Projected Corn Shortage and Hunting


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Certaindeaf
July 18, 2012, 01:24 PM
With the recent drought, corn prices/projections and futures have skyrocketed.
All meat prices, beef particularly, is going to go through the roof for who knows how long. Indeed, prices of most anything (from tires to gasoline - ethanol related) are going to increase.
I predict that the country will be hunted and fished harder than in a long time, out of necessity.
What are your plans given the above? Stocking up on tags etc? Buying a new freezer?
Good luck to us all.

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Tim the student
July 18, 2012, 02:06 PM
BAU for me. Buying most of it, and stocking the freezer for the rest.

Art Eatman
July 18, 2012, 03:52 PM
I imagine there will be plenty of "deer corn", but it will cost a good bit more than last season.

Nico Testosteros
July 18, 2012, 05:23 PM
The sad thing is the drought the rest of the country is having (we had ours last year in Texas) will decrease the deer populations next year.
But harvesting them this fall will allow better quality deer, if fewer in number.

Rembrandt
July 18, 2012, 06:43 PM
I generally get around six deer tags a year and usually fill two.....this year they will all be filled for meat in the freezer. Store bought meat is getting too high.

The higher price for corn will result in someone doing without.....exports, ethanol plants, or livestock feed. My guess is the export market will come up short because of the strong demand in this country.

jmr40
July 18, 2012, 08:50 PM
I doubt if most of us will notice much difference. A bag of Frito's may be 10 cents more. There have been shortages of every crop ever planted since the beginning of recorded history. This year it is corn, last year it was tomatoes, next year it will be something else. What it really means is that farmers in one part of the county will lose money this year, others in another part of the country that have a good crop will make a fortune. The cycle of life will continue just as it has in the past.

Art Eatman
July 18, 2012, 09:02 PM
jmr40, next time you're in a grocery store, check how many products use corn syrup. The price of dairy products and all meats will rise, as well.

oneounceload
July 18, 2012, 09:07 PM
Not just corn syrup, but corn products of all types are found in about 80% of grocery store products, even if it is just packaging, or flavoring

LeonCarr
July 18, 2012, 09:08 PM
On the 120 acres I hunt in East Texas we had more rain in the month of March 2012 than we had in all of 2011. We have had 2-4 inches of rain every month this year. I feel for the rest of the country, but as mentioned we had our drought last year. It is nice to plant food plots that actually grow.

If there is a corn shortage as far as wildlife feeding/hunting goes then more people will be feeding (where legal) certain parts of the year instead of year round, or setting their automated feeders to feed shorter durations.

Just my .02,
LeonCarr

Fat_46
July 18, 2012, 09:29 PM
Its not just the corn supply and prices that will have a detrimental effect on the price of meat, beef in particular. In mid-June I was at the ranch where I spend my annual Father's Day Prairie Dog shoot and got to talk to a bunch of ranchers at a Bronc ride. They were all complaining about the drought, and how they couldn't remember the last year they had to start buying hay in June.

Higher feed cost, both forage and processed, has to be made up somewhere.

As for more participation in hunting as a correlation? I don't know. However, I wouldn't expect folks unaccustomed to eating wild game to suddenly gain a taste for it strictly for cost reasons. But of course, I've been wrong before...just ask my wife!

hogshead
July 18, 2012, 09:43 PM
Last year the drought in Texas drove beef prices higher than ever and they still haven't come down. So I guess they will get even higher.
The main factor driving corn prices so high is ethanol. I read a article that said it took 1.6 gallons of fossil fuel to produce a gallon of ethanol. Then they put in gas reducing mileage and ruining small engine carburetors.
In answer the ops post yes I plan to eat more deer . I usually just keep the back straps but I plan on keeping the hams for barbeque. My wife has a great recipe for it.

Rembrandt
July 18, 2012, 10:17 PM
Portraying ethanol as the sole problem isn't completely accurate.....after the ethanol is extracted a by-product DDGS (Dried Distillers Grains with Solubles) is used for livestock feed. It's a high nutrient feed used by the livestock industry. When ethanol plants make ethanol, they use only starch from corn and grain sorghum. The remaining nutrients - protein, fiber and oil - are the by-products used to create livestock feed.

A third of the grain that goes into ethanol production comes out as DDGS. Each bushel of grain used in the ethanol-making process produces 2.7 gallons of ethanol; 18 pounds of DDGS and 18 pounds of carbon dioxide.

wyohome
July 18, 2012, 10:18 PM
Is that legal, hogshead? We have to take all edible meat here.

hogshead
July 18, 2012, 10:33 PM
I give what I dont want to my neighbors. They eat anything and most of the time they skin it to.

Certaindeaf
July 18, 2012, 10:45 PM
I intend to do a bit more hunting and fishing than normal in the coming year.. I have access to my neighbors extra freezer. Good neighbors are nice.
The garden (about 40x40) got planted pretty heavy this year. Here in my part of Oregon, no drought but way too much rain.. kinda peaked and sickly but some stuff is coming on. Plan to plant some winter stuff which I rarely do.
Might get some chickens.. they can always eat garden and or whatall scraps in addition to normal feed. Id get a wiener pig but..
Anyway, only time will tell in the long run. Im not really worried about it but thought Id throw that out there.

Nico Testosteros
July 18, 2012, 10:50 PM
Don't get me started about how my freezer went out earlier this year. I about cried throwing all that eat out.

countertop
July 18, 2012, 10:51 PM
With the recent drought, corn prices/projections and futures have skyrocketed.
All meat prices, beef particularly, is going to go through the roof for who knows how long. Indeed, prices of most anything (from tires to gasoline - ethanol related) are going to increase.
I predict that the country will be hunted and fished harder than in a long time, out of necessity.
What are your plans given the above? Stocking up on tags etc? Buying a new freezer?
Good luck to us all.

Meat prices are going to come down in the short term. Expect them to skyrocket (to insane levels) next year as the herds are decimated this year. Packers are processing as many as possible right now.

Ethanol has no impact on the price of gasoline. Rather, gasoline (oil) impacts the price of corn. Unless Obama cuts the ethanol mandate (good luck with that) the nation will put a priority on burning corn for ethanol rather than food.

Its an asinine policy. And will make this disaster that much worse.

Certaindeaf
July 18, 2012, 10:53 PM
Meat prices are going to come down in the short term..
This is true. They are liquidating stock now.. flooding the market.

Rembrandt
July 18, 2012, 10:56 PM
The main factor driving corn prices so high is ethanol. I read a article that said it took 1.6 gallons of fossil fuel to produce a gallon of ethanol.

Afraid that number doesn't add up........one bushel of corn produces 2.7 gallons of ethanol, if it takes 1.6 gallons of fossil fuel to make a gallon, then that 2.7 gallons of ethanol takes 4.32 gallons of fuel to produce. At $3.00 a gallon for fuel (that's cheap), it would take $12.96 in fuel to produce one bushel of corn. Unless corn prices double, there's no way.

Robert
July 18, 2012, 11:00 PM
Ok let's not turn this into "What it take to make Ethonal" thread. That is not really on topic for THR, even if it does come up in a thread. Take it to pm if you like.

I hope to fill my Cow tag this fall, Elk of course.

DefiantDad
July 18, 2012, 11:02 PM
So, allow me to ask, ranchers are going to liquidate cattle because they expect the feed to either be unavailable or super expensive, going into next year, so we should expect short term lower beef prices.

Do I understand that correctly?

jbkebert
July 18, 2012, 11:07 PM
We will do what we always do.

We buy a steer for butcher every year and have it processed. I buy a 1100 to 1200# red or black angus farm raised no steroids or any of that crap. Processed it runs on average 2.93 a pound of meat. So in the end you get steaks, ribs, brisket, roast for less than the price of budget hamburger per pound.

We will also do a 200 to 250# hog same type of deal. Its a fair amount of money up front but far cheaper than the supermarket. We just buy all our meat once a year. To supplement we'll take 3 deer or so maybe 4 and a feral hog or two. My family of 6 eats alot of meat and we do it as cost effective as we can.

Certaindeaf
July 18, 2012, 11:10 PM
Ok let's not turn this into "What it take to make Ethonal" thread. That is not really on topic for THR, even if it does come up in a thread. Take it to pm if you like.

I hope to fill my Cow tag this fall, Elk of course.
Ditto. Ethanol is but a small part of the pie that corn makes.. let's not fixate upon minutiae though it all adds up to the whole. Perhaps I'll edit my original post so people don't worry that bone so much.. never know.

Good luck on getting that slow elk, (ha! channeling Hayduke) Robert.

kbbailey
July 18, 2012, 11:21 PM
So, allow me to ask, ranchers are going to liquidate cattle because they expect the feed to either be unavailable or super expensive, going into next year, so we should expect short term lower beef prices.

Do I understand that correctly?
I believe you are correct.
We typically market around 175000-200000 bushels/yr. of #2 yellow corn. We are expecting our corn crop to be a total loss. We have received less than 1 inch of rain since May 1, and many days of 100+ degree days

DefiantDad
July 18, 2012, 11:24 PM
I feel your pain, I really do. I see things like this on the news, every week, every day.

These are terrible times we live in. I don't want to talk too much about SHTF because everyone has their own views on it.

snakeman
July 18, 2012, 11:40 PM
actually with the corn shortage, beef prices will be low for the time being. It costs too much for feed lots to feed them corn and this results in a lower demand for feeder calves. However, once people have sold what they are going to sell, prices will go back up. I sold two calves this week and the price was lower than it had been due to the rise in corn prices. That said, good luck buying deer corn. Personally, I will be trying to feed dry distillers grain to deer. If not then I'll plant wheat or barley soon. Where I live some of the cotton isn't even coming up and what's not irrigated is all dying.

DefiantDad
July 18, 2012, 11:50 PM
There's really no need to be condescending.. it's not like tomatoes or coffee.
I apologize if any of my message came across as condescending. I don't understand why you interpret it that way, but in any case I intended none of that. I was just expressing my empathy for what is going on across the country, generally, and more specifically for kbbailey who said that he expects total loss for his crop. I don't understand why I am not supposed to feel sympathy for that but it might be a shortcoming of how I express myself on messages. Again, apologies for any negativity that came across.

Certaindeaf
July 18, 2012, 11:53 PM
^
Well I apologize then too.

DefiantDad
July 19, 2012, 12:01 AM
No worries.

Art Eatman
July 19, 2012, 10:03 AM
Summary: Corn shortages and the resultant prices affect hunters as well as both producers and home-consumers.

It has been guessed that higher meat prices can lead to more hunting for meat purposes.

Let's stay with the latter, okay? :)

snakeman
July 19, 2012, 12:14 PM
At this point in time the grain shortage will mean suffering for everyone, including deer. The low prices of cattle right now coupled with the high prices of store bought meats will lead to more game meat withheld by hunters.

der Teufel
July 19, 2012, 12:34 PM
I agree that beef prices are headed lower in the near term and then higher, but I'm not sure that it will cause a noticeable increase in hunting. Those who live on or near their hunting place might do a little more, but in my case I have to drive ~150 miles round-trip. Even at $3.20/gallon for gas I pay close to $25 each trip. I only hunt hogs, but I guess I'm not a very good hunter because I frequently return empty-handed. My success rate is typically less than 20%, meaning that I spend $125-150 for every hog I shoot. If I get 40 pounds of meat I effectively pay around $3.50/Lb. just in fuel costs for the privilege of shooting and processing my own meat. That's not really too bad for free-range meat, but I don't always get a large hog. I shot a little one a couple of months ago that weighed less than 30 pounds before I even started to dress it out.

In other words, I hunt because i enjoy it, not because it's a profit-making enterprise. Someone who's more successful might have a better return, but I personally can't justify more hunting activity based on economics.

inclinebench
July 19, 2012, 01:10 PM
I am interested to see what the corn prices do to illegal hunters here in Virginia. In Virginia, it is against the law to put out food for deer. I am not looking to debate this, as I dont really care. However, that being said, plenty of people bait the deer before and during season. This year it could be different if the price of "deer corn" gets too high.

jmorris
July 19, 2012, 01:35 PM
I predict that the country will be hunted and fished harder than in a long time, out of necessity. I predict that there will be a lot of guys that will try and convince their wife that they need a $30,000 boat, $50,000 truck, $3500 trailer to haul the $10,000 UTV out to the $1800/year lease, so they can meet the needs of the family.

MtnCreek
July 19, 2012, 01:37 PM
Personally, I will be trying to feed dry distillers grain to deer.
Drunk deer?

jmorris
July 19, 2012, 01:47 PM
So, allow me to ask, ranchers are going to liquidate cattle because they expect the feed to either be unavailable or super expensive, going into next year, We almost sold a lot of our herd last year because we didn't have much hay last year and feeding them hay that rocketed to $180 a bale would not have been reasonable. Good thing our winter, more or less, didn't exist. Had it been like the year before they would have been sold.

In any case "feed" like corn is really only a concern to folks that run feed lots. A rancher lets his cattle walk around and eat what they want only providing supplements like mineral and salt blocks.

Certaindeaf
July 19, 2012, 02:09 PM
I predict that there will be a lot of guys that will try and convince their wife that they need a $30,000 boat, $50,000 truck, $3500 trailer to haul the $10,000 UTV out to the $1800/year lease, so they can meet the needs of the family.
I understand this likelihood/propensity. To pull a salmon out of the water costs around $300 all told (normalized/averaged).. but then again, a guy can wing a line into the water in his spare time and get some pan fish. never know. As I said, only time will tell the full story. perhaps. good luck

Certaindeaf
July 19, 2012, 02:15 PM
.$180 a bale..
Dear heavens to Betsy say what? Holy cow

doorman
July 19, 2012, 02:49 PM
jmorris, remember this from a few years ago?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYbl29zeRyc

Certaindeaf
July 19, 2012, 02:52 PM
^
Lolz. He best shoot him an extry deer!

Rembrandt
July 19, 2012, 04:51 PM
.....I predict that there will be a lot of guys that will try and convince their wife that they need a $30,000 boat, $50,000 truck, $3500 trailer to haul the $10,000 UTV out to the $1800/year lease, so they can meet the needs of the family.


Good grief man, you forgot the new gun, bow, reloading equipment, new camo clothing, game cameras, and ammo!

DefiantDad
July 19, 2012, 05:07 PM
LOL

MCgunner
July 20, 2012, 08:56 PM
All I need is enough corn to bait my hog trap. There is no shortage of hogs around here, none at all. :D There's no season or rules, either, but I don't trap in the heat 'cause I can't check my trap every morning. I reckon I'll put the feeder out, too, though. I don't think it's going to get THAT bad.

MCgunner
July 20, 2012, 09:00 PM
Oh, BTW, chicken breasts are cheap at HEB. :D And, hopefully, the price of DiGiorno Pizza won't go up too much.

Wonder how the price of corn will affect Blue Bell ice cream and Shiner Beer?

splattergun
July 22, 2012, 12:25 PM
I'll face consumer price increases and shortages the way I always have. Pay the higher price and grumble.

The deer I hunt will face the corn shortage in a similar manner; they'll walk the 4 miles down the mountain to the nearest planted field and raid the farm. That's about as close as it gets to feeding deer store-bought corn as I care to get.

Loyalist Dave
July 24, 2012, 09:19 AM
I imagine there will be plenty of "deer corn", but it will cost a good bit more than last season.

Actually out here in Maryland, when we had a serous drought a few years back, the corn crop failed, and most of the farmers simply left it standing, and then disc'd it under. The deer had a huge supply of corn, and those of us who had access to areas that the deer used to get into or out of the corn fields had very good harvests and very good meat.

So it all depends on the farming practises if the crop fails, and how much of the crop forms before it dies, I suppose, regarding the impact on the wildlife.

Here in Maryland we have been lucky this year, in that we have had a series of storms drop large amounts of rain when we really needed it. My family farming property in Southern IL, isn't doing very well.

LD

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