Reactor Disaster In Japan


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Ky Larry
March 19, 2011, 12:38 AM
I know nuclear reactors use a lot of lead sheilding. Also, Japan will need to repair/replace a lot of their power grid wiring. Anybody have a guess when copper and lead prices will start to skyrocket due to increased demand? I'm buying all the ammo and reloading components I can afford.

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dbro822
March 19, 2011, 12:44 AM
If goes the way it did when china put up the three rivers dam, copper, and steel should start to climb up in price in about 6 to 8 months.

General Geoff
March 19, 2011, 12:46 AM
Lead and copper don't just vanish. A lot of the metal in what was destroyed will be reclaimed during salvage efforts.

hardworker
March 19, 2011, 01:00 AM
Everybody has a guess, and they're all equally valuable.

nwilliams
March 19, 2011, 01:03 AM
Who cares.

Seriously in the wake of what happened to the people of Japan as a result of the tsunami do we really have the audacity to complain that ammo might go up a few cents. Thousands of people lost their lives, thousands more lost everything including loved ones, their friends, their homes, pets and all their worldly possessions, do we really have a right to complain if the cost of our ammo goes up a few cents as a result of the tragedy that has happened.

General Geoff
March 19, 2011, 01:12 AM
Seriously in the wake of what happened to the people of Japan as a result of the tsunami do we really have the audacity to complain that ammo might go up a few cents. Thousands of people lost their lives, thousands more lost everything including loved ones, their friends, their homes, pets and all their worldly possessions, do we really have a right to complain if the cost of our ammo goes up a few cents!
Yes we do have a right to complain. We also have a right to ignore those who complain.

Snowdog
March 19, 2011, 01:23 AM
I doubt the materials needed to repair the reactors and related infrastructure will drive prices up to any noticeable degree... but perhaps the reaction by those who fear it might, will.

Though it's understandable, I honestly do believe it's those who immediately begin to stockpile that have the most profound effect on the price of ammunition and components.

david58
March 19, 2011, 01:51 AM
How much ammo, gold, guns, silver, and bottled water has fear sold? Doin' a bangup job so far....

nwilliams
March 19, 2011, 03:08 AM
Though it's understandable, I honestly do believe it's those who immediately begin to stockpile that have the most profound effect on the price of ammunition and components.
Exactly!

Yes we do have a right to complain. We also have a right to ignore those who complain.
I'm sorry but complaining that something might go up slightly in cost as a result of a humanitarian disaster doesn't seem very high road to me. Also there is no evidence that the cost of ammo will go up as a result of what happened in Japan, so until it does let's not worry because that only leads to mass panic buys which then leads to price hikes.

RDCL
March 19, 2011, 03:22 AM
Don't see how there could ever be a shortage of lead. Shooting ranges all over the country must be collecting tons of it from year-to-year.

Russ

RS14
March 19, 2011, 03:25 AM
Virtually all of the copper from downed wires will be reclaimed and recycled by someone (not necessarily the owners). This should keep copper prices from rising substantially.

I cannot find figures for the mass of lead shielding in a typical reactor. I would guess a few thousand tonnes. However, annual lead production is about 8,000,000 tonnes. I would not expect this to cause any substantial change in prices.

Gromky
March 19, 2011, 03:30 AM
I would agree, won't matter for us. Unless people freak out like they did after the last presidential election and buy everything faster than it can be produced. The people stealing copper from the local construction site will be more of a problem

Diggers
March 19, 2011, 05:03 AM
Doubt there will be much repair work done there. The place is pretty radio active now so I don't see them buying up a bunch of lead to rebuild the reactor buildings.

BTW I'm not even sure lead is used in the construction.

blume357@bellsouth.net
March 19, 2011, 05:12 AM
From what I've learned as of late, the powers that be... whom ever that is... will raise the price on anything if the news media will print that the price might go up.

Heck, gas prices will go up if Britney Spears goes back in rehab.... so, I'm sure ammo prices will go up because of Japan's troubles....

Now it might just have to do with the fact that the world's 3rd largest economy has pretty much shut down....

PRM
March 19, 2011, 05:50 AM
Heck, gas prices will go up if Britney Spears goes back in rehab....

Now that's funny. From what I see any excuse is as good as another to jack up the price on gas. OK we have had storms..... Then supply and demand, after all people take vacations around Memorial Day... Now, (this week) we got plenty of gas and oil and they said the other night supply and demand was not driving this one, it was speculators.

Don't seem take any more than a soft wind to start the fleecing. And yes the oil companies always manage to turn in record breaking profits. Its a shame we can't get people in office that will start to move toward using what we have here instead of relying on foreign oil.

My heart and prayers go out to those suffering in Japan. I'm not really worried about prices in ammo rising. If there is a worst case, I might get back into black powder shooting a little more. Got plenty of that cached.

mes227
March 19, 2011, 06:30 AM
How much ammo, gold, guns, silver, and bottled water has fear sold? Doin' a bangup job so far....

And don't forget potassium iodine tablets as the "cure" for fallout contamination (though the cure can be as bad as the disease).

As to lead costs, world-wide production is between 8 and 10 million tonnes annually (the data is a bit sketchy because a lot of production is secondary that comes from non-lead mining (i.e., as a bi-product from zinc, etc). A lot of lead from mining gets disposed of as a waste because the market is often very soft and, as a bi-product, it's easier to disposal of than try and sell. Thus, even if there were a bump in demand production would quickly fill the void.

Copper, on the other hand, has been in short supply for several years, and we've seen the price rise from the $0.60-$0.80/lb range (where it sat for almost a decade) to $4.50 currently. As the world economy starts to recover copper prices - which has an inelastic supply in the short term as new mines take almost 10 years to bring on line - could rise sharply.

A much bigger issue is not the repair (or more likely decommissioning) of this one nuclear power plant but rather the 130 new plants in the planning stages around the world.

I agree with the humanitarian comments herein and in my view the issue isn't ammo prices but rather the cost of reconstruction, as there will be limited money (there always is) and higher costs will prolong the suffering. At an estimated damage level of $180 billion (per ASCE this week) there will be acute shortages of essentially all construction materials in the region for several years. On a less humanitarian note, investing in futures of portland cement might be a wise move.

Larry Ashcraft
March 19, 2011, 06:32 AM
This one is going nowhere good, and was a real stretch in the first place (off topic).

JShirley
March 19, 2011, 10:42 AM
Everybody has a guess, and they're all equally valuable.

This is a popular, and completely incorrect, idea. Educated and experienced opinions are significantly more valuable than Joe Sixpack's.

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