Handgun Economic Fodder


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SharpsDressedMan
March 4, 2012, 10:59 PM
Pondering the accumulation of handguns for barter in tough economic and disrupted social times. Ammo is also good, and can be traded for other things needed, should a severe economic or other disaster occur, but what about guns as a place to put your savings? What if you couldn't get your money out of a bank or other investment, and such just wasn't getting you enough "interest" to bother with it? Would handguns be a good comodity to invest in? I'm thinking about snatching up used Glocks, one at a time, to stock away, along with other items that could be traded or bartered for...whatever......

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kbbailey
March 4, 2012, 11:18 PM
my $.02?.....as good as gold? not quite. Darn certain that it is better than dollars on interest though.

bbuddtec
March 4, 2012, 11:19 PM
I wouldn't blame you, it sure is a commodity already :D

dogtown tom
March 5, 2012, 12:30 AM
When guns become the most valuable commodity....you sure as heck aren't going to be trading them to anyone. While I'll gladly arm friends and loved ones I'm not arming strangers....no matter how much gold or beer they have.


Gunless: Uh.....I'll trade you five loaves of bread, two gold coins, an orange and three cans of beans for one of your Glocks.

Gunrich: Uh....I'll take all that plus your boots, that watch and your tactical wheelbarrow.....That's why I'm gonna let you go. I'm gonna give you to the count of three to get your lousy, lyin', low-down, four flushing carcass OUT my door! 1... 2...Merry Christmas, you filthy animal....:evil:

iblong
March 5, 2012, 08:13 AM
I think its not a bad idea at all,and infact have started doing that to some degree.I use to be pretty carefull about my fire arms purchases and my budget,Not so much anymore.At the rate our economy is going money in the bank may not be worth much.I have watched my retirement drop and drop and drop since 911 and the crash,Ive cut back on the money I put in.
I have cut out most activities that cost me money.With the exceptions of the shooting sports.I buy fire arms when a deal comes along,But I buy the ones I can turn quick if I need cash,Im not talking collectables but things like Glocks,S&W,CZ ect.I reload ammo for every thing I shoot an buy component in bulk.I enjoy them while I can and will part with them as needed.
Worst case senairial my Kids will be well set up when I pass.
Bob.

seikdel
March 5, 2012, 09:50 AM
I work with a doctor who's a class 3 dealer. When I asked him about how often he goes shooting, he told me, "I don't really like shooting. The reason I'm a dealer is because guns are the only thing going up faster than gold right now. It's my retirement plan."

mes227
March 5, 2012, 10:10 AM
my $.02?.....as good as gold? not quite. Darn certain that it is better than dollars on interest though.

It depends on the nature of the collapse. In a minor economic upheaval you're probably right. Though over the past 100 years guns have been a better investment than gold, and gold is not out performing most other commodities, it's just better known. And the problem with gold is when the economy recovers gold price collapses (remember it rocketing to $800 then collapsing to as low as $258? The current average cost of production for US gold mines is $550 an ounce. There's no good reason for the long-term price to be 3 or 4 times costs -- the laws of supply and demand dictate otherwise and the mining industry itself is doing long-range planning on prices in the $1,200 range.

In the event of a general global collapse, which we got very close to recently, there's no good reason to think gold would hold it's value. It has no real uses in that 'economy' and the value is entirely fiat - that is, by agreement or perception, and when that perception changes so does the value. Guns and ammo, on the other hand, have value apart from perception. Food (and perhaps medicine) will be the most valuable, but food is bulky and doesn't store as well as firearms and ammunition. A well armed family is simply going to do better in a collapse than otherwise and that gives these value beyond gold.

If I were planning on the general collapse scenario and had to pick one metal to 'invest' in, it would be lead!

kbbailey
March 5, 2012, 10:38 AM
had to pick one metal to 'invest' in, it would be lead!

Now there's an idea!! I fully expect the EPA to ban lead some day.

jackpinesavages
March 5, 2012, 10:48 AM
Absolutely. I'm watching some auctions now. As we get closer to this Mayan/apocalypse/Bilderberg finale, basic items such as handguns and water filtration systems will skyrocket.

jim243
March 5, 2012, 12:07 PM
I would consider trading ammo for food and water, but not firearms. I just don't think it would be wise.

Now as to guns as an investment, the more well known brands will hold their value and increase in worth than the lower end ones. But it's worth will be subject to availability of ammo for it.

Jim

hogshead
March 5, 2012, 12:17 PM
I think that guns are defintely a good investment , and I am doing the same thing . Although I am leaning more to 22lr rifles and pistols and ammo. I think if the economy does tank you would be better off with cheap guns to trade since most people wont have much to trade anyways.

Certaindeaf
March 5, 2012, 12:37 PM
When guns become the most valuable commodity....you sure as heck aren't going to be trading them to anyone. While I'll gladly arm friends and loved ones I'm not arming strangers....no matter how much gold or beer they have.


Gunless: Uh.....I'll trade you five loaves of bread, two gold coins, an orange and three cans of beans for one of your Glocks.

Gunrich: Uh....I'll take all that plus your boots, that watch and your tactical wheelbarrow.....That's why I'm gonna let you go. I'm gonna give you to the count of three to get your lousy, lyin', low-down, four flushing carcass OUT my door! 1... 2...Merry Christmas, you filthy animal....:evil:
Robbery is not nice.

mes227
March 5, 2012, 12:41 PM
When guns become the most valuable commodity....you sure as heck aren't going to be trading them to anyone. While I'll gladly arm friends and loved ones I'm not arming strangers....no matter how much gold or beer they have.


Every successful society has traded weapons with its allies (and often even with its enemies). Some of the most powerful became so through exactly this. Yes, you need to do so carefully but it's the wise and prepared who will be most successful.

pockets
March 5, 2012, 01:21 PM
Drat! I missed that episode of 'Doomsday Preppers'.

Although, I'd opt for silver over gold. Silver can be used on both werewolves and vampires.

.

19-3Ben
March 5, 2012, 03:17 PM
Why focus on handguns?

A Mosin Nagant can be had for $80, will already be covered in enough cosmo that you don't have to do anything to preserve it, and would likely be as valuable as a handgun (if not even more so) in some kind of collapse. I feel like with a much much lower investment, there is probably going to be a similar return.
It's also very easy to stock up on ammo which would make for good trade-fodder. Of course a non-standard caliber will detract from value later on, and this must be taken into account.

I'm kind of impressed so far that people seem to be sticking to the economics of the situation rather than bogging this down into SHTF subject matter and getting the thread locked.

SigMic
March 5, 2012, 03:45 PM
......but what about guns as a place to put your savings?....
Best off to go with a bigger caliber. Otherwise you're going to have to roll the bills real tight.

19-3Ben
March 5, 2012, 03:50 PM
Best off to go with a bigger caliber. Otherwise you're going to have to roll the bills real tight.

Yeah well, with my savings right now, I could probably get away with .17hmr.:eek:

kbbailey
March 5, 2012, 09:08 PM
Since I'm gonna be trading my corn for all yer wimmin.....I'm gonna need a good supply of lead to defend the corn that I keep to feed the wimmin....so I can rent the.......

...this is getting complicated.

Certaindeaf
March 5, 2012, 09:52 PM
^
I hear you. They don't tax corn liquor and tobacco for nothin'.. people want/need it.

PabloJ
March 6, 2012, 02:08 AM
Pondering the accumulation of handguns for barter in tough economic and disrupted social times. Ammo is also good, and can be traded for other things needed, should a severe economic or other disaster occur, but what about guns as a place to put your savings? What if you couldn't get your money out of a bank or other investment, and such just wasn't getting you enough "interest" to bother with it? Would handguns be a good comodity to invest in? I'm thinking about snatching up used Glocks, one at a time, to stock away, along with other items that could be traded or bartered for...whatever......
If the other side closes person to person w/in state loophole you investments will "go up in smoke" or is it "down the drain"? I prefer to put my $ into collectable coins.

Andrew Wyatt
March 6, 2012, 06:04 PM
My daddy taught me two things.

1. Never sell a gun.

2. Never turn down free food.

SharpsDressedMan
March 6, 2012, 06:47 PM
"If the other side closes person to person w/in state loophole you investments will "go up in smoke" or is it "down the drain"? I prefer to put my $ into collectable coins."

In a full blown depression, complete with rises in violent crimes, etc, do you really think any BS gun laws are going to be obeyed, or BE ABLE TO BE ENFORCED?

Canfield
March 6, 2012, 06:50 PM
I'm an economics professor. I recommend you buy guns because you enjoy them or you have some use for them, not as an investment.

You'll want to be prepared in the event of a disaster; however, if one strikes, it's not likely that you'll waste time either lamenting the money you lost in your 401k or scheming to become the richest refugee on the block.

19-3Ben
March 6, 2012, 06:54 PM
if one strikes, it's not likely that you'll waste time either lamenting the money you lost in your 401k or scheming to become the richest refugee on the block.

I don't think this is about being a "rich refugee." I think this is about having good trade fodder so that you can trade a gun to someone in exchange for items that might help you survive (ie. food, water filtration, fire starting supplies, blankets/clothing, shelter, etc...).
You're the expert here, but I assume that once currency becomes worthless we'll be back to the ye' olde barter of goods system pretty soon!

Jaymo
March 6, 2012, 07:03 PM
If you have guns and ammo, you can have all the food/supplies you want.

Canfield
March 6, 2012, 07:47 PM
I think this is about having good trade fodder so that you can trade a gun to someone in exchange for items that might help you survive (ie. food, water filtration, fire starting supplies, blankets/clothing, shelter, etc...).

Wouldn't it be easier to buy that stuff now than to stockpile some other commodity hoping you can barter for those items in the event that things get so bad you have to barter?

SharpsDressedMan
March 6, 2012, 08:57 PM
Guns and ammo stockpile and store more easily than toilet paper and food.

mes227
March 7, 2012, 09:31 AM
Wouldn't it be easier to buy that stuff now than to stockpile some other commodity hoping you can barter for those items in the event that things get so bad you have to barter?

Perhaps. But you can't possible prepare fully for every possible type of disaster. So, what I your are well prepared for, say a general economic collapse but failed to anticipate a nuclear disaster. While you have plenty of beans and water you have no potassium iodine or docimeters.

PabloJ
March 7, 2012, 10:15 AM
Perhaps. But you can't possible prepare fully for every possible type of disaster. So, what I your are well prepared for, say a general economic collapse but failed to anticipate a nuclear disaster. While you have plenty of beans and water you have no potassium iodine or docimeters.
I keep two week supply of food and water. I would not buy more because if car runs over me it would be shame for large stockpile to go bad. Never understood people who buy Christmas stuff after holiday at reduced cost to use next year....never plan that far ahead myself.

Canfield
March 7, 2012, 01:33 PM
Perhaps. But you can't possible prepare fully for every possible type of disaster. So, what I your are well prepared for, say a general economic collapse but failed to anticipate a nuclear disaster. While you have plenty of beans and water you have no potassium iodine or docimeters.
You also can't anticipate what someone else in a hypothetical barter situation might want in exchange for their goods. That's one of the problems with barter.

eldon519
March 7, 2012, 02:03 PM
If you collected Mauser Broomhandles, GI 1911s, German Lugers, Colt Peacemakers and so on, I think you could end up with a portfolio that is valuable in both good and bad times. If you've got a heap of police turn-in Glocks, I don't think you'd ever get your money back unless you are gambling on coming out ahead in the Apocolypse.

Certaindeaf
March 7, 2012, 04:50 PM
Guns and ammo stockpile and store more easily than toilet paper and food.
Cheez Wiz lasts four thousand years and costs forty seven cent. Give me all your amoe and I'll let you smell it.

MtnCreek
March 7, 2012, 05:12 PM
If this is a plot to convince your wife that purchasing a lot more guns is a sound financial plan, then I’m all for it. If your wife is going to read this thread, let me know and I'll delete this post so she doesn't get wind of your plan. ;)

I don't think you'd ever get your money back unless you are gambling on coming out ahead in the Apocolypse.
If you're in it, you kinda already missed the boat...:eek:

cougar1717
March 7, 2012, 06:32 PM
for barter in tough economic and disrupted social times

Bomb shelter sales through the roof.

Ammo and gun sales back up.

This is how I know it's an election year!

SharpsDressedMan
March 7, 2012, 06:58 PM
Unlike the stock market, guns don't seem to lose 30% in a bad econimic year.................

beatledog7
March 7, 2012, 07:12 PM
Two ponderings:

The US Gov't once confiscated all civilian-held gold, or most of it anyway. They've never done the same regarding firearms.

When the economy goes kaput and "precious" metals' intrinsic value will be proven to be only speculative. A coin is functionally worthless when nobody is willing to trade anything for it.

dogtown tom
March 7, 2012, 07:25 PM
beatledog7 ....The US Gov't once confiscated all civilian-held gold, or most of it anyway.

Only bullion, not coins.

SharpsDressedMan
March 7, 2012, 08:49 PM
By demanding surrender of gold certificate and silver certificate curency, the US government pretty much confiscated the gold and pure silver coin.

dogtown tom
March 7, 2012, 11:29 PM
SharpsDressedMan By demanding surrender of gold certificate and silver certificate curency, the US government pretty much confiscated the gold and pure silver coin.
Uh........they printed silver certificates into the mid 1960's. At no time was anyone required to surrender any silver certificate. Gold certificates had to be turned in in 1933.

Dr_B
March 8, 2012, 12:34 AM
My thoughts on societal collapse:

- Have one, maybe two, reliable revolvers, a rifle, and a shotgun. One of the handguns, and maybe the rifle, should be in .22lr.

- Have a fixed-bladed knife.

- Have a few boxes of ammo for all guns. But have lots of .22lr. .22's will be currency. They're light and can serve all sorts of purposes. For weapons other than .22, ammo is heavier. If you have to move somewhere else, how much .45ACP can you reasonably carry? Not as much as you could carry if it were .22lr.

- Money you had in the bank or in stocks, etc. will be worthless. Forget about it. Skills you possess will make you worth something.

- Hunting will only go so far. The .22 will be the cartridge of choice for killing game and that will not be due to its power. What do you think will happen to the animals available to hunt once everyone is hungry? How long will the blackbirds, deer, pheasant, and neighborhood pets last when everyone suddenly has to find their own meat? If you shoot an animal with a high-powered rifle, everyone who can hear it will know that A. You have a rifle and ammo and B. You probably now have food. Shoot it with a .22 and at least fewer people will know.

Books to read on the topic:

- One Second After

- Earth Abides

- Alas, Babylon

- The Road

Certaindeaf
March 8, 2012, 12:43 AM
.Skills you possess will make you worth something. .

True. Honor and ability do and will have worth.

psyopspec
March 8, 2012, 01:19 AM
what about guns as a place to put your savings?

I've tried to cover both my bases. I used to be someone who made very, very poor financial decisions but in recent years I've tried to turn that around.

1) Retirement plan - Stocks, options, mutual funds, real estate. I contribute at least 10% of my income (and try to hit 20%) for retirment. My goal is pretty traditional - growth on average in the 8-10% range, and early retirement if I hit a set number. I'm a hands-on guy who dabbles in a variety of investment philosophies (i.e. both random walk and value investing), but so far I've done better than the market so I know its possible.

2) Survival plan - 30 day supply of food on hand (next goal is 6 months). 2 weeks worth of water on hand, with the option to filter more (long-term goal is to have an out of the way place with a well). A modest gun collection and ammo to feed them. Decent aid bag on hand (long-term goal is to meet and marry a good-looking trauma surgeon :) ).

Plan 2 exists in case plan 1 fails. It's completely separate, and I don't cross the wires on the plans; I wouldn't cash out my 401k and IRA for firearms.

To me, if scenario 1 fails due to the economy, retirement as I had hoped it would be is now gone. While it's possible that certain firearms will go up in value, there's also a chance that the law could be changed to turn you into a felon for continuing to hold your collection, and separate from any lawless SHTF scenario. Examples NFA '34, GCA '68, AWB '94. In that case, your investment goes to zero or damn near. I consider it possible enough that I wouldn't bet my retirement on it.

SharpsDressedMan
March 8, 2012, 01:33 AM
Silver certificates have been withdrawn from circulation continually by the Feds for years, whenever they pass through systems allowing for same (just as worn out bills are pulled). Collectors, etc, still hang on to some, but probably 95% or more have been removed from circulation. Your paper money will no longer get you real silver anymore....may be silver plated copper (or now, maybe even a cheaper metal alloy). As our economy fails, so will the effectiveness of government. With less taxes resulting from less nationwide employment, government layoffs will cause social services to decline, and that will include law enforcement. Any new gun bans will, in all practicality, probably not be enforceable, and the problem of prison space will become a bigger one as there will be less money for prisons and guards. With the number of guns in civilian hands, and all the other problems that will escalate from a collapse, do you really think any remaining police will be able to disarm the populace, or dare to try? Katrina's gun confiscations were only possible because the disaster wasn't big enough, and people will only be fooled once (well, maybe twice:rolleyes:)

Owen Sparks
March 8, 2012, 01:35 AM
I have posted this before but some survivalist bought a pallet of .22 LR in bricks to use as barter items in case of an economic collapse.

Dr_B
March 15, 2012, 03:32 AM
After all the stuff I posted in #40 above, I still have a couple of guns I rarely use and am holding onto only because they are no longer made. Let's all hope we never have to find out for real how far a brick of .22's will go as currency!

jackpinesavages
March 15, 2012, 08:57 AM
Hey Doc B, is your sig line from Tom Robbins?

psyopspec
March 15, 2012, 09:46 AM
Any new gun bans will, in all practicality, probably not be enforceable

Why not? Despite the hope of a certain segment that sits in mom's basement and fantasizes about SHTF scenarios, our society is not a collapsed one. You could make a good argument that the US is in decline, or that it's going that direction. In my glorious birthplace of Wahpeton, North Dakota the police are still hassling teenagers out past curfew, so why would a gun ban be unenforceable if it happened tomorrow?

Further, if we're talking about a federal ban of one kind or another we now have more federal law enforcement officers than at any other time in history. Both they and the local/municipal/county types are much more militarized than they've ever been in equipment and tactics. Slap a terror label on violators of the new ban and incorporate it into the see something, say something psychological operations that Homeland is running, and there will also be public support.

To relate it back to the OP, those class 3 items you put your retirement into then become worthless in dollars but rich in the hard time they can get you if you don't turn them in during the amnesty period. Fair warning, I've spent more time out of the country than in it these last couple years, so maybe y'all are living The Road and I just haven't gotten the memo here. Or is there another reason new bans would be unenforceable?

Dr_B
March 15, 2012, 03:37 PM
@ jackpinesavages: It's from The Lyttle Lytton Contest.

SharpsDressedMan
March 15, 2012, 10:09 PM
psyopspec, my belief regarding the economic collapse is that we will face the weakening and reduction of of all levels of government, and their ability to enforce law as a result of widespread public chaos, and WAY less police to interdict. Consider this: the US dollar suffers global devaluation due to our government buying things it can't afford, printing money it can't back, and selling off assets to foreign countries. We will suffer a lack of confidence in the international market, and unless our total workforce accepts less money for what they do, we will not compete with foreign manufacturers, etc. If a drastic reduction of our present tax base disappears, then those public employees that are paid with those taxes will be laid off. They are not going to show up for work for free. The government might still try to print money to avoid this, but that will just make our money buy less on the international scene. If there are less police, people will care less about compliance with laws the government passes, especially if those laws don't do anything constructive.

BLB68
March 15, 2012, 10:21 PM
I'm personally stocking up on TP in the event I need barter material. Trust me, when the TP runs out, people will be willing to trade. :D

psyopspec
March 16, 2012, 02:37 AM
Sharps, I agree that what you describe could be a very likely eventuality. The bigger issue is the timeline. Plenty of people thought it would have happened by now, others think it's happened and we the people just don't recognize it yet. Or it could come to pass next week, or it might be decades longer.

A serious attempt at a gun ban is certainly not out of the question in the next 4 years though, depending in how the elections go.

As always, diversification of investments is the best way to go. Currently, guns generally don't make for a good sector over the long term. A little preparation goes a long way, but if I had a family member who told me they were considering taking a significant portion of retirement savings to turn into firearms as an investment, I would advise caution.

SharpsDressedMan
March 16, 2012, 05:15 PM
I'll bet when they outlawed alcohol, it sold very well and for bigger money than before the ban. I expect guns and ammunition to do the same.

psyopspec
March 16, 2012, 11:32 PM
Sure, one could have made a killing on pre ban gear during the AWB. What if the next one doesn't have a grandfather clause? I wouldn't risk drawing a mandatory 20 year federal assault weapons charge over a Glock magazine that I'd "invested" in. Nor wld i want to be caught near anyone trying to sell the same. Again, we're talking about a matter of timing and being at the mercy of whatever's in that law.

...but I certainly wouldn't report you for doing it. :)

Jaymo
March 17, 2012, 01:57 AM
I'm stocking up on TP, toothpaste, razor blades, and soap.
Nobody wants to live in a country full of smelly, unkempt people after living in the alternative.
Bring on the shaveocalypse.

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