Expect Ammo and Component Shortages


PDA






john wall
March 8, 2012, 03:17 PM
http://i256.photobucket.com/albums/hh175/ShootingCoach/grafs.gif

Take it for what it is worth. Buy your stuff NOW.

If you enjoyed reading about "Expect Ammo and Component Shortages" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!
GLOOB
March 8, 2012, 03:19 PM
And thus, the self-fulfilling prophecy begins. :) I already got my orders in.

jmorris
March 8, 2012, 03:25 PM
I would ask the folks that don't shoot much to go look in their closets and take a look at all the stuff they horded 4 years ago and didn't use before helping drive prices up again.

sellersm
March 8, 2012, 03:31 PM
And this from the guy at Tactical Defense Solutions:

A week or so ago I posted a Comm Center piece entitled Here We Go Again. In it I explained what we were about to see in the industry and cited other folks who were expecting the same things.

Since then the insanity escalation has jumped to full bore.

I called Stag Arms Monday to check on an existing order and got an answering machine. I got my call back this morning (Wednesday). The answer was an echo of what I'd received from YHM earlier this week - all new orders are backordered SIX (6) months!

YHM wont even take an order for lowers stripped or completed. Uppers are capable of being ordered but delivery can't even be quoted.

Part of the joys of running TDS is the daily phone calls to and from distributors. I'm hearing the same song over and over - no 5.56/223, AR's out of stock and ammunition supplies dwindling.

Aside from my advice from 4 years ago, that being to Calm Down, do yourselves a favor and learn to forecast. Figure out your projected needs over the next 6 months to a year and then plan to have that on hand. If you reload, now is a good time to put in an order with your favorite source. If you have courses or matches scheduled, get your supplies ordered.

If you absolutely have to buy your 17th AR in preparation for the end of the world, well your on your own.......

Muddydogs
March 8, 2012, 03:46 PM
Yep here it comes and guys can say what they want, beg and plead on the forums not to panic buy but when you have company's like Graf and Son posting this on there web site what do you think is going to happen? Lets face it why wouldn't the retailers and suppliers want to hype this stuff? It would make perfect sense for them to have guys posting on message boards getting the party started, they tend to make millions off the panic.

I heard speculation that retailers were going to see less sales after the last panic because everyone was stocked. Well from what I have seen there has been a steady flow of gun related purchases since then and this election will probably put the icing on the cake for an industry that never knows from one election to the other if they will be able to sell there goods.

I guess this is all good for us as more and more people are seeing the light and buying guns and gear, now we just need them to vote the right people in office if there is any right people.

bds
March 8, 2012, 04:19 PM
I shoot a lot and although I usually have sufficient components on hand, the last "great shortage" made me irritated.

Since then, I have been buying extra components whenever I saw a good sale.

Another factor is that with the election year coming up, many may elect to stock up on components with tax refunds ... I think it will be simple supply-and-demand.

Sky
March 8, 2012, 04:23 PM
With all the new gun purchases maybe some of the ammo is going for and to new owners.....just a thought?

Waywatcher
March 8, 2012, 06:06 PM
And thus, the self-fulfilling prophecy begins.

I love it. So true.

I might try to squirrel away some primers. They seemed to be the hardest thing to get last time, other than loaded ammo.

john wall
March 8, 2012, 09:44 PM
I am not trying to cause a problem, but after the last election, I worked at a gun shop.

It became a major effort to find ANYTHING to put on the rack. Some calibers and gauges were impossible to find for the better art of a year.

Many types of guns were not to be had.

I am not saying to prepare for the end of the world, but if you want to shoot this summer, buy ammo and components now.

Samari Jack
March 8, 2012, 09:56 PM
With all the new gun purchases maybe some of the ammo is going for and to new owners.....just a thought?
I think there is a lot of truth here. I was at a gun show recently and for the first time actually had to stand in line to get to the ticket purchasing booth. The place was packed and purchases were being made.

When someone buys a new guy, especially of a different caliber, they stock up on ammo just adding to the election year frenzy of ammo buying.

Old krow
March 8, 2012, 10:18 PM
With all the new gun purchases maybe some of the ammo is going for and to new owners.....just a thought?

Good! Now let's talk them into buying some of the niche calibers to bring the prices of those down and we'll be set.

beatledog7
March 8, 2012, 10:19 PM
I rarely buy loaded ammo anymore unless it's for the brass, but if I were in my LGS to buy the last couple of boxes of ammo, and a new brand new first-time gun owner needed it, I'd defer.

alsaqr
March 8, 2012, 10:43 PM
The rush is on for guns, ammo and loading components. The end of the world as we know is coming in January, 2013. We know this because the scurrilous promotors of gun shows, the owners of ammo warehouses, pawn shops, gun shops; ad nauseum, have told us so.

armoredman
March 8, 2012, 10:48 PM
I got the same message from Grafs, but haven't seen any shortages here, WalMart or at MidwayUSA. We'll see.

sweater914
March 8, 2012, 10:58 PM
Nothing new here, I ordered a 5.5in Ruger Redhawk in August '11, it still hasn't been built, called and e-mailed Ruger multiple times. I finally received my CC permit and ordered an LCP, which hopefully will in something less than 6 months.

The manager of the LGS mentioned that many of his vendors have asked for pre-order confirmations through Sept. Good thing I'm stocked for most of the year.

armoredman
March 8, 2012, 11:06 PM
Hmm, and there is a limited edition LCP at my local pawnshop, one of 3000 Arizona commemoratives. They had a few LCPs on the shelves.

FROGO207
March 8, 2012, 11:33 PM
Well if we could get all those new firearms owners to join the NRA and then vote responsibly this Nov we would have no problems in the future.:) One of the local TV stations (Bangor ME) had a news story that an alarming number of handguns are flying off the shelves in recent weeks and they claim it is due to the Bath Salts problem we have locally. :eek::banghead:

jfrey
March 8, 2012, 11:46 PM
Don't know if it is a sign of things to come but I was in Academy last week and their pistol counter was less than half full. They had a total of 3 Glocks when they normally stock a whole shelf of them. Not much else to look at either.

BullfrogKen
March 9, 2012, 12:44 AM
I'm sitting here at the O'Donnell Supply Depot with about 30,000 assorted primers and 50 pounds of powder. Half of it will be gone by December. I'll start placing my orders now, thank you very much.


Just last week I placed an order at MidwayUSA for a 500ct box of Sierra .223 - 69 gr MatchKings. I was happy to get them. I tried to place an order for a 500 ct box of Sierra 80 gr MatchKings. They're out of stock. Go look for yourself. NOBODY that I normally deal with had them.

Click the link (http://www.midwayusa.com/product/596664/sierra-matchking-bullets-22-caliber-224-diameter-80-grain-hollow-point-boat-tail-box-of-50)

back ordered until May

The SR-1 targets I wanted were out of stock, came back in stock for all of 1 day yesterday, and out again.



This ain't drumming up business. This is a nice, friendly warning.

Supply lines are stretched thin, and everyone in this industry is at maximum production capacity. If you want to have what you need for matches this year, or a training class, or a few fun trips to the range this summer, either order now, plan your order very soon, or be at the mercy of the stockouts.


The signs for another drought in components are already here. Graf's is being nice telling us what they know to be true about the state of the market. But even with the advance warning, I'll bet I'll see people here in June bitching about the rampant stockouts.

And I'll link back to this thread without pity.

GT1
March 9, 2012, 01:31 AM
I think the rush has been on for a while. Firearms were a big item last Christmas and the female population has been buying them up in the last year or two way over the norm.

Guns are popular and are getting more popular. I kind of think it is a good thing.

PapaGeno21
March 9, 2012, 01:36 AM
It is a great thing getting all new people into the hobby, just sucks when you have to stock up. I just ordered 14K primers from wideners. I never normally have more than 2k on hand but I am not goign to be dealing with a shortage. Bullets will be ordered next week for enough for two years, already have enough powder.

Too bad things can't just stay consistent and we don't have to go nuts and drop a ton of money at once. But what are ya gonna do.

thefamcnaj
March 9, 2012, 02:06 AM
I went to the local gun shop last week to by either .223 or 5.56 to go plinking with.
The owner said he had 8 boxes of .223 and that was it, so I bought all 8 boxes. He went on to tell me that his supplier told him to go ahead and order what he wants because ammo was going to get tight.
At first I thought that he was just trying to scare tactics to boost sales, taking advantage of South Carolinas proposed assault weapons ban.
So I left and went to three wal marts and they were all sold out. Then I went to academy Sports and all they had was hornady tap. I'm trying to not buy into the hype but I must admit I'm a little nervous. Its an election year, and SC is proposing the ban.

35 Whelen
March 9, 2012, 03:29 AM
I've never been an AR fan, but last October I noticed dealer price at Midway for a Del-Ton kits was $390, with lowers under $100, instant AR for less than $500. I did it. Now Midway is out of Del-Ton kits and they've jacked the price up to $439, at 12% increase. Likewise Del-Ton has increased their prices from a little over $400 to $470. Supply and demand, boys.
One way to fight this is to shoot something OTHER than .223 or 7.62x39. I have a few hundred pounds of lead, plenty of moulds, plenty of large rifle and large pistol primers, and Red Dot is always available, so I'll bee shooting .30 caliber cast alot until this round of silliness blows over.

35W

LightningMan
March 9, 2012, 08:18 AM
I remember hearing Black Friday (day after Thanksgiving) was the single largest day for background checks on gun buys. So this buying thing has been on a while. LM

Rodentman
March 9, 2012, 08:28 AM
I might buy a gun that stikes my fancy, but I have enough bullets, powder, and especially primers to last me well over a year. So I won't be caught short this time, and I won't be contributing to the frenzy. One LGS is charging $5/100 for primers. Wonder what they'll be in the summer.

beatledog7
March 9, 2012, 08:30 AM
Retailers warn of a shortage, based on the history they have seen. Buyers agree; it's time to stock up. Suppliers/distributors note that many manufacturers are running behind at filling bulk orders...

If all this is true, one wonders why the manufacturers of ammo and components were asleep at the switch. Don't they study the markets? Or was it a shortage of raw materials? But don't the collectors and refiners of the required raw materials study the markets?

Consider these possibilities:

Levels of supply are normal; no shortage is actually looming. The industry recognizes a way to experience increased profits by withholding supply for a short time, foregoing sales revenue in one quarter to enjoy significantly higher profits on those same sales in future quarters by artificially bumping up prices for as long as consumers can be made to believe the higher price is justified due to shortages.

Inventories are fat, and retailers prefer to turn stock at full retail or even at a premium rather than at a discount. A fictional shortage, accompanied by carefully controlled release of existing stocks, creates an environment in which discounts are not needed.

I'm not saying there won't be any sort of real short-term shortage of some items; such things are part of normal cycles. But we can make shortages much worse by being afraid of them.

35 Whelen
March 9, 2012, 08:54 AM
Thinking back, the problem in '08 was twofold: the possibility of electing a a Democratic president, AND the on going war in the Middle East. The fracus over there was causing the use of lots of ammunition which made components scarce.

35W

Yotecallr
March 9, 2012, 11:52 AM
Well, you still can't buy new IMI 223 brass because of the situation Israel is facing.

longdayjake
March 9, 2012, 03:08 PM
Okay, I am one of the guys that actually sells this stuff so let me tell you what is going on right now. To be honest, last week I had more orders than I had in three weeks of February. I thought I had stocked up enough stuff to keep me supplied but I am already seeing shortages. Not only that, but I am getting so many orders that me and my help are having a hard time keeping up with shipping. The post office had to get a bigger truck to haul off our stuff.

So, I call all my suppliers to try to get more stuff. Guess what I get? I get "we are busy right now, let us call you back." Usually they call us back within an hour or two. Last time it was 4 days before they called us back and it was only to tell us that they don't have enough stuff to fill my orders. The only good news I got out of this is that I was able to work out a deal to keep stuff in stock but there may be times when we sell out and have to wait for stuff simply because they are selling out so fast. Last week I had almost 50k 220 grain Sierra Match Kings and they were all gone within 3 days. You can try to blame us suppliers but the truth is customers are freaking out and we are just trying to keep up. One thing I know for sure. ALL of my suppliers are threatening to raise their prices. Graffs is just telling you to get your orders in before prices go up. Cause they will.

wkumatt
March 9, 2012, 03:47 PM
I was in my favorite LGS today fondling yet another CZ when the big brown truck showed up. Four guys took about 15 minutes to bring it all inside. There were four other guys in the shop and when the Tula bulk .223 came out they bought it all. The first guy glimpses it in the box and asks a price. When he gets it he buys 2k. That starts the conversation about impending shortages and the other 3 guys immediately buy 1k each.
Shop owner says that's all he got for that shipment. That stuff never even made it to the shelf! As far as I heard none of those guys were even in there to buy ammo. So I guess with all I'm hearing SGAmmo will get my order today.

Sent from my PB99400 using Tapatalk

cougar1717
March 9, 2012, 07:28 PM
This cycle is just making me sick. Uncertainty > Fear > Panic > Hoarding > Inflated prices > Supply catches up > Demand drops > Bargain basement prices > 2-1/2 years of Apathy.

IMHO - why don't we just convince our neighbors to vote republican and then just not worry about it? :)

r0ttie1
March 9, 2012, 08:01 PM
Thinking back, the problem in '08 was twofold: the possibility of electing a a Democratic president, AND the on going war in the Middle East. The fracus over there was causing the use of lots of ammunition which made components scarce.

35W

And the difference now is?

cvo
March 9, 2012, 08:10 PM
No shortage here.

helotaxi
March 9, 2012, 08:19 PM
In late '08 early '09 as well, some of the ammo manufacturers had just laid off employees because of a lull in sales when the panic buying began. They had to rehire, re-vet for FFLs and then fill a huge order for Uncle Sugar to resupply the war effort.

Well now we're out(ish) of Iraq and drawing down in Afg., the gun business has really been booming for the last 4 years so no layoffs leading into this year's election, BUT more people have gotten into shooting and reloading in the last couple of years so there's a large consumer base that's worried about what the future may hold. Factor in that the economy is in even worse shape than 4 years ago and the possibility of a major economic collapse is very real thanks to the Fed simply trying to print more money to cover the run-away federal spending...

preaction
March 9, 2012, 09:39 PM
The last gun show here, oaks pennsylvainna, the opening at 9am the line was about 200 yards long. We came out after 3 1/2 hours and the line to get in was twice as long. This is just outside of philadelphia. This is in responce to post #10, sorry.

Redneck with a 40
March 10, 2012, 12:55 AM
I'm sure glad I ordered another 1000 component bullets for .223, back in December, on sale for $68/1000. I've got enough powder to load them all and I have "plenty" of primers. The one thing that will disappear in a flash is .223!

I've got enough loaded ammo and components to carry me for about 1.5 years, 40 S&W, 9mm, .223, and .308.

All of this will look completely idiotic when a Republican gets into the White House. All that panic in 2008 and what has Obama done to restrict guns?! Nothing!!

longdayjake
March 10, 2012, 12:29 PM
All that panic in 2008 and what has Obama done to restrict guns?! Nothing!!

I think the problem is that nobody can predict what he will do. I mean who would have guessed that he would double the national debt in one term? He seems pretty determined to do everything that his political ideology desires and the rest of the country be damned.

Damon555
March 10, 2012, 01:37 PM
This cycle is just making me sick. Uncertainty > Fear > Panic > Hoarding > Inflated prices > Supply catches up > Demand drops > Bargain basement prices > 2-1/2 years of Apathy

Prices never came down....yeah, you don't see $75 per K primers anymore but paying $32 per K is still hard to swallow while I have boxes on my shelf marked $15.99 per K.

I always keep plenty of components on hand....My shelves are well stocked and ready for any shortages. I don't do this because of panic buying, I do it to save money by buying in bulk.

This is not very organized right now because I've been loading like crazy so I have plenty of ammo for this summer.

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y234/edlafond/Weapons/IMG_0860.jpg

Oh and my philosophy on presidents is this.....The first term is nothing too crazy because they need to get reelected....But the second term is when they can put all of their radical legislation in place because getting reelected is not going to happen.

Fishslayer
March 10, 2012, 01:44 PM
I think the rush has been on for a while. Firearms were a big item last Christmas and the female population has been buying them up in the last year or two way over the norm.

Guns are popular and are getting more popular. I kind of think it is a good thing.

I'm pretty sure a lot of those new gun owners are finding out what we've known all along. Recreational shooting is FUN!:D

evan price
March 10, 2012, 02:00 PM
Learn to reload and cast and stock your supplies deep now. That way you avoid the panic buying and the shortages. Choose components with a wide and varied usefulness. a pair of 8# powder jugs can load many many thousands of rounds. A couple cases of primers and a bucket of brass and a few bricks of lead will keep you shooting pistol for years to come.

R.W.Dale
March 10, 2012, 02:04 PM
Will shooters continue to believe the sky is falling if a different gun banning leftist liberal gets elected in November.

Probably not because even as gun owners for the largest part that R or D is all we see.

See the sig line.

posted via mobile device.

Neutered10mm
March 10, 2012, 04:38 PM
This brings up a good opportunity to discuss powder choice. While some 'fast' and 'unforgiving' powders are more dangerous if your scale is off or if you don't weigh each round, but they sure do stretch your dollar. This coming from a guy with a recent kB in my Glock with a reload, but I have identified the cause of my failure and ensured it won't happen again. I'm reloading .40 S&W and use a mere 4.5 grains of Hodgon's Titegroup with Rainier 165 gr bullets. This equates to being able to load 1550 rounds of .40 S&W per pound of powder! I just placed an order with Missouri Bullets to test them out since I took the kB as an opportunity to get a M&P 40 so I can now do lead reloads and save even more.

W.E.G.
March 10, 2012, 04:53 PM
I'm not sure why people post pics of their hazmat inventory.

You might want to read the fire code.

Striker Fired
March 10, 2012, 07:31 PM
I'd say a good part of this "panic" buying and shortages are due to the "end of the worlders" or "preppers". So many tv shows are preaching this or supporting the behavior,that it is causing alot of new gun buyers to buy huge quantities "just in case". Add to that now eveyone is going to place huge orders ,if the mfg's are having trouble keeping up already,this mass buying will CAUSE the shortages.

bds
March 11, 2012, 05:20 AM
This coming from a guy with a recent kB in my Glock with a reload, but I have identified the cause of my failure and ensured it won't happen again. I'm reloading .40 S&W and use a mere 4.5 grains of Hodgon's Titegroup with Rainier 165 gr bullets ... I just placed an order with Missouri Bullets to test them out since I took the kB as an opportunity to get a M&P 40 so I can now do lead reloads and save even more.
Nice going on the M&P40 and Missouri Bullet.

But you really should try W231/HP-38 for 40S&W that's more forgiving pressure wise. 180 gr lead TCFP and 3.8-4.1 gr of W231/HP-38 works very well in my M&P40. Hate to have you start another KB thread titled ... "Well, guess what happened with my M&P40 and Titegroup ... " :eek:

Be safe but have fun!


OK, back to OP. As to reloading components, I am good for about 5+ years in pistol/rifle. I'll buy some more components at the next gun show if the prices are not too bad and plan on ordering some more online with the tax refund.

Redneck with a 40
March 11, 2012, 01:38 PM
I just took an inventory of what I have:

1000 rounds of .233 loaded and ready to go.

Enough components, powder, primers, bullets and brass to load 1000 more.

About 1500 rounds of 9mm, half of it reloads.

1400 rounds of 40 S&W, all reloads. I only need bullets to load 1000 more.

300 rounds of .308 loaded and enough components to load 500 more.

2500 rounds of .22 LR

500 rounds of 22 mag

2000 rounds of 7.62x39 for the SKS

9 lbs of .308 and 223 powder

9 lbs of pistol powder

5K of small rifle primers

4K of large rifle primers

7K of small pistol primers

I'm swimming in brass for everything!

There won't be any shortage here! Go ahead with the panic buy, have at it!:neener:

Walkalong
March 11, 2012, 01:54 PM
I bought 2K primers and a pound of powder at the gun show yesterday. At 3:00 PM he still had plenty of both.

Will there be shortages again this year? Probably, as the makers have just caught up, and there will be a little more panic buying, plus all the new reloaders in the last 3 years, etc.

Will it be as bad as last time? I seriously doubt it.

CraigC
March 11, 2012, 02:25 PM
Yep, as usual, the stupid hoarders will ruin it for everybody. Sorry but I refuse to give in to Chicken Little thinking. It's sad when shooters can't find supplies because a handful of idiots have bought everything, thinking the world is about to end. Don't be part of the problem.

Nico Testosteros
March 11, 2012, 02:43 PM
Surely with the drawdown in Iraq there is a lessened demand for ammo by the government and more availability of resources for the civilian market?

R.W.Dale
March 11, 2012, 02:48 PM
Yep, as usual, the stupid hoarders will ruin it for everybody. Sorry but I refuse to give in to Chicken Little thinking. It's sad when shooters can't find supplies because a handful of idiots have bought everything, thinking the world is about to end. Don't be part of the problem.

Look on the bright side though. When you run across a craiigslist ad that turns out to have thousands of primers unopened for half what they cost new and 8lb keg after keg of powder that's usually brought to you by a hoarder. A dead one anyway that the widow wants to turn his man cave into a sewing room.

posted via mobile device.

USSR
March 11, 2012, 03:27 PM
Look on the bright side though. When you run across a craiigslist ad that turns out to have thousands of primers unopened for half what they cost new...

Seriously? You think people are going to be selling 1,000 primers for $8? You guys criticizing the guys who bought their primers for $16, can feel morally superior all you want when you pay 2 or 3 times that much. Oh, that's right, no taking yourself into account for your lack of foresight, blame your situation on somebody else.:rolleyes:

Don

CraigC
March 11, 2012, 03:36 PM
...blame your situation on somebody else.
If the shoe fits. When I couldn't find components or even .22LR ammo around the last election, it was somebody else's fault. I don't have the time, money, inclination or space to go grabbing up every possible component I'll need for two years just because every Chicken Little in the land thinks the sky is falling. Four years ago, I was shooting 2000-3000rds of .22LR a month. So no, I didn't have $1500-$2000 to spend on .22LR ammo. Like gas, food and every other damn thing, I buy what I need when I need it. The hoarders hurt everybody. Greed at its finest.

R.W.Dale
March 11, 2012, 03:39 PM
Seriously? You think people are going to be selling 1,000 primers for $8? You guys criticizing the guys who bought their primers for $16, can feel morally superior all you want when you pay 2 or 3 times that much. Oh, that's right, no taking yourself into account for your lack of foresight, blame your situation on somebody else.:rolleyes:

Don

No offense but what the hell are you ranting about?

I just made a joke that hoardes have a tendancy to become someone else's great deal once their owner dies and the world didn't come to an end. Will you have any input on what your primers will get sold for after you pass on?

Or will your stuff go into a big box and taken to the LGS by your widow who's going to ask "what will you give me for this STUFF"

ETA I'm still shooting off the dead mans primer score I made a couple years back $30 for 3000+ federals I believe it was

posted via mobile device.

Old krow
March 11, 2012, 03:44 PM
IMHO - why don't we just convince our neighbors to vote republican and then just not worry about it?

See R.W.Dale's sig line. As as alternative, maybe we should just vote for someone that IS actually friendly to the 2nd.

Like gas, food and every other damn thing, I buy what I need when I need it.

Nobody out there actually advocate living paycheck to paycheck. I fail to see why buying what you need before you actually need it is any more unwise than keeping next months rent/mortgage payment in the bank ready. I'm not going to live paycheck to paycheck anymore than I'm going to save for my retirement when I retire.

You obviously don't have a hurricane kit. :)

If you enjoyed reading about "Expect Ammo and Component Shortages" here in TheHighRoad.org archive, you'll LOVE our community. Come join TheHighRoad.org today for the full version!