[Seeker]

Have heard a lot of chatter about mid-feb or mid-march. Talk of needing the time to build up troop concentrations.

New Moon is Feb.1 and I am inclined to believe the Air War will begin then. Seems you don't need quite the troop concentrations to begin the Air War. IIRC there are several carrier groups in that area. B-52s are on Diego Garcia and B-2s operate out of the CONUS.

Opinions?

Disclaimer: Still not convinced that SaDamn is a threat to the US (his nieghbors aren't too worried about him - and if the last ten years non-complians was a big issue for W. he should have campainged on it), but I think a war is likely.

[Wildalaska]

It wont

WildkeepinmyfingerscrossedAlaska

[Nightcrawler]

Lot of guys from the units in my area have gotten called up. Lots of friends and friends of friends. Not sure yet if I'm going to get activated.

In any case, I'm keeping my fingers crossed too. Saddam's generals are getting nervous. They're probably looking around, thinking "do I really want to die for this jerk?"

Maybe there'll be a coup or something. If there's a war, we'll win, but a lot of people will die. God willing we can avoid that.

[DadOfThree]

I don't think it will start until mid Feb. New moon would be good but a huge hospital ship left Baltimore harbor about 2 weeks ago. It will take about 4 weeks to get there and I don't see them starting the war without it. OTOH, they may start an air campaign before that date becuase an air war, even if there are casualties, will not produce large numbers of people needing hospital care. I really don't think that a ground war is going to cause large numbers of US casualties either but you have to be prepared. Even Saddam could get lucky.

[Schuey2002]

I doubt that any military action will be taken until after Colin Powell speaks to the U.N. next week. ;)

[Jim March]

I've got this real bad feeling that the moment Sodamncrazy gets ahold of three nukes, ol' number 3 will make a sudden appearance in New York harbor in a rowboat with a flea-bitten wild-eyed Arab nutcase at the helm.

Why #3?

Saddam'll keep the first one he gets as a "rainy day" thing. He'll keep the second as a backup to #1. But #3...that one goes to Osama Yo Mama and par-boils NYC.

Dunno that I feel like waitin' that long.

Then again, I ain't headin' over there myself...the servicemen and reservists oughta be able to vote on it, is my opinion.

[DonP]

The 101st is still at Ft. Campbell.

IMHO

I don't think things will really get going until they get deployment orders. But as an airborne unit that could happen in 72 hours, or even less if they already have their "stay close to home - all leaves are cancelled" orders.

The other factor is the movement of the M1 Abrams tanks to deployment positions in Turkey and other staging areas.

My son (US Army) just got transferred to a new unit and his transfer was moved up 60 days from a mid April date to next Friday! He was also told not to transfer his household goods because he would not be at his new unit's HQ for more than 1 to 3 weeks before deployment.

I may be wrong but it does seem like the pace is picking up.

Don P.

[Viking6]

"Then again, I ain't headin' over there myself...the servicemen and reservists oughta be able to vote on it, is my opinion."

I respectfully submit that they voted when they enlisted or accepted a commission.

[10-Ring]

I would guess 12 hours after the weapons inspectors exit Iraq.

[ReadyontheRight]

I'm also keeping my fingers crossed that it won't begin.

We need to send troops over there as a show of force but hopefully "we're here to support the overthrow of your torturer" and air support will do the job and get the Iraqis to do it themselves.

Many thanks to those of you in active military and reserves.

[philhir]

By the time everything is in place............I'm guessing late March.

[gun-fucious]

February 21st

[Ian]

Well, I'd guess that as long as inspectors are there, Bush won't make any moves - if he did, the inspectors would be as good as dead. So let's keep our eyes on inspection activity.

[4v50 Gary]

Sept 11, 2001. This is just another chapter.

[foghornl]

4v50 Gary:

You have the start date nailed. The United States is already at war, just as surely as we were on the next day after Dec 7, 1941.

Book 2 of the War...I don't know when that will start, but very,very soon. See my sig line.

[Seeker]

Note that many of you seem to be thinking in terms of ground war, troop and tank movements. I expect that this war* will begin like the last with an extended air campaign.

I thought of the Colin Powell angle re: his address to the UN, but perhaps that will be to explain why the US started dropping bombs. sometimes it is better to ask forgiveness rather than permission - school of thought

Seems like the New Moon is best time to start air campaign. Would anybody (other than SaDamn) be suprised by massive air strikes Feb. 1?


*Some say the war started 9/11/01, I suspect osama and his mama say it started back in '91. Sme say the US is justified in pre-emptive attacks because SaDamn violated treaty agreements re; cessation of hostilities in '92 so this is just a continuation of the Gulf War.

[PATH]

February 12 their time in Baghdad about 4am.

Why Saddam will fight. Saddam's support comes primcipally from the 20% Sunni group. The rest of the country is Shiite in the south and Kurd in the north. The Sunni's there will fight as they are tied to Saddam. How long will it last> 96 hours.

My .02 cents!

[Azrael256]

I'm hoping for Feb. 9th, since that is my 21st birthday. I'll be able to buy a six-pack and watch the fireworks.

All the talk lately has been real tough, but there just hasn't been that "this is the last straw" sort of thing happening. Bush 41 made it abundantly clear that Saddam had until, IIRC, Jan 15th, 1991 to clear out of Kuwait. He specifically stated that it was not a deadline to prevent military action, but the ultimatum was pretty clear. I haven't seen that sort of "do this or we smack you down like a red-headed stepchild" talk yet (although I am a little isolated at times from news, so I could be oblivious to it). I don't know how one would issue a clear ultimatum in this case. Searching for WMD isn't as easy as looking on the Kuwaiti side of the border for tanks with Iraqi flags. When a clear ultimatum comes out, and I mean real clear, I'll try to guess with accuracy when the war will start. For now... I'll say Feb. 14th.

[F=ma]

New moon, all forces in place, and these things "come in three's"
:neener:

[jmbg29]

3/3/03 No more calls please, we have a winner!

[4v50 Gary]

That's half of 6/6/6. EOTWAWKI! :) No more taxes! :D

[Khornet]

...when the fascist hegemons of the Bush junta are instructed by their corporate masters, who want Iraq's oil even if it screws up their profits, just out of sheer bloodthirstiness. And they in turn are, as we all know, in the pocket of the Zionist world conspiracy.

Oh, and there was no holocaust, either.

[jmbg29]

Now that's more like the Che I know!ROTFLMAO:evil:

[Desertdog]

Light is not wanted for night operations.
With this in mind, my guess is about the 16th of March, to take advantage of the darkness of the new moon which is the 18th of March.
My son, a Marine, went to Kuwait last weekend so I don't want war to start, but I realize it has to or we will be attacked at here like they are in Isreal.

[Desertdog]

I misread my calendar and thought the symbol for the full moon was the symbol for the new moon.
I think it will be close to the new moon to have more days of darkness.
My guess is 3/1/03

[hammer4nc]

nightcrawler said:

Saddam's generals are getting nervous. They're probably looking around, thinking "do I really want to die for this jerk?"

Agree: highest probability is that coup will take place (or forced exile agreement).

Second most likely scenario...Saddam will be caught travelling, his motorcade will be turned to a cinder, by smart ordnance. Elapsed time: 30 seconds. Assuming the watchers (satellite, predator, ground intel) are now in place, the start date will be determined more by *when* they can get a high confidence shot, rather than strategic considerations, troop placement, moon phase, etc.

The big question, following SH's departure, will be who will fill the power vacuum?

[44Caliber]

Seeker:
With all due respect you sound like Neville Chamberlain in the 1930-1940's when he returned after conference with Hitler. He was totally "sucked in" and died in disgrace!
Suddam and his offspring should be eliminated ASAP
I am with Bush 100%
44 Caliber

[Seeker]

you sound like Neville Chamberlain in the 1930-1940's Brrrrrr....that's cold.

IIRC, Chamberline was giving away countries that weren't his and then claimind to have achieved Peace in Our Time.

SaDamn isn't trying to occupy any other countries, and his neighbors haven't been too worried about him. Not worried enough to organize against him and not worried enough support the US moving against SaDamn without much pressure, and in the case of Turkey a big fat pay-off (billions of dollars).

I don't see any appeasement in my statements and in fact I closed by saying that I think war is likely.


I am with Bush 100% Like when he signed The Patriot Act? Or announced his New Deal with Tax Cuts, no budget cuts and a war that will cost billions (trillions) and grow the defiect at an alarming rate? (note: I am in favor of reducing/eliminating Fed. taxes, but when you increase spending the money has to come from somewhere

Get real dude, this thread isn't about should we, it's about when.

[Ol' Badger]

My brothers company cleans up toxic waste and what not. He's contracted to go to Kwait on Feb. 9th? I bet its over by then!!!