
March 10, 2011, 05:56 PM
I'll echo what a couple others have already said; the presidential election with have much less affect on gun issues than the congressional elections.

Hangingrock
March 10, 2011, 05:57 PM
Basically the NRA thrives on political turmoil and to a degree stimulates the herd to stampede.

BENBRU
March 10, 2011, 06:49 PM
Agreed... Congressional elections will have more of an impact. While the President plays a part, the House and Senate are just as important. Just like we are probably not going to get the MG registry re-opened with a Lib President. A Lib President is probably not going to get any anti 2A legislation through a Republican House or Senate.

The beauty of checks and balances... I'll refrain from going on a rant about the tyranny of the majority and the 2 Potential checks still put on it. Lots of really interesting work going on in Political Theory right now.

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